Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675111 times)

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23128
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3850 on: September 14, 2020, 07:45:35 AM »
Man, it's like we're living in a parallel universe sometimes.  Virus, what virus??

Didn't you hear?  We got bored of Coronavirus, so it doesn't exist any more.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3851 on: September 14, 2020, 07:51:15 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

ctuser1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1741
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3852 on: September 14, 2020, 08:34:01 AM »
A good essay for our Aussie friends.  By HD Thoreau

https://www.ibiblio.org/ebooks/Thoreau/Civil%20Disobedience.pdf

You made me nostalgic.

I read this one a looooooooong time ago (20 years ago) as a slim paperback. I went looking for that book and could not find it. I must have lost it. :-(

Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Nice police state y'all got there.  So when do you plan on moving?

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3853 on: September 14, 2020, 08:44:36 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 08:47:41 AM by Bloop Bloop »

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3854 on: September 14, 2020, 08:59:47 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
Here's a report of a small study of competive college student athletes who recovered from mild or asymptomatic Covid-19, showing 15% of them had heart damage.

Shane

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1665
  • Location: Midtown
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3855 on: September 14, 2020, 09:05:27 AM »
Recently, a friend of a friend lost their 20 something year old son in a car crash. The family was surprised to receive their son's death certificate listing the cause of death as Covid-19. The parents complained and asked to have the death certificate changed, but the hospital is refusing. Apparently, the man tested positive for Covid at the ER, before he died. Hospital says they're following their policies and procedures... wtf?

the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3856 on: September 14, 2020, 09:25:14 AM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3857 on: September 14, 2020, 09:39:11 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
Here's a report of a small study of competive college student athletes who recovered from mild or asymptomatic Covid-19, showing 15% of them had heart damage.

Is there a link I'm missing?

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3858 on: September 14, 2020, 09:41:49 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
Here's a report of a small study of competive college student athletes who recovered from mild or asymptomatic Covid-19, showing 15% of them had heart damage.

Is there a link I'm missing?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-11/heart-injury-after-covid-spurs-call-to-screen-college-athletes

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770645

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5653
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3859 on: September 14, 2020, 10:50:34 AM »
Myocarditis almost always resolves itself in a few months, though it would be annoying if you were in the middle of your sport's season, since you have to lay off max effort exercise for a while.

Spinning this as "heart damage" is a bit misleading. It's not good, but it's also not uncommon after lots of viral infections, and it's almost always something that resolves on it's own. I have personally had it, so I know quite a bit about it.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.118.313578#:~:text=All%20patients%20with%20acute%20myocarditis,failure%20and%20arrhythmias%2C%20if%20applicable.&text=In%20addition%2C%203%20to%206,of%20remodeling%20and%20sudden%20death.

-W

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3860 on: September 14, 2020, 01:19:17 PM »

I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.
[/quote]

+1 on the eye roll.

Stupid people are going to do stupid things. There is no lack of messaging to encourage people to wear masks and socially distance. Because if you don’t you or someone you care about might get very sick or die. That’s a pretty simple message. Yet some people are going to disregard the message regardless.

Changing out one unworthy for another unworthy in November isn’t going to result in some sudden increase in the average IQ or or a renaissance of common sense. WYSIWYG.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3861 on: September 14, 2020, 02:48:45 PM »

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.



Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3862 on: September 14, 2020, 02:53:59 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3863 on: September 14, 2020, 03:27:07 PM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.

Eye Roll? Really? Grow up.

You obviously have something eating at your mind that I was not implying.

People see how leaders and businesses are acting and I can not blame them for say hell with it if they can get away with it so can I. Not sure why you need to turn that into a political statement?

For example - a large racetrack here in Colorado blatantly broke the rules that were in place by holding a large race with thousands of fans. So they can have thousands of people and get away with it that says something.

Another example - local coaches were still holding group practices against the rules while the fields and playgrounds were shutdown. So they can hold group practice with 30+ high school kids but a family cannot go shoot hoops or let their kid play in the field? See how people could get frustrated and say F it?

How about the bars / restaurants that opened despite the shutdown?

How about Sturgis?

How about the political rallies?

From the top to the bottom people are seeing this and many are saying to hell with it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ctuser1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1741
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3864 on: September 14, 2020, 03:36:32 PM »
From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

I'm pretty sure wealth plays a big role. I'd also be considered in the upper middle class and don't remember my liberties ever being curtailed. Even so, Khruschev's quote is only partially accurate for the US!! Cite: someone who looks like Henry Louis Gates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy) likely can't take it for granted that the police state will leave them alone, while his colleagues at Harvard with a different set of physical features likely can!!

But then, we can do better than just anecdotal evidences. Look at the "Civil Liberties" score of Australia vs. US in the Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#cite_note-index2012-2.


Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3865 on: September 14, 2020, 03:42:38 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

Then you have a misunderstanding of the fundamental values of Americans. We don't do what we're told. A lot of people I see do the opposite of what they should just because "freedom."

For the record, I didn't say that it was because of IQ. People are idiots everywhere, as far as I can tell.

Mask wearing has clearly become politicized. Just like every other politicized issue, most people who identify with a party will agree with the party position. Those people might believe they think for themselves and make their own decisions, but most of them are wrong. If the issue hadn't been politicized, they would have had the opportunity to make their own decision.

The stupid part was in response to Boris.

Anette

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 290
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3866 on: September 14, 2020, 05:07:29 PM »
Myocarditis almost always resolves itself in a few months, though it would be annoying if you were in the middle of your sport's season, since you have to lay off max effort exercise for a while.

Spinning this as "heart damage" is a bit misleading. It's not good, but it's also not uncommon after lots of viral infections, and it's almost always something that resolves on it's own. I have personally had it, so I know quite a bit about it.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.118.313578#:~:text=All%20patients%20with%20acute%20myocarditis,failure%20and%20arrhythmias%2C%20if%20applicable.&text=In%20addition%2C%203%20to%206,of%20remodeling%20and%20sudden%20death.

-W

Yes!
But the Media is not going to tell you this because they are among the ones who blew this thing up out of proportion.

ReadySetMillionaire

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1688
  • Location: The Buckeye State
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3867 on: September 14, 2020, 05:20:34 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-11/heart-injury-after-covid-spurs-call-to-screen-college-athletes

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770645

In the age of misinformation, these studies top the list. They surfaced on Twitter in large part due to the Big Ten cancelling football. Doctors and cardiologists from all over called the studies unreliable due to (a) not having a control arm, (b) subjectivity of imaging, (c) extremely small sample size, (d) likelihood that elite athletes have cardiovascular irregularities in the first place. The study itself calls out its own shortcomings:

Quote
Study limitations include lack of baseline CMR imaging and variable timing of CMR imaging from a positive COVID-19 test result. Athletic cardiac adaptation could be responsible for these abnormalities; however, in this cohort, mean (SD) T2 in those with suspected myocarditis was 59 (3) milliseconds vs 51 (2) milliseconds in those without, favoring pathology. Additionally, the rate of LGE (42%) is higher than in previously described normative populations. To conclude, while long-term follow-up and large studies including control populations are required to understand CMR changes in competitive athletes, CMR may provide an excellent risk-stratification assessment for myocarditis in athletes who have recovered from COVID-19 to guide safe competitive sports participation.

Several professors/physicians within the conference are presenting data to the Big Ten Conference perhaps as we speak discussing why these types of studies are completely unreliable; and it is part of the reason the Big Ten is likely to reverse course and re-implement football.

***

It is the constant red siren referencing to these types of alarmist studies -- similar to the *one* dude out of Hong Kong who got reinfected -- that will never get us out of this morass. People and government officials seem to be looking for news that confirm their worst COVID fears.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3868 on: September 14, 2020, 06:46:14 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

Then you have a misunderstanding of the fundamental values of Americans. We don't do what we're told. A lot of people I see do the opposite of what they should just because "freedom."

For the record, I didn't say that it was because of IQ. People are idiots everywhere, as far as I can tell.

Mask wearing has clearly become politicized. Just like every other politicized issue, most people who identify with a party will agree with the party position. Those people might believe they think for themselves and make their own decisions, but most of them are wrong. If the issue hadn't been politicized, they would have had the opportunity to make their own decision.

The stupid part was in response to Boris.

Well I’m the first to own up to being stupid. Hell, I have a Ph.d in it. I embrace that lofty mantle!

But more to the point, of course other countries have stupid people. We in the US seem to have the market cornered though on being stupid AND disobedient AND self destructive. So let’s just call it Stupid Cubed  for short.  I should have made that clearer. But what can I say? See above.

Neither You nor I nor all the Kings Men are going change Stupid Cubed. Nor is the person we put in the White House.

mrsnamemustache

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
  • Location: FL
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3869 on: September 14, 2020, 07:07:09 PM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.

Honestly, I think we should be happy that parties like this (appear to be) happening outside. In my opinion, asking 20-something year olds to go a year or longer without going to parties is just not realistic, particularly given the relatively low risks most face. I think it is better to encourage outdoor parties than to act as though all parties are equally bad and no one should go to parties.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3870 on: September 14, 2020, 07:07:48 PM »

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

It's interesting because the incitement laws were never used on the organisers of the Black Lives Matter protest. Or, from the other end of the political spectrum, they weren't used on the organisers and supporters of various abortion clinic protests during non-covid times (those protests are illegal under a different law which bans harassment of women seeking abortions). The incitement laws seem only to be targeted against lockdown protestors.

We have just found out that 25% of yesterday's new caseload can be attributed to 2 migrant family clusters in one suburb. No mention of it in the news other than in one article. No mention of it in daily discussion.

It's kinda time we lay blame where it's due - large/multigenerational family transmission - and stop acting like single people / couples living in non-hotspot suburbs carry equal risk and should therefore bear equal burden.

I just can't believe the messaging that people are happily swallowing.

Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3882
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3871 on: September 14, 2020, 07:22:29 PM »
^Oh, the thinly veiled racism.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3872 on: September 14, 2020, 07:33:01 PM »
It's not racism to state that migrant communities have been having lots of problems with community transmission, and are to blame for a recent hotspot. Our Chief Health Officer just referenced the Afghan migrant community himself:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-covid-19-hotspot-emerges-in-melbourne-s-south-east-20200914-p55vj1.html

Obviously, it's not race per se that's the issue (for the more affluent and more established migrant communities in the inner eastern suburbs have avoided outbreaks); it's lack of language skills and education and large family living groups within certain parts of the migrant community. Me adverting to that is not racism. You trying to paint any reference to race as "racism" shows that you adhere to the view - which unfortunately seems to be the prevailing view - that because we can't make any meaningful distinctions that reference race or class or gender, therefore all members of society must pay an equal price. Which is leading to a lot of non-risky areas getting locked down and a lot of sole traders and hair dressers and restauranteurs suffering a huge amount of harm.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3873 on: September 14, 2020, 07:51:23 PM »

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

It's interesting because the incitement laws were never used on the organisers of the Black Lives Matter protest. Or, from the other end of the political spectrum, they weren't used on the organisers and supporters of various abortion clinic protests during non-covid times (those protests are illegal under a different law which bans harassment of women seeking abortions). The incitement laws seem only to be targeted against lockdown protestors.

We have just found out that 25% of yesterday's new caseload can be attributed to 2 migrant family clusters in one suburb. No mention of it in the news other than in one article. No mention of it in daily discussion.

It's kinda time we lay blame where it's due - large/multigenerational family transmission - and stop acting like single people / couples living in non-hotspot suburbs carry equal risk and should therefore bear equal burden.

I just can't believe the messaging that people are happily swallowing.

Up here the government says spread is increasing because of 'social gatherings'.   I presume this to mean parties.    We're not seeing much if any enforcement - but if you're allowed to have 50 people at an indoor gathering enforcement would be hard anyway.    I mean, who's going to count and see if you have 49 or 51 people at a party to see if they can issue a ticket?


Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3874 on: September 14, 2020, 08:14:05 PM »
From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

I'm pretty sure wealth plays a big role. I'd also be considered in the upper middle class and don't remember my liberties ever being curtailed. Even so, Khruschev's quote is only partially accurate for the US!! Cite: someone who looks like Henry Louis Gates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy) likely can't take it for granted that the police state will leave them alone, while his colleagues at Harvard with a different set of physical features likely can!!

But then, we can do better than just anecdotal evidences. Look at the "Civil Liberties" score of Australia vs. US in the Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#cite_note-index2012-2.

Oh I remember that case in Cambridge. Wealth was obviously a huge factor in Mr. Gates surviving the incident intact. If Mr. Gates had been in a working class neighborhood it may not have ended so well.

As for the Democracy Index and the like, I don’t pay much attention to those indexes as they’re so subjective. What specific freedoms are we talking about? And who is to say which freedom is more important?  I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote. But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.

ctuser1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1741
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3875 on: September 14, 2020, 08:51:30 PM »
As for the Democracy Index and the like, I don’t pay much attention to those indexes as they’re so subjective. What specific freedoms are we talking about? And who is to say which freedom is more important? 
Please feel free to propose alternative quantitative methodologies.


I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote. But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.

Interesting take that free speech is intact in the US!!

It seems to me that a typical American commonly seen in the wild (i.e. the bottom 99%) got a large part of his free speech rights taken away after Citizens United!! The erosion was systemic and not direct in nature, but the effect was the same (if not worse)!! My speech was always going to be less important than Mr. Bezos' (and I have a huge amount of respect for Mr. Bezos), but now even the pretense of equality in the arena of democracy was shredded. Why do you think there is such an angst that the American democracy no longer represent the people??!!

I think we may also disagree on how to "measure" freedom. To me the freedom of the most vulnerable part of the polity is the most important indicator.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3876 on: September 15, 2020, 03:14:14 AM »
From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

I'm pretty sure wealth plays a big role. I'd also be considered in the upper middle class and don't remember my liberties ever being curtailed. Even so, Khruschev's quote is only partially accurate for the US!! Cite: someone who looks like Henry Louis Gates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy) likely can't take it for granted that the police state will leave them alone, while his colleagues at Harvard with a different set of physical features likely can!!

But then, we can do better than just anecdotal evidences. Look at the "Civil Liberties" score of Australia vs. US in the Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#cite_note-index2012-2.

Oh I remember that case in Cambridge. Wealth was obviously a huge factor in Mr. Gates surviving the incident intact. If Mr. Gates had been in a working class neighborhood it may not have ended so well.

As for the Democracy Index and the like, I don’t pay much attention to those indexes as they’re so subjective. What specific freedoms are we talking about? And who is to say which freedom is more important?  I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote. But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3877 on: September 15, 2020, 06:11:49 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3878 on: September 15, 2020, 06:30:34 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.
Then you need to explain your "crummy free speech rights" comment.  Perhaps you could do so in relation to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights as interpreted and guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights?

(Note for the uninformed: Brexit means leaving the EU but not the ECHR, so will not change the obligation of the UK to comply with the ECHR including Article 10.)

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3879 on: September 15, 2020, 07:24:04 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.
Then you need to explain your "crummy free speech rights" comment.  Perhaps you could do so in relation to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights as interpreted and guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights?

(Note for the uninformed: Brexit means leaving the EU but not the ECHR, so will not change the obligation of the UK to comply with the ECHR including Article 10.)

I don't need to explain jack. I didn't make a crummy comment and I really don't have a dog in this fight, other than to point out that you used a straw man argument which you are doubling down on right now.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 07:26:06 AM by StashingAway »

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3880 on: September 15, 2020, 07:32:47 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.
Then you need to explain your "crummy free speech rights" comment.  Perhaps you could do so in relation to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights as interpreted and guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights?

(Note for the uninformed: Brexit means leaving the EU but not the ECHR, so will not change the obligation of the UK to comply with the ECHR including Article 10.)

I don't need to explain jack. I didn't make a crummy comment and I really don't have a dog in this fight, other than to point out that you used a straw man argument which you are doubling down on right now.
I made a request for an explanation of what I consider an unjustified comment.  You may interpret it as a strawman argument if you wish, but the request was not addressed to you so so your deliberate(?) misinterpretation of my request for clarification, followed by refusing to engage with the original question, becomes a failed distraction.  My point remains unanswered: in what respect are UK free speech rights, protected  by the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Court of Human Rights, "crummy"?

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23128
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3881 on: September 15, 2020, 07:44:13 AM »
I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote.

Whether or not you vote, voting practices are very important.  They're the bedrock that a democratic system is built on.  Without them, democracy tends to collapse, and I suspect that many of the freedoms you currently enjoy would be missed once they're gone.


But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.

There are plenty of limits to free speech in the US:
- incitement to suicide
- incitement to immediate violence
- defamation
- perjury
- child pornography
- obscenity
- threatening the president
- intellectual property

Which speech rights in the UK are radically different?

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3882 on: September 15, 2020, 08:46:57 AM »
I made a request for an explanation of what I consider an unjustified comment.  You may interpret it as a strawman argument if you wish, but the request was not addressed to you so so your deliberate(?) misinterpretation of my request for clarification, followed by refusing to engage with the original question, becomes a failed distraction.  My point remains unanswered: in what respect are UK free speech rights, protected  by the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Court of Human Rights, "crummy"?

You did NOT make a reasonable request on good faith. You moved the goalposts. I refused to answer because I don't believe that you are open to any answer I give. Therefore, I am not playing the game. I don't need to "interpret" it as a straw-man. It IS a straw man. Like I said, I don't have to defend anything because the game is rigged. The conversation is bunk. There's no hope for reasonable communication. We're all just floating around on this messy ball of social media, not admitting our own faults somehow thinking that there's going to be some reward for winning an argument (being correct is not the point, the point is to win here).

None of this is being done with an honest attempt to understand each other. So, what's the point? Get going until our collective blood pressure hits escape velocity? Trying to nit pick our way through some policy as though it's going to make a difference? Is anyone going to change their mind? Nah... so why not just throw wrenches at each other?


RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20742
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3883 on: September 15, 2020, 09:13:41 AM »
Some of you are getting way off topic and are derailing the thread way past foam levels.  If you want a discussion on free speech go start a thread.  This thread is basically about covid policy.


frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3884 on: September 15, 2020, 09:25:35 AM »
This thread has been about australia and their covid policy for most of the thread, despite them barely having covid.  The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia. 

Longwaytogo

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3135
  • Age: 43
  • Location: Merryland
  • It is what it is!!
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3885 on: September 15, 2020, 10:08:46 AM »
This thread has been about australia and their covid policy for most of the thread, despite them barely having covid.  The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

True...and more recently Pelosi's hair :D

I don't know my county numbers off hand but my state has 4 times the deaths of Australia.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1311
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3886 on: September 15, 2020, 10:20:10 AM »
The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

Oakland county?  ~ 20 k cases and 1200 deaths, no?   How do you figure 8x?  Last I checked AU has around 30 K cases and approaching 1 K deaths.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:22:34 AM by HBFIRE »

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20742
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3887 on: September 15, 2020, 10:27:34 AM »
This thread has been about australia and their covid policy for most of the thread, despite them barely having covid.  The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

I don't really care which country we talk about as long as we stay on topic.  It should be useful to see how things are working out in different areas based on health actions taken or not taken, but there hasn't been much of that recently.  It should also be useful to discuss support measures to help those worst affected financially, so that health policies and economics don't conflict, but we aren't seeing much of that discussion either.

In a way it is all just hot air, because if we vent here instead of pressuring our political class to be more effective,  based on what is effective elsewhere, nothing will change.


Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3888 on: September 15, 2020, 10:32:27 AM »
Please feel free to propose alternative quantitative methodologies.

Sure. A personal freedom index is more meaningful. As would be the ability to rank specific liberties in priority order. What’s important to me is probably different from the next person. So for example you could have 10 or so metrics such as “Free and fair elections” and “hate speech prohibitions” and “ability to own firearms” and “ability to retain earnings” etc.  And you could rank from 1-10 what is important to you which would calculate the weighting. So in my case free speech issues and ability to retain earnings would be high on the priority list while elections would be very low.

Quote

Interesting take that free speech is intact in the US!!

It seems to me that a typical American commonly seen in the wild (i.e. the bottom 99%) got a large part of his free speech rights taken away after Citizens United!! The erosion was systemic and not direct in nature, but the effect was the same (if not worse)!! My speech was always going to be less important than Mr. Bezos' (and I have a huge amount of respect for Mr. Bezos), but now even the pretense of equality in the arena of democracy was shredded. Why do you think there is such an angst that the American democracy no longer represent the people??!!

I think we may also disagree on how to "measure" freedom. To me the freedom of the most vulnerable part of the polity is the most important indicator.

We do disagree on what’s important. To me Citizens United just wasn’t all that important except for it being a refreshingly honest assessment of how our political system works. No ones rights were “taken away.” The courts simply acknowledged that money talks.  OK. Niki noted that long before Citizens United came about (see quote below). In my view we can choose to gnash our teeth about how that works or acknowledge the truth and work on accumulating our own wealth so that we too have power. I see the latter as a better course of action. YMMV.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3889 on: September 15, 2020, 10:49:51 AM »
We’ve been duly admonished to stick to COVID.

Any new ideas for control of the outbreak beyond what we’re already doing?

frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3890 on: September 15, 2020, 10:54:04 AM »
The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

Oakland county?  ~ 20 k cases and 1200 deaths, no?   How do you figure 8x?  Last I checked AU has around 30 K cases and approaching 1 K deaths.

I was looking at the wrong figure.  Those figures are for my state, not my county. 

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20742
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3891 on: September 15, 2020, 11:01:54 AM »
nothing will change.

FTFY

Not sure why you wrote this?  Lots has changed, here in Canada, Ontario and Ottawa, to zoom in geographically.  We have gone from no masks to total indoor masks, we have figured out how to protect nursing homes, we continue to have priority shopping hours, we are carefully starting school, Ottawa libraries are now circulating actual paper books, we are doing region-based levels of opening.  Lots of us have figured out Zoom.  Lots of us gardened more this year.  Lots of us worked from home this year.  We have mostly not made this political (there are exceptions).

Politicians surprised us, or lived up to expectations.  Doug Ford has done a reasonable job this year, with some blunders, and believe me it was unexpected, at least by me.  Maritime premiers kept their numbers low, despite other difficulties.  Most premiers, and the PM, listened to their health advisers.  Jason Kenny, from what I read, is not being very useful in support of his health system (any Albertans want to comment?).

Our numbers fluctuate (flat well into August, now up a bit), but we have basically coped.

We've managed one provincial election and have another next month.  We expect our elections to be well run, and that expectation hasn't changed.

We had trouble getting PPE from our usual sources (China and the US), more is now being made in Canada.  A more Canadian priority to sourcing will probably continue, since our governments realized our vulnerability.    Both the US and China are now seen as unreliable sources for essential supplies because of political pressures.

So "nothing will change"  isn't accurate overall.  It is accurate if citizens are not happy about things but do nothing. 


RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20742
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3892 on: September 15, 2020, 11:37:02 AM »
Sorry, I was referring to the US.

It's an international discussion, you need to state country where applicable.   ;-)

I hope you are wrong that nothing will change in the US, because from here it looks like you are heading for disaster.  The very fact that people can question that a sitting President would refuse to leave office if he loses the election is extremely troubling.  The handling of the pandemic is troubling.  What happened to the country that tightened it's collective belts and pulled together in WWII?  The focus on individuality and rights has neglected the social community and any focus on responsibility.  I see it here too but to a much lesser degree.  It all makes me feel old and a stranger in a strange land.

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20742
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3893 on: September 15, 2020, 02:57:58 PM »
Sorry, I was referring to the US.

It's an international discussion, you need to state country where applicable.   ;-)

I hope you are wrong that nothing will change in the US, because from here it looks like you are heading for disaster.  The very fact that people can question that a sitting President would refuse to leave office if he loses the election is extremely troubling.  The handling of the pandemic is troubling.  What happened to the country that tightened it's collective belts and pulled together in WWII?  The focus on individuality and rights has neglected the social community and any focus on responsibility.  I see it here too but to a much lesser degree.  It all makes me feel old and a stranger in a strange land.

In fairness, people thought the same thing about President Bush. I think people tend to try too hard to compare Republicans to dictators.

As far as what changed between WWII and now, I can't say with any degree of certainty, simply because I wasn't around in WWII times. Was the nation really that united? Or did the crazies simply not have a platform from which to shout their ideas? If I had to venture a guess, I'd say that mainstream media is probably the biggest culprit in dividing Americans. I don't think other countries have anything quite as absurd as the 24 hour news channels we have.

I was not comparing Trump to Bush.  I was comparing the US attitude to other countries.  The Parliamentary system has it's own issues and faults, but a close election simply means a minority government.  We actually have one now.  It means whoever is PM has to have policies that are supported by another party.  It doesn't mean chaos, or fighting in the media or the streets.

The how to deal with Covid is what was troubling to me.  The political divide has dictated approach.  It is encouraging that some Republican governors seem to be dropping the politics and looking at the medical information.   Of course we have a lot more than before, although we don't have even 4 seasons worth yet.  Our federal and provincial governments are worrying about winter, since given our climate we are inside a lot more in winter, and of course school has started.  No-one has all the answers, we are just trying to figure out best practice as we go.
 
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 03:05:30 PM by RetiredAt63 »

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3894 on: September 15, 2020, 03:29:44 PM »

I was not comparing Trump to Bush.  I was comparing the US attitude to other countries.  The Parliamentary system has it's own issues and faults, but a close election simply means a minority government.  We actually have one now.  It means whoever is PM has to have policies that are supported by another party.  It doesn't mean chaos, or fighting in the media or the streets.

The how to deal with Covid is what was troubling to me.  The political divide has dictated approach.  It is encouraging that some Republican governors seem to be dropping the politics and looking at the medical information.   Of course we have a lot more than before, although we don't have even 4 seasons worth yet.  Our federal and provincial governments are worrying about winter, since given our climate we are inside a lot more in winter, and of course school has started.  No-one has all the answers, we are just trying to figure out best practice as we go.

My question is US based. What steps can we realistically take given the situation? In my view there isn’t much given the practical constraints.

So let’s expand testing!  OK is there even a demand for additional tests? If we run them can the existing labs handle them? So far the answer seems to be NO.

So let’s do more contact tracing! OK. So how is that going to work? We’re assuming that people will provide information about their contacts, and assuming you can find them in the first place. Or that they’ll answer the phone call.  The experience so far a lot of those contacted will refuse to provide who they’ve been in contact with.

So what else is left? Are we going to try another shut down? Mandatory face masks for those who aren’t already wearing them? I’d like to see how that’s going to be enforced.

fuzzy math

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1726
  • Age: 42
  • Location: PNW
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3895 on: September 15, 2020, 05:08:45 PM »

I was not comparing Trump to Bush.  I was comparing the US attitude to other countries.  The Parliamentary system has it's own issues and faults, but a close election simply means a minority government.  We actually have one now.  It means whoever is PM has to have policies that are supported by another party.  It doesn't mean chaos, or fighting in the media or the streets.

The how to deal with Covid is what was troubling to me.  The political divide has dictated approach.  It is encouraging that some Republican governors seem to be dropping the politics and looking at the medical information.   Of course we have a lot more than before, although we don't have even 4 seasons worth yet.  Our federal and provincial governments are worrying about winter, since given our climate we are inside a lot more in winter, and of course school has started.  No-one has all the answers, we are just trying to figure out best practice as we go.

My question is US based. What steps can we realistically take given the situation? In my view there isn’t much given the practical constraints.

So let’s expand testing!  OK is there even a demand for additional tests? If we run them can the existing labs handle them? So far the answer seems to be NO.

So let’s do more contact tracing! OK. So how is that going to work? We’re assuming that people will provide information about their contacts, and assuming you can find them in the first place. Or that they’ll answer the phone call.  The experience so far a lot of those contacted will refuse to provide who they’ve been in contact with.

So what else is left? Are we going to try another shut down? Mandatory face masks for those who aren’t already wearing them? I’d like to see how that’s going to be enforced.


More propaganda. There's always a desire for more of that. More fear, more pitting people against each other. The news was on at work today and as if "anti maskers" wasn't bad enough I heard "half maskers" (ppl who don't cover their nose). OMG. More reminders why my TV is off.

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20742
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3896 on: September 15, 2020, 05:16:02 PM »
If I were religious I would be praying for you.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3897 on: September 15, 2020, 06:03:58 PM »
If I were religious I would be praying for you.

That’s about the best solution I’ve seen so far. We are glued, screwed, and tattooed. By the time our next political messiah comes to power it’ll be mid winter.

At least the chances of surviving once you contract it seem to be improving.

Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3882
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3898 on: September 15, 2020, 08:53:05 PM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3899 on: September 15, 2020, 09:47:13 PM »
Here's the latest data on excess deaths per the CDC. I've only graphed April-July as August data is not mature yet. All age groups >25 have seen statistically significant increase in excess deaths, associated with age. Age <25 had absolutely no difference in mean deaths per week.

Source (which provides time-series graphs): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Mean excess deaths per age group from this time period were:
Age 25-44: 877/2619 = 33% increase
Age 45-64: 2089/10180 = 20% increase
Age 65-74: 2925/9872 = 30% increase
Age 75-84: 3357/12233 = 27% increase
Age 85+   : 3601/15972 = 23% increase

What is interesting is the proportional increase in excess deaths is not wildly different between age groups. Part of this is the artificially wide age groupings (a 45 year old person's risk of death is much lower than a 64 year old's, for example).
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:05:22 PM by Abe »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!