Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675244 times)

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3800 on: September 11, 2020, 06:32:17 AM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).

Is this a valid comparison considering we've had covid restrictions since the beginning of the covid data, and normally just let flu run rampant?

The restrictions don't make covid any less deadly once you catch it

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3801 on: September 11, 2020, 07:07:15 AM »
(Of course, this whole line of questioning also ignores the many, many reported cases of possibly permanent non-fatal damage that coronavirus does do people.)

Can the flu (or other viruses) also cause permanent non fatal damage as well?

Not trying to be facetious; just genuinely asking if anyone knows.

Just for example my Father has permanent lung damage from a bad case of Pneumonia he had in his 40's (65 now)

I found this study of H7N9 patient recovery that seems to indicate a small percentage of people who recover from the flu do have long term health problems from it (largely lung and breathing issues) - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17497-6.  This is very different from the long term neurological symptoms reported by those infected by coronavirus.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3802 on: September 11, 2020, 07:22:52 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3803 on: September 11, 2020, 07:58:14 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3804 on: September 11, 2020, 08:05:09 AM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).

Is this a valid comparison considering we've had covid restrictions since the beginning of the covid data, and normally just let flu run rampant?

The restrictions don't make covid any less deadly once you catch it

But they make it significantly less likely to catch it in the first place, and this comparison isn't using "total infections" to calculate mortality, it's using total population.  Social restrictions results in less total infections which ultimately leads to less deaths.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3805 on: September 11, 2020, 08:05:28 AM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3806 on: September 11, 2020, 08:10:08 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3807 on: September 11, 2020, 08:18:03 AM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3808 on: September 11, 2020, 08:22:13 AM »
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

CFR for 0-9 years is 0%, or close to it. For 10-18, it's in the ballpark of 0.1%. As far as we know so far.

CFR for influenza varies wildly from year to year, and cases aren't as carefully documented (many never encounter the healthcare system). But it's pretty commonly agreed, I think, that it's more dangerous for young kids than 0%. Last year 166 kids died of the flu in the US (https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/04/10/fluupdate041020).

-W




waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3809 on: September 11, 2020, 08:23:52 AM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

I think it's probably safer to be masked up, with everyone being careful, at a school, than randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park. If the kids are going to pass it around, man, they already did it. Months ago.

Seriously, if you don't have kids... you don't know what's been going on. Everyone ran out of patience in May. Keeping schools closed at this point (at least here) is just a waste of everyone's time.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3810 on: September 11, 2020, 08:39:59 AM »
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

CFR for 0-9 years is 0%, or close to it. For 10-18, it's in the ballpark of 0.1%. As far as we know so far.

CFR for influenza varies wildly from year to year, and cases aren't as carefully documented (many never encounter the healthcare system). But it's pretty commonly agreed, I think, that it's more dangerous for young kids than 0%. Last year 166 kids died of the flu in the US (https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/04/10/fluupdate041020).

-W

Can you provide the source you're using for the claim that CFR for 0-9 years is 0%?  Because the data I've been looking at shows that children 0-9 are exposed to the disease at radically lower numbers than the older groups - and thus show far fewer deaths.  I haven't seen a study that was able to use more than a couple hundred children in that age group to determine numbers.

Also, as has been mentioned several times, only looking at fatalities is an incomplete representation of the dangers of this disease.





Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

I think it's probably safer to be masked up, with everyone being careful, at a school, than randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park. If the kids are going to pass it around, man, they already did it. Months ago.

Seriously, if you don't have kids... you don't know what's been going on. Everyone ran out of patience in May. Keeping schools closed at this point (at least here) is just a waste of everyone's time.

-W

An awful lot of us have continued to keep our children away from other kids for this whole pandemic as we were told to by health officials.  My son has certainly not been "randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park", and I'm disappointed to hear that yours was doing this so often you believe it's perfectly acceptable.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3811 on: September 11, 2020, 08:44:39 AM »
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

CFR for 0-9 years is 0%, or close to it. For 10-18, it's in the ballpark of 0.1%. As far as we know so far.

CFR for influenza varies wildly from year to year, and cases aren't as carefully documented (many never encounter the healthcare system). But it's pretty commonly agreed, I think, that it's more dangerous for young kids than 0%. Last year 166 kids died of the flu in the US (https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/04/10/fluupdate041020).

-W

Can you provide the source you're using for the claim that CFR for 0-9 years is 0%?  Because the data I've been looking at shows that children 0-9 are exposed to the disease at radically lower numbers than the older groups - and thus show far fewer deaths.  I haven't seen a study that was able to use more than a couple hundred children in that age group to determine numbers.

Also, as has been mentioned several times, only looking at fatalities is an incomplete representation of the dangers of this disease.





Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

I think it's probably safer to be masked up, with everyone being careful, at a school, than randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park. If the kids are going to pass it around, man, they already did it. Months ago.

Seriously, if you don't have kids... you don't know what's been going on. Everyone ran out of patience in May. Keeping schools closed at this point (at least here) is just a waste of everyone's time.

-W

An awful lot of us have continued to keep our children away from other kids for this whole pandemic as we were told to by health officials.  My son has certainly not been "randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park", and I'm disappointed to hear that yours was doing this so often you believe it's perfectly acceptable.

I linked to the source. You have to scroll down a bit to find the graphic/numbers.

Our community has done just fine with kids doing basically their normal summer - and we were one of the early epicenters of the whole US epidemic! I'm sorry yours didn't get to.

Again, too, keeping kids out of school only means social distancing for wealthy people. For a significant number of kids in our community (and probably yours) the middle class ones just went to daycare of some kind, and the poor ones families just sent 20 kids to hang out together/with abuela in a 2 bedroom apartment. You tell me what's going to spread Covid more...

-W
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 08:47:24 AM by waltworks »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3812 on: September 11, 2020, 09:12:13 AM »
I linked to the source. You have to scroll down a bit to find the graphic/numbers.

The source you linked contains a graphic, but no data.  The chart references this WHO study that was published in February of this year - https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf and this Chinese study also published in February http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 that only examines 400 children in that age group - less than 1% of the total sample size.


Our community has done just fine with kids doing basically their normal summer - and we were one of the early epicenters of the whole US epidemic! I'm sorry yours didn't get to.

Again, too, keeping kids out of school only means social distancing for wealthy people. For a significant number of kids in our community (and probably yours) the middle class ones just went to daycare of some kind, and the poor ones families just sent 20 kids to hang out together/with abuela in a 2 bedroom apartment. You tell me what's going to spread Covid more...

-W

If many adults are too irresponsible to take proper precautions or follow the instructions of health care professionals, their children will contract and spread coronavirus.  On this we agree.  I certainly understand the motive to declare covid perfectly safe for children if you've ignored safety advice regarding your own kids.

We live in a low income area.  Most households are multi-generational in our neighbourhood so keeping the kids at home has actually been easier for them than middle class households as the grandparents have been doing the lion's share of the child care.  Daycares began to open up around here last month - but they were opening at 1/4 capacity and with mandatory mask wearing/social distancing.  Most daycares were unable to fill all the spots even at reduced capacity.  It may be going on, but I certainly haven't seen evidence of 20 kids hanging out together in a 2 bedroom apartment.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3813 on: September 11, 2020, 09:18:26 AM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3814 on: September 11, 2020, 09:33:30 AM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W

Infants and very young children especially have shown that they're susceptible to covid-19 and have regularly required hospitalization.  Person to person transmission from young children has been shown to be very real, and common as they often present as asymptomatic.

"we found that the proportion of severe and critical cases was 10.6%, 7.3%, 4.2%, 4.1%
and 3.0% for the age group of ˂1, 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 and >15 years, respectively."

https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf


"Importantly, our data show that severe COVID-19 can occur both in young children and in adolescents, and that a significant proportion of those patients require ICU support, frequently including mechanical ventilation. A small study from Madrid also found that four (10%) of 41 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection required admission to ICU. In our cohort, being younger than 1 month, male sex, presence of lower respiratory tract infection signs or symptoms at presentation, and presence of a pre-existing medical condition were associated with increased likelihood of requiring ICU admission. Our results also show that the majority of children who are intubated due to respiratory failure require prolonged ventilation, often for 1 week or more. This contrasts with observations in children with RSV infection who, on average, only require mechanical ventilation for 5–7 days, but is not dissimilar to observations in children with influenza. This has important implications for service planning, as although the overall demand for ICU support might be lower in children than in adults, each patient is likely to occupy ICU space for an extended period of time. At this time of intense strain on health-care services worldwide, it is vital that adequate resources are allocated to paediatric services to sustain the provision of high-quality care for children."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30177-2/fulltext

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3815 on: September 11, 2020, 10:28:18 AM »
We've already talked about this over in the kid forum, but to be blunt, if you don't experience in person school/aren't around elementary schools much, you need to understand some stuff:
-Lots of kids access the *majority* of their food at school (as in, 2 and sometimes 3 meals).
-Many kids do not have ANY responsible adult available to make sure they are doing their schoolwork during the day
-Tons of kids access mental health/counseling/family intervention services via school. Lots of them have shitty parents or shitty home lives or get beat up or worse by a relative or neighbor... and the first line of defense/only easily accessible resource for them is the staff at school.

School is probably the most essential possible service for a huge portion of our society. I'd rather not have the fire department, or something. Even if Covid was pretty darn dangerous for kids (and so far, it looks like it's really not) I'd probably support in person school for anyone who needs it, because it's just that important.

-W

To add to that, I'm worried we're going to have an entire generation of children with massive social disorders because of this. Having children who are 6-8 years old and only remember fearing other humans is going to be crippling.

Eowyn_MI

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3816 on: September 11, 2020, 10:34:33 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3817 on: September 11, 2020, 10:45:46 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.
It's almost like you think the only thing teachers ever have to do is be in a classroom in front of their pupils.

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3818 on: September 11, 2020, 10:53:06 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3819 on: September 11, 2020, 11:10:23 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

My point was that once school was out last spring, teachers became part of the general population.  "Teacher dies" is no more informative than for any other job.  It is not informative.  Now that teachers are back, interacting with students and staff, they are in a potentially high risk group.  If in a month teacher infections are above their local infection rates, that gives us information.  If they still are at background rates of infection, that gives us information.  If a teacher catches it outside of school and then spreads it inside the school (remember not everyone is symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can still shed the virus) that gives us information.  But right now?  Drawing conclusions from inadequate information is invalid.

Not saying we shouldn't open up schools.  Ontario is, with lots of concerns being expressed about the arrangements.  Our infection rates aren't high but they aren't super low either.  And cold weather is coming, which will certainly affect how much time we spend outside.  Older buildings may present ventilation issues.  There are a lot of variables whose effects we don't know.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3820 on: September 11, 2020, 11:13:31 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.
It's almost like you think the only thing teachers ever have to do is be in a classroom in front of their pupils.

In normal times sure they'd be around dozens of adults. Its called making adjustments for Covid like literally every other profession has done.

Wear masks; dont dawdle in the hallways and staff lounges; all meetings via zoom; etc.

Everyone from Drs to grocery checkers have adjusted to the "new normal" and done thier job.

I have no idea how this lady got Covid; and I'm sorry for her and her family just like the other victims of Covid.

But I think a headline of "teacher dies from covid first week of school" is misleading when its a virtual school and it doesnt appear she received it from teaching.

IF and thats a total unknown she got it from another co-worker there's no telling if they wore masks or not; mantained 6 feet etc.

----------

And to add on to what others are saying - back in April/May when noone was leaving the house of course schools should be closed. At this point it seems the cats out of the bag and almost everything but schools are back open.

I'm lucky that my wife is a teacher working from home and is managing to help both our kids with VS while she works. Almost every other family I know has thier kids in some cohort, daycare, neighborhood swap, etc. And as far as I can tell they dont wear mask or social distamce so school seems it would be not that much worse; if not safer.

In the Spring employers were lenient; now people have to actually work from home...not do VS with thier kids for 6 hours and answer emails for 10 minutes. I know multiple people who were going to lose thier jobs unless they found daytime kid care.

On top of that many of them were in canps all Summer. I would hope our county with state of the art buildings and thier 2.8 billion budget could come up with a plan as safe as the average Mom and Pop summer camp.

---------

All that being said. I'm ok with other states being Guinea pigs and I understand the Fall/winter is a HUGE unknown.

I just hope states/counties are watching/learning and trying to come up with plans to open in some capacity for second semester.

My honest guess is they'll just continue to say it cant be done and wash thier hands of it leaving the whole year virtual. Who knows for next year.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3821 on: September 11, 2020, 11:23:37 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.

This logic is absolutely insane.  I'm sure a virus that was contracted outside of the school could spread through a dense population (ie a school) just as easily as if she had contracted it from inside the school.  That's the only possible way for an outbreak to start.  If anything I think her contracting the virus outside of school still makes the case that it's a bad idea to loosen restrictions further, because teachers are already getting sick and dying just being members of the general population, and opening schools only increases the potential contact points between everyone. 

It's like you have a giant paper school filled with tons of matches, and one of the matches bursts into flames and you are saying "oh it's fine to have all these matches commingling together inside this paper building because that one particular match caught fire outside of the building".  And then I point out that the source of the initial flame is irrelevant because the entire building is still highly flammable, and you just double down and reiterate that that match caught fire outside of the building. 

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3822 on: September 11, 2020, 11:32:02 AM »
I think it's probably impossible to convince anyone to change their mind about schools opening or not at this point. You can point out that kids aren't at any meaningful risk, that teachers can and should stay safe by doing boring basic stuff, and that lots of other industries where people have to be indoors together somehow have managed to figure out how to operate. It doesn't matter. People are just freaked out.

So it is what it is. We'll throw thousands of vulnerable kids under the proverbial bus thinking we're being safer that way, because people can't step outside their bubbles to see how normal people live.

-W

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3823 on: September 11, 2020, 01:43:48 PM »
Can you post a source on that?  Everything I've read indicates it's deadlier than the flu for all age groups. 


https://freopp.org/estimating-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influenza-or-pneumonia-by-age-630aea3ae5a9


Based on that analysis, what is striking is that those under the age of 25 are at significantly lower risk of death from COVID-19 than of the flu. Under our assumptions, for example, school-aged children between 5 and 14 have a 1 in 200,000 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 1.5 million chance of dying of COVID-19.



« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 01:46:24 PM by HBFIRE »

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3824 on: September 11, 2020, 02:18:13 PM »
*snip*

We live in a low income area.  Most households are multi-generational in our neighbourhood so keeping the kids at home has actually been easier for them than middle class households as the grandparents have been doing the lion's share of the child care. Daycares began to open up around here last month - but they were opening at 1/4 capacity and with mandatory mask wearing/social distancing.  Most daycares were unable to fill all the spots even at reduced capacity.  It may be going on, but I certainly haven't seen evidence of 20 kids hanging out together in a 2 bedroom apartment.

I wanted to address this, specifically.  It matches the situation in my location also.

By and large, the majority of folks who are clamoring to get their children back in school are the rich white people.  These aren't just the people you see complaining on websites and facebook and at the school board meetings.  The district has given SEVERAL surveys, asking parents if we should reopen, and if so, how (full on, hybrid).

The majority of poor parents preferred distance learning.  The  majority of Latinx families preferred distance learning (there is a great deal of overlap in our case). 

The most recent survey just ended, and over half of all respondents said "no, do not reopen".  This is despite the fact that the response rate among the Latinx population is lower than the response rate of the white population.

My children attend schools where 75% and 95% of the students are poor.  My kids got free lunch for years because they just gave it to everyone (breakfast too).  Many of these students live with their grandparents or other families.  And some of the children are being raised by their grandparents. 

Perhaps the survey results are due to:
1. The families are worried about the health of grandparents and at risk family members
2. The families have someone who is able to be at home with the students
3. The district has continued to provide food to all of the students (breakfast and lunch are grab and go).  The daily class schedules are set around this.
4. The district has provided internet and devices to everyone.

That does not mean that these children won't fall behind over the school year.  Some of them will.  For this reason, our district has been working diligently to figure out how to reopen schools safely.

Recognize that what is safe is going to depend greatly on where you live - and I think that nuance is very much lost sometimes on these forums.  You simply cannot apply a "one size fits all" solution to every school or location.  We are in California, our positivity rate is around 8%.  We do not have enough widespread testing to safely open, and our case rate is still too high.  The town I grew up in is small, and rural.  My nieces are in high school, back at school - but with only 35 students per grade, total?  That's not all that difficult.  COVID is simply not that widespread there.

It's very widespread here, and many of our teachers are older or at risk.  That is the reality of our particular location.  And unlike other areas of the country - until recently, people have been compliant.  My children have not seen friends since March.  There are no playdates.  The parks are closed, with yellow caution tape around all of the playground equipment.  The beaches were closed for holidays.  Several families I know have "pods" (one or two other families that they hang out with).  Most camps were closed all summer.

I am only just now seeing the (rich, white) friends getting together to party with 10-15 other families, 30-40 other people, now that our cases are declining.  I only hope this doesn't come back to bite us.

Once our case rate gets to the "red" level (an average of 4-7 cases per day per 100k population), and stays there for 14 days, the schools can reopen.

Our district is taking it slow.  Once we have reached "red", they will prioritize the students most at risk.  For our district, that means homeless children, English learners (45% of our elementary district), disabled students, and children on free/reduced lunch.  If we are lucky, that could be as early as the end of the month.

Once we have reached the "orange" level (1-4 cases per day per 100k people), the district plans to reopen all schools with the hybrid model. (Cohorts on campus half the time).

Finally, "yellow" (<1).  Modified fully in person model (masks, cleaning, etc.).  This is actually really expensive due to busing requirements.  More than half the students at our particular elementary school take the bus.

Unfortunately right now, the expense in getting started in a district with 14,000 students is going to be with testing and contact tracing.  They are working on it.  The slow startup (focusing on the most needy students) is the smart way to do it.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3825 on: September 11, 2020, 03:41:15 PM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

My point was that once school was out last spring, teachers became part of the general population.  "Teacher dies" is no more informative than for any other job.  It is not informative.  Now that teachers are back, interacting with students and staff, they are in a potentially high risk group.  If in a month teacher infections are above their local infection rates, that gives us information.  If they still are at background rates of infection, that gives us information.  If a teacher catches it outside of school and then spreads it inside the school (remember not everyone is symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can still shed the virus) that gives us information.  But right now?  Drawing conclusions from inadequate information is invalid.

Not saying we shouldn't open up schools.  Ontario is, with lots of concerns being expressed about the arrangements.  Our infection rates aren't high but they aren't super low either.  And cold weather is coming, which will certainly affect how much time we spend outside.  Older buildings may present ventilation issues.  There are a lot of variables whose effects we don't know.

I have the impression most school boards dropped the ball on this.    They've known it was coming since March after all.    Instead of figuring out their budget and making decisions about the tradeoffs they spent much time complaining.    Any teachers here who can comment?

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3826 on: September 11, 2020, 03:49:04 PM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

My point was that once school was out last spring, teachers became part of the general population.  "Teacher dies" is no more informative than for any other job.  It is not informative.  Now that teachers are back, interacting with students and staff, they are in a potentially high risk group.  If in a month teacher infections are above their local infection rates, that gives us information.  If they still are at background rates of infection, that gives us information.  If a teacher catches it outside of school and then spreads it inside the school (remember not everyone is symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can still shed the virus) that gives us information.  But right now?  Drawing conclusions from inadequate information is invalid.

Not saying we shouldn't open up schools.  Ontario is, with lots of concerns being expressed about the arrangements.  Our infection rates aren't high but they aren't super low either.  And cold weather is coming, which will certainly affect how much time we spend outside.  Older buildings may present ventilation issues.  There are a lot of variables whose effects we don't know.

I have the impression most school boards dropped the ball on this.    They've known it was coming since March after all.    Instead of figuring out their budget and making decisions about the tradeoffs they spent much time complaining.    Any teachers here who can comment?

I've read elsewhere that Toronto's largest school board had a good plan and Ford vetoed it.  The one he pushed is more expensive and riskier, according to commenters.  So the planning was done. 

I don't have kids in the school system so everything I hear is second hand.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3827 on: September 11, 2020, 04:55:12 PM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W
We have several schools around here that are having to shutdown and quarantine due to outbreaks and schools have only been back for 2 - 3 weeks.

I think it is going to be hard on students to switch between virtual and in person and hard on parents / employers to adjust their work schedules at a moments notice to accommodate the switch VS planning ahead in advance. Tough situation all around.

We were worried about my FIL since he is 74 and drives a school buss and decided to keep driving this year so far they have only had 1 or 2 students per day since no one is riding the buss this year.

Kind of crazy, 2 adults 1 driver, 1 monitor and 1 or 2 students in a big full size school buss.


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Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3828 on: September 11, 2020, 07:39:07 PM »
According to our premier:

Quote
There has been a 26.7% increase in young people presenting to emergency departments for intentional self-harm and suicidal ideation over the past few weeks,” Andrews said.

Last month, on 9 August, there was a 33% increase.

How many young people have to suffer when it would be simpler to just lock down health care workers, aged care residents and their families?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3829 on: September 11, 2020, 11:42:34 PM »
I've been talking to doctors I know about this, working in wards with covid patients.

You don't need to lock down healthcare workers. It's spreading in them because of dispersal of covid+ patients, and poor PPE.

Covid+ patients mostly just go to the nearest hospital. Historically this was so their families could visit them, but that's not allowed for covid+ patients so is irrelevant here. Now, if you have (say) 10 patients who go to 1 hospital, then they can only infect the 10 staff there looking after them. But if those 10 patients go to 10 different hospitals, they can infect 10x 10 staff, or 100 people.

As for PPE, the issue is that ordinary old masks and face shields only defend against droplets - big gobs of spit and snot. But would you want to only wear that if there were poison gas around? They don't defend against aerosols, tiny amounts floating around in the air. Now, aerosols disperse very quickly in the open air, which is why your shitty disposable mask is good enough for walking in the park, it'll protect you from someone gobbing on you, and the aerosols are a non-issue. But if you're in an enclosed space with airconditioning recycling the air, then you're in trouble.

So you need PPE which protects you from aerosols, and which fits. They do a "fit test" where they put it on you and spray something stinky in the air, if you can smell it then it doesn't fit yet. Most equipment is designed to accommodate the average doctor, who is a white male. It doesn't fit many asians and women. In the fit test they adjust it.

Less than 10% of Victorian hospitals have had better gear and fit testing done.

That's why we won't achieve the numbers they want in the roadmaps. 2/3 of new infections are healthcare workers and their households, so we'll keep simmering along with a low level of cases for a long time yet. On the plus side, they're mostly young and healthy (or they wouldn't be working) so very few of them will die.

Home Stretch

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3830 on: September 12, 2020, 07:35:22 AM »
According to our premier:

Quote
There has been a 26.7% increase in young people presenting to emergency departments for intentional self-harm and suicidal ideation over the past few weeks,” Andrews said.

Last month, on 9 August, there was a 33% increase.

How many young people have to suffer when it would be simpler to just lock down health care workers, aged care residents and their families?

Apparently, all of them. It's insane/asinine in the US too. We re-opened colleges and enacted rigorous testing, which OF COURSE immediately revealed a concerning number of cases. However, last time I checked a few days ago, there were 25,000 cases and zero deaths among students. But we sent them all home anyway. So now not only are they not getting a good education, but they have been sent home where it's far more likely they'll cause the exact problem we're supposedly trying to prevent - infecting the old people.

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3831 on: September 12, 2020, 02:30:38 PM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W
That is completely untrue.  Multiple outbreaks have occurred, in multiple states.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3832 on: September 12, 2020, 02:34:30 PM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W
That is completely untrue.  Multiple outbreaks have occurred, in multiple states.
Yeah - they had to close the daycare at one of the hospitals here.

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3833 on: September 12, 2020, 02:38:18 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

I mean there is certainly some risk that it could be transferred from student to teacher and yes they would be at a higher risk being older. Still hard to tell since so many schools have been closed but there has been very very little evidence of student to teacher transfer.

As far as between teachers from what I've heard from friends teaching private school it sounds like Teachers are wearing mask at all times but especially in hallways, to bathrooms etc. Eating lunch in their rooms with staff lounges closed, staff meetings all virtual, etc. so pretty minimal adult to adult contact.

----------

Also "essential" workers have been taking risk the whole time. I'm in construction sharing space with multiple contractors, homeowners, inspectors, I use a port a john for a bathroom shared by 50+ men for god sakes. My neighbor is a UPS driver and he's been working 60-70 hours a week delivering to hundreds of homes/business a week and spending 2-3 hours a day in a packed warehouse full of people with little ventilation. My cousin is an EMT running tons of calls from one of MD's corona hotspots, another friend is a mechanic working in a shop with 20 other mechanics, etc. etc.

To me I'm feeling more and more like in person teaching (especially for elementary) should be considered "essential". Certainly more important then the decks and kitchens and stuff I build for people.

Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone.

I understand that you're very concerned about Covid, and that's good. I'm assuming you don't have kids, though, because they are already (and have been for months) out at playgrounds and in each other's homes and such, all over the US. The horse is long out of the barn on kids for all but the most wealthy/paranoid/antisocial families who are still quarantining.

Adults, especially teachers, should be smart about it. We sent my elderly MIL to live elsewhere this school year. But the cost of not opening schools is far out of proportion to the risk at this point.

-W

Anecdotal evidence of course but in our larger social group of friend/families I only know of 2 out of maybe 50-60 who are still quarinting pretty strict. One has a really high risk special needs child and the other I guess is just really nervous about it. Everyone else is doing quite a bit of socializing.
And in my peer group, mostly scientists, we are still quarantining our children.  I work, using PPE and social distancing as well as being tested.  My family also gets tested and we still quarantine.  We go out for what we need and that is it. Both my children know how to wear masks, and also most importantly, how to take them off safely, my oldest understands social distancing.  Yes, it sucks and she spends a lot of time on FaceTime with friends while she is playing but we do have to look at what is happening in college when people are not being safe.  I do think there are ways to bring students back to school safely but it would take a lot more money than any of the districts have and it still would be require some of it to be virtual.  But the only that actually works is if the federal government did something about it.  We still don't have enough PPE for our hospital workers, we don't have enough testing, we are not doing waste water testing or any sort of real tracking.  Those things need to happen.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3834 on: September 12, 2020, 03:01:27 PM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W
That is completely untrue.  Multiple outbreaks have occurred, in multiple states.

I was speaking of my local/personal knowledge of my area. But indeed, hundreds of thousands of daycares have been open this whole time. There have been a handful of outbreaks. Daycare is good.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3835 on: September 12, 2020, 04:03:16 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3836 on: September 12, 2020, 05:22:05 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.
It is bit of a combination, we all should be isolating where we can and not being in large groups but also, we should have had better testing and contact tracing.  We also needed federal support to build enough PPE.  And yes, those should be enforced legally.  You should be ticketed if you are off private property and not wearing a mask or if you are in a large gathering.  Also, there should have been funding to set up both virtual schooling for those who want it/need it and to allow for smaller classes which would allow for more physical distancing.  Also, school waste water should be tested for the virus as some colleges are doing.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3837 on: September 12, 2020, 05:22:40 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.

Schools and daycares need to reopen.  No question there.  Of course mask wearing should be mandatory for children in school, and any child with flu like symptoms should not be allowed in the school or daycare.  We know that children transmit the disease and are more likely to be asymptomatic carriers than adults.  To combat this we should be creating small cells of 8-10 children and an educator at these facilities.  This will limit the people directly exposed every time transmission happens in a child care facility.  Parents who have children in school or in daycare should minimize contact with high risk people where it's possible to avoid - but they should also do their best to socially isolate from everyone in life as they are at higher risk of transmitting the disease because of their children.

Children should not be playing with random kids at parks or going to the homes of all their friends as though there wasn't a pandemic going on.  Beyond their school cell, they should have limited contact with other children.  This way they still get some level of socialization, but we radically reduce the risks posed.

There's no easy way to ensure that some parents don't sabotage things for everyone else though.  We need to educate the ignorant and socially shame those willing to risk everyone else with reckless actions into doing what's right.  I'm not sure that there's legislation that could be passed to do this.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 05:24:24 PM by GuitarStv »

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3838 on: September 12, 2020, 06:08:11 PM »
We have mask mandates with pretty much 100% compliance, classes/pods at school to limit interaction between kids, etc. But we also have soccer/lacrosse/hockey/etc happening as normal (with adults all masked). Kid play at playgrounds basically as normal and roam the neighborhood.

So some of what you want, G-steve, and some not so much. Thus far it has worked really well here (we're a ski town that was at the vanguard of Covid back in March).

I think testing of wastewater is a great idea.

-W

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3839 on: September 12, 2020, 09:13:14 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.

I happen to agree with Walt on this.

My question is different. I’m more interested in how further restrictions would be enforced and who would be enforcing them? Because you can pass all the laws and restrictions in the world, it’s the compliance and enforcement that matter. The police seem to be fairly busy getting bricks thrown at them right now. So I doubt they’re going to be all that enthusiastic about chasing down social distancing scofflaws.

I’m also curious about how restrictions are going to be any more successful than what we have right now. In my area, indoor use of masks is at close to 100%. Are we really going to get any better observance through further mandates? I think it more likely that it drives observance lower.


Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3840 on: September 13, 2020, 05:49:56 AM »
Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3841 on: September 13, 2020, 06:22:56 AM »
Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Nice police state y'all got there.  So when do you plan on moving? 

skp

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3842 on: September 13, 2020, 06:26:44 AM »
This just baffles me.  My grandbaby goes to day care and the toddler teacher in a room 2 doors down was covid positive.  They quarantined my grandbaby for 2 weeks even though she had no contact with said teacher.  I am a nurse.  2 of my coworkers are covid positive and I do come in contact with them.  We haven't been quarantined or even tested.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2020, 08:09:21 AM by skp »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3843 on: September 13, 2020, 07:15:19 AM »
Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Nice police state y'all got there.  So when do you plan on moving?

It's illegal to travel more than 5km from home or to leave home after 9pm. So we couldn't move if we wanted to. Of course if we were drug addicts we could move freely for treatment, etc

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3844 on: September 13, 2020, 09:08:35 AM »
If you get stopped by the cops for being more than 5kms from home, you could always just tell them you're out trying to find some heroin, or do you need some kind of proof that you're addicted?

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3845 on: September 13, 2020, 10:34:25 AM »
This just baffles me.  My grandbaby goes to day care and the toddler teacher in a room 2 doors down was covid positive.  They quarantined my grandbaby for 2 weeks even though she had no contact with said teacher.  I am a nurse.  2 of my coworkers are covid positive and I do come in contact with them.  We haven't been quarantined or even tested.

Day cares don't want liability, so they blanket shut down. Hospitals have infection control departments and can actually assess whether people are likely to catch it. Also if hospitals were to quarantine employees every time there was a possible exposure, there would be no one left to care for patients. I can name over 20 people at my hospital who have had it. In every case except the 71 yr old, it was minor.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3846 on: September 13, 2020, 10:58:06 AM »
A good essay for our Aussie friends.  By HD Thoreau

https://www.ibiblio.org/ebooks/Thoreau/Civil%20Disobedience.pdf

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3847 on: September 13, 2020, 12:14:42 PM »
According to our premier:

Quote
There has been a 26.7% increase in young people presenting to emergency departments for intentional self-harm and suicidal ideation over the past few weeks,” Andrews said.

Last month, on 9 August, there was a 33% increase.

How many young people have to suffer when it would be simpler to just lock down health care workers, aged care residents and their families?

Apparently, all of them. It's insane/asinine in the US too. We re-opened colleges and enacted rigorous testing, which OF COURSE immediately revealed a concerning number of cases. However, last time I checked a few days ago, there were 25,000 cases and zero deaths among students. But we sent them all home anyway. So now not only are they not getting a good education, but they have been sent home where it's far more likely they'll cause the exact problem we're supposedly trying to prevent - infecting the old people.

Ummm, college students aren't the only ones at those colleges. There are faculty (mostly older people), food service workers, housekeepers, teaching assistants, staff who do all sorts of things like taking care of computers, working in the bookstore, etc. Some older housekeepers at my local university got infected in the 2 weeks that the school was open . . . most of the faculty had already refused to teach in person, despite the pressure from the administration. It was a failed plan from day one.

One friend had a son there in Chapel Hill and they had him living in a suite with seven (yes 7!) other roommates sharing two bedrooms and a common room. 4 of them got infected. His son managed somehow to not get infected but had to abruptly move into the quarantine dorm and stay there 14 days by himself. Wasn't even allowed to go out to get food. Messed up system for sure. Then his parents were told to pick him up. So 12 days in college, 14 days after that in quarantine. Thankfully he handled it all well.

The colleges which have successfully stayed open in residential mode have:
1. Opened a week or two later than the big places that made the news with problems. Those problems were a wake up call.
2. Told students to get tested two weeks before coming to campus, then quarantine in their homes, then tested them again upon arrival, and then continued to test people randomly every week.
3. Switched the dorm rooms to single occupancy.
4. Been very strict with mask mandates, symptom reporting apps, and required testing to stay in campus buildings.
5. Have all large-sized classes online anyway. Only research, labs, and small classes that can accommodate social distancing are allowed to be in person.
6. Reported statistics from on campus testing on a weekly basis.
This combination of steps seems to be working.

The ACC is testing all athletes daily now. Yes, daily. Funny how having a huge amount of money on the line makes the impossible become possible.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3848 on: September 14, 2020, 07:30:24 AM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up. 

LaineyAZ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3849 on: September 14, 2020, 07:33:47 AM »
Man, it's like we're living in a parallel universe sometimes.  Virus, what virus??