Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675253 times)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3750 on: September 05, 2020, 08:34:13 PM »
Dan Andrews just announced Victoria's "roadmap" out of lockdown. It's fucking stupid, if you ask me.

Let me first say that it actually ticks all the boxes for "me", personally. It allows singles to see each other in bubbles, which obviates the 5km travelling restriction. That's all I need as it allows me to see friends/dates and to go on walks/exercise dates with them. Also enables me to see my family.

But our retail and hospitality won't open for another 6-8 weeks, till daily cases average 5-10 or less. Think about this...you currently have non-essential stuff like liquor stores open, but poor Jane who works at a department store or who is a hairdresser can't open for another 2 months until we've eliminated the virus? How stupid is that?

We already know where the virus is spreading. It's spreading through hospitals, aged care centres and a handful of suburbs. We could get exactly the same results by locking down those suburbs and families of those workers. Instead, Dan is making all of Melbourne suffer from industrial pain solely for the benefit of optics.

And Dan's stated reason is that he wants us to be covid-normal by Christmas....under our current plans we'll have indoor gatherings of 20+ people and outdoor gatherings up to 50-100 people by Christmas.

What the fuck! Who CARES about having massive Christmas parties? Doing that, getting there, takes such an enormous economic toll on retail and hospitality in the months leading up to Christmas. Dan is essentially saying that seeing your grandma on Christmas day is worth more than the wages of retail workers.

It's poor reasoning, and political points scoring at its worst.

I'm somewhat grateful that singles have now suddenly been given a raft of overdue exemptions, but I think the big picture is sorely missing.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3751 on: September 05, 2020, 10:32:13 PM »

I think Andrews may not even last till October, and that whoever takes over will accelerate things.

Medical dissent is rising, they're getting signatories to an open letter.

"In short, the medical, psychological and social costs of the lockdown are disproportionately enormous compared to the limited good being done by current policies, and are relevant factors to be taken into account by any responsible government."

https://www.coviddoctorsnetwork.com

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3752 on: September 10, 2020, 06:03:53 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious. 

maisymouser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3753 on: September 10, 2020, 06:19:58 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

There is evidence coming out lately that wearing a mask can drop the severity of disease should you contract COVID.

I agree with @Wolfpack Mustachian - the actions, while probably not significant at that EXACT moment in time, are ridiculous considering her position in politics and the inconsistent messaging from our leaders.

FWIW, I would have been wearing a mask in that situation, whether or not I was Pelosi. Indoors + close proximity to someone outside of my family = automatic wear-a-mask instinct.

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3754 on: September 10, 2020, 06:28:37 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

There is evidence coming out lately that wearing a mask can drop the severity of disease should you contract COVID.

I agree with @Wolfpack Mustachian - the actions, while probably not significant at that EXACT moment in time, are ridiculous considering her position in politics and the inconsistent messaging from our leaders.

FWIW, I would have been wearing a mask in that situation, whether or not I was Pelosi. Indoors + close proximity to someone outside of my family = automatic wear-a-mask instinct.
Can you please link to a study that shows that?

slappy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3755 on: September 10, 2020, 08:04:14 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.

I know this sounds terrible, but the reason we have blunt, stupid messaging, is because we have blunt, stupid people. Your comment about self assessing means nothing to people. People in general are just not good at that level of thought because we are selfish. Our own need for sports/haircuts/vacations is more important than self assessing and unknown risk to others. I don't mean to say all people are stupid or anything like that. I just think that we need something simple and easy to understand. We can work up to the self assessment part. The issue becomes even larger when you think about the school/parents working situation. In that case, "my kid might be sick, but I'm not sure and I can't afford to miss work" is what happens. Locally we had a case where the kid was tested and the parents sent him to school before getting the results, and it turned out to be positive. Unfortunately, this is why we have governing bodies. We simply can't trust everyone to self assess properly and consider the impact on other people. 

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3756 on: September 10, 2020, 08:08:22 AM »
It's amazing to me we have people saying Pelosi should be able to assess the risk for herself and determine the best course of action. And yet, the government has decreed that normal citizens are NOT allowed to do the same.

And these same people saying it's okay for Pelosi argue that we need to keep the lockdowns for some reason they can't quite explain.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3757 on: September 10, 2020, 08:26:33 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

Thats a sort of ridiculous sentiment I think. Doctors, Nurses, EMT's, pro athletes, etc. Are getting tested weekly. So none of them should wear a mask in public?

Thats a quick way to have the general public "I've had a negative test so I'm good" . soon nobody will be wearing masks with that attitude.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3758 on: September 10, 2020, 08:29:51 AM »
It's amazing to me we have people saying Pelosi should be able to assess the risk for herself and determine the best course of action. And yet, the government has decreed that normal citizens are NOT allowed to do the same.

And these same people saying it's okay for Pelosi argue that we need to keep the lockdowns for some reason they can't quite explain.

Yup, just more of the us vs them. Good for the goose bot for the gander, etc.

I think people are coming around to the idea of trying to protect the elderly and most at risk and moving forward in a sustainable way. But it'll take time to figure rhat out; I haven't heard much about another strick round of lockdowns and I dont imagine the US would tolerate it again.

Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

SwordGuy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3759 on: September 10, 2020, 11:52:58 AM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Eowyn_MI

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3760 on: September 10, 2020, 12:08:08 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Dramatic, much?

I used to think that people on this forum were better than average at using math and statistics in daily life.  Seems I was wrong about that.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3761 on: September 10, 2020, 12:25:15 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Dramatic, much?

I used to think that people on this forum were better than average at using math and statistics in daily life.  Seems I was wrong about that.

I know right. I can't even on here sometimes :/

Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

FWIW I agree with you and thats a big part of why I think we need to get kids back in school.

First week of VS my 9 year old nephew tried to run away from home to "live in the woods so he wouldn't have to stare at a screen all day"

Meanwhile my own daughter suffers from anxiety/depression and has had some pretty scary times.

My wife teaches at a very low income high needs school and shes dealt with multiple cases of abuse; kids/siblings committing suicide; older siblings being shot, etc. All pre covid. I cant even imagine what those kids are going through now....and she can't ask them because she only gets about 20-50% logging onto Virtual school on any given day.

So I'll personally take the smaller risk of Covid over these other risk. YMMV of course.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3762 on: September 10, 2020, 12:27:30 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

The flu is statistically far more deadly for people under 21 than covid 19.  Maybe we should just permanently shut down everything.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3763 on: September 10, 2020, 01:12:09 PM »
Can you post a source on that?  Everything I've read indicates it's deadlier than the flu for all age groups. 

I also don't take much solace in knowing the children in my family may have a statistically higher survival rate compared with the flu (I still don't believe this is true until I can see some credible sources) but they've killed off their grandparents, and the grandparents of school mates in the meantime.

I'm also unsure of how shoving all kids back into classrooms is a panacea for their short attention spans and anxiety/depression.  Kids still get anxiety and depression when attending school.  And no kid that tries to run away to live in the woods to avoid "staring at a screen all day" is going to be 100% happy sitting in a classroom all day every day.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3764 on: September 10, 2020, 01:41:10 PM »
Can you post a source on that?  Everything I've read indicates it's deadlier than the flu for all age groups. 


Here's one:

https://www.wyff4.com/article/answering-coronavirus-data-questions-mortality-compared-to-seasonal-flu/33010377

Doesn't seem that flu deaths is broken down in the same way, so it's a bit more effort to get an apples-apples comparison of the two.

chemistk

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3765 on: September 10, 2020, 01:56:04 PM »
Re: Our kids are going to die because they're going to school.

It's not the schools we should even be worried about. It's all the creative ways parents who are doing virtual schooling (by choice or because they had no choice) have come with. I've seen so many people posting pictures of the "home-schools" they've created to mitigate the difficulties of virtual learning.

Many of these people have come together to send their kids to one house each day and the parents at that house take the day off work or move their schedules around so they can supervise the 4-10+ kids sitting around on various technology doing virtual school. No masks. No sanitizer. Nothing.

Granted, it's a smart choice - better to give the kids some focused attention from a "proctor" than occasional assistance from an overextended parent trying to juggle the other kids/work/etc.

Meanwhile, my son - at in-person kindergarten - wears his mask all day as do his classmates. They are seated 6'+ from each other. He has an assigned seat on the bus. Non-school employees are not allowed into the building unless absolutely necessary.

Let's not continue to make shock-statements about how our kids will all die because they went to school. True that some districts will have a harder time than others, but the alternatives aren't any better at mitigating the spread of this virus. It's not going away. It's never going away. A vaccine won't solve anything in the interim. We, with kids, have to continue to live our lives and accept that our kids may be at a higher risk.

I'm not sending my kids to school sick. They wear masks. They wash their hands. They don't come on errands.

I can't shelter my kids from everything. I can't turn my house into a bunker for 1-2 years.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3766 on: September 10, 2020, 01:58:05 PM »
I'm also unsure of how shoving all kids back into classrooms is a panacea for their short attention spans and anxiety/depression.  Kids still get anxiety and depression when attending school.  And no kid that tries to run away to live in the woods to avoid "staring at a screen all day" is going to be 100% happy sitting in a classroom all day every day.

Sure its not a panacea; but keeping schools virtual isn't a pacacea from kids spreading the disease either.

My neighbor whose kid has never done any extra curricula activites is now playing softball,swimming, and doing girl scouts.

Half the people I know have thier kids in some type of daycare or distance learning consortia; etc. And I get the impression thats less masking then schools.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3767 on: September 10, 2020, 01:59:53 PM »
We've already talked about this over in the kid forum, but to be blunt, if you don't experience in person school/aren't around elementary schools much, you need to understand some stuff:
-Lots of kids access the *majority* of their food at school (as in, 2 and sometimes 3 meals).
-Many kids do not have ANY responsible adult available to make sure they are doing their schoolwork during the day
-Tons of kids access mental health/counseling/family intervention services via school. Lots of them have shitty parents or shitty home lives or get beat up or worse by a relative or neighbor... and the first line of defense/only easily accessible resource for them is the staff at school.

School is probably the most essential possible service for a huge portion of our society. I'd rather not have the fire department, or something. Even if Covid was pretty darn dangerous for kids (and so far, it looks like it's really not) I'd probably support in person school for anyone who needs it, because it's just that important.

-W

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3768 on: September 10, 2020, 02:09:36 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).


Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3769 on: September 10, 2020, 02:27:42 PM »
Another thing to look at is excess deaths. Baseline deaths per week in the US are 51-60k (higher in winter, lower in summer).

In the latter half of April, there were 17k deaths in one week from CovID, about 30% of all predicted deaths for spring weeks.

In the latter half of July, there were 7k deaths in one week from COVID, about 14% of all predicted deaths for summer weeks.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data

Regarding the vaccines:
the Oxford/astrazeneca vaccine trial is paused for new volunteers due a safety incident requiring review. These are generally not even announced publicly because they're fairly routine, but obviously everyone wants updates. There is a possibility that a patient had inflammation of the spinal cord, which can very rarely be caused by the attenuated (non-COVID) virus used for delivering this vaccine. It is reversible, sometimes requiring steroids. I'm anticipating that the event will be determined to be unrelated to vaccination, and the trial will continue.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 02:43:34 PM by Abe »

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3770 on: September 10, 2020, 02:57:26 PM »
Re: Our kids are going to die because they're going to school.

It's not the schools we should even be worried about. It's all the creative ways parents who are doing virtual schooling (by choice or because they had no choice) have come with. I've seen so many people posting pictures of the "home-schools" they've created to mitigate the difficulties of virtual learning.

Many of these people have come together to send their kids to one house each day and the parents at that house take the day off work or move their schedules around so they can supervise the 4-10+ kids sitting around on various technology doing virtual school. No masks. No sanitizer. Nothing.

Granted, it's a smart choice - better to give the kids some focused attention from a "proctor" than occasional assistance from an overextended parent trying to juggle the other kids/work/etc.

Meanwhile, my son - at in-person kindergarten - wears his mask all day as do his classmates. They are seated 6'+ from each other. He has an assigned seat on the bus. Non-school employees are not allowed into the building unless absolutely necessary.

Let's not continue to make shock-statements about how our kids will all die because they went to school. True that some districts will have a harder time than others, but the alternatives aren't any better at mitigating the spread of this virus. It's not going away. It's never going away. A vaccine won't solve anything in the interim. We, with kids, have to continue to live our lives and accept that our kids may be at a higher risk.

I'm not sending my kids to school sick. They wear masks. They wash their hands. They don't come on errands.

I can't shelter my kids from everything. I can't turn my house into a bunker for 1-2 years.

I think in the first sentence you meant to have a "not" in there?

Yes, well said. We** are going to work, grocery stores, sports, getting repairs done on our houses, traveling, getting cars fixed, running errands etc. We are doing it all differently then we did In February; but we are doing it. There is no reason we can't make adjustments for school the same way.

*the collective "we", not just my family

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3771 on: September 10, 2020, 03:01:03 PM »
We've already talked about this over in the kid forum, but to be blunt, if you don't experience in person school/aren't around elementary schools much, you need to understand some stuff:
-Lots of kids access the *majority* of their food at school (as in, 2 and sometimes 3 meals).
-Many kids do not have ANY responsible adult available to make sure they are doing their schoolwork during the day
-Tons of kids access mental health/counseling/family intervention services via school. Lots of them have shitty parents or shitty home lives or get beat up or worse by a relative or neighbor... and the first line of defense/only easily accessible resource for them is the staff at school.

School is probably the most essential possible service for a huge portion of our society. I'd rather not have the fire department, or something. Even if Covid was pretty darn dangerous for kids (and so far, it looks like it's really not) I'd probably support in person school for anyone who needs it, because it's just that important.

-W

Wait a minute you mean outside of this Forum not everyone is FI or can afford to have a stay at home parent!! <sarcasm>

And for those with the means to do a proper home school experience they can certainly opt out of in person learning for a year (or two?) but I feel you should have a choice.  And if 20-50% do opt for virtual or homeschool or whatever it would just make it that much easier to social distance and decrease class size for the kids that do need the in person learning.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3772 on: September 10, 2020, 03:06:23 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).





Another thing to look at is excess deaths. Baseline deaths per week in the US are 51-60k (higher in winter, lower in summer).

In the latter half of April, there were 17k deaths in one week from CovID, about 30% of all predicted deaths for spring weeks.

In the latter half of July, there were 7k deaths in one week from COVID, about 14% of all predicted deaths for summer weeks.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data

Is there a list/chart somewhere showing the average deaths for 2020 so far compared to other years? Like as to compare where we are in that 51-60K average. Like I assume that April week that was well in excess like 70-80K; but what about other weeks/currently?

I guess I'm just curious when/if we'll have a better idea of how many excess deaths there were from Covid; IE like how many of the folks (especially in the 65+ range) could/would have potentially died from another cause (big ones typically heart disease, cancer, etc.)

I mean I guess that's impossible to really ever know, but just curious if there is a study or list about that so far.

----------

Regardless, thanks for the links and the info Abe.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3773 on: September 10, 2020, 03:15:24 PM »
Wait a minute you mean outside of this Forum not everyone is FI or can afford to have a stay at home parent!! <sarcasm>

Go read the thread, there were people who basically said, "what would be the big deal if we just cancel school this year?" They literally had never considered that school affected anyone but their gifted kids who can stay home and read Harry Potter and do Sudoku with the nanny.

Gotta love clueless rich people. I'm sure they all have great We Believe yard signs, though, so it's totally fine.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3774 on: September 10, 2020, 03:17:51 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).


Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).


Thanks Abe for showing some of the problems with the initial question!


Let's say you have if there's disease A that has 100% mortality rate but transmits incredibly rarely, and you have disease B that has 1% mortality rate but transmits very, very easily.  Disease A kills every single person who contracts it . . . but B is significantly deadlier and will kill far more people in a given population.

Talking about mortality rate without taking into account pathogenicity is not really telling the whole story at all.


(Of course, this whole line of questioning also ignores the many, many reported cases of possibly permanent non-fatal damage that coronavirus does do people.)

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3775 on: September 10, 2020, 03:48:46 PM »
(Of course, this whole line of questioning also ignores the many, many reported cases of possibly permanent non-fatal damage that coronavirus does do people.)

Can the flu (or other viruses) also cause permanent non fatal damage as well?

Not trying to be facetious; just genuinely asking if anyone knows.

Just for example my Father has permanent lung damage from a bad case of Pneumonia he had in his 40's (65 now)

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3776 on: September 10, 2020, 04:33:44 PM »
Lots of common respiratory diseases cause long term or permanent lung scarring/damage, especially if they're severe.

That's not to minimize Covid's dangerousness, but it's not unique in that way.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3777 on: September 10, 2020, 04:53:50 PM »
@Longwaytogo I did not omit a word in my opening line. It's not a sentiment I've seen restricted to this forum, either.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3778 on: September 10, 2020, 05:19:47 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).

Is this a valid comparison considering we've had covid restrictions since the beginning of the covid data, and normally just let flu run rampant? 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3779 on: September 10, 2020, 05:21:20 PM »
@Longwaytogo I did not omit a word in my opening line. It's not a sentiment I've seen restricted to this forum, either.

Gotcha; just re read your post. Your opening line was a title or a Re: kids dying in school.

But you don't think kids dying in school is a big risk and your kids are going to in person school. The "re" is the part I missed I think.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3780 on: September 10, 2020, 05:23:13 PM »
Lots of common respiratory diseases cause long term or permanent lung scarring/damage, especially if they're severe.

That's not to minimize Covid's dangerousness, but it's not unique in that way.

-W

That was my impression too; thats its common in many diseases. But the reporting to me seems to imply its unique to Covid which seems a bit alarmist and misleading.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3781 on: September 10, 2020, 05:59:16 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3782 on: September 10, 2020, 06:21:10 PM »
Lots of common respiratory diseases cause long term or permanent lung scarring/damage, especially if they're severe.

That's not to minimize Covid's dangerousness, but it's not unique in that way.

-W

That was my impression too; thats its common in many diseases. But the reporting to me seems to imply its unique to Covid which seems a bit alarmist and misleading.

Rheumatic fever was named that because it could cause permanent heart damage.  Severe cases of measles could cause blindness.  We now know chickenpox can resurface as shingles.

The point with discussing long term damage from Covid is that a lot of early commentary ignored severe effects and presented the situation as either death or recovery, no nuances.

We do have flu prevention efforts, flu vaccination every fall.  The vaccine is not 100% effective, but it is there.  People just need to take advantage of it.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3783 on: September 10, 2020, 06:39:53 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone. 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3784 on: September 10, 2020, 06:58:59 PM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

Thats a sort of ridiculous sentiment I think. Doctors, Nurses, EMT's, pro athletes, etc. Are getting tested weekly. So none of them should wear a mask in public?

Thats a quick way to have the general public "I've had a negative test so I'm good" . soon nobody will be wearing masks with that attitude.
Doctors, nurses and EMTs should be wearing N95 masks to protect themselves, not just others. And if you can't understand the difference between two individuals in an isolated room with one masked and the other tested multiple times a week and multiple people in large groups who have not been tested at all, I can't help you.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 07:04:29 PM by Gin1984 »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3785 on: September 10, 2020, 07:05:54 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Dramatic, much?

I used to think that people on this forum were better than average at using math and statistics in daily life.  Seems I was wrong about that.

In all of Australia there's no one under 33 who's died from coronavirus. There was one guy in his 20s who died and the premier cited him as "look, it kills young people too" but now that's suspected of having been a drug overdose and it's been removed from the fatality stats. The papers don't even publish the aggregate fatality stats because only 4 people under 50 have died in the whole country and the median decade of death is the 80s.

A lot of the coronavirus stuff is just about optics. Right now out of our 1400 active cases over 1000 are concentrated in aged care and hospitals - we're not even talking about family members of same (who you would think would account for most of the remainder), just employees/patients - and yet our whole state remains in stage 3/4 lockdown essentially because Australians are so egalitarian that they'd rather lock the whole community down than simply say to healthcare workers and their families that they need to do a mandatory self-quarantine.

Meanwhile children are being kept to "learn from home" which does not work for anyone but the best educated parents and children. We will have dumb (or maybe I should say dumber) children as a result of this. No one seems to articulate this concern because again, it's invisible.

I'm kinda over it - the weather is nice, there are sufficient exemptions for me to do what I like, etc etc...but I do weep for the failure of critical thinking skills of a huge proportion of the population.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3786 on: September 10, 2020, 07:23:55 PM »
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

Thats a sort of ridiculous sentiment I think. Doctors, Nurses, EMT's, pro athletes, etc. Are getting tested weekly. So none of them should wear a mask in public?

Thats a quick way to have the general public "I've had a negative test so I'm good" . soon nobody will be wearing masks with that attitude.
Doctors, nurses and EMTs should be wearing N95 masks to protect themselves, not just others. And if you can't understand the difference between two individuals in an isolated room with one masked and the other tested multiple times a week and multiple people in large groups who have not been tested at all, I can't help you.

I don't need your help so we're all good :D

I think your misunderstanding what I meant though. Of course Dr's/Nurses etc. need masks when working and in large groups.

I was using your example with Pelosi - If I'm a Doctor and I have a negative test on Thursday I shouldn't be able to just walk into my barbers Friday and say "I had a negative test yesterday so I'm all good, no mask needed" and expect my barber (or society at large in Pelosi's case) to be OK with that.

Testing twice a week doesn't mean-

1. You could get a bad test
2. You contracted the virus Thursday night, Friday morning, etc.

Wearing a mask means wearing a mask, that's it. As others have mentioned she could have just owned up to it; but she didn't.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3787 on: September 10, 2020, 07:28:03 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone.

I understand that you're very concerned about Covid, and that's good. I'm assuming you don't have kids, though, because they are already (and have been for months) out at playgrounds and in each other's homes and such, all over the US. The horse is long out of the barn on kids for all but the most wealthy/paranoid/antisocial families who are still quarantining.

Adults, especially teachers, should be smart about it. We sent my elderly MIL to live elsewhere this school year. But the cost of not opening schools is far out of proportion to the risk at this point.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3788 on: September 10, 2020, 08:02:24 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

I mean there is certainly some risk that it could be transferred from student to teacher and yes they would be at a higher risk being older. Still hard to tell since so many schools have been closed but there has been very very little evidence of student to teacher transfer.

As far as between teachers from what I've heard from friends teaching private school it sounds like Teachers are wearing mask at all times but especially in hallways, to bathrooms etc. Eating lunch in their rooms with staff lounges closed, staff meetings all virtual, etc. so pretty minimal adult to adult contact.

----------

Also "essential" workers have been taking risk the whole time. I'm in construction sharing space with multiple contractors, homeowners, inspectors, I use a port a john for a bathroom shared by 50+ men for god sakes. My neighbor is a UPS driver and he's been working 60-70 hours a week delivering to hundreds of homes/business a week and spending 2-3 hours a day in a packed warehouse full of people with little ventilation. My cousin is an EMT running tons of calls from one of MD's corona hotspots, another friend is a mechanic working in a shop with 20 other mechanics, etc. etc.

To me I'm feeling more and more like in person teaching (especially for elementary) should be considered "essential". Certainly more important then the decks and kitchens and stuff I build for people.

Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone.

I understand that you're very concerned about Covid, and that's good. I'm assuming you don't have kids, though, because they are already (and have been for months) out at playgrounds and in each other's homes and such, all over the US. The horse is long out of the barn on kids for all but the most wealthy/paranoid/antisocial families who are still quarantining.

Adults, especially teachers, should be smart about it. We sent my elderly MIL to live elsewhere this school year. But the cost of not opening schools is far out of proportion to the risk at this point.

-W

Anecdotal evidence of course but in our larger social group of friend/families I only know of 2 out of maybe 50-60 who are still quarinting pretty strict. One has a really high risk special needs child and the other I guess is just really nervous about it. Everyone else is doing quite a bit of socializing.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3789 on: September 10, 2020, 08:20:34 PM »
I do find it fascinating that the same people I know who are up in arms about in-person school are totally fine with all sorts of other "essential" things (ie, housekeepers, construction of all sorts of nonessential things, liquor stores, hair care/nail salons, etc, etc, etc) being open with basic safety precautions.

Political polarization has made hypocrisy and hysteria sort of standard behavior all around, I guess. For every "BLM marxist Joe Biden is coming to take your guns" lunatic there's someone living in a giant house in suburbia with a We Believe sign that says "water is life" and "science is real" who is against letting poor kids go to school in person even though they're at hugely higher risk at home, while they water their giant lawn at 2pm.

I'm proud of our community for doing the right thing and opening the schools.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3790 on: September 10, 2020, 08:35:58 PM »
In all of Australia there's no one under 33 who's died from coronavirus. There was one guy in his 20s who died and the premier cited him as "look, it kills young people too" but now that's suspected of having been a drug overdose and it's been removed from the fatality stats. The papers don't even publish the aggregate fatality stats because only 4 people under 50 have died in the whole country and the median decade of death is the 80s.

A lot of the coronavirus stuff is just about optics. Right now out of our 1400 active cases over 1000 are concentrated in aged care and hospitals - we're not even talking about family members of same (who you would think would account for most of the remainder), just employees/patients - and yet our whole state remains in stage 3/4 lockdown essentially because Australians are so egalitarian that they'd rather lock the whole community down than simply say to healthcare workers and their families that they need to do a mandatory self-quarantine.

Meanwhile children are being kept to "learn from home" which does not work for anyone but the best educated parents and children. We will have dumb (or maybe I should say dumber) children as a result of this. No one seems to articulate this concern because again, it's invisible.

I'm kinda over it - the weather is nice, there are sufficient exemptions for me to do what I like, etc etc...but I do weep for the failure of critical thinking skills of a huge proportion of the population.

Couldn't agree more - It is about optics now. Imagine being a politician who fought tooth and nail for extreme lockdowns even after we knew that this was spreading much more slowly and killing far fewer than the initial worst projections. There is no way to dig yourself out of that - you need to double down.

That's why the goalposts keep moving in such an infuriating way:

First it was "flatten the curve so we don't overwhelm the hospitals" (totally reasonable). Then it was "well we need to minimize deaths" (still with you, but we need to weigh mortality against economic collapse). Then it became "we need to minimize hospitalizations" (well, we already stopped them from being overwhelmed, so we shouldn't be worried if there is capacity). Finally we crossed the threshold into "we need to minimize cases, regardless of how mortality is trending" (which is just bad policy).

It's like everyone collectively forgot what the original goal was, and our leaders keep inventing new ones just to justify past actions and save face. Why not just adapt to the new information and trends?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3791 on: September 10, 2020, 09:11:08 PM »
It's because a positive (by positive I don't mean "good", but "verifiable") outcome can be splashed on the papers, but a negative one can't.

So when you look at the daily deaths from coronavirus - people in their 80s, 90s and 100s - you can do a newspaper write up about their lives, etc.

But when you look at the total toll of a $110 billion dollar hit to the Melbourne economy from the lockdowns[1], or the healthcare problems that will eventuate due to fewer people seeking emergency care [2], there is no way to do a newspaper article about something that didn't happen, other than in abstract statistical terms. You can't find someone who would have gone to the emergency department to treat a preventable disease, but didn't.

And politicians care about real life examples, not abstract statistics. That's why Republicans find small business owners getting screwed over by higher taxes and Democrats find some black single mother getting screwed over by some invidious neoliberal policy.

Anyway, going back to the lockdown - when I bring up my concerns that it's just stage management, people object, "Oh, so you're against lockdown at all?! You want people to die?" No, I'm against a wholesale lockdown and things like suburbs and entire regions with nil active cases being locked down for the sake of community unity. I'm against things like sole traders working alone still being unable to access their premises for which they pay rent, for the sake of community unity. I'm against the government's decision to no longer publish details of known family transmission hotspots (the NSW government does this, the VIC govt does not any more) presumably because it doesn't want to marginalise the poor communities in which the hotspots lie.

---
[1] https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/inner-melbourne-economy-tipped-to-suffer-110b-hit-over-five-years-20200909-p55tt9.html
[2] https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-43-new-covid-19-cases-nine-deaths-20200911-p55ul1.html

« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 09:15:18 PM by Bloop Bloop »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3792 on: September 10, 2020, 09:36:47 PM »
@Bloop Bloop - well, there may be a way to observe the kind of consequences you are talking about, at least those that are potentially resulting in increased mortality. See for example here: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales-higher-than-five-year-average-for-third-week-running-12066427

Now that we are doing such an excellent job counting every possible COVID death, it's easy by process of elimination to count the non-COVID deaths in any given country. If the non-COVID death rate is still above the running average for mortality, it seems to indicate that people are indeed dying because they didn't seek treatment for other conditions, or their care was delayed due to lockdowns or delays in in the healthcare system. Not to be morbid, but I also have to assume some of those deaths are suicides or drug/alcohol related premature deaths that were in part brought on by the stress and fear that is permeating society this year.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3793 on: September 11, 2020, 04:11:15 AM »
@Bloop Bloop - well, there may be a way to observe the kind of consequences you are talking about, at least those that are potentially resulting in increased mortality. See for example here: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales-higher-than-five-year-average-for-third-week-running-12066427

Now that we are doing such an excellent job counting every possible COVID death, it's easy by process of elimination to count the non-COVID deaths in any given country. If the non-COVID death rate is still above the running average for mortality, it seems to indicate that people are indeed dying because they didn't seek treatment for other conditions, or their care was delayed due to lockdowns or delays in in the healthcare system. Not to be morbid, but I also have to assume some of those deaths are suicides or drug/alcohol related premature deaths that were in part brought on by the stress and fear that is permeating society this year.
Are you sure we are counting every COVID death?  Covid can make blood sticky, which can lead to strokes and heart attacks.  If someone doesn't have the 3 named symptoms (a very significant proportion of those infected) they can't get a test but might still end up dying of a heart attack or stroke and not be counted as a Covid death.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3794 on: September 11, 2020, 04:28:55 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.

I'm in NC & happy our county made a smart decision to move classes online for the health and welfare of the staff and families; my kids are learning quite well via an online public school.

Meanwhile, my state still seems to have 1000+ new cases of this virus diagnosed per day. Let's not pretend everything is okay now. Several of my son's friends and at least one of my daughter's friends have tested positive for the virus this past month, and some of them have gotten extremely sick! Teenage boys are telling each other, via discord, "trust me, bro, I'm super sick: you don't want to get this!"

All three of our largest public universities have had to send the students back home because the spread of the virus was rampant in the first two weeks of classes, and that was a highly predictable outcome. University leadership plans were delusional at those schools, and they certainly didn't have procedures in place to ensure the safety and welfare of their student bodies.

If people in the USA could handle wearing facemasks properly and social distancing, then we could be like South Korea and never have shut down. All kids would be going to school buildings today. But the USA has a significant portion of the population who are ignorant and proud of it . . . so here we are.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:16:42 AM by Zamboni »

Eowyn_MI

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3795 on: September 11, 2020, 04:34:14 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3796 on: September 11, 2020, 05:15:43 AM »
At this point community spread is so prevalent in SC that who knows where she got it?

She did attend a week of "in person training" at the school and then she was diagnosed about a week later. Maybe she got it from another teacher during their training sessions, or maybe she got it at the grocery store, who knows? I don't think she taught students in person, but the point is that the teachers will be highly exposed to the virus and are at thus at very high risk when schools in areas with community spread move to in person classes. Pretending they are not is just burying your head in the sand.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:17:30 AM by Zamboni »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3797 on: September 11, 2020, 05:51:49 AM »
At this point community spread is so prevalent in SC that who knows where she got it?

She did attend a week of "in person training" at the school and then she was diagnosed about a week later. Maybe she got it from another teacher during their training sessions, or maybe she got it at the grocery store, who knows? I don't think she taught students in person, but the point is that the teachers will be highly exposed to the virus and are at thus at very high risk when schools in areas with community spread move to in person classes. Pretending they are not is just burying your head in the sand.
The other thing to remember about teachers is just how many of them there are in the USA: 3.3 million.  So if all teachers go back to school you are adding 3.3 million people to the risk pool for covid.  That is very significant just by itself, let alone all the contacts they have.  Plus, 8% of public school teachers are in a higher risk group by being over 60: that's a quarter of a million teachers.  Add to that teachers under 60 who have other risk factors such as being immumosuppressed.

Also remember: every teacher that dies or is disabled by covid because schools go back this year is a teacher not available to teach children next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

So both the scale of the issue, and the potential consequences of things going wrong, are enormous.

https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=28

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3798 on: September 11, 2020, 05:56:05 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.

I'm in NC & happy our county made a smart decision to move classes online for the health and welfare of the staff and families; my kids are learning quite well via an online public school.

Meanwhile, my state still seems to have 1000+ new cases of this virus diagnosed per day. Let's not pretend everything is okay now. Several of my son's friends and at least one of my daughter's friends have tested positive for the virus this past month, and some of them have gotten extremely sick! Teenage boys are telling each other, via discord, "trust me, bro, I'm super sick: you don't want to get this!"

All three of our largest public universities have had to send the students back home because the spread of the virus was rampant in the first two weeks of classes, and that was a highly predictable outcome. University leadership plans were delusional at those schools, and they certainly didn't have procedures in place to ensure the safety and welfare of their student bodies.

If people in the USA could handle wearing facemasks properly and social distancing, then we could be like South Korea and never have shut down. All kids would be going to school buildings today. But the USA has a significant portion of the population who are ignorant and proud of it . . . so here we are.

You could be like Canada and have a few100 cases per province/ state.  We're wearing masks and limiting gatherings and observing psocial distancing.   And schools are opening, under various models, we'll see how that goes.

Health and education are both provincial/territorial areas of responsibility, so we have 13 sets of procedures.  Some are doing better than others.

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