Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675255 times)

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1311
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3700 on: August 26, 2020, 11:32:09 PM »
Looks like Sweden has in fact done better than other European countries economically:



https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

Funny thing is we are sort of adopting the Sweden strategy at this point.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3701 on: August 27, 2020, 02:46:00 AM »
Looks like Sweden has in fact done better than other European countries economically:



https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

Funny thing is we are sort of adopting the Sweden strategy at this point.

At least that article is fairly accurate. The prevailing story has been that Sweden has been sort of an anarchy with no restrictions and everyone has gone on with their lives as if nothing happened.

Anette

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 290
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3702 on: August 27, 2020, 03:42:41 PM »
I found this an interesting contrarian viewpoint from Harvard (caution: may need a subscription to read):

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

I think this is the same article on Fox Business:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-thinking-on-covid-lockdowns-theyre-overly-blunt-and-costly

The initial shutdown made a lot of sense - it gave us time to learn about the virus and how to mitigate it.     I'm not so sure that having more shutdowns is a good thing at this point.    We should be able to manage the virus without Draconian measures.    If there are specific problems areas, then they can be addressed more aggressively, otherwise people need to get on with their lives.

Yeah, except don't tell people on this thread because they might not like to read that, it's all about how people are irresponsible if they share those options
But wait - you may have realised by the way nobody else responded to your message but everyone is happy to talk about how people should/could be punished for possibly not agreeing the appropriate measures are taken...

NorthernBlitz

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 493
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3703 on: August 27, 2020, 04:12:24 PM »
Again, according to the article, although the patient technically got "reinfected" with covid, he experienced no symptoms, i.e. he didn't get sick, at all, not even a little bit. If a person catches a cold and she doesn't know it, did she really have a cold?

Yes great point, which could even mean he still had a great T cell response which is what we are starting to think with this virus.

Have been keeping fingers crossed on this since that Nature paper.

This one?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Yes. This is the one I'm thinking about.

Seem hopeful to me.

And I think might help explain why we're pretty flat after the first wave in Upstate NY despite having fewer restrictions in places like CA (where they hadn't had their 1st wave and got hit despite more stringent lock downs).

I think it also might partially explain why places that got SARS1 hard tended to do better than places that didn't (although behavior seems like an obvious contributor here too).

If it's true that 50% had some kind of T-Cell response because of contact with other "common" corona viruses, then maybe herd immunity isn't far away after places get their 1st wave (which seems like it can't be avoided, just delayed). Does anyone know of any city that's had two waves yet?

Unknown so far, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

We're running a bit of an experiment where I am now. We had been consistently below 1% positive tests for a while (months?). But University semester began on the 19th. No spike in positives so far, but I'm waiting for another week or two to see how many cases we imported from across the US (although all students did have to show a negative test before coming back to campus).
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 04:20:04 PM by NorthernBlitz »

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3704 on: August 27, 2020, 05:09:53 PM »
I found this an interesting contrarian viewpoint from Harvard (caution: may need a subscription to read):

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

I think this is the same article on Fox Business:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-thinking-on-covid-lockdowns-theyre-overly-blunt-and-costly

The initial shutdown made a lot of sense - it gave us time to learn about the virus and how to mitigate it.     I'm not so sure that having more shutdowns is a good thing at this point.    We should be able to manage the virus without Draconian measures.    If there are specific problems areas, then they can be addressed more aggressively, otherwise people need to get on with their lives.

Yeah, except don't tell people on this thread because they might not like to read that, it's all about how people are irresponsible if they share those options
But wait - you may have realised by the way nobody else responded to your message but everyone is happy to talk about how people should/could be punished for possibly not agreeing the appropriate measures are taken...

People do tend to move together in the same direction.   Like a big herd.   :-)    masks, climate change, anti-Trump, anti-Fox, pro-Trump, #metoo.     And then they punish non-conformists.

But in this case I think they're just interested in other things.


Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3705 on: August 27, 2020, 05:26:23 PM »
I found this an interesting contrarian viewpoint from Harvard (caution: may need a subscription to read):

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

I think this is the same article on Fox Business:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-thinking-on-covid-lockdowns-theyre-overly-blunt-and-costly

The initial shutdown made a lot of sense - it gave us time to learn about the virus and how to mitigate it.     I'm not so sure that having more shutdowns is a good thing at this point.    We should be able to manage the virus without Draconian measures.    If there are specific problems areas, then they can be addressed more aggressively, otherwise people need to get on with their lives.

Yeah, except don't tell people on this thread because they might not like to read that, it's all about how people are irresponsible if they share those options
But wait - you may have realised by the way nobody else responded to your message but everyone is happy to talk about how people should/could be punished for possibly not agreeing the appropriate measures are taken...

We don't want cognitive dissonance now.  Better to just ignore inconvenient evidence.   

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3706 on: August 27, 2020, 10:32:34 PM »
I don’t think anyone is advocating for blanket shutdowns again, at least in the US. At any rates I agree with the conclusions from the article HBFire and Scottish posted. It is worth mentioning that the authors predict only a 10% improvement in economic output with their targeted model. It’s unclear if that is a an absolute improvement (which would be great) or relative. Do you all know?
We have decent evidence that partial shutdowns and widespread mask compliance can control outbreaks. These are uniquely hot-button issues here in US, but even seemingly low-compliance states are doing a good job at controlling spread. We’re at a steady state of 500-1000 deaths per day and will probably hold at that until an effective vaccine comes. High-risk people will have to be extra vigilant to avoid infection, and multi-generational households will have disproportionate deaths. I don’t think there’s a lot we can do about that under than government subsidy for either workers in those households staying at home, or housing the older (and obese) members in alternate housing. Neither seem palatable to governments, so I guess we’ll just have a high death count. Life doesn’t have perfect solutions.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8822
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3707 on: August 28, 2020, 02:21:18 AM »
I found this an interesting contrarian viewpoint from Harvard (caution: may need a subscription to read):

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

I think this is the same article on Fox Business:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-thinking-on-covid-lockdowns-theyre-overly-blunt-and-costly

The initial shutdown made a lot of sense - it gave us time to learn about the virus and how to mitigate it.     I'm not so sure that having more shutdowns is a good thing at this point.    We should be able to manage the virus without Draconian measures.    If there are specific problems areas, then they can be addressed more aggressively, otherwise people need to get on with their lives.

Yeah, except don't tell people on this thread because they might not like to read that, it's all about how people are irresponsible if they share those options
But wait - you may have realised by the way nobody else responded to your message but everyone is happy to talk about how people should/could be punished for possibly not agreeing the appropriate measures are taken...

We don't want cognitive dissonance now.  Better to just ignore inconvenient evidence.   
No, after 75 pages of "but my freedoms" you have all made us unable to recognise that anything remotely rational comes after certain forum names.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8822
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3708 on: August 28, 2020, 02:22:27 AM »
The other coronaviruses are like that scenario, and have become endemic with low-level (often asymptomatic) infections in the population. It's possible that COVID-19 will become like the others over time, or become like influenza and kill a couple thousand people per year on a regular basis. How long that will take is not knowable, since the 4 endemic coronaviruses have been around much longer than modern epidemiology.

Influenza kills 20K to 60K people in the USA every year.
Worldwide, it kills 300K to 800K people per year.

Source: CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Yeah. And that’s with vaccinations. I expect covid will be like that, if we’re lucky.

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1866
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3709 on: August 28, 2020, 05:17:49 AM »
The other coronaviruses are like that scenario, and have become endemic with low-level (often asymptomatic) infections in the population. It's possible that COVID-19 will become like the others over time, or become like influenza and kill a couple thousand people per year on a regular basis. How long that will take is not knowable, since the 4 endemic coronaviruses have been around much longer than modern epidemiology.

Influenza kills 20K to 60K people in the USA every year.
Worldwide, it kills 300K to 800K people per year.

Source: CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Yeah. And that’s with vaccinations. I expect covid will be like that, if we’re lucky.

At this point, can we realistically expect anything better?

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1311
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3710 on: August 28, 2020, 06:28:31 PM »
We’re at a steady state of 500-1000 deaths per day and will probably hold at that until an effective vaccine comes.


Curious why you think it will hold this high.  From what I can tell, most developed nations have fallen to relatively low daily death numbers (below 50) despite reopening for several months now.  I think the US just took longer as its geography is so wide, it essentially had to go through multiple waves.  Do you expect NY to have another huge wave?  Surely various degrees of herd immunity is slowing things to some extent.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3711 on: August 28, 2020, 08:52:15 PM »
We’re at a steady state of 500-1000 deaths per day and will probably hold at that until an effective vaccine comes.


Curious why you think it will hold this high.  From what I can tell, most developed nations have fallen to relatively low daily death numbers (below 50) despite reopening for several months now.  I think the US just took longer as its geography is so wide, it essentially had to go through multiple waves.  Do you expect NY to have another huge wave?  Surely various degrees of herd immunity is slowing things to some extent.

I agree over time it will slow down, but have two theories:

1) There are still large parts of our geography that have not had significant exposures.  There was another thread we were discussing why the simplistic time-dependent epidemiologic models aren't working for our country because they don't account for cross-population infection (someone from Pop B goes to Pop A, which is recovering, and restarts the spread) and also don't account for relaxation of lockdowns (which are necessary to keep the economy functioning). If we had a big spike in all the states simultaneously in the spring, I'd expect things to drop off rapidly as the susceptible people across the US would have been exposed and subsequent precautions were taken to slow down spread afterwards. Since we didn't there are the multiple waves that in aggregate look like a longer tail.

2) I've noticed recently what I call a death lag. Basically, in the NE death rates closely followed infection rates, and dropped rapidly afterwards. (NY, NJ, CT in the graph attached). However, in the latest round (CA, TX, FL, AZ) only AZ had a drop off. The other three are still on a plateau for deaths.
Explanation 1: Part of this is overwhelmed coroner's offices for report issuances, so we will have to see if in retrospect this is an artifact. If the latter, then when cases are re-analyzed it'll show a sharper peak in deaths with a faster downslope like seen in the Northeast.
Explanation 2: The other possibility is better management of the acute instability we see with COVID ICU patients, with subsequent later deaths. This is called the second peak phenomena, where we got people through the acute illness but then some BS other problem takes them out during recovery (PE, heart attack, ventilator-associated pneumonia, etc). It sucks and happens often in critically ill patients who survive the initial sepsis. We are seeing more of these now.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3712 on: August 28, 2020, 09:48:57 PM »
We’re at a steady state of 500-1000 deaths per day and will probably hold at that until an effective vaccine comes.


Curious why you think it will hold this high.  From what I can tell, most developed nations have fallen to relatively low daily death numbers (below 50) despite reopening for several months now.  I think the US just took longer as its geography is so wide, it essentially had to go through multiple waves.  Do you expect NY to have another huge wave?  Surely various degrees of herd immunity is slowing things to some extent.

I agree over time it will slow down, but have two theories:

1) There are still large parts of our geography that have not had significant exposures.  There was another thread we were discussing why the simplistic time-dependent epidemiologic models aren't working for our country because they don't account for cross-population infection (someone from Pop B goes to Pop A, which is recovering, and restarts the spread) and also don't account for relaxation of lockdowns (which are necessary to keep the economy functioning). If we had a big spike in all the states simultaneously in the spring, I'd expect things to drop off rapidly as the susceptible people across the US would have been exposed and subsequent precautions were taken to slow down spread afterwards. Since we didn't there are the multiple waves that in aggregate look like a longer tail.

2) I've noticed recently what I call a death lag. Basically, in the NE death rates closely followed infection rates, and dropped rapidly afterwards. (NY, NJ, CT in the graph attached). However, in the latest round (CA, TX, FL, AZ) only AZ had a drop off. The other three are still on a plateau for deaths.
Explanation 1: Part of this is overwhelmed coroner's offices for report issuances, so we will have to see if in retrospect this is an artifact. If the latter, then when cases are re-analyzed it'll show a sharper peak in deaths with a faster downslope like seen in the Northeast.
Explanation 2: The other possibility is better management of the acute instability we see with COVID ICU patients, with subsequent later deaths. This is called the second peak phenomena, where we got people through the acute illness but then some BS other problem takes them out during recovery (PE, heart attack, ventilator-associated pneumonia, etc). It sucks and happens often in critically ill patients who survive the initial sepsis. We are seeing more of these now.
From a case count perspective, I toss out anything from the first wave because the case count information is of such poor quality. Of course, considerable lag between infection and death is what we should expect when infections are logged in a more timely manner. A second reason death lag may be increasing is due to improved therapeutics, which can cause marginal patients to linger longer in the ICU before recovering or succumbing. This is less certain than the first factor and would require higher resolution data than I'm able to (lazily) get to falsify. Finally, the first wave was brought to a close through rather draconian measures which are unlikely to be repeated in the future. All states--whether heavily or marginally impacted--essentially brought things to a halt in unison, which explains much of the steep & sustained drop-off in deaths in the spring.

I don't think it's fair to call what is being observed in some of those states (CA, TX, FL, AZ) a plateau. In terms of 7 day average deaths/day, AZ is down almost 50% from peak, FL is down ~40% from peak, TX is down 20% (ignoring the end-of-July reporting anomaly still on worldometer), and CA is down 14%. The US aggregate peak is not down as much because the higher rates of spread and mortality have navigated to new states that were previously not heavily impacted. In each state so far, we are seeing a similar epidemiological curve that is turning over when the state reaches a certain level of infection and deaths/capita (behavioral changes and/or community immunity effects driving down Rt). My thesis is still that the latter effect is dominating in infection & death reductions because: Florida Man and 'Murica are real things that must be incorporated into the model. If you live in a locale that has high public health safety measures in place, don't assume that you can infer your bubble represents the public reaction in Macon, Georgia, for example.

Overall, as I argued elsewhere, a decline in average daily deaths to 600-700 is basically built into the US statistics at this point by late September. After that, it will increasingly depend on the magnitude of seasonal forcing of Rt versus the impacts of susceptibility and transmission heterogeneity in the population.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 10:35:13 PM by lost_in_the_endless_aisle »

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3713 on: August 28, 2020, 10:21:06 PM »
Most recently posted analysis of infection fatality rate using seroprevalence studies and case data suggest an overall 0.5% infection fatality ratio in Europe and US. The IFR seems to be base 10 logarithmic with age (1% amongst >65yo vs 0.01% amongst 20-30yo). The usual caveats about accuracy of source data and all apply, but that’s what we have currently.
Preprint is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1.full.pdf

Based on a 0.5% IFR and known COVID-19 deaths, about we're at about 180,000 * (1/0.05) = 40m infected in US.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 10:28:49 PM by Abe »

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3714 on: August 28, 2020, 11:08:31 PM »
We have quite good data here in Victoria. I posted about it upthread. It seems the death rate for over 80s is about 10-20% and the death rate for under 40s is about 0.03% so it is, as you say, probably a 10 fold rise per every 20 years of life.

Our chief health officer said up to 25% of nursing home residents who get the infection die.

Surprised the exponential nature of the death rate isn't better known / disseminated as it's one of the major features of the disease.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 11:10:10 PM by Bloop Bloop »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3715 on: August 28, 2020, 11:10:41 PM »
Most recently posted analysis of infection fatality rate using seroprevalence studies and case data suggest an overall 0.5% infection fatality ratio in Europe and US. The IFR seems to be base 10 logarithmic with age (1% amongst >65yo vs 0.01% amongst 20-30yo). The usual caveats about accuracy of source data and all apply, but that’s what we have currently.
Preprint is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1.full.pdf

Based on a 0.5% IFR and known COVID-19 deaths, about we're at about 180,000 * (1/0.05) = 40m infected in US.
Of course, the herd immunity thresholds cited in the underlying papers [e.g. this] are the "standard" assumptions which assume a homogeneous population and spherical cows, etc. The serology paper is interesting in its own right, nonetheless, but I wonder if antibodies don't still under-count the non-susceptible population based on t cell immunity and the temporally limited duration of IgG antibodies. Still, if IFR is 0.5% then the US has more like 44-45M infections to-date after accounting for the lag in infection-related deaths. Not a huge correction at this point but this consideration did matter a bit more earlier in the epidemic.

And careful, Abe--you are linking a paper that is not peer-reviewed. If you're not careful, GuitarStv will have a fit (because--I'm guessing--all non-peer-reviewed papers are false, and all peer-reviewed papers are true).

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3716 on: August 29, 2020, 03:10:26 AM »
Well, there we go, the Dear Leader's got himself another 6 months of ruling by decree without bothering with parliament in between.

Like a few people we know, we're looking at moving interstate. The thing about authoritarian regimes - or times of civil conflict - is that the first people to leave are the well-educated and well-off. That's one of the things that makes it so hard to rebuild after it's all over.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3717 on: August 29, 2020, 03:46:49 AM »
What I don't understand is why so many Victorians are still sucking Dan's....er, teat even after it's been well established that his hotel quarantine cost $130 million in taxpayers' money and was completely ineffectual. It's like there's no criticism of the government that can be countenanced. It was the same after 9/11 too, Americans just fell in line behind Bush, saying "we're all in this together", which as a slogan sounds good but makes utterly no sense. The problem with people "uniting" after tragedies is that it stifles important dissenting voices.

I was all in favour of a lockdown when cases were 300-700 per day - now I don't see the justification when cases have fallen under 100 and community transmission is 30-40 per day. That's totally manageable without preventing people from leaving the house to go to work.

The "let's be super risk-averse" strategy is not one that I can commend.

A lot of my usually very left-wing friends are starting to agree, too, because the numbers just don't stack up and the unseen toll of the lockdown, on households' finances and morale, is mounting. But, unlike Kyle I do think the government is aware of this and they are aware that sooner rather than later they will have to give citizens some of their freedoms back. Already I can see a lot more people disregarding social distancing and traffic is picking up and it's clear you cannot tell people to stay at home indefinitely especially when we are cottoning on that most of the transmission is in particular sectors or particular suburbs.

It may be that 30-80 cases per day, every day, between now and when we get a vaccine is a perfectly fine price to pay.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3718 on: August 29, 2020, 07:08:46 AM »
Most recently posted analysis of infection fatality rate using seroprevalence studies and case data suggest an overall 0.5% infection fatality ratio in Europe and US. The IFR seems to be base 10 logarithmic with age (1% amongst >65yo vs 0.01% amongst 20-30yo). The usual caveats about accuracy of source data and all apply, but that’s what we have currently.
Preprint is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1.full.pdf

Based on a 0.5% IFR and known COVID-19 deaths, about we're at about 180,000 * (1/0.05) = 40m infected in US.
Of course, the herd immunity thresholds cited in the underlying papers [e.g. this] are the "standard" assumptions which assume a homogeneous population and spherical cows, etc. The serology paper is interesting in its own right, nonetheless, but I wonder if antibodies don't still under-count the non-susceptible population based on t cell immunity and the temporally limited duration of IgG antibodies. Still, if IFR is 0.5% then the US has more like 44-45M infections to-date after accounting for the lag in infection-related deaths. Not a huge correction at this point but this consideration did matter a bit more earlier in the epidemic.

And careful, Abe--you are linking a paper that is not peer-reviewed. If you're not careful, GuitarStv will have a fit (because--I'm guessing--all non-peer-reviewed papers are false, and all peer-reviewed papers are true).


Peer review is not a gold standard.   It's more of an bronze standard.  :-)    The real gold standard is reproducibility and widespread acceptance.    Admittedly, getting through peer review is an entrance requirement to get to widespread acceptance, but as a first pass filter it's not terribly effective.

This is from personal experience.    I peer review and occasionally write technical papers.     Some very good papers don't pass peer review because the reviewers either have a personal dislike for the material or don't understand it's relevance.    Lots of low quality papers get through peer review because they have the right buzzwords for whatever happens to be trendy today.


Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3719 on: August 29, 2020, 07:15:23 AM »
Bloop has more faith in people than me. And he's a lawyer!


Before the invasion of Iraq, all Republicans believed Iraq had WMD. Afterwards, they believed they'd been found. As for Democrats, 72% thought Iraq had WMD - and afterwards only 26% admitted having believed in it. "I knew all along it was a lie!" - Mistakes Were Made, p.24.


It's going to be the same for the lockdown. Even if 20,000 Victorians die and the economy collapses, the ALP guys will say it was a brilliant idea. And everyone else will say, "oh yeah I knew it was bullshit."


The lockdowns will end when the federal money tap shuts off. Not before.



« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 11:19:47 PM by Kyle Schuant »

JGS1980

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 907
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3720 on: August 29, 2020, 09:52:46 AM »
Bloop has more faith in people than me. And he's a lawyer!


Before the invasion of Iraq, all Republicans believed Iraq had WMD. Afterwards, they believed they'd been found. As for Democrats, 72% thought Iraq had WMD - and afterwards only 26% admitted having believed in it. "I knew all along it was a lie!" - Mistakes Were Made, p.24.


It's going to be the same for the lockdown. Even if 20,000 Victorians die and the economy collapses, the ALP guys will say it was a brilliant idea. And everyone else will say, "oh yeah I knew it was bullshit."


The lockdowns will end when the federal money tap shuts off. Not before.

Bloop and Kyle, your perspectives are extremely interesting. Living the USA, I wish with all my heart that our leadership was as incompetent as you think your leadership is.

Shane

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1665
  • Location: Midtown
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3721 on: August 29, 2020, 05:40:43 PM »
Most recently posted analysis of infection fatality rate using seroprevalence studies and case data suggest an overall 0.5% infection fatality ratio in Europe and US. The IFR seems to be base 10 logarithmic with age (1% amongst >65yo vs 0.01% amongst 20-30yo). The usual caveats about accuracy of source data and all apply, but that’s what we have currently.
Preprint is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1.full.pdf

Based on a 0.5% IFR and known COVID-19 deaths, about we're at about 180,000 * (1/0.05) = 40m infected in US.
Of course, the herd immunity thresholds cited in the underlying papers [e.g. this] are the "standard" assumptions which assume a homogeneous population and spherical cows, etc. The serology paper is interesting in its own right, nonetheless, but I wonder if antibodies don't still under-count the non-susceptible population based on t cell immunity and the temporally limited duration of IgG antibodies. Still, if IFR is 0.5% then the US has more like 44-45M infections to-date after accounting for the lag in infection-related deaths. Not a huge correction at this point but this consideration did matter a bit more earlier in the epidemic.

And careful, Abe--you are linking a paper that is not peer-reviewed. If you're not careful, GuitarStv will have a fit (because--I'm guessing--all non-peer-reviewed papers are false, and all peer-reviewed papers are true).


Peer review is not a gold standard.   It's more of an bronze standard.  :-)    The real gold standard is reproducibility and widespread acceptance.    Admittedly, getting through peer review is an entrance requirement to get to widespread acceptance, but as a first pass filter it's not terribly effective.

This is from personal experience.    I peer review and occasionally write technical papers.     Some very good papers don't pass peer review because the reviewers either have a personal dislike for the material or don't understand it's relevance.    Lots of low quality papers get through peer review because they have the right buzzwords for whatever happens to be trendy today.

Apparently, the phenomenon you describe has been going on in the social "sciences" for quite some time. A couple of years ago, three academics set out to illustrate that fact by writing and getting published in prestigious peer-reviewed journals 20 academic papers that were all hoaxes. Here's an essay they wrote describing their project.


Quote
Something has gone wrong in the university—especially in certain fields within the humanities. Scholarship based less upon finding truth and more upon attending to social grievances has become firmly established, if not fully dominant, within these fields, and their scholars increasingly bully students, administrators, and other departments into adhering to their worldview. This worldview is not scientific, and it is not rigorous. For many, this problem has been growing increasingly obvious, but strong evidence has been lacking. For this reason, the three of us just spent a year working inside the scholarship we see as an intrinsic part of this problem.

We spent that time writing academic papers and publishing them in respected peer-reviewed journals associated with fields of scholarship loosely known as “cultural studies” or “identity studies” (for example, gender studies) or “critical theory” because it is rooted in that postmodern brand of “theory” which arose in the late sixties. As a result of this work, we have come to call these fields “grievance studies” in shorthand because of their common goal of problematizing aspects of culture in minute detail in order to attempt diagnoses of power imbalances and oppression rooted in identity.

We undertook this project to study, understand, and expose the reality of grievance studies, which is corrupting academic research. Because open, good-faith conversation around topics of identity such as gender, race, and sexuality (and the scholarship that works with them) is nearly impossible, our aim has been to reboot these conversations. We hope this will give people—especially those who believe in liberalism, progress, modernity, open inquiry, and social justice—a clear reason to look at the identitarian madness coming out of the academic and activist left and say, “No, I will not go along with that. You do not speak for me.”

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3722 on: August 29, 2020, 07:42:22 PM »
Yeah, didn't mean to rant on.      I really just meant to say that GuitarStv (if he was here and had commented!) would not be wrong in this comment about lack of peer review.    At this stage the bulk of the published material about covid-19 is better than speculation, but it's got a long process to follow to be accepted science or medicine.

marty998

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7372
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3723 on: August 29, 2020, 09:05:51 PM »
Bloop has more faith in people than me. And he's a lawyer!

Before the invasion of Iraq, all Republicans believed Iraq had WMD. Afterwards, they believed they'd been found. As for Democrats, 72% thought Iraq had WMD - and afterwards only 26% admitted having believed in it. "I knew all along it was a lie!" - Mistakes Were Made, p.24.

It's going to be the same for the lockdown. Even if 20,000 Victorians die and the economy collapses, the ALP guys will say it was a brilliant idea. And everyone else will say, "oh yeah I knew it was bullshit."


The lockdowns will end when the federal money tap shuts off. Not before.

Bloop and Kyle, your perspectives are extremely interesting. Living the USA, I wish with all my heart that our leadership was as incompetent as you think your leadership is.

Their perspectives are a minority based on the polls here.

It may be that 30-80 cases per day, every day, between now and when we get a vaccine is a perfectly fine price to pay.

The problem is it's not going to be 30-80 cases a day. It's either <20 a day in perpetuity (as it is in NSW) which allows the health system to contact trace immediately and put the community on notice to either isolate or avoid areas, or it very quickly spirals from 30 to 80 to 200 and 700 in a matter of weeks as was the case in Victoria.

You can only stop 50 a day with a stage 3 lockdown. You guys need to get it down below 20, there's really no other choice. Continuing to spout these stats about a minuscule proportion of young people dying ignores the strain on the health system that treating this disease costs, and the lingering after effects of having it on the unfortunate patient. You can't pretend that just because 0.03% die and 99.97% of young people who catch it don't means there is statistically no problem.

Well, there we go, the Dear Leader's got himself another 6 months of ruling by decree without bothering with parliament in between.

Like a few people we know, we're looking at moving interstate. The thing about authoritarian regimes - or times of civil conflict - is that the first people to leave are the well-educated and well-off. That's one of the things that makes it so hard to rebuild after it's all over.

This is ridiculous. He went to parliament to get that authority to extend those powers. By definition, that is not autocratic.

He wanted 12, the other side wanted rolling 1 months. Seems everyone met in the middle. Sounds exactly like representative democracy in action to me.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 09:08:01 PM by marty998 »

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3724 on: August 29, 2020, 09:29:44 PM »
I'd be happy with a stage 3 or stage 2.5 lockdown. Stage 4 is far more onerous. Particularly, the curfew and the closure of retail/manufacturing are very big set-backs compared to stage 2 and 3.

We got it down to well below 20 cases and the only thing that separated us from NSW (which has kept it low for months) is that we were extremely slow to contact trace; we gave bad advice to security guard contractors; we let security guard contractors break all sorts of rules and then, other than firing them, took no further action; and our government tried to cover it up. None of those things has anything to do with stage 2/3/4 restrictions, other than perhaps we need to continue curtailing the ability of high-risk workers to work at multiple sites, and we need to continue banning family get-togethers. Besides that, the rest of the stage 3/4 restrictions are mere optics when case numbers go below 100.

I'd be happy to stay at stage 3 lockdown for weeks, or stage 2 lockdown for months (though I doubt it'll get that far). None of that bothers me. Stage 4 has a steep mental and financial cost to a lot of workers, and that's the main issue.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3725 on: September 02, 2020, 03:21:05 AM »
The federal money is going to dry up in a few weeks - I'm glad the federal government resisted calls to keep the extremely generous payments forever - which just gives more impetus for Victoria to open up. You can't aim for "zero", you just have to aim for "good enough", which is what we're going to have to do. Open up retail and manufacturing and hospitality so we can get the economy going again and stop bleeding federal cash for furloughed workers.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3726 on: September 02, 2020, 05:00:54 PM »
Got a question for our Aussie friends. I read an article today about a pregnant woman who was arrested in Victoria for “incitement”. Apparently she decided to organize a protest of the lockdown restrictions via Facebook. What’s up with that?

I’m not so familiar with what civil liberties exist down under beyond the fact that you can be fined or potentially jailed for not voting. Are protests illegal in Oz?
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 05:07:49 PM by Buffaloski Boris »

HPstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2858
  • Age: 37
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3727 on: September 02, 2020, 05:08:25 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3728 on: September 02, 2020, 05:22:38 PM »
Got a question for our Aussie friends. I read an article today about a pregnant woman who was arrested in Victoria for “incitement”. Apparently she decided to organize a protest of the lockdown restrictions via Facebook. What’s up with that?

I’m not so familiar with what civil liberties exist down under beyond the fact that you can be fined or potentially jailed for not voting. Are protests illegal in Oz?

You're not allowed to incite others to commit illegal acts (and all protests are illegal under lockdown). Having said that, the police turned a blind eye to the massive Black Lives Matter protest which was also illegal under lockdown. So you know, it all comes down to optics in the end. I guess when Australia has a history of genocide against blacks and mistreating various non-white races you can understand why the current government would pay lip service to the BLM protest, but it still makes no sense from a good governance point of view.

Anyway, the current indication seems to be the government will extend stage 4 lockdown by another two weeks to September 27 (coincidentally when the federal helicopter money starts drying up). Again, I think it's all futile, and I think we should just immediately step down to stage 3 and keep stage 2.5 - 3 restrictions in till we get a vaccine. These restrictions would allow most workers to go back to their jobs but would disallow extended social gatherings. Instead the government seems to be driven by a desire to allow extended family gatherings at Christmas time - this was actually cited by our premier - but at the cost of a longer stage 4 lockdown, which costs jobs.

What's more important, reviving the economy or seeing grandma at Christmas? Fuck me, it should be a no brainer. Just learn to zoom grandma till the vaccine comes around, and learn to stay in nuclear family blocks.

Longwaytogo

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3138
  • Age: 43
  • Location: Merryland
  • It is what it is!!
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3729 on: September 02, 2020, 05:52:44 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3730 on: September 02, 2020, 07:50:57 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

sui generis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3104
  • she/her
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3731 on: September 02, 2020, 09:31:01 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

marty998

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7372
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3732 on: September 03, 2020, 07:43:24 AM »
Got a question for our Aussie friends. I read an article today about a pregnant woman who was arrested in Victoria for “incitement”. Apparently she decided to organize a protest of the lockdown restrictions via Facebook. What’s up with that?

I’m not so familiar with what civil liberties exist down under beyond the fact that you can be fined or potentially jailed for not voting. Are protests illegal in Oz?

There is some commentary that this young woman is neither “sophisticated” enough, nor well connected enough to talk her way out of the arrest, as others who committed similar acts have done.

A certain cretin of a television presenter was merely “advised” by police not to incite protests, whereas this woman who lacks the resources and public identity has worn the full force of the law for sharing a FB post.

There a multiple problems here as you can see. I don’t blame the police for enforcing a shit law. They have to enforce laws whether they are good or bad. I do blame the police for not being consistent in enforcing the law. They should either fine/arrest everyone or no one.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3733 on: September 03, 2020, 03:40:54 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

It confirmed that she broke the regulations in order to get a haircut.    Maybe she didn't know what the regulations were, but if anyone should know it would be her.

However.   By Trump's leadership standards she's a superior leader.

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1866
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3734 on: September 03, 2020, 04:45:36 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

It confirmed that she broke the regulations in order to get a haircut.    Maybe she didn't know what the regulations were, but if anyone should know it would be her.

However.   By Trump's leadership standards she's a superior leader.

The issue was, she didn't own up to it. She played the blame game - woe is me, I was set up blah blah blah. Why did Falwell Jr. get so much (completely deserved crap)? Because morality is part and parcel with his situation. In the grand scheme of things, this was very small, but by Pelosi both doing it and not just owning up to her mistake without playing the blame game, she will get legitimate accusations of hypocrisy. This will only lead people to even more think, oh, even the people that promote this stuff don't follow it. That's not what we need right now.

Longwaytogo

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3138
  • Age: 43
  • Location: Merryland
  • It is what it is!!
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3735 on: September 03, 2020, 05:06:01 PM »
The issue was, she didn't own up to it. She played the blame game - woe is me, I was set up blah blah blah. Why did Falwell Jr. get so much (completely deserved crap)? Because morality is part and parcel with his situation. In the grand scheme of things, this was very small, but by Pelosi both doing it and not just owning up to her mistake without playing the blame game, she will get legitimate accusations of hypocrisy. This will only lead people to even more think, oh, even the people that promote this stuff don't follow it. That's not what we need right now.

Yeah the hypocrisy is what is grating on me from politicians/celebrities/1 percenters. This was small thing, but it's on top of so many other things it starts to be really frustrating.

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3736 on: September 04, 2020, 07:44:48 AM »
By the way... here in Victoria...

One thousand LESS deaths in aged care nationally this year than last... because of better vaccination and infection control. 500 died from covid, but 1,500 fewer from other stuff

“If lower death rates were a secondary benefit of increased control measures, it raises the question whether a large number of preventable deaths have been occurring for years in aged care,” Professor Ibrahim said.

It turns out that when you look after older people properly, they don't die as much. Who could have anticipated this?

Could it be that rather than putting the entire state under house arrest, we could just look after the elderly and infirm properly? Rather than spending hundreds of billions in stimulus, we could just spend a few billion on aged care homes?

Nah. Much better to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and arrest pregnant women for planning a protest.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-nursing-home-death-toll-down-by-1000/news-story/1a951d8ab76edf3ab7804a7b54fd896f

Rosy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2742
  • Location: Florida
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3737 on: September 04, 2020, 09:01:47 AM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

It confirmed that she broke the regulations in order to get a haircut.    Maybe she didn't know what the regulations were, but if anyone should know it would be her.

However.   By Trump's leadership standards she's a superior leader.

Shrug - if the worst thing Fox News can come up with is a visit to a hair salon where Pelosi was the only and obviously well observed client then I'm tempted to think - it may well have been a set up.
Regardless - it is rules for thee - but not for me. Still, infinitely better than the actions by our favorite orange man.

Hair salons in Florida are open - as they are in other states. Just sayin'.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3738 on: September 04, 2020, 05:58:33 PM »
Yeah, I was wondering about that.   Could the hair stylist/salon owner have put together a mini-conspiracy to make her look bad?

She still should have owned it though.

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3739 on: September 04, 2020, 06:35:55 PM »
The Pelosi story is not on the level of, say, an unmasked campaign rally in Omaha, but it certainly is poor optics.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7335
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3740 on: September 04, 2020, 06:50:22 PM »
Yeah, I was wondering about that.   Could the hair stylist/salon owner have put together a mini-conspiracy to make her look bad?

She still should have owned it though.

It’s so obvious that’s what the owner did. I mean, it’s feed from their salon. Why would they have released it, knowing it would make them look bad, unless it was to smear Pelosi? And Pelosi’s stylist himself said that the owner unleashed a verbal tirade against Pelosi at time of booking.

Pelosi got caught up in a dumb mistake... she got set up. Personally, I see all these conservatives clutching their pearls about this like she was murdering babies, but these are the same people saying Covid is a hoax, so...

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3741 on: September 04, 2020, 07:00:38 PM »
I think it's stupid that Pelosi is being pillaged. She did something that was objectively low risk.

It's not hypocritical to do something that you advocate others not doing, if you're in different risk brackets.

A quarantine hotel security guard, and his family, should not be allowed to exercise in the community until all have had covid tests processed. A typical professional who works from home, isolated from co-workers, can happily exercise in the community. This is not hypocrisy. It's just double standards. But double standards, in most situations, make sense.

Humans like "fairness", i.e. a lack of double standards, but in most case it's ridiculously stupid not to impose double standards. Unless you think everyone has the same risk matrix regarding catching covid. Which is demonstrably not true, as seen from the fact that the covid hotspots have 20x the active cases compared to non hotspot suburbs.

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1866
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3742 on: September 05, 2020, 06:11:02 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 06:13:29 AM by Wolfpack Mustachian »

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3743 on: September 05, 2020, 06:50:25 AM »
By the way... here in Victoria...

One thousand LESS deaths in aged care nationally this year than last... because of better vaccination and infection control. 500 died from covid, but 1,500 fewer from other stuff

“If lower death rates were a secondary benefit of increased control measures, it raises the question whether a large number of preventable deaths have been occurring for years in aged care,” Professor Ibrahim said.

It turns out that when you look after older people properly, they don't die as much. Who could have anticipated this?

Could it be that rather than putting the entire state under house arrest, we could just look after the elderly and infirm properly? Rather than spending hundreds of billions in stimulus, we could just spend a few billion on aged care homes?

Nah. Much better to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and arrest pregnant women for planning a protest.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-nursing-home-death-toll-down-by-1000/news-story/1a951d8ab76edf3ab7804a7b54fd896f

Governments derive their power through the obedience of the governed, not their consent. Authoritarian measures aren't all that surprising.  I was a little surprised though at the poor optics of the police cuffing an obviously pregnant woman for organizing a political protest. More refined authoritarians would get her social media cut off, have a polite police officer write her a very expensive ticket, and then drag her into court at a later date well out of public view. 

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3744 on: September 05, 2020, 07:25:49 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1866
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3745 on: September 05, 2020, 08:08:41 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23128
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3746 on: September 05, 2020, 08:35:39 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I think it's fair to be upset that Pelosi didn't follow the rules.  WhT shedid appeared to be safe and low risk, but she damned well should have known better.  What I don't quite follow is how this is a win for the right in the US.

"A Democrat didn't follow a rule, and set a bad example!"

"Didn't a Republican say that coronavirus was the same as the flu, would've away by the end of spring, that there's no point in wearing masks, that social distancing is was less important than sending people back to non-essential leisure activities, that drinking bleach is a cure, that hdroxychloroquine is a cure, hold dangerous campaign rallies in areas with rapidly growing numbers of cases, telling police to refuse to enforce the law as it relates to mask wearing, and threaten to withhold aid from democratic parts of the country unless enough deference is paid?"

"See!  Both sides are the same!"

Pelosi did something stupid, and should be rightly reproached for it and should apologize for her mistake.  It isn't indicative of widespread Democratic action, or policy.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3747 on: September 05, 2020, 09:00:25 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1866
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3748 on: September 05, 2020, 10:54:26 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I think it's fair to be upset that Pelosi didn't follow the rules.  WhT shedid appeared to be safe and low risk, but she damned well should have known better.  What I don't quite follow is how this is a win for the right in the US.

"A Democrat didn't follow a rule, and set a bad example!"

"Didn't a Republican say that coronavirus was the same as the flu, would've away by the end of spring, that there's no point in wearing masks, that social distancing is was less important than sending people back to non-essential leisure activities, that drinking bleach is a cure, that hdroxychloroquine is a cure, hold dangerous campaign rallies in areas with rapidly growing numbers of cases, telling police to refuse to enforce the law as it relates to mask wearing, and threaten to withhold aid from democratic parts of the country unless enough deference is paid?"

"See!  Both sides are the same!"

Pelosi did something stupid, and should be rightly reproached for it and should apologize for her mistake.  It isn't indicative of widespread Democratic action, or policy.

I don't think it should be a "win" for the right for sure. It's not the same as what Trump's putting out for sure. "she damned well should have known better." - this is exactly where I'm at. You're one of the top 5 people with authority in the United States. Act like it...

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1866
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3749 on: September 05, 2020, 10:55:57 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.

It's beyond a partisan thing. It's a thing where one person is the leading representative of a group that promotes doing a certain thing. Then they're caught not doing that thing. Then they don't apologize but get all whiny when they're caught. You don't believe that all people should wear masks...that's fine. That's not what Pelosi is purportedly representing. That's the problem.