Whereas my prediction is that by the scheduled end of stage 4 on 13 September, we'll be seeing daily case numbers of around 50.
He said "single digits" or low tens would be what they want to see before lifting Stage 4. As for how long that'll take - at least till late October. Worldwide, the way down from peak to X cases takes about 1.7 times as long as it took to get up there, for example if it took 20 days to go from 10 to 100 daily cases, it'll take 20x 1.7 = 34 days to go from 100 to 10.
Let's look at the numbers.
https://www.covid19data.com.auLast time we had a 7 day average of 10 cases a day was June 14-15. The peak was 516 on August 2nd, which is 48 days.
Multiplying that by 1.7 gets us 82 days, and 82 days from August 2nd takes us to October 22nd.
However I think it'll extend beyond there (the x1.7 is just an average, some do a bit less, many do much more), because the spread isn't in the general community, it's in healthcare, aged care, meatworks and warehousing, and the lockdowns don't affect them. They've introduced measures which should slow spread, like reduced staff for meatworks and warehousing, etc, but those measures are not as strong in effect as those in the general population, ie Stage 4.
Community transmission was never big, so the main reason for the slowing of cases has been quite simply it running out of victims. If you have 50 residents in an aged care home and 50 staff, and the staff have 100 household members, that cluster may start with 30 victims, but it only has another 170 to run through before it fizzles out - and a certain number of people never get infected.
My prediction is that we'll go back to stage 3 at some point in September, and back to stage 2 in October. Whether this is staggered by area we'll find out.
I believe that's optimistic. I note that the state of emergency has a legislated limit of 6 months, so unless Andrews can persuade parliament otherwise, it ends on midnight September 13/14th - and
all measures with it (though they could keep hotel quarantine of new arrivals going after then). So he'll go back to parliament and try to force something through, which I'd expect he'd get.