I'm ever an optimist, which is probably why I'm not as good a lawyer as I could be. But it makes the rest of life much more pleasant.
Stage 4 is largely punitive for those office professionals and department store workers who are now stuck at home for no particular reason, but I actually support the curfew. It prevents unwanted family gatherings and social parties. You're not going to have a dinner party or a birthday party or a party for grandma if everyone has to park their cars 3 streets away and be done by 7.30pm. As far as I'm concerned the curfew can continue till the vaccine is found because it prevents extended gatherings and celebrations which are the backbone of community spread.
As for aged care, I think everyone who could have gotten infected has gotten infected, haven't they? The aged care number isn't important for assessing lockdown anyway, as Andrews has said he'll focus on community transmission.
As for the opening up debate, the fact is that Andrews also took a ridiculously hard stance (against opening up) in May, but within a couple of weeks of very low case numbers, he changed his tune. Politicians are ruled by sentiment. Right now when there are a lot of aged care residents dying, and we've had high case numbers, no one wants to ask the obvious, and crucial, question of when we can stop haemorrhaging money via the lockdowns. But give it two weeks, when unemployment mounts, and money gets tight, and we're having 50 cases a day only, and the tide will start turning.
I am confident that by September 13 we'll be back down to level 3, if not level 2.
As for what happens over Christmas, the best case scenario would be heavy enforcement of, and fines/jail time for, religious services and extended family gatherings to prevent a "third wave". But I agree with you that it's going to be a tough political sell. Hopefully people remember the importance of keeping to nuclear families and couples ONLY. If not, maybe we'll be able to escape Victoria for a little period and let the rest of the state lock down in January while we holiday in South Australia, or something. Because I agree that Christmas is going to be a real danger.