Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675127 times)

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3450 on: August 06, 2020, 07:13:38 AM »
Like I said, a fucking twilight zone episode.  Some people are living in a parallel reality, side by side with us in the real world.  I wish I could get out of threads like this.

I would spend so much more time on the MMM forum if there was a way to unsubscribe from threads that I've posted in.

C'est la vie. It makes the "new replies to your posts" view nearly useless because of how many 50-100+ page threads there are that I naively post in before I realize they're going to be that way.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3451 on: August 06, 2020, 07:25:14 AM »
Here are a couple randomizes studies that in fact show it does reduce in-hospital mortality. The first in Michigan, USA with 2,541 patients conducted mostly in March and April. The second in Milan, Italy with 539 patients conducted from February through May. Both included a control, hydroxychloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin (an antibiotic).

Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19
<snip>
That isn't a randomized study. It's a retrospective observational study. As yet, no randomized studies have demonstrated a benefit to HCQ, at least none that I'm aware of.

So does that make the results invalid or just less meaningful? Can you provide links to any randomized studies you are aware of? These are simply what I turned up in a few minutes searching on Google. I'm not a scientist or medical professional but these results are intriguing.

Randomized studies?

Quote
Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014

Quote
Hydroxychloroquine did not substantially reduce symptom severity in outpatients with mild, early COVID-19.
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4207

Quote
Current data do not support the use of hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis or treatment of COVID-19. There are no published trials of prophylaxis. Two trials of hydroxychloroquine treatment that are in the public domain, one non-peer reviewed, are premature analyses of trials whose conduct in both cases diverged from the published skeleton protocols registered on clinical trial sites. Neither they, nor three other negative trials that have since appeared, support the view that hydroxychloroquine is effective in the management of even mild COVID-19 disease.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-what-do-the-clinical-trials-tell-us/

Quote
In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with reductions in 28-day mortality but was associated with an increased length of hospital stay and increased risk of progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20151852v1
Quote
After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

Quote
There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-05-no-clinical-benefit-use-hydroxychloroquine-hospitalised-patients-covid-19



There's also this observational study of 1400 patients that shows no benefit to hydroxychloroquine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410).


Now, I'm not an infectious disease expert and there are tens of thousands of studies going on regarding treatments for Covid right now so I just trust the work of groups of scientists.  Right now most researchers and scientists are indicating that there's no benefit to hydroxychloroquine based on the available evidence.  This is why the WHO, FDA, NIH, etc. do not recommend using the drug to treat covid.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 07:45:27 AM by GuitarStv »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3452 on: August 06, 2020, 07:27:37 AM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3453 on: August 06, 2020, 07:50:26 AM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.


Can you imagine. A dumbfuck 19 year old with $14,000 in their pocket locked up in a five star hotel.

Buys a lot of cocaine for a weekend party which they happily invite the cute security guard to and away we go again.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3454 on: August 06, 2020, 07:53:48 AM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.


Can you imagine. A dumbfuck 19 year old with $14,000 in their pocket locked up in a five star hotel.

Buys a lot of cocaine for a weekend party which they happily invite the cute security guard to and away we go again.

Is cocaine on the room service menu in Australia, or would the dumbfuck 19 year old need to already know a dealer?  :P

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3455 on: August 06, 2020, 09:50:50 AM »
Excuse me, this hotel is being used to quarantine positive covid cases, what are you doing here?  Oh I'm here to deliver cocaine.  Oh, ok, proceed then, here is a key card.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3456 on: August 06, 2020, 10:51:02 AM »
No need to guess, we have a great example from February.  Trump said the virus was a problem, shut down travel from the Wuhan area, and the democrats said he was Xenophobic and to keep congregating in bars and come on down to Chinatown, no need to worry about a virus.  They were already calling him authoritarian and fascist, had he tried to invoke any kind of national order (masks, travel restrictions, etc.) there's have been a huge outcry.

You should read this, even though you won't: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/

Did, did you read it?  Or do you think Trump should have banned American citizens from returning, and did you think that in January?
He shut down nothing.  I have coworkers who came back to the US from China (they are Chinese citizens who live and work here).  They just flew in through other countries.  One of them came back from Wuhan.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3457 on: August 06, 2020, 11:02:40 AM »
Personally, I always find your exercise posts inspiring/motivating, @mm1970. Agree with your POV. Personally if I don't keep switching up goals/activities, I get bored and blubbery LOL.
Same.  I've always been that way. Except for the couple years of straight up running...(I guess I did that on two separate occasions), I switch things up a lot.  It's more fun that way.

Funny that MMMs new blog post touches on that too, the "sweet spot" for exercise.

Samuel

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3458 on: August 06, 2020, 11:03:10 AM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.


I'm certain more than a few people would be intentionally trying to get COVID if it came with $14k. Careful what you incentivize...

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3459 on: August 06, 2020, 11:07:12 AM »
Quote
In a longitudinal study in the UK of many thousands of men, they tested their strength (by bench press and leg press), cardiovascular fitness and recorded everything else about them health-wise. Then waited 15-20 years to see who died, and of what.

The bottom third in strength were much more likely to get cancer and die from other causes (falls, etc), but strength made no difference to heart disease. The bottom third in endurance were much more likely to die of all causes. Interestingly, being in the top third gave them no benefit in reducing mortality. I would still encourage it, since being stronger and fitter can improve quality of life, even if not quantity - but that's the stats: just don't be in the bottom third.

The boring government advice of 150-300' moderate or 75-150' vigorous endurance work weekly, and 2-3 muscle strengthening sessions, along with the dietary guidelines, are more than sufficient to keep people out of the bottom third of strength and endurance.
I liked these points.

I remember reading once that a group studied older people and walking pace.  They could predict, with fairly good accuracy, how long the elderly would live based on how long it took them to walk a mile.  >30 minutes was not good.  There was a similar study that focused on "getting up off the floor" (unaided, with your hands to boost you up, using furniture, etc.)

My FIL is 77 and he recently worked to lose about 15 lbs because he was at his highest weight ever.  He's been walking and doing yoga, but was complaining to my husband that even though he's the same weight he was X number of years ago, he still has a spare tire because he's lost muscle.  Which: duh.

Even at 77, he could and should probably do some weight training (in addition to the yoga).  He's got rheumatoid arthritis though, which may impact him a bit.

gaja

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3460 on: August 06, 2020, 01:20:12 PM »
This is fantastic: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/map-and-travel-notices.html

"COVID-19 risk in Norway is high.
If you get sick in Norway and need medical care, resources may be limited."

Uh, ok? In total, 8 persons were admitted to hospital due to corona in Norway last week, 1 was admitted to ICU, and 1 person died. We are not at capacity yet. Due to tourist season we are seeing a small surge in cases, but nothing compared to US levels. But maybe this is the easiest way to convince US citizens to avoid travelling to countries were they will be denied entry?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3461 on: August 06, 2020, 01:27:36 PM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.


I'm certain more than a few people would be intentionally trying to get COVID if it came with $14k. Careful what you incentivize...

Millions of people are already getting it for free with absolutely no positive incentive.  Most of them seemingly intentionally. 

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3462 on: August 06, 2020, 01:43:43 PM »
Quote
In a longitudinal study in the UK of many thousands of men, they tested their strength (by bench press and leg press), cardiovascular fitness and recorded everything else about them health-wise. Then waited 15-20 years to see who died, and of what.

The bottom third in strength were much more likely to get cancer and die from other causes (falls, etc), but strength made no difference to heart disease. The bottom third in endurance were much more likely to die of all causes. Interestingly, being in the top third gave them no benefit in reducing mortality. I would still encourage it, since being stronger and fitter can improve quality of life, even if not quantity - but that's the stats: just don't be in the bottom third.

The boring government advice of 150-300' moderate or 75-150' vigorous endurance work weekly, and 2-3 muscle strengthening sessions, along with the dietary guidelines, are more than sufficient to keep people out of the bottom third of strength and endurance.
I liked these points.

I remember reading once that a group studied older people and walking pace.  They could predict, with fairly good accuracy, how long the elderly would live based on how long it took them to walk a mile.  >30 minutes was not good.  There was a similar study that focused on "getting up off the floor" (unaided, with your hands to boost you up, using furniture, etc.)

My FIL is 77 and he recently worked to lose about 15 lbs because he was at his highest weight ever.  He's been walking and doing yoga, but was complaining to my husband that even though he's the same weight he was X number of years ago, he still has a spare tire because he's lost muscle.  Which: duh.

Even at 77, he could and should probably do some weight training (in addition to the yoga).  He's got rheumatoid arthritis though, which may impact him a bit.

I'm going live to 100+ then. I've been on a base walking virtually everywhere for the last 9 months. In all that time only a single person has ever caught up to me and no one has ever passed me. Maybe it's the fact that it's usually 100+ degrees but everyone around me seems to walk so damn slow. I'd pass people on the way from the dining facility to my room (about 1,000 feet) and look back and they were still hundreds of feet behind me.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3463 on: August 06, 2020, 01:57:00 PM »
Like I said, a fucking twilight zone episode.  Some people are living in a parallel reality, side by side with us in the real world.  I wish I could get out of threads like this.

Stupid people are stupid. Watchagonnado......

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3464 on: August 06, 2020, 02:05:13 PM »
Just get a squeeze ball or one of those old school spring hand exerciser thingies, you'll be immortal!

https://www.clinicaladvisor.com/home/topics/rheumatology-information-center/hand-grip-strength-associated-with-all-cause-mortality-other-adverse-outcomes/

-W

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3465 on: August 06, 2020, 07:01:00 PM »
I'm certain more than a few people would be intentionally trying to get COVID if it came with $14k. Careful what you incentivize...
How? The cases would all be in quarantine.

Meanwhile...

#coronapanic in Victoria
Now we're arresting people for planning peaceful protests.

"The "Melbourne Freedom March" is planned for Sunday with attendees claiming their rights are being compromised by coronavirus restrictions. They charged a 41-year-old man from Mooroolbark with incitement. The offence, in the Crimes Act, involves a person inciting someone else to pursue a course of conduct which will involve the commission of an offence.The man was bailed and is due to appear at the Melbourne Magistrates Court on January 21 next year."

************

"Prisoners of conscience – someone has not used or advocated violence but is imprisoned because of who they are (sexual orientation, ethnic, national or social origin, language, birth, colour, sex or economic status) or what they believe (religious, political or other conscientiously held beliefs)."

https://www.amnesty.org/en/what-we-do/detention/

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3466 on: August 06, 2020, 07:17:54 PM »
I'm certain more than a few people would be intentionally trying to get COVID if it came with $14k. Careful what you incentivize...
How? The cases would all be in quarantine.

Meanwhile...

#coronapanic in Victoria
Now we're arresting people for planning peaceful protests.

"The "Melbourne Freedom March" is planned for Sunday with attendees claiming their rights are being compromised by coronavirus restrictions. They charged a 41-year-old man from Mooroolbark with incitement. The offence, in the Crimes Act, involves a person inciting someone else to pursue a course of conduct which will involve the commission of an offence.The man was bailed and is due to appear at the Melbourne Magistrates Court on January 21 next year."

************

"Prisoners of conscience – someone has not used or advocated violence but is imprisoned because of who they are (sexual orientation, ethnic, national or social origin, language, birth, colour, sex or economic status) or what they believe (religious, political or other conscientiously held beliefs)."

https://www.amnesty.org/en/what-we-do/detention/

Strange. They didn't charge the organisers of the Black Lives Matter protests with incitement.

Guess optics reigns supreme everywhere.

I wouldn't be supporting any protests in the current Melbourne climate at all. But different groups should be treated equally.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3467 on: August 06, 2020, 07:40:02 PM »
Well that’s one take I guess

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3468 on: August 06, 2020, 09:00:45 PM »
Strange. They didn't charge the organisers of the Black Lives Matter protests with incitement.
They let the BLM protests go ahead, then charged three of the organisers afterwards with ordinary covid stuff, not incitement.

This pro-democracy protest they charged two organisers first, obviously in the hopes that the protest won't happen. With 18,500 police in the state and the 5km travel limit they should be able to stop it before it starts, just put cops en masse at train stations etc.

Dan Andrews is Victoria's Sir Joh. And as enthusiastically as the Nats supporters embraced their loss of freedoms, so too are the ALP supporters here. And in both cases, the Opposition were useless.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3469 on: August 07, 2020, 04:19:02 AM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.


Can you imagine. A dumbfuck 19 year old with $14,000 in their pocket locked up in a five star hotel.

Buys a lot of cocaine for a weekend party which they happily invite the cute security guard to and away we go again.

Is cocaine on the room service menu in Australia, or would the dumbfuck 19 year old need to already know a dealer?  :P

The security guards were also dumbfuck 19 year olds who by all reports seemed like they probably were dealers.

Bears pointing out that it is rare in history that two people have immediately fucked an entire state by...fucking. But here we are.

You could call it a Sexually transmitted disaster...
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 04:20:47 AM by marty998 »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3470 on: August 07, 2020, 04:20:44 AM »
Fortunately the defection rate for positive tests and close contacts has gone below 15% from about 25% previously.

1050 tests conducted yesterday and only 150 not at home

Still you wonder what those 150 people were doing? Not working; you have to work from home. Not exercising; though the rest of us are allowed to exercise, positive tests and close contacts are not.

I suspect if you door knocked 1050 of the general population (not even subject to positive tests, therefore not legally forced to stay at home) you'd get a compliance rate higher than that.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3471 on: August 07, 2020, 04:21:47 AM »
$1 billion to save and free us all in Victoria
Since those awaiting test results (up to 10 days in some instances, typically 2-5) and those testing positive are now required to not leave their homes for any non-emergency medical reason on pain of a large fine, we can expect a drop in testing rates. This is not what we want.
Rather than stick, let's try carrot.
1. get tested
2. if test negative, go on your way
3. if testing positive, you and your dependents go to hotel quarantine
4. for which you get $14,000, tax-free (not your dependents)
5. if you test negative twice in the last two days, after 14 days you can leave
6. if you refuse a test, that's fine, you stay another 14 days - still getting the original $14,000, but no more
7. give this $14k to anyone hospitalised with covid, too, why not.
This approach would give time and space for cases to come down, and almost everyone covid positive would go into hotel quarantine. People would want to get tested. This would also have the effect of reaching into marginalised communities - I don't care how little English that Sudanese single mother in Dandenong speaks, she'd hear about this and get tested.
There are currently 7,227 active cases in Victoria, giving this a total price tag of $101 million. Let's be pessimistic and assume stage 4 restrictions don't sort it out for us and we get 5 times as many cases, and let's continue to have the state pay for the hotel accommodation, and say it costs a round $1 billion.
Current state govt deficit: $10 billion
Commonwealth FY 2019-20 deficit: $86 billion
2020-21: $184 billion
Expected loss to Victorian economy for stage 4 to September 1st: $9 billion.
This is cheaper and much less drama. For a billion bucks, we could encourage everyone to get tested, and voluntarily lock themselves up for 2-4 weeks each.
We could, then, ease back the restrictions on the rest of the state, and do away with the authoritarian divisiveness of fining and dobbing on and wagging a moral finger at everyone.


Can you imagine. A dumbfuck 19 year old with $14,000 in their pocket locked up in a five star hotel.

Buys a lot of cocaine for a weekend party which they happily invite the cute security guard to and away we go again.

Is cocaine on the room service menu in Australia, or would the dumbfuck 19 year old need to already know a dealer?  :P

The security guards were also dumbfuck 19 year olds who by all reports seemed like they probably were dealers.

Bears pointing out that it is rare in history that two people have immediately fucked an entire state by...fucking. But here we are.

You could call it a Sexually transmitted disaster...

How do you know this Marty? I know there are rumours floating around but is there any cogent source?

If it's true, the guards should be named and shamed.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3472 on: August 07, 2020, 05:08:18 AM »
1050 tests conducted yesterday and only 150 not at home

Still you wonder what those 150 people were doing?
It helps that I've a daughter who's a paramedic, and know several doctors, people working in the health department and someone working in Victoria Police. They've given me the story.

The federal health dept reports that in the last week of July about 6% of the covid+ ended up in hospital; worldwide the average is 20%, but that's probably an overestimate since many countries test poorly.

The Department of Health and Human Services administers tests and keeps their results, passing the list of covid+ people directly to ESTA, which is the unit dispatching emergency services to here and there. However, despite managing hospitals, the DHHS does not pass on lists of hospitalised people to the police, and the DHHS and ESTA otherwise have no communication, as that would violate patient privacy (patient privacy was one of the contributing factors to the spread in meatworks, as DHHS could not tell a workplace that So-And-So had tested positive).

Thus, of the 1,150 people whose door was knocked on, 69 to 250 could be expected to actually be in hospital. 150 is bang in the middle of that.

As well, the DHHS in some cases has given lists of covid+ names to ESTA before notifying the individual involved, and people awaiting test results (typically 2-5 days, but a bit under 10% had to wait 10 days for results) are not required to self-isolate if they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic - which at least 80% of people are. Police have thus knocked on someone's door, "We're just checking to see if you as a covid positive person are home as required, good to see," and the person's replied, "I tested positive? They didn't tell me yet."

There have also been a number of cases where an aged care resident had a relative's address as their mailing address, as that person handled all their correspondence, bills and so on, and the police knocked on that door.

And there are of course a small fraction of actually wrong addresses and numbers recorded in the system. A friend of mine had to pursue the DHHS for her test results after 6 days, it took her another 5 days to discover that they'd got one number in her mobile phone number wrong; the system didn't allow them to correct this and she had to take a second test. She was mildly symptomatic and thus not required to self-isolate while awaiting results, had the police knocked on her door one day they might have found her out at the shops.

Between the hospitalised, those awaiting test results and wrong addresses, I'm impressed the no-answer rate is only 13%.

This is known in government, however it's not talked about because it doesn't fit the narrative, which is that "Victorians are irresponsible, so we have to have this tough lockdown." If in fact the people are almost all following the rules, and yet we still have rising infections, then that indicates that

either: the lockdowns are ineffective, and something else needs to be tried
or: this virus is going to be with us for a long time, and we have to find a way to live with it

since neither of those conclusions support the narrative, the data - that Victorians are in fact adhering very closely to the restrictions - is ignored or denied.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 05:09:59 AM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3473 on: August 07, 2020, 06:00:57 AM »
But if we are actually adhering closely to the restrictions, how did the case numbers jump from <30 to >700?

I know there were massive clusters in meat works, the Islamic school, aged care centres, hospitals and certain suburbs. Is that all that's driving the spread? If so, why lock down retail businesses and all the other suburbs?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3474 on: August 07, 2020, 07:54:14 AM »
Yes, it's mostly those places.

The ABC has a good, regularly-updated page that shows the clusters and much other information. Relevant to your question is the clusters, for example St Basil's alone is currently associated with 172 cases.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

It helps to understand that the DHHS does not actually call it "community transmission", they call it unknown connections "which may indicate community transmission," more specifically they call it "acquired in Australia, unknown source." The news reports take out the "may", just as when Sutton said it was "conceivable" that most or all the current cases came from the hotel quarantine, they took out the "conceivable."

If you watch the figures closely you'll find they go down, for example today may say 400 such cases, then tomorrow the news reports that there are 100 more, but now the total is... 460? It's because 40 were resolved.

Infection like so many other things follows an 80/20 rule, usually not literally so, but a majority of events (income, infection, etc) coming from a minority of people (customers, infected, whatever). A study in Vic in May of 1,200 or so cases concluded that 9% of people caused 91% of infections - one guy who worked at 3 hospitality venues infected 76 other people.

Thus, superspreading events make up the bulk of new infections. As a fictional scenario, imagine:

June 1st: Ravi works as a security guard at hotel quarantine. Lacking proper PPE and training, he acquires covid from a resident there.
June 3rd: Ravi is asymptomatic and only slightly infectious. He has lunch with 5 other security guards. He rubs his nose with his knuckle and passes the salt to one of them, who passes it his buddy. Now Andy and Bob are infected.
June 5th: Ravi is now symptomatic. He calls in sick. He now has enough viral load to pass it to his wife Malika, who passes it to her children.
June 7th: Having had symptoms for a couple of days, Ravi now goes and gets tested. The DHHS respects his privacy and does not inform his workplace that he is infected. Ravi's boss isn't stupid so passes the word around anyway.

Neither Andy nor Bob are yet symptomatic, well Bob has some congestion and headaches but he often gets hayfever so he thinks nothing of it. Asymptomatic people are refused testing (unless they are close contacts of someone known to be covid+, healthcare or aged care workers, see here). Andy and Bob don't count as close contacts, but their boss is cautious so they sit around watching TV for two weeks at home, just occasionally popping out to the shops - contacts of covid+ are still not, to this day, required to stay inside all day. If my wife is sick and I'm caring for her, I can still go out.

Andy lives alone but is a friendly guy who shakes hands with people, including a guy at his building Charlie, who has a son Ginger who goes to the local school. This son plays rugby and often gets into other people's faces. When Ginger gets sick and tests positive, his dad probably will, too - Ginger's infection source is known. But Charlie's infection source will be unknown, because contact tracers will never find out he shook hands with Andy, and anyway Andy never got a test so he won't be on the system.

Bob has a wife Dina, who works in aged care. By coincidence, so does Malika. When Malika infects her aged care home, they will pretty quickly figure out that it was her tested covid+ husband Ravi who was the source of her infection. But when Dina infects her aged care home, because Bob was never tested, they won't know for sure she got it from - since he worked with Ravi, they'll suspect - but they won't know. And they'll wonder if it was maybe someone else who worked at the aged care home who gave it to Dina, or even one of the residents after a family member visited.

And so within 10 days, the initial infection of one person has led to the infection of 10-20 others, and because of their work, it risks infection of 100-200 others. The cases are unknown origin because they can't trace them that quickly. They have to go through all those people, every resident of the aged care homes, all the people who worked with and visited them, and all the people who worked with or visited those people - and they'll probably never catch that handshake in the hallway, or the salt shaker that was passed around.

Now, if we have 50 new infections a day then the contact tracers can pretty much keep on track of it. But if we have 500, they can't. And so as we get more cases we get more "acquired in Australia, unknown source", which may be community transmission - but it may not be. We just don't know for sure.

And this is half the reason for the lockdown - in the hopes of slowing things enough that the contact tracers can keep up. The other half is the natural authoritarianism of Australians, and the good old ordinary government thing of, "something must be done, this is something, therefore it must be done." That's why the Premier went beyond the advice of the Chief Health Officer in ordering Stage 4, and why even the DHHS can't really say clearly why we need a curfew.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-07/will-melbournes-stage-4-curfews-be-effective-against-coronavirus/12520994

The troubles with contact tracing is one reason they do genomic sequencing analyses. So they can say that X infected Y and Z, and Y infected A, B and C, while Z infected no-one. Genomic analyses is a bit faster than contact tracing but it's still always a couple of weeks behind, unfortunately. The Chief Health Officer has this genomic data but can't release it without the Premier's say-so, and the Premier says it's the CHO's data and not for him to speculate on because there's an ongoing inquiry and...

If the genomic data indicated that most of the infections came from community transmission, and from outside hotel quarantine, I think we can be sure they'd be released - because they'd support the Stage 4 restrictions. So we must conclude that the genomic data indicates it all started with the hotels.

That doesn't really matter now, except inasmuch as we can get the government to, if not avoid making mistakes, at least not make the same mistakes again. The point is that even with everyone doing the right thing according to the rules, this virus can still churn rapidly through households, who then go on to infect co-workers and customers and patients and so on.

But it doesn't really matter to most of us if we get infected. 80% have no or mild symptoms. What matters is that we keep it away from the vulnerable. That's why there have been hundreds of cases at meatworks but very few deaths from them, whereas the aged care infections have been most of the deaths. Unfortunately, we are still not keeping it away from the vulnerable. The most obvious current failing is that if an aged care resident tests positive, they are NOT sent to hospital until they actually require hospitalisation - typically ICU. Thus, you have aged care staff working in a non-hospital setting with a person offering them a high viral load.

Now, those aged care staff have had poor PPE and training, which can be remedied somewhat. But even when the federal government deployed their AUSMAT team to St Basil's, several of them got infected. The most highly-trained, well-equipped medical staff we have got infected. What hope then does an aged care worker have? They're going to get infected, and they're going to pass it on.

Other states take them out the moment they test positive, and stick them in hospital. Most of them require ICU in 3-7 days anyway. But those are 3-7 very high viral load days.

As I mentioned earlier, Sutton himself didn't support going to stage 4, because it didn't address the areas where the spread is happening. This is what's now happening in the next month,

- Schools: all closed, and children aren't very infectious to their households, so cases will DROP
- Meatworks: reduced staff and full PPE, but the staff will still infect their households, and they'll still socialise in the workplace somewhat, so cases will STEADY
- Healthcare: already using the best PPE and training they can, but facing a high viral load so some still get infected, and as they go off work they're replaced with "surge" staff who have less training, mistakes will happen, though fewer over time, so cases will RISE
- Aged care: staff are now no longer permitted to work at several centres, and most though not all staff now have PPE, but only about 1/3 have completed the online course the federal government has offered, and it's only an online course so won't do much good. They continue to keep covid+ residents in the residence until they need hospital, so cases will RISE - a lot

By mid-September we will see daily new cases a bit over 200, and we'll see an extra 200-300 deaths, mostly connected with aged care. As usual the state government has not stated the precise criteria for easing or increasing restrictions, but last time it took a couple of weeks of 10-20 new cases a day before they did so. That won't be the six weeks of stage 4 currently planned for.

As I mentioned earlier, from imposition of restrictions to their easing in the first lockdown was 87 days, if that happened this time then it'd be October 25th. I'd expect cases to still be 50-100 a day at that point, and probably simmer along at that level for some time. The numbers won't justify opening up in December, but it'll be politically hard not to, as nobody wants to be the Premier who cancelled Christmas - unless we have 100 people a day dying or something, at the least they'd have to reopen retail. And of course, whatever the rules say, people will see their extended families at Christmas, between the shopping and the gatherings there'll be a new surge of cases and a fresh panic in the New Year.

This will be simmering along for a long time yet. And even if we opened up tomorrow, the economic and social effects will take years to get over, and excess deaths from other causes will be significant.

Think of it this way: even DPRK, who has iron control over its border, and whose people live in perpetual lockdown, where the state can simply grab them and carry them off for execution without cause - even that level of lockdown hasn't kept the virus out. They won't say, but they most likely have thousands infected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53541730

A lockdown can be useful in buying time to boost healthcare capacity, and in buying time for contact tracing and the like. But it'll never eliminate the virus. (Before anyone says, "But New Zealand -" yeah, just wait, Victoria thought it had it under control, too.) No, this does not mean "let it rip." But I think that Sweden had the right idea, not necessarily in its precise measures or lack thereof, but in asking: "Whatever measures we put in we have to be prepared to keep going with for three years. What are the things we're willing to do for three years?"

I am willing to go for three years with bans on gatherings of over 50 people, masks encouraged but not mandated, not more than 1 customer per 4 square metres and that sort of thing.

I am not willing to go for three years with a suspended parliament, a curfew, an hour a day for exercise, nobody coming around for dinner, not seeing my elderly mother, and my children unable to use the playground.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 07:57:39 AM by Kyle Schuant »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3475 on: August 07, 2020, 10:15:41 AM »

A lockdown can be useful in buying time to boost healthcare capacity, and in buying time for contact tracing and the like. But it'll never eliminate the virus. (Before anyone says, "But New Zealand -" yeah, just wait, Victoria thought it had it under control, too.) No, this does not mean "let it rip." But I think that Sweden had the right idea, not necessarily in its precise measures or lack thereof, but in asking: "Whatever measures we put in we have to be prepared to keep going with for three years. What are the things we're willing to do for three years?"

I am willing to go for three years with bans on gatherings of over 50 people, masks encouraged but not mandated, not more than 1 customer per 4 square metres and that sort of thing.

I am not willing to go for three years with a suspended parliament, a curfew, an hour a day for exercise, nobody coming around for dinner, not seeing my elderly mother, and my children unable to use the playground.


Anders Tegnell, etal, readily admit that they made some mistakes: 1) Didn't lock down aged care homes quickly or effectively enough. 2) Didn't do a good enough job at communicating with their immigrant communities. What I like about the Swedes' strategy, though, is that they designed it from the beginning to be sustainable for the long(er) term. Yeah, Sweden lost more people in the beginning than its neighbors, but what the Swedes are doing, by design, can be easily sustained for years if necessary. Complete lockdowns, school closures, etc., cannot, by definition, be sustained for very long, at all. When we look back at various countries' responses to covid, 5 or 10 years from now, whose strategy will have worked the best is still completely up in the air, IMHO.

Spud

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3476 on: August 07, 2020, 12:03:26 PM »
Check out Sweden's deaths at the moment. They've definitely turned a corner.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3477 on: August 07, 2020, 01:04:25 PM »
^ clearly a bad strategy /s

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3478 on: August 07, 2020, 02:14:56 PM »
Yeah, those crazy Swedes are so irresponsible! Lucky we didn't follow their stupid strategy in the US! /s

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kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3480 on: August 07, 2020, 03:19:28 PM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita. again, i'm sure they're not great there, but they didn't shut down and of course will be on the higher end. and, we're still in the early stages of this.

the only way the sweden approach doesn't "win" in the end is if a vaccine is developed very early and is able to be distributed over the world quickly. otherwise, all countries will either face eternal lockdowns/self-quarantines or will end up with sweden's death rate (per capita)

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3481 on: August 07, 2020, 03:32:48 PM »
Check out Sweden's deaths at the moment. They've definitely turned a corner.

Yes and very unlikely to have a second wave.  It will be interesting to see if they made the right long term call.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3482 on: August 07, 2020, 03:36:02 PM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita.

Well, death rate per infection is really what matters.  Case data doesn't give us that.

Telecaster

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3483 on: August 07, 2020, 04:00:51 PM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita. again, i'm sure they're not great there, but they didn't shut down and of course will be on the higher end. and, we're still in the early stages of this.

the only way the sweden approach doesn't "win" in the end is if a vaccine is developed very early and is able to be distributed over the world quickly. otherwise, all countries will either face eternal lockdowns/self-quarantines or will end up with sweden's death rate (per capita)

There are a number of other ways Sweden doesn't "win" in the end.  First, they've already experienced a significantly higher death rate than their peer nations, like Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Germany, and even the EU as whole.  And it isn't close.  Yet their economy has contracted by about the same amount as their peer nations.  The previously mentioned nations have been able to open up in a responsible way, with schools open in Denmark, bier gardens open in Germany, etc. backed up by robust testing and contact tracing.  And anti-body testing shows that Sweden isn't even in the same zip code as herd immunity.  It is hard to see that Sweden gained any benefit at all. 

Next, in just a few short months much has been learned how to treat the disease.   Treatments like Remdesivir and Dexamethasone others, while not panaceas, have greatly reduced the fatality rate.  Your chances of surviving COVID are straight up better today than they were a few months ago.  In the next few months we should see effective anti-viral drugs and anti-body treatments as well.

To put it another way, Sweden has had five to ten times the death rate per capita as peer nations yet suffered equal economic damage.  You can regain economic losses.  The people who are dead are dead forever.  That is a true cost in human suffering.  And even absent an effective vaccine, new treatments have made COVID much more survivable.  So yes, kicking the can down the road has value. 

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3484 on: August 07, 2020, 07:26:48 PM »

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

Still a 7% death rate for Sweden overall.

They're massively undertesting, a bit under 60 tests per 1,000 people vs neighbouring Denmark with 252. But that doesn't matter. What matters is how many died from it - and how many more or less died from other causes. You lock things down and maybe less people die from the virus, but maybe more people die from cancer, heart disease, suicide and so on. Either way you're dead in the end, question is what's the overall toll or difference. If we save 1,000 lives from covid but lose 2,000 to cancer, etc, then we did it wrong. And vice versa. If we save 1,000 covid lives but lose 1,000 others, then we may as well not have bothered, it comes out even in the end.


Overall excess deaths is what we need to look at to assess the value of a country's approach, then we can look at other factors like demographics to decide how much was their approach and how much was just luck.

All countries have recorded excess deaths - except, interestingly, Norway and South Africa. I don't know about Norway but evidently South Africa's ban on a lot of movement and closing liquor stores has helped them more than covid has hurt them - but then, they're a young country. Sweden's in the middle of the pack for excess deaths. They're a lot worse than Denmark and Norway, who had lockdowns - but a lot better than Italy, Spain, UK and so on who had even fiercer lockdowns.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries


So the lockdown itself is neither here nor there. There are other aspects to it. Some are things you can't change, like demographics - a country with an average age of 47yo, like Italy, was always going to do worse than a country with an average age of 39yo like Norway. Other things you can change, like how quickly you close your borders, how well do your systems work, and so on.

Medical systems aren't just the doctors and nurses. It's things like contact tracing, too. We don't know the official average here in Australia as apparently nobody has thought to track it, which means it'll be woeful. But basically: if I am infectious today, you want to be able to talk to my close contacts today, too, ideally. Every day you wait gives them another day to unknowingly infect others.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/it-s-dire-contract-tracing-delays-threaten-coronavirus-fight-20200807-p55jm0.html

And that, I think, is part of the reason for the lockdown we're suffering now in Victoria - a desperate attempt to get a handle on things, and keep new cases low enough that they can track their contacts. This is one reason that Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have kept cases so low while barely locking anything down - from their previous experience with SARS they had good contact tracing systems. They got right onto things, meanwhile we were faffing about wondering about what would happen to the footy season.

We were unwilling to learn from success. This, unfortunately, is a trait of the Anglosphere - we know best, can't possibly learn from those foreign buggers. America's the worst example of it, but the UK and Australia do it too.

Perhaps the mass graves we've dug will give us pause to reconsider.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 07:38:21 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3485 on: August 07, 2020, 07:59:15 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3486 on: August 07, 2020, 08:22:59 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

It's to keep withdrawal cases from clogging up the ER and critical care wards. Sad but true.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3487 on: August 07, 2020, 08:29:46 PM »
Historically, the safe injecting rooms were set up because the addicts were shooting up, overdosing and dying in laneways, and reusing needles. The injecting rooms have clean needles and staff on hand with Narcan and the like. This means that less drug addicts die. Now, you may or may not care about their deaths, but that's the aim - and the results are that fewer die. As the Premier said, in this respect the injecting rooms should be viewed as the same as a hospital or the like, they remain open.

The curfew and the widespread retail lockdown is of course stupid, pointless and punitive merely, but if we have safe injecting rooms at all, then they should remain open despite the curfew.

Liquor stores are another matter. We've previously discussed this here and elsewhere, and defenders said that with the stores closed, alcohol abusers would go into withdrawal and die. However, the experience of South Africa, and many individual cities worldwide in closing them - that didn't happen - South Africa has overall less deaths. ERs haven't been flooded with people in the grips of screaming DTs. It just hasn't happened. So far as I can tell there have no yet been any studies of this, but logically there are only three possibilities:

1. the alcohol abusers got their alcohol from somewhere else
2. there aren't as many alcohol abusers as we thought
3. alcohol withdrawal isn't as deadly as we thought

and it's probably a combination of all three.

As well, if you look at the stats, well... in 2017 in Australia there were 1,366 alcohol-induced deaths, and another 2,820 deaths where alcohol was a contributing factor (cancer, car accidents, etc). So if closing liquor stores caused some withdrawal deaths, they'd also prevent some alcohol-induced deaths. Would it come out even? I don't know - I believe people should have the choice with some restrictions (no sales to under-18s or already intoxicated people, etc). We sacrifice some lives for our freedoms, I don't have a problem with that.

But if we're willing to sacrifice some lives for our freedoms to drink, smoke, eat crappy food, sit on the couch all day... why not for covid, too? Why do I have the freedom to be a drunk, but I don't have the freedom to go to the gym during a pandemic? If you answer, "well, because you might infect/harm others", that's fair enough, but then... alcohol... cars... um... Why is it worth shutting down everything for deadly problem A, but not deadly problem B? Why is problem A killing people "well that's just their choice" but not problem B?

These aren't easy questions. But there is more than one deadly problem in the world. Let's not forget the others and fuck up the trolley problem.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 08:47:48 PM by Kyle Schuant »

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3488 on: August 07, 2020, 09:06:37 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

It's to keep withdrawal cases from clogging up the ER and critical care wards. Sad but true.

Mmm. In addition, I kinda feel that a substantially large majority of the population need a 'mild' vice in their lives. For a large proportion of people that is the odd drink or three in the evenings. For others it's smoking and for others it's the odd punt on sports or horse racing. You've obviously got a small % of those groups who are addicted and have further problems, but as @Kyle Schuant says we tolerate that as a cost of freedom.

Remove that freedom of 'mild' vices from the 3 standard deviations of the bell curve and your average politician or premier will not be in a job for long.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3489 on: August 07, 2020, 09:24:39 PM »
Yes, alcohol, dog and horse racing continue, too, as does online gambling. Add in a nice financial handout from the government and you have a suitably pacified populace who will put up with all sorts of nonsense from government.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3490 on: August 07, 2020, 09:28:23 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

It's to keep withdrawal cases from clogging up the ER and critical care wards. Sad but true.

Mmm. In addition, I kinda feel that a substantially large majority of the population need a 'mild' vice in their lives. For a large proportion of people that is the odd drink or three in the evenings. For others it's smoking and for others it's the odd punt on sports or horse racing. You've obviously got a small % of those groups who are addicted and have further problems, but as @Kyle Schuant says we tolerate that as a cost of freedom.

Remove that freedom of 'mild' vices from the 3 standard deviations of the bell curve and your average politician or premier will not be in a job for long.

Well, I'm not sure alcohol and drugs count as mild vices. Alcohol is probably the most pernicious single force in society. Either that or religion, not sure which.

But we've got plenty of "virtues" that have been heavily proscribed - e.g. exercise - so why aren't vices?

Do people who use safe injecting rooms really need to use them at midnight to prevent a withdrawal? They can't schedule their lives even an iota? Sure, everyone has some difficulty with scheduling things - but tell that to the 99% who have to abide by severe curfews including in relation to most work.

We expect people to go without family contact, any visit to their office or workplace whatsoever (unless an "essential" service) and with very limited exercise but we must give them 100% in-person access to all alcohol?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3491 on: August 07, 2020, 11:09:39 PM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3492 on: August 08, 2020, 05:38:57 AM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

With the right incentive, they're pretty good at scheduling. For instance, they're kind of amazing at turning up for their methadone.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3493 on: August 08, 2020, 06:54:32 AM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

With the right incentive, they're pretty good at scheduling. For instance, they're kind of amazing at turning up for their methadone.
That's not scheduling, it's addiction.  No choices or other options involved.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3494 on: August 08, 2020, 07:53:07 AM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

With the right incentive, they're pretty good at scheduling. For instance, they're kind of amazing at turning up for their methadone.
That's not scheduling, it's addiction.  No choices or other options involved.

They were quite capable of getting a fix before they went on methadone. Choosing to stay on it is absolutely a choice. Don't take that away from them.

Meanwhile, a lot of other scheduling isn't really a choice for most people. For instance, starting work at 9am, clocking off at 5pm, picking the kids up at 3pm etc etc ad nauseam.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3495 on: August 08, 2020, 07:56:56 AM »
I feel like you’re being rather flippant about the realities of addiction and chemical dependence.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3496 on: August 08, 2020, 09:18:05 AM »
Well, look: none of us should be having a curfew, as I said not even the dept of health knows why, it's strictly punitive and ME STRONK LEEDAH stuff. Druggies have a shitty enough life already, if their sole privilege is to be able to ignore some small aspect of our shithouse useless authoritarian government - well, good luck to them.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3497 on: August 08, 2020, 10:17:47 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

One major problem with saying that being fit helps covid is that it's not actually true. (At least by my understanding, but I'm not a scientist or anything of that nature.) I have seen many reports of young and healthy people either being hospitalized for weeks, having long term effects or even passing away from covid. Maybe they weren't "fit" in the sense of they work out regularly, but they were "healthy with no underlying conditions". I do think you are right about not being able to follow multiple messages though, which is why leadership (or lack thereof in this case) is so important. I imagine any other president would have been wearing a mask for weeks, if not months, by now. Actions speak louder than words.

Yeah, it kinda is “really true”, but I’m guessing many on this board are too “woke” to accept “really true”.   Keep hunkering down though for a disease that overwhelmingly effects obese minorities, you are definitely on the path to success. 

List of viruses eradicated, to date:

Smallpox

<The End>

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-obesity-common-covid-patients.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53532228

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/08/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-immune-cells.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage





« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 10:19:36 AM by T-Money$ »

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3498 on: August 08, 2020, 10:21:03 AM »
Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

That's totally illogical. I'm working out 5+ times per week because I know that if I get sick, I want to start in a good place. But that doesn't mean that I want to get sick, I still distance and wear a mask. Why give up all my gains for nothing? If I value running and cycling why would I want permanent lung damage?

Absolutely. Completely 100% illogical. Based on what you've seen in some people since March, do you expect any different?

Yes, I expect different from the majority of people with will exercise. If we can't get that we are all doomed anyway.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3499 on: August 09, 2020, 03:36:20 AM »
If The Lockdown Isn't Working, It's Because We're Not Going Hard Enough
Quote
"But [Mikakos] also said preparing for the pandemic had to be done quickly by many, and acknowledged "mistakes were made along the way, because humans are flawed yet contagious viruses are unforgiving"."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-09/coronavirus-victorian-health-minister-jenny-mikakos-twitter/12538844


[/size]
Quote

"Most people, when directly confronted by evidence that they are wrong, do not change their point of view or course of action but justify it even more tenaciously. Even irrefutable evidence is rarely enough to pierce the mental armor of self-justification. [...]
"Experts can sound pretty impressive, of course, especially when they bolster their claims by citing their years of training and experience in a field. Yet hundreds of studies have shown that, compared to predictions based on actuarial data, predictions based on an expert's years of training and personal experience are rarely better than chance. But when an expert is wrong, the centerpiece of his or her professional identity is threatened. Therefore, dissonance theory predicts that the more self-confident and famous experts are, the less likely they will be to admit mistakes. And that is just what Tetlock found. Experts reduced the dissonance caused by their failed forecasts by coming up with explanations of why they would have been right "if only" - if only that improbable calamity had not intervened; if only the timing of events had been different; if only blah-blah-blah."

― Carol Tavris, Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts