Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675183 times)

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3150 on: July 22, 2020, 01:59:37 AM »
I think it's a pretty reasonable set of restrictions.

Let's hope that everyone else agrees with you. I guess you know what happens when people don't play the game because they think the rules don't apply to them, huh?

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3151 on: July 22, 2020, 03:59:55 AM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

Ha, was just thinking that.  That would make the death rate 0.008% using that method.  I'm guessing the  99.7% figure comes from the CDC's estimate of 0.3% IFR. 



A friend of mine lives in Idaho... I managed to get in a Facebook argument with his wife (she’s the local, he’s Australian and moved there).

She posted some FB picture about the MSM only covering the big increase in cases but not “celebrating” the low death rate.

She tagged it “yay! Herd Immunity”.

I took her to task about it and said no one should celebrate 1000 deaths a day. People who have died needlessly because other folks can’t do basic things like wear masks and keep a reasonable distance from each other. I also pointed out that herd immunity is when people are vaccinated in sufficient numbers that virtually no one gets ill (e.g. whooping cough, measles etc).

She basically said “do you know my background?” So I asked her to explain. She’s apparently some sort of nurse. She said that everyone should catch it so it’s over and done with. I pointed out the example of the Brazilian President who caught it twice.

Her friend chimes in to rip into me that America should let the virus circulate freely amongst the healthy population so that herd immunity can be gained, because lockdowns are not an option because “nobody wants to live like that”.

I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

I gave up. But I now have a better understanding of what we are up against. The problem is not the virus, it’s people who fundamentally believe they are right but have no clue at all.

I've bolded the portions that I think HBFire is referring to.

- Herd immunity can refer to immunity by any means, not just vaccination. She was also wrong to relate herd immunity to death rates.
- Bolsonaro did not catch the virus twice, he took the test twice and tested positive both times.
- if total deaths were divided by world population you'd get a survival rate of 99.992%. I suspect her source made some erroneous assumptions because there are still lots of unknown variables in the infection fatality rate(IFR) equation, but .3% IFR is not out of the realm of possibility.

You're still in the right that the idea of just letting it spread freely would be very, very bad. Even at IFR .3% (an optimistic number) if 50-70% of the population contracted the virus that would equate to 500k-700k deaths, not to mention the impact of time spent sick, survivors who experience long term injuries, and of course the fact that hospitals would be overwhelmed causing the IFR to rise due to lack of resources.

I stand corrected. Appreciate the feedback. See that's what reasonable people do when presented with evidence.

Though I'm not going to accept my level of incorrectness is on the same level as the one who I was arguing with.

There are degrees of misinformation out there. Some are more dangerous than others.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3152 on: July 22, 2020, 08:57:15 AM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in a month or two.

The CDC's site is a poor tool to look at recent trends, as it utilizes death certificate data which can be delayed 8 weeks.

What's a better source?

I've been updating week to week since this started. Using both Johns Hopkins and Worldometer as real-time sources. No source is perfect, but I think it gives us an idea of overall trends, which is what I was looking for when I started this

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/coronavirus-weekly-update/


deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3153 on: July 22, 2020, 12:05:14 PM »
The Australian institute of health and welfare has just looked at the Australian deaths from covid19 for the first four months. On average, people who died here lost 14 years of life if they were female and 17 if they were male. The researchers were surprised at how many years of life expectancy were lost to covid19.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3154 on: July 22, 2020, 05:18:18 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3155 on: July 22, 2020, 06:02:43 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

I was going to get a Covid test on Monday due to some mild symptoms, but the wait time to get results everywhere in my city is 6-10 days. Which means the test is basically useless to me. So I canceled the appointment.

I am guessing there are a lot of people like me with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic who are positive, but don’t bother getting tested for this reason. Let’s hope most of them quarantine, but I am not optimistic.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3156 on: July 22, 2020, 07:23:09 PM »
The Australian institute of health and welfare has just looked at the Australian deaths from covid19 for the first four months. On average, people who died here lost 14 years of life if they were female and 17 if they were male. The researchers were surprised at how many years of life expectancy were lost to covid19.

It would imply a median age of death around 72 for females and 66 for males.

The figures will have changed in the past month. All of the Victorian second wave deaths have been in their 80s, 90s and 100s because so many infections are targeting nursing homes.

EDIT: as a supplement to the above, today three people died who were in their 50s, 70s and 80s.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2020, 09:04:11 PM by Bloop Bloop »

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3157 on: July 22, 2020, 07:28:35 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

I was going to get a Covid test on Monday due to some mild symptoms, but the wait time to get results everywhere in my city is 6-10 days. Which means the test is basically useless to me. So I canceled the appointment.

I am guessing there are a lot of people like me with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic who are positive, but don’t bother getting tested for this reason. Let’s hope most of them quarantine, but I am not optimistic.

Testing with quick turnarounds would help us so much right now. Identifying who needs to stay home and who can go out shopping (with extreme precautions) would make this much more tolerable. The federal government should have taken the lead on this months ago, but even today, they’re still reticent.

It’s incredible how badly we’ve messed this up.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:59:17 AM by mathlete »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3158 on: July 22, 2020, 08:54:24 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

I was going to get a Covid test on Monday due to some mild symptoms, but the wait time to get results everywhere in my city is 6-10 days. Which means the test is basically useless to me. So I canceled the appointment.

I am guessing there are a lot of people like me with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic who are positive, but don’t bother getting tested for this reason. Let’s hope most of them quarantine, but I am not optimistic.
Hope you feel better soon!


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Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3159 on: July 22, 2020, 09:17:10 PM »
Cases for the most populated US counties show some stabilization at high levels of new cases per day (>1000/d in Dallas, houston, Phoenix, and So Cal counties, >2000/d in LA and Miami). Chicago and Detroit have a slight bump but nowhere near their spring numbers. Northern California counties are also have upticks, but at much lower rates (200/d).

Encouragingly, deaths remain relatively low, approximately 2% of reported cases regardless of locale.

Source: NYTimes

ICU capacity remains stable at 85-110% occupancy (all causes) in most metropolitan areas that are affected and publicly reporting (LA, Houston, Miami, Phoenix). It is a bit concerning that they have not been able to clear more beds since the surge began in the last three weeks.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3160 on: July 22, 2020, 09:37:17 PM »
^WTG, San Diego, with negative 10 deaths a while back. Maybe 2020 will be the year of the zombie apocalypse too?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3161 on: July 22, 2020, 10:12:24 PM »
^WTG, San Diego, with negative 10 deaths a while back. Maybe 2020 will be the year of the zombie apocalypse too?

Probably just a correction in the data, but I've noticed this as well.

Hey everyone, here's a heatmap I've made for your review.  I took the Johns Hopkins University (going to abbreviate it as JHU from now on) figures for COVID-19 deaths in each state, then determined the number of fatalities per day per million population from 4/1 until now. Let me know what you all think.

Did this thing go full walking dead and start raising people in Montana on 4/2?

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3162 on: July 22, 2020, 10:18:31 PM »
Haha, yeah those are corrections. They don't really alter the overall trends so I haven't bothered to filter those out. No zombies yet.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3163 on: July 22, 2020, 11:35:00 PM »
something that i just don't get, or at least don't understand why it's not being talked about, is the trend in states like NY, NJ, CT. those trends are basically most of europe's trend lines as well. even AZ is starting to look like it's on that path (unless it's faking the numbers --- possible).

it's not like the northeast states are in total lockdown now. they're in some modified form of lockdown not unlike other parts of the US. same is true for europe; they aren't locked down hard anymore.

i know the NYT just had an article discussing real cases are on the order of 2x-13x higher than reported. but part of me wonders if the real number is 50x and the virus has simply spread and impacted the people that it's going to impact, and the rest just didn't get affected by it.

if the virus has shown anything over the past year, it's that it spreads very easily and quickly (see meat processing plants). i am of the optimistic hope that it's actually infiltrated most of the country (US), especially in states that went back to work earlier than recommended, and that they will soon see the peak of this virus.

my belief is still that there won't be a vaccine in time and that the virus will just need to do its thing, deaths and long-term damage and all. and that the countries/states that just let it rip will ultimately come out ahead. like, new zealand and australia are doing great at containing it and preventing it from spreading, but good luck being locked down forever to the outside world if there's no vaccine.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3164 on: July 22, 2020, 11:49:17 PM »
something that i just don't get, or at least don't understand why it's not being talked about, is the trend in states like NY, NJ, CT. those trends are basically most of europe's trend lines as well. even AZ is starting to look like it's on that path (unless it's faking the numbers --- possible).

it's not like the northeast states are in total lockdown now. they're in some modified form of lockdown not unlike other parts of the US. same is true for europe; they aren't locked down hard anymore.

i know the NYT just had an article discussing real cases are on the order of 2x-13x higher than reported. but part of me wonders if the real number is 50x and the virus has simply spread and impacted the people that it's going to impact, and the rest just didn't get affected by it.

if the virus has shown anything over the past year, it's that it spreads very easily and quickly (see meat processing plants). i am of the optimistic hope that it's actually infiltrated most of the country (US), especially in states that went back to work earlier than recommended, and that they will soon see the peak of this virus.

my belief is still that there won't be a vaccine in time and that the virus will just need to do its thing, deaths and long-term damage and all. and that the countries/states that just let it rip will ultimately come out ahead. like, new zealand and australia are doing great at containing it and preventing it from spreading, but good luck being locked down forever to the outside world if there's no vaccine.

NZ here - we're not locked down to the outside world. We're still trading normally with the exception of tourism.

And Australia is not doing a good job of containing it.

And you're nowhere near a peak in the virus. Europe isn't locked down hard because they allowed the numbers to drop BEFORE they reopened. The US isn't in hard lockdown because your politicians haven't got the balls to enforce something for the good of everyone. The do have the balls to bring in DHS for BLM, which is just plain weird for the rest of the world to watch, but whatever. The good news is, it won't matter soon because the US population will be scared to venture outside anyway. Covid is kind of self limiting that way. Cool, huh?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3165 on: July 22, 2020, 11:51:25 PM »
If I were living in a country where government incompetence had led to 141,000 deaths - and increasing! - I would likewise have a sense of futility about measures taken. Even here in Victoria where we've a few hundred cases and a few deaths each day we're getting that sense.

That one dumb kid fucks up your order at the drivethru does not mean that a decent burger is impossible everywhere and every time, it's just that the kid is an idiot. The failures of our own particular governments do not mean that nothing useful can be done, only that they are not capable of doing it.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3166 on: July 23, 2020, 04:10:16 AM »
something that i just don't get, or at least don't understand why it's not being talked about, is the trend in states like NY, NJ, CT. those trends are basically most of europe's trend lines as well. even AZ is starting to look like it's on that path (unless it's faking the numbers --- possible).

it's not like the northeast states are in total lockdown now. they're in some modified form of lockdown not unlike other parts of the US. same is true for europe; they aren't locked down hard anymore.

i know the NYT just had an article discussing real cases are on the order of 2x-13x higher than reported. but part of me wonders if the real number is 50x and the virus has simply spread and impacted the people that it's going to impact, and the rest just didn't get affected by it.

if the virus has shown anything over the past year, it's that it spreads very easily and quickly (see meat processing plants). i am of the optimistic hope that it's actually infiltrated most of the country (US), especially in states that went back to work earlier than recommended, and that they will soon see the peak of this virus.

my belief is still that there won't be a vaccine in time and that the virus will just need to do its thing, deaths and long-term damage and all. and that the countries/states that just let it rip will ultimately come out ahead. like, new zealand and australia are doing great at containing it and preventing it from spreading, but good luck being locked down forever to the outside world if there's no vaccine.

Masks.  I'm in CT and we've had a mask mandate since April.  I'd say 95+% of people are good about complying with this mandate, and I'm pretty sure it's a large part of why our curve is down.  Plus we re-opened later, not until June, and we never got to a phase 3 of reopening.  No bars, for example.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3167 on: July 23, 2020, 04:36:12 AM »

New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Thanks, its been awhile since I visited their estimates.  I know the range of estimates has been in the 0.3-1% range.  The serological studies done thus far have converged to a median average of 0.38%.

The main problem with these estimates is that they don't jive with what we saw in NY.  If I remember correctly, close to 0.2% of NYC's entire population has died of covid 19.
The NYC data is skewed by what I call the "Cuomovirus" where he sent the infected back to elderly care facilities to spread the virus, with the unsurprising result being many thousands dead in the most vulnerable age group. But like everything else with this, we either don't have the data or don't have good data. I have believed in an IFR ranging from 0.2-0.8% for a while.

No Cuomovirus in CT or NJ as far as I know. Deaths vs confirmed cases etc are not any different in these states.

Death rate *should* go down a lot now, because we now have more effective treatments to keep people from dying.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3168 on: July 23, 2020, 08:36:41 AM »

No Cuomovirus in CT or NJ as far as I know. Deaths vs confirmed cases etc are not any different in these states.

Death rate *should* go down a lot now, because we now have more effective treatments to keep people from dying.

Yeah, CT has the 3rd highest death rate in the country, it got hammered.  It rarely gets mentioned due to its small population, but its right behind NY/NJ with deaths per capita.

I think we're seeing the death rate decline for the reasons many have cited in this thread -- 1), we're testing at a rate of 7 x what we were during the  US peak back in April.  This means we're simply capturing a much higher % of total infections, and hence the denominator is higher for the CFR calculation.  Essentially, even though new cases are much higher now, the virus is likely not nearly as prevalent as it was in late April/mid May (i.e. if we were doing 800 K tests/day back in May, we likely would have seen well over 100 K confirmed cases/day).   2) Average age of infection in most locales has dropped significantly, this would lower mortality.  3) we're better at treatment and approach.

The only good news right now is that new cases seemed to have stabilized.  Now its just a question of how high lagging deaths will get.  @Abe Thanks for all the data you share, good insight -- please keep it up.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 09:13:20 AM by HBFIRE »

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3169 on: July 23, 2020, 09:10:35 AM »
Vaccines are the endgame, but they're not the only way to help. We should have been increasing our testing capacity, but there's little appetite to do that at the Federal level.

I felt under the weather and had a little bit of labored breathing a week and a half ago, so I went to get a COVID test. They told me it could take 7-10 days because of backlogs, so I just completely isolated until I felt better, and then for 72 hours after that.

I still don't have the result. Imagine if my test came back in two days and it was negative? That would have been 5 or so days that I could have been out in the world, doing commerce and helping the economy. As it is though, I stayed home.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3170 on: July 23, 2020, 09:16:54 AM »
The vast majority of people aren't as considerate as you and would be milling about getting their haircut and going to bars, etc while waiting for their results.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3171 on: July 23, 2020, 09:25:15 AM »
The vast majority of people aren't as considerate as you and would be milling about getting their haircut and going to bars, etc while waiting for their results.

I actually have a slightly more favorable view on humanity than most during this. For example, despite all the grumbling, almost everyone I see wears a mask where they're supposed to.

And I think even getting a test when you feel ill (but don't need to be hospitalized) shows a certain level of conscientiousness. People will play along if you make it sufficiently easy for them. i.e., lots of drive thru testing, quick turn-a-rounds, and low penalties for missing work due to sickness.

Unfortunately, all this requires leadership, which we do not have right now. 

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3172 on: July 23, 2020, 09:39:51 AM »
Unfortunately, all this requires leadership, which we do not have right now.

Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3173 on: July 23, 2020, 10:39:29 AM »
Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

More than ever, people are either tuning him out or just fuming at his ridiculousness. People disapprove of him 56/40.

On the virus specifically, he struck a somber tone in late March, only to tweet a few days later that "WE CAN'T LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE" and floating packing the churches for Easter.  More recently, he's been hot and cold on masks. He's recommending that we wear them now, but I'm not ruling out a conspiracy theory retweet coming up soon.

There's no level of consistency in his messaging. This is what I mean by "no leadership". Before, when he said and did horrible things, he was at least consistent about a lot of them. Wall good. Immigrants bad. etc.

The messaging from the top this time though has been, "???". We (states and individuals) are really on our own here.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3174 on: July 23, 2020, 10:57:35 AM »

No Cuomovirus in CT or NJ as far as I know. Deaths vs confirmed cases etc are not any different in these states.

Death rate *should* go down a lot now, because we now have more effective treatments to keep people from dying.

Yeah, CT has the 3rd highest death rate in the country, it got hammered.  It rarely gets mentioned due to its small population, but its right behind NY/NJ with deaths per capita.

I think we're seeing the death rate decline for the reasons many have cited in this thread -- 1), we're testing at a rate of 7 x what we were during the  US peak back in April.  This means we're simply capturing a much higher % of total infections, and hence the denominator is higher for the CFR calculation.  Essentially, even though new cases are much higher now, the virus is likely not nearly as prevalent as it was in late April/mid May (i.e. if we were doing 800 K tests/day back in May, we likely would have seen well over 100 K confirmed cases/day).   2) Average age of infection in most locales has dropped significantly, this would lower mortality.  3) we're better at treatment and approach.

The only good news right now is that new cases seemed to have stabilized.  Now its just a question of how high lagging deaths will get.  @Abe Thanks for all the data you share, good insight -- please keep it up.

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.

Any partisan hack that seeks to distract from the culpability of our current federal leadership and the sun-belt governments by promoting unfounded conspiracy theories without any empirical evidence is doing a disservice to their fellow citizens. The virus won't discriminate based on ideology. It CAN come for you.

And even though it does not kill many (specially with the present treatments available), it causes long term damage far more frequently.


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3175 on: July 23, 2020, 11:24:55 AM »
Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

More than ever, people are either tuning him out or just fuming at his ridiculousness. People disapprove of him 56/40.

On the virus specifically, he struck a somber tone in late March, only to tweet a few days later that "WE CAN'T LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE" and floating packing the churches for Easter.  More recently, he's been hot and cold on masks. He's recommending that we wear them now, but I'm not ruling out a conspiracy theory retweet coming up soon.

There's no level of consistency in his messaging. This is what I mean by "no leadership". Before, when he said and did horrible things, he was at least consistent about a lot of them. Wall good. Immigrants bad. etc.

The messaging from the top this time though has been, "???". We (states and individuals) are really on our own here.

40% of people approve of him though!  What the fuck is wrong with them?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3176 on: July 23, 2020, 11:32:11 AM »
Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

More than ever, people are either tuning him out or just fuming at his ridiculousness. People disapprove of him 56/40.

On the virus specifically, he struck a somber tone in late March, only to tweet a few days later that "WE CAN'T LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE" and floating packing the churches for Easter.  More recently, he's been hot and cold on masks. He's recommending that we wear them now, but I'm not ruling out a conspiracy theory retweet coming up soon.

There's no level of consistency in his messaging. This is what I mean by "no leadership". Before, when he said and did horrible things, he was at least consistent about a lot of them. Wall good. Immigrants bad. etc.

The messaging from the top this time though has been, "???". We (states and individuals) are really on our own here.

40% of people approve of him though!  What the fuck is wrong with them?

Tribalism?

I live in Detroit. The Lions haven't won an NFL championship since 1957. Yet, their fan base remains large and loyal.

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3177 on: July 23, 2020, 11:36:31 AM »
back on topic... something I'm curious about, with testing/test rates... are those somehow normalized for the number of distinct people tested?

I have sort of been assuming that if a state did 100k tests, that meant they tested 100k people. But I'm wondering - what if that's testing 1000 people every day for 100 days (maybe healthcare)?

All the data I can see talks about completed tests and doesn't correct for numbers of people. So if testing infrastructure made tests more available and medical facilities could do more testing on a regular basis, it'd dramatically increase the numbers of tests without really reaching more people as they repeatedly test their healthcare workers.

Or it could be too that someone who has covid and is tested multiple times, maybe to clear a return to work or maybe because they have money to burn, who knows, would increase the positive test results without being distinct people. So in a naive situation where you test 5 people, 4 of whom are negative and the positive person tests 3 times, you might see 3/7 positive test results.

I'm wondering if this means that using the raw test count/positive test count data is slightly misleading. I'm not particularly sure how it'd be possible to correct for this but it certainly feels like it'd lead to a falser sense of security if multiple people are tested negative repeatedly.

It seems like positive cases can be reflected as "number of confirmed cases" to avoid this. But I've not seen a similar conversion of the negative test results.

GillyMack

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3178 on: July 23, 2020, 11:57:40 AM »
Our state tries to correct for this, though sometimes it takes a few days to clean and probably isn't 100 % perfect. So the numbers professionals are aware.  But if one grabs a stat of cases off a website or news article, it might be hard to tell exactly what it is.

Editing to say what I’m talking about is removing multiple tests of same people.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 12:06:42 PM by GillyMack »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3179 on: July 23, 2020, 12:01:09 PM »
back on topic... something I'm curious about, with testing/test rates... are those somehow normalized for the number of distinct people tested?

I have sort of been assuming that if a state did 100k tests, that meant they tested 100k people. But I'm wondering - what if that's testing 1000 people every day for 100 days (maybe healthcare)?

All the data I can see talks about completed tests and doesn't correct for numbers of people. So if testing infrastructure made tests more available and medical facilities could do more testing on a regular basis, it'd dramatically increase the numbers of tests without really reaching more people as they repeatedly test their healthcare workers.

Or it could be too that someone who has covid and is tested multiple times, maybe to clear a return to work or maybe because they have money to burn, who knows, would increase the positive test results without being distinct people. So in a naive situation where you test 5 people, 4 of whom are negative and the positive person tests 3 times, you might see 3/7 positive test results.

I'm wondering if this means that using the raw test count/positive test count data is slightly misleading. I'm not particularly sure how it'd be possible to correct for this but it certainly feels like it'd lead to a falser sense of security if multiple people are tested negative repeatedly.

It seems like positive cases can be reflected as "number of confirmed cases" to avoid this. But I've not seen a similar conversion of the negative test results.
My wife’s doctor claims she gets tested each week to try and keep her patients safer and I am sure many others get tested multiple times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3180 on: July 23, 2020, 12:04:02 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve won’t be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

"Spreadnecks"! Love it...

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3181 on: July 23, 2020, 12:10:54 PM »
back on topic... something I'm curious about, with testing/test rates... are those somehow normalized for the number of distinct people tested?

I have sort of been assuming that if a state did 100k tests, that meant they tested 100k people. But I'm wondering - what if that's testing 1000 people every day for 100 days (maybe healthcare)?

All the data I can see talks about completed tests and doesn't correct for numbers of people. So if testing infrastructure made tests more available and medical facilities could do more testing on a regular basis, it'd dramatically increase the numbers of tests without really reaching more people as they repeatedly test their healthcare workers.

Or it could be too that someone who has covid and is tested multiple times, maybe to clear a return to work or maybe because they have money to burn, who knows, would increase the positive test results without being distinct people. So in a naive situation where you test 5 people, 4 of whom are negative and the positive person tests 3 times, you might see 3/7 positive test results.

I'm wondering if this means that using the raw test count/positive test count data is slightly misleading. I'm not particularly sure how it'd be possible to correct for this but it certainly feels like it'd lead to a falser sense of security if multiple people are tested negative repeatedly.

It seems like positive cases can be reflected as "number of confirmed cases" to avoid this. But I've not seen a similar conversion of the negative test results.
My wife’s doctor claims she gets tested each week to try and keep her patients safer and I am sure many others get tested multiple times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I’m required by one of my employers to test weekly, the other monthly

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3182 on: July 23, 2020, 01:31:45 PM »
i always like these unherd videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh9wso6bEAc

the logic presented by anders tengell is what i believe in the long term.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3183 on: July 23, 2020, 03:23:00 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.


Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3184 on: July 23, 2020, 03:49:19 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3185 on: July 23, 2020, 04:55:59 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 05:02:21 PM by wenchsenior »

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3186 on: July 23, 2020, 05:29:58 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3187 on: July 23, 2020, 06:33:23 PM »

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.



Gotcha.  Think he was referring to NY's decision to send back patients to nursing homes, which obviously was disastrous and cost untold numbers of deaths in NYC.  They corrected the issue but the severe damage was already done.  I don't think he's necessarily being political by pointing this out, this  is absolutely a massive mistake by Cuomo.  We should be able to point out errors regardless of political affiliation.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 06:37:04 PM by HBFIRE »

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3188 on: July 23, 2020, 06:59:44 PM »

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.



Gotcha.  Think he was referring to NY's decision to send back patients to nursing homes, which obviously was disastrous and cost untold numbers of deaths in NYC.  They corrected the issue but the severe damage was already done.  I don't think he's necessarily being political by pointing this out, this  is absolutely a massive mistake by Cuomo.  We should be able to point out errors regardless of political affiliation.

Very true. I would expect this to be debated in a matured fashion in any democracy.

Just like NY State Democrats are apparently planning to to: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/nyregion/nursing-homes-deaths-cuomo.html

There are two sides to the story, like you would expect in many cases. e.g. NY health department claims all patients sent back to nursing homes were after they stopped being infectious: https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2020/docs/nh_factors_report.pdf

It is possible that:
1. The NY health department are accurate and this entire controversy was a red herring. All the nursing home deaths were indeed driven by infected and asymptomatic health workers.
2. There were mistakes made. Quite possible given not a whole lot was known by the virus at that time, AND people were acting in an emergency.
    2.A. Mistakes were made by medical professionals and Cuomo just followed their suggestions.
    2.B. Cuomo exercised improper influence on the decision when he had no training/background and hence no business deciding this on his own.
3. There were bad faith political decisions knowingly endangering people's lives.


There is no way to definitively know which category it falls into. If I see/hear Cuomo obstructing/blocking any such inquiry by the legislature - then I'd strongly suspect it is case #3. For now, it seems to me to either be #1, #2A or #2B.

Please let me know if you know anything better that clearly indicates the possibility of the possibility #3.

Compare this to the sunbelt states, where there is no confusion that people's lives are being sacrificed for political ideology. i.e. it IS #3 all the way. When Faux news and their minions (like our friend I responded to) scream "cuomovirus" about a confusing situation, and then give a pass to DeSantis and others, the they are being partisan hacks.

Quacks like a duck and walks like a duck and all that....

« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 07:02:03 PM by ctuser1 »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3189 on: July 23, 2020, 07:37:21 PM »

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.



Gotcha.  Think he was referring to NY's decision to send back patients to nursing homes, which obviously was disastrous and cost untold numbers of deaths in NYC.  They corrected the issue but the severe damage was already done.  I don't think he's necessarily being political by pointing this out, this  is absolutely a massive mistake by Cuomo.  We should be able to point out errors regardless of political affiliation.

Very true. I would expect this to be debated in a matured fashion in any democracy.

Just like NY State Democrats are apparently planning to to: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/nyregion/nursing-homes-deaths-cuomo.html

There are two sides to the story, like you would expect in many cases. e.g. NY health department claims all patients sent back to nursing homes were after they stopped being infectious: https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2020/docs/nh_factors_report.pdf

It is possible that:
1. The NY health department are accurate and this entire controversy was a red herring. All the nursing home deaths were indeed driven by infected and asymptomatic health workers.
2. There were mistakes made. Quite possible given not a whole lot was known by the virus at that time, AND people were acting in an emergency.
    2.A. Mistakes were made by medical professionals and Cuomo just followed their suggestions.
    2.B. Cuomo exercised improper influence on the decision when he had no training/background and hence no business deciding this on his own.
3. There were bad faith political decisions knowingly endangering people's lives.


There is no way to definitively know which category it falls into. If I see/hear Cuomo obstructing/blocking any such inquiry by the legislature - then I'd strongly suspect it is case #3. For now, it seems to me to either be #1, #2A or #2B.

Please let me know if you know anything better that clearly indicates the possibility of the possibility #3.

Compare this to the sunbelt states, where there is no confusion that people's lives are being sacrificed for political ideology. i.e. it IS #3 all the way. When Faux news and their minions (like our friend I responded to) scream "cuomovirus" about a confusing situation, and then give a pass to DeSantis and others, the they are being partisan hacks.

Quacks like a duck and walks like a duck and all that....
I personally think 2A to be the most likely scenario (I don't think #3 is plausible since I don't think Cuomo is a super-villain even though his thoughtless executive order on restaurants serving alcohol has inspired something so insipid as Cuomo Chips -- let's see how many different bar foods Cuomo decrees to be "unsubstantial" before he gives up!). I'm sorry I haven't made my list down all of the governors yet but how about this to better indicate my non-partisan nature: DieSantis.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3190 on: July 23, 2020, 08:49:06 PM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3191 on: July 23, 2020, 08:55:37 PM »
I think this was poor planning on NY's part at the government level. Patients who were treated for COVID at a hospital should have been transferred to one of the temporary hospitals, or designated COVID-19 nursing homes as was done in other states. This, along with Cuomo and De Blasio's poo-pooing public health officials regarding COVID-19 transmission risks ("we're open for business") is part of their failures to thoughtfully deal with the crisis. I know some media outlets were fawning over Cuomo because our dumpster fire of a federal government was doing the worst possible job in management during the height of the spring crisis, but he was basically covering up a mess he helped create by lacking decisiveness in shutting the state (or at least NYC) down early.

That being said, nursing home residents were already at high risk of death from COVID-19, and the 18% of total deaths from nursing homes is not out of line with other states' reports.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3192 on: July 24, 2020, 05:05:57 AM »
I think this was poor planning on NY's part at the government level. Patients who were treated for COVID at a hospital should have been transferred to one of the temporary hospitals, or designated COVID-19 nursing homes as was done in other states. This, along with Cuomo and De Blasio's poo-pooing public health officials regarding COVID-19 transmission risks ("we're open for business") is part of their failures to thoughtfully deal with the crisis.

Yupp. If you see my decision flowchart a few posts above, I suspect that the situation was 2B - that Cuomo was initially overriding medical professional's suggestions as to how serious the pandemic was. I have seen a report/study/something somewhere (can't find it now), that NYC's infection/death curve would have been half as high had the state/city been locked down a week earlier, and some fraction if locked down a month earlier.
It IS "hindsght 20/20" when we levy these criticisms today. But, then, taking these decisions correctly through foggy data is the sole purpose of the existence of leaders. Cuomo definitely fell short of what he *could* have done.

That being said, nursing home residents were already at high risk of death from COVID-19, and the 18% of total deaths from nursing homes is not out of line with other states' reports.
This is exactly my point. This specific criticism does not seem to have contributed anything to the overall crisis or death numbers.

Cuomo's failure to shut down NY State a week or more earlier when virologists were calling for it was a real failure with real costs (in # of human lives). Yet, the Faux news won't talk about it because that line of attack is inconvenient for their political posture and they are not interested in any good faith discussion(s).

And then they will pick up the silliest and stupidest conspiracy theories that, from all empirical evidence, did not matter much.

But, they successfully used Benghazi to paint Hillary Clinton to a corner, so I guess they don't really need any "real issues" to start shouting.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3193 on: July 24, 2020, 07:43:10 AM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

Definitely.  This is absolutely unacceptable behavior in a healthcare setting.   I went to a medical appointment a month or so back where the receptionists were both wearing their masks on their chins (all other patients and staff were wearing them properly), so I called the corporate office  immediately after I left to compliment them overall on their job of complying with the mask mandate, but to note specifically that their front desk staff needed some work - their compliance office said they would address it the same day. 

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3194 on: July 24, 2020, 08:27:16 AM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

Definitely.  This is absolutely unacceptable behavior in a healthcare setting.   I went to a medical appointment a month or so back where the receptionists were both wearing their masks on their chins (all other patients and staff were wearing them properly), so I called the corporate office  immediately after I left to compliment them overall on their job of complying with the mask mandate, but to note specifically that their front desk staff needed some work - their compliance office said they would address it the same day.

I left feedback on their follow up email form.  It's annoying b/c this dentist has been great, teethwise, and it's practically walking distance from my house.  I have a suspicion that I'd encounter the same thing in most other dentists (including the one I used previous to this).  As I noted, this town is mostly super religious Baptists, full of Trump supporters, and has been very resistant to mask-wearing (presumably b/c Jesus will protect the righteous or something). 


Side note:  Most businesses in this city have crucifixes or religious symbols up on their doors and in their lobbies here, to advertise their religiosity.  I've regularly had doctors at the University Medical Center (secular) ask to 'pray with me for God's help with my medical complaint' during medical appointments.  My mom's eye doctor asked to pray with her prior to her cataract surgery (she openly scoffed at him, which I thought was unwise given she was about to go under the laser, but it was fine).

Nearly all the dentists in town are 'local boys' so I wonder if it would be that different anywhere else in town.


OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3195 on: July 24, 2020, 09:50:01 AM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

Definitely.  This is absolutely unacceptable behavior in a healthcare setting.   I went to a medical appointment a month or so back where the receptionists were both wearing their masks on their chins (all other patients and staff were wearing them properly), so I called the corporate office  immediately after I left to compliment them overall on their job of complying with the mask mandate, but to note specifically that their front desk staff needed some work - their compliance office said they would address it the same day.

I left feedback on their follow up email form.  It's annoying b/c this dentist has been great, teethwise, and it's practically walking distance from my house.  I have a suspicion that I'd encounter the same thing in most other dentists (including the one I used previous to this).  As I noted, this town is mostly super religious Baptists, full of Trump supporters, and has been very resistant to mask-wearing (presumably b/c Jesus will protect the righteous or something). 


Side note:  Most businesses in this city have crucifixes or religious symbols up on their doors and in their lobbies here, to advertise their religiosity.  I've regularly had doctors at the University Medical Center (secular) ask to 'pray with me for God's help with my medical complaint' during medical appointments.  My mom's eye doctor asked to pray with her prior to her cataract surgery (she openly scoffed at him, which I thought was unwise given she was about to go under the laser, but it was fine).

Nearly all the dentists in town are 'local boys' so I wonder if it would be that different anywhere else in town.

Yikes. I just got off the phone with my dentist's office. They needed to do the COVID prescreening interview and run through the new safety requirements before our appointments on Monday.

If it's cultural, you're probably right that lax safety and "Jesus saves" policy would be the same anywhere else in your area. I'm sorry. That sucks.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3196 on: July 25, 2020, 12:12:55 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.
Yes. I've seen it before in the gym, and also in other jobs where people had the chance to do something morally dubious but get money from it.


Put a heavy weight on a person's back or a wad of cash in front of their face and you find out who they really are.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3197 on: July 25, 2020, 05:01:06 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Recently, I've seen good people I've known for 20+ years say and do things I never would've expected. I just keep reminding myself that it's because of the virus. People aren't their normal selves.

Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3198 on: July 27, 2020, 08:29:44 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Yes out of town family who are very big Trump believers were justifying their non-mask wearing to us. The relatives had anecdotes about a testing technician who admitted he was not well trained and someone who possibly received a wrong number call from COVID results testing which they never had - that told them they were positive. Plus other anecdotes.

Anyhow these stories have greater validity to them than anything the big brain medical experts have recommended, more validity that 146,000+ dead, etc. etc. Of course anything that they don't like is fake news as their leader has demonstrated over and over.

DW and I talked at length on the way home about how different this pandemic would have been if we'd had a president who let the experts lead the pandemic and economic strategies rather than muddying up the conversations with his BS. Just leading by example wearing a mask and encouraging everyone to follow suit would have made a big difference.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3199 on: July 27, 2020, 09:56:16 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Yes out of town family who are very big Trump believers were justifying their non-mask wearing to us. The relatives had anecdotes about a testing technician who admitted he was not well trained and someone who possibly received a wrong number call from COVID results testing which they never had - that told them they were positive. Plus other anecdotes.

Anyhow these stories have greater validity to them than anything the big brain medical experts have recommended, more validity that 146,000+ dead, etc. etc. Of course anything that they don't like is fake news as their leader has demonstrated over and over.

DW and I talked at length on the way home about how different this pandemic would have been if we'd had a president who let the experts lead the pandemic and economic strategies rather than muddying up the conversations with his BS. Just leading by example wearing a mask and encouraging everyone to follow suit would have made a big difference.

New Zealand is keeping Jacinda and we are keeping Justin, so you will have to produce your own sensible leaders.  Sorry.