Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675300 times)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3100 on: July 15, 2020, 10:30:52 PM »
Yes, I'm okay with not having a consensus on willingness to pay a social price, but that's why governments are elected - to force a consensus where required. I think it's easy to say in hindsight that the government should have required greater restrictions on those security guards' ability to travel or socialise with anyone outside their immediate families. There was an Age article about a family of 17 people who ALL got the coronavirus!! Unless they live 17 under the same roof, there's a real failure there of enforcement. Not that I'm criticising the government because it may have been difficult to foresee.

As for human/social capital, the reason I prefer QALY is because when resources are limited, you try to maximise the life-years you can save. It's not a concept that's tied to (economic) "productive" life years in my book [otherwise we wouldn't pay retiree pensions since by definition those people have reduced  economically productivity], but rather tied to life years where the person can experience a decent quality of life. So it's about using financial resources to shore up present/future non-financial quality of life.

There's a huge overlap, because future human capital is also likely to be future productive capital. But it's the former not the latter that drives the QALY assessment.

And because I ascribe to the former, then it doesn't change whether or not someone chooses or doesn't choose to retire.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3101 on: July 16, 2020, 08:54:56 AM »
Back to the topic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

This was a good article on what we can expect in the next 4-12 weeks after the surge in cases in the South and the West with very little mitigation efforts by those individual states.


boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3102 on: July 16, 2020, 10:18:50 AM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

Alas, the inherent weakness of democracy as a system of government. I assure you I personally could not get elected dog-catcher...

Eh, I wouldn't say "democracy" is the major reason we ended up with this president but that's a topic for another thread.
The democracies of the world are ranked here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index - most have done well with covid19.

True. The point I was trying to make is a bit different. The fact that 2 out of three of the presidents the US has had in the 21st century did not win the popular vote does not really scream "democracy" to me. In my view, we are possibly further down the slope of flawed democracy>authoritarianism than what is reflected in this Wikipedia ranking. 

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3103 on: July 16, 2020, 10:33:28 AM »
This isn’t great (and yes, I know, it’s one doctor at one hospital): Miami Hospital ICU Doctor: New Influx Of Patients Is Younger Than Before

Quote
That's one big change. Much younger patients, pretty much healthy. Not really major past medical history.

We are not seeing that much obesity. I know there are some reports about obesity, but at least in the ICU, I would guess maybe 20% of patients are obese. Most of them are pretty young and healthy patients.

And also they get sicker than the previous [wave]. Mortality has not been a major issue because they are younger patients. But I think as the days go on, we might also see a change in mortality.

That is exactly what the ICU doctor in Sarasota, Florida said about the state of things at his hospital.

He also said he never thought he'd have three young critically ill patients and be forced to choose only one of them for treatment due to lack of/shortage of equipment and shortage of meds.
He was still reeling from seeing a 20-year-old die from COVID and appealed to the young to wear masks and take this seriously. 
(Live interview on TV about 4-5 days ago) 

It is encouraging to see that perhaps there will be considerably less death while it rages among the younger crowd and we have better treatments, but I am also wondering about the rise in deaths at home.
Is that the older population scared and refusing to go to the hospital where they fear to die alone in a hallway?
Florida is not reporting pneumonia or stroke or heart attacks as Covid deaths only on the list of contributing factors. How accurately does that reflect our real death toll? 

Florida never flattened the curve enough and then rushed to re-open with nowhere near the criteria recommended for re-opening.
A delusional governor bent on denying the crisis all around him from the total failure of our states unemployment system to handling the pandemic.
It borders on criminal neglect of duty.

Long recoveries are just one more economic issue in the years to come for everyone around the world recovering from Covid.
There will be lasting impact.

When did we become so ignorant and willing to tolerate dysfunctional, disorganized-mismanaged federal and state government to the degree that it has become harmful to us as a nation?
WTH does this outcome serve well?

Sorry guys for ranting but I just got off the phone with a friend in Germany - they currently have 3 cases in her area (Hesse-state) - compared to over 30,000 cases in my area (my county and the adjacent county are relatively comparable to the state of Hesse at least imho).

It is mindboggling to me. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The state of Florida pop 21.48 millon has over 300,000 cases compared to the country of Germany pop 83.02 million which has over 200,000 cases

You can spin this any way you want but there is no denying that a functional, centralized government with a well established healthcare system is better equipped to deal with a pandemic of global proportions.
Despite Germany taking in millions of refugees and despite its population density.
What mattered were the political will to work together and committed leadership that listened to their scientists and acted upon that data.

It was what state governor Cuomo achieved in NY - kudos to him for working out the kinks on ground zero. It wasn't perfect because he was flying blind but for people to come in after the fact, after we know more about the virus to criticize him is beyond the pale. They now have a system they can work with when the second wave rolls around and time to prepare for that second wave.

Gov DeSantis in Florida had plenty of time and opportunity to do an even better job ... instead, he keeps on failing to do his job.
Worse, what it means to us is that we will have little opportunity if any to prepare for a second wave in fall/winter.   

Until the US figures out that divided we fall we will be in for one hell of a ride.

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3104 on: July 16, 2020, 11:07:40 AM »
Back to the topic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

This was a good article on what we can expect in the next 4-12 weeks after the surge in cases in the South and the West with very little mitigation efforts by those individual states.

@JGS1980 - indeed an excellent if sobering article. Thx for sharing it.
Let us hope it will never come to such extreme death rates - it is all just projections.
Projections can be changed by taking action.
From the article:
Quote
By the absolute or per capita numbers, the U.S. stands out as nearly the only country besides Iran that had a large spring outbreak, began to suppress the virus, and then simply let the virus come back.
No other country in the world has attempted what the U.S. appears to be stumbling into.

I think that is putting it mildly. All actions or inaction have consequences - we chose this path as a country.
Now we need to deal with the consequences and hopefully take different actions in the future.

The newest move to have hospitals stop reporting to the CDC and report to Washington instead is disturbing in its implications...
Blackballing Fauci is untenable...
Florida is not attempting to flatten the curve, our governor said we stabilized:).
Instead it appears Florida will let the virus run rampant - maybe in the hopes this virus will burn itself out.
Florida - how can you open schools and expose teachers and staff?

Oh well - we shall see what happens in the next four weeks.
Right now I can't even imagine what might happen by or in November.

Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3105 on: July 16, 2020, 11:11:55 AM »
I can't look at the politicians rushing our nation towards disaster without thinking that there is likely a large group of their supporters rubbing their hands in greedy delight at all the ways the can make money from the misery of others.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3106 on: July 16, 2020, 11:16:47 AM »
We had a whole group of politicians running in recent years on the platform that government is basically stupid and incompetent and that you want very little of it (Tea Party).  Seems that was self-fulfilling.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3107 on: July 16, 2020, 04:58:19 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

We could lend you BoJo if you wanna try and see if you can go even lower??

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3108 on: July 16, 2020, 05:02:31 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

We could lend you BoJo if you wanna try and see if you can go even lower??

I don’t think that’s possible. BoJo has shown occasional glimmers of common sense and humanity. Pretty sure you’d need a fellow American to get to the Trump level of idiocy and depravity. Rush Limbaugh or Alex Jones would be good places to start.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3109 on: July 16, 2020, 07:15:01 PM »
I don’t think that’s possible. BoJo has shown occasional glimmers of common sense and humanity.

Yup, as a US/UK dual national I'm sad about both countries, but Trump makes BoJo look smart and reasonable. Also, I think being admitted to the ICU helped him wise up a bit.

OtherJen

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dougules

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lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3112 on: July 17, 2020, 04:02:39 PM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/we-ll-see-him-court-atlanta-mayor-questions-georgia-gov-n1234141

https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/gov-ivey-covid-update-today-press-conference-planned-for-11-am-watch-live.html

The world has turned on its head when the governor of Alabama has more sense than the governor of Georgia.
Years ago, on my work map, I scratched out the name "Georgia" and wrote in "North Florida". I guess I was just ahead of the times... (I also renamed "South Dakota" as "Good Dakota" to distinguish it from ND)

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3113 on: July 17, 2020, 04:10:51 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3114 on: July 17, 2020, 04:23:21 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Well  if you're not willing to perform simple common sense remedies like injecting bleach or sticking UV bulbs up your ass, what do you expect?

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3115 on: July 17, 2020, 05:25:53 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Well  if you're not willing to perform simple common sense remedies like injecting bleach or sticking UV bulbs up your ass, what do you expect?

If you inject enough bleach you definitely won't die of covid.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3116 on: July 17, 2020, 05:57:11 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Technically anything less than uncontrolled exponential growth is a "flatter" curve than you would have had.

 But yea, I'm glad to be in Oregon right now.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3117 on: July 18, 2020, 12:55:36 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Technically anything less than uncontrolled exponential growth is a "flatter" curve than you would have had.

 But yea, I'm glad to be in Oregon right now.

Usually Oregon is way more functional than the rest of the US, but Oregon's not exactly flattening the curve right now either.  Of course there's only so much you can do if neighboring states aren't managing things well and the president is urging conservative Oregonians to act like it's just a bad cold. 

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3118 on: July 18, 2020, 06:37:14 PM »
Here we go again: Reuters: Pandemic-hit Arizona, Texas counties order coolers, refrigerated trucks for bodies

Florida - here we go
Several hospitals in our area, Tampa Bay, just ordered refrigerated trucks for their dead - the other hospitals stated they have lined up a source.
One in 75 people in my county is infected.
The adjacent county where Mr. R works - one in 64 people are now infected.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3119 on: July 18, 2020, 07:24:02 PM »
Usually Oregon is way more functional than the rest of the US, but Oregon's not exactly flattening the curve right now either.  Of course there's only so much you can do if neighboring states aren't managing things well and the president is urging conservative Oregonians to act like it's just a bad cold.

Everything is relative. If it were up to me we would have gone to WA Phase 2 (less permissive than OR phase 1) and held there for a good long time. But still, relative to many states, OR is alright. For example, OR did not make this list.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3120 on: July 19, 2020, 04:17:35 AM »
Our state government estimated that 80% of our second wave of cases were linked to work and specifically casual workers in health/aged care who worked (often at various employers) while displaying symptoms.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3121 on: July 19, 2020, 09:35:03 AM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 09:38:43 AM by HBFIRE »

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3122 on: July 19, 2020, 11:05:59 AM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".

Yes, we half-assed it, and now we're getting the worst of both worlds.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3123 on: July 19, 2020, 11:53:15 AM »
From their primary data they report a 20% increase, which looks like an extra ~400 deaths from overdoses since January (mean 800/week to now 900/week)? This is only in six states at highest risk, so not sure how that translates to the country as a whole. We’re really bad at healthcare in general. Now it’s going to be worse.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 11:55:26 AM by Abe »

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3124 on: July 19, 2020, 12:07:06 PM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".

What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3125 on: July 19, 2020, 12:39:16 PM »
Here we go again: Reuters: Pandemic-hit Arizona, Texas counties order coolers, refrigerated trucks for bodies

Florida - here we go
Several hospitals in our area, Tampa Bay, just ordered refrigerated trucks for their dead - the other hospitals stated they have lined up a source.
One in 75 people in my county is infected.
The adjacent county where Mr. R works - one in 64 people are now infected.

The hell of it is, the ones refusing to wear masks will be the reason why we end up closing down again. And they will be the ones bitching the most about the re-closing that they are responsible for.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3126 on: July 19, 2020, 01:36:29 PM »

What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?

As I understand it, any person with covid-19 at time of death, that has to be included on the death certificate regardless of cause.  I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, but we should at least categorize these deaths separately.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3127 on: July 19, 2020, 03:12:01 PM »
God fucking damn it

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3128 on: July 19, 2020, 03:42:07 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve won’t be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

One of the replies mentioned the term #spreadnecks

(Laughs in bitter)

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3129 on: July 19, 2020, 06:37:21 PM »
What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?
If you get drunk and stumble onto a road in front of a truck, what's the cause of death: drunkenness, or vehicle accident?

If you have painful cancer and take so many opiates for pain relief that you overdose and die, what's the cause of death, cancer or opiate overdose?

If you have AIDS and multiple cancers pop up in your body, what's the cause of death, AIDS or cancer?

If you have chronic asthma and get a chest infection which 99.9% of people survive, but only 50% of asthmatics survive, what's the cause of death, asthma or the infection?

Caesar was stabbed 27 times - whose was the killing blow?

Death is part of life, and life is sometimes complicated.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3130 on: July 19, 2020, 07:11:53 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve won’t be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

One of the replies mentioned the term #spreadnecks

(Laughs in bitter)
All Gas No Brakes is my favorite reporter right now. If one listens to what Americans actually think, the lack of effective response to the pandemic is unsurprising. It's easy to think that the more like-minded individuals you interact with on a regular basis are modal when the truth is much sadder. UP Michigan represent! (It's probably good they are getting some vitamin D though)

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3131 on: July 20, 2020, 12:36:20 AM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".

What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?

Too polite to say overdosed on hydroxychloroquine?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3132 on: July 21, 2020, 06:31:15 AM »
Welp, looks like the curve won’t be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

One of the replies mentioned the term #spreadnecks

(Laughs in bitter)
All Gas No Brakes is my favorite reporter right now. If one listens to what Americans actually think, the lack of effective response to the pandemic is unsurprising. It's easy to think that the more like-minded individuals you interact with on a regular basis are modal when the truth is much sadder. UP Michigan represent! (It's probably good they are getting some vitamin D though)

As of yesterday: UP COVID-19 cases reach more than 350 Monday; Upper Michigan a medium-high risk (Source: WLUC-TV, Marquette, MI)

As per the State of Michigan, the entire UP has 79 ICU beds, and 42 are currently occupied as of July 20.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3133 on: July 21, 2020, 02:47:14 PM »
A friend of mine lives in Idaho... I managed to get in a Facebook argument with his wife (she’s the local, he’s Australian and moved there).

She posted some FB picture about the MSM only covering the big increase in cases but not “celebrating” the low death rate.

She tagged it “yay! Herd Immunity”.

I took her to task about it and said no one should celebrate 1000 deaths a day. People who have died needlessly because other folks can’t do basic things like wear masks and keep a reasonable distance from each other. I also pointed out that herd immunity is when people are vaccinated in sufficient numbers that virtually no one gets ill (e.g. whooping cough, measles etc).

She basically said “do you know my background?” So I asked her to explain. She’s apparently some sort of nurse. She said that everyone should catch it so it’s over and done with. I pointed out the example of the Brazilian President who caught it twice.

Her friend chimes in to rip into me that America should let the virus circulate freely amongst the healthy population so that herd immunity can be gained, because lockdowns are not an option because “nobody wants to live like that”.

I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

I gave up. But I now have a better understanding of what we are up against. The problem is not the virus, it’s people who fundamentally believe they are right but have no clue at all.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 02:51:42 PM by marty998 »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3134 on: July 21, 2020, 04:48:24 PM »
sounds like a lot of misinformation from both of you

HPstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3135 on: July 21, 2020, 04:53:08 PM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3136 on: July 21, 2020, 05:15:24 PM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

Ha, was just thinking that.  That would make the death rate 0.008% using that method.  I'm guessing the  99.7% figure comes from the CDC's estimate of 0.3% IFR. 

« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:18:27 PM by HBFIRE »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3137 on: July 21, 2020, 05:21:23 PM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

Ha, was just thinking that.  That would make the death rate 0.008% using that method.  I'm guessing the  99.7% figure comes from the CDC's estimate of 0.3% IFR. 
New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3138 on: July 21, 2020, 05:24:12 PM »
A friend of mine lives in Idaho... I managed to get in a Facebook argument with his wife (she’s the local, he’s Australian and moved there).

She posted some FB picture about the MSM only covering the big increase in cases but not “celebrating” the low death rate.

She tagged it “yay! Herd Immunity”.

I took her to task about it and said no one should celebrate 1000 deaths a day. People who have died needlessly because other folks can’t do basic things like wear masks and keep a reasonable distance from each other. I also pointed out that herd immunity is when people are vaccinated in sufficient numbers that virtually no one gets ill (e.g. whooping cough, measles etc).

She basically said “do you know my background?” So I asked her to explain. She’s apparently some sort of nurse. She said that everyone should catch it so it’s over and done with. I pointed out the example of the Brazilian President who caught it twice.

Her friend chimes in to rip into me that America should let the virus circulate freely amongst the healthy population so that herd immunity can be gained, because lockdowns are not an option because “nobody wants to live like that”.

I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

I gave up. But I now have a better understanding of what we are up against. The problem is not the virus, it’s people who fundamentally believe they are right but have no clue at all.

I've bolded the portions that I think HBFire is referring to.

- Herd immunity can refer to immunity by any means, not just vaccination. She was also wrong to relate herd immunity to death rates.
- Bolsonaro did not catch the virus twice, he took the test twice and tested positive both times.
- if total deaths were divided by world population you'd get a survival rate of 99.992%. I suspect her source made some erroneous assumptions because there are still lots of unknown variables in the infection fatality rate(IFR) equation, but .3% IFR is not out of the realm of possibility.

You're still in the right that the idea of just letting it spread freely would be very, very bad. Even at IFR .3% (an optimistic number) if 50-70% of the population contracted the virus that would equate to 500k-700k deaths, not to mention the impact of time spent sick, survivors who experience long term injuries, and of course the fact that hospitals would be overwhelmed causing the IFR to rise due to lack of resources.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3139 on: July 21, 2020, 05:29:57 PM »

New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Thanks, its been awhile since I visited their estimates.  I know the range of estimates has been in the 0.3-1% range.  The serological studies done thus far have converged to a median average of 0.38%.

The main problem with these estimates is that they don't jive with what we saw in NY.  If I remember correctly, close to 0.2% of NYC's entire population has died of covid 19.

« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:33:29 PM by HBFIRE »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3140 on: July 21, 2020, 05:33:14 PM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It only goes up to the week ending July 11, though. It'll be interesting to see how the graph looks in another month or two.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:36:35 PM by Shane »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3141 on: July 21, 2020, 05:36:22 PM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in a month or two.

The CDC's site is a poor tool to look at recent trends, as it utilizes death certificate data which can be delayed 8 weeks.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3142 on: July 21, 2020, 05:37:14 PM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in a month or two.

The CDC's site is a poor tool to look at recent trends, as it utilizes death certificate data which can be delayed 8 weeks.

What's a better source?

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3143 on: July 21, 2020, 05:38:59 PM »

What's a better source?

All sources seem to have their own issues.  I monitor worldometer to get a sense of trends, but it has its own problems as well like data dumps from deaths late to report.  The CDC is great in that it gives accurate data and uses accurate dates, but its painfully slow to update.  Long term that will be a much better source to use.  Just not very useful if you want to know whats happening right now.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:43:48 PM by HBFIRE »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3144 on: July 21, 2020, 05:40:11 PM »

New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Thanks, its been awhile since I visited their estimates.  I know the range of estimates has been in the 0.3-1% range.  The serological studies done thus far have converged to a median average of 0.38%.

The main problem with these estimates is that they don't jive with what we saw in NY.  If I remember correctly, close to 0.2% of NYC's entire population has died of covid 19.
The NYC data is skewed by what I call the "Cuomovirus" where he sent the infected back to elderly care facilities to spread the virus, with the unsurprising result being many thousands dead in the most vulnerable age group. But like everything else with this, we either don't have the data or don't have good data. I have believed in an IFR ranging from 0.2-0.8% for a while.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3145 on: July 21, 2020, 06:10:20 PM »

What's a better source?

All sources seem to have their own issues.  I monitor worldometer to get a sense of trends, but it has its own problems as well like data dumps from deaths late to report.  The CDC is great in that it gives accurate data and uses accurate dates, but its painfully slow to update.  Long term that will be a much better source to use.  Just not very useful if you want to know whats happening right now.

Wonder if that will continue to be true, since the Trump Administration has, apparently, cut CDC out of the information loop in favor of DHHS?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3146 on: July 21, 2020, 06:52:45 PM »

What's a better source?

All sources seem to have their own issues.  I monitor worldometer to get a sense of trends, but it has its own problems as well like data dumps from deaths late to report.  The CDC is great in that it gives accurate data and uses accurate dates, but its painfully slow to update.  Long term that will be a much better source to use.  Just not very useful if you want to know whats happening right now.

Wonder if that will continue to be true, since the Trump Administration has, apparently, cut CDC out of the information loop in favor of DHHS?

You can guarantee that the Trump controlled DHHS will be unreliable . . . so I'm guessing that the CDC will still be the only reliable source of information for the US.  Assuming that any source still exists.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3147 on: July 21, 2020, 08:57:22 PM »
Some more interesting facts from our state government press conferences (which are surprisingly candid and make for interesting watching)

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"Andrews said that 53% of people who tested positive between 7 and 21 July in Victoria (2,056 of 3,810 cases) did not isolate. So, one in two.

"That is, did not stay at home and have no contact with anybody else between when they had their test taken and when they got the results of that test.

"Fifty-three percent of people continuing to go shopping, continuing to go to work, continuing to do all sorts of things even though they’ve got symptoms, they feel sick, sick enough to get a test, and then, somehow, not willing to stay at home and wait — on average — a couple of days, and sometimes sooner — to get the results of that test.

What a massive dereliction of duty. If you're sick, you should stay home and self-isolate. It only takes 2 days for a test result to come back.

The virus is raging in aged care centres because sick employees have kept on working despite being symptomatic. This is despite everyone being entitled to $1500 in free money if they have to take time off work due to Covid. We have also doubled the dole to a very generous $570 per week. So there's no excuse to keep working, whether you have sick leave or not.

I think the Victorian government has handled the situation pretty well. They have been flexible with lockdowns, haven't gone too hard or too soft in the past 2 months, and have been sending the right messages.

The only thing they screwed up was the Quarantine Hotel situation but I'm not convinced you can do anything to stop security guards having sex with known-infected patients. That's human error, not governmental error.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3148 on: July 21, 2020, 09:00:01 PM »
The NYC data is skewed by what I call the "Cuomovirus" where he sent the infected back to elderly care facilities to spread the virus, with the unsurprising result being many thousands dead in the most vulnerable age group.
We're looking at something similar here. People testing positive in an aged care facility aren't being moved from it until they need ICU. The result is that they're infecting the rest of the facility, and the staff, too - who tend to work at several facilities. It's going to wipe those poor bastards out.

Other states are sending infected aged care residents straight to hospital and aren't seeing the same outbreaks.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3149 on: July 21, 2020, 09:13:11 PM »
More from Daniel Andrews

Quote
That seems to be because the biggest place of transmisison in recent weeks – 80% of new cases – is the workplace.

If we were to move to a further stage of restrictions where other movement was limited ... where you might be able to go shopping, how many people might be able to leave the house at any one time – just to give you a couple of examples – will that stop people going to work that are going to work now? No.

So the key factor here: we can’t rule those measures out but, at this stage, the key factor here that’s driving the numbers and driving our challenge is people that are sick but not getting tested. They ultimately do get tested, many of them. But in those intervening days, they are going about their business with symptoms at the height of their infectivity, giving it to others.

Applause to the government for not introducing more restrictions (though not sure what those would look like anyway. Shutting down all retail? Probably a step too far and hurtful for the economy.)

I've sort of gotten used to life with the current restrictions. You can't meet friends in person but you can still see romantic partners in person ("intimate partners" is the phrasing and that can be variously interpreted). You can't drive long distances for exercise but you can still travel a reasonable distance to exercise. You can still exercise with a friend. You can still play sports (with 1 other person). I think it's a pretty reasonable set of restrictions.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!