Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675104 times)

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3000 on: July 10, 2020, 06:08:55 PM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...

Based on their track record, I'm guessing no.  But it's mostly a problem with Texas citizens, many of whom are now strutting around openly flouting the recent masking ordinance. The businesses all post signs about masking and social distancing, but do nothing to enforce them.  I have not once seen anyone even speak to an unmasked customer about it.  I was in Sprouts the other day...they've been much better than average in terms of taking this seriously, but yesterday one of their employees apparently got off shift, and proceeded to very ostentatiously take his mask off in the middle of the store and to walk around maskless, then stand in line talking loudly (thus projecting breath) with other employees.    Then there is the fact that a bunch of Texas sheriffs are actively refusing to even attempt to enforce the masking ordinance. So...

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3001 on: July 10, 2020, 06:38:44 PM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...

Based on their track record, I'm guessing no.  But it's mostly a problem with Texas citizens, many of whom are now strutting around openly flouting the recent masking ordinance. The businesses all post signs about masking and social distancing, but do nothing to enforce them.  I have not once seen anyone even speak to an unmasked customer about it.  I was in Sprouts the other day...they've been much better than average in terms of taking this seriously, but yesterday one of their employees apparently got off shift, and proceeded to very ostentatiously take his mask off in the middle of the store and to walk around maskless, then stand in line talking loudly (thus projecting breath) with other employees.    Then there is the fact that a bunch of Texas sheriffs are actively refusing to even attempt to enforce the masking ordinance. So...

Do you live in Texas?      And why are Texans so dis-interested?     You would be socially ostracized here for doing something like that and we have very few cases...

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3002 on: July 10, 2020, 07:20:23 PM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...

Based on their track record, I'm guessing no.  But it's mostly a problem with Texas citizens, many of whom are now strutting around openly flouting the recent masking ordinance. The businesses all post signs about masking and social distancing, but do nothing to enforce them.  I have not once seen anyone even speak to an unmasked customer about it.  I was in Sprouts the other day...they've been much better than average in terms of taking this seriously, but yesterday one of their employees apparently got off shift, and proceeded to very ostentatiously take his mask off in the middle of the store and to walk around maskless, then stand in line talking loudly (thus projecting breath) with other employees.    Then there is the fact that a bunch of Texas sheriffs are actively refusing to even attempt to enforce the masking ordinance. So...

Do you live in Texas?      And why are Texans so dis-interested?     You would be socially ostracized here for doing something like that and we have very few cases...

:shrug:  I live in a college town that is still considered one of the most conservative cities in the entire country.  Most people here are very conservative baptists, and I suspect a lot of people probably believe jesus will protect them b/c they are righteous or whatever.  The disease, and esp mask-wearing, has been politicized since the beginning.  People 'test' you by coming at you to greet you with bare hands stretched out to shake...I just had someone do this to me a couple days ago; if you don't want to shake...they give you the side-eye.    Recently, the masking edict has increased mask-wearing frequency, but for all the previous months, we've had people give us significant eye contact while getting in our personal space at stores...b/c wearing a mask marked us clearly as "Potentially Liberal, Probably not a Trump Supporter, and Possibly Even Not Good Religious Folk". 

Texas is a brand of crazy unto itself. Florida...well, I couldn't say...they don't strike me as being like Texas, so a different brand of insanity might be happening over there.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3003 on: July 10, 2020, 08:10:47 PM »

:shrug:  I live in a college town that is still considered one of the most conservative cities in the entire country.  Most people here are very conservative baptists, and I suspect a lot of people probably believe jesus will protect them b/c they are righteous or whatever.  The disease, and esp mask-wearing, has been politicized since the beginning.  People 'test' you by coming at you to greet you with bare hands stretched out to shake...I just had someone do this to me a couple days ago; if you don't want to shake...they give you the side-eye.    Recently, the masking edict has increased mask-wearing frequency, but for all the previous months, we've had people give us significant eye contact while getting in our personal space at stores...b/c wearing a mask marked us clearly as "Potentially Liberal, Probably not a Trump Supporter, and Possibly Even Not Good Religious Folk". 

Texas is a brand of crazy unto itself. Florida...well, I couldn't say...they don't strike me as being like Texas, so a different brand of insanity might be happening over there.

Have a FB friend from one of the more “rural” US states if I can put it politely. She’s posting a lot about the rapture and how everyone needs to read Revelation and accept Jesus.

End of days is near according to her...

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3004 on: July 10, 2020, 08:12:27 PM »
They're owning the libs by shaking hands!     Christians for Trump indeed.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3005 on: July 10, 2020, 08:13:14 PM »

:shrug:  I live in a college town that is still considered one of the most conservative cities in the entire country.  Most people here are very conservative baptists, and I suspect a lot of people probably believe jesus will protect them b/c they are righteous or whatever.  The disease, and esp mask-wearing, has been politicized since the beginning.  People 'test' you by coming at you to greet you with bare hands stretched out to shake...I just had someone do this to me a couple days ago; if you don't want to shake...they give you the side-eye.    Recently, the masking edict has increased mask-wearing frequency, but for all the previous months, we've had people give us significant eye contact while getting in our personal space at stores...b/c wearing a mask marked us clearly as "Potentially Liberal, Probably not a Trump Supporter, and Possibly Even Not Good Religious Folk". 

Texas is a brand of crazy unto itself. Florida...well, I couldn't say...they don't strike me as being like Texas, so a different brand of insanity might be happening over there.

Have a FB friend from one of the more “rural” US states if I can put it politely. She’s posting a lot about the rapture and how everyone needs to read Revelation and accept Jesus.

End of days is near according to her...

And, for many people in the US, she's right. The end times, they are a comin'!

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3006 on: July 11, 2020, 02:58:01 AM »

:shrug:  I live in a college town that is still considered one of the most conservative cities in the entire country.  Most people here are very conservative baptists, and I suspect a lot of people probably believe jesus will protect them b/c they are righteous or whatever.  The disease, and esp mask-wearing, has been politicized since the beginning.  People 'test' you by coming at you to greet you with bare hands stretched out to shake...I just had someone do this to me a couple days ago; if you don't want to shake...they give you the side-eye.    Recently, the masking edict has increased mask-wearing frequency, but for all the previous months, we've had people give us significant eye contact while getting in our personal space at stores...b/c wearing a mask marked us clearly as "Potentially Liberal, Probably not a Trump Supporter, and Possibly Even Not Good Religious Folk". 

Texas is a brand of crazy unto itself. Florida...well, I couldn't say...they don't strike me as being like Texas, so a different brand of insanity might be happening over there.

Have a FB friend from one of the more “rural” US states if I can put it politely. She’s posting a lot about the rapture and how everyone needs to read Revelation and accept Jesus.

End of days is near according to her...

And, for many people in the US, she's right. The end times, they are a comin'!

Sooner rather than later given the way that curve is ‘flattening’. 70,000 in a day! :O


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3007 on: July 11, 2020, 08:10:54 AM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...

Based on their track record, I'm guessing no.  But it's mostly a problem with Texas citizens, many of whom are now strutting around openly flouting the recent masking ordinance. The businesses all post signs about masking and social distancing, but do nothing to enforce them.  I have not once seen anyone even speak to an unmasked customer about it.  I was in Sprouts the other day...they've been much better than average in terms of taking this seriously, but yesterday one of their employees apparently got off shift, and proceeded to very ostentatiously take his mask off in the middle of the store and to walk around maskless, then stand in line talking loudly (thus projecting breath) with other employees.    Then there is the fact that a bunch of Texas sheriffs are actively refusing to even attempt to enforce the masking ordinance. So...

I'm not familiar with the way sheriffs in the US work.  Are they not obligated to uphold the law?  If a police chief publicly and purposefully failed to enforce the law here, he would be failing to do his job and be removed.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3008 on: July 11, 2020, 08:43:24 AM »
Oh, @GuitarStv, upholding justice and unequal policing is kind of in the spotlight in the US right now.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3009 on: July 11, 2020, 08:59:50 AM »
Are you kidding?   This is the job of a sheriff in Texas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OibaosBrPr8&t=7m30s

Spiffy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3010 on: July 11, 2020, 09:10:52 AM »
I live in Texas. People are finally wearing masks in stores. Not everyone is doing it right (lots of exposed noses) but I think they are trying. I have seen people get turned away because they didn't have masks. Our Mayor had to be the voice of reason because the the Governor refused for so long. And I do think another shut down is coming. Yesterday at the grocery store...no toilet paper! Let the hoarding begin again!

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3011 on: July 11, 2020, 09:15:40 AM »
:shrug:  I live in a college town that is still considered one of the most conservative cities in the entire country.  Most people here are very conservative baptists, and I suspect a lot of people probably believe jesus will protect them b/c they are righteous or whatever. 

...


Lubbock?

Got it in one.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3012 on: July 11, 2020, 10:11:18 AM »
I live in Texas. People are finally wearing masks in stores. Not everyone is doing it right (lots of exposed noses) but I think they are trying. I have seen people get turned away because they didn't have masks. Our Mayor had to be the voice of reason because the the Governor refused for so long. And I do think another shut down is coming. Yesterday at the grocery store...no toilet paper!Let the hoarding begin again!

You mean they already went through the hoarded toilet paper from March?!

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3013 on: July 11, 2020, 10:36:03 AM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...

Based on their track record, I'm guessing no.  But it's mostly a problem with Texas citizens, many of whom are now strutting around openly flouting the recent masking ordinance. The businesses all post signs about masking and social distancing, but do nothing to enforce them.  I have not once seen anyone even speak to an unmasked customer about it.  I was in Sprouts the other day...they've been much better than average in terms of taking this seriously, but yesterday one of their employees apparently got off shift, and proceeded to very ostentatiously take his mask off in the middle of the store and to walk around maskless, then stand in line talking loudly (thus projecting breath) with other employees.    Then there is the fact that a bunch of Texas sheriffs are actively refusing to even attempt to enforce the masking ordinance. So...

I'm not familiar with the way sheriffs in the US work.  Are they not obligated to uphold the law?  If a police chief publicly and purposefully failed to enforce the law here, he would be failing to do his job and be removed.

Unfortunately, sheriffs in the US are usually elected, so they're basically like politicians. Many sheriffs have publicly stated that they will refuse to uphold their governors' and state public health officials' "unlawful" and "unconstitutional" mandates regarding covid. The same thing has been happening with gun laws. Sheriffs, claiming to be defending the US Constitution, have been publicly announcing that they will not be enforcing "unconstitutional" laws restricting citizens' rights to keep and bear arms. Not surprisingly, the sheriffs making these proclamations are usually Republicans and the governors the sheriffs are rebelling against are usually Democrats. Republicans actually learned this technique from Democrats, who, for years, have been doing basically the same thing with their "sanctuary cities," where local politicians, who control law enforcement, refuse to assist the federal government in the enforcement of immigration laws.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3014 on: July 11, 2020, 11:20:19 AM »
Looks like in AZ, per family members there, they are doing forced testing for all citizens.  They received notifications in the mail.  Good idea.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3015 on: July 11, 2020, 02:12:25 PM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...

Based on their track record, I'm guessing no.  But it's mostly a problem with Texas citizens, many of whom are now strutting around openly flouting the recent masking ordinance. The businesses all post signs about masking and social distancing, but do nothing to enforce them.  I have not once seen anyone even speak to an unmasked customer about it.  I was in Sprouts the other day...they've been much better than average in terms of taking this seriously, but yesterday one of their employees apparently got off shift, and proceeded to very ostentatiously take his mask off in the middle of the store and to walk around maskless, then stand in line talking loudly (thus projecting breath) with other employees.    Then there is the fact that a bunch of Texas sheriffs are actively refusing to even attempt to enforce the masking ordinance. So...

I'm not familiar with the way sheriffs in the US work.  Are they not obligated to uphold the law?  If a police chief publicly and purposefully failed to enforce the law here, he would be failing to do his job and be removed.

Unfortunately, sheriffs in the US are usually elected, so they're basically like politicians. Many sheriffs have publicly stated that they will refuse to uphold their governors' and state public health officials' "unlawful" and "unconstitutional" mandates regarding covid. The same thing has been happening with gun laws. Sheriffs, claiming to be defending the US Constitution, have been publicly announcing that they will not be enforcing "unconstitutional" laws restricting citizens' rights to keep and bear arms. Not surprisingly, the sheriffs making these proclamations are usually Republicans and the governors the sheriffs are rebelling against are usually Democrats. Republicans actually learned this technique from Democrats, who, for years, have been doing basically the same thing with their "sanctuary cities," where local politicians, who control law enforcement, refuse to assist the federal government in the enforcement of immigration laws.

So US sheriffs are beholden to nobody, and there's no unifying body of law in the US?  You just elect someone (and therefore elect to have different laws) wherever you live?  Seems like an odd way of doing policing.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3016 on: July 11, 2020, 02:23:52 PM »
Oh bless y'all's little Canadian hearts.  Southerners have a long history of being contrary just out of spite.  Liberals are telling them there's a pandemic they should take seriously.  Well we're not going to.  It's all a big liberal hoax.  It's not any worse than the flu.  We need to make sure to keep the economy humming. 

And thinking law enforcement is going to enforce any laws foisted upon them by liberals, well refer back to the 1860s.  Things don't change very fast down here.

gaja

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3017 on: July 11, 2020, 02:35:19 PM »
Meanwhile, in Norway, people are holding wedding ceremonies at the border so the groom's Swedish family can attend. The Mayor is officiating in national costume, and the police are laughing in the background: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/BRo8z0/bryllup-i-grenseland-aldri-et-alternativ-aa-utsette

I think we are about to adapt to a new normal.

(Masks are not mandated in the Nordic countries).


habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3018 on: July 11, 2020, 03:42:10 PM »
(Masks are not mandated in the Nordic countries).

...from which the learning point should be that masks or not ain't the deciding factor for how this goes. I'm a bit baffled by the obsession with masks or lack thereof. Getting infections to a very low rate is perfectly possible without the entire nation wearing one.

In other news the ICU wards in Sweden are emptying at a rather brisk pace. Almost noone ends up there anymore. Despite the country having around 1000 new cases / day (would translate to >30.000 / day if scaled to US population).

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3019 on: July 11, 2020, 04:00:09 PM »
People here have been buying up toilet paper again too. The shops have reimposed limits.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3020 on: July 11, 2020, 04:04:24 PM »
(Masks are not mandated in the Nordic countries).

...from which the learning point should be that masks or not ain't the deciding factor for how this goes. I'm a bit baffled by the obsession with masks or lack thereof. Getting infections to a very low rate is perfectly possible without the entire nation wearing one.

Maybe in your country. Too many people in mine think that not being able to get a salon haircut is a violation of their constitutional rights.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3021 on: July 11, 2020, 04:09:27 PM »
Maybe in your country. Too many people in mine think that not being able to get a salon haircut is a violation of their constitutional rights.

Yes, but given that attitude I don't think masks will be the silver bullet. The problem is much more fundamental than anything a mask can solve.

We had a mask debate in march/april as well btw, as mentioned above it wasn't mandated and apart from a few very loud voices arguing for it, it was never really close to getting to a thing at all. It was pointed at the Asian success with curbing the spread, to which a popular comment was that "maybe we should stop writing in latin letters as well to stop the spread". Correlation does not equal causality.

I don't think masks are counterproductive, I just think the problem is much greater than anything solvable by a mask.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3022 on: July 11, 2020, 04:11:16 PM »
(Masks are not mandated in the Nordic countries).

...from which the learning point should be that masks or not ain't the deciding factor for how this goes. I'm a bit baffled by the obsession with masks or lack thereof. Getting infections to a very low rate is perfectly possible without the entire nation wearing one.

In other news the ICU wards in Sweden are emptying at a rather brisk pace. Almost noone ends up there anymore. Despite the country having around 1000 new cases / day (would translate to >30.000 / day if scaled to US population).

I would guess it is more dependent on social distancing, which makes me worried about the coming situation in hospitals. There are at least two sets of parties among my 20 year old neighbours tonight. One started outside and I guess they joined those inside. Two weeks ago it was about 15 males in their forties drinking beer from lunch to midnight mostly outside.

I got myself tested on thursday as I have had a low grade cold for 1,5 weeks and I would like to travel to my parents if it is a normal cold. I have postponed the rental car twice now. Tonight I got the result that they could not get any results so they recommend another testing. arghh
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 04:13:50 PM by Plina »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3023 on: July 11, 2020, 04:44:31 PM »
Maybe in your country. Too many people in mine think that not being able to get a salon haircut is a violation of their constitutional rights.

Yes, but given that attitude I don't think masks will be the silver bullet. The problem is much more fundamental than anything a mask can solve.

We had a mask debate in march/april as well btw, as mentioned above it wasn't mandated and apart from a few very loud voices arguing for it, it was never really close to getting to a thing at all. It was pointed at the Asian success with curbing the spread, to which a popular comment was that "maybe we should stop writing in latin letters as well to stop the spread". Correlation does not equal causality.

I don't think masks are counterproductive, I just think the problem is much greater than anything solvable by a mask.
Speaking of Asian success, I think we are very far away from understanding exactly what matters even if mask-wearing is almost certain to be strongly net-positive in controlling spread. For example, the variant of SARS-CoV-2 that is up to 9x better at spreading (in cell cultures) is prevalent in Europe and the US, while the less-easily spread one has been more prevalent in east Asia:
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=gt-S_614

It's amusing to watch all of this as a non-partisan and non-ideological person and see how each political team frames every bit of news to indicate the other team is batshit crazy (pun intended, though I guess SARS-CoV-2 likely came from a Chinese lab rather than from under-cooked bat soup). But aside from being amusing, that inability to think about reality in a rational way will be the downfall of civilization; if that's the case, thanks, everyone, for all the memes while it lasted!

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3024 on: July 11, 2020, 06:54:13 PM »
(Masks are not mandated in the Nordic countries).

...from which the learning point should be that masks or not ain't the deciding factor for how this goes. I'm a bit baffled by the obsession with masks or lack thereof. Getting infections to a very low rate is perfectly possible without the entire nation wearing one.

In other news the ICU wards in Sweden are emptying at a rather brisk pace. Almost noone ends up there anymore. Despite the country having around 1000 new cases / day (would translate to >30.000 / day if scaled to US population).

I was speaking to a doctor friend and she was insistent that masks reduce transmission and that the health advice of our government to date (that masks are unnecessary/don't help much) is wrong. It's clear that you can get infections to a very low rate without having masks (since Australia and NZ both did that), but possibly masks can slow down any resurgence that comes up. Sort of like an airbag. You should never need one while driving, but it can come in handy nonetheless.

That said, the advice has slowly been changing/evolving (even here in Victoria, we're now recommended to wear masks in certain situations, and that was not the advice till now), so it's hard to draw firm conclusions.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3025 on: July 11, 2020, 08:52:00 PM »
I was speaking to a doctor friend and she was insistent that masks reduce transmission and that the health advice of our government to date (that masks are unnecessary/don't help much) is wrong. It's clear that you can get infections to a very low rate without having masks (since Australia and NZ both did that), but possibly masks can slow down any resurgence that comes up.
Masks are mostly useful for ensuring you don't make others sick, rather than protecting yourself. They're most useful when the risks are high, either because you're working with the vulnerable, or because there's a fair chance you yourself may be infected.

This is why doctors and nurses in hospitals wear them - the people they're dealing with are already sick, and in the case of surgery, you're dealing with someone's internal organs. So the small amount of whatever virus or bacteria you may carry around, well if passed to someone who's already sick, or put in their internal organs, it's going to mess them up.

In my council area we have 3 active cases and 165,000 people. Masks are not worth bothering with, the chances that I or any other random person will be infectious and not know it are trivial. If we had 10,000 active cases amid 165,000 people, then that's different.

Our state government's advice has changed because testing is showing a lot of people who are infected without symptoms, and the number is higher than they thought it was. But this is almost entirely the north and west of Melbourne. Obviously, people move across the city, so it could easily become all of Melbourne and then the rest of Australia, thus the recent lockdown here and the borders being closed.

If I were in the north or west, and/or working in a customer service role like at a supermarket, then there would be a significant chance of my being infected and not knowing it, and/or a smaller chance but with larger consequences (a customer service person can infect many others), so I would mask up. But 3 in 165,000 is not significant, my workplace has been closed again, so it's just daily walks with the kids and occasional trips to the shops, and I've never gone to the crowded shops anyway.

LaineyAZ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3026 on: July 11, 2020, 09:05:23 PM »
Looks like in AZ, per family members there, they are doing forced testing for all citizens.  They received notifications in the mail.  Good idea.

huh?  Are these people the ones who have been identified by contact tracing?  I haven't heard about any forced tests here.

HPstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3027 on: July 11, 2020, 09:10:28 PM »
Trump is wearing a mask now... we must be really fucked in the USA

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3028 on: July 11, 2020, 10:12:02 PM »

Masks are mostly useful for ensuring you don't make others sick, rather than protecting yourself.

That was the prevalent thinking.  However, new research indicates a mask decreases risk of infection to the wearer by 65 percent


Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3029 on: July 11, 2020, 10:21:20 PM »
Not uncontested research. 

The arithmetic doesn't change much either way. If there are 3 cases among 165,000 people, you're unlikely to be a person spreading it, and unlikely to meet a person spreading it. If there are 10,000 among those 165,000, you're likely to be and to meet one. Somewhere in between is where it gets foggy.

Masks will be useful where there are a lot of cases, or where the person comes into prolonged close contact with lots of people, or vulnerable people.

Since most schools, businesses and offices are closed, and we're only permitted to go out for exercise and shopping (for work and education, too, but see: closed schools and businesses), we won't have much if any need for masks here in Melbourne.

In other places it'll be different.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3030 on: July 11, 2020, 10:25:19 PM »
Masks reduce infection both ways. I never understood why it would be thought otherwise, and advised masks for my patients regardless. Anecdotally my team only wore surgical masks when interacting with my patient who turned out to have covid, and we were not exposed (PCR and antibody negative). We wore gloves when examining the patient, so that’s another variable. Also I clean my hands around 50 times per day. Point being, all of these measures add up to incrementally reduce the risk of exposure, even in high risk environments. With the known Covid+ patients, we wear N95 masks and face shields along with gowns and gloves.

I agree that masks are low yield in a low risk environment like Australia. In the US they’re very important.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3031 on: July 12, 2020, 04:42:59 AM »
I don't know why there's a debate on basic measures like masks. The people that went to Africa and Asia in the 60s/70s to track down unknown and deadly viruses had nothing. They had literally nothing. They had yellow dishwashing gloves that they rewashed, bleach and masks - and they were up against Ebola, Hanta, West Nile, HIV and a heap of other nasties. By and large, they managed not to infect themselves, and these were in conditions where they didn't even know how the agent infected people! They survived because they had great processes and they were very, very careful. Stringent processes are worth much more than people think. It's not all about antibiotics and vaccines and ventilators. Viruses have been around for millennia. Communities survived outbreaks because of things like quarantines, social distancing, mask and gloves. They didn't have anything else.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3032 on: July 12, 2020, 05:06:17 AM »
When I have to go inside a store to buy food, or whatever, I wear a mask. People like to argue about how effective masks are and who they protect, but I don't really care about those details. I think there's enough evidence out there that masks help reduce spread of diseases like covid, so I'm fine with wearing one. What worries me is when people start relying on masks to rationalize relaxing social distancing. A couple of at risk relatives, who have been perfectly fine working from home for the past 4 months, are getting forced to go back to working in an office with a bunch of other people, and their companies are rationalizing the move, saying everything will be fine, "because we'll all be wearing masks." I'm sorry, but if workers don't have to be in a shared office, why force them to do so? It makes no sense to me. Masks aren't some kind of panacea. They're better than nothing, but avoiding any unnecessary physical contact with other humans is the only way to be sure of not getting sick. I just feel like masks seem to be giving some people a false sense of security.

beltim

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3033 on: July 12, 2020, 05:27:23 AM »
Not uncontested research. 

The arithmetic doesn't change much either way. If there are 3 cases among 165,000 people, you're unlikely to be a person spreading it, and unlikely to meet a person spreading it. If there are 10,000 among those 165,000, you're likely to be and to meet one. Somewhere in between is where it gets foggy.

You know how you go from 3 to 10,000 cases?  By not wearing masks.

Waiting to take measures we know are effective results in more people getting sick and dying.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3034 on: July 12, 2020, 08:14:37 AM »
I will bet you $100 that my council area of 165,000 people will not get 10,000 cases - shall we say by the end of the year? I'm posting under my real name, so it's easy to hold me to the bet - whereas you as the typical anonymous drongo online, it's a lot harder. So you've got good odds here.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3035 on: July 12, 2020, 08:31:26 AM »
I will bet you $100 that my council area of 165,000 people will not get 10,000 cases - shall we say by the end of the year? I'm posting under my real name, so it's easy to hold me to the bet - whereas you as the typical anonymous drongo online, it's a lot harder. So you've got good odds here.

You are in Australia, where governments are being sensible.  So that is a no go.  Now, if you were in one of the US states that are being stupid . . . . .

beltim

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3036 on: July 12, 2020, 09:41:04 AM »
I will bet you $100 that my council area of 165,000 people will not get 10,000 cases - shall we say by the end of the year? I'm posting under my real name, so it's easy to hold me to the bet - whereas you as the typical anonymous drongo online, it's a lot harder. So you've got good odds here.

Violation of forum rules aside, the bet doesn’t make sense because Melbourne will act rationally to prevent the spread of Covid. If you find me some similarly infected place somewhere that is discouraging mask use, I will take you up on that bet.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3037 on: July 12, 2020, 09:52:25 AM »
I'd like another week of data that isn't polluted by a holiday weekend in order to confirm, but it really looks likes US deaths are on the rise again, after falling/leveling out for about 2.5 months.

After a few more days, the trend is clearer. Deaths are going up in the US. It’s early on Sunday but it’s already clear that today is on pace for the worst Sunday in a month. The uptick in deaths has lagged the uptick in cases by about two or three weeks, and cases growth hasn’t slowed down or reversed. We’re probably looking at a month of growing daily deaths. Or if I’m being optimistic, sustained higher deaths. It’s getting nasty again. Stay safe.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3038 on: July 12, 2020, 06:33:51 PM »
You are in Australia, where governments are being sensible.  So that is a no go.  Now, if you were in one of the US states that are being stupid . . . . .
You didn't say that, you said: "You know how you go from 3 to 10,000 cases?  By not wearing masks."

So your assertion was that regardless of what government does, if we do not wear masks we'll go from 3 to 10,000 cases. Which is abject nonsense. Almost as much nonsense as our government, which has -

- closed retail which is out in the open with constant fresh air, while keeping open retail inside shopping centres with recycled air, as you can read here,  and
- insisted that we face having a healthcare system overwhelmed and so need to lock everyone down again, while at the same time keeping medical centres closed and cancelling contracts for ICU gear, which you can read about here.

Our country does not face the same problems as yours. This is partly because of the irresolute inadequacies of your government, but also because of your culture. Your country has twice the lethal car accident rate, and workplace deaths rate, and many multiples the accidental firearms deaths rate. America is quite simply a more careless culture than comparable Western countries.

Here people who have tested positive or who are awaiting tests mostly isolate themselves. I would expect fewer to do so in the US, not only from carelessness but also from necessity, as they lack a social safety net, so those minimum wage workers in customer service roles have to go to work, or be evicted or not eat.

In America, I would wear a mask, and probably a kevlar vest, too. Here I don't have to.

Culture matters. Australian culture has the flaw of an instinctive turn to authoritarianism. It comes from our convict heritage, the government can't help but think of themselves as prison wardens. American culture is careless and fails to look after its most vulnerable. Here the greatest danger to our health is the government, in your country it's your fellow citizens being idiots.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3039 on: July 12, 2020, 10:41:49 PM »
Latest update on cases and deaths per state:

Some states are seeing a clear uptick in deaths per day:

Arizona, California, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas. Overall deaths per day remain low in each state (California and Texas have the most at 100 & 80 yesterday - also the two most populous states).

Others have not had major loss of life (either no increase in deaths or less than 10 per day).

Overall the fatality rate remains much lower than the case counts, which is encouraging. However, several states (Texas, Florida, Arizona) are at or near max ICU capacity, and are starting to show the effects of this breakdown.  I am concerned we will not be off this first wave before the fall one (COVID + Influenza) hits. As I've told several colleagues, this fall we're all COVIDologists.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3040 on: July 13, 2020, 04:46:52 AM »
You are in Australia, where governments are being sensible.  So that is a no go.  Now, if you were in one of the US states that are being stupid . . . . .
You didn't say that, you said: "You know how you go from 3 to 10,000 cases?  By not wearing masks."

So your assertion was that regardless of what government does, if we do not wear masks we'll go from 3 to 10,000 cases. Which is abject nonsense. Almost as much nonsense as our government, which has -

- closed retail which is out in the open with constant fresh air, while keeping open retail inside shopping centres with recycled air, as you can read here,  and
- insisted that we face having a healthcare system overwhelmed and so need to lock everyone down again, while at the same time keeping medical centres closed and cancelling contracts for ICU gear, which you can read about here.

Our country does not face the same problems as yours. This is partly because of the irresolute inadequacies of your government, but also because of your culture. Your country has twice the lethal car accident rate, and workplace deaths rate, and many multiples the accidental firearms deaths rate. America is quite simply a more careless culture than comparable Western countries.

Here people who have tested positive or who are awaiting tests mostly isolate themselves. I would expect fewer to do so in the US, not only from carelessness but also from necessity, as they lack a social safety net, so those minimum wage workers in customer service roles have to go to work, or be evicted or not eat.

In America, I would wear a mask, and probably a kevlar vest, too. Here I don't have to.

Culture matters. Australian culture has the flaw of an instinctive turn to authoritarianism. It comes from our convict heritage, the government can't help but think of themselves as prison wardens. American culture is careless and fails to look after its most vulnerable. Here the greatest danger to our health is the government, in your country it's your fellow citizens being idiots.

Hey Kyle, be careful who you quote, eh?  You are replying to beltim, not me.

Canada and my part, Ontario, may not be doing as well as Australia but we are doing a hell of a lot better than our southern neighbour.  Part of Australia's advantage is being an island continent.

ROF Expat

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3041 on: July 13, 2020, 06:45:35 AM »


Our country does not face the same problems as yours. This is partly because of the irresolute inadequacies of your government

Kyle,

I object most strenuously to your use of the term "irresolute inadequacies."  I think my government, from the beginning and from the top, has been unwaveringly resolute in its inadequacies.   

But I do thank you for teaching me a new use for the word "drongo" which was previously just a bird for me. 

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3042 on: July 13, 2020, 12:29:49 PM »
Doctors in Northern California say they have seen more deaths from suicide than they’ve seen from the coronavirus during the pandemic.


“The numbers are unprecedented,” Dr. Michael deBoisblanc of John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, told ABC 7 News about the increase of deaths by suicide, adding that he’s seen a “year’s worth of suicides” in the last four weeks alone.

DeBoisblanc said he believes it’s time for California officials to end the stay-at-home order and let people back out into their communities.

"Personally, I think it's time," he said. "I think, originally, this was put in place to flatten the curve and to make sure hospitals have the resources to take care of COVID patients. We have the current resources to do that, and our other community health is suffering."

By late March, more people had died in just one Tennessee county from suicide than had died in the entire state directly from the virus.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3043 on: July 13, 2020, 12:51:20 PM »
I’m going to stop you right there on the Tennessee example. We didn’t have any cases at all
In Tennessee until early March. Our first death wasn’t until March 20th, 9 days before this article was published. We weren’t issued safer at home orders as a state until March 31st. Notice I said safer at home order not a mandated shelter in place. That article is just cherry picking useless data to make it’s point.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3044 on: July 13, 2020, 01:18:37 PM »
That article is two months old.  Disingenuous at best.  No actual numbers provided either.  I am skeptical that their claims were even true when the article was published, and I definitely don't believe it now.

I just looked up the stats for suicide vs coronavirus deaths in california for 2019, and the ratio is infinite.  The same is true for the entire USA.  Checkmate scaremongers.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3045 on: July 13, 2020, 04:02:19 PM »
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/doctor-california-coronavirus-suicide-lockdown

Good article examining the claim (which was wrong and not backed by data) and how it caught fire.

Anyway, the comparison shouldn't be suicide deaths vs. COVID deaths. It should be suicide deaths vs. COVID deaths that would have occurred without the stay at home mandate. It's frustrating when we have to go down the rabbit whole debunking something that isn't even a slam dunk against cautionary measures anyway.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3046 on: July 13, 2020, 04:44:59 PM »
Unfortunately, the long term suicide toll will take many years to calculate.  There is also the factor of age here.  This might sound bad, but imo age matters when it comes to the value of a life.  Many of those being hit hardest by this event are younger in their careers (younger than my generation).  The poor, young, and marginalized are being hit the hardest.  For me, I don't mind if we lock down for 10 years, as I can withstand it financially and as an introvert who lives on the beach to stay sane.  But I'm not in the demographic suffering.  It's mostly those who are privileged and able to withstand this economically that are in support of lock downs.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 05:08:23 PM by HBFIRE »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3047 on: July 13, 2020, 04:52:42 PM »
I’m not going down the old folks are less valuable road with anyone.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3048 on: July 13, 2020, 04:54:26 PM »
I’m not going down the old folks are less valuable road with anyone.

My opinion is that someone who has not had the benefit of a full life yet is both ethically of higher importance to protect and carries more economic value on average.  This is just my opinion.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3049 on: July 13, 2020, 04:56:52 PM »
I’m not going down the old folks are less valuable road with anyone.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!