Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675240 times)

mcneally

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2950 on: July 08, 2020, 03:32:39 PM »
Canada has an extremely low population density of 4 people per Km2.  We can compare Alaska to it (which has actually performed better than Canada as a whole), but the US as a whole has a population density of 36 people per Km2 which is a closer comparison to Sweden's of 24 per Km2.
85-90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US. Excluding the other ~90% of largely uninhabited land, Canada and US have similar population density.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2951 on: July 08, 2020, 03:35:45 PM »
Canada has an extremely low population density of 4 people per Km2.  We can compare Alaska to it (which has actually performed better than Canada as a whole), but the US as a whole has a population density of 36 people per Km2 which is a closer comparison to Sweden's of 24 per Km2.
85-90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US. Excluding the other ~90% of largely uninhabited land, Canada and US have similar population density.

Yes. Like I said, it would make more sense to compare cities or regions with similar population sizes and densities. For example, Metro Houston and Greater Toronto both have populations between 6 and 7 million.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2952 on: July 08, 2020, 09:45:45 PM »
the optimist in me looks at the NY data and says: hmm, it looks like a curve of that of a "successful" country. it spiked, and has trended down and flat for a long time.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html

that the rest of the US is largely increasing is a product of when the virus got there and when restrictions were lifted. once the surge occurs and many people die and hospitals are overrun, it should be looking like NY state (largely influenced by NYC).

i think this is the inevitable outcome unless a vaccine is created within the 1st 18 months since the outbreak.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2953 on: July 09, 2020, 06:40:23 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2954 on: July 09, 2020, 06:46:54 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

Yep! And you don’t know who’s going to be the superspreader. Could be someone at the next table in an over-capacity wine bar.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2955 on: July 09, 2020, 07:13:56 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

Yep! And you don’t know who’s going to be the superspreader. Could be someone at the next table in an over-capacity wine bar.

Yeah. Especially if he goes home to the other side of the city to the housing commission where he lives in cramped quarters with 500 other residents.

PoutineLover

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2956 on: July 09, 2020, 07:20:05 AM »
The way I see it, the people who have the option to stay home should, so that the people who need to go out to do their jobs can do so more safely.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2957 on: July 09, 2020, 07:25:59 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

Yep! And you don’t know who’s going to be the superspreader. Could be someone at the next table in an over-capacity wine bar.

Yeah. Especially if he goes home to the other side of the city to the housing commission where he lives in cramped quarters with 500 other residents.

Or if he doesn't live in that area but brings the infection back to his own district unknowingly and infects the handful of people with whom he comes into contact, who then go on to infect their families. Let's not pretend that it was okay for anyone to be in a crowded wine bar during a pandemic.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2958 on: July 09, 2020, 08:13:55 AM »


Yeah. Especially if he goes home to the other side of the city to the housing commission where he lives in cramped quarters with 500 other residents.

Or if he doesn't live in that area but brings the infection back to his own district unknowingly and infects the handful of people with whom he comes into contact, who then go on to infect their families. Let's not pretend that it was okay for anyone to be in a crowded wine bar during a pandemic.

According to the timeline of his posts, Bloop went to the wine bar on Jun 25th.
According to ourworldindata, Australia reported 29 confirmed cases in the entire country that day and hadn't had more than 30 cases in a single day since mid April:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/australia?country=~AUS

Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 08:16:21 AM by Paper Chaser »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2959 on: July 09, 2020, 10:54:47 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.
And those people work in the grocery stores, delivery services, care homes, Uber, airports, bars and everything else that is open.

And so continues the spread.


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obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2960 on: July 09, 2020, 10:57:23 AM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:00:30 AM by obstinate »

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2961 on: July 09, 2020, 11:38:52 AM »
If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

Clearly not everyone thinks the way Bloop does. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that.

I don't get much of any Australian news, but in early May, they were declaring South Australia to be pretty much COVID free as they confidently began easing restrictions:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/asia/australia-coronavirus-success-intl-hnk/index.html

"No more cases in South Australia. This is a landmark for us," South Australia Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said with a big smile during a press briefing on Wednesday.
"I think many people are surprised in Australia at how well we have done. Really, when you look across all the states and territories, this is the safest place to be in the world, perhaps other than New Zealand," she said.


So, new case numbers (for the entire country) had been in the single or low double digits per day for over a month. And you had Government health officials publicly saying that the country is nearly the safest spot in the world, and backing that up by easing restrictions.
It's hard for me to fault Bloop on this one. That situation is different than going to a winebar in a city that's overwhelmed or has hundreds or thousands of new cases per day like many in the US.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:44:49 AM by Paper Chaser »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2962 on: July 09, 2020, 12:34:57 PM »
So you freak out becuase Bloop went to a wine bar during a period in which Australia had all of <30 confirmed new cases and he didn't even wear a mask while doing so? Adjusted for population that's way fewer cases we have had every single day since reopening, bars and restaurants are full (albeit with reduced capacity due to measures) and virtually noone wears a mask over here. Are we a nation full of irresponsible, reckless, selfish Bloops?

(btw hospital numbers keep going down and are super low (7 people in hospital at mom of which 2 in ICU of which 1 on a ventilator) and today was the first week with zero Covid-19 deaths here).

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2963 on: July 09, 2020, 01:10:48 PM »
If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

Clearly not everyone thinks the way Bloop does. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that.
Obviously. Thank goodness for that. The point is that if everyone did behave the same way he does, we'd get more virus. That anyone behaves the way he does is what allows the virus to fester and prevents its elimination.

He has not happened to spread it, so far. Well enough. That absolves him of little. A reckless driver doesn't kill someone every time they go out on the road. But reckless driving is immoral because of what it can statistically be expected to lead to, not because of the outcome of any individual driving session.

Are we a nation full of irresponsible, reckless, selfish Bloops?
If you're following the rules your society has set for handling the virus, I guess it's hard to fault you. If you're flouting the rules while benefiting from other people who are doing a better job adhering to them, that's where it crosses over into selfish behavior, IMO.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 01:16:47 PM by obstinate »

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2964 on: July 09, 2020, 02:09:07 PM »
If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

Clearly not everyone thinks the way Bloop does. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that.
Obviously. Thank goodness for that. The point is that if everyone did behave the same way he does, we'd get more virus. That anyone behaves the way he does is what allows the virus to fester and prevents its elimination.

He has not happened to spread it, so far. Well enough. That absolves him of little. A reckless driver doesn't kill someone every time they go out on the road. But reckless driving is immoral because of what it can statistically be expected to lead to, not because of the outcome of any individual driving session.




Are we a nation full of irresponsible, reckless, selfish Bloops?
If you're following the rules your society has set for handling the virus, I guess it's hard to fault you. If you're flouting the rules while benefiting from other people who are doing a better job adhering to them, that's where it crosses over into selfish behavior, IMO.

Reckless driving is illegal. I don't think anything Bloop did was illegal. Seems like Bloop was "following the rules society has set for handling this virus." If the government in Bloop's location had more or less declared COVID to be defeated, and lifted restrictions preventing him/her from doing what they did, then I'm not seeing much wrong with their actions.

It's silly for people in a much different situation, on the other side of the globe to assume everything is the same everywhere. It's silly when posters from NZ or Aus act like the rest of the world is the same as their situation, and it's no different when Americans and Canadians do it the other direction. That's not to say that nothing can be learned, but we have wildly different situations from one county to another in the US, and you (collective 'you') want to apply the situation where you live to somebody on another hemisphere? To chastise somebody on the other side of the planet through the lens of a specific situation in the US is pointless, and the only reason it's happening is because of Bloop's reputation, not the facts of the situation. Posters are reacting emotionally because of their bias towards the poster.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2965 on: July 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM »
I do not know Bloop, I do not follow bloops posts other than the ones here as they stood out to me as crass and uncaring of others so I felt compelled to respond.

I see bloops attitude much the same as people in the early years of the HIV / AIDs crisis or people that have it well off not caring about others plights because it does not affect them.

While I get the difference in the situation in bloops part of the world the attitude that comes across in bloops post is what I take issue with.


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mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2966 on: July 09, 2020, 02:50:34 PM »
Quote
So, new case numbers (for the entire country) had been in the single or low double digits per day for over a month. And you had Government health officials publicly saying that the country is nearly the safest spot in the world, and backing that up by easing restrictions.
It's hard for me to fault Bloop on this one. That situation is different than going to a winebar in a city that's overwhelmed or has hundreds or thousands of new cases per day like many in the US.

Yep, location and context matters.  I'm not going to fault local friends who are going camping remotely...packing all their own food, not staying in developed campgrounds, distancing from others.  People who are traveling to other cities to stay in hotels or condos, eating out, shopping in public?  Eh, not a bright idea.

Likewise...the wine bars.  Our outdoor wine bars are open.  You will not see me at one, because our daily increases in cases are higher than they have ever been.  Our area opened up too soon.  I will fault people I see on a busy street without a mask.  I don't understand people who want to eat at a restaurant, even though only outdoors is allowed right now.

However, pack up and move to a different area where cases are low to non-existent?  Different story.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2967 on: July 09, 2020, 02:54:50 PM »
Whatever your thoughts on Bloop personally, if a country gets the virus under control, you can relax a lot of precautions.  The risk of a packed wine bar in Australia is completely different than the risk of a packed wine bar in the US because the situations of the two countries are polar opposites when it comes to the virus.  Notice that discovering a cluster of 158 people having the virus is big news in Australia when it would just be another Thursday in the US.  Australia is still going to have to have targeted local shut downs here and there, but the underlying implication is that most of the country will be able to live in semi-normalcy most of the time.  That's the whole point of bringing the pandemic under control.  As a side bonus, Australia probably will be better off economically for it in the long run, too.  Other countries can make it to that place, too. 

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2968 on: July 09, 2020, 03:11:47 PM »
Actually, the rules here in his state said, at the time, that there must be social distancing, that bars were limited to serving meals (and drinks, but only with meals) to customers who had to remain seated, and that you should do several other things that bloop was boasting in the forum about not doing. People were also not supposed to be doing some of the things that he was boasting of doing. They also now say that he isn’t supposed to be doing things that he is still doing, even though his state is in lockdown because it’s gone over 100 cases a day for the past few.

Remember that it’s the middle of winter here, and where bloop lives gets most of its rain as drizzle in winter, so everyone will be inside most of the time.

Both my aged parents are also in bloop’s state. They’re in their 90s, so are highly susceptible. Because of the state lockdown, I won’t be able to visit them for another six weeks. They have been declining. I would like to go there to help get dad a wheelchair, as he has stopped being able to use a walker over the last couple of weeks. Fortunately, I’ve been able to get them more appropriate care when it became available earlier in this pandemic, when I could get approval to visit them for caring purposes. I could get that approval again, but I’d have to quarantine for two weeks when I get home again, and my SO is also highly susceptible.

As bloop has boasted here of his flouting of the rules, I would be surprised if he hadn’t been boasting of this to other people in his state, and encouraging them to flout rules too. If that’s the case, he could bear some responsibility for the lockdown.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 04:06:48 PM by deborah »

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2969 on: July 09, 2020, 05:43:33 PM »
The way I see it, the people who have the option to stay home should, so that the people who need to go out to do their jobs can do so more safely.
I agree!

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2970 on: July 09, 2020, 07:51:43 PM »


As bloop has boasted here of his flouting of the rules, I would be surprised if he hadn’t been boasting of this to other people in his state, and encouraging them to flout rules too. If that’s the case, he could bear some responsibility for the lockdown.

Bloop Bloop has boasted of flouting the rules, and spent MANY posts justifying why he should be able to do so. The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did, and the consequences they all now have to suffer....... and yet he's still trying to justify his flouting of the rules! Bloop should be able to do as he likes but how dare other people feel the same! Absolutely moronic behaviour from everyone involved, and now Victoria's in lockdown.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2971 on: July 09, 2020, 11:25:34 PM »
Bloop's a lawyer, he didn't break the letter of any rules, he just brutally violated the spirit of them. Likewise, 99% of the people on this website follow the letter but not the spirit of tax and investment laws, so they can minimise their taxes and maximise their income. That is to say, people work in their own self-interest even when it might compromise the public good. Bloop goes to his wine bar and passes on his infection and makes someone sick, you do a dodgy tax deduction giving you $1,000 extra this year and some hospital is unable to buy sufficient PPE which makes someone sick.

Let he who is without self-interest cast the first stone.


Here in Victoria, a pair of paramedics saw two people getting 20 KFC meals and dobbed them in to the cops, who tracked down their number plate, followed them, and found them having a surprise birthday party in violation of the current restrictions. A $1,600 fine was issued to each person there. But... what were the paramedics doing at KFC? Junk food is unhealthy, as they know since they go to cardiac events all the time. So they are knowingly harming their own health, which - with our public healthcare system - will cause a financial cost to the rest of the community.


Obviously, Ambulance Victoria needs a Healthy Living Code, and any members of the public who see paramedics eating junk food and lounging about slothfully should be able to dob them in!


Alternately, each of us acts according to our sense and conscience, and doesn't run around scolding others for their misdeeds and dobbing them into the state like the DDR.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:29:19 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2972 on: July 09, 2020, 11:41:38 PM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

When I went to the wine bar, it was completely permissible. Bars had reopened. The lockdown had ended. I am no longer going to any bars or cafes, because they're all closed. If I go on a date now it's a "walking date" (which is permissible, and has negligible chance of infection). If I get to know the other person well enough we might go to my place or her place but that is also permitted too for romantic partners.

Anyway, even putting all that aside, no, it's wrong to say, as another person did in this thread:

Quote
The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did,

Shit no, I don't give a fuck if other people went to wine bars and if that's how the virus spread.

But that's not how it spread. It spread because of quarantine hotel workers having sex with patients. Because of massive extended family get-togethers after a religious holiday. Because of cramped living quarters. In fact the genomic sequencing nidicates that a huge proportion of our NW cluster might have come from one super spreader.

You can't say that me deciding that socialising in a wine bar is okay (in fact, it was lawful) is the same as someone at a quarantine hotel deciding not to take PPE measures as part of his work (unlawful), or deciding to have a huge family get-together (unlawful). Even putting aside the "legality" of it, they're just very different types of risks. It's like the difference between driving fast on an empty country road and driving fast through a pedestrian zone.

Or as Homer Simpson said best, "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." Don't conflate my subjective indifference with the objective seriousness of my conduct.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2973 on: July 10, 2020, 12:16:39 AM »
You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

Yeah I think 3/10 is probably on the low side. Then again, I'm in one of the postcodes that was locked down a week before the rest of the city. I've barely been more than about 3km from home in that time, and I'm carrying around a bottle of hand sanitiser whenever I leave home. I'm also reviewing when I go to the supermarket so I can go in quieter hours, and considering getting a mask for the times I can't.

One super spreader can cover a wide area. Imagine if, say, a courier driver or Uber driver gets it. They're going all over town. What if someone working at Southern Cross or Flinders St station has it?

A month ago, sure, things were different, and I probably would have also gone to the pub or whatever. When it's five cases a day and steady, the approach is going to be different compared to when the daily number of cases is triple figures and rising.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 12:19:07 AM by alsoknownasDean »

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2974 on: July 10, 2020, 02:22:59 AM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

When I went to the wine bar, it was completely permissible. Bars had reopened. The lockdown had ended. I am no longer going to any bars or cafes, because they're all closed. If I go on a date now it's a "walking date" (which is permissible, and has negligible chance of infection). If I get to know the other person well enough we might go to my place or her place but that is also permitted too for romantic partners.

Anyway, even putting all that aside, no, it's wrong to say, as another person did in this thread:

Quote
The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did,

Shit no, I don't give a fuck if other people went to wine bars and if that's how the virus spread.

But that's not how it spread. It spread because of quarantine hotel workers having sex with patients. Because of massive extended family get-togethers after a religious holiday. Because of cramped living quarters. In fact the genomic sequencing nidicates that a huge proportion of our NW cluster might have come from one super spreader.

You can't say that me deciding that socialising in a wine bar is okay (in fact, it was lawful) is the same as someone at a quarantine hotel deciding not to take PPE measures as part of his work (unlawful), or deciding to have a huge family get-together (unlawful). Even putting aside the "legality" of it, they're just very different types of risks. It's like the difference between driving fast on an empty country road and driving fast through a pedestrian zone.

Or as Homer Simpson said best, "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." Don't conflate my subjective indifference with the objective seriousness of my conduct.

Dude, you've shown, and continue to show, a huge lack of understanding of your own situation and other people's on this board. Most people here have put that down to delusion or selfishness. You're the guy that thinks he can speed because he knows the roads. Well, great job. Enjoy your lockdown.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2975 on: July 10, 2020, 03:11:45 AM »
Bloop goes to his wine bar and passes on his infection and makes someone sick, you do a dodgy tax deduction giving you $1,000 extra this year and some hospital is unable to buy sufficient PPE which makes someone sick.

Let he who is without self-interest cast the first stone.

I’ve only ever “cheated” on my taxes once. There was one year where my tax debt came out to about $0.55. I may have claimed a $5 work deduction in order to turn it into a very small refund. I just didn’t want the hassle of paying that..

Otherwise yes I do pay all the tax I have to. All $100,000 or so this year across Federal, State and Local. There aren’t really that many things I could claim anyway... I’ll take the 80c an hour WFH deduction, but otherwise work pays for everything.

(Stamp duty is a bitch).

Some of us actually do the right thing. And we pay more for it because of people who decide the value of a dollar is worth more than the value of acting ethically.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 03:14:27 AM by marty998 »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2976 on: July 10, 2020, 03:17:42 AM »
I didn't say "cheat", I said "minimise." Most of us follow the letter of taxation law, not the spirit. That's why Australia has 6,000 pages of income tax legislation - to make sure the letters are as comprehensive as possible.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2977 on: July 10, 2020, 03:29:56 AM »
Well... you said dodgy. That’s not minimising, that’s cheating.

Like how someone here has proudly professed to claiming their sportscar as a business tax deduction even though they spend most of their time driving it for fun on weekends...

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2978 on: July 10, 2020, 07:00:17 AM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

When I went to the wine bar, it was completely permissible. Bars had reopened. The lockdown had ended. I am no longer going to any bars or cafes, because they're all closed. If I go on a date now it's a "walking date" (which is permissible, and has negligible chance of infection). If I get to know the other person well enough we might go to my place or her place but that is also permitted too for romantic partners.

Anyway, even putting all that aside, no, it's wrong to say, as another person did in this thread:

Quote
The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did,

Shit no, I don't give a fuck if other people went to wine bars and if that's how the virus spread.

But that's not how it spread. It spread because of quarantine hotel workers having sex with patients. Because of massive extended family get-togethers after a religious holiday. Because of cramped living quarters. In fact the genomic sequencing nidicates that a huge proportion of our NW cluster might have come from one super spreader.

You can't say that me deciding that socialising in a wine bar is okay (in fact, it was lawful) is the same as someone at a quarantine hotel deciding not to take PPE measures as part of his work (unlawful), or deciding to have a huge family get-together (unlawful). Even putting aside the "legality" of it, they're just very different types of risks. It's like the difference between driving fast on an empty country road and driving fast through a pedestrian zone.

Or as Homer Simpson said best, "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." Don't conflate my subjective indifference with the objective seriousness of my conduct.

It’s spread by other people, guys. Not Bloop.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2979 on: July 10, 2020, 07:18:21 AM »
WTF does following the "spirit" of taxation laws even mean?

Phenix

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2980 on: July 10, 2020, 07:34:02 AM »
WTF does following the "spirit" of taxation laws even mean?

Millionaires who retired early taking ACA subsidies meant for low income earners who wouldn't be able to afford insurance otherwise comes to mind.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2981 on: July 10, 2020, 07:45:50 AM »
Those millionaires are low income though.  If that was the intent and "spirit" of the law, why don't the law makers just make that the actual letter of the law since they wrote it?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2982 on: July 10, 2020, 08:22:32 AM »
Alternately: the loopholes in the law benefit someone, and are designed to benefit someone, so that the someone will vote for them.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2983 on: July 10, 2020, 08:39:55 AM »
I'd like another week of data that isn't polluted by a holiday weekend in order to confirm, but it really looks likes US deaths are on the rise again, after falling/leveling out for about 2.5 months.


bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2984 on: July 10, 2020, 09:40:44 AM »
Those millionaires are low income though.  If that was the intent and "spirit" of the law, why don't the law makers just make that the actual letter of the law since they wrote it?

I think it's fair to say that taking ACA subsidies because you retired early and are manipulating your is violating the "spirit of the law." It certainly wouldn't stop me from doing it, since I find the system in place to be utterly ridiculous. Why on earth have we tied health insurance to employment in this country?


Why?  Because in WW2 there was a labor shortage, and in order to keep people from being paid higher wages, the federal government instituted a wage cap.  Businesses then had to find a different way to incentivize and attract workers, so additional compensation forms were born.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2985 on: July 10, 2020, 10:02:21 AM »
Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

vispetto19539

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2986 on: July 10, 2020, 10:36:18 AM »
Anecdotally, the town I live in (which is unusually dependent on tourism) is in total economic collapse. I'd say 75% of the service industry is out of work. Most businesses are closed. Construction is already grinding to a halt, as is school.

If this is the situation across the entire US, it's great depression level collapse we're talking about if it continues for more than a few weeks.

I'll put this question out there: are we risking a result that would be *worse* than uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus if we completely collapse our economy?

I feel like it would make more sense to tell all vulnerable groups to isolate themselves (with plenty of support to deliver food/medicine/etc) and let the virus otherwise run rampant through the healthier/younger population until there's some herd immunity in place. Yes, people would die. But I think fewer than we'd get in a depression.

Maybe I'm crazy.

-W

That's pretty much what the UK has decided to do. It makes sense only if you're confident you know everything you need to know about this virus. I don't see how they can be....
That definitely makes sense. Another way to attack the Covid19 problem is to fund the bio tech industry. Funding should come off of the backs of the Big Tech industry which has profited from the pandemic immeasurably. This would be counterintuitive to these high flying companies. So many of these medium bio Tech's are triple threats with testing , therapeutics and vaccines in their pipelines. Feeling safe from the virus is # 1 concern, this won't happen until we pour all resources into this project.

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk


frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2987 on: July 10, 2020, 11:16:53 AM »
Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

Common sense?

Clearly doesn't work as people in this thread are already having differing opinions about the spirit of the law.  It would be nice to actually have something to base it on rather than however you choose to interpret it.  What if instead of living in the USA with their backasswards healthcare and health insurance policies I lived in a civilized country with socialized health care?  Would it be wrong of me to retire at age 35 and suck at the teet of the government for my health care, even though I'm perfectly able bodied to continue working and contributing to the system via a massive tax bill? What about age 50? At what age does it become acceptable to stop gainful employment (and thus paying large amounts of taxes) and start leeching healthcare from the government?  Are those situations comparable to me taking advantage of ACA subsidies even though I have assets? 

What about my coworker that earns the same as me, but pays an infinitely higher tax rate because I chose to max my 401k, IRA, spouse's IRA, and HSA so I have no tax bill?  Am I bastardizing the system and going against the spirit of the law by taking it to the extreme and legally minimizing my tax bill?  This was an actual conversation I've had with coworkers who think it's completely unfair that I was able to squirrel away $35k in tax advantaged accounts and they paid taxes out the ass because they were "unable" to save as much me. 

Also reminiscent of some people I know who got their medical marijuana cards, to legally grow and possess medical marijuana in my state, on the basis of "chronic pain" because the "spirit of the law" was intended to help cancer patients who truly need it, and not some bum with faux "chronic pain".  The letter of the law just states you have to have a medical dr sign off that you need the card for one of a bunch of listed reasons, but obviously things just got messed up when putting the law down on paper that now allows this non-cancerous hippy to grow weed totally against the intended spirit of the law.

So is there really some "spirit" of the ACA subsidy law where they didn't intend anyone with sufficient assets to have access to subsidized health care?  I'm not convinced it's immoral or against the spirit of the law. 

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2988 on: July 10, 2020, 11:18:55 AM »
Anecdotally, the town I live in (which is unusually dependent on tourism) is in total economic collapse. I'd say 75% of the service industry is out of work. Most businesses are closed. Construction is already grinding to a halt, as is school.

If this is the situation across the entire US, it's great depression level collapse we're talking about if it continues for more than a few weeks.



I think it easily would have been headed that way had we locked down longer.  It's become increasingly clear that's not a realistic or feasible solution. 

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2989 on: July 10, 2020, 12:10:11 PM »
Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

Common sense?

Clearly doesn't work as people in this thread are already having differing opinions about the spirit of the law.  It would be nice to actually have something to base it on rather than however you choose to interpret it.  What if instead of living in the USA with their backasswards healthcare and health insurance policies I lived in a civilized country with socialized health care?  Would it be wrong of me to retire at age 35 and suck at the teet of the government for my health care, even though I'm perfectly able bodied to continue working and contributing to the system via a massive tax bill? What about age 50? At what age does it become acceptable to stop gainful employment (and thus paying large amounts of taxes) and start leeching healthcare from the government?  Are those situations comparable to me taking advantage of ACA subsidies even though I have assets? 


I don't know how it is in USA but in my civilized country with socialized health care, every law has a  background document were you can read about the thoughts behind the legislation.

Actually, the discussion about future contributions is coming up here from people that think you have an obligation to continue contributing to the tax revenues needed to fund everything. The argument from those that plan to FIRE is that they continue contributing through sales taxes that are up to 25 % on some goods and services. You will also have to pay capital taxes. Another argument is that you probably also will need less of the health care services due to a less stressful lifestyle and an ability to hopefully make better choices.

I am curious about what percentage of income you consider to be a massive tax bill? I wonder if you don't in the end pay more when you add to your taxes healthcare cost and day care costs for example.

I am considered as a high earner in my country and paid tax of 50 % for a part of my income in 2017. My total tax percentage (not included sales tax) for that year was 31,8 %. During the 2018 and 2019 I only worked part of the year so I ended up under the state tax limit and my total percentage was 21,2 and 25,5%. So when I hear Swedes rant about their high taxes I always wonder if they have looked at the bottom line or just assumed things.
 

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2990 on: July 10, 2020, 12:31:34 PM »
Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

Yes, you can read the legislative history of any law. The transcripts of the hearings held, documents legislators wrote about the bill as it was being considered, and there are many more resources if you want to pursue, and are available in different ways depending on the law, and the government that passed them.

Courts sometimes consider legislative history when a law is being litigated, though it is less authoritative then the text itself. And of course how to interpret the plain text itself is a whole other can of worms. In other words, it would be hard to find any one objective answer to what the spirit of every law is. But there are plenty of resources if you wish to learn and come to your own conclusion.

facepalm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2991 on: July 10, 2020, 12:44:20 PM »

What about my coworker that earns the same as me, but pays an infinitely higher tax rate because I chose to max my 401k, IRA, spouse's IRA, and HSA so I have no tax bill?  Am I bastardizing the system and going against the spirit of the law by taking it to the extreme and legally minimizing my tax bill?  This was an actual conversation I've had with coworkers who think it's completely unfair that I was able to squirrel away $35k in tax advantaged accounts and they paid taxes out the ass because they were "unable" to save as much me. 




No, you are not "bastardizing the system" or "taking it to the extreme." While your income is not taxed now because you are shuttling it to a tax advantaged account, it will be taxed when you begin to withdraw from your tax-advantaged account(s).

Your co-workers have that same option.


mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2992 on: July 10, 2020, 01:11:11 PM »
Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

Common sense?

This. The ACA was clearly not written to help millionaires who want to retire after 15 or 20 years of labor. If it does, that’s great. Take advantage of it. But we all know what we’re doing.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2993 on: July 10, 2020, 01:47:10 PM »

What about my coworker that earns the same as me, but pays an infinitely higher tax rate because I chose to max my 401k, IRA, spouse's IRA, and HSA so I have no tax bill?  Am I bastardizing the system and going against the spirit of the law by taking it to the extreme and legally minimizing my tax bill?  This was an actual conversation I've had with coworkers who think it's completely unfair that I was able to squirrel away $35k in tax advantaged accounts and they paid taxes out the ass because they were "unable" to save as much me. 


No, you are not "bastardizing the system" or "taking it to the extreme." While your income is not taxed now because you are shuttling it to a tax advantaged account, it will be taxed when you begin to withdraw from your tax-advantaged account(s).

Your co-workers have that same option.

Right, but I definitely don't intend on ever paying taxes on that income.  Shove it in tax advantaged accounts when I earn it to avoid taxes, and pull it out slow enough to stay under the threshold for paying taxes in the future.   Did the legislators intend for me to do that? What exactly is the "spirit" of the various IRS laws that allow this action, and am I violating it? The only thing clear to me is that opinions differ wildly.

Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

Common sense?

This. The ACA was clearly not written to help millionaires who want to retire after 15 or 20 years of labor. If it does, that’s great. Take advantage of it. But we all know what we’re doing.

Can you actually provide anything to backup your claim though?  If it's clear then you should be able to direct me to some type of document that unambiguously explains why there is no means testing.  Why did they limit the eligibility strictly to income and completely ignore assets?  Surely it's not an oversight and there are reasons.  I genuinely don't know, and I haven't read through the text of the actual law, let alone all the supporting documentation like hearing transcripts, debates, etc related to the laws.  But I also suspect that people telling me what the true spirit of the law is also haven't read through all of that, so I'm not sure exactly how they are forming their opinion. 


LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2994 on: July 10, 2020, 01:47:27 PM »
Is there some place I can read about the intent and/or spirit of the various laws and how they differ from the actual legislation, without anyone here giving me their own personal interpretation?

Common sense?

Clearly doesn't work as people in this thread are already having differing opinions about the spirit of the law.  It would be nice to actually have something to base it on rather than however you choose to interpret it.  What if instead of living in the USA with their backasswards healthcare and health insurance policies I lived in a civilized country with socialized health care?  Would it be wrong of me to retire at age 35 and suck at the teet of the government for my health care, even though I'm perfectly able bodied to continue working and contributing to the system via a massive tax bill? What about age 50? At what age does it become acceptable to stop gainful employment (and thus paying large amounts of taxes) and start leeching healthcare from the government?  Are those situations comparable to me taking advantage of ACA subsidies even though I have assets? 

What about my coworker that earns the same as me, but pays an infinitely higher tax rate because I chose to max my 401k, IRA, spouse's IRA, and HSA so I have no tax bill?  Am I bastardizing the system and going against the spirit of the law by taking it to the extreme and legally minimizing my tax bill?  This was an actual conversation I've had with coworkers who think it's completely unfair that I was able to squirrel away $35k in tax advantaged accounts and they paid taxes out the ass because they were "unable" to save as much me. 

Also reminiscent of some people I know who got their medical marijuana cards, to legally grow and possess medical marijuana in my state, on the basis of "chronic pain" because the "spirit of the law" was intended to help cancer patients who truly need it, and not some bum with faux "chronic pain".  The letter of the law just states you have to have a medical dr sign off that you need the card for one of a bunch of listed reasons, but obviously things just got messed up when putting the law down on paper that now allows this non-cancerous hippy to grow weed totally against the intended spirit of the law.

So is there really some "spirit" of the ACA subsidy law where they didn't intend anyone with sufficient assets to have access to subsidized health care?  I'm not convinced it's immoral or against the spirit of the law.

This is the common view regarding our tax system:

Over and over again courts have said that there is nothing sinister in so arranging one's affairs as to keep taxes as low as possible. Everybody does so, rich or poor; and all do right, for nobody owes any public duty to pay more than the law demands: taxes are enforced exactions, not voluntary contributions. To demand more in the name of morals is mere cant.  (Judge Learned Hand)

Now, ACA is different because you are getting subsidies not paying taxes, but it is a tax based system.  Other factors to consider:

1.  Our health insurance system is totally messed up and we are forced to pay far higher prices for things like drugs, medical devices, etc. than people in other developed countries (this is in part purposeful, the system is rigged so that this is required so that these companies can profit).  So if you are young and healthy and get some partially subsidized ACA insurance, it's possible you are just paying something that actually reasonably reflects what healthcare would cost in a system that wasn't purposefully rigged to screw over consumers for corporate profit. 

2.  It would of course not be unethical to retire early in a country with socialized medicine.  However, you would likely need to pay far higher taxes on your road to retirement, so I expect your early retirement date would need to be delayed.

In the USA some people get to eat their cake and have it too by paying really low taxes during working years and accumulating a lot and then retiring and taking advantage of the ACA.  From a standpoint of crafting good public policy, this is a flaw and should be fixed.  From a standpoint of arranging your personal affairs, it is logical and not immoral and anyone designing public policy needs to be aware that of course people will structure their life to take maximum advantage of the system.  As long as there is no fraud, etc. there is no legal problem.

If you do this and feel vaguely uncomfortable with yourself, that's your conscience speaking.  You should listen.  However, the solution may not be "randomly continue working a job you hate in order to account for flaws in the system."  The solution could be "use some of your early retirement time to give back to your community, e.g., through volunteering, so that you can justify your existence on earth."  (Probably a good thing to do anyways.)

If you can look at your life overall and feel like you've justified your existence through your works for others, then you should feel free to cheerfully take advantage of every possible (legal, of course) loophole that you are creative enough to structure your affairs to satisfy. 

Just my two cents on all this. 
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 02:02:27 PM by LWYRUP »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2995 on: July 10, 2020, 02:32:10 PM »
Can you actually provide anything to backup your claim though?  If it's clear then you should be able to direct me to some type of document that unambiguously explains why there is no means testing.  Why did they limit the eligibility strictly to income and completely ignore assets?  Surely it's not an oversight and there are reasons.  I genuinely don't know, and I haven't read through the text of the actual law, let alone all the supporting documentation like hearing transcripts, debates, etc related to the laws.  But I also suspect that people telling me what the true spirit of the law is also haven't read through all of that, so I'm not sure exactly how they are forming their opinion.

Pretty sure the answer to your bolded question above is that the intent of the law was to provide health insurance to as many people as possible. That's why expanded Medicaid did away with asset tests. Pre-ACA, many genuinely needy people with extremely low incomes were prohibited from accessing Medicaid, because they couldn't meet their states' ridiculously low asset tests. Other than homeless people, almost no one can qualify for Medicaid if they have to prove <$1K (for example) in total assets. Every normal person, even the working poor, has at least $1K, somewhere (car, furniture, clothes, checking, savings, etc.) An unemployed person living in a house that's worth $80K, with a $75K mortgage, technically wouldn't qualify for medical benefits under the old system, even though there's no practical way she could get the $5K in equity out of her house in order to be able to pay cash for medical bills. The ACA simplified things by only looking at income, thus getting more people insured than under the old system, which was the intent, I think.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2996 on: July 10, 2020, 02:32:53 PM »
Can you actually provide anything to backup your claim though?  If it's clear then you should be able to direct me to some type of document that unambiguously explains why there is no means testing.  Why did they limit the eligibility strictly to income and completely ignore assets?  Surely it's not an oversight and there are reasons.  I genuinely don't know, and I haven't read through the text of the actual law, let alone all the supporting documentation like hearing transcripts, debates, etc related to the laws.  But I also suspect that people telling me what the true spirit of the law is also haven't read through all of that, so I'm not sure exactly how they are forming their opinion.

For what it's worth, my first job out of college was to read the ACA as well as Federal regulation and guidance to see how it applied to the company that hired me. I wouldn't consider myself an expert but I'm more familiar with the law than most people you will run across.

The bill itself is very long and very dry. It's close to 1,000 pages, and it endlessly references other bills and laws that it amends or modifies. As you can imagine, crafting a bill is a monstrously complicated process that takes input from hundreds or even thousands of people. There's the President, his HHS secretary, 535 members of congress, academics, and industry experts etc. The question of why or why not, for any specific facet of the bill, is likely a question that would take thousands of hours to untangle.

Thus, the appeal to common sense. To get to "common sense", you can look at a few things. President Obama's rhetoric, obviously. Here's one example of him talking about it. I specifically picked something that wasn't a stump speech, because no politician stumps on helping millionaires. I picked an example of him talking about the bill in a cold and clinical manner.

https://youtu.be/HsW0l139JD0

He talks about not getting dropped from coverage, coverage being less expensive (presumably by way of the Medical Loss Ratio rebates) and extending coverage to poor or self-employed people with preEx who have to seek coverage through the marketplace. You can cobble together reasons why a rich, early retiree might fit into some of that, but I don't believe that was the intent.

Then there's the matter of funding. The bill included the individual mandate to incentivize people to buy into the system. One problem with insurance as an approach to healthcare is that there's a huge anti selection issue. Almost everyone will incur large medical costs at some point in their lives, so if you effectively do away with underwriting (no denial for preEx and nationwide open enrollment periods) then you open yourself up to an underfunded system unless you prod people into participating. The individual mandate is gone now, but that used to be one way to get people in the system. Another way that people can jeopardize funding is by say, working only until 40, taking 18 years or so of tax breaks on $3.5K a year in HDHP HSA contributions (while paying low premiums because you're healthy and rich enough to pay a high deductible), then retiring, doing some SEPP magic, having low reported income, and riding out subsidies for 25 years until Medicare.

That is probably pretty rare in the country at large, but common on these forums. So maybe it didn't merit getting addressed vs. all the other facets that had to go into the 1,000 page bill.

Lastly, we can think about the will of the voters. Obama voters rated healthcare either #1, or #2 behind "the economy". Obama won a large victory and brought the House and Senate with him. In 2010, they were charged with delivering on the issue that they were elected on, and that became Obama's signature legislation. How concerned do you think the people who put Obama and Congress in those seats were about healthcare for millionaire early retirees?

The confluence of the above paragraphs leads me to the common sense conclusion that the intent of the ACA was not to help artificially low income millionaires take premium subsidies. Let me state that I do not care if you or anyone on this forum does that. But I don't think that was the intent of the legislation. The loophole could be closed, but it's probably not worth expending finite political capital to do so.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2997 on: July 10, 2020, 02:45:27 PM »
I'd like another week of data that isn't polluted by a holiday weekend in order to confirm, but it really looks likes US deaths are on the rise again, after falling/leveling out for about 2.5 months.

From mid-March, basically until early June, we barely left our house, except to get necessities and then, only one of us went out at a time. Many US states have recently reopened. It's summer, so more people are out and about. Doesn't seem surprising, at all, that deaths would be going up. Seems like it would be more odd if deaths weren't going up.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2998 on: July 10, 2020, 02:54:52 PM »
I'd like another week of data that isn't polluted by a holiday weekend in order to confirm, but it really looks likes US deaths are on the rise again, after falling/leveling out for about 2.5 months.

From mid-March, basically until early June, we barely left our house, except to get necessities and then, only one of us went out at a time. Many US states have recently reopened. It's summer, so more people are out and about. Doesn't seem surprising, at all, that deaths would be going up. Seems like it would be more odd if deaths weren't going up.

Yeah. Cases have been on the rise for weeks now without a commensurate increase in deaths. So I kind of knew that this was coming. Just sad to see it actually start to materialize.

There was a hope that warm weather, better treatments and a younger population would lower the case fatality rate, and it has. But not enough to stop total deaths from ticking back up. Just really sucks.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2999 on: July 10, 2020, 05:41:49 PM »
Guys, are the governments in Florida and Texas going to take the pandemic seriously?    Cases are really growing.    Maybe if a couple of Red states did the right thing for their citizens some others would follow and you all could restore some semblance of control...

I see that Greg Abbott is threatening to lock down Texas again, but he's really taking his time.    The situation is escalating very rapidly right now.

Florida is even worse.   Ron DeSantis seems to be completely out of touch...