My wife and I are still adhering to our own personal lockdown, but I'd estimate that 75% of the people we know and live near are not. Good for them. I'm no longer pro-lockdown. I just think it's funny how we've basically come full circle and ended up where Sweden is. That said I think we've saved lives by locking down. I don't think the true economic impact of that lockdown is going to be felt until Q4 of 2020 or Q1 of 2021. There's talk about it in the news over here, as I'm sure there is everywhere, but only when the government cease propping up the economy will we feel it.
The thing is there is no way to really tell from how people behave outside. I agree that I'm seeing lots of gatherings outdoors that are not witihin the rules (i.e. people who obviously don't live together sitting closer than 2m). Honestly if they are going to do it I would much much rather they do it outdoors than indoors.
I am often outdoors with the kids - so we will be adding to the impression that "there are a lot of people out" (we live in a very busy part of London with lots of high rise flats, meaning the green space is well used under normal circumstances, let alone when gyms, leisure centres, pools, soft play centres, and other people's houses are out of bounds). Since the lockdown was eased sometimes if they see their friends in the park we now let the kids play, rather than whisking them away (they are both back in school with those kids this week anyway). Still none of us have been in somebody else's house for 10 weeks. I've been in the office twice and saw nobody either time. Haven't got on public transport, or been in a shop.
My interactions where I physically speak to somebody not in my household for more than 5s/closer than 2m or touch something they have touched are still down to probably about 1% of what they would normally be. Yet normally you wouldn't see me, because I'd be in my office, on the bus, buying a sandwich in a sandwich shop, picking up some bits in the supermarket: yet now you will see me often, because I am often giving the kids a run-around in the local park, given they cannot do this at school/nursery any more (or at least, not until recently, and even now only 2 days a week).
I am NOT an expert, so I have no idea whether what we are doing is enough. But I really worry about this narrative that "everybody is ignoring the lock-down" because that will just encourage people to ignore it more (why bother when nobody else is?) - when actually what I have seen until recently is people doing their best under difficult circumstances. If anything is going to kill compliance and drive a second wave it will be cynicism about the whole exercise. Unfortunately we in the UK are very good at cynicism.
The real test will be autumn, when we can no longer do this stuff outdoors, people are tempted to break the rules at home instead, and Covid is mixed in with all the normal seasonal colds and flus. That's my big worry, much more so than the summer. I really hope against all odds our government can get their track and trace up and running properly by then (which will rely on government not burning whatever last bit of credibility and goodwill they still have from the rest of us), and that our brilliant medics around the world can continue to work on better treatments to get sick people home again safe (or that immunity turns out to be stronger and more widespread than currently seems to be the case), or we are really toast come autumn/winter.