Thoughts?
https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
My thoughts - I agree with pretty much a blend of Sunetra, Ferguson and Giesecke:
1) Only deaths are useful to track - the tested case numbers are not really useful (estimated case numbers are).
2) The virus spread at least 1 month earlier than first thought (by then it was already spread all around even before 'lockdowns')
3) Scaring people into lockdown mentality did much more than gov't lockdown - people were already isolating and distancing. This is/was good propaganda.
4) Even with outliers like Belgium, Italy, NYC, and New Zealand, the outbreaks have followed SIR models quite well, similar to any other coronavirus.
5) The models and data support both Ferguson (IFR of 0.8 to 1%) and Sunetra (IFR of 0.05 to 0.1%) Somewhere in between won't be known for another year once we know how many additional had it but fought it off with no antibodies made. Obviously IFR widely-varies based on the usual (co-morbidities, age, strain, etc.)
6) Lockdowns based on scaring people (Ferguson, modeling 250k deaths if no lockdown) is/was justified at the time.
7) Releasing lockdowns will still have a large % of people too scared to go out, but a larger % not, still with distancing and no large gatherings. This will help keep spread low.
8) Anyone see or read any published articles yet on studies for recovered people with no antibodies produced? Sunetra is assuming this would account for a very large portion of missed infections (no symptoms, recovered, no antibodies made) based on previous coronavirus immunity. But still this doesn't mean they can't get re-infected.
When I look at the death curves following SIR - yes there are large outliers - Belgium to New Zealand curves. Large groups clustered around USA, UK, Swedish curves, and another grouping around Germany, Denmark, Norway etc. Still - all roughly the same trends.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaCheck back in around mid August, then again after it sweeps through the southern hemisphere. Will we get the winter second wave back again?
GB