It's worthwhile to spend some time looking back a few pages in this thread (1-3 weeks past). A lot of the predictions about hospitalizations and death are wildly inaccurate. Cuomo and deBlasio just last week were saying New York City would run out of ventilators and hospital beds. Nothing can be further from the truth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-how-many-hospital-beds/New York is currently using about 18,000 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients. The estimated need at this point was 140,000. Only a fraction of ventilators are being used, and the trend is for MD's to not use ventilators at all as there is little (if any) evidence they are an effective treatment for COVID-19.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4Good data was released out of Germany this week, the iFR for the disease is 0.37%, which is about 10% of the initial WHO estimate of 3.8% earlier this year. No wonder the statistical models were so horribly inaccurate.
Mammograms, melanoma and pap smear screenings have halted and best case been delayed for months. How many people will die from these diseases that are very treatable (but if not caught early are likely to be fatal)?
Alcoholism and substance abuse treatments (which are effective) have been halted. How many people will die from these illnesses?
Poverty and economic decay are strongly associated with longevity. How many of the newly impoverished will have their lives cut short?
The notion that shutting down the economy is not going to cause thousands (or more) to die is bizarre. COVID-19 is truly only dangerous to a small subset of the population. Shutting down the economy indiscriminately is criminal and likely not Constitutional.
People have died regardless. People will die regardless. The idea that the infection can be reduced through social isolation is deeply misguided. "Flattening the curve" (I cringe every time I read this nonsense) will not change the total outcome. All that it will do is extend the situation which could have been resolved in a much shorter amount of time.
The virus will stop spreading once there is herd immunity. Until then there is no effective treatment, there is no effective cure. The consequences as a result of waiting for a vaccine (which is possible, but to date there has been no effective vaccine for any coronavirus) has caused the suffering of hundreds of millions (if not billions).
So yes, a very small percentage of humanity will die, to date that number is 0.0012%.
The hospitals are not overwhelmed. They were never at risk of being overwhelmed and they never will be overwhelmed. The only thing "flat curving" does is it theoretically had the potential to keep our health system functioning. We are likely at virus peak or close to it in many metropolitan areas, so there is no reason to continue shelter in place or lockdowns. Such behavior is foolishness, might as well start putting people in prison when they claim the Earth is round.
Regardless of what we do, regardless of what you do, herd immunity will be achieved whether you like it or not. Probably well before a vaccine is widely administered.