"Translating that to the US, we are looking at maybe 40-50k deaths. Still terrible but way less than what would be a catastrophic event."

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I hope you and the Imperial Study are right, Millionaire

*USA has 1000 total deaths as of today (75 deaths per day at this time), and assuming EVERYONE is 100% serious about social distancing beginning today, we will have about 15 days of additional exponential positive infection tests [the infections themselves have mostly already occurred, they just haven't been diagnosed or counted], with corresponding 15 days of additional exponential deaths. There will be a 6-9 day delay between diagnosis and death for the unlucky. This also assumes we don't overwhelm the medical system. Lots of assumptions here, I know. All these assumptions are conservative.

So infections are at 75K in USA today, will double 5 times before they decrease their rate of growth, and hopefully turn the corner after that. At exponential peak, we will have 2,400,000 infected.

This leads to 75 deaths per day doubling 5 times, or 4650 new deaths by end of April 10th, total of 5650 deaths by Good Friday. Add the 6-9 day delay from diagnosis till death and we will have 20050 deaths total in 3 weeks. Reverse it for an additional 20050 assuming no new infections from then on, and we will have 40100 deaths in 6 weeks.

The tighter the control of spread FROM TODAY ON, the closer the results will be to the math. The looser the control of spread, and that number will only be higher.