How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[OtherJen]

Best of luck to those in Sydney/NSW and NZ. Please stay safe.

Sydney isolated as COVID-19 clusters build; NZ tightens curbs in capital (Reuters)

SYDNEY, June 23 (Reuters) - Australia's largest city of Sydney re-introduced "soft touch" COVID-19 curbs on Wednesday to contain a widening outbreak of the highly infectious Delta variant, mandating masks in offices while neighbouring states closed their borders.

New Zealand raised the alert level in its capital of Wellington over exposure concerns after an Australian tourist tested positive for the virus upon returning to Sydney from a weekend visit to the neighbouring nation.

The latest virus cluster in Australia's most populous state of New South Wales (NSW) has swelled to more than 30 in a week, prompting New Zealand to halt quarantine-free travel.

On Wednesday, the state tightened curbs for a week on gatherings and movement in Sydney, but stopped short of a full lockdown, as fears grew that the latest cluster of the highly infectious Delta variant could drive a major outbreak.

[habanero]

I read an EU report on vaccines the other day - it was pre COVID but some of the numbers surprised me quite a bit. When they asked if you believe the MMR vaccine to be safe 94% I Denmark said yes, 79% in Sweden and only 65% in Belgium. The vaccination rate is higher in Belgium and Sweden but it shows big differences in attitude. Gonna be exiting to see where various countries plateau for COVID vaccination rate once doses are abundant.

Meanwhile, we (Norway) look to be heading for what they think is probably the world record as our CDC estimate 95% of adults will take the COVID vaccine. The highest rate is in age group 65-74 with 98%

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I still think it's ridiculous that we're going for an elimination rather than containment strategy here in Australia. But Sydney does the lockdowns much better than Melbourne: they're geographically targeted; residents are asked to self-assess for various factors rather than having draconian rules; and it's acknowledged that lockdown is an onerous and unhappy state of affairs, unlike here in Victoria where it's almost seen as a good thing by privileged office workers who are out of touch with the real pain inflicted by lockdowns. Best of luck to the NSW residents affected by lockdown. Let's hope it ends soon and we can finally get back to business as usual.

[marty998]

I still think it's ridiculous that we're going for an elimination rather than containment strategy here in Australia. But Sydney does the lockdowns much better than Melbourne: they're geographically targeted; residents are asked to self-assess for various factors rather than having draconian rules; and it's acknowledged that lockdown is an onerous and unhappy state of affairs, unlike here in Victoria where it's almost seen as a good thing by privileged office workers who are out of touch with the real pain inflicted by lockdowns. Best of luck to the NSW residents affected by lockdown. Let's hope it ends soon and we can finally get back to business as usual.

Speaking as someone who has been "locked down", I'll agree the restrictions are less than that of Victoriastan but they're not tough enough to actually do anything. The virus has already gotten out well beyond the boundaries of the locked down areas.

I do not live in one of the proscribed LGAs, but I work in the CBD so am caught in the net. My next door neighbours are free as the birds. Honestly at this point I would have preferred a snap 1 week full lockdown of the Sydney Metro area. Victoria got out of their recent one pretty quickly, but I feel like we are going to bumble along with 20-30 cases a day for the foreseeable future now in this state of semi-freedom.

We shall see.

[middo]

I still think it's ridiculous that we're going for an elimination rather than containment strategy here in Australia. But Sydney does the lockdowns much better than Melbourne: they're geographically targeted; residents are asked to self-assess for various factors rather than having draconian rules; and it's acknowledged that lockdown is an onerous and unhappy state of affairs, unlike here in Victoria where it's almost seen as a good thing by privileged office workers who are out of touch with the real pain inflicted by lockdowns. Best of luck to the NSW residents affected by lockdown. Let's hope it ends soon and we can finally get back to business as usual.

That is one viewpoint that many others may not agree with, including the CHO's of most states, and the AMA.  When we have less than 5% of our population vaccinated, an outbreak would still be catastrophic to many families.  If only our Federal Government had not made such a mess of the vaccine roll out.  We could have had enough Pfizer for everyone in Australia by now if they acted in July rather than bickered over a few cents per jab.

I sincerely hope NSW gets on top of this as soon as possible.  I am watching the exponential growth in cases and am concerned their measures are not enough yet.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

The CHO's and AMA cannot give an objective viewpoint because they are tasked with maximising public health at any cost, here in Australia. They will always take an overly conservative, protective approach: that is the general attitude in Australia, for better or worse. Obviously here in Australia the climate is one of "save all lives at all costs" but there are plenty of jurisdictions, including those in Europe which are hardly capitalistic havens, with a more hands off approach.

[middo]

The CHO's and AMA cannot give an objective viewpoint because they are tasked with maximising public health at any cost, here in Australia. They will always take an overly conservative, protective approach: that is the general attitude in Australia, for better or worse. Obviously here in Australia the climate is one of "save all lives at all costs" but there are plenty of jurisdictions, including those in Europe which are hardly capitalistic havens, with a more hands off approach.

And Australia's economy by any measure you choose has done better than almost any other country in the world since the start of 2020.

So what is your point?  Open up, get cases and stuff our economy before enough of us are vaccinated?

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

False dichotomy. For one thing, Victoria's economy has struggled compared to other states because of our approach to extended lockdowns (contra Sydney's short, targeted approach). Secondly, Australia's economy has been propped up by a level of stimulus and bandaid spending that per capita far surpasses that in the US and UK. Thirdly, there are ways of stopping the spread of covid that aren't as onerous as what Melbourne has required. For example:

- Locking down by geographical clusters rather than the entire state at a time (the NSW approach, as opposed to the Victorian approach)

- Better contact tracing that coerces/forces the known infected into giving up phone records and location data rather than relying on goodwill;

- Treating differently the high risk individuals (those in large families living under one roof, those in high-risk workforces) rather than treating all people the same.

[middo]

False dichotomy. For one thing, Victoria's economy has struggled compared to other states because of our approach to extended lockdowns (contra Sydney's short, targeted approach).

Except Victoria has the same unemployment rate as NSW.  So this is not necessarily true.

source: https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR/LFR_UnemploymentRate

Secondly, Australia's economy has been propped up by a level of stimulus and bandaid spending that per capita far surpasses that in the US and UK.

Again false.  Australia has spent about what UK has spent on stimulus by GDP, and less than the US.  See here:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/

Thirdly, there are ways of stopping the spread of covid that aren't as onerous as what Melbourne has required. For example:

- Locking down by geographical clusters rather than the entire state at a time (the NSW approach, as opposed to the Victorian approach)

- Better contact tracing that coerces/forces the known infected into giving up phone records and location data rather than relying on goodwill;

- Treating differently the high risk individuals (those in large families living under one roof, those in high-risk workforces) rather than treating all people the same.

Geographic lockdowns have been tried and only once have they succeeded, in the Northern Beaches outbreak, on what is known as "the insular peninsular".  They can work when there is limited movement of people into and out of the geographic area.  The problem is our large cities are not a series of villages, but interconnected cities.

Coercing people to give up their phone records will just get people to delete their phone data as soon as they are concerned.  A very short sighted idea. 

As for treating everyone differently, the issue is who makes the decisions, in what time period.  The decisions need to be made quickly, and enforceable and clear.  Vague statements like "if you have 3 in your house you can go out, but if you have 4 or more you can't" isn't going to work. 

Most of your opposition to the lockdowns in Victoria have been philosophical (libertarian) rather than informed by the evidence.  Lockdowns are still being used because fundamentally they work better than other processes.  Elimination in Australia has been very good for our economy.  Our stimulus has been at similar levels to other countries.  This just doesn't fit your belief system.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I can't read the linked article, but I would question the methodology of the article when you consider that the U.S. $2.5 trillion dollar stimulus package has only recently passed, is yet to properly kick in, and involves over $500 million that is directed to what I would call research and development / vaccine prep (it's not direct stimulus). Whereas Australia's stimulus has already been paid, lasted a full year, and was extremely generous. It's going to come at a huge cost to future tax payers.

As for your other claim, note that I never said an economy was measured solely by unemployment rate (especially since those on the JobKeeper subsidy aren't counted), nor by 'economic growth' (since that can simply be funded by stimulus).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-28/business-impact-victoria-lockdown-casual-workers-covid/100171916

This article talks about the impact of the rolling lockdowns on the economy. Even if that is fully absorbed by additional stimulus measures, that money has to come from somewhere: in this case, the pockets of net tax payers like you and me.

Coercing people to give up their phone records will just get people to delete their phone data as soon as they are concerned.  A very short sighted idea. 

As for treating everyone differently, the issue is who makes the decisions, in what time period.  The decisions need to be made quickly, and enforceable and clear.  Vague statements like "if you have 3 in your house you can go out, but if you have 4 or more you can't" isn't going to work. 

This is not true. There is no way to 'delete your phone data'. It is readily accessible by the authorities from the telecommunications providers, who know where the phone has been and who it has been contacted. It is, in fact, how contact tracing now works. It is not contingent on someone keeping stuff locally on his or her phone.

I don't understand a system which doesn't "coerce" i.e. put any pressure on known infected - but puts heavy, punitive pressure on those who are not actually infected. Why punish the innocent by locking them down, and then let the guilty get away scot-free?

Vague statements like "if you have 3 in your house you can go out, but if you have 4 or more you can't" isn't going to work. 

Even if I accept this as true, why is it okay to make vague statements like "If you are an essential services worker [see vague, prescribed list here] you can go to work but otherwise stay home", or "If you need to give your parents medical care it's ok to see them but otherwise stay home"?

[marty998]

Well that escalated quickly.

Sydney, Blue Mountains, Wollongong locked down until July 9.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

Fortunately for NSW residents there is no curfew and there has been no geographical limitation set on the 'exercise' permitted function. One of the things I missed during the Victorian lockdown was being able to go on fun drives to the twisty roads, get fresh air at night, and do day trips up to the mountains to go skiing (it is lovely driving in the snow, too). Looks like Sydneysiders can still do that, as long as they go solo or within their family groups. Fingers crossed the social and economic effects of this 2 week lockdown aren't too grave and sensible decisions continue to be made.

[middo]

So your complaint is ultimately that you were inconvenienced. 

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

My complaint is that the lockdowns and the 'we're all in this together' messaging send illogical and arbitrary messages to the community. And that Australians (particularly Victorians) are far too quick to accept a strange combination of:

- impingement upon the freedoms of low risk folk; and

- extremely lax standards (see e.g. your post above, about wanting to treat with kiddie gloves known infected who refuse to cooperate with contact tracers) for high risk folk.

[Kyle Schuant]

So your complaint is ultimately that you were inconvenienced. 

There are 340,000 more people on the dole now than February 2020, there have been massive rises in domestic violence and mental health presentations to medical services, and in the first three months of this year there were some 2,000 more deaths than past years - mostly cancer and dementia. And we have people facing time in prison for Facebook posts.

I cannot speak for Bloop, but this rises above what I would consider an "inconvenience."

[middo]

So your complaint is ultimately that you were inconvenienced. 

There are 340,000 more people on the dole now than February 2020, there have been massive rises in domestic violence and mental health presentations to medical services, and in the first three months of this year there were some 2,000 more deaths than past years - mostly cancer and dementia. And we have people facing time in prison for Facebook posts.

I cannot speak for Bloop, but this rises above what I would consider an "inconvenience."

Some fairly big claims without any backing up there.  While they may be true, they may also not be true...

And for Bloop, Sydney has decided to lock down all of greater Sydney anyway, for two weeks of school holidays.

[marty998]

So your complaint is ultimately that you were inconvenienced. 

There are 340,000 more people on the dole now than February 2020, there have been massive rises in domestic violence and mental health presentations to medical services, and in the first three months of this year there were some 2,000 more deaths than past years - mostly cancer and dementia. And we have people facing time in prison for Facebook posts.

I cannot speak for Bloop, but this rises above what I would consider an "inconvenience."

Well... a lot more people were eligible for it (which is what happens when casual jobs are stood down), but there's an element of a few structuring their affairs in order to get it + the supplement up to the end of March.

Dementia can't be cured anyway, drug treatments can slow but not stop the progress of it, and we know that prevalence is increasing in the community as the population ages. So given no one has been stopped from getting medication, and there are simply more old people around this year as compared to last year I'm gonna expect numbers to go up.

Cancer is a different story, but health procedures are still going ahead. Both of my parents have had elective surgeries in the past year (life changing for them, but the system classifies it as elective). Hospitals don't turn away people with life threatening conditions.... we'd know about it by now, the papers would be screaming blue murder.

As for DV.... I typed up a whole big spiel but have thought better about posting it. Sometimes it's best not to go there - I have no lived experience of it, and personally I can't understand the concept of brutalising an intimate partner. It just doesn't make any sense to this logical brain, notwithstanding I know it happens and how devastating it is.

FWIW my money is on the fact there is much more awareness of it that the level of under-reporting is starting to fall.

[StashingAway]

Dementia can't be cured anyway, drug treatments can slow but not stop the progress of it, and we know that prevalence is increasing in the community as the population ages.

Socialization is highly correlated to reducing the risk of dementia. Rates of dementia will rise with long term isolation measures.

[middo]

Dementia can't be cured anyway, drug treatments can slow but not stop the progress of it, and we know that prevalence is increasing in the community as the population ages.

Socialization is highly correlated to reducing the risk of dementia. Rates of dementia will rise with long term isolation measures.

Something that is ignored is that whether a lockdown is enforced, or the virus is allowed to run through the community, most people will reduce their socialization significantly anyway.

[habanero]

Well if you're managing to keep Delta in its box you must be doing a lot of things right - that's good to hear that it's possible!

Its been around in Denmark for quite some time without causing much drama and total cases are going down, not  up. And the danes do a fuckton of testing so that there are lots of undetected cases seems very unlikely (on average, every person in Denmark has been tested more than 11 times during the pandemic).

[marty998]

11! I’ve only had the pleasure of the cotton bud shoved into my brain once haha.

But then again, I haven’t had reason to go and get tested, so different circumstances.

[habanero]

But then again, I haven’t had reason to go and get tested, so different circumstances.

Im not into the details but afaik a part of the danish strategy is massive testing to catch stuff early and try and keep stuff as normal as possible. One dude I spoke to said he got tested twice weekly at work - for no apparant reason.

[StashingAway]

Dementia can't be cured anyway, drug treatments can slow but not stop the progress of it, and we know that prevalence is increasing in the community as the population ages.

Socialization is highly correlated to reducing the risk of dementia. Rates of dementia will rise with long term isolation measures.

Something that is ignored is that whether a lockdown is enforced, or the virus is allowed to run through the community, most people will reduce their socialization significantly anyway.

The person I responded to seemed to think that dementia wasn't related to the new social norms when it is likely significantly affected by them (time will give us more data on that one). Dementia is an aging disease, so cases will go up as population ages, but it will go up more in populations that are isolated and less in the social ones. The US already has issues because of the relative cultural stigma of the elderly.

I suspect that most people may reduce their socialization but not likely in the way that it is mandated. If I am vaccinated and tested, hell yes I'm seeing my grandparents who are in their 80's. I won't go to a concert and definitely avoid crowded enclosed areas.

[MudPuppy]

But then again, I haven’t had reason to go and get tested, so different circumstances.

Im not into the details but afaik a part of the danish strategy is massive testing to catch stuff early and try and keep stuff as normal as possible. One dude I spoke to said he got tested twice weekly at work - for no apparant reason.

I get tested twice weekly at work, but I work at a hospital. From April 2020 to January 2021 it was the Bad Test (the nasopharyngeal swab) and the staff had constant nose bleeds. We finally got permission to use the Nice Test (nare only rapids) if we were not symptomatic and had no known exposure.

I do think the frequent testing helps.

[former player]

The numbers on dementia will be tricky because mortality from covid is high among the ages most susceptible to dementia, so a decrease in dementia numbers would be a possibility for that reason.

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

[MudPuppy]

@former player i’d be interested to see if the gray matter changes in survivors seen in that (single) study in the UK have any future implications for dementia diagnosis or age of onset.

[the_fixer]

I get tested twice weekly at work, but I work at a hospital. From April 2020 to January 2021 it was the Bad Test (the nasopharyngeal swab) and the staff had constant nose bleeds. We finally got permission to use the Nice Test (nare only rapids) if we were not symptomatic and had no known exposure.

I do think the frequent testing helps.

Honestly that test is half the reason I was so careful last year, I had it done once for the flu and NEVER want to have that thing rammed up my sinuses again.

That must have been rough sorry you had to endure that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MudPuppy]

They made you do the ugly swab for the flu?! Yikes, that stinks.

[Poundwise]

What they get wrong is that the form of the spike protein that the vaccines create doesn't appear to bind to the ACE2 receptors in the same way, and hasn't been observed to cause problems.

Do you have a link to an easy to understand explanation of how and why the vaccine spike differs from the spike in the disease? I have many friends in the Black American community who are vulnerable (in medium-poor health and with poor access to healthcare) who are fearful of possible consequences of the vaccine, and would like to share this with them.

[GuitarStv]

What they get wrong is that the form of the spike protein that the vaccines create doesn't appear to bind to the ACE2 receptors in the same way, and hasn't been observed to cause problems.

Do you have a link to an easy to understand explanation of how and why the vaccine spike differs from the spike in the disease? I have many friends in the Black American community who are vulnerable (in medium-poor health and with poor access to healthcare) who are fearful of possible consequences of the vaccine, and would like to share this with them.

Sure!  I think this link explains what you're looking for:

https://covid19resources.ca/2021/05/13/the-thorny-problem-of-covid-19-vaccines-and-spike-proteins/

When isolated pulmonary arteries were exposed to the spike protein carrying pseudovirus there was some disruption in the ability of the blood vessels to dilate. The decreased ability to expand blood vessels that serve the lungs could impair the ability of the body to take up oxygen from lungs that are damaged by the virus.

The novelty of this study was the discovery that the spike protein itself causes damage, and that the pathway triggered by the spike protein could explain the widespread cardiovascular complications that develop in COVID-19 patients.

Afterall, if COVID-19 vaccines produce spike protein to trigger immunity, and that same spike protein causes injury, then vaccines are really no different than the disease they are designed to prevent.

The problem with these claims is that science doesn’t support their arguments.

The spike protein attaches SARS-CoV2 to cells through a receptor called ACE2. In order to fully interact, the spike protein must undergo a conformational change (4).

A research team lead by Dr. Barney Graham from the Vaccine Research Center at the NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases created an engineered form of the spike protein that is unable to make the shape change required to effectively bind to cells (5). The Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Novavax, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines all use this inactivated spike protein, which means any spike protein that is produced by the vaccine is not able to be activated. This safety-switch limits the ability of the spike protein to bind ACE2 and limits its ability to cause damage.

[Dicey]

Hey @waltworks, I noticed you've been radio silent lately, so I thought I'd ping you from this thread. I miss your vouce, and hope you're okay.

[StashingAway]

The numbers on dementia will be tricky because mortality from covid is high among the ages most susceptible to dementia, so a decrease in dementia numbers would be a possibility for that reason.

Yep, it will take some careful statistics and population sampling. Not something that a reporter from the Guardian will be able to handle, but proper statisticians would be able to give some idea of correlation.

[Michael in ABQ]

Three in 10 Americans Think Pandemic Is Over in U.S.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/351650/three-americans-think-pandemic.aspx

"In your opinion, is the coronavirus pandemic over in the U.S., or not?"

Yes was 29% while No was 71%

Men were 36% Yes while Women were only 22%

However, political party identification showed massive differences.

Republicans were 57% Yes
Independents were 35% Yes
Democrats were 4% Yes


I'm not quite in the yes category, but pretty close - at least in the US. If you look at the attached map there are numerous counties with 0 cases in the last couple weeks and almost every other county is at less than 3 per 100,000. In my state we're down to less than 100 cases per day, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic. It's still trending downward as more than half the population is fully vaccinated and 3/4 of adults have received at least one dose. Nationwide 2/3 of adults have received at least one dose and 56% are fully vaccinated. I don't know what the R0 value is in the US but if it's not below 1.0 it's going to be close by now. I don't know what the technical definition of a disease changing from epidemic to endemic is, but once again, it seems like we're getting close to that point as there are fewer and fewer available hosts between those who are vaccinated and those who have achieved immunity from a previous infection.

[GuitarStv]

Three in 10 Americans Think Pandemic Is Over in U.S.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/351650/three-americans-think-pandemic.aspx

"In your opinion, is the coronavirus pandemic over in the U.S., or not?"

Yes was 29% while No was 71%

Men were 36% Yes while Women were only 22%

However, political party identification showed massive differences.

Republicans were 57% Yes
Independents were 35% Yes
Democrats were 4% Yes


I'm not quite in the yes category, but pretty close - at least in the US. If you look at the attached map there are numerous counties with 0 cases in the last couple weeks and almost every other county is at less than 3 per 100,000. In my state we're down to less than 100 cases per day, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic. It's still trending downward as more than half the population is fully vaccinated and 3/4 of adults have received at least one dose. Nationwide 2/3 of adults have received at least one dose and 56% are fully vaccinated. I don't know what the R0 value is in the US but if it's not below 1.0 it's going to be close by now. I don't know what the technical definition of a disease changing from epidemic to endemic is, but once again, it seems like we're getting close to that point as there are fewer and fewer available hosts between those who are vaccinated and those who have achieved immunity from a previous infection.

It's kind of a weird question.

What is meant by 'is the pandemic over'?

Most people have had the ability to get vaccinated in the US, and case numbers are dropping.  The immediate threat seems to be greatly reduced right now and places are open/re-opening.  But at the same time, only 53% of the population has got the vaccine . . . and there are more deadly/more contagious variants coming out.  Unemployment is still very high, people are still dying (although at a lower rate).

I could easily say yes or no, depending on what I was thinking about when answering that question.

[chemistk]

Three in 10 Americans Think Pandemic Is Over in U.S.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/351650/three-americans-think-pandemic.aspx

"In your opinion, is the coronavirus pandemic over in the U.S., or not?"

Yes was 29% while No was 71%

Men were 36% Yes while Women were only 22%

However, political party identification showed massive differences.

Republicans were 57% Yes
Independents were 35% Yes
Democrats were 4% Yes


I'm not quite in the yes category, but pretty close - at least in the US. If you look at the attached map there are numerous counties with 0 cases in the last couple weeks and almost every other county is at less than 3 per 100,000. In my state we're down to less than 100 cases per day, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic. It's still trending downward as more than half the population is fully vaccinated and 3/4 of adults have received at least one dose. Nationwide 2/3 of adults have received at least one dose and 56% are fully vaccinated. I don't know what the R0 value is in the US but if it's not below 1.0 it's going to be close by now. I don't know what the technical definition of a disease changing from epidemic to endemic is, but once again, it seems like we're getting close to that point as there are fewer and fewer available hosts between those who are vaccinated and those who have achieved immunity from a previous infection.

It's kind of a weird question.

What is meant by 'is the pandemic over'?

Most people have had the ability to get vaccinated in the US, and case numbers are dropping.  The immediate threat seems to be greatly reduced right now and places are open/re-opening.  But at the same time, only 53% of the population has got the vaccine . . . and there are more deadly/more contagious variants coming out.  Unemployment is still very high, people are still dying (although at a lower rate).

I could easily say yes or no, depending on what I was thinking about when answering that question.

Not only that, but the question is laughably vague. By what criteria would you consider the pandemic over? By all accounts, Covid-19 is still a pandemic from a public health standpoint, especially globally. Do they mean that it's no longer a disease of concern? That our lives are back to normal? That we can all pretend like it never heppened?

[The 585]

I've started seeing many recent articles that health experts are hinting booster shots may be needed for those who received the J&J vaccine due to potential variant breakthrough. This frustrates me as someone who got the J&J shot for the quickest path to traveling again soon, as it could open up ambiguity for other countries as what they consider "fully vaccinated". The last thing I want is to hear European leadership all of a sudden saying "Fully vaccinated tourists allowed -- UNLESS that vaccine was a J&J".

Any chance I can just go ahead and get Pfizer or something even though I already got J&J almost two months ago?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/

[GuitarStv]

I've started seeing many recent articles that health experts are hinting booster shots may be needed for those who received the J&J vaccine due to potential variant breakthrough. This frustrates me as someone who got the J&J shot for the quickest path to traveling again soon, as it could open up ambiguity for other countries as what they consider "fully vaccinated". The last thing I want is to hear European leadership all of a sudden saying "Fully vaccinated tourists allowed -- UNLESS that vaccine was a J&J".

Any chance I can just go ahead and get Pfizer or something even though I already got J&J almost two months ago?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/

So far, immediate travel and vaccination seems like it's going to be a clusterfuck.  Places in the US have already started banning people who got two shots of Astra Zeneca from events (https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/questions-raised-about-future-of-travel-after-astrazeneca-vaccine-not-accepted-at-u-s-concert-1.5474634).  I wouldn't be surprised if there will be similar limits from other countries depending on what you've been given and where you want to go/what you want to do.

There isn't yet a list of commonly accepted vaccinations, and with many countries mixing and matching vaccinations without data it's going to be even trickier.

There's:
Moderna
Pfizer
Johnson and Johnson
Astra Zeneca
Sinovac
Sputnik

and random combinations of the above.

So far, the safest bet for travel seems to be two shots of Moderna, or two shots of Pfizer as they are the best studied / most effective vaccines.  At least near future, I wouldn't bet on mRNA + adenovirus vaccines being OK'd as the research on effectiveness isn't yet in.

[habanero]

Was just out in the news here that we would receive 15% more doses than expected in July and 30% more in August. The reason is "changes in internal distribution inside the EU", which is a diplomatic way of saying that vaccine saturation is starting to set in some places. Some countries are cancelling their orders as they don't need 'em and they get redistributed to countries where people are more willing to get shors. EU buys under a common programme and doses are distributed proportionally to population.

Gonna be exiting to see where vaccination rates peak out. I'm pretty certain it will be at somewhere too low many places.

[former player]

At least near future, I wouldn't bet on mRNA + adenovirus vaccines being OK'd as the research on effectiveness isn't yet in.

There's some preliminary data which suggests that mixing mRNA and adenovirus vaccines can have good results -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636356
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

[GuitarStv]

At least near future, I wouldn't bet on mRNA + adenovirus vaccines being OK'd as the research on effectiveness isn't yet in.

There's some preliminary data which suggests that mixing mRNA and adenovirus vaccines can have good results -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636356
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

Yep, there's plenty of investigation going on.  But nothing has been proven, and all these studies take time.  I'd figure we'll have a much better idea of efficacy by Christmas.

[scottish]

At least near future, I wouldn't bet on mRNA + adenovirus vaccines being OK'd as the research on effectiveness isn't yet in.

There's some preliminary data which suggests that mixing mRNA and adenovirus vaccines can have good results -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636356
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

Good thing my vaccine receipt doesn't identify the first dose as AZ then?    I wonder what will be accepted as prove of vaccination...
Yep, there's plenty of investigation going on.  But nothing has been proven, and all these studies take time.  I'd figure we'll have a much better idea of efficacy by Christmas.

[GuitarStv]

At least near future, I wouldn't bet on mRNA + adenovirus vaccines being OK'd as the research on effectiveness isn't yet in.

There's some preliminary data which suggests that mixing mRNA and adenovirus vaccines can have good results -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636356
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

Good thing my vaccine receipt doesn't identify the first dose as AZ then?    I wonder what will be accepted as prove of vaccination...
Yep, there's plenty of investigation going on.  But nothing has been proven, and all these studies take time.  I'd figure we'll have a much better idea of efficacy by Christmas.

Yeah, I was actually wondering if that's why Canada did it that way.

[Plina]

Was just out in the news here that we would receive 15% more doses than expected in July and 30% more in August. The reason is "changes in internal distribution inside the EU", which is a diplomatic way of saying that vaccine saturation is starting to set in some places. Some countries are cancelling their orders as they don't need 'em and they get redistributed to countries where people are more willing to get shors. EU buys under a common programme and doses are distributed proportionally to population.

Gonna be exiting to see where vaccination rates peak out. I'm pretty certain it will be at somewhere too low many places.

My guess would be that they are pretty high in the nordics. I haven’t heard about a single person not taking the vaccine. I guess it would be a pretty controversial thing to admit. The problem has rather been to find available slots. They opened up for 18 year olds today in my region and the booking system crashed under the demands.

Regarding when the pandemic is over, I would guess many would say when they are fully vaccinated or in some cases when they have to return to the office. It seems that people in those age groups that are vaccinated have taken a very carefree approach, which doesn’t always feel comfortable for those that are not.

[Poundwise]

What they get wrong is that the form of the spike protein that the vaccines create doesn't appear to bind to the ACE2 receptors in the same way, and hasn't been observed to cause problems.

Do you have a link to an easy to understand explanation of how and why the vaccine spike differs from the spike in the disease? I have many friends in the Black American community who are vulnerable (in medium-poor health and with poor access to healthcare) who are fearful of possible consequences of the vaccine, and would like to share this with them.

Sure!  I think this link explains what you're looking for:

https://covid19resources.ca/2021/05/13/the-thorny-problem-of-covid-19-vaccines-and-spike-proteins/

When isolated pulmonary arteries were exposed to the spike protein carrying pseudovirus there was some disruption in the ability of the blood vessels to dilate. The decreased ability to expand blood vessels that serve the lungs could impair the ability of the body to take up oxygen from lungs that are damaged by the virus.

The novelty of this study was the discovery that the spike protein itself causes damage, and that the pathway triggered by the spike protein could explain the widespread cardiovascular complications that develop in COVID-19 patients.

Afterall, if COVID-19 vaccines produce spike protein to trigger immunity, and that same spike protein causes injury, then vaccines are really no different than the disease they are designed to prevent.

The problem with these claims is that science doesn’t support their arguments.

The spike protein attaches SARS-CoV2 to cells through a receptor called ACE2. In order to fully interact, the spike protein must undergo a conformational change (4).

A research team lead by Dr. Barney Graham from the Vaccine Research Center at the NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases created an engineered form of the spike protein that is unable to make the shape change required to effectively bind to cells (5). The Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Novavax, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines all use this inactivated spike protein, which means any spike protein that is produced by the vaccine is not able to be activated. This safety-switch limits the ability of the spike protein to bind ACE2 and limits its ability to cause damage.

Thanks!! I will have to boil it down even further but this gives me something to work on.

[GuitarStv]

What they get wrong is that the form of the spike protein that the vaccines create doesn't appear to bind to the ACE2 receptors in the same way, and hasn't been observed to cause problems.

Do you have a link to an easy to understand explanation of how and why the vaccine spike differs from the spike in the disease? I have many friends in the Black American community who are vulnerable (in medium-poor health and with poor access to healthcare) who are fearful of possible consequences of the vaccine, and would like to share this with them.

Sure!  I think this link explains what you're looking for:

https://covid19resources.ca/2021/05/13/the-thorny-problem-of-covid-19-vaccines-and-spike-proteins/

When isolated pulmonary arteries were exposed to the spike protein carrying pseudovirus there was some disruption in the ability of the blood vessels to dilate. The decreased ability to expand blood vessels that serve the lungs could impair the ability of the body to take up oxygen from lungs that are damaged by the virus.

The novelty of this study was the discovery that the spike protein itself causes damage, and that the pathway triggered by the spike protein could explain the widespread cardiovascular complications that develop in COVID-19 patients.

Afterall, if COVID-19 vaccines produce spike protein to trigger immunity, and that same spike protein causes injury, then vaccines are really no different than the disease they are designed to prevent.

The problem with these claims is that science doesn’t support their arguments.

The spike protein attaches SARS-CoV2 to cells through a receptor called ACE2. In order to fully interact, the spike protein must undergo a conformational change (4).

A research team lead by Dr. Barney Graham from the Vaccine Research Center at the NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases created an engineered form of the spike protein that is unable to make the shape change required to effectively bind to cells (5). The Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Novavax, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines all use this inactivated spike protein, which means any spike protein that is produced by the vaccine is not able to be activated. This safety-switch limits the ability of the spike protein to bind ACE2 and limits its ability to cause damage.

Thanks!! I will have to boil it down even further but this gives me something to work on.

Basically, the spike protein created by the vaccines is close enough to the covid-19 protein to let the immune system learn to fight it, but disabled enough so it can't bind to the ACE2 receptor and cause damage.

[Gin1984]

I've started seeing many recent articles that health experts are hinting booster shots may be needed for those who received the J&J vaccine due to potential variant breakthrough. This frustrates me as someone who got the J&J shot for the quickest path to traveling again soon, as it could open up ambiguity for other countries as what they consider "fully vaccinated". The last thing I want is to hear European leadership all of a sudden saying "Fully vaccinated tourists allowed -- UNLESS that vaccine was a J&J".

Any chance I can just go ahead and get Pfizer or something even though I already got J&J almost two months ago?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/

I know people are doing it.  Talk to your doctor.

[Kyle Schuant]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

[former player]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

So how's containment going in Australia at the moment?

There may be better information now, but here are my sources from 28 June:

"In Sydney, officials say the virus is infecting 100% of household contacts when it's brought into a home."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57633457

"... case reported on Friday afternoon of a man in his 50s who was on the same floor of the Westfield Bondi Junction Myer as the initial Bondi case last Saturday. NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant which is behind this outbreak is a “near and present danger” given the fleeting contact between cases at the Bondi Junction Westfield.  “It is fair to say that this Delta virus would appear to be a near and present danger to anybody who is in the vicinity." The woman in her 40s regularly walks through the shopping centre, and it is not clear yet the date transmission occurred."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/19/new-south-wales-records-three-new-covid-cases-as-mandatory-masks-introduced

[marty998]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

Actually, yes. It's that bad. If someone in your family has it then everyone in your family gets it.

Three weeks after lockdown Sydneysiders are only now taking it seriously because the hospital beds are starting to fill up. 10% of cases are winding up in hospital...

This strain isn't just a boomer-remover, it's spreading very fast and it's hitting all age groups.

[marty998]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

So how's containment going in Australia at the moment?

There may be better information now, but here are my sources from 28 June:

"In Sydney, officials say the virus is infecting 100% of household contacts when it's brought into a home."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57633457

"... case reported on Friday afternoon of a man in his 50s who was on the same floor of the Westfield Bondi Junction Myer as the initial Bondi case last Saturday. NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant which is behind this outbreak is a “near and present danger” given the fleeting contact between cases at the Bondi Junction Westfield.  “It is fair to say that this Delta virus would appear to be a near and present danger to anybody who is in the vicinity." The woman in her 40s regularly walks through the shopping centre, and it is not clear yet the date transmission occurred."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/19/new-south-wales-records-three-new-covid-cases-as-mandatory-masks-introduced

NSW is pretty fucked at the moment. Expecting 100+ cases to be reported tomorrow.

We've sat here for a year by absolute dumb luck with 0-1 cases a day and the genie has finally escaped the bottle. Our incompetent federal government not only tried to nickle and dime Pfizer last year so they simply said "piss off, we'll send them to other countries first", but now has also successfully managed to scare the population against the AZ vaccine so right now we sit with only 8% fully vaccinated.

Hubris is always the downfall. We're a bloody laughing stock now.

To the 2 loud Victorians in this thread... you've complained a lot about heavy handed lockdowns but geez there's a lot of us up here who wish our state government did the same thing when the first cases were reported.