How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[waltworks]

Well, 95% is pretty freaking good. I don't think any live virus vaccines get that high, do they? Maybe low 90s for a few?

I've already had Covid (along with basically everyone where I live, the ski towns got hit hard at the very start) so I'm not personally worried about it anymore. If I were vaccinated I'd feel the same way. I'll keep wearing a mask and not being totally silly, of course, but I'm now openly hanging out with friends (ie teachers) who are vaccinated and we don't think anything of it anymore.

Remember back last summer when the same folks were telling us humanity had never made a coronavirus vaccine? Some people just like to revel in pessimism, I guess.

-W

[Longwaytogo]

Well, 95% is pretty freaking good. I don't think any live virus vaccines get that high, do they? Maybe low 90s for a few?

I've already had Covid (along with basically everyone where I live, the ski towns got hit hard at the very start) so I'm not personally worried about it anymore. If I were vaccinated I'd feel the same way. I'll keep wearing a mask and not being totally silly, of course, but I'm now openly hanging out with friends (ie teachers) who are vaccinated and we don't think anything of it anymore.

Remember back last summer when the same folks were telling us humanity had never made a coronavirus vaccine? Some people just like to revel in pessimism, I guess.

-W

The pessimism on the internet knows no bounds!

Agree that 95% sounds pretty damn good to me.

[HBFIRE]

95% Efficacy is amazing.  And the data coming from Israel, really the first and fastest "real world" study that we have, is looking extremely promising.

[dandarc]

Upthread there were concerns about vaccinated population contributing the spread of the virus. I initially was thinking along the lines 'yeah 5% is still quite a few people, and many are going to take "I'm vaccinated" as an excuse to go back to so-called normal life more quickly', but the real issue is the vaccine creating a much larger group that is contributing to asymptomatic spread. Because, like many other vaccines, this one is likely to produce 'effective immunity' - prevents the disease - rather than 'sterilizing immunity' - prevents even asymptomatic infection.

These vaccines are very good at protecting individuals, but because they don't produce sterilizing immunity (at least that is not proven), that doesn't immediately translate directly into protecting the population. And as time passes, we have new folks in the vulnerable population, immunity may wane over time so the need to protect at a population level doesn't go away.

So this ramp up phase is both encouraging and depressing. Encouraging in that the vaccines work and work well - perhaps an end of the increased death and illness is near. Depressing in that we do need to continue with measures until a huge portion of the population is immune lest we create yet more unnecessary harm to our neighbors.

[Shane]

Isn't it also true that not even one of the people who received the vaccine became sick enough from Covid to be admitted to a hospital? If so, that seems pretty significant.

[cerat0n1a]

As of this morning, I know more people who've been vaccinated (well, only 1 of 2 shots so far) than people who've tested positive over the past year, so hopefully 'the curve' will be going in the right direction from now on.

[chemistk]

So your argument is that more people may have been vaccinated and infected . . . but were asymptomatic?

I'm not making any argument here, just trying to clarify what we can actually conclude from the vaccine studies done so far.  I think it's important to be careful with that, as there is a ton of misinformation going around.   The statement "you have 1 in 20 chance of getting infected if you are vaccinated" is a very wrong conclusion to make for a multitude of reasons.  The primary one, of course, is that chances of infection are relative to disease prevalance.  The other big one is that we didn't test for infection rates among vaccinations.   It's also wrong to conclude from the studies "1 in 20 chance of getting sick with covid" with a vaccination, as thats not what was concluded either.  The only thing the limited study concluded is that ~ 5% of those who got sick with covid during the trial period were vaccinated.   Many inferences can be drawn from this, but we have to be careful to not draw conclusions that aren't necessarily accurate.

My original point was simply that these vaccines do not provide full protection against covid . . . and that people should not assume that it does.

Sure it's not FULL protection; but 95% is pretty damn effective especially as more people get the Vaccine your less and less likely to be exposed.

Also seems we need to be careful not to undersell the vaccine. Already in the US as much as half the population is skeptical of it.

I've already heard multiple people this week "well if it doesn't work against the UK/South Africa/CA varirty anyway then why bother get it"

Fine line I guess between overselling/underselling but I would think in the US at least overselling it is the less of two evuls3 right now ?

The line I bolded needs to be really weighed heavily, here, there, and everywhere.

I get it (to all the skeptics here) healthy skepticism is necessary as a check to uncontrolled optimism, which in turn leads to people acting carelessly thinking they won't get sick/infect others.

But we've got a real problem across society - many view the vaccine as the end to the pandemic but:

-1) Some (lots?) are foolish and undereducated and think that the vaccine confers immunity
-2) Some (also lots?) are skeptical of the vaccine and don't want to take it.
-3) Some won't take the vaccine
-4) Some (lots and lots?) think the pandemic is a scam
-5) Some are pessimistic that a vaccine will do anything and would just rather everyone stay home
-6) Some (hopefully more than the rest of the above) understand that a combination of vaccine and continued social pandemic mitigation will be the winning combo that ends this thing.

If you drew a venn diagram, many of the above wouldn't overlap enough.

We're fighting too many battles over this - here, and out there. Fear and skepticism aside, it's not healthy to continue to have a debbie downer/devil's advocate in every conversation who chimes in and says "yes, but...5% still get it/ it's not as effective against  the SA and UK strains/it's not safe/etc..."

It just further stokes the fire of fear that plenty of people have.

I highly encourage a listen to the "Factually! with Adam Conover" podcast on this topic - "Medical Myths and Hoe to Fight Them...".

[Michael in ABQ]

I think a lot of the sceptics will come around in the next few months as they see friends, family, co-workers, etc. getting vaccinated with little or no side effects. Also, if there are requirements to be vaccinated for things like air travel or patronizing certain private businesses.

A year from now when the vaccine is widely available and everyone (at least in the US) that wants it, will we be at 60%, 70%, 90%? Hopefully the latter and not the former. However, even at 60-70% with the number of people that have already been exposed we should be close to herd immunity.

Over time if there's a significant chunk of the population that doesn't get vaccinated they will experience periodic waves of reinfection similar to how Measles has spread in unvaccinated groups.

[former player]

There's also a big concern over mutations in the virus.  Given the numbers of people with the virus, the lack of treatment for most, the limited ability of existing treatments to eliminate the virus and the high likelihood of vaccine boosters not being used on the proper timescales, vaccines in any case having some sort of "failure" rate (ie they keep people alive but may not prevent transmission), and vaccination of complete populations taking months or even years, the chances are high of there being large numbers of mutations seem pretty high - there are already several known and most places aren't even looking for them.

Some of those mutations will be more contagious, some will be more deadly or create more long-term disabilities.  The only question is how far those mutations spread.

I suspect that the human race may be deeply fucked on this one.

[waltworks]

For crying out loud, the human race wouldn't be "fucked" even if we'd done nothing at all and there was no vaccine. We'd have a lot of dead elders which would be horrible, but it would settle into being an endemic childhood disease and life would go on just fine.

I like disaster porn as much as anyone but if you think the human race is just screwed every time anything goes wrong you haven't studied history very carefully. The future is bright.

-W

[HBFIRE]

I like disaster porn as much as anyone but if you think the human race is just screwed every time anything goes wrong you haven't studied history very carefully. The future is bright.

True that.  This is barely a blip on our timeline.

[HPstache]

I suspect that the human race may be deeply fucked on this one.

This is just silly talk.

[GuitarStv]

I suspect that the human race may be deeply fucked on this one.

This is just silly talk.

Yeah.  We're deeply fucked on climate change.  Covid is not a big deal (in comparison).

[chemistk]

For crying out loud, the human race wouldn't be "fucked" even if we'd done nothing at all and there was no vaccine. We'd have a lot of dead elders which would be horrible, but it would settle into being an endemic childhood disease and life would go on just fine.

I like disaster porn as much as anyone but if you think the human race is just screwed every time anything goes wrong you haven't studied history very carefully. The future is bright.

-W

+1

I suspect that the human race may be deeply fucked on this one.

This is just silly talk.

Yeah.  We're deeply fucked on climate change.  Covid is not a big deal (in comparison).

Agreed. And now because society at-at-large is burned out by this, climate action stands to recede to the background for a while.

[GuitarStv]

I suspect that the human race may be deeply fucked on this one.

This is just silly talk.

Yeah.  We're deeply fucked on climate change.  Covid is not a big deal (in comparison).

Agreed. And now because society at-at-large is burned out by this, climate action stands to recede to the background for a while.

Ah, we were never going to take climate change seriously anyway . . . not until it was way too late.  Covid is a clear and present danger NOW.  Climate change is a clear and present danger in like 50 - 100 years.  Pffft.  Plenty of time to roll some coal between then and now.

[former player]

I don't see any realistic answers on climate change either, but it's a different subject for a different thread.

So all you happy people, what's your answer on covid-19?  Do you think there is a realistic chance of eliminating the virus or are we all going to accept it stays with us and hope to get a vaccine before the virus gets us?  Can 7 billion people all be vaccinated?

Worst of all, there have been about 100 million infections so far in people.  That's 100 million chances for the virus to mutate.  We also know that the virus infects some animals, including farmed mink and most of the cat family.  How many more chances to mutate is that?

How many of those mutations are being caught? Denmark genetically tests every positive test, the UK 10%. How many of the infections in the USA have been genetically tested for mutations? (Answer, almost none - but the USA has had by far the most infections so the most chance for mutations.)

Of the mutations we already know about, 3 are known to be more infectious than the original "wild" virus, and are suspected of being more deadly - the Brazil virus kills people in their 20s, 30s and 40s.  The original virus has killed 20% of people over 80 in Italy who are known to have had the virus: that's not looking good for longevity statistics.

I've been reasonably positive about the virus until fairly recently.  It's the news about the mutations that has changed the game - we have created perfect conditions for the virus to evolve in new and exciting methods of transmission and enhanced methods of killing its host - after a nice long dormant period during which it spreads.  There is no national or international strategy for dealing with it, other than just firefighting what is immediately in front of us - which, come to think of it, is rather like our strategy for dealing with climate change, which is to clean up after each new disaster and carry on with not much changed.

I'm in the UK, currently on our third lockdown, this one caused by the current "UK" variant.  I'm pissed and I'm sad and I'm worried, and people I know have died and are possibly dying right now.  So if any of you can tell me there is a workable strategy to get rid of this virus do please tell, I'd like to hear.  But I don't think you can because there isn't, not from anyone.

[HBFIRE]

So all you happy people, what's your answer on covid-19?  Do you think there is a realistic chance of eliminating the virus or are we all going to accept it stays with us and hope to get a vaccine before the virus gets us?  Can 7 billion people all be vaccinated?

From what I have read, most likely it will be here to stay just like the flu.  It will likely lose some of its virulence over time, just like the flu has, as our immune systems + vaccines build up better defense and we have better treatments.  Mutation should slow as the prevalance declines, then we will be better equipped to handle it.  Even though variants are a concern right now, covid 19 still mutates vastly slower than the common flu does.  This means over time, it should be less of a concern than the flu as far as mutation is concerned, and our vaccines should be more effective.

[waltworks]

Viruses mutate all the time. Some of them kill some people. That's been going on for all of human history, and before. We'll be fine.

It will be an endemic childhood disease. Nobody will think about it in 20 or 30 years except us old farts when reminiscing. It'll be an event that ties some younger folks together like the Challenger disaster, or Princess Di dying, or 9/11 for various other generations.

Otherwise it's a nothingburger.

-W

[Kris]

I don't see any realistic answers on climate change either, but it's a different subject for a different thread.

So all you happy people, what's your answer on covid-19?  Do you think there is a realistic chance of eliminating the virus or are we all going to accept it stays with us and hope to get a vaccine before the virus gets us?  Can 7 billion people all be vaccinated?

Worst of all, there have been about 100 million infections so far in people.  That's 100 million chances for the virus to mutate.  We also know that the virus infects some animals, including farmed mink and most of the cat family.  How many more chances to mutate is that?

How many of those mutations are being caught? Denmark genetically tests every positive test, the UK 10%. How many of the infections in the USA have been genetically tested for mutations? (Answer, almost none - but the USA has had by far the most infections so the most chance for mutations.)

Of the mutations we already know about, 3 are known to be more infectious than the original "wild" virus, and are suspected of being more deadly - the Brazil virus kills people in their 20s, 30s and 40s.  The original virus has killed 20% of people over 80 in Italy who are known to have had the virus: that's not looking good for longevity statistics.

I've been reasonably positive about the virus until fairly recently.  It's the news about the mutations that has changed the game - we have created perfect conditions for the virus to evolve in new and exciting methods of transmission and enhanced methods of killing its host - after a nice long dormant period during which it spreads.  There is no national or international strategy for dealing with it, other than just firefighting what is immediately in front of us - which, come to think of it, is rather like our strategy for dealing with climate change, which is to clean up after each new disaster and carry on with not much changed.

I'm in the UK, currently on our third lockdown, this one caused by the current "UK" variant.  I'm pissed and I'm sad and I'm worried, and people I know have died and are possibly dying right now.  So if any of you can tell me there is a workable strategy to get rid of this virus do please tell, I'd like to hear.  But I don't think you can because there isn't, not from anyone.

I think it will take until 2022 for us to get Covid vaccines to enough people to achieve herd immunity. But given that it keeps mutating, my guess is we are looking at it becoming endemic like the flu, and going forward, we’ll need to get vaccinated for both once a year. And the anti-vax nonsense will continue on into the future as a result.

[waltworks]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/health/coronavirus-immunity-future.html

-W

[chemistk]

So all you happy people, what's your answer on covid-19? 

I wouldn't necessarily call myself 'happy' in reference to the pandemic. In fact, generally I tend to slightly lean pessimist on topics I am at least somewhat informed about.

That being said -

1) I can do nothing to control the pandemic. Not globally, nationally, regionally, or (for the most part) locally.
2) If I worry about point 1, I will probably die of a stress-induced aneurysm.
3) In our marriage, my wife is much more anxious about sociopolitical concerns than I am, so I try and do my best to apply the logic of point 2 across other issues of concern.
4) I have a specific line from the book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" written on various whiteboards and frequent touchpoints to keep it drilled into my skull - paraphrased, "[Broad Framing] >> [Narrow Framing]". Applying that to the pandemic, right NOW life sucks. People are dying, and the virus is burning through the globe's vulnerable populations. Referring back to point #1, I can do nothing about that. I can do nothing about the speed of vaccines. Even with the best mitigation, I ultimately can't even control whether I, personally, will contract the virus*. These are things that are happening in the present, they are all connected but ultimately individual events. My concern about one only serves to amplify my concern about the others.

If I take a step back, WAY back - closer to walt's viewpoint - things start to look different. We will have lost many millions globally to this disease. Many millions more will be in worse economic shape for the rest of their lives. That's really depressing, and neither of those points ever deserve to be glazed over. But eventually, this disease will fade into the background, and with the terrible consequences come incredibly bright spots. Arguably, it may have prevented the US from another term under Trump. We will (at least for a while) stop taking healthcare systems for granted. The mRNA vaccines are wild successes - they will give us incredibly powerful weapons against this, existing, and future disease.

Another thing will eventually rear its ugly head and we'll all focus on that. Another pandemic? War? Terrorism? Natural disaster? Alien invasion?. I hope for none of these but statistics say all of them are likely to occur (hopefully not the last one).

-----

To answer your question - there is NO true answer to the pandemic. At least, not from me. And Boris, Joe, the WHO, the CDC, Elon, Jeff, Bill, the NHS - none of them have the answer either. Not individually at least.

Our brains try and make sense of anything that seems big and scary. When it's this big and scary, we try and simultaneously make sense of each 'segment' of the thing as well as the thing itself.

Take that step back and look at this on a longer time scale, just for a second. Put yourself 10, 50, 100 years from now and imagine all the things that you'll have worried about since the pandemic. How does the pandemic fit into the scale of the future. How has any major global event affected the course of history?

Then, go back into the 'now' and do what you can. Draw your circles of control and concern if you must. Wear a mask, listen to health guidance, help stop misinformation, get the vaccine when available, help out local businesses if that's important to you. Take a breath, take a nap, read a book, talk to your loved ones. Whether or not we want it to, life will move on. To what degree you accept that maxim is entirely up to you. Me? I'm all in on it.


*I know I can control whether I will contract the virus, but I also do not want the quality of my life or my family's lives to plummet simply because we refuse to become infected.

[former player]

[...] go back into the 'now' and do what you can. Draw your circles of control and concern if you must. Wear a mask, listen to health guidance, help stop misinformation, get the vaccine when available, help out local businesses if that's important to you. Take a breath, take a nap, read a book, talk to your loved ones. Whether or not we want it to, life will move on. To what degree you accept that maxim is entirely up to you. Me? I'm all in on it.

All of which I'm doing. But I'm seeing the effects of the UK variant and they are not good.  And even that is better than the South Africa variant or the Brazil variant  What are the chances of 60 million South Africans getting vaccinated before the South Africa variant mutates again?  Or the 200 million Brazilians getting vaccinated before that variant mutates again?  And these variants are more infectious than the first version of the virus, which itself is more infectious than either the cold or flue viruses.

There are millions dead already and will be millions more dead soon.  Economies the world over are etiher cratering or living on borrowed money - how long will that go on?  World poverty is going up, as is world food insecurity.   I'm as insulated from all these effects as anyone can be, I have a secure income in a secure first world country.  But if I look past my bubble I'm seeing a whole world of hurt and an insecure future for most people that is worse than the one they hoped for.  I can direct some of my money towards mitigation, and do, but I can't shut my eyes to the misery and death all this is causing and will cause around the globe, even when there is nothing I personally can do.

[chemistk]

[...] go back into the 'now' and do what you can. Draw your circles of control and concern if you must. Wear a mask, listen to health guidance, help stop misinformation, get the vaccine when available, help out local businesses if that's important to you. Take a breath, take a nap, read a book, talk to your loved ones. Whether or not we want it to, life will move on. To what degree you accept that maxim is entirely up to you. Me? I'm all in on it.

All of which I'm doing. But I'm seeing the effects of the UK variant and they are not good.  And even that is better than the South Africa variant or the Brazil variant  What are the chances of 60 million South Africans getting vaccinated before the South Africa variant mutates again?  Or the 200 million Brazilians getting vaccinated before that variant mutates again?  And these variants are more infectious than the first version of the virus, which itself is more infectious than either the cold or flue viruses.

There are millions dead already and will be millions more dead soon.  Economies the world over are etiher cratering or living on borrowed money - how long will that go on?  World poverty is going up, as is world food insecurity.   I'm as insulated from all these effects as anyone can be, I have a secure income in a secure first world country.  But if I look past my bubble I'm seeing a whole world of hurt and an insecure future for most people that is worse than the one they hoped for.  I can direct some of my money towards mitigation, and do, but I can't shut my eyes to the misery and death all this is causing and will cause around the globe, even when there is nothing I personally can do.

I mean, I don't want to stoke your fears even more, but devil's advocate - there are indeed (not likely, but statistically so) variants circulating now that are more infectious/deadly than those we are already aware of. As time goes on, so do the mutations.

I framed my previous post just so because I think a lot of us (and I suspect you would agree) have felt like this is a burden we all must take on - not just the mitigation strategies, but the entire pandemic. And this would not be wrong - to grasp the magnitude of this thing we as individuals would otherwise never be aware of, which only through the collective power of our global society we have come to realize is important, we must all have a certain understanding and acceptance of the many facets of the pandemic.

Our individual brains are utterly exhausted and overwhelmed by this. It's not a new concept - how many times do you find yourself worrying about and trying to divine solutions for something you have no influence over? I do it, we all do it. And this pandemic is no different.

I'll say it again - this pandemic is no different.

I'll reiterate the following - YOU cannot influence virus mutations, vaccine administration, actions of those outside your circle (and even inside), the global acceptance of this tragedy, the hospital capacity in your country or other countries, or a whole host of other things.

YOU also cannot influence whether Yellowstone is going to blow tomorrow, if a solar flare wipes out the world's electrical grids, whether a hummingbird lands in your backyard in winter, or the direction the wind is going to blow today.

List A is nearly all human action and B is nearly all 'acts of God'. And yet, both are equivalent for at least one reason - YOU cannot influence those.

YOU can do one big, important, thing - as The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy tells us: "Don't Panic!". Fear, anxiety, and panic (which I know is a manifestation of both fear and anxiety) are all just as contagious as the virus. It's the natural cognitive response to things we cannot comprehend (and again, none of us can). Stop THAT spread - because your fear could cause someone else to start to panic and you may have a good, rational, internal response to your own panic to prevent you from doing something irrational - but what's to say that someone else's fear won't manifest itself in a terrible way?

[jrhampt]

Former player has a different perspective being in the UK and seeing the effects of that variant up close.  Probably similar to those of us who lived through the spring surge in the NY/NJ/CT area and tried unsuccessfully to get our southern relatives to understand how bad it was...we may get to see the UK variant's effects firsthand in another month or so for ourselves.  I'm hoping that the vaccines get ahead of it, but I'm just saying he/she may have a good reason for pessimism.

Edited to add: I'm a big HHGTTG fan too, but the Brazilian strain sounds particularly bad, and that has already arrived in Minnesota.

[GuitarStv]

Former player has a different perspective being in the UK and seeing the effects of that variant up close.  Probably similar to those of us who lived through the spring surge in the NY/NJ/CT area and tried unsuccessfully to get our southern relatives to understand how bad it was...we may get to see the UK variant's effects firsthand in another month or so for ourselves.  I'm hoping that the vaccines get ahead of it, but I'm just saying he/she may have a good reason for pessimism.

Edited to add: I'm a big HHGTTG fan too, but the Brazilian strain sounds particularly bad, and that has already arrived in Minnesota.

UK variant is spreading all over the place here in Canada.  The old age home down the street from where my mom lives just had more than 100 cases and 50 deaths from it.

That's what happens when you allow recreational travel during a pandemic.

[jrhampt]

Former player has a different perspective being in the UK and seeing the effects of that variant up close.  Probably similar to those of us who lived through the spring surge in the NY/NJ/CT area and tried unsuccessfully to get our southern relatives to understand how bad it was...we may get to see the UK variant's effects firsthand in another month or so for ourselves.  I'm hoping that the vaccines get ahead of it, but I'm just saying he/she may have a good reason for pessimism.

Edited to add: I'm a big HHGTTG fan too, but the Brazilian strain sounds particularly bad, and that has already arrived in Minnesota.

UK variant is spreading all over the place here in Canada.  The old age home down the street from where my mom lives just had more than 100 cases and 50 deaths from it.

That's what happens when you allow recreational travel during a pandemic.

Good god, yes.  IDK why we are letting people travel like that.  But haven't you gotten all your nursing home residents vaccinated yet?  My state now has all of ours fully vaccinated.  Or did it hit too early for that?

[MudPuppy]

Both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have preliminary data that suggest they are useful against the UK variant.

Remember that while mutations happen (and have been happening, we’ve had multiple strains since quite early on) and they might indeed get scarier, they can also stay similar, or become less concerning.

@former player reading your posts, I think you might have stress related burnout that is causing you to have difficulties with your circle of control boundaries. You might consider going on a news fast for a bit and see if that helps.

[GuitarStv]

Former player has a different perspective being in the UK and seeing the effects of that variant up close.  Probably similar to those of us who lived through the spring surge in the NY/NJ/CT area and tried unsuccessfully to get our southern relatives to understand how bad it was...we may get to see the UK variant's effects firsthand in another month or so for ourselves.  I'm hoping that the vaccines get ahead of it, but I'm just saying he/she may have a good reason for pessimism.

Edited to add: I'm a big HHGTTG fan too, but the Brazilian strain sounds particularly bad, and that has already arrived in Minnesota.

UK variant is spreading all over the place here in Canada.  The old age home down the street from where my mom lives just had more than 100 cases and 50 deaths from it.

That's what happens when you allow recreational travel during a pandemic.

Good god, yes.  IDK why we are letting people travel like that.  But haven't you gotten all your nursing home residents vaccinated yet?  My state now has all of ours fully vaccinated.  Or did it hit too early for that?

The outbreak started three weeks ago.  Only 2% of the population has been vaccinated, I don't know what percentage of older people that covers (priority is supposed to be the elderly and emergency services).

The vaccines we bought and paid for aren't being delivered by Pfizer and Moderna on time . . . and the EU is currently deciding if they want to prevent export of our vaccines for European use.

[waltworks]

Wow, Canada is only at 2% vaccinated?!? How are you guys actually behind the US? We suck!

-W

[chemistk]

Former player has a different perspective being in the UK and seeing the effects of that variant up close.  Probably similar to those of us who lived through the spring surge in the NY/NJ/CT area and tried unsuccessfully to get our southern relatives to understand how bad it was...we may get to see the UK variant's effects firsthand in another month or so for ourselves.  I'm hoping that the vaccines get ahead of it, but I'm just saying he/she may have a good reason for pessimism.

Edited to add: I'm a big HHGTTG fan too, but the Brazilian strain sounds particularly bad, and that has already arrived in Minnesota.

But, what good does being pessimistic do for you? Pessimism can help individuals live a cautious lifestyle and it's a core component of keeping a level, realistic perspective on things. As I mentioned to my first reply to former player, I tend to be a natural pessimist/realist.

And yet, what good does it do? If anything pessimism, unfiltered, should be kept out of the public discourse. So should unfiltered optimism.

It's okay to be depressed about what's going on, and to have a doubtful outlook, but untempered pessimism just causes others to be pessimistic (or worse, to panic). These boards are relatively 'safe' in that anyone reading this deep in a a thread on these forums is probably (mostly) going to have strong filtering and coping mechanisms for both unrealistically optimistic and pessimistic news.

So, around here it's fine to wade through the self-gratifying puddles of sadness but out there? That's the exact line of thinking that causes people to become depressed and skeptical. If you were to share the same comments on your local FB group, how many people upon hearing the bad juju around the mutations, would just throw in the towel about caring about vaccination (or worse, the pandemic)? Even if just one person no longer decided to voluntarily get vaccinated, that's one less person contributing to the beatdown of this thing.

[jrhampt]

IDK why anyone would throw in the towel if they know there is a more contagious, probably more lethal form of the virus spreading.  That makes no sense to me.  If anything, they should be more cautious.  I think it's the unrealistically optimistic people you have to watch out for - the kind who think it's fine to have dinner parties with all their friends because they'll all be fine.

Also, it's perfectly fine to feel sad if your friends are dead and dying.  No one has the right to demand that someone should be positive about that.  I just don't think former player said anything unreasonable.

[RetiredAt63]

IDK why anyone would throw in the towel if they know there is a more contagious, probably more lethal form of the virus spreading.  That makes no sense to me.  If anything, they should be more cautious.  I think it's the unrealistically optimistic people you have to watch out for - the kind who think it's fine to have dinner parties with all their friends because they'll all be fine.

Also, it's perfectly fine to feel sad if your friends are dead and dying.  No one has the right to demand that someone should be positive about that.  I just don't think former player said anything unreasonable.

Or the youngish people who think it will be mild for them, no big deal.

[Jon Bon]

Sure looks like the US is starting to reach early levels of heard immunity. So that at least is good news. Somewhere between 100-150M people have gotten it.

I read somewhere that vaccines usually come when the diseases are already in decline and end up being the nail in the coffin.

Where do we go from here? I think we will just start calling it "flu C"

[jrhampt]

Depends on what the actual number of cases is (confirmed is only around 26 million although I'm sure it is actually much higher) and where herd immunity starts.  100M people is less than a third of the total US population.

[chemistk]

IDK why anyone would throw in the towel if they know there is a more contagious, probably more lethal form of the virus spreading.  That makes no sense to me.  If anything, they should be more cautious.  I think it's the unrealistically optimistic people you have to watch out for - the kind who think it's fine to have dinner parties with all their friends because they'll all be fine.

Also, it's perfectly fine to feel sad if your friends are dead and dying.  No one has the right to demand that someone should be positive about that.  I just don't think former player said anything unreasonable.

You would think that, and yet it happens daily. The approach some take to such news is "I accept my fate and will no longer do anything to prevent it from occurring".

Also I would like to make myself crystal clear - I am not demanding anything of former player or others who have a similar mindset. If my comments come across as such, I apologize and this should serve as a clarification. Emotions are never meant to be stuffed away because they go against the desired sentiment.

Former player asked a question ("happy people, what's your answer on covid-19?") and I offered my perspective.

However, I will label someone as being 'unreasonable' if all they wish to do is be sad and fearful, and to avoid contradicting what I said two sentences ago, in this instance I mean it as one who will ONLY be sad and fearful, who will avoid listening to counterarguments - that is belligerent self-serving behavior that has no place in a conversation. If the only reaction you can take from the news of death, side effects, vax efficacy, mutations, and the global outlook over the next 12-36 months is to be angry and upset, you as an individual should find a way to deal with that unchecked, unfiltered pessimism or to keep it off the public discourse. Note I am not addressing you, former player, or anyone in particular when I say that.

And I firmly agree with your "optimistic people" comment, those types always give me the skeeves.

[Longwaytogo]

IDK why anyone would throw in the towel if they know there is a more contagious, probably more lethal form of the virus spreading.  That makes no sense to me.  If anything, they should be more cautious.  I think it's the unrealistically optimistic people you have to watch out for - the kind who think it's fine to have dinner parties with all their friends because they'll all be fine.

It may not make sense but its defintley happening; Maybe like a lost cause feeling.

I think in November with news of the Vaccine a lot of people had this "alright lets just hunker down a few more months"

But then all the news of Vaccine delays, worse strands, etc. People are just running out of patience/willpower and throwing thier hands up.

I've heard more people with "we're all gonna get it anyway may as well get it over with" attitude in the last two weeks then probaly the prior 6 months combined.

To be clear I'm not saying that I'm tbrowing it the towel; just that I've seen a lot of it.

[dandarc]

I'd buy that if this very thread had not started within about 3 days of anything resembling restrictions in the US. There never was any patience from far too many people.

[Longwaytogo]

I'd buy that if this very thread had not started within about 3 days of anything resembling restrictions in the US. There never was any patience from far too many people.

Sure, some people.

But I'm not talking about Anti maskers or people not taking it seriously the whole time. I'm talking about folks who HAVE been towing the line who are ready to give up.

If you haven't seen a shift thats cool; just sharing my own observations and wondering if others had seen the same.

[Davnasty]

Sure looks like the US is starting to reach early levels of heard immunity. So that at least is good news. Somewhere between 100-150M people have gotten it.

I read somewhere that vaccines usually come when the diseases are already in decline and end up being the nail in the coffin.

Where do we go from here? I think we will just start calling it "flu C"

"I read somewhere" is not a reliable citation. There haven't been nearly enough pandemics and subsequent vaccines ending them to make such a claim.

Can you provide citation for your 100-150M figure?

ETA: CDC estimates 83.1 million infections as of 1/15/21

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

[Shane]

Agree that, just recently, many more people seem to be throwing in the towel and, basically, giving up on social distancing guidelines, I guess because of all the doom and gloom news about the new variants the media has been spreading. It makes zero sense to me. If anything, our family is being much more careful, now that we know effective vaccines are on the way, than we were earlier.

[GuitarStv]

If anything, our family is being much more careful, now that we know effective vaccines are on the way, than we were earlier.

Yep.  Doom and gloom means take things more seriously, not say 'fuck it' and welcome the reaper.

[Longwaytogo]

If anything, our family is being much more careful, now that we know effective vaccines are on the way, than we were earlier.

Yep.  Doom and gloom means take things more seriously, not say 'fuck it' and welcome the reaper.

As with many things I think the media is a big part. You or I may spend hours a week (unfortunately) reading up on and following this stuff.

Someone else may hear a soundbite on the radio "new variants vaccine resistant" and thier feeling of helplessness takes over: fuck it we're screwed may as well enjoy it while I can.

-----------

Anyhow; hopefully what I'm seeing isnt the majority and the US can hold on a couple more months to get the Vaccines rolling :/

I'm optomistic for enjoying the Summer if myself and my loved ones can stay healthy that long.

My in-laws both just received thier first Vaccine shot today in DE; hopefully my parents in MD can get thiers in February.

[HBFIRE]

ETA: CDC estimates 83.1 million infections as of 1/15/21

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

That is promising though ~ 25% of the country.  That's really broad penetration. 22 M have been vaccinated with at least the first shot (not sure how much overlap with those who have already been infected).  We're approaching 1.5 M new vaccinations/day (which will include a % of 2nd vaccinations), so I have to think by april things will be looking very positive.  Hopefully the J&J vaccine will be a game changer requiring only one shot, that could really speed things up if the efficacy is reasonably high.   I do wonder at what penetration rate we'll see a very noticeable decline in transmission before reaching statistical herd immunity.  Maybe we're not far from that point.

[Shane]

If anything, our family is being much more careful, now that we know effective vaccines are on the way, than we were earlier.

Yep.  Doom and gloom means take things more seriously, not say 'fuck it' and welcome the reaper.

As with many things I think the media is a big part. You or I may spend hours a week (unfortunately) reading up on and following this stuff.

Someone else may hear a soundbite on the radio "new variants vaccine resistant" and thier feeling of helplessness takes over: fuck it we're screwed may as well enjoy it while I can.

-----------

Anyhow; hopefully what I'm seeing isnt the majority and the US can hold on a couple more months to get the Vaccines rolling :/

I'm optomistic for enjoying the Summer if myself and my loved ones can stay healthy that long.

My in-laws both just received thier first Vaccine shot today in DE; hopefully my parents in MD can get thiers in February.

In our case, anyway, the 'doom and gloom' being propagated by the media isn't what's motivating us to be more careful. If it weren't for the fact that two highly effective vaccines have recently been approved and are in the process of being distributed, giving up and just hoping for the best might make more sense, but not now, when help is on the way. Catching Coronavirus now would be like getting killed in the last days of a war. I'm also optimistic about, hopefully, being able to more freely enjoy summer, after getting vaccinated.

[waltworks]

61 million/19% of the people in the US are 14 and under, as well. They are effectively not at risk. I'd guess we have the remaining willing folks vaccinated by early summer at the latest. Add that to people who have already been infected... you'll be able to hit the free concert series at the park. At least that's what I'd bet on.

-W

[jrhampt]

I'm betting summer will be a lot better, too.  We just have to make it until then, so now is no time to get careless.  Looking at the weekly coronavirus update thread in Off Topic the UK numbers are eye watering, and they're ahead of us on vaccinating their population. 

[HBFIRE]

I'm betting summer will be a lot better, too.  We just have to make it until then, so now is no time to get careless.  Looking at the weekly coronavirus update thread in Off Topic the UK numbers are eye watering, and they're ahead of us on vaccinating their population.

At least according to these stats, looks like the UK is declining rapidly in new cases.  Deaths of course are a lagging indicator.

[charis]

I'm feeling very optimistic about my own sphere as well.  More than half my immediate family will be fully vaccinated by mid-Feb (not including the kids) and a good number of close friends, including those who already are.   I should qualify in the 1c category but who knows when that will be happening. Not planning to drop any precautions but feeling more hopeful about late spring and early summer.

[Paper Chaser]

ETA: CDC estimates 83.1 million infections as of 1/15/21

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

That is promising though ~ 25% of the country.  That's really broad penetration. 22 M have been vaccinated with at least the first shot (not sure how much overlap with those who have already been infected).  We're approaching 1.5 M new vaccinations/day (which will include a % of 2nd vaccinations), so I have to think by april things will be looking very positive.  Hopefully the J&J vaccine will be a game changer requiring only one shot, that could really speed things up if the efficacy is reasonably high.   I do wonder at what penetration rate we'll see a very noticeable decline in transmission before reaching statistical herd immunity.  Maybe we're not far from that point.

On a national level, "Cases" have been dropping like a rock from their peak on Jan 11, while the 7 day moving average peaked a few days prior on Jan 8th.

https://covidtracking.com/data/national/chart-tables/#chart-table-new-cases

But something really changed in some regions before the vaccine was even available. The Midwest as a whole started seeing pretty noticeable declines as early as November of last year, and were just offset by lots of spread in other places, notably CA. Thanksgiving Holiday reporting inconsistency makes it tough to really pinpoint, but confirmed cases in my state peaked some time during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend Nov 26-30, Hospitalizations peaked Dec 1 and had dropped 23% by Jan 8th when cases peaked nationally, and deaths peaked Dec 14 (Same day that the first dose of COVID vaccine administered in the US) and had dropped 43% by Jan 8.

I think the vaccines are absolutely helping, but I think there's still something that we don't really understand about this virus, or our estimates for total infections are way too conservative.

[RetiredAt63]

I feel like the pessimist/optimist dichotomy is like the glass half empty/full dichotomy.  I am going for realistic.  My reality is that some hospitals (Toront area) are transferring patients, hospitals everywhere are close to capacity, we know the B117 variant is here, so lets be sensible and stay healthy until vaccines and spring arrive.