Author Topic: Housing is a terrible investment.  (Read 14490 times)

Bateaux

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Housing is a terrible investment.
« on: August 16, 2016, 02:52:32 AM »
Housing is a terrible investment.   Don't burden yourself with expensive housing.   I'm living in my flooded home right now.  I'm on the second floor right now the first floor has 8 feet of water in it.  Yesterday the second floor had several inches of water.  We have flood insurance but that will only pay a portion of the damages.   We worked like crazy trying to save all the crap we've bought over the years.  Most is lost now anyway.  Keep life simple.  Rent or borrow things that you don't need everyday.  Keep life simple.  Live in the cheapest home you can get by with.   Flood, fire, wind... can take all that worldly crap in a day.   Wouldn't you really rather go hiking anyway.  Keep Louisiana in your thoughts.  So many who mortgaged their life for a building have lost it all.  Luckily were debt free and have a less expensive home than most.  We'll recover from this because of our frugality.   No debt, good income and I saved my tools from flooding.  I built almost all of it, I'll build it back.  But I have to cancel my hiking trip for now.

UKMustache

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 03:19:30 AM »
I think your situation highlights that it's a bad idea to live anywhere that could flood.

We're 130 meters (428 feet) above sea level on the side of a hill.  If I ever had reason to be concerned about my house flooding most of Europe would be underwater so I'd likely have more urgent concerns than my possessions.

You certainly can't prevent disaster from occurring but you can mitigate the risk.


I wish you all the best in rebuilding, I apologise if the above comes across as harsh.  I just found the OP a tad defeatist, Louisiana has a well documented history of flooding and / or hurricanes so if you buy a house there it shouldn't be surprising when those things happen.

pancakes

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 03:32:13 AM »
I'm sorry to hear of your plight OP.

I've rented in a property with a history of flooding (apartment building, on a floor well above flood level). I would rent in that location again because the convenience was just too good but I'd never buy into a strata building that has a flood history.

A house maybe I would if the house was suited to it. Some houses where I lived stood up very well to flooding (the source of the flood means we had 2+ days warning so plenty of time to get things to higher ground) and others were trashed. Generally those houses built or modified just after the previous flood did well, those built or modified in the last 10 years were trashed.

In the 70's after the previous flood lots of people elevated their homes so their living areas would be above the flood line.  Then they changed owners and the new owners built in underneath thinking it would never happen again.

human

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 05:36:03 AM »
I'm sorry to hear that the house you built is destroyed. I hope you and your family are ok.

golden1

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 05:45:15 AM »
I'm so sorry your house flooded.  We had our basement flood about a decade ago and it was a mess.  I can't imagine if our whole house went under.  The longer I live in my house, the more I tend to agree with you.  I think once my kids are gone, we are condo or townhouse bound.  I just flat out don't like all the work and money to maintain a home. 

Fishindude

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 05:47:20 AM »
Best of luck getting things repaired & cleaned up.

By the River

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 07:38:41 AM »
Good luck with the clean up.  I spent a lot of time growing up out on the Amite River and Diversion Canal and have friends and family in the same boat as you.  Probably will spend time the next few weekends out there again. 

dodojojo

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2016, 08:17:54 AM »
Think about California and it's overheated real estate...and then remember it's earthquake country and the region is way, way overdue for a big one.

Slee_stack

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2016, 08:27:55 AM »
I've never had a flooded or other seriously damaged house.

Still, I'm not a huge proponent of owning a primary residence.  I'm indifferent towards own vs rent and suggest choosing what makes more sense financially, weighing the risks/inconveniences of each as well as the transactional costs.

As experienced by the OP, a home can turn out to be the exact opposite of the (incorrectly assumed) American 'Dream'.  It can just as likely become an albatross.






tyleriam

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2016, 08:42:46 AM »
You don't have to live in a flood zone to have issues with water.

My first house was brand new on a pond.  I bought new because I figured...no problems with a new house I have a warranty.  Over the next year I discovered the hill in the front yard was a problem it got water from neighbors yards during heavy rain and eventually discovered there was a spring in the hill.  Spent $25K regrading front yard and building a retaining wall with french drains to keep the front yard from turning into a pond.  Oh and after about 18 months the 450' asphalt driveway started cracking so had to pay the builder's cost of asphalt to redo it, $5K.  Sold the house for $5K more than I paid for it 3 years later. 

The joys of home ownership.

I lived in an apartment before that, woke up one morning and saw the dishwasher had flooded the kitchen.  I reached over, got my cereal and called the landlord and told them to come check it out, then left for work.  When I got home from work they had cleaned up the water, replaced the dishwasher and had fans on it and wrote me an apology note.  The next day they picked up the fans when it was all dry.

nereo

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2016, 08:49:30 AM »
Sorry to hear about your home, but glad to hear that you and your family are safe.
A good reminder that the things that matter aren't usually things.

LivlongnProsper

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2016, 08:56:50 AM »
Homeownership certainly has its pitfalls. I have had issues with the roof on two houses, two septic systems, ants, mice, a hole in the floor, water coming up to my front door, wasps and the occasional hot water heater blowing up. Like OP frugality helped deal with issues big and small including paying 12k cash for a new septic system. Some days I really think hard about how great it is to be a homeowner.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2016, 08:58:35 AM »
I was about to ask if you had time to move the valuable things upstairs before realizing both floors were hit. That's some serious flooding.

I am sorry you and your neighbors have to deal with this. There are people right now who must be thanking their lucky stars that they got turned down for a mortgage and remained renters.

Northwestie

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2016, 09:13:52 AM »
Buying a house in a poor area - subject to wildfire, landslides, or flooding is a poor investment -- would be a better way to state it.  Having worked with FEMA on public assistance projects, I've been out on countless post-flood surveys where bridges, roads, and houses have been washed away.  The most common comment I hear is "It has never flooded here before".

Well - let's just say that the human experience is brief compared to geologic time.  I tell friends who are buy a house to make sure they check several items: FEMA flood maps, landslide maps, wetland/stream maps, USGS soil survey.

Even outside the FEMA 1% flood zone there can be a strong possibility of flooding depending on the terrain and historic river patterns, nearby development, and the added curve ball of climate change.  My first suggestion would be not to buy ocean front property and if you have it get rid of it now while you can.

Best of luck to LA - it looks pretty grim.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2016, 09:48:01 AM »
I'm sorry to hear about that, Bateaux. My brother-in-law has just finished a complete tear-out and re-model on his home in SC from the floods there last summer. There was about 4' of standing water in his single-story house. Far less than what you're dealing with. I worked in east Louisiana and SW Mississippi for 3-1/2 years, so I have plenty of friends in that area with a lot of work on their hands. Best of luck.

Wilson Hall

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2016, 10:14:27 AM »
Bateaux, I am so sorry for your loss. As I understand it, many of the areas that flooded in LA had never flooded before; hence, most homeowners believed flood insurance was unnecessary. 100,000+ homes lost to flooding is staggering. I am appalled that the media have not given this crisis more attention.


Cranky

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2016, 10:54:30 AM »
I'm sorry - what a mess that is! When my parents lived in Slidell, it only took a day's rain to make some of the streets impassable.

I like my little house, but I definitely don't think it's an investment. It wasn't very expensive and it's nice to live in. Also, it's 1000 feet about sea level. Cold in the winter here, though!

MishMash

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2016, 11:34:11 AM »
just adding to the you don't need to be near water for the house to flood beyond repair.  I lived in CO,  6000 feet above sea level, the closest river, lake, pond etc was 50 miles away.  The entire development flooded, hell pretty much a good chunk of the city did, due to an epic rain storm.  The storm drains physically couldn't handle the amount of water that came down in such a short period of time and the ground was so saturated it couldn't absorb the rain fast enough.  That's quite similar to what happened with the OPs flooding this past weekend.  Now we only had to contend with inches, not 8 feet but we were still 6k above sea level with no water bodies around.  Pretty much the prime instance of "oh my house will never flood"

Heck 3 weeks ago in MD Ellicot City flooded to what was called a 1 in 1000 year event too.

Jrr85

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2016, 12:35:58 PM »
I think your situation highlights that it's a bad idea to live anywhere that could flood.

That's basically most places though.  It's easy enough to tell when you're in a floodplain, but there are lots of places where a 500 year rain event will cause flooding where you would think it would be just about impossible. 

MoneyCat

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2016, 12:46:36 PM »
Prayers for everyone in Louisiana. When I purchased my house, I made sure it was not in a floodplain and made sure it was far enough from the river and on high enough ground that we should never (knock on wood) have to worry about that kind of problem. It's tough, though, because a lot of people can only afford riskier housing. There's no such thing as completely risk-free housing, though, as a lot of people in our state learned when we got hit by Hurricane Sandy.

I still think that owning your home is much better than renting, but there can definitely be downsides at times.

Northwestie

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2016, 12:57:21 PM »
just adding to the you don't need to be near water for the house to flood beyond repair.  I lived in CO,  6000 feet above sea level, the closest river, lake, pond etc was 50 miles away.  The entire development flooded, hell pretty much a good chunk of the city did, due to an epic rain storm.  The storm drains physically couldn't handle the amount of water that came down in such a short period of time and the ground was so saturated it couldn't absorb the rain fast enough.  That's quite similar to what happened with the OPs flooding this past weekend.  Now we only had to contend with inches, not 8 feet but we were still 6k above sea level with no water bodies around.  Pretty much the prime instance of "oh my house will never flood"

Heck 3 weeks ago in MD Ellicot City flooded to what was called a 1 in 1000 year event too.

I'm nowhere near a river and my house is up 10 ft from the street - and we are on a plateau.  So it will never flood.  But there is that Cascadia subduction zone quake hanging out there.   I earthquake retrofitted the house  but if the 9.0 shows up all bets are off.

MishMash

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2016, 01:06:57 PM »
just adding to the you don't need to be near water for the house to flood beyond repair.  I lived in CO,  6000 feet above sea level, the closest river, lake, pond etc was 50 miles away.  The entire development flooded, hell pretty much a good chunk of the city did, due to an epic rain storm.  The storm drains physically couldn't handle the amount of water that came down in such a short period of time and the ground was so saturated it couldn't absorb the rain fast enough.  That's quite similar to what happened with the OPs flooding this past weekend.  Now we only had to contend with inches, not 8 feet but we were still 6k above sea level with no water bodies around.  Pretty much the prime instance of "oh my house will never flood"

Heck 3 weeks ago in MD Ellicot City flooded to what was called a 1 in 1000 year event too.

I'm nowhere near a river and my house is up 10 ft from the street - and we are on a plateau.  So it will never flood.  But there is that Cascadia subduction zone quake hanging out there.   I earthquake retrofitted the house  but if the 9.0 shows up all bets are off.

We were 8.5 feet from the street (and not near any bodies of water) on a slightly up angled driveway which is why it was only inches in the house, and mainly hit our basement (window wells we couldn't bail out fast enough) and our garage.  Some of the houses in the area that were closer to the road had significantly more damage and the city actually lost roads due to severe erosion

former player

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2016, 02:04:19 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk, and even where there is risk-free room it is often more expensive than most can afford.

Bateaux, I'm sorry to hear of your troubles.  I've seen a bit of the Louisiana flooding on the BBC, but not enough to comprehend the scale of the catastrophe, and your personal situation brings that home to me.

Simpli-Fi

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2016, 02:48:27 PM »
Sorry to hear about this, I have a lot of friends and family there with water in there houses as well.  It's crazy how there was no waning for this until it was too late.  My thoughts are with you guys.

MishMash

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2016, 04:21:08 PM »
As a side note Bateaux, please let us know if there are some things you or any of your neighbors need immedietely that we can send on over to help out, it's one of those times Amazon Prime can come in handy.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #25 on: August 16, 2016, 05:02:25 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.

OP: Sorry for your loss.  I hope your change in perspective brings comfort.

Eric

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2016, 05:20:12 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #27 on: August 16, 2016, 05:47:19 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Texas has many natural disasters. There may be areas in the world where there are much fewer risks though.

bobechs

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #28 on: August 16, 2016, 06:05:05 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Texas has many natural disasters. There may be areas in the world where there are much fewer risks though.

Like a hillside in England.

'Cuz gravity works different there...

Goldielocks

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #29 on: August 16, 2016, 06:28:44 PM »
Bateaux.

I hope you can draw your friends and family near, and be safe.

It can take a while to get insurance and flooding sorted out (sometimes you are out of home for months).   Take a break, then maybe the hiking trip is still the best choice to get a break from it (after all is secure) and come back refreshed.

My good wishes are with you and your neighbors.

nereo

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #30 on: August 16, 2016, 07:09:00 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Texas has many natural disasters. There may be areas in the world where there are much fewer risks though.

I'm baffled at what you're trying to say here Metric Mouse.  That natural disasters don't constitute 'risk'? (a bit ironic given the OP's plight)
That the world would be better off if ~7B people lived in Texas and everywhere else was devoid of humans? 
... your comments have me so confused...

Bateaux

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #31 on: August 16, 2016, 08:07:34 PM »
My point about housing is don't look at it as an investment.   Don't buy a McMansion.  Find affordable and comfortable housing.  We only paid $52.000 for this house.  Much more invested but still pretty cheap.   My neighbor has water in his million dollar home  next door.   Much of his NW is tied to that house.  He planned to sell it next year.  What is is worth now?

MilesTeg

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #32 on: August 16, 2016, 08:31:55 PM »
I sympathize with your situation, but I disagree with your (sorry, emotional) response.

There are very, very few investments as good as real estate. No investment is without risk, and unlike a lot of other types of investments, you can actually insure a real estate investment. Yes, this will cost you a lot, but you'll still have the bulk of what you invested. And, depending on the exact circumstances, you might still come out ahead even!

Ask your insurance agent if they will ensure the majority of the value of your stocks, bonds, etc. =)

Take the typical "best investment" strategy from MMM: index funds. Index funds are also a good investment, but certainly not immune to risk (just ask the people in 08-09 who owned index funds!).


CopperTex

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #33 on: August 16, 2016, 09:20:59 PM »
Sorry for your situation OP. We are about 45 mins east of the flood zone and this lesson has opened my eyes to flood insurance. I will be taking out a policy this week.

Erica

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #34 on: August 16, 2016, 10:42:34 PM »
I am so sorry, that is so traumatic.

I live in California yet an earthquake which could destroy my home would blow my mind. We just don't have those here even if this State is known for it. It surprised me to be reminded of such in this thread

clarkfan1979

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #35 on: August 17, 2016, 01:40:01 AM »
I am pretty sure there was 18 inches of water in my basement about 10 years before I bought my first rental house. There was a well documented flood in the city and when I bought the house there was a water line on the drywall about 18 inches high around the entire basement. I think they got the water out quick enough that they didn't even replace the drywall.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #36 on: August 17, 2016, 11:07:57 AM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Texas has many natural disasters. There may be areas in the world where there are much fewer risks though.

I'm baffled at what you're trying to say here Metric Mouse.  That natural disasters don't constitute 'risk'? (a bit ironic given the OP's plight)
That the world would be better off if ~7B people lived in Texas and everywhere else was devoid of humans? 
... your comments have me so confused...

I did not suggest living in Texas. You may wish to re-read my comments if you believe that, because it is clearly not the case. The point was that there are plenty of places to live with lower risk of natural disasters than where many people currently live, and that available space is absolutely not a limiting factor for low-risk housing.

Jon_Snow

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #37 on: August 17, 2016, 11:19:26 AM »
OP, I am very sorry for what's happened to you. I have been following the situation in Louisiana on our news.

But I disagree with such a blanket statement such as the one in your thread title. For some of us, the purchase of real estate is probably the best investment we have ever made in our lives. I would count myself amongst this group. Timing and location can mean EVERTHING.

Northwestie

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #38 on: August 17, 2016, 11:26:00 AM »
The risk factor in land use planning plays out in many ways and floodplains are a good example.  Some say that the National Flood Insurance Plan (NFIP) actually encourages - or at least doesn't discourage strongly enough, building in floodplains. 

This varies wildly among counties/cities across the US.  While there are minimum standards for participation in the NFIP local land use planning and enforcement can be strict or barely existing.  And in southern states where there is a strong land owner rights philosophy many folks just ignore the rules and there is not a robust regulatory structure.

People don't want to hear "you can't build here, it's not safe".   But -- when the flood comes and they have no flood insurance they are begging for government intrusion.

Interestingly, about 6 years ago Congress actually stepped in and amended the NFIP and required risk-based fees from home-owners.  Thus, if you lived in a more risky environment, say coastal NC,  then you would pay more for insurance.  Except when home owners really squawked about no longer getting subsidized rates in FL and other SE coastal states - those senators when back, and yes, changed the rules back.  Too classic.

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Helvegen

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #40 on: August 17, 2016, 12:48:27 PM »
http://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/05/29/why-your-house-is-a-terrible-investment/

I thought that was what this thread was going to be about from title alone!

I'm sorry about your house, OP. :(

former player

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #41 on: August 17, 2016, 01:10:29 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Texas has many natural disasters. There may be areas in the world where there are much fewer risks though.

I'm baffled at what you're trying to say here Metric Mouse.  That natural disasters don't constitute 'risk'? (a bit ironic given the OP's plight)
That the world would be better off if ~7B people lived in Texas and everywhere else was devoid of humans? 
... your comments have me so confused...

I did not suggest living in Texas. You may wish to re-read my comments if you believe that, because it is clearly not the case. The point was that there are plenty of places to live with lower risk of natural disasters than where many people currently live, and that available space is absolutely not a limiting factor for low-risk housing.

One of the guiding principles of mustachianism is living near one's work, and work isn't necessarily either where one would choose or where is safest.  Some disaster-prone areas produce much of the food humans eat (mid-west tornados) and need workers to live close. Chemical plants (which I think is something like Bateaux's area of expertise) need to be near the site of oil production, which may happen to be a river delta.   IT jobs may happen to be on an earthquake fault.  One individual doesn't have much control over these things.  And increases in extreme weather events are making previously untouched areas subject to problems which would not have been apparent when older houses, or even newer houses were constructed.  So no, not everyone can live somewhere safe, because a place without food to eat or money to buy it with isn't safe, and those things can only be acquired for most people by accepting some level of risk.

I hope Bateaux is safe and will be able to evacuate himself and his family before life becomes impossible in his flooded house.

MilesTeg

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #42 on: August 17, 2016, 03:49:07 PM »
http://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/05/29/why-your-house-is-a-terrible-investment/

That's pretty much a perfect example of selective analysis gone horribly wrong. You can't completely ignore things like

* You have to live somewhere, and a stock, bond, etc. make very poor housing. Rent is often higher than a mortgage (see #2)
* If you don't have to live there, someone else can pay all the costs for you making it a BRILLIANT investment.

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #43 on: August 17, 2016, 03:58:32 PM »
I'm so sorry to hear of your plight. I've been concerned about rioting and looting, a repeat of the post-Katrina nightmare. So far that doesn't seem to have been happening. But I suppose this is a horribly emotionally draining time for you and your family.

Jrr85

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #44 on: August 17, 2016, 04:35:14 PM »
The risk factor in land use planning plays out in many ways and floodplains are a good example.  Some say that the National Flood Insurance Plan (NFIP) actually encourages - or at least doesn't discourage strongly enough, building in floodplains. 
  It definitely doesn't discourage it enough.  Really shouldn't have gotten in the business of having a NFIP.

This varies wildly among counties/cities across the US.  While there are minimum standards for participation in the NFIP local land use planning and enforcement can be strict or barely existing.  And in southern states where there is a strong land owner rights philosophy many folks just ignore the rules and there is not a robust regulatory structure.
   Enforcement is strict or barely existing based on how much interest the NFIP takes.  You're generally not going to see a known, floodprone area get a lot of leeway from NFIP. 

People don't want to hear "you can't build here, it's not safe".   But -- when the flood comes and they have no flood insurance they are begging for government intrusion.

Interestingly, about 6 years ago Congress actually stepped in and amended the NFIP and required risk-based fees from home-owners.  Thus, if you lived in a more risky environment, say coastal NC,  then you would pay more for insurance.  Except when home owners really squawked about no longer getting subsidized rates in FL and other SE coastal states - those senators when back, and yes, changed the rules back.  Too classic.

Well, to be a little more nuanced, NFIP/FEMA put out BFE's and told people sure, go ahead and build here, just build higher than BFE.  Then they raised BFE in a lot of places by as much as 4 or 5 feet.  Then they said, hey, a lot of you are now 2 feet below BFE, your new flood insurance will be about 1/27th of the cost of your coverage annually.  And then the people flipped out because their house that had flooded once in 70 years would now cost $9000 per year to insure for flood.  And THEN (this is probably the important part), the banks said, "wow.  Kind of funny that you just spent a trillion dollars to bail us out just to have us go under because the NFIP has lost $25B over it's four decades of existence, which is roughly what you spend each  year on farm subsidies.  At that point, most of the reforms were rolled back. 

Again, I think it probably would have been better to not have a federal flood program to begin with (although maybe if we'd just end up doing bailouts with grant money anyway this has actually reduced the cost), but it was absolutely asinine to try to change it where in a way that would cause millions of people to get foreclosed on.  It wasn't going to be politically feasible to cause the people who had been flooded once in 70 years that they have records to be foreclosed on, much less the people that hadn't been flooded at all.

Jrr85

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #45 on: August 17, 2016, 04:38:14 PM »
There isn't enough room on the planet for everyone to live where there is no risk.

False.  The population of the planet could fit comfortably inside an area the size of Texas.


Ah yes, good ol' Texas, the land of zero natural disasters.  Never a tornado, hurricane, nor flood will it ever see.

Texas has many natural disasters. There may be areas in the world where there are much fewer risks though.

I'm baffled at what you're trying to say here Metric Mouse.  That natural disasters don't constitute 'risk'? (a bit ironic given the OP's plight)
That the world would be better off if ~7B people lived in Texas and everywhere else was devoid of humans? 
... your comments have me so confused...

I did not suggest living in Texas. You may wish to re-read my comments if you believe that, because it is clearly not the case. The point was that there are plenty of places to live with lower risk of natural disasters than where many people currently live, and that available space is absolutely not a limiting factor for low-risk housing.

There is a reason 40% of the country lives in a county on a coast line and no telling what percentage lives near navigable water.  It's not feasible for everyone to live in non-disaster prone areas, even if there is enough space.

Northwestie

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #46 on: August 17, 2016, 04:55:50 PM »
The risk factor in land use planning plays out in many ways and floodplains are a good example.  Some say that the National Flood Insurance Plan (NFIP) actually encourages - or at least doesn't discourage strongly enough, building in floodplains. 
  It definitely doesn't discourage it enough.  Really shouldn't have gotten in the business of having a NFIP.

This varies wildly among counties/cities across the US.  While there are minimum standards for participation in the NFIP local land use planning and enforcement can be strict or barely existing.  And in southern states where there is a strong land owner rights philosophy many folks just ignore the rules and there is not a robust regulatory structure.
   Enforcement is strict or barely existing based on how much interest the NFIP takes.  You're generally not going to see a known, floodprone area get a lot of leeway from NFIP. 

People don't want to hear "you can't build here, it's not safe".   But -- when the flood comes and they have no flood insurance they are begging for government intrusion.

Interestingly, about 6 years ago Congress actually stepped in and amended the NFIP and required risk-based fees from home-owners.  Thus, if you lived in a more risky environment, say coastal NC,  then you would pay more for insurance.  Except when home owners really squawked about no longer getting subsidized rates in FL and other SE coastal states - those senators when back, and yes, changed the rules back.  Too classic.

Well, to be a little more nuanced, NFIP/FEMA put out BFE's and told people sure, go ahead and build here, just build higher than BFE.  Then they raised BFE in a lot of places by as much as 4 or 5 feet.  Then they said, hey, a lot of you are now 2 feet below BFE, your new flood insurance will be about 1/27th of the cost of your coverage annually.  And then the people flipped out because their house that had flooded once in 70 years would now cost $9000 per year to insure for flood.  And THEN (this is probably the important part), the banks said, "wow.  Kind of funny that you just spent a trillion dollars to bail us out just to have us go under because the NFIP has lost $25B over it's four decades of existence, which is roughly what you spend each  year on farm subsidies.  At that point, most of the reforms were rolled back. 

Again, I think it probably would have been better to not have a federal flood program to begin with (although maybe if we'd just end up doing bailouts with grant money anyway this has actually reduced the cost), but it was absolutely asinine to try to change it where in a way that would cause millions of people to get foreclosed on.  It wasn't going to be politically feasible to cause the people who had been flooded once in 70 years that they have records to be foreclosed on, much less the people that hadn't been flooded at all.

The NFIP is implemented locally and "supposed to" be then enforced thru the checks with the local communities.  All good in theory, but not practicality.  The NFIP was set up as an insurance program, not a land use program.  FEMA does not get directly involved in floodplain permits issued by local authorities.  I've seen it many, many times.  A county with minimal standards does not have the resources to go check what is going on - their records show not much development in the floodplain  but whoops!   Not quite accurate.

Yea - I would agree - those folks living in risky areas got a bit surprise - but WTF!  I don't want their risky life choice to be subsidized by my tax dollars.  Screw that!

So instead of paying market rates for flood insurance they get to continue to feed at the public welfare trough.   Sure, maybe the were flooded once in 70 years.  And yea, floodplains change - they are not static entities - particularly with dynamic river systems, development, and climate change.   I still think folks in floodplains should be paying fair market value for the risk they are taking and not depend on the rest of the public to foot their bill.

And interestingly  - the NFIP was in the black until Katrina busted the bank and exposed the stupid pricing system.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2016, 04:58:19 PM by Northwestie »

stoaX

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #47 on: August 17, 2016, 05:07:33 PM »
I rent now but owned homes for 29 years.  My intial downpayment turned into over 24 times the original amount when I sold for the last time.  But after subtracting out interest payments net of tax deductions, property taxes (again net of income tax deductions), realtor commissions, closing costs and lots and lots of maintenance costs, it all came out to about a 5% to 6% return per year.  I did not include my own labor costs.  While it sounds like a successful investment, index funds would probably have been a better investment and required less work. 

My experience is just one person's story, but it is 29 years of anecdotal evidence that tells me that while there are many good reasons to own a home, investment return is not one of them.

I wish you all the best in your efforts to rebuild.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #48 on: August 17, 2016, 05:31:30 PM »
Housing is a really bad investment.  It is marginally ok because you can leverage your money and sometimes get the government to help you when the leverage goes wrong.

Sure there are people in certain markets who have seen huge gains, but there are others who are still underwater (sorry OP, no pun intended).   It is similar to the stock market.   You have certain sectors which have greatly outperformed the market (biotech) over the past few years and others (oil) which are worse than a rundown tiny house on Baltic Avenue.   I don't put much value in those that say "oh but my southern California home is worth $400,000 more than I paid for it" when I can say "I bought Tesla at $20 a share and now it is $200."  They got lucky, I got lucky (no I didn't buy Tesla at $20 damnit).

MilesTeg

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Re: Housing is a terrible investment.
« Reply #49 on: August 17, 2016, 05:59:01 PM »
Housing is a really bad investment.  It is marginally ok because you can leverage your money and sometimes get the government to help you when the leverage goes wrong.

Sure there are people in certain markets who have seen huge gains, but there are others who are still underwater (sorry OP, no pun intended).   It is similar to the stock market.   You have certain sectors which have greatly outperformed the market (biotech) over the past few years and others (oil) which are worse than a rundown tiny house on Baltic Avenue.   I don't put much value in those that say "oh but my southern California home is worth $400,000 more than I paid for it" when I can say "I bought Tesla at $20 a share and now it is $200."  They got lucky, I got lucky (no I didn't buy Tesla at $20 damnit).

The right comparison would be:

"I bought Tesla and pull out money monthly to cover my rent"

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!