Have You survived through a Crash With Vanguard and what did it look like?

[soccerluvof4]

This might seem like a dumb question but never-the-less I want to ask it because I want to hear from you guys.

So couple times a week I look at my Vanguard and on the first page when I login in it says your sucess rate based on your withdrawal is on course and 99% success till wife reaches age 100. So based on that probably higher than that because we have some other income that isn't into there equation.


But using just the Vanguard page and forget any other income. IF/ well when the market crashes do you login and it says you are off tract now? or is it some how built in?

I guess my point is if you have 2 Million invested and do the 4% withdrawal and don't touch it it still grows like the Trump Bump but if all of a sudden you have a big drop like 50% while I wouldn't go back to work or anything and probably buy will it say that I am off course. Because otherwise its only predicting when things are on the uptick no?

How do you think and adjust for that? I keep more cash than most people on here which is in my VMMXX fund I believe its called to last me 3-4 years and to put some in the market on sale but other than the obvious that you can withdrawal less I guess if I am explaining my question right while back tested and ya de da is it not only good when its good?

Don't beat me up on this , some of this might be the obvious answers but I still wanted peoples thoughts.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't know how many answers you'll get on this board since it skews young, maybe also cross post at Bogleheads (if you haven't already).  From my experience, those projected success %'ages were not all that common back in 2008 and I'd imagine they are pretty narrow since you don't have your entire financial life in each calculator nor do you probably update regularly.  Many of them seem 'proprietary', so you have to read the disclaimers.  I don't have a strong opinion on Vanguard's, but that would be pretty disappointing if you saw the success % change after a collapse and you could just disregard it.  The numbers should be based on all of the available market history, including historical bear markets.  If we get something 'off the charts', like a 75% collapse or 10 year bear market, then you'll probably be disregarding the success % number anyways!

IMHO, you'll probably have better luck sticking with FIRECalc and cFIREsim, updating projections using tax-caster software and social security estimator, keeping up with your state's ACA plans and costs, and doing the work yourself so that you can test scenarios and understand the limitations of the software.

[soccerluvof4]

I don't know how many answers you'll get on this board since it skews young, maybe also cross post at Bogleheads (if you haven't already).  From my experience, those projected success %'ages were not all that common back in 2008 and I'd imagine they are pretty narrow since you don't have your entire financial life in each calculator nor do you probably update regularly.  Many of them seem 'proprietary', so you have to read the disclaimers.  I don't have a strong opinion on Vanguard's, but that would be pretty disappointing if you saw the success % change after a collapse and you could just disregard it.  The numbers should be based on all of the available market history, including historical bear markets.  If we get something 'off the charts', like a 75% collapse or 10 year bear market, then you'll probably be disregarding the success % number anyways!

IMHO, you'll probably have better luck sticking with FIRECalc and cFIREsim, updating projections using tax-caster software and social security estimator, keeping up with your state's ACA plans and costs, and doing the work yourself so that you can test scenarios and understand the limitations of the software.

Yea i agree it be disappointing. I have also heard that Vanguard is even on the conservative side but have nothing to verify that.
I appreciate your insight

[Frankies Girl]

My portfolio is housed at Fido, I'm FIRE going on 4 years (I think?). They have a forecaster program that skews VERY conservative. I think that's how all of them are because most folks that are doing this aren't as good at projecting long range, let alone early retirement calculations. It still says I'm fine through all the dips that I've been aware of. But if I run it on their most conservative settings, there were a few runs during some downtimes (there was a correction a few years ago I think?) that said I'll run out of money.

But this was also with me not changing anything and spending as if I still had the exact same portfolio... so similar to seeing a fast approaching cliff I wouldn't take my foot off the gas at all and go all Thelma and Louise off that sucker because I wouldn't be smart enough to maybe stop spending the extra thousands on travel/stupid stuff...

I was not aware of FIRE during the last crash so no idea how it would have worked at that point, but now I don't even bother running them because it really doesn't figure things correctly for FIRE folks. If I run it on their most conservative (default!) estimations, I'm fine with ridiculous extra spending and end up with like 3 million... but I can change it to be "more optimistic" in long term growth and it says I'm going to have like 100 million dollars at the end of life. :D

[soccerluvof4]

My portfolio is housed at Fido, I'm FIRE going on 4 years (I think?). They have a forecaster program that skews VERY conservative. I think that's how all of them are because most folks that are doing this aren't as good at projecting long range, let alone early retirement calculations. It still says I'm fine through all the dips that I've been aware of. But if I run it on their most conservative settings, there were a few runs during some downtimes (there was a correction a few years ago I think?) that said I'll run out of money.

But this was also with me not changing anything and spending as if I still had the exact same portfolio... so similar to seeing a fast approaching cliff I wouldn't take my foot off the gas at all and go all Thelma and Louise off that sucker because I wouldn't be smart enough to maybe stop spending the extra thousands on travel/stupid stuff...

I was not aware of FIRE during the last crash so no idea how it would have worked at that point, but now I don't even bother running them because it really doesn't figure things correctly for FIRE folks. If I run it on their most conservative (default!) estimations, I'm fine with ridiculous extra spending and end up with like 3 million... but I can change it to be "more optimistic" in long term growth and it says I'm going to have like 100 million dollars at the end of life. :D

Yea thats what I thought. We fire'd about  a month apart i see. Hope your enjoying it as I have.

[SwordGuy]

I've experienced the drops at the turn of the millennium and around 2008, though I wasn't using Vanguard at the time.

I just soldiered on and kept working, pumped money in via payroll deductions, and enjoyed it when the market recovered.

I lived thru the 1987 crash but we were dirt poor back then so there were no stock holdings.

Now we're FIRED.   We have enough alternate income streams that I'm not worried about a market drop.

[soccerluvof4]

I've experienced the drops at the turn of the millennium and around 2008, though I wasn't using Vanguard at the time.

I just soldiered on and kept working, pumped money in via payroll deductions, and enjoyed it when the market recovered.

I lived thru the 1987 crash but we were dirt poor back then so there were no stock holdings.

Now we're FIRED.   We have enough alternate income streams that I'm not worried about a market drop.

I remember you saying owner apartments or single family rentals cant remember which. Around me unless your in with the realtors you can find anything I have been trying for 3 years. Other than that havent really been able to find another way to diversify for the reasons you mentioned.