Has FIRE become “spendy”?

[mistymoney]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

that was.....interesting! at first I thought they were building this out to fire into.....but at the end found out they were still years away, and this added an extra year to their timeline...and so was just for vacationing......

so I don't even know what their blog is about now! :P ..... Like we are just doing what we want but have a spread sheet for fire?

[ixtap]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

that was.....interesting! at first I thought they were building this out to fire into.....but at the end found out they were still years away, and this added an extra year to their timeline...and so was just for vacationing......

so I don't even know what their blog is about now! :P ..... Like we are just doing what we want but have a spread sheet for fire?

Is that extra year just to cover the purchase price, or does it include 25x the additional expenses? That could easily be as much as the van itself.

[ChpBstrd]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

that was.....interesting! at first I thought they were building this out to fire into.....but at the end found out they were still years away, and this added an extra year to their timeline...and so was just for vacationing......

so I don't even know what their blog is about now! :P ..... Like we are just doing what we want but have a spread sheet for fire?

Van camping sounds to me a lot like being a long-haul trucker, but paying for it instead of getting paid for it.

[lhamo]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

This. FIRE bloggers make money off of what they've learned during their early lower income FIRE years. Once they have other income from their blogs they spend more. The vast majority of FIREees are silently and successfully living their lives following their original FIRE plans without the need or desire to earn a higher income or spend more. We're a boring bunch to read about and aren't wrestling with the desire to work in order to buy more things or more expensive experiences.

Agreed.  This morning I spent about three hours on gardening stuff.  I remixed potting soil from containers with spent plants and potted up about 25 pepper plants that I started from mostly free seed -- I do buy seed sometimes, but didn't this year as I had plenty of leftovers from previous years + saved seed + free seed packets obtained at different seed swaps.  Containers were also mostly obtained from free sources, though I do have some grow bags that I purchased 2-3 years ago that I am still using.  Since I'm reusing old soil I will need to fertilize, but a bag of organic fertilizer is not that expensive and easier than hauling up compost to my upstairs deck from the backyard bins I keep it in (I can get a couple of cubic yards of free compost from city giveaways every year)

Once it cools off a bit I will throw some more compost on the beds in the backyard that I cleared out in the last 24 hours, and plant the rest of the peppers and some more free seed. 

I typically grow so much nice organic food this way that we can't eat it all, so what I don't preserve I donate to the food bank via my community garden (they do deliveries 3 days/week in the growing season).

I probably spend less than $200 on gardening supplies every year, and it is a hobby that keeps me quite busy from February when I start my first seeds until November when I wrap up the last of the harvest most years.  I actually picked my last raspberries in early December last year.

[frugalecon]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

This. FIRE bloggers make money off of what they've learned during their early lower income FIRE years. Once they have other income from their blogs they spend more. The vast majority of FIREees are silently and successfully living their lives following their original FIRE plans without the need or desire to earn a higher income or spend more. We're a boring bunch to read about and aren't wrestling with the desire to work in order to buy more things or more expensive experiences.

Agreed.  This morning I spent about three hours on gardening stuff.  I remixed potting soil from containers with spent plants and potted up about 25 pepper plants that I started from mostly free seed -- I do buy seed sometimes, but didn't this year as I had plenty of leftovers from previous years + saved seed + free seed packets obtained at different seed swaps.  Containers were also mostly obtained from free sources, though I do have some grow bags that I purchased 2-3 years ago that I am still using.  Since I'm reusing old soil I will need to fertilize, but a bag of organic fertilizer is not that expensive and easier than hauling up compost to my upstairs deck from the backyard bins I keep it in (I can get a couple of cubic yards of free compost from city giveaways every year)

Once it cools off a bit I will throw some more compost on the beds in the backyard that I cleared out in the last 24 hours, and plant the rest of the peppers and some more free seed. 

I typically grow so much nice organic food this way that we can't eat it all, so what I don't preserve I donate to the food bank via my community garden (they do deliveries 3 days/week in the growing season).

I probably spend less than $200 on gardening supplies every year, and it is a hobby that keeps me quite busy from February when I start my first seeds until November when I wrap up the last of the harvest most years.  I actually picked my last raspberries in early December last year.

Wow, super nice. I am also a vegetable gardener, though this year I have my worst garden in many years because I am still working. That is a real tax on being able to spend time on more enjoyable pursuits. There is something deeply satisfying about eating food that I grow myself. If “feeds” me in more ways than one.

[mistymoney]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

that was.....interesting! at first I thought they were building this out to fire into.....but at the end found out they were still years away, and this added an extra year to their timeline...and so was just for vacationing......

so I don't even know what their blog is about now! :P ..... Like we are just doing what we want but have a spread sheet for fire?

Is that extra year just to cover the purchase price, or does it include 25x the additional expenses? That could easily be as much as the van itself.

good point! and not sure....seemed just an aside at the end of the article...

total price was 157,250.22....so putting that into investments......at 4%....that would be an annual budget of $6290 a year for vacations.....

and then at the bottom to answer a question on the article...

So far, camping is usually $15-30 per night.

then I'm guessing gas is going to be an expense......mileage is stated as 19/23 for the vehicle. including the fridege, aircon unit, water stogage as they put a shower in there.....gonna be on the heavy side/lower milage I would think....


to go somewhere 1000 miles away would be about 200 for gas one way....

the deeper I dive, the more crazy it seems!

[ixtap]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

This. FIRE bloggers make money off of what they've learned during their early lower income FIRE years. Once they have other income from their blogs they spend more. The vast majority of FIREees are silently and successfully living their lives following their original FIRE plans without the need or desire to earn a higher income or spend more. We're a boring bunch to read about and aren't wrestling with the desire to work in order to buy more things or more expensive experiences.

Yeah, no we are totally guilty of the last bit, especially after how difficult it was to fight the condensation and mold in an uninsulated boat this past winter. We kept not getting a second heater because how much longer could the odd weather last...

We are still pretty boring to read about and we don't pretend to be the paragons of jack sh!t. Oh, and we aren't wrestling with the decision to work: I think DH is using his dream boat as an excuse to keep working...

[JupiterGreen]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

Whoa, that was a crazy ride!

Perhaps this is the beginning of "late-stage FIRE blogging"

[Ron Scott]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

[Metalcat]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

[Ron Scott]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

[Blackeagle]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

Flexibility and adaptability are going to be much more valuable over that sort of time horizon than an arbitrary SWR.

[MrGreen]

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Well...I did. But I would agree I'm probably the rare exception. And my career was one that you can't go back to once you leave so I set the house on fire on my way out the door. Perhaps we just got lucky. A couple of real estate holdings turned into more money than I thought they would have and we FIREd into a fantastic few years of returns that took our 25x savings to where we are today. And we added a kid to the mix AFTER we quit. I didn't really have a choice though. I knew that my soul was dying.

[BeanCounter]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

All the various simulators indicate that 3% is a VERY safe withdrawal rate for a 50 year timeframe.
But you still have to have a layer of flexibility to deal with the LIFE changes that will happen along the way (not market changes, that’s already baked into the rate).
And yes, I personally would want to be able to cover some “extras” within that 3% budget.

This is basically what we’ve did five years ago at 40 and I modeled it every way I could think of. The flexibility part for us is that my DH has decided to keep working his job at a University for a few more years because of insurance and it gives our children an 80% reduction in tuition. I did RE but take in a bit of contract work that I find interesting and we generally blow all of that money.

[Metalcat]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

This has been talked about to absolute death in the thread about the 4% rule.

Also, we have a few folks here who retired that young and have shared extensively their hedges against the risk of longer retirements.

For some it's having very flexible budgets, for others it's having ultra low withdrawal rates, for others it's keeping up their skills and networks in order to generate income as needed, if needed, etc, etc.

But overall, these aren't dumbfuck naive people who think that saving exactly 25X is a magic bullet that will keep them safe forever spending exactly 4% (+estimated inflation) down to the penny, year after year.

Every single person I've ever seen actually retire in their 30s has been smart as fucking fuck and extremely well prepared for risk.

Those are NOT the people anyone needs to be worrying about.

[Ron Scott]

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

[Dicey]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

Lol, last week, DH and I did a little look into the future. Our RV was having issues and he hates how fiddly the Sprinter is. A one-year-old version of what we want next costs about that. Our current rig is eleven years old. We'll buy the next rig in about four years, when it's a bit more affordable. Our "dream" can wait. Plus, we're totally FIRE and could pay cash for it now, but that's not going to happen. FWIW, that's exactly what we did with our current rig. Thanks to the pandemic, it's worth almost double what we paid in early 2020.

BTW, someone shared a link to a different couple who did the same New Sprinter conversion thing and spent about the same amount of money. They were WFH nomads until they finally threw in the towel and sold the rig for $130k...after using it for only eleven months. Oof.

[Ron Scott]

In my particular case I knew my expenses would go down after I FIREd (with 8 pets to care for and needing a large yard my expenses went down - by a lot. I imagine it's the same with kids once they fly away) and that I'd have a larger stash later in life because once the critters were gone I could downsize to a more desirable, as well as less expensive, housing option so it was a no brainer for me to pull the plug when young. Now 20 years into RE and having not earned a cent during that time I have more money then before and spend less. Even if investments and housing markets hadn't exploded I would have been fine and have enough to last well into my old age. I consider that a healthy FI and RE plan.

That’s a great story and you must feel proud. Having more $$ 20 years after you started seems to be well on track for success, even if it’s not adjusted for inflation.

Did you really base your nest egg on personal expectations of lowered expenses? Or did you have a particular multiple of planned expenses in mind? Or has it been so long now that you forget?!

(FWIW I have no idea what the right number is and simply wing it, making the assumption that government won’t allow investment returns to lose to inflation for too long. So I divide the nest egg by number of years needed to live off it…and that’s the starting number. I know it results in a low WR but it’s the best logic I can come up with without becoming clairvoyant.)

[Metalcat]

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

Rude...

What the fuck kind of answer do you expect?

That long a retirement is too unpredictable to just say "this multiple of indefinite spend is safe." It just doesn't make any sense.

So no, of course I don't know, no one knows. The 4% rule isn't even a rule, it's a vague starting point and from there each individual needs to try and figure out their own needs and risk tolerances.

It's actually the same for everyone. The 4% rule is based off of a pattern of spending that no real human would ever do, so it's math done with made up numbers.

25X is and has always been a reasonable starting point. But one person's 25X might be based off of massive spending with enormous amounts of fat and really easy places to cut, while another person's might be ultra lean and have no flexibility.

If I have saved 25X, but X is 120K, but only 40K is for my core expenses and 80K is for travel, equestrian, cosmetic treatments, and I'm okay cutting those things, then I'm perfectly fine retiring at 25X in my 30s.

But if I've saved 25X and I'm living on 12K/yr and it requires me to never own a car, live with roommates, and dumpster diving for food, well, I'm pretty fucked even if I've retired at 70 because if my needs increase at all, I have no wiggle room.

The "X" in 25X is largely arbitrary, so the risk associated with multiples of it is largely arbitrary, and the real risk is based more on the person's real life risks. In fact, the longer the retirement, the *less* relevant the market risks because relative to the shit that can change in a person's lifetime, that market risk is tiny.

[Villanelle]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

My answer is still 4%, roughly. But also plenty of room to make budget cuts.  Market is down?  Vacation is canceled this year, or becomes a low-spend visit to friends or a staycation.  And you put the car replacement off another year.  And you add Meatless Thursdays to Meatless Mondays. And maybe you pick up some substitute teaching work to bring in $5k per year, plus you do some pet sitting around your neighborhood for another $1000 a year.  So for a year or two, maybe someone backs off of their 4% number, until the market recovers. 

Or, if an emergency/gift/special thing comes up, you can do those same things.  And your life is still pretty awesome, even if you work on Tuesdays, don't eat meat on Thursdays, and put food in a neighbor's cat's bowl and walk their dog, and you vacation in Yellowstone instead of Tokyo.

[MrGreen]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

My answer is still 4%, roughly. But also plenty of room to make budget cuts.  Market is down?  Vacation is canceled this year, or becomes a low-spend visit to friends or a staycation.  And you put the car replacement off another year.  And you add Meatless Thursdays to Meatless Mondays. And maybe you pick up some substitute teaching work to bring in $5k per year, plus you do some pet sitting around your neighborhood for another $1000 a year.  So for a year or two, maybe someone backs off of their 4% number, until the market recovers. 

Or, if an emergency/gift/special thing comes up, you can do those same things.  And your life is still pretty awesome, even if you work on Tuesdays, don't eat meat on Thursdays, and put food in a neighbor's cat's bowl and walk their dog, and you vacation in Yellowstone instead of Tokyo.

I am wholeheartedly in the 4% camp. I have not been given a compelling reason to change my opinion. There are ways to pull back on spending, as illustrated, if the wort case scenario happens.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

This wasn't to me, but sure if you want a black and white answer to a nuanced question:

3% if you're worried about everything short of government collapse
3.5% if you want to be conservative and not have much fluff to cut
4% if you're ok with a little uncertainty, potentially needing to shift gears, reduce spending on a down year, or get a part time job

[Ron Scott]

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

This wasn't to me, but sure if you want a black and white answer to a nuanced question:

3% if you're worried about everything short of government collapse
3.5% if you want to be conservative and not have much fluff to cut
4% if you're ok with a little uncertainty, potentially needing to shift gears, reduce spending on a down year, or get a part time job

LOL, well you gave a nuanced answer, but it’s a fair one.

My wing-it approach yields 3.3% for a 30 retirement so we’re not far off.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

This wasn't to me, but sure if you want a black and white answer to a nuanced question:

3% if you're worried about everything short of government collapse
3.5% if you want to be conservative and not have much fluff to cut
4% if you're ok with a little uncertainty, potentially needing to shift gears, reduce spending on a down year, or get a part time job

LOL, well you gave a nuanced answer, but it’s a fair one.

My wing-it approach yields 3.3% for a 30 retirement so we’re not far off.

Fair enough. It was as black and white as I feel is possible for a very nuanced question.

[BicycleB]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

Those things were already accounted for in my planned FIRE expenses - just as everything was including big but very unlikely emergencies. I believe thelse things are a normal part of planning a budget and tracking your spending pre-FIRE.

In my particular case I knew my expenses would go down after I FIREd (with 8 pets to care for and needing a large yard my expenses went down - by a lot. I imagine it's the same with kids once they fly away) and that I'd have a larger stash later in life because once the critters were gone I could downsize to a more desirable, as well as less expensive, housing option so it was a no brainer for me to pull the plug when young. Now 20 years into RE and having not earned a cent during that time I have more money then before and spend less. Even if investments and housing markets hadn't exploded I would have been fine and have enough to last well into my old age. I consider that a healthy FI and RE plan.

ETA: I've done the math and if I never sold my original house or tapped any of the equity, or if investments hadn't been as high as they were (I also was RE before the great recession so lost a bundle - which came back within a few years) or had a future pension or soc sec, and never really spent more or less and I just did the things I've done, I would have been fine.

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

As a reader, it appears that you misunderstood her responses, then wrote a derogatory-sounding remark based on your misunderstanding.

Spartana clearly answered your question, referring to both a number that directly answered your question ("25x") and to the fact that people logically should adjust for variances between the 4% rule's assumptions and their own situation ("I've never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks").  She also gave illustrative examples from her own case.

While brief, her answers show she knows the territory perfectly well. Your remark seems to show that you didn't recognize everything that was meant in her succinct yet accurate answers.

Maybe you meant that when you gave a case with four variables possibly differing from the 4% rule's assumptions, you fault her for not giving an exact number? One of the specifications you gave ("emergencies/gifting/special things") actually includes 2 variables that are highly personal in nature (gifting, special things). She clearly implied that the exact number would depend on the details of the case. That's not an answer showing that she lacks knowledge, only the ability to read your mind. It's a knowledgeable answer that points out you should do like the other forum members and address the variables of your case.

Fwiw, Metalcat's immediately subsequent reply gave even further detail on variance adjustments that FIREees here have made, and where to find more detailed discussion of these in the big 4% rule thread.

[VanillaGorilla]

There is some MMM analogue to Godwin's law that states that as the number of posts on a thread increases, the probability of the thread turning into a rehash of the 4% rule asymptotically goes to 1.

I was hoping to discuss expensive campervans in the context of FIRE, personally.

[BeanCounter]

^^In other words you don’t know. That’s fine…

This wasn't to me, but sure if you want a black and white answer to a nuanced question:

3% if you're worried about everything short of government collapse
3.5% if you want to be conservative and not have much fluff to cut
4% if you're ok with a little uncertainty, potentially needing to shift gears, reduce spending on a down year, or get a part time job

You’re probably not wrong on this but I’d just point out that the length of the retirement matters. The performance of 4% WR is lower over 50 years vs 30 (per CFIRESIM and other simulators)

[mistymoney]

There are PLENTY of us out here doing our integrated FIRE thing without any supplemental income from side gigs, blogging, selling courses, or whatever.  We are just fairly low key about it and go about our days doing what we enjoy at a reasonable cost while our portfolios keep ticking along.  In my book, we are the real (if comparatively silent) heroes of FI.  Kind of like Clark Kent, we often blend in until there is a moment of crisis, and then we are able to deploy our resources to help others.

That is definitely one of the reasons DH is still working and I am considering looking for work. Sure, we are FI, but a relatively tight FI that doesn't quite allow us to throw money at other people's problems.

You and your husband are thinking smart IMO.

Hitting 25X of some kind of lifestyle at 37, declaring FI and quitting the job doesn’t mean you’re truly financially independent and set for life.

Makes me start to wonder, independent of what?

It's a good thing we've pretty much never actually seen a real human do this here. Not without some hedges or flexibility in their plan.

I've personally never ever seen anyone declare themselves FI at 25X, quit their job in their 30s, and have no plan for how to handle the risks.

But a lot of high earner/high spender types here like to invoke this mythical unicorn person as some kind of example of what people in this community commonly do. When in reality, what's common in this community is radical over saving, ultra low withdrawal rates, plus paid off houses, plus cash reserves, and still having anxiety about SORR.

That's the norm here. Actually retiring very young with only 25X is the extreme exception.

Of course. But there are those who do plan on retiring (and not earning from their labor in the future) before they hit 40.

What would you consider a reasonable multiple of spend for someone, say 40 and planning a possible 50 years retirement? Add anything for emergencies/gifting/special things?

My answer is still 4%, roughly. But also plenty of room to make budget cuts.  Market is down?  Vacation is canceled this year, or becomes a low-spend visit to friends or a staycation.  And you put the car replacement off another year.  And you add Meatless Thursdays to Meatless Mondays. And maybe you pick up some substitute teaching work to bring in $5k per year, plus you do some pet sitting around your neighborhood for another $1000 a year.  So for a year or two, maybe someone backs off of their 4% number, until the market recovers. 

Or, if an emergency/gift/special thing comes up, you can do those same things.  And your life is still pretty awesome, even if you work on Tuesdays, don't eat meat on Thursdays, and put food in a neighbor's cat's bowl and walk their dog, and you vacation in Yellowstone instead of Tokyo.

but if you already fired.....isn't every day a staycation?

[Metalcat]

There is some MMM analogue to Godwin's law that states that as the number of posts on a thread increases, the probability of the thread turning into a rehash of the 4% rule asymptotically goes to 1.

I was hoping to discuss expensive campervans in the context of FIRE, personally.

So fucking true. Which is also why I referred the topic back to a massive thread that addresses exactly that.

FWIW, I was recently looking at a 42K travel trailer and a 40K SUV to tow it. So does that count?

[Ron Scott]

There is some MMM analogue to Godwin's law that states that as the number of posts on a thread increases, the probability of the thread turning into a rehash of the 4% rule asymptotically goes to 1.

I was hoping to discuss expensive campervans in the context of FIRE, personally.

FWIW, I was recently looking at a 42K travel trailer and a 40K SUV to tow it. So does that count?

LOL, I was hoping it’d become the 3% Rule by now and the thought of riding around in a tiny house gets me seasick…makes me want my uptown studio back. Different strokes…

[Sandi_k]

Don't forget how one must have a $160k camper to live the dream (https://thefioneers.com/cost-of-campervan/).  And a $500 pizza oven.  Very spendy indeed.

Lol, last week, DH and I did a little look into the future. Our RV was having issues and he hates how fiddly the Sprinter is. A one-year-old version of what we want next costs about that. Our current rig is eleven years old. We'll buy the next rig in about four years, when it's a bit more affordable. Our "dream" can wait. Plus, we're totally FIRE and could pay cash for it now, but that's not going to happen. FWIW, that's exactly what we did with our current rig. Thanks to the pandemic, it's worth almost double what we paid in early 2020.

BTW, someone shared a link to a different couple who did the same New Sprinter conversion thing and spent about the same amount of money. They were WFH nomads until they finally threw in the towel and sold the rig for $130k...after using it for only eleven months. Oof.

We bought a Ford E350, and did some improvements: insulation, window shades, a portable fridge, a Fiberine top with sliding windows, a backup camera. The van cost $16k (a 2007 van bought in 2010), and the top and other improvements added another $5k or so.

It rides quite comfortably. We have a foam futon that fits between the wheel wells, and we can tow the boat or the double jetskis quite easily to whichever lake we like.

There is a DIY form - the Sportsmobile forums - that have a LOT of info, pics, strategies, floorplans, suppliers, etc. if you're interested in DIY. Ford and Sprinter/Mercedes are common chassis starters.

https://www.sportsmobileforum.com/forums/

[Dicey]

DH knows he could built one but he has zero desire to do so. Maybe even less than zero.

It sounds like you made reasonable choices, starting with not spending $160+k.

[Metalcat]

There is some MMM analogue to Godwin's law that states that as the number of posts on a thread increases, the probability of the thread turning into a rehash of the 4% rule asymptotically goes to 1.

I was hoping to discuss expensive campervans in the context of FIRE, personally.

FWIW, I was recently looking at a 42K travel trailer and a 40K SUV to tow it. So does that count?

LOL, I was hoping it’d become the 3% Rule by now and the thought of riding around in a tiny house gets me seasick…makes me want my uptown studio back. Different strokes…

Why on earth would you be "hoping" it would become the 3% rule? That's just arbitrary.

As I said multiple times, the 4% rule isn't even a rule, it's a starting point. For some people it will be dangerously low and for some people it will be excessively conservative. It all comes down to the assumptions behind the "X" in 25X, which I already explained. One person with a 3% WR can be at much more risk than another with a 4% WR. These numbers mean nothing without understanding the assumptions behind them.

I will not continue to explain why because I've ranted, endlessly about this for YEARS and we have dedicated areas to discuss it, and nauseum, for many years to come.

As for travel trailers, you never are inside a travel trailer when it's moving, that's illegal. For me the travel trailer is an alternative to tenting and crappy hotel rooms on road trips through rural regions, it's not an alternative to a house. I would be using the trailer for traveling the thousands of miles between my winter house and my summer house...not sure why you would assume I was planning to live in a travel trailer...?

So yeah, it's definitely "spendy."

[Ron Scott]

Why on earth would you be "hoping" it would become the 3% rule?

Wow—this is honestly a very good question.

I guess its a personal philosophy about the REAL value in money. It’s not really about buying stuff.  I see money as a lever in life that can offer a meaningful array of options. Money = flexibility.

At the same time, I don’t believe younger people always know what life options they’ll want in the future because our attitudes, preferred lifestyles, and tastes change over time.

FI is always a great goal. But I am both attracted to and wary of RE. It is an exciting and compelling option, but if not played just right it could become a yoke and a source of regret.

SWRs can certainly vary by individual circumstances. REs on a tight budget and a relatively high WR may find themselves in a bind down the road. Those living happily—and maybe somewhat spendy—on small WRs have already purchased something priceless with their money: future flexibility.

I try to couch my opinions as just that and I recognize YMMV.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I'm personally enjoying the spendy trend in the 'mature' FIRE community.  It might put newbies off, but it's been refreshing hearing all of these '40k/yr is the holy grail' folks admit that there are fun things to try once you have the means.  I'm not so sure about the 'forced spend' part of the discussion that has crept in though - I'm always grateful that I could spend more, but I'm still a 'value investor' and hate clutter (both physical and metphorical)...  It'll be interesting to see how this trend evolves, if the spend result matches the expectations and what new ideas they come up with.

[mistymoney]

spending less than I planned and enjoying that level of spending even more than I thought I would. So..surplus! My regret is that I didn't FIRE sooner.

Your story is always inspiring! Is there a long version available somewhere? journal or thread or odd posting somewhere?

sidebar: you always seem very articulate to me....

[Metalcat]

Why on earth would you be "hoping" it would become the 3% rule?

Wow—this is honestly a very good question.

I guess its a personal philosophy about the REAL value in money. It’s not really about buying stuff.  I see money as a lever in life that can offer a meaningful array of options. Money = flexibility.

At the same time, I don’t believe younger people always know what life options they’ll want in the future because our attitudes, preferred lifestyles, and tastes change over time.

FI is always a great goal. But I am both attracted to and wary of RE. It is an exciting and compelling option, but if not played just right it could become a yoke and a source of regret.

SWRs can certainly vary by individual circumstances. REs on a tight budget and a relatively high WR may find themselves in a bind down the road. Those living happily—and maybe somewhat spendy—on small WRs have already purchased something priceless with their money: future flexibility.

I try to couch my opinions as just that and I recognize YMMV.

But your version of someone young retiring with a 4% WR is limited and not representative of reality.

You're one of a looooong line of folks to express repeated "concern" about a breed of early retiree that doesn't even exist, at least not that I've ever seen. Not here.

This thread is about high spending in the community for a reason, because this place is packed to the rafters with high income, high spending, high saving folks who have no intention of retiring before 50, much less before 40.

No one needs to worry about the poor early retirees who don't understand market risks. It's just a ridiculous thing to worry about. It reminds me of all of the people who were sooooo worried about me when I was losing weight because I might get too thin.

Maybe just give people here the benefit of the doubt that they're not fucking dumb enough to not understand the math of MAJOR life decisions that they have purpose worked towards for years while participating in the most helpful and informative forum that exist on this very topic.

These are not dumb people.

[GuitarStv]

These are not dumb people.

[[Citation needed]]

:P

[neo von retorch]

I feel sad when the intellectual talents of our online community are "wasted" (by my estimation, obviously not theirs) on placating those with sub-optimal (by my estimation!) intentions of failing to be a positive contributor to said community. To put it another way, my patience runs out much more quickly, and I get frustrated and annoyed. So, at some point, I just block.

Money is a tool. If you only use it to make more money and live a barebones lifestyle, is that superior to using it to express your values in other ways? Of course any kind of "money for something" consumption can contribute to environmental decay. Basically existing as a living human and doing anything other than ancient "living off the land" is likely a net negative for the current human-friendly health of the global environment. Particularly burning oil or turning oil into plastic. Boy do we do plenty of that.

There's more than one message of origin here - that with high income and low spending you can retire early and we can be thoughtful about how (and how much) we affect the environment. But if we die with a lot of "extra" money, is that like just giving a great big donation to mother nature?

[mistymoney]

I'm personally enjoying the spendy trend in the 'mature' FIRE community.  It might put newbies off, but it's been refreshing hearing all of these '40k/yr is the holy grail' folks admit that there are fun things to try once you have the means.  I'm not so sure about the 'forced spend' part of the discussion that has crept in though - I'm always grateful that I could spend more, but I'm still a 'value investor' and hate clutter (both physical and metphorical)...  It'll be interesting to see how this trend evolves, if the spend result matches the expectations and what new ideas they come up with.

I guess I'm kind of missing the whole controversy? Anyone can amass a kitty and apply a WR against it and be done working. It can be as spendy as they want it to be. Early retirement has always been a thing, especially those who were in professions with good pension systems back in the day.

is there something about the term/concept fire that people aren't wanting to share?

[bacchi]

There's more than one message of origin here - that with high income and low spending you can retire early and we can be thoughtful about how (and how much) we affect the environment. But if we die with a lot of "extra" money, is that like just giving a great big donation to mother nature?

Yes, especially if it's bequeathed to a land preservation non-profit.

[mistymoney]

spending less than I planned and enjoying that level of spending even more than I thought I would. So..surplus! My regret is that I didn't FIRE sooner.

Your story is always inspiring! Is there a long version available somewhere? journal or thread or odd posting somewhere?

sidebar: you always seem very articulate to me....

Thanks! No journal or long version just a simple "saved my money - while living how I liked -  and sort of accidentally found myself FI and decided to RE" story.  I'm just not a big spender regardless of how much money I have so FIRE was more of a by product then a goal. However I always planned to be FI before 40 and free to do what I want. Ended up what I wanted was to be RE ;-).

ETA: I did delete a lot of my old posts where I talked more in detail about actual numbers and my lifestyle and career path after a forum member found me in RL and started stalking me.

Oh my gosh! that is horrible! so sorry that happened to you.

reminder to us all anonymity is not guanteed on the internet at all, and to be careful.

[lhamo]

For those who doubt that a hobby like gardening can be done on the cheap, here is a photo of just some of the veggies I donated to the food bank yesterday -- these were all grown in one of the two metal troughs I tend at the community garden for food bank donation purposes.  Last year our particular site donated over 4000lbs of organic produce to three food banks in our area.


Inputs for this harvest included:

Space at the community garden in the park (thank you taxpayers)

Grant money + volunteer labor to redesign and improve this particular food bank area

Free seeds from the sustainable agriculture org I volunteer at

My time and labor to plant and maintain my assigned plot (and a little bit of gas to get there in my hybrid -- I could bike but I like using my own tools, which I keep in my car)

Fencing  and crop cover materials I scavenged and installed to keep the bunnies and birds out

Sun (free from the universe) and water (free at the community garden)

I have also started a seed library at the community garden and my goal is to ensure that everyone who wants to grow things from seed has access to the seeds and the knowledge of how to grow successfully so that they are not forced to buy seeds or starts from commercial sources. 

[Villanelle]

Why on earth would you be "hoping" it would become the 3% rule?

Wow—this is honestly a very good question.

I guess its a personal philosophy about the REAL value in money. It’s not really about buying stuff.  I see money as a lever in life that can offer a meaningful array of options. Money = flexibility.

At the same time, I don’t believe younger people always know what life options they’ll want in the future because our attitudes, preferred lifestyles, and tastes change over time.

FI is always a great goal. But I am both attracted to and wary of RE. It is an exciting and compelling option, but if not played just right it could become a yoke and a source of regret.

SWRs can certainly vary by individual circumstances. REs on a tight budget and a relatively high WR may find themselves in a bind down the road. Those living happily—and maybe somewhat spendy—on small WRs have already purchased something priceless with their money: future flexibility.

I try to couch my opinions as just that and I recognize YMMV.

I'm still not sure what your answer is to MC's question.  Why do you hope that 3% becomes the general rule?

As for the bolded, I'm not sure I agree.  This makes it sound like FIRE (or heck, just "R") is some precision symphony and if just one note is held slightly too long or played too softly, suddenly the entire performance turns into a cacophonous disaster.  It's not anywhere near that precise. You don't need to know, when FIREing at the age of 37, that you will, at 65, suddenly have a profound urge to see a Galapagos tortious in its natural habitat or spend a month Eat, Pray, Loving across Europe and Asia.   

If that comes up and it's not in the budget, you can either settle for visiting the San Diego zoo and seeing their creep [yes, that is the collective noun for them] of tortoises, or you can use your free afternoons to pick up the neighbor's kids from school and mind them for a couple hours three days a week until the parents get home from work, for one school year, to earn enough money for that Galapagos trip's expenses that are over whatever your travel budget is.  Or you can cut back on your clothing budget to save for some of it.  Or you can airbnb your guest room for a few months during high season in your area.  Or you can use your travel budget for the next 4 years.  Or you can vow to get all your books from the library instead of buying them for your kindle.  Or you can give up your weekly coffee extravagance. Or when your dog dies, you can decide not to get a new one, freeing up considerable budget space.  Etm.   

All of those things, and many, many, many more allow you to adapt your budget to your life and to all the ways you and your world end up being different than you guessed 30 years ago.  So it's less like a precision symphony and more like a kid's recorder that can be beat to hell, tossed in a backpack, rolled in dirt on the playground, and still play eAverything from Beethoven to Beyonce.

And you mention it being a "yoke and source of regret".  Sure, that's technically possible.  But why do you seem more concerned with FIRE being a yoke and regret, than you are continuing to work being a regrettable yoke?  Unless someone is retiring on a SUPER lean budget and at a SUPER young age, I think the chances of feeling regret are far greater about doing more FT work than about quitting and maybe not seeing the best tortoises. 

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I think this is the interesting part of where the FIRE movement is at these days.  The OG folks like MMM are now indulging in all this extra above and beyond FI money they have come across.  Certainly no 'yoke' of restriction, other than trying to force themselves through the mental 'save and invest' barrier that has them stuck at a negligible or likely negative WR.  They are being told that they can triple their spending and still be below 4%, so now they are putting this in to action.

[ChpBstrd]

...you can either settle for visiting the San Diego zoo and seeing their creep [yes, that is the collective noun for them] of tortoises...

The things I'm learning from the MMM forum these days are different than when I first started, different from what I came for, and nonetheless intriguing.

[mistymoney]

Why on earth would you be "hoping" it would become the 3% rule?

Wow—this is honestly a very good question.

I guess its a personal philosophy about the REAL value in money. It’s not really about buying stuff.  I see money as a lever in life that can offer a meaningful array of options. Money = flexibility.

At the same time, I don’t believe younger people always know what life options they’ll want in the future because our attitudes, preferred lifestyles, and tastes change over time.

FI is always a great goal. But I am both attracted to and wary of RE. It is an exciting and compelling option, but if not played just right it could become a yoke and a source of regret.

SWRs can certainly vary by individual circumstances. REs on a tight budget and a relatively high WR may find themselves in a bind down the road. Those living happily—and maybe somewhat spendy—on small WRs have already purchased something priceless with their money: future flexibility.

I try to couch my opinions as just that and I recognize YMMV.

I'm still not sure what your answer is to MC's question.  Why do you hope that 3% becomes the general rule?

As for the bolded, I'm not sure I agree.  This makes it sound like FIRE (or heck, just "R") is some precision symphony and if just one note is held slightly too long or played too softly, suddenly the entire performance turns into a cacophonous disaster.  It's not anywhere near that precise. You don't need to know, when FIREing at the age of 37, that you will, at 65, suddenly have a profound urge to see a Galapagos tortious in its natural habitat or spend a month Eat, Pray, Loving across Europe and Asia.   

If that comes up and it's not in the budget, you can either settle for visiting the San Diego zoo and seeing their creep [yes, that is the collective noun for them] of tortoises, or you can use your free afternoons to pick up the neighbor's kids from school and mind them for a couple hours three days a week until the parents get home from work, for one school year, to earn enough money for that Galapagos trip's expenses that are over whatever your travel budget is.  Or you can cut back on your clothing budget to save for some of it.  Or you can airbnb your guest room for a few months during high season in your area.  Or you can use your travel budget for the next 4 years.  Or you can vow to get all your books from the library instead of buying them for your kindle.  Or you can give up your weekly coffee extravagance. Or when your dog dies, you can decide not to get a new one, freeing up considerable budget space.  Etm.   

All of those things, and many, many, many more allow you to adapt your budget to your life and to all the ways you and your world end up being different than you guessed 30 years ago.  So it's less like a precision symphony and more like a kid's recorder that can be beat to hell, tossed in a backpack, rolled in dirt on the playground, and still play eAverything from Beethoven to Beyonce.

And you mention it being a "yoke and source of regret".  Sure, that's technically possible.  But why do you seem more concerned with FIRE being a yoke and regret, than you are continuing to work being a regrettable yoke?  Unless someone is retiring on a SUPER lean budget and at a SUPER young age, I think the chances of feeling regret are far greater about doing more FT work than about quitting and maybe not seeing the best tortoises.

but even more simplistically - an older person can pull this stupid "you don't know", "You'll live to regret this" to virtual any decision a younger person can make - college major/career, city to live in, marriage/no marriage, which partner, kids/no kids, the list is really endless.

But once over 18 - people get to make the decision for themselves. lol! they even get to vote and then regret who they elected into office....affecting us all!! 

Any yet the choice is still theirs to make.....

[mathlete]

I'm very critical of the way that FIRE is promoted. Specifically, the "save 25X your low level of spending and you can live without work forever" pitch. But as far as regret goes, I think far more people will regret not saving enough vs. the people who will regret saving too much and pulling the trigger too early.

I think the sweet spot is to save as much as you can towards that 25X goal, and some point along the way, you realize that life is way too volatile to leave the workforce super early and plan for 50 years of the type of low spending that a 30 year old could handle. Then you start exploring a bunch of other really great options that are available to you because you did the saving aggressively and early.

[TomTX]

I'm very critical of the way that FIRE is promoted. Specifically, the "save 25X your low level of spending and you can live without work forever" pitch.

Who exactly is promoting that pitch, other than breathless articles using it as a strawman to knock down?

[Metalcat]

I'm very critical of the way that FIRE is promoted. Specifically, the "save 25X your low level of spending and you can live without work forever" pitch.

Who exactly is promoting that pitch, other than breathless articles using it as a strawman to knock down?

Yeah...I personally have never actually read anything that made me think that I could save 25X of a super lean budget and never again have to worry about money.

I only ever hear it framed that way by people "worried" about this huge population of financially irresponsible early retirees...who don't exist.