Author Topic: Future of State Pension Plans  (Read 24782 times)

FIPurpose

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Future of State Pension Plans
« on: October 19, 2016, 08:48:16 AM »
NJ, 2800 Sq foot home on 1/4 acre in a upper middle class town.  Property taxes on a 580,000 home $12,000 Per year.  Volunteer fire, first aid good schools. 

In NJ the state is forced to send torrents of money to about 33 poor school districts for the last 30 years by the state supreme court.  I heard Christie give a talk on this.  After 30 years of flowing state funding only 2 of these districts have a graduation rate above the state average.  Christie has a new proposal to give aid equal aid to districts.  This in theory would reduce property taxes by 2,000 on average in my town. 
The other issue is state workers are getting over on pensions and health care benefits.  The health car benefits in the state of NJ for state workers are so good that the Obama administration will fine NJ 700 million next year if these benefits are not reduced. 

I'm 54 and I see many of my high school classmates who worked for the state are retiring now with full pensions and health care.

NJ also has an underfunded pension plan, by like 40 billion dollars. 


State income tax is high so if the sales tax 7 percent going to 6 percent due to a gas tax increase recently passed.

As a fellow MMM fan I also wish my NJ property taxes were lower so I understand your pain however I think you are blaming the wrong people.  Schools are primarily where your NJ property tax goes to as you can see from the break-down on your tax bill.  I won't comment on your theory about school funding since I haven't done the research on that issue, although I would note that you agree that you are getting "good schools" in exchange for your high property tax bill.  I have consistently been impressed with the NJ school districts were my sons have gone to school.

I do wish to comment on your lament about "state workers getting over on pensions" as I happen to know a little background that you may not be aware of.  The NJ pension system was working fine with contributions being taken automatically from state workers and an annual contribution into the system from the State government.  Gov. Whitman decided she would not make the contribution and every governor since her followed suit by either not making or only partially making their contribution into the pension system.  As a fellow reader of the MMM blog I know you'll understand how this effect over time has disastrous consequences.  Gov. Christie said, hey I inherited this problem let's fix it together, state workers you will contribute more to make up for the years of State shortfalls and I'll resume the annual contributions.  Any guesses on what happened next?  Yup the state workers had more taken out from their paycheck every week and then Gov. Christie didn't honor his part of the agreement.  And now you know the story of why the NJ pension system is currently ranked 3rd worst in the nation for being underfunded.  Don't worry I know lots of people who have 1/10 of their salary being taken out to fund their pension while having their wages frozen for years - oh and all by the way being underpaid compared to the private sector to begin with - and whose job description is to literally to try to serve the public interest.  So I wouldn't be so quick to blame the "state workers getting over on pensions".  I'm sure you'll also be happy to hear its my understanding that the healthcare after retirement is already being phased out.

Finally I'll add that my understanding on why NJ property taxes are so high relative to other states is that NJ has a lot of small individual towns compared to other states.  With your tax dollars you might have a local police department that is very responsive and a excellent local public school system - but yes you have to pay for those things with higher property taxes.

Someone posted this on another thread and it made me think about what is the future of state pension plans. In my opinion, state pension plans are one of the best things you can own. Legally secured, publicly funded retirement. But several states are quickly losing pace with their pensions. States like Oregon, California, Illinois, New Jersey, and many others are severely underfunded. What is the solution to these problems? More Taxes?

Will this lead to more states pushing for defined contribution plans over defined benefit (like Alaska has now)?

I've been considering for the past few years moving to teaching, but obviously if what is supposed to be the biggest benefit for public teachers isn't going to be there, is it still worth it? I'm very interested in hearing what people have to say on the matter.

ncornilsen

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 10:08:37 AM »
I believe defined benefit plans are a luxury that can't be sustained any longer. Defined contribution plans are the way forward.

It would also help prevent shenanigans by the state, such as assuming super optimistic growth rates as a means of lowering the contributions they make to the funds. And it would reduce the conflict of interest in having recipients of a state retirement fund deciding how much money to give themselves out of the pockets of the constituents.


mm1970

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 11:33:02 AM »
I believe defined benefit plans are a luxury that can't be sustained any longer. Defined contribution plans are the way forward.

It would also help prevent shenanigans by the state, such as assuming super optimistic growth rates as a means of lowering the contributions they make to the funds. And it would reduce the conflict of interest in having recipients of a state retirement fund deciding how much money to give themselves out of the pockets of the constituents.
+1

DA

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 11:36:55 AM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 

Public sector unions and taxpayer-funded pensions--and yes, despite paycheck contributions, these pensions are heavily subsidized by taxpayer money--have a lot of pernicious effects.  First, it leads to a very unseemly quid pro quo between public sector unions that deliver votes to the politicians who in return deliver ever-more generous pensions or contribution terms.  Second, the pensions are almost always "gameable" such that people can artificially inflate their pensions with shady end-of-career antics.  Third, as a union that is literally organized against the taxpayers and the public interest, it places a substantial minority in direct conflict with the rest of the citizenry, and leads to an "entitlement mindset" among the unions.  Fourth, the pensions are NEVER fully funded, despite what any politician or union rep says. 

Ranting aside, for Mustachians who are geographically flexible and looking to settle down somewhere long-term, I would definitely consider the financial health of a state when choosing where to live.  The pensions will be paid out--the public sector unions are far more organized and politically connected than the dispersed general public, and so they will win.  This means taxes of all sorts will go up.  Valuable services may be reduced as well.  If you don't believe me, take a look at this link and see how enthusiastic you are about moving to Illinois:  https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/pensions-101-understanding-illinois-massive-government-worker-pension-crisis/

Illinois is probably the worst state in this regard, but there are plenty that are not far behind it. 

FIPurpose

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 11:52:51 AM »
I believe defined benefit plans are a luxury that can't be sustained any longer. Defined contribution plans are the way forward.

It would also help prevent shenanigans by the state, such as assuming super optimistic growth rates as a means of lowering the contributions they make to the funds. And it would reduce the conflict of interest in having recipients of a state retirement fund deciding how much money to give themselves out of the pockets of the constituents.

I agree but there is a really big cost to moving to this plan. Not only do you still have to cover the pension liability of current retirees, but you'd likely have to increase the pay of teachers to make up the difference. In the end though, I think the feds will have to bail out pensions and force states into different plans that are either defined contrbution or significant reduction of benefit.

To even get the unions to consider changing even under great duress would probably require a 10-15% pay bump.

DA

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 12:13:34 PM »
pensions should be thought of as one part if an overall FIRE strategy.  They are not a certainty.

I would pretty wary of a state or local government pension as my sole source of income, and agree that it should only be one piece of the puzzle for Mustachians.  I would feel more comfortable counting on a federal government pension. 

fattest_foot

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 02:18:09 PM »
I'm surprised that the federal government still has a pension, too.

I imagine it's to appease the pay gap between private and public.

It's especially baffling because the "vesting" time is as low as 5 years. If not for the giant gap in employment I'll have due to FIRE, I'll have a pension with very minimal time invested (6 years military, ~11 years government if I FIRE on time).

Lagom

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 02:42:30 PM »
It seems probable that once you vest in a state sponsored pension, you are fairly unlikely to lose that benefit barring widespread economic disaster, especially in a state like California, that may have budgeting issues, but is also a world-leading economy in of itself. States very well may slash benefits or move to defined contribution plans (many are already doing this), but only for new employees, which does suck for them, of course.

As for the complaining about the existence of pensions, I agree that given the usual pay in the relevant sectors, they have been a necessary and overall worthwhile means to attract talent from better paying private career paths. There has definitely been pension abuse, especially by certain unions and at the leadership level of various organizations/municipalities, but that doesn't mean it's fair or a good idea to completely remove a key benefit for millions of professionals who are a clear net-positive to society. Even if you disagree with that, I think we can all agree that thorooughly disincentivizing our best and brightest from pursuing public-service careers is probably not the best approach.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 02:44:16 PM by Lagom »

J Boogie

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 02:48:56 PM »
As an FYI, some state pension fund eligible employees are not covered under a union contract, myself included (in a year or so when invest benefits).

Agree pay will have to rise to prevent a talent drain.  I had to accept roughly half my salary in market value to work at my current job.  I accepted this due to the pension and healthcare benefit I will get, but which is not guaranteed under a union contract, so a bit of a gamble.

At the risk of being warned, I will just say that teachers and other state employees funded by our taxes are necessary and our governments are a big part of why the civilized world is a great place to live vs eras with kings and conquest occurring all the time.  We fund folks who put out forest fires, teach kids, police the streets and repair roads, and yes even provide healthcare and some food to the needy (because it hopefully improves everyone's quality of life). Finding the money to pay for it gets into political talk, so please no responses on this comment.

I'm all for state employees having comfortable salaries and benefits.

I think the concern is that these pensions will either not be paid, or like mentioned before, paid by unjust tax increases.

Whatever increase in defined contribution is required, it should be paid up front.  I too think it's dangerous for municipalities to be on the hook for these unknowable amounts, especially as expected returns might go down and life expectancy might go up - two trends that are very realistic.

Lagom

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 02:58:00 PM »
Agreed. The biggest problems are definitely along the lines of what was stated above, such as the unrealistically optimistic return forecasts, the ability of states to "borrow" from pension funds, etc. And while I support the idea of pensions in public sector jobs, there is, of course, the pension packing sorts of abuse that unfairly gives unions/executives a bad name in the court of public opinion, but is nevertheless too common to be ignored.

As for pensions being paid, as an individual employee of a public entity, I am fairly optimistic on the topic and not especially worried that I'll lose my pension barring circumstances that would also drain my brokerage accounts.

Captain FIRE

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 03:11:49 PM »
I'm surprised that the federal government still has a pension, too.

I imagine it's to appease the pay gap between private and public.

It's especially baffling because the "vesting" time is as low as 5 years. If not for the giant gap in employment I'll have due to FIRE, I'll have a pension with very minimal time invested (6 years military, ~11 years government if I FIRE on time).

Where is there a 5 year vesting?  In my state it's 10 years to vest, which is admittedly low - but you can't collect until a certain age (takes 20 years for no age requirement to retire).  And if you collect then it's only a 15% pension, which is based on average of the top 5 years with no COLA (so while you were waiting for it to kick in, it was rapidly losing earning power).  Finally, should you collect on the pension, WEP kicks in so you don't get much SS even if you contributed there before/after your state employment.  (Ironically, I'd collect more SS - on my own record or my spouse's - if I was a stay home spouse than by working.)

Meanwhile I could earn 50% more on the public sector side and I pay 11% of my salary for the privilege of the pension.

fattest_foot

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 03:46:32 PM »
I'm surprised that the federal government still has a pension, too.

I imagine it's to appease the pay gap between private and public.

It's especially baffling because the "vesting" time is as low as 5 years. If not for the giant gap in employment I'll have due to FIRE, I'll have a pension with very minimal time invested (6 years military, ~11 years government if I FIRE on time).

Where is there a 5 year vesting?

https://www.opm.gov/retirement-services/fers-information/eligibility/

5 year minimum for immediate and deferred retirements. Like you said, it loses to inflation in the deferred option, but it's still available.

Beridian

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 03:54:08 PM »
I think it makes sense to move away from traditional plans for new employees.   However existing plans must be honored and funded.  As has been mentioned too many budgetary games have been played with pension funding.   I would be in favor of federal legislation that requires ALL providers of pensions to adhere to sound accounting and funding practices.   Fat chance, our current obstructionist congress couldn't agree on a resolution honoring mother's day.

FWIW I have 31 years in at a large corporation and have a respectable pension coming to me.  It will not allow me to vacation on the French Riviera but it coupled with my 401k will get the bills paid.
 

somers515

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 06:39:58 PM »
Interesting discussion and I think all the commenters on this thread could design a sustainable system that would work.  My only strong belief is governments should honor their promises that public workers rely on.  Change up the system from this point forward sure, as long as there isn't a bait and switch.  I have no problem with a different system being put in place and announced so public workers can make informed decisions.

It's a shame really, we continually allow our politicians to kick the can down the road we are making small problems into larger ones.  It's just like social security - make small changes now and we can avoid a crisis down the road.  Be vocal against politicians who don't keep their promises and encourage ones who are willing to make small sacrifices now to avoid huge problems later.

As for the OP or anyone considering a career where you rely on a pension, I would agree that you should check out your State's funding of current pensions but also additionally as a mustachian save as much as you can on your own too.  Hopefully then you can create a stash that can support you AND then just have your pension as your insurance or extra traveling/luxury money or however you want to look at it.

TomTX

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 08:20:52 PM »
I'm surprised that the federal government still has a pension, too.

I imagine it's to appease the pay gap between private and public.

It's especially baffling because the "vesting" time is as low as 5 years. If not for the giant gap in employment I'll have due to FIRE, I'll have a pension with very minimal time invested (6 years military, ~11 years government if I FIRE on time).

Vesting time when I joined was 5 years. By which point the employee has put in 50% of a year's salary and the State has put in 50% of a year's salary.  And the employee is taking a noticeably lower salary than private industry.

The annual payout on 5 years is just shy of 10% of your average salary. Not inflation adjusted. You also have to wait until you are 65 to start drawing it if you leave with 5 years vested. IIRC the average length of draw is between 8 and 9 years.

chasesfish

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2016, 06:54:54 AM »
The state pension plan issues are fascinating - Many states have large benefits, marginally funded plans, and returns that aren't pacing the benchmarks due to high fees.

Here are two interesting pieces to consider in this thread:

Nevada:  Passive vs. Active Management

http://www.wsj.com/articles/what-does-nevadas-35-billion-fund-manager-do-all-day-nothing-1476887420

DFW Company Relocation:

https://www.dallaschamber.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CorporateAnnouncements_SUCCESS_TIMELINE.pdf


There's a significant out-migration of business from California and Illinois and the high current taxes and pension concerns are driving it.   The state(s) do NOT have unlimited resources to pay these benefits.  At some point their tax rate goes so high that overall collections drop.   Fortunately there's the mathematical solution of reducing/eliminating new benefits and reducing pay for existing workers to fund these obligations.


onlykelsey

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2016, 07:06:19 AM »
I believe defined benefit plans are a luxury that can't be sustained any longer. Defined contribution plans are the way forward.

It would also help prevent shenanigans by the state, such as assuming super optimistic growth rates as a means of lowering the contributions they make to the funds. And it would reduce the conflict of interest in having recipients of a state retirement fund deciding how much money to give themselves out of the pockets of the constituents.

I don't disagree (and I work in a related field), but in addition to the problem that FIPurpose points out, when you do push salaries higher to get closer to private, I think public employees (like most) will just spend the difference and be underfunding their own retirement.  It reminds me of that Dr. Seuss book... we're just moving the problem from the state underfunding and making ridiculous optimistic predictions to the individual employees doing it.

J Boogie

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2016, 09:12:58 AM »
I think public employees (like most) will just spend the difference and be underfunding their own retirement.  It reminds me of that Dr. Seuss book... we're just moving the problem from the state underfunding and making ridiculous optimistic predictions to the individual employees doing it.

That seems to be the belief of Paul Krugman as well.

"Today, however, workers who have any retirement plan at all generally have defined-contribution plans — basically, 401(k)’s — in which employers put money into a tax-sheltered account that’s supposed to end up big enough to retire on. The trouble is that at this point it’s clear that the shift to 401(k)’s was a gigantic failure. Employers took advantage of the switch to surreptitiously cut benefits; investment returns have been far lower than workers were told to expect; and, to be fair, many people haven’t managed their money wisely.

As a result, we’re looking at a looming retirement crisis, with tens of millions of Americans facing a sharp decline in living standards at the end of their working lives. For many, the only thing protecting them from abject penury will be Social Security."

I disagree with the notion that people should receive any luxuries beyond what they have earned.  I believe in a society that provides the basic needs for all (food, shelter, education, medicine), and anything beyond that is up to the individual.

Not that pensioners haven't earned their pension; indeed they have - but I find the notion that moving to a defined contribution is unethical or imprudent to be completely mistaken.

The only fault I can find in the implementation of the defined contribution approach is the rosy return predictions.  So it seems logical that the solution is to dial back the optimistic returns forecasting, rather than keep those optimistic return forecasts and just write a blank check from taxpayers (or shareholders, if this was 20-50 years ago) to make up for any shortcomings.

Schaefer Light

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2016, 09:16:22 AM »
I believe defined benefit plans are a luxury that can't be sustained any longer. Defined contribution plans are the way forward.

It would also help prevent shenanigans by the state, such as assuming super optimistic growth rates as a means of lowering the contributions they make to the funds. And it would reduce the conflict of interest in having recipients of a state retirement fund deciding how much money to give themselves out of the pockets of the constituents.

I don't disagree (and I work in a related field), but in addition to the problem that FIPurpose points out, when you do push salaries higher to get closer to private, I think public employees (like most) will just spend the difference and be underfunding their own retirement.  It reminds me of that Dr. Seuss book... we're just moving the problem from the state underfunding and making ridiculous optimistic predictions to the individual employees doing it.
That may be true, but at least then you're in control of it.  I don't trust that any money that's not already in an account with my name on it will be there for me at any point in the future.

MrsPete

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2016, 10:24:58 AM »
I've been considering for the past few years moving to teaching, but obviously if what is supposed to be the biggest benefit for public teachers isn't going to be there, is it still worth it? I'm very interested in hearing what people have to say on the matter.
I'm a teacher and expect to receive a state pension in a few more years, but I wouldn't want to start out today with the expectation of that benefit still being in place 20-30 years from now.  I'm hearing that younger teachers are going to move to a different retirement plan in only a few years.  We already have trouble getting teachers here, so this is likely to have a negative effect on our state. 

I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 
Thing is, state employees accept lower salaries for years in exchange for the pension in retirement.  If you want to get rid of the pensions, you're going to have to pony up more money in the short-term.

Where is there a 5 year vesting?  In my state it's 10 years to vest, which is admittedly low
I was vested at five years, and I agree with you -- that's low.  I do think that if you're going to collect a pension, you should have put in a whole career with that company/department/entity.  I think ten is the absolute minimum that should qualify, and I'd really lean towards 15. 


DA

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2016, 12:01:16 PM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 
Thing is, state employees accept lower salaries for years in exchange for the pension in retirement.  If you want to get rid of the pensions, you're going to have to pony up more money in the short-term.

I don't think that is quite true.  People with skills that are valuable outside of the government usually take a pay cut in return for cushy government benefits.  Think lawyers, physicians, engineers, etc.  But most government workers don't fit this mold.  Three of the most notorious state pensioners are police, firefighters, and teachers.  The skills possessed by these individuals are not valued outside of the government very much (e.g., private school teachers are usually paid less than their public school counterparts).  People can talk all they want about how "important" these jobs are, but one's pay is determined by supply and demand.  Most cops and firefighters would never earn close to their salary (even ignoring benefits) in private sector employment--they're not taking a pay cut to join public service.  Even more glaring are the low-level administrative jobs in state government, where it is often blatantly obvious that most of them could not hold down a real job in the private sector (e.g., the rude employees at the DMV). 

And even a lot of skilled professionals who are employed by the government overestimate the market for their skills.  I know government lawyers earning $100k a year that think they are "big firm material," but no big firm would ever hire them (you have to be hired out of law school or come in as a partner with a book of business, and they can't do either one).  So did they really take a pay cut to work for the government, or was that their best offer? 

I'm guessing that most MMM readers who work for the government are the sort of people who actually took a pay cut to work for the government--and kudos to them.  I've personally considered taking a ~50% pay cut to work for the government myself.  That doesn't mean we need defined benefit pensions for state and local government. 

DA

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2016, 12:03:22 PM »
I think public employees (like most) will just spend the difference and be underfunding their own retirement.  It reminds me of that Dr. Seuss book... we're just moving the problem from the state underfunding and making ridiculous optimistic predictions to the individual employees doing it.

That seems to be the belief of Paul Krugman as well.

"Today, however, workers who have any retirement plan at all generally have defined-contribution plans — basically, 401(k)’s — in which employers put money into a tax-sheltered account that’s supposed to end up big enough to retire on. The trouble is that at this point it’s clear that the shift to 401(k)’s was a gigantic failure. Employers took advantage of the switch to surreptitiously cut benefits; investment returns have been far lower than workers were told to expect; and, to be fair, many people haven’t managed their money wisely.

As a result, we’re looking at a looming retirement crisis, with tens of millions of Americans facing a sharp decline in living standards at the end of their working lives. For many, the only thing protecting them from abject penury will be Social Security."

I disagree with the notion that people should receive any luxuries beyond what they have earned.  I believe in a society that provides the basic needs for all (food, shelter, education, medicine), and anything beyond that is up to the individual.

Not that pensioners haven't earned their pension; indeed they have - but I find the notion that moving to a defined contribution is unethical or imprudent to be completely mistaken.

The only fault I can find in the implementation of the defined contribution approach is the rosy return predictions.  So it seems logical that the solution is to dial back the optimistic returns forecasting, rather than keep those optimistic return forecasts and just write a blank check from taxpayers (or shareholders, if this was 20-50 years ago) to make up for any shortcomings.

The Krugman quote is anti-Mustachian.  Most people really ought to be able to live on SS (by the time they're 67).  The only reason people "can't" live on their SS benefits, in most cases, is an overly spendypants lifestyle.  The answer isn't for the government to transfer more money to people, it's for people to grow up and stop spending themselves into poverty. 

onlykelsey

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2016, 12:07:36 PM »
...it's for people to grow up and stop spending themselves into poverty.

Okay, but what do we do until we find a way to change human nature?  I think literally every society has struggled with this, although maybe it's worse in the modern day West now because lending is so easy. 

To me the best system might involve forcing people to save x% in to their own account, and allowing them to invest it in various low-cost funds.  It wouldn't hurt the rest of of us who are interested in saving 5x% in retirement accounts, but it would certainly ensure less poverty/reliance by able-bodied individuals on the rest of us. 401(k)s aren't available to most folks, and aren't used by those who have access. Hell, everyone can have an IRA and I think the average balance is five figures at retirement.  I don't think most people can be trusted to do this for themselves.

dude

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2016, 12:10:42 PM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 

Public sector unions and taxpayer-funded pensions--and yes, despite paycheck contributions, these pensions are heavily subsidized by taxpayer money--have a lot of pernicious effects.  First, it leads to a very unseemly quid pro quo between public sector unions that deliver votes to the politicians who in return deliver ever-more generous pensions or contribution terms.  Second, the pensions are almost always "gameable" such that people can artificially inflate their pensions with shady end-of-career antics.  Third, as a union that is literally organized against the taxpayers and the public interest, it places a substantial minority in direct conflict with the rest of the citizenry, and leads to an "entitlement mindset" among the unions.  Fourth, the pensions are NEVER fully funded, despite what any politician or union rep says. 

Ranting aside, for Mustachians who are geographically flexible and looking to settle down somewhere long-term, I would definitely consider the financial health of a state when choosing where to live.  The pensions will be paid out--the public sector unions are far more organized and politically connected than the dispersed general public, and so they will win.  This means taxes of all sorts will go up.  Valuable services may be reduced as well.  If you don't believe me, take a look at this link and see how enthusiastic you are about moving to Illinois:  https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/pensions-101-understanding-illinois-massive-government-worker-pension-crisis/

Illinois is probably the worst state in this regard, but there are plenty that are not far behind it.

Yeah, let's all race to the bottom!  Woo-hoo!  Team America, fuck yeah!

Captain FIRE

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2016, 12:59:24 PM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 
Thing is, state employees accept lower salaries for years in exchange for the pension in retirement.  If you want to get rid of the pensions, you're going to have to pony up more money in the short-term.

I don't think that is quite true.  People with skills that are valuable outside of the government usually take a pay cut in return for cushy government benefits.  Think lawyers, physicians, engineers, etc.  But most government workers don't fit this mold.  Three of the most notorious state pensioners are police, firefighters, and teachers.  The skills possessed by these individuals are not valued outside of the government very much (e.g., private school teachers are usually paid less than their public school counterparts).  People can talk all they want about how "important" these jobs are, but one's pay is determined by supply and demand.  Most cops and firefighters would never earn close to their salary (even ignoring benefits) in private sector employment--they're not taking a pay cut to join public service.  Even more glaring are the low-level administrative jobs in state government, where it is often blatantly obvious that most of them could not hold down a real job in the private sector (e.g., the rude employees at the DMV). 

And even a lot of skilled professionals who are employed by the government overestimate the market for their skills.  I know government lawyers earning $100k a year that think they are "big firm material," but no big firm would ever hire them (you have to be hired out of law school or come in as a partner with a book of business, and they can't do either one).  So did they really take a pay cut to work for the government, or was that their best offer? 

I'm guessing that most MMM readers who work for the government are the sort of people who actually took a pay cut to work for the government--and kudos to them.  I've personally considered taking a ~50% pay cut to work for the government myself.  That doesn't mean we need defined benefit pensions for state and local government.

I can tell you that most of the lawyers I work with in the state executive branch agency came from big firm and went to govt.  So at least from my experience, while there are 1-2 that are likely unhireable, I think you are overrating the overall lack of hireability.  (I'm not quite sure why there's an assumption of incompetence if working for the government - there's a lot of highly skilled people that are dedicated public servants.  That's a definite downside of the govt job, that people assume you are lazy and/or stupid.)  I said above I'd get a 50% pay jump (pre-bonus) if I left my govt job - I came to that figure because I was actually interviewing for other jobs when I found out I was pregnant and withdrew.  Seemed like a poor time to go.  (And btw, after a few years working, most go in house - that's the salary/hours I'd compare to, not the biglaw salary.  Biglaw would be a 280% jump before bonus, but the hours would more than double.) 

Yes, police and firefighters are skills not generally used outside govt - but they are also employed in highly dangerous professions, with a lot of risk of injury or death (much like the military with its benefits).  It seems reasonable to me that society would want to ensure that if something happens to the employee, that the family is not needing to go get food stamps and such to survive.  It's also likely to discourage people from entering that profession.  (From what I can tell, a lot of the high firefighter pay issue is wrapped up with high amounts of overtime, which is likely due in part to beancounters refusing to allow sufficient employees to be hired.)

I'm fine with taking away pensions, as long as the govt starts 1) paying market rate and 2) makes current employees whole for the loss of the pension (contractually) promised to them that they relied upon during their prior years of work. 

DA

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #25 on: October 20, 2016, 02:50:28 PM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 
Thing is, state employees accept lower salaries for years in exchange for the pension in retirement.  If you want to get rid of the pensions, you're going to have to pony up more money in the short-term.

I don't think that is quite true.  People with skills that are valuable outside of the government usually take a pay cut in return for cushy government benefits.  Think lawyers, physicians, engineers, etc.  But most government workers don't fit this mold.  Three of the most notorious state pensioners are police, firefighters, and teachers.  The skills possessed by these individuals are not valued outside of the government very much (e.g., private school teachers are usually paid less than their public school counterparts).  People can talk all they want about how "important" these jobs are, but one's pay is determined by supply and demand.  Most cops and firefighters would never earn close to their salary (even ignoring benefits) in private sector employment--they're not taking a pay cut to join public service.  Even more glaring are the low-level administrative jobs in state government, where it is often blatantly obvious that most of them could not hold down a real job in the private sector (e.g., the rude employees at the DMV). 

And even a lot of skilled professionals who are employed by the government overestimate the market for their skills.  I know government lawyers earning $100k a year that think they are "big firm material," but no big firm would ever hire them (you have to be hired out of law school or come in as a partner with a book of business, and they can't do either one).  So did they really take a pay cut to work for the government, or was that their best offer? 

I'm guessing that most MMM readers who work for the government are the sort of people who actually took a pay cut to work for the government--and kudos to them.  I've personally considered taking a ~50% pay cut to work for the government myself.  That doesn't mean we need defined benefit pensions for state and local government.

I can tell you that most of the lawyers I work with in the state executive branch agency came from big firm and went to govt.  So at least from my experience, while there are 1-2 that are likely unhireable, I think you are overrating the overall lack of hireability.  (I'm not quite sure why there's an assumption of incompetence if working for the government - there's a lot of highly skilled people that are dedicated public servants.  That's a definite downside of the govt job, that people assume you are lazy and/or stupid.)  I said above I'd get a 50% pay jump (pre-bonus) if I left my govt job - I came to that figure because I was actually interviewing for other jobs when I found out I was pregnant and withdrew.  Seemed like a poor time to go.  (And btw, after a few years working, most go in house - that's the salary/hours I'd compare to, not the biglaw salary.  Biglaw would be a 280% jump before bonus, but the hours would more than double.) 

Yes, police and firefighters are skills not generally used outside govt - but they are also employed in highly dangerous professions, with a lot of risk of injury or death (much like the military with its benefits).  It seems reasonable to me that society would want to ensure that if something happens to the employee, that the family is not needing to go get food stamps and such to survive.  It's also likely to discourage people from entering that profession.  (From what I can tell, a lot of the high firefighter pay issue is wrapped up with high amounts of overtime, which is likely due in part to beancounters refusing to allow sufficient employees to be hired.)

I'm fine with taking away pensions, as long as the govt starts 1) paying market rate and 2) makes current employees whole for the loss of the pension (contractually) promised to them that they relied upon during their prior years of work.

I don't want to take away anyone's pension, at least if they've been working for a while in a job that promised them a pension.  I would be in favor of something like placing all new employees going forward, plus all employees who've been working for less than 10 years in the government, on a defined contribution plan.  The existing but relatively new employees have the cash value of their current pension contributed to the retirement account.  Everyone else (the +10 year employees) gets their pensions as promised.  The government could even automatically contribute a fixed amount or % every month to the employee's retirement account under the new plan.

I don't think they'd have to drastically increase salaries to do this (especially if contributions were made to the accounts on behalf of employees).  Some of the biggest perks of government work is having set hours, no work on the weekends, lots of vacation time and no obligation to check your Blackberry, very good job security, and heavily subsidized healthcare.  The pension of course is another great reason to work for the government, but I don't believe that state and local government would have trouble hiring under my proposed system. 

DA

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #26 on: October 20, 2016, 02:56:56 PM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 

Public sector unions and taxpayer-funded pensions--and yes, despite paycheck contributions, these pensions are heavily subsidized by taxpayer money--have a lot of pernicious effects.  First, it leads to a very unseemly quid pro quo between public sector unions that deliver votes to the politicians who in return deliver ever-more generous pensions or contribution terms.  Second, the pensions are almost always "gameable" such that people can artificially inflate their pensions with shady end-of-career antics.  Third, as a union that is literally organized against the taxpayers and the public interest, it places a substantial minority in direct conflict with the rest of the citizenry, and leads to an "entitlement mindset" among the unions.  Fourth, the pensions are NEVER fully funded, despite what any politician or union rep says. 

Ranting aside, for Mustachians who are geographically flexible and looking to settle down somewhere long-term, I would definitely consider the financial health of a state when choosing where to live.  The pensions will be paid out--the public sector unions are far more organized and politically connected than the dispersed general public, and so they will win.  This means taxes of all sorts will go up.  Valuable services may be reduced as well.  If you don't believe me, take a look at this link and see how enthusiastic you are about moving to Illinois:  https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/pensions-101-understanding-illinois-massive-government-worker-pension-crisis/

Illinois is probably the worst state in this regard, but there are plenty that are not far behind it.

Yeah, let's all race to the bottom!  Woo-hoo!  Team America, fuck yeah!

How would reforming one of the primary causes of the fiscal crises going in the states and localities be a "race to the bottom"? 

Indexer

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2016, 04:45:06 AM »
A lot of states are fixing this in a way that the vast majority of participants won't notice.

They are just cutting the COLA adjustments. Given a long time frame those COLA adjustments can add up to a lot of money.

Some courts have overruled these changes, but it isn't stopping states from trying.

Adam Zapple

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2016, 06:01:37 AM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 
Thing is, state employees accept lower salaries for years in exchange for the pension in retirement.  If you want to get rid of the pensions, you're going to have to pony up more money in the short-term.

I don't think that is quite true.  People with skills that are valuable outside of the government usually take a pay cut in return for cushy government benefits.  Think lawyers, physicians, engineers, etc.  But most government workers don't fit this mold.  Three of the most notorious state pensioners are police, firefighters, and teachers.  The skills possessed by these individuals are not valued outside of the government very much (e.g., private school teachers are usually paid less than their public school counterparts).  People can talk all they want about how "important" these jobs are, but one's pay is determined by supply and demand.  Most cops and firefighters would never earn close to their salary (even ignoring benefits) in private sector employment--they're not taking a pay cut to join public service.  Even more glaring are the low-level administrative jobs in state government, where it is often blatantly obvious that most of them could not hold down a real job in the private sector (e.g., the rude employees at the DMV). 

And even a lot of skilled professionals who are employed by the government overestimate the market for their skills.  I know government lawyers earning $100k a year that think they are "big firm material," but no big firm would ever hire them (you have to be hired out of law school or come in as a partner with a book of business, and they can't do either one).  So did they really take a pay cut to work for the government, or was that their best offer? 

I'm guessing that most MMM readers who work for the government are the sort of people who actually took a pay cut to work for the government--and kudos to them.  I've personally considered taking a ~50% pay cut to work for the government myself.  That doesn't mean we need defined benefit pensions for state and local government.

I'm a firefighter and I agree, to some extent, with your statements.  On the whole, most of my coworkers are better off as firefighters than they were, or would be, as electricians, plumbers, desk jockeys, or whatever else they did before.  On the flip side, we have some super talented people who would be doing a much better in the public sector.  I will not get into job "importance" because I have no interest in getting into a negative, politicky back and forth argument.  Some things I would like to highlight are:

Saying we should outlaw public pensions is like saying "mortgages are bad." Just because some people were taken advantage of doesn't mean we need to throw the whole thing out.  Public employee pensions can be of great benefit to both the taxpayer and employees, as long as they are structured properly.  People tend to ignore the fact that there are plenty of well funded pension plans operating just fine in municipalities across the country.  When people argue for lower pay and benefits for public employees, I always ask them, who exactly do you want teaching children at public schools or enforcing local laws?  High school dropouts?  Nobody is going to risk entering a profession, which, as you say, has little value in the public sector without some sort of long-term benefit to mitigate that risk.  I find many people who enter government work don't trade pay for "cushy benefits" but rather they trade uncertainty for certainty.  The pension provides this.  And to be honest, even a really crappy pension with terrible benefits to the employee would probably be enough to attract talented people.  I think the solution is simply SUSTAINABLE pension systems.

Jack

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2016, 07:28:42 AM »
Yes, police and firefighters are skills not generally used outside govt - but they are also employed in highly dangerous professions, with a lot of risk of injury or death (much like the military with its benefits).

No, they aren't.

Here is the list of the top 10 most dangerous jobs (as of 2014, because the other articles I found through a quick search were bullshit advertising-optimized slideshows):
  • Logging workers
  • Fishermen and related jobs
  • Aircraft pilots and flight engineers
  • Roofers
  • Refuse (trash/garbage) and recyclables collectors.
  • Farmers, ranchers, and other agriculture jobs.
  • Iron and steel workers.
  • Truck drivers and other commercial drivers.
  • Electrical power line workers.
  • First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers

As you can see, neither firefighter nor police officer even makes the list... and most of the jobs that do make the list pay even less!

nobody123

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2016, 08:04:41 AM »
...I think the solution is simply SUSTAINABLE pension systems.

Unfortunately, the definition of sustainable will never be agreed upon by the politicians in charge.  If you go super-conservative, you end up with a situation like the Postal Service is in, pre-funding billions of dollars in benefits that are based on a whole metric crapton of assumptions.  If you go too lenient, there's not enough money to pay current retirees.  People hate the thought of privatizing the pensions because Wall Street fat cats would profit from it, but they don't trust the incompetent politicians to keep their hands out of the pot.

I think defined contribution plans are the only way to go to get around those issues.  Put the money under the control of the employees as they earn it over the course of their career.  I would, however, mandate that the government use its bulk purchasing power to get the retiring employees the best possible price on an annuity if they choose to buy one with their 403(b) funds at the end of their career.

As far as having to boost salaries of the public employees to compensate for the lack of a guaranteed pension, I think that's BS.  We don't mandate people work in either the public and private sector, and each individual makes their choice on what job they want to work at.  Will a few individuals who are good at math jump ship because the pension was the major reason they were willing to do that job, sure.  But others will be more than happy to step into that vacated position for the other benefits that they may value more than the pension.

Schaefer Light

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2016, 08:16:39 AM »
...I think the solution is simply SUSTAINABLE pension systems.
I think defined contribution plans are the only way to go to get around those issues.  Put the money under the control of the employees as they earn it over the course of their career.
Precisely.  I wish we'd do the same thing with SS and force people to put a certain amount in their account.

Guses

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2016, 08:17:34 AM »
I was vested at five years, and I agree with you -- that's low.  I do think that if you're going to collect a pension, you should have put in a whole career with that company/department/entity.  I think ten is the absolute minimum that should qualify, and I'd really lean towards 15.

Forgive my bluntness but this is a really bad and short-sighted idea. Why does it matter how long you work in a place? Just pro-rate the benefits to the time worked.

These days, most people change jobs and or careers very frequently. People doing 1 thing their entire lives are few and far between.

Besides, defined benefits pensions are not inherently bad or more costly to the employer, the parameters just need to be adjusted so they make sense for all involved. For instance, instead of granting 2% per year worked, they could grant 1.5%, the employee contribution rate could be increased. There are many solutions.


FIPurpose

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2016, 08:26:23 AM »
No over the course of a career, I would say that pension benefits make up about 25% of annual pay for most public employees. For teachers I would think the break down is:
50% pay and healthcare
25% pension
25% vacation

You can't just cut pay across the board 25% and call it good. No one would accept that. If any business tried to do that, you'd see masses of people quitting or striking. Taking away the pension but increasing the pay 15% is still a loss, but at least it would ease the already large burden on the current generation. To people funding the pension now it feels more like this: "Hey the politicians we elected gave us a really nice permanent salary, and then they made our children pay for it. Sucks to be you right?"

COLA will help somewhat and at least it can help reduce the ridiculousness of the benefit, but it's not going to solve states who are <30% funded. They'll probably have to either cut future pensioners and still take money from taxes.

Jack

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2016, 08:29:58 AM »
IMO the real solution should be to abolish everything -- pensions, social security as it currently exists, the military retirement system, 401(k)s, etc. -- and just make everybody eligible for an IRA with a larger contribution limit (at least $30k or so, but preferably higher) that they can invest either with a private brokerage or in TSP funds. The contribution to this account should be required to be at least 15% of gross earned income each year and by default should be set to be invested in the TSP L fund.

There is no reason why the employer -- public or private -- should even be relevant in the first place!

(And obviously, public-sector employees should be paid the same as private-sector ones, after adjusting for differences in things like job security.)

FIPurpose

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2016, 08:32:35 AM »
I was vested at five years, and I agree with you -- that's low.  I do think that if you're going to collect a pension, you should have put in a whole career with that company/department/entity.  I think ten is the absolute minimum that should qualify, and I'd really lean towards 15.

Forgive my bluntness but this is a really bad and short-sighted idea. Why does it matter how long you work in a place? Just pro-rate the benefits to the time worked.

These days, most people change jobs and or careers very frequently. People doing 1 thing their entire lives are few and far between.

Besides, defined benefits pensions are not inherently bad or more costly to the employer, the parameters just need to be adjusted so they make sense for all involved. For instance, instead of granting 2% per year worked, they could grant 1.5%, the employee contribution rate could be increased. There are many solutions.

I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

Jmoody10

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #36 on: October 21, 2016, 08:43:47 AM »


I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.
[/quote]

Georgia's Teacher Retirement is 2% per year with a max of 80%. Vested after 10 years.

Guses

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2016, 08:45:31 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

onlykelsey

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #38 on: October 21, 2016, 08:48:51 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

Probably not.  Overall life expectancy is higher for women, but it's negligible if you start with a population that's already 70 and ask how long they'll live after that.  I imagine this varies by country, though...

Guses

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #39 on: October 21, 2016, 08:51:57 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

Probably not.  Overall life expectancy is higher for women, but it's negligible if you start with a population that's already 70 and ask how long they'll live after that.  I imagine this varies by country, though...

Hummm... I just checked and it is actually quite significant.

According to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html :

At 70, life expectancy for males is 73 and 83 for females.

This needs to be factored in pension plans.

onlykelsey

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2016, 08:55:36 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

Probably not.  Overall life expectancy is higher for women, but it's negligible if you start with a population that's already 70 and ask how long they'll live after that.  I imagine this varies by country, though...

Hummm... I just checked and it is actually quite significant.

According to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html :

At 70, life expectancy for males is 73 and 83 for females.

This needs to be factored in pension plans.


I think you're misreading a bit... when I look at 70 year olds, it says 70-year-old men are expected to live to 84.24, and women to 86.43. 

Of course there's also class, race, smoking, weight, exposure to abuse/war/trauma, etc that I imagine produce even bigger differences.

Guses

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2016, 08:57:05 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

Probably not.  Overall life expectancy is higher for women, but it's negligible if you start with a population that's already 70 and ask how long they'll live after that.  I imagine this varies by country, though...

Hummm... I just checked and it is actually quite significant.

According to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html :

At 70, life expectancy for males is 73 and 83 for females.

This needs to be factored in pension plans.


I think you're misreading a bit... when I look at 70 year olds, it says 70-year-old men are expected to live to 84.24, and women to 86.43. 

Of course there's also class, race, smoking, weight, exposure to abuse/war/trauma, etc that I imagine produce even bigger differences.

Yeah I was looking at the wrong column :)

Still is 2 years though or 15%.

FIPurpose

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #42 on: October 21, 2016, 09:01:59 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

I think since most women give up 1-2 years in child birth it probably more than evens out.

FIPurpose

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #43 on: October 21, 2016, 09:05:06 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

Probably not.  Overall life expectancy is higher for women, but it's negligible if you start with a population that's already 70 and ask how long they'll live after that.  I imagine this varies by country, though...

Hummm... I just checked and it is actually quite significant.

According to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html :

At 70, life expectancy for males is 73 and 83 for females.

This needs to be factored in pension plans.

Hmm lowest probability of death is between 9 and 11. Then it's all downhill from there. :P

aceyou

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #44 on: October 21, 2016, 09:05:13 AM »
I understand that the recipients of taxpayer-funded pension plans are very happy to have them.  But if I could make one change to public policy in the United States, at the state and local level at least, it would be to outlaw public pensions.  If 401(k) and Social Security is good enough for everyone else, it's good enough for state employees as well. 

Public sector unions and taxpayer-funded pensions--and yes, despite paycheck contributions, these pensions are heavily subsidized by taxpayer money--have a lot of pernicious effects.  First, it leads to a very unseemly quid pro quo between public sector unions that deliver votes to the politicians who in return deliver ever-more generous pensions or contribution terms.  Second, the pensions are almost always "gameable" such that people can artificially inflate their pensions with shady end-of-career antics.  Third, as a union that is literally organized against the taxpayers and the public interest, it places a substantial minority in direct conflict with the rest of the citizenry, and leads to an "entitlement mindset" among the unions.  Fourth, the pensions are NEVER fully funded, despite what any politician or union rep says. 

Ranting aside, for Mustachians who are geographically flexible and looking to settle down somewhere long-term, I would definitely consider the financial health of a state when choosing where to live.  The pensions will be paid out--the public sector unions are far more organized and politically connected than the dispersed general public, and so they will win.  This means taxes of all sorts will go up.  Valuable services may be reduced as well.  If you don't believe me, take a look at this link and see how enthusiastic you are about moving to Illinois:  https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/pensions-101-understanding-illinois-massive-government-worker-pension-crisis/

Illinois is probably the worst state in this regard, but there are plenty that are not far behind it.

Yeah, let's all race to the bottom!  Woo-hoo!  Team America, fuck yeah!

How would reforming one of the primary causes of the fiscal crises going in the states and localities be a "race to the bottom"?


Teacher here chiming in.  I see both points, but would like to defend the pensions.  Michigan is a good example of a properly run pension.

With regards to your claim that it is heavily taxpayer subsidized - Well, yes, my whole paycheck is subsidized by taxpayers, that's how public employees get paid?  I'm sorry to inconvenience everyone on that regard.  However, I don't see why it's so different than the private sector.  In the private sector, businesses often give bonuses, and matches into 401K accounts.  Instead of this, in public education, that money is put into a fund for my pension (which we also contribute to).  Here's the part that I think many don't realize...once we quit working, the school is off the hook for us.  So, just like companies only provide matches to the 401K's and bonuses while employed, so do the schools, and in turn, the taxpayers.  So, if we choose to set up a system where our yearly bonuses get put into a pension account as opposed to a bonus check and 401K match, I don't see an inherent problem there? 

With regards to comments that we shouldn't do them because they are ALL underfunded - That would like me saying "we should abolish 401K's because most companies rip us off with fees that are too high".  No, what we should do is work to improve the system so that fees are appropriate.  And some are properly funded.  Mine is currently being managed responsibly.  If some are underfunded, which is the case, that doesn't mean we should discard the idea, rather we need to make sure they are managed properly. 

Your claim that in any properly funded pension, taxes of all sorts will go up:  Again, no.  The fact that they are funded properly means that the schools annual contributions are such that the fund will self-sustain itself after we retire, at which point the schools, and thus you, are off the hook for the contributions.  The union in Michigan is working to make sure that these funds are not being stolen from, and thus protecting teachers, and taxpayers from a crisis down the road.  That is good for teachers, and also taxpayers, because if your teachers are getting ripped off, your quality of your children's education will follow suit.

I know not all states and systems work properly, and that I am in a fortunate position to be in a state with a well run pension, but to say that they are all mismanaged, or that unions are inherently bad, is incorrect. 

Also, I'd like to add that I'm a super conservative person fiscally and am saving over 50% of my paycheck in index funds.  So, it's not like I need this pension because I'm a flaming liberal or that I suck at saving.  I just think it gets a bad rap, that's all. 

Take care!
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 09:10:07 AM by aceyou »

onlykelsey

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #45 on: October 21, 2016, 09:08:24 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

I think since most women give up 1-2 years in child birth it probably more than evens out.

Given how rare pensions are for folks under 40, this is probably a more academic discussion, but if we focused solely on time survived after retirement, it seems like African-American men would get to retire over 10 years earlier than Asian-American women based on life expectancy.   If you started adjusting for wages earned during your career, it would get complex really fast. 

Guses

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #46 on: October 21, 2016, 09:10:24 AM »
I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

I am not familiar with US pensions but here, 2% per year of the 5 consecutive years of highest salary is fairly standard.

I agree that the retirement age needs to be in line with life expectancy. Does that mean that women have to retire 2-3 years later?

I think since most women give up 1-2 years in child birth it probably more than evens out.

Here, that time is pensionable and counts towards every benefit (vacation, seniority, etc).

Guses

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #47 on: October 21, 2016, 09:14:10 AM »

I think you're misreading a bit... when I look at 70 year olds, it says 70-year-old men are expected to live to 84.24, and women to 86.43. 

Of course there's also class, race, smoking, weight, exposure to abuse/war/trauma, etc that I imagine produce even bigger differences.

Thinking about this some more, I don't think it's fair to count from 70 years old onward. Men have much more probability to die early, even before a pension starts being paid out.

onlykelsey

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #48 on: October 21, 2016, 09:19:57 AM »

I think you're misreading a bit... when I look at 70 year olds, it says 70-year-old men are expected to live to 84.24, and women to 86.43. 

Of course there's also class, race, smoking, weight, exposure to abuse/war/trauma, etc that I imagine produce even bigger differences.

Thinking about this some more, I don't think it's fair to count from 70 years old onward. Men have much more probability to die early, even before a pension starts being paid out.


I think there is no way you can create a truly fair system that accounts for every aspect of a person (that they can't control), but it's especially interesting/confusing if you start looking at things like lifestyle choices in 20s-40s.  Those are the more dangerous years for men, but the primary cause of death is accidental death (ie not cancer or dying in war or childbirth, but more preventable things).  For women, having one child (especially a daughter) increases your life expectancy, but having three or more decreases it.  Being born to smokers decreases your lifespan even if you never smoke, and makes it more likely that you'll be a smoker by the time you're 25.  Of course that's your choice in some ways, but how do we adjust for the fact that because of something beyond your control (whether your parents smoked), you're more likely to smoke?

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Re: Future of State Pension Plans
« Reply #49 on: October 21, 2016, 09:21:59 AM »
Quote


I would be surprised to know of a public pension that is at 2%. I think most states are somewhere between 1 and 1.5. The other side is to increase minimum retirement age. If people are living 10 years longer, retirement should be moved up and any early retirement should come at reduction of benefit or self-funded.

Georgia's Teacher Retirement is 2% per year with a max of 80%. Vested after 10 years.

Trying to understand Georgia's pension website. (I tried looking through these one time. It's a nightmare trying to compare)

The 2% is a no-beneficiary no lump-sum plan.
If you designate a beneficiary, it looks like it's closer to 1.75%. They say it changes based on age, but I couldn't find a published equation.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 09:30:34 AM by FIPurpose »

 

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