Fork in the Road

[zephyr911]

Feedback requested!

My most recent stint on ANG orders has me rethinking my phased FIRE plan and becoming a guard bum a year from now. The following factors are in play:

1) I'm one (1) year away from locking in a deferred retirement in civil service, which is about the only thing keeping me right now (we had another discussion that helped convince me that milestone was worth reaching, and thanks). I like my job environment and co-workers but am stagnant here and tired of the inflexible hours and general lack of mobility; I've also lost my motivation to try to move up when rare opportunities do occur. I am still 7 years from ANG retirement; my service there is more interesting, pays better, and will give me better lifelong bennies than civil service.
2) DW just hit 1 year on her current job, got a raise, and is happy as a pig in shit, increasing my confidence about taking a leap. Finances are mostly separate, but this helps ensure that I won't need to help her with anything; bottom line, less hesitation on my part.
3) Baseline ANG income is $15K; I also just learned about a new system to volunteer for extra duty (with travel, which I love) at $250-300/day. I'm investigating the administrative details.
4) I've successfully pushed SR over 60% and 75% seems realistic soon; I'm maxing TSP and rapidly repaying $20K in TSP loans; they'll be amortized within a year. I just reduced my TH to under $3k combined (DAC+ANG) and am looking to save at least $1k/mo of that as a test.
5) Consumer debt is ~$35k - I should easily eliminate it within a year. This includes a car loan at 2.25%* and credit cards at 0% (home improvements, solar, etc) with total payments over $550, so eliminating it would be key to a reduced-income scenario.
6) Real estate (my dream FIRE job): my rental LLC is steadily growing and I can count on it for at least two deals annually as buyer agent; I also have a decent field of friend/family prospects that could snowball once I have no FT job and can actively market and support deals.
7) Rentals are currently profiting $6-700/mo. I'd prefer to reinvest this all but am comfortable having it on tap as reserve income.
8) Health insurance cost would actually go down - currently I pay about $250/mo under FEHB, but I'd become eligible for TRS at $210.
9) DW is comfortably paying our sub-$600 mortgage.
10) Personal NW is $260K+ and climbing/accelerating. Total a year from now assuming flat markets, $325-350K. I'd obviously cut back on new investments but would leave the pile alone and add whatever I could; any emergency withdrawals would run 25% total (15% brackets + 10% penalty).
11) If this doesn't work out somehow, I'm pretty confident I can dive back into my current line of work at $60-100K+ within a few months; it's a high-turnover, low-unemployment town with steady growth, and I have friends all over.

SUMMING UP:
Looking at early Q4 2016, I could have no debt other than rental mortgages, basic monthly costs well under $2K, reliable average monthly income over $2K, and plenty of opportunities to earn more, but still sleep in 300 days a year, play with dogs, and do most of the housework while DW works. I think this is what I want, and I think it has more than enough safety margin built in - but I wonder if I'm missing something. Ideas, questions, and/or experience with similar attempts are all welcome.

*further details if desired, but probably not relevant to this case study

[zephyr911]

Bump

[FrugalFan]

I'm nowhere near FIRE yet, but I thought I would reply since I always enjoy reading your posts. I had to look up a bunch of your acronyms though! I would say if you can pay off the consumer debt and everything else is looking good, why not go for it? One question though; what happens in 7 years when you retire from ANG? What will replace that income? A pension? Your rentals?

[FrugalFan]

I forgot to mention that I am in a similar situation with the potential to scale back now though we are nowhere near FI, and have been obsessing over what to do.

[2ndTimer]

Re:  Being a Guard bum:  The Hub did that for a while.  Wound up not being paid or credited for about two years of service.  This is not uncommon.  The Guard pay system is seriously screwed up.

[Dicey]

Well, I'd like to help, but

1.) Too many acronyms
2.) Consumer debt? You're thinking of quitting (something) and you still have consumer debt*? Fuggedaboutit.

*I don't give a rip about mortgage debt, but consumer debt? In the paraphrased words of Mr. McEnroe, you cannot be serious.

[BTDretire]

Sorry for the detour.
When I read "fork in the road"
I was reminded of Yogi Berra, who just died.
He said, "When you come to a fork in the road, take it."
Or a new one to me, "Listen up, because I've got nothing 
to say, and I'm only going to say it once."

 Back to regular programing.

[Retired To Win]

Feedback requested!
... Looking at early Q4 2016, I could have no debt other than rental mortgages, basic monthly costs well under $2K, reliable average monthly income over $2K, and plenty of opportunities to earn more, but still sleep in 300 days a year, play with dogs, and do most of the housework while DW works. I think this is what I want, and I think it has more than enough safety margin built in - but I wonder if I'm missing something. Ideas, questions, and/or experience with similar attempts are all welcome.

I think you're in pretty good shape; just a few tweaks and you are good to go (IMHO).  (1)Pay off the consumer debt (as you are planning to do within a year) before you FIRE.  (2)Set up and fund a cash savings emergency reserve to cover 6 months of your living expenses. (About $12K should do it).  (3)Do lock in that deferred retirement deal.  (4)Review your vehicle situation and decide whether going to an older car is for you (or at least commit/project to keeping your current car for a LONG time). (5)And make sure you've got your health insurance situation covered well enough (which sounds like you may already have) so that an unforeseen health issue doesn't wreck your finances all to hell.

Other than that... good luck.

[zephyr911]

I'm nowhere near FIRE yet, but I thought I would reply since I always enjoy reading your posts. I had to look up a bunch of your acronyms though! I would say if you can pay off the consumer debt and everything else is looking good, why not go for it? One question though; what happens in 7 years when you retire from ANG? What will replace that income? A pension? Your rentals?

We're terrible about acronyms in the military. My bad. ;)
Good question regarding ANG retirement. Assuming I do retire at year 20 (age 44), projected income bottoms out the next year at ~$2500/mo, and rises as properties are de-leveraged. The biggest unknown at that point is healthcare cost. TRS is heavily subsidized with low deductibles, and the Retired Reserve version is almost $1K/mo, so we'll be looking for HDHP+HSA to keep costs in the ballpark. I would keep a close eye on the options as things evolve over the next few years and probably just look to increase earnings if low-cost options start to disappear.
I also expect to start that period with a cash surplus from real estate deals. Acting as my LLC's buying agent will net ~$5k this year with substantial increases every year through late 2019 (I save 100%). Once we stop buying, payouts start at about $2K/mo, so I'm back to a 50% SR in 2020-2022 ($2k/mo) plus any additional commissions I earn if I'm still having fun and want keep doing it.
That expected investible cash from age 40 to 44 isn't factored into my worst-case forecast, but should exceed $100K; invested @ 5% WR (because it's a bridging strategy and doesn't need to last forever), it'd bump the low point over $3K to offset any surprise cost increases. I should also have the flexibility to work more if things go off track.
Overall, using conservative growth rates for investments and what I think are easily achievable levels of participation in each PT job, I'm looking at a monthly average of $3k+ through age 60 when pensions start to kick in.

Consumer debt / car / cash reserve

In case I was unclear: I'm not even considering doing this before the debt is gone.
The car is a 2012 Volt, and math doesn't favor a trade - resale value is poor, operating costs are ridiculously low, and it has 5 years of powertrain warranty left. (Regardless, I'm committed to EV for personal reasons, and would just delay the transition if the car were a hindrance). I plan on owning it indefinitely.
That's a good point regarding cash reserves, and I'll probably play this by ear once all the other boxes are checked. If I'm lined up for an immediate stint on active duty, my income will actually increase in the near term, so I might sneak out with less. Otherwise, it makes all the sense in the world. I'd hate to have to ask DW for money during my vacation. xD