Author Topic: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund  (Read 5216 times)

One Noisy Cat

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Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« on: October 24, 2015, 08:21:45 PM »
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/10/21/biff-couldve-just-bought-stocks/


The Biff Tannen character in "Back to the Future 2" briefly had a book giving him sports scores for the next 30 years. But suppose instead he had invested $10,000 (about $22,113.85 in today's currency) in an S & P 500 index fund. How much would he have? About $255,000! Plenty of money to make like a tree and leave.

tvan

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2015, 08:30:44 PM »
He'd have a lot more doubling his money on every single bet thousands upon thousands of time sports betting.

tvan

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2015, 08:30:52 PM »
If he knew the future of course

iamlindoro

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2015, 08:50:28 PM »
Reminds me of this scene from Silicon Valley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IARfrdvIIMU

Retired To Win

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2015, 08:05:39 AM »
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/10/21/biff-couldve-just-bought-stocks/

The Biff Tannen character in "Back to the Future 2" briefly had a book giving him sports scores for the next 30 years. But suppose instead he had invested $10,000 (about $22,113.85 in today's currency) in an S & P 500 index fund. How much would he have? About $255,000! Plenty of money to make like a tree and leave.

How about if Biff had had a book giving him the price history on a bunch of stocks?!  He could have gone long, gone short, done options... and made a killing every time.  He could have just basically printed money all day long!

The_Dude

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2015, 08:37:25 AM »
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/10/21/biff-couldve-just-bought-stocks/


The Biff Tannen character in "Back to the Future 2" briefly had a book giving him sports scores for the next 30 years. But suppose instead he had invested $10,000 (about $22,113.85 in today's currency) in an S & P 500 index fund. How much would he have? About $255,000! Plenty of money to make like a tree and leave.

Given his very first bet made him a million dollars I don't think the index fund offers a very good comparison.

patrickza

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2015, 04:36:07 PM »
I'd also want the book on share price history. Buy a bunch of apple at a few bucks a piece and just wait for the iphone... Sell at a few hundred a piece and then buy the index.

Get a job at google early on. Doesn't matter what it's for.

Hindsight is perfect, for the rest of us, we just spread the risk and wait a little longer.

fattest_foot

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2015, 10:28:30 AM »
Not sure I can take this article very seriously.

Quote
But when they get to 2015 from 1985, a leap of thirty years, they arrive in a dystopia in which Marty’s nemesis, Biff Tannen, is rich and powerful. Tannen was able to parlay a purloined sports almanac from the future into a gambling fortune and casino empire.

Biff went back in time from 2015 to 1955, to give his younger self the almanac (leading to an error in the movie where Biff returns to the original 2015 timeline instead of an alternate timeline where he gave himself the almanac).

Marty and Doc then go back to 1985, where Biff has used the almanac sometime in the late 1950's to amass his fortune. It's in the alternate 1985 where he's built an empire.

My problem here is that even if an 18 year old Biff Tannen were able to come up with $10,000 in 1955, there's no way he would've been even remotely the mogul he became. He's got twenty-eight floors to his casino.

Guses

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2015, 10:47:53 AM »
Not sure I can take this article very seriously.

Quote
But when they get to 2015 from 1985, a leap of thirty years, they arrive in a dystopia in which Marty’s nemesis, Biff Tannen, is rich and powerful. Tannen was able to parlay a purloined sports almanac from the future into a gambling fortune and casino empire.


My problem here is that even if an 18 year old Biff Tannen were able to come up with $10,000 in 1955, there's no way he would've been even remotely the mogul he became. He's got twenty-eight floors to his casino.

Are you arguing that it would be impossible to build such an empire between late 1950's and 1985?

AZDude

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2015, 10:54:31 AM »
I would argue that a Las Vegas mobster probably would have killed him sometime around his fifth straight big win.

fattest_foot

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2015, 11:11:03 AM »
Not sure I can take this article very seriously.

Quote
But when they get to 2015 from 1985, a leap of thirty years, they arrive in a dystopia in which Marty’s nemesis, Biff Tannen, is rich and powerful. Tannen was able to parlay a purloined sports almanac from the future into a gambling fortune and casino empire.


My problem here is that even if an 18 year old Biff Tannen were able to come up with $10,000 in 1955, there's no way he would've been even remotely the mogul he became. He's got twenty-eight floors to his casino.

Are you arguing that it would be impossible to build such an empire between late 1950's and 1985?

By simply investing in an index fund? Yes.

We're not talking about Biff amassing enough to FIRE. We're talking casino mogul.

Guses

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2015, 11:26:54 AM »
Not sure I can take this article very seriously.

Quote
But when they get to 2015 from 1985, a leap of thirty years, they arrive in a dystopia in which Marty’s nemesis, Biff Tannen, is rich and powerful. Tannen was able to parlay a purloined sports almanac from the future into a gambling fortune and casino empire.


My problem here is that even if an 18 year old Biff Tannen were able to come up with $10,000 in 1955, there's no way he would've been even remotely the mogul he became. He's got twenty-eight floors to his casino.

Are you arguing that it would be impossible to build such an empire between late 1950's and 1985?

By simply investing in an index fund? Yes.

We're not talking about Biff amassing enough to FIRE. We're talking casino mogul.

Gotcha, for some reason I thought that you were talking about the actual movie plot and saying that you could not figure out how Biff could become a mogul using the almanac to bet on games and make billions.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2015, 08:55:41 PM »
After Biff made a million on his 21st birthday, he changed the course of history. The almanac should have some error in it after his 21st birthday and not 100% accurate.

Uncle Scrooge

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2015, 12:20:03 PM »
After Biff made a million on his 21st birthday, he changed the course of history. The almanac should have some error in it after his 21st birthday and not 100% accurate.

Any time the future was altered, photographs, newspapers etc changed automatically. So if Biff altered the future with his betting, the Almanac would change accordingly and his sports scores would still be correct.

RyanAtTanagra

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2015, 01:35:42 PM »
After Biff made a million on his 21st birthday, he changed the course of history. The almanac should have some error in it after his 21st birthday and not 100% accurate.

Any time the future was altered, photographs, newspapers etc changed automatically. So if Biff altered the future with his betting, the Almanac would change accordingly and his sports scores would still be correct.

Holy shit, I never thought of that.  I always had the same thought as clarkfan.

eyePod

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2015, 01:51:35 PM »
Hot Tub Time Machine - Lougle instead of Google! Has some language but still fun.  https://youtu.be/SkNLck0Gsto?t=210

StetsTerhune

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Re: Forget the sports book, Biff, buy an index fund
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2015, 02:22:21 PM »
 "Lougle"  has always been my theory on Warren Buffett. Imagine if you went back in time to 1950, without any preparation but with a general sense of how the next 65 years would look. Wouldn't your investing over the next 65 years look pretty much like Warren Buffett's?