So we're rapidly approaching the 21 day all time record for longest government shutdown in US history, and Trump is saying he is "almost definitely" going to declare a national emergency. Which, as we've previously discusses, is probably his only face-saving way to re-open the government without getting any border wall funding.
I'm still trying to decided if the 21 day record is a good motivator or not. Like is Trump eager to avoid being responsible for the longest shutdown in history, or is he eager to BE responsible for the longest shutdown in history? Like he has the biggest hands, and the best words, and the tallest buildings, and he has spent his life counterfactually bragging about having all kinds of personal records. Is "longest shutdown" just another shiny prize for his metaphorical trophy case? Or is it something he fears will tarnish he reputation? I'm still on the fence on this one.
My prediction: If Trump does not get a face-saving compromise, he'll declare a face saving emergency (longest shutdown in history is the trigger), announce his intent to "start" reallocating funds from other sources to build the wall, reopen the government, and wait for either Congress or the courts to bail him out. (Both parties in Congress are terrified about the long term ramifications of this potential executive power grab, and are unlikely to let it happen or continue if it does, so some kind of mutual, face-saving compromise would happen eventually).
In the unlikely event that Congress fails to fix it, and if the courts say that his "emergency" end run around Article 1, Section 8 is OK, he'll say he was vindicated. If the courts say that the Constitution does not allow him to use a declaration of an emergency as a pretext to misappropriate other funds build a wall without authorization from Congress, Trump can then tell his supporters that the deep state liberals and idiot judges are sacrificing the "safety" of our nation (remember his ban on Muslims), and he will keep fighting (with tweets).
Trump does not care about a wall. He cares about using it as propaganda to manipulate his supporters.
Nobody (other than a few crazy libertarians) wants "open borders." By changing the term "wall" (paid for by Mexico!) to a less concrete concept of "border security," Trump and the GOP have already dumped the ingredients for compromise into the bowl. Everybody wants "border security." Perhaps it can be provided in part by maintaining, improving and extending some of the current walls and "barriers," most of which we would have done anyway. If Trump needs to brag about a big number, just relabel some of the giant military budget as "border security" and call it a win.