First, I want to thank everyone for their considerate and thoughtful responses. We are thankful to be in a position where it is a choice and not a necessity, and we're still very much evaluating the pros and cons. A little more information and thoughts from the comments I've received thus far.
-Kitchen and eating out. Thanks
@former player for your thoughts on the kitchen size. The reason I posted here and not in the kid section is because I was hoping for broader feedback including things that weren't specific to kids, so I really appreciate you chiming in. In a lot of ways the smaller kitchen will be more efficient, although the smaller storage is pretty awkward (specifically pots and pans will be the biggest issue). We have a giant island currently but it is an awkward shape so a lot of it isn't really useful much of the time. The smaller kitchen is still plenty big enough. My brother is a hobby gourmet chef and he makes amazing meals in his kitchen which is half the size of the smaller one we're considering. This concern is really more my husband's than mine since he does 95% of the cooking, often while I'm busy doing another chore in our giant house; in a smaller house I would probably share the cooking since there would be fewer other chores to handle. To clarify on the "eating out more" comment...it's not so much that we want to eat out with reckless abandon. It's more, if he wants a break, there isn't the guilt of "we shouldn't spend the money". We are pretty frugal in our eating out: we often split meals, hardly ever order drinks, go out for lunch more than dinner since it's cheaper. There are a few places we like within walking distance of the new place, with dog-friendly seating on the patio.
-HOA vs. property taxes...in our current home we pay approx. 18k/yr in property taxes and $90 for the community HOA. The new home would still have the $90 HOA plus another $210 for the townhome-specific HOA (common structure, pool, etc). The property taxes on the new place would be $9022/yr. It really hurt not being able to deduct all of the property taxes last year. Honestly, with the lower utilities, losing the pool maintenance, drastically lower yard maintenance, we would come out so far ahead despite the higher HOA.
-kids, space, etc. I think the layout would still enable everyone some private space/time when they need it. There are 3 bedrooms, the downstairs living area (which is pretty small and my biggest concern), and a loft which would be an office area where we could go if the kids were hanging out with their friends downstairs. Aside from the financial side, though, the single biggest advantage we see is the impact for our daughter who is 7. She is a social butterfly and is a child who just requires...more. There are NO little girls her age at our end of the neighborhood at all. In the new area we're considering (pretty much as far as you can get from our current house and still be in the same elementary school) there are SO many kids. Every time we go to her friend's house there, she sees friends she didn't even know lived there. They are in and out of each other's homes, not tucked away in their giant houses playing alone like where we live. She told me today that she would rather live in a smaller house and be closer to her friends and that she "doesn't care that much" about all of her stuff. Coming from my collector, this is huge! My 9 year old son also has friends in the area so I'm not concerned about him. His two closest friends are within walking distance of our current home but they never even get together outside of school. There would still be two living areas, upstairs loft and downstairs, so I think that's enough space to get away. We currently have a great room, office, "piano" room, playroom, loft, and everyone has their own bedroom. When my oldest (18) leaves for college across the country in August we'll have another unused room. He doesn't plan to move back home and says "do it"...his dad (we're divorced) has two spare rooms so if something happened he would still have a place to stay when he's here.
-space/outdoor stuff/townhome living. The weather is almost perfect most of the year here, so I'm not concerned about needing indoor space to get away/blow off steam during harsh weather. As for storage, there is a two car garage with enough space to store the things we need, and a giant under stairs storage where some of the stuff in the garage (camping/holiday) could go. I'm excited about decluttering all the excess crap we've accumulated though in our giant house. The fenced large patio/small yard is big enough to have a fair bit of seating for hanging out which is possible most of the year here. One of the things that has caused us to rule out other, newer townhomes we've seen (in addition to higher HOAs) is the short wall around the patio. This one has a high enough fence/wall to contain our dog and provides much more space for her. It's at a dead-end walkway so there would be no foot traffic; she barks at everyone who goes down the street currently. I do worry a little about shared walls, but I have several friends in the community and we've talked candidly about it. It doesn't seem to be too bad. The townhome is an end unit so there would only be one shared set of walls.
-financial...the primary motivator. We have always figured we would stay here and work until our youngest graduates high school and then sell and downsize to a LCOL area and retire. After running the numbers we're pretty sure we could shave at least 4 years off our plan, fully fund college for the younger two, and retire in place if we move. If either of us lost our jobs we could survive indefinitely on either of our salaries, which is not the case currently.
@SimpleLifer Ha ha, message me, we can exchange details if you want. If the HOA/property tax exchange wasn't so dramatic I would be more concerned about the HOA for sure. I've heard horror stories about how high they can be, but thankfully it's not bad for this development.
@Lichen For decluttering we currently use VVA for regular pickup. I've been on a decluttering kick for...a long time. My mom is a borderline hoarder and I am trying to reduce our stuff because it stresses me out. With such a large house things seem to accumulate easily without making the place look cluttered so I'm working my way through the cupboards and closets and drawers...it's laborious. For the nicer stuff and furniture I've recently gotten in touch with a local refugee group and was able to pass along some of the bigger stuff in good shape that VVA doesn't accept.
@mm1970 Thanks for the support; even without the downsizing element it's helpful to hear how things work with a family of 4 in a small space.
Anyway, we haven't made any decisions on making an immediate move to the place we saw last weekend, but we definitely know we want to downsize. I appreciate all of the thoughts you all have shared; I'd love to hear more if anyone else has things to consider that haven't been mentioned or their own anecdotes to share.