We'll have two options in 10 years, ridiculously cheap cultured meat, or much more expensive real meat that is organic, local and sustainably raised.
Why do you think we won't have the option for mass produced animal factory meat? I don't see those operations going out of business anytime soon because they are the most profitable way to meet the demands of the marketplace, and the marketplace doesn't appear to be changing in the direction you predict.
Well the market for meat hasn't been changing because cultured meat isnt in the market yet.
Generally, we are seeing the extremes of markets do well, either really cheap stuff or really expensive craftsman stuff does well. The stuff in the middle gets squeezed out.
The price of cultured meat has dropped from about $350,000/pound in 2013 to $50 in mid 2018, and according to a friend of mine who works in R+D in the industry at one of the leading cultured meat producers it's actually closer to 30 now. We're going to start seeing it in the market in restaurants and some grocery stores probably this year. As the research continues and more companies enter the research and development of it, the technology will dramatically increase and the price will dramatically decrease. It's very likely that within 10 years the price of a pound of cultured ground beef could be less than a dollar. When the price of cultured meat is less (maybe even significantly cheaper) than the price of ground beef, the mass produced factory meat gets stuck in the middle. If cultured meat costs less and tastes the same (or even better which is very possible given the ability to manipulate taste/nutrients), the market will quickly adopt cultured meat and mass produced factory meat is gone. This could happen really quickly. There will always be a market for the really fancy, local "craftsman" meat, and there will be a market for the cheap cultured meat. The factory meat in the middle gets eliminated.
I suggest doing some research on what companies are doing with cultured meat. It's really interesting and is IMO the direction that meat production will inevitably end up in. They are even creating cultured steaks and fish now. Also, if the tech is as clean as it seems like it could be, cultured meat may be the most important technology in climate change and population growth.
There's another thread about food snobbery, and maybe I'm going to sound like a food snob, but I'm skeptical about cultured meat. I can see how cheap cultured meat could change the market for food, but I have my doubts about scientists doing a better job than nature. Tang isn't orange juice, vinyl isn't leather, margarine isn't butter, and I seriously doubt scientists can really make cultured meat like a real steak.
Skepticism aside, having choices is good. I hope scientists can make a product that helps the environment and that people like. Some people like Tang and margarine. Good for them. Right now, though, my vision of cultured meats ends up being something closer to soylent green than a Porterhouse from the "replicator" Star Trek. I'd love to be wrong, and have cultured meat turn out to be great, but I think it will happen about the same time as my jetpack.
Orange juice isn't orange juice either...it's stale sugar water flavoured with customized perfume to smell and taste like orange juice. They even have regional perfume flavours because different populations have different expectations of what orange juice should taste like.
What you think is nature is actually produced by the exact same companies that make literal perfume.
If you were to drink "fresh squeezed" orange juice from the storage tank before the perfume is added, it would taste like sugar water.
People already chow down on hiiiighly chemically processed meat that barely resembles the natural animal source it came from and primarily gets its flavour and texture from science. Just look at how much processed cheese gets consumed, and it barely resembles cheese.
Food that gets its taste from science is already reality, and people shovel it down their gullets by the pound. I doubt they will be able to distinguish a lab sourced hot dog from a pig sourced hot dog, or chicken McNugget, or frozen fish stick, or prefab hamburger patty, etc.
Sure, there might be more of a challenge replicating a filet mignon, but it might cost less and taste better than crappy cuts of beef. Who knows?
However, the reviews on the flavour of the best lab ground beef are already saying that it tastes great. So I don't think that fantastic tasting lab meat is as far off as you think it is.
At the very least, it's already at a level that if it were affordable to produce, it could completely replace cows in all processed meat out there, like fast food chains and frozen meals, which is A LOT of the meat consumed these days.