Author Topic: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?  (Read 18590 times)

beltim

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2013, 06:56:11 PM »
The evidence is very subjective.  I'm sure you and I could both find and present lots of facts explaining why SS will still be around.  We could also find lots of facts for why it wont be. Im still quite young and even the latest projections don't go out to my expected retirement dates. (Although like most on this blog I plan to retire way before then).

Not really.  Sure, demographic trends can change a bit, but that affects things by a few percentage points.  And projections are run for 75 years out, meaning Social Security is at least 75% funded for those who will be born in 2020 or so.

http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #51 on: September 20, 2013, 06:56:48 PM »
Yes, I would forgo the social security payments.

I guess I don't see giving away a benefit you have already paid for without getting anything in return to assist you with making your retirement more secure is fair deal at all.  To me, this view, although very wonderful and utopian, is a bit anti-mustachian.  I truly hope we are all in a financial position one day to share this view and that we can create something that wouldn't get undone as a wasteful poverty program to take care of the 47%.

Here is an interesting post on the crazy results caused by means testing of general pensions in Australia... very anti-mustachian behavior indeed.

We are describing "bludgers" on this thread. The ones who keep their earnings low so as to claim more welfare. The ones that will blow a superannuation pot of $500,000 so they can claim the age pension of $13,000 a year + health care card.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/anti-mustachian-behaviour-as-a-cultural-phenomenon/msg136731/#msg136731

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #52 on: September 20, 2013, 07:10:21 PM »
  As I understand it there is trust which currently has about $2.7 trillion dollars in it.  If the slowly phase out the tax over a period of years and draw down current reserves they could continue to fund it.  Its not perfect but I don't see why we should continue a bad system just because there isn't a perfect alternative.

Under your system, why shouldn't the 50 million members of Gen X fight like hell to get its share of the $2.7 trillion dollars out of the ss trust fund immediately and paid into their new retirement accounts?  Don't you think that doing otherwise would be confiscating what Gen X has paid in during its life time?

Nicholas

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #53 on: September 20, 2013, 07:36:22 PM »

Not really.  Sure, demographic trends can change a bit, but that affects things by a few percentage points.  And projections are run for 75 years out, meaning Social Security is at least 75% funded for those who will be born in 2020 or so.

http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html

Interesting link.  Paying 100% or more for 75% of the benefit is not what I would call reassuring though.  I think it is way more fragile than it appears and 75 years is a very long time to try to project sustainability.  Throw in a few more recessions and increased life spans and maybe its 50%.  Maybe it will be around and maybe it won't I do not plan on holding my breath or betting my retirement on it.

NumberJohnny5

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #54 on: September 20, 2013, 07:38:57 PM »
I'm virtually positive that social security will be around when we retire. When looking at numbers, I figure on a 50-75% payout.

As for what I'm planning on, I'm planning on having enough to not need Social Security. While the chance of it not being there is low, it is high enough that I feel the need to plan around it.

I disagree with having it means tested. It sounds great...but long-term it fails miserably. Why save and save and save, constantly doing without; when instead I can spend spend spend, enjoy the money now, AND have retirement taken care of? Yes, I know many on this site will say "so you can retire way early, you're saving to buy extra years of retirement!" There's a major flaw with that thinking though, and that's assuming that most (or even, a large portion of) the population will think the same way. I think what would happen, is the number of people adequately saving for retirement will go down (and that number is already dangerously low), and there will be an even larger burden on SS and other programs (food stamps, section 8 housing, etc.).

BTW, ministers can opt-out of social security, but only for ministerial income (i.e. a minister working at McDonald's will still have Social Security taxes taken out of his fast-food paycheck). From what I've read he/she would also be ineligible for Medicare, though I'm not sure I'd agree with that (I mean, if they're still having to pay those taxes on other employment).

matchewed

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #55 on: September 20, 2013, 08:04:51 PM »
A.  In what way are you being smacked around financially? and B.  Cute phrases like mortgaging our futures is meaningless, seriously what the hell does that mean?

A.  First of all, you yourself are saying that I should pay in the same amount to social security but are unwilling - by taking your share of the pain - to help ensure that my benefits are roughly equal to your benefits.  That seems like a gigantic smack.

B.  Let's see, how about the US government taking from the social security and not repaying the debt thereby causing a larger SS shortfall, how about bumping SS benefits for retirees even if they did not bump the rates at which they needed to pay in, how about promising gigantic pensions (that start as early as 50) to state and local government workers and then not properly funding them thereby ensuring default or major tax increases to balance these accounts, how about jacking tuition higher than inflation for 30 years and making it impossible to get a good paying job without a degree, and how about moving Gen X to 401(k) plans and then offering only generational cuts to medicare just in time to deplete their life savings on health care costs when they enter their retirements?

The benefits haven't been equal for a long time. That isn't a smack it's managing social security to ensure it is there for future generations.

And to your B. You seem to need quite a bit more education regarding social security. Current contributions from tax payers meet all social security obligations. What gets borrowed against is the surplus. There is no shortfall currently. What do pensions have to do with ss? What does tuition have to do with ss? What do any of these things have to do with your claim that they are mortgaging our future which you still seem to be unable to explain? You just air a laundry list of things you seem to not fully understand the complexity behind and then blame it all on government.

You're grasping at straws here. Going off of wild speculation is no way to actually make any policy decisions or to come to any conclusions of the future. Enjoy living that life where all these things are set against you in your mind. I'll stick to my world which doesn't look that bad and will probably be just fine, and if it isn't I'm already saving for my future so why am I worried? Oh wait... I'm not.

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #56 on: September 20, 2013, 08:10:25 PM »
Interesting link.  Paying 100% or more for 75% of the benefit is not what I would call reassuring though... Maybe it will be around and maybe it won't I do not plan on holding my breath or betting my retirement on it.

Because it is highly funded, it will be much easier, from both a financial and political perspective to "shore up" SS for Gen X and Y rather than trying to eliminate or means test it and risk having Gen X and Y demand to have their payments refunded.  I doubt that anyone on this website is betting their retirement on SS but nevertheless it is one of the three "legs" of retirement.  The sooner we can figure out what this leg is really worth - without calls from the right for its complete elimination - the sooner we can get on with the work of saving for our retirements in an efficient manner.

The same goes for medicare but as beltim and msilenus very succinctly pointed out in earlier posts, that is a much larger problem.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2013, 04:41:13 AM by prof61820 »

Luck better Skill

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #57 on: September 20, 2013, 08:42:47 PM »
I am part of the school that has been raised to believe they will not get SS or medicare.  I am planning my retirement as though these resources will not be around.  My parents and I have very similar political views however on SS we differ drastically. They have paid into their whole lives and rightly expect to be paid. I look at it as though I am paying for something I will never benefit from. I will gladly lose that money if it means this program is ended in its current form.


Why do you think that, despite all the evidence to the contrary?

  Like Nicholas I consider SS a tax I will never benefit from.  As a younger mustachian expect you will never see SS.  There is already some means testing where the government keeps part of your SS check to pay for Medicare.  I fully expect that to increase to where my generation never see SS. 
  SS could be salvaged by pushing back the retirement age, removing the cap on taxable income, increasing the tax.  The problem is neither party has the political will to make that happen.  Complicating the matter is trillions in US national debt and trillions more in intergovernmental borrowing.  The result is SS will transform in major ways before I reach an age to receive payments.  That change will be so great there is no way to factor in what will be left of SS when I retire.

msilenus

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #58 on: September 20, 2013, 11:40:59 PM »
Interesting link.  Paying 100% or more for 75% of the benefit is not what I would call reassuring though.  I think it is way more fragile than it appears and 75 years is a very long time to try to project sustainability.  Throw in a few more recessions and increased life spans and maybe its 50%.  Maybe it will be around and maybe it won't I do not plan on holding my breath or betting my retirement on it.

Why is that not reassuring?  Increase funding 33%, and you close the gap entirely forever.  U.S. tax burden as share of GDP is about 26%.  Germany is 40%, Switzerland is 29%, Canada is 32%, UK is 39%, Australia 31%.  SS is predicting exactly 2% GDP increase in program cost through the next seventy years.  That's real money, to be sure, but it's a check our economy can cash if it's a benefit we want to keep.  This is a simple question of priorities.  Do we want to continue to have this wildly low tax burden so badly that we'll take the deep cuts to SS?  "No" is a perfectly fine answer.  (Those are Heritage numbers from 2012.)

I'm also not sure why you think the SS actuaries are wrong.  They're pretty good.  Are you familiar with their analysis at a level where you could actually say with certainty *what* they're predicting for longevity and economic cycles?  (It certainly does not seem so.)  If not, how can you assume that you're more pessimistic than they are?

Luck better Skill

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #59 on: September 21, 2013, 06:44:59 AM »
Interesting link.  Paying 100% or more for 75% of the benefit is not what I would call reassuring though.  I think it is way more fragile than it appears and 75 years is a very long time to try to project sustainability.  Throw in a few more recessions and increased life spans and maybe its 50%.  Maybe it will be around and maybe it won't I do not plan on holding my breath or betting my retirement on it.

Why is that not reassuring?  Increase funding 33%, and you close the gap entirely forever.  U.S. tax burden as share of GDP is about 26%.  Germany is 40%, Switzerland is 29%, Canada is 32%, UK is 39%, Australia 31%.  SS is predicting exactly 2% GDP increase in program cost through the next seventy years.  That's real money, to be sure, but it's a check our economy can cash if it's a benefit we want to keep.  This is a simple question of priorities.  Do we want to continue to have this wildly low tax burden so badly that we'll take the deep cuts to SS?  "No" is a perfectly fine answer.  (Those are Heritage numbers from 2012.)

I'm also not sure why you think the SS actuaries are wrong.  They're pretty good.  Are you familiar with their analysis at a level where you could actually say with certainty *what* they're predicting for longevity and economic cycles?  (It certainly does not seem so.)  If not, how can you assume that you're more pessimistic than they are?

  SS actuaries are wrong because they do not include historical events like deflation, inflation, market crashes, housing bubbles, etc.  Their numbers are based on a constant expansion of the population, salaries increases, more workers at higher wages, with no increase in estates or other tax saving methods.

  SS by itself is salvageable.   The problem is overall government overspending.  Dropping your cell phone data plan but added 12 premium channels on cable does not help your budget.  There is no vault of money in the SS trust, see treasury IOW's.  In order to pull against the trust the Federal Government must reduce spending in other parts of the budget or borrow more money. 

  At the end of the day taxes are going up and Federal spending is going down.  Many economist have already accept that fact.  What programs are cut by how much is the variable. 

BlueMR2

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #60 on: September 21, 2013, 09:29:09 AM »
Not really.  I'm not counting on either, but expect to pay for both of them.  I don't mind taking care of people that need the help, and I'm able to get by just fine under those worst case scenarios.

Medicare has it's problems, but seems to be reasonably well constructed overall.  I really wish it had been reworked instead of getting Obamacare piled onto us.  I think the same objectives could have been met with less resistance and in a more efficient manner.

Social Security though was a poorly thought out, apparently not planned out well (if at all), and horribly executed version of a good idea.  Too many false assumptions made at the time it was initiated.  It therefore suffers from the same issue that many businesses do as they grow.  Population growth is not a constant linear thing.  Cost of living is not either.  Nor is employment.  All of which are dependencies for SS to work out properly.  While not a Ponzi scheme by design, the design issues make it remarkably similar in practice when conditions drift outside the assumed parameters.

One thing I do find amusing is when some of the people collecting it insist that they're only taking the money they already put it in.  Nope, sorry, lets do the math.  You hardly put anything in, and while the value of it did grow quite a bit, you're surpassing the amount you put in (including earned interest) well before death.  That means that somebody else is making up the shortfall.  That would be the following generation.  If they're making up your shortfall, PLUS trying to cover their own, well, now it's starting to look like a raw deal and a system doomed to fail without some painful intervention.

Jamesqf

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #61 on: September 21, 2013, 11:41:04 AM »
You hardly put anything in, and while the value of it did grow quite a bit, you're surpassing the amount you put in (including earned interest) well before death.  That means that somebody else is making up the shortfall. 

Why don't you do the math?  You can get from SS a listing of your income (and thus SS "contributions") for your working life.  Now run a calculation supposing that you'd invested the same amount in a market index fund each year.  (Remembering to double the amounts, because your employer puts in half the tax before you see it.)  I think you'll find that you come out well ahead in the market.  In my own case, 401k/IRA funds will pay me about as much as I would expect from SS, despite having started later and not having contributed as much.

Another part of SS that you fail to account for is the tontine http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tontine aspect.  Say you work and pay into SS, but die at 60.  The money you've paid in goes to the people who lived.

ender

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #62 on: September 21, 2013, 12:02:42 PM »
I'm close to 40 years from even being eligible for social security.

From that perspective? Does it matter? Yeah, I guess it does affect it, but honestly it's not going to be the make/break item in my overall lifestyle and retirement planning.


Jamesqf

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #63 on: September 21, 2013, 10:18:06 PM »
Exactly.  I'm quite a bit closer to SS eligibility than you, and even so, I have to say that if it disappeared before I got to collect, I would still be able to live fairly comfortably.

Luck better Skill

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #64 on: September 22, 2013, 12:18:51 AM »

Not really.  Sure, demographic trends can change a bit, but that affects things by a few percentage points.  And projections are run for 75 years out, meaning Social Security is at least 75% funded for those who will be born in 2020 or so.


Beltim,  SS is only about 85 years old which means the projections when it started failed.  There have already been changes to the program to adjust for shortfalls.  For SS to survive it will need tuneups.  I figure tuneups will be needed every 7 to 10 years.  That equates to 3 changes before I enter the program.  To many to figure out what SS benefits might be for me.

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #65 on: September 22, 2013, 08:57:46 AM »
I don't think it is very wise financial retirement planning to withdraw from the political debate on retirement security because you believe – in your forties or fifties – that you will never “need” Social Security or Medicare.  Most  financial planners will tell you that there are three pillars of retirement security: (1) retirement savings or annuity income, (2) social security, and (3) home ownership.  If all things remain the same, it’s a safe bet that you will receive over $1 million dollars in benefits from Social Security and Medicare in your retirement.  It’s a good deal for most Americans and a basic cornerstone of any solid retirement plan.   

If prior generations realize that they have to work with Gen X rather than view Gen X as an ATM to be used to pay their benefits, Gen X may be able to force realistic across the board changes to both Social Security and Medicare that “shores up” the programs and gives Gen X a realistic look at what they can expect from these programs in retirement and a better financial target to aim at when it comes to retirement savings.  In addition, if we know this information now, we can not only change personal saving and spending but also work on policies that make it easier to save these additional dollars now - when we are working (or retired early).  A major problem that currently exists for Gen X is simply understanding what dollars Social Security and Medicare will provide in our retirements so we can plan and save now, when we have time to sock away the extra dollars that we’ll need to have in our retirement accounts if large benefit cuts need to become a part of our retirements.  As many have pointed out, Social Security will be funded at 75% in 2037, however, that assumes that their won't be a push by anti-mustachian boomers for more benefits or further cuts to payments in to the system by tea partiers.   Gen X needs to force the retirement security debate to happen now so we'll know whether we will need  to amass an additional $100,000, $500,000 or a $1,000,000 to cover the basic retirement costs that our parents and grandparents have taken for granted that the government will provide.   

Looking at this from an “ownership society” perspective, one of the things the 50 million members of Gen X do "own" right now is the right to receive the same Social Security benefits and medicare as prior generations.  That is law as it is currently written.  The programs are not properly funded.  This isn't a legal question, it is a financial question.  If we don't assert our personal financial interests in Social Security and Medicare, we are, in essence giving away hundreds of thousands of dollars.   If the government can easily snatch  25% of Gen X's Social Security or Medicare benefits without a fight from Gen X, why wouldn't they also go after other retirement savings such as making Roth IRAs taxable in retirement?  The “fairness” argument that we need to keep older generations benefits fully intact while slashing Gen X's because they have paid into the system 10-20 years longer than Gen X (and ignored their own generation's warnings not to expect Social security to “be around”) don't carry much weight with me.  If other generations perceive that they can continue to take from Gen X without any problems, why wouldn't they take more in the form of expanded Social Security and Medicare benefits that will further erode Gen X's benefits and ultimately our personal savings.  If you don't think that anti-mustachian boomers won't push to have their benefits enhanced after a few years of being retired without any savings, I think you are being a bit shortsighted.  This is why I think it's important for Gen X to protect our hard earned personal retirement dollars from any encroachment by the political process and that we don't foolishly give away our Social Security and Medicare tax payments with getting anything - at all - in return.  We cannot accept reductions in retirement benefits as a forgone conclusion.  If we do, then we will get whalloped even harder than what is being currently being projected and it will be too late for us to do anything personal about it - because we will be too old.

Politics can play a big role in creating real retirement security (or creating more retirement insecurity) for Gen X.  As a result, Gen X needs to get organized and motivated to defeat the guys targeting Gen X's pocketbooks - and some of them may be ourselves. 


« Last Edit: September 22, 2013, 09:10:43 AM by prof61820 »

matchewed

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #66 on: September 22, 2013, 09:57:01 AM »
I don't think it is very wise financial retirement planning to withdraw from the political debate on retirement security because you believe – in your forties or fifties – that you will never “need” Social Security or Medicare.  Most  financial planners will tell you that there are three pillars of retirement security: (1) retirement savings or annuity income, (2) social security, and (3) home ownership.  If all things remain the same, it’s a safe bet that you will receive over $1 million dollars in benefits from Social Security and Medicare in your retirement.  It’s a good deal for most Americans and a basic cornerstone of any solid retirement plan.   

If prior generations realize that they have to work with Gen X rather than view Gen X as an ATM to be used to pay their benefits, Gen X may be able to force realistic across the board changes to both Social Security and Medicare that “shores up” the programs and gives Gen X a realistic look at what they can expect from these programs in retirement and a better financial target to aim at when it comes to retirement savings.  In addition, if we know this information now, we can not only change personal saving and spending but also work on policies that make it easier to save these additional dollars now - when we are working (or retired early).  A major problem that currently exists for Gen X is simply understanding what dollars Social Security and Medicare will provide in our retirements so we can plan and save now, when we have time to sock away the extra dollars that we’ll need to have in our retirement accounts if large benefit cuts need to become a part of our retirements.  As many have pointed out, Social Security will be funded at 75% in 2037, however, that assumes that their won't be a push by anti-mustachian boomers for more benefits or further cuts to payments in to the system by tea partiers.   Gen X needs to force the retirement security debate to happen now so we'll know whether we will need  to amass an additional $100,000, $500,000 or a $1,000,000 to cover the basic retirement costs that our parents and grandparents have taken for granted that the government will provide.   

Looking at this from an “ownership society” perspective, one of the things the 50 million members of Gen X do "own" right now is the right to receive the same Social Security benefits and medicare as prior generations.  That is law as it is currently written.  The programs are not properly funded.  This isn't a legal question, it is a financial question.  If we don't assert our personal financial interests in Social Security and Medicare, we are, in essence giving away hundreds of thousands of dollars.   If the government can easily snatch  25% of Gen X's Social Security or Medicare benefits without a fight from Gen X, why wouldn't they also go after other retirement savings such as making Roth IRAs taxable in retirement?  The “fairness” argument that we need to keep older generations benefits fully intact while slashing Gen X's because they have paid into the system 10-20 years longer than Gen X (and ignored their own generation's warnings not to expect Social security to “be around”) don't carry much weight with me.  If other generations perceive that they can continue to take from Gen X without any problems, why wouldn't they take more in the form of expanded Social Security and Medicare benefits that will further erode Gen X's benefits and ultimately our personal savings.  If you don't think that anti-mustachian boomers won't push to have their benefits enhanced after a few years of being retired without any savings, I think you are being a bit shortsighted.  This is why I think it's important for Gen X to protect our hard earned personal retirement dollars from any encroachment by the political process and that we don't foolishly give away our Social Security and Medicare tax payments with getting anything - at all - in return.  We cannot accept reductions in retirement benefits as a forgone conclusion.  If we do, then we will get whalloped even harder than what is being currently being projected and it will be too late for us to do anything personal about it - because we will be too old.

Politics can play a big role in creating real retirement security (or creating more retirement insecurity) for Gen X.  As a result, Gen X needs to get organized and motivated to defeat the guys targeting Gen X's pocketbooks - and some of them may be ourselves.

Most financial planners would also say you can't retire in your 30's or 40's. So why exactly should I think that their advice on SS is any more valid? It doesn't have to be a basic cornerstone, your basic premise that you start with is already questionable. The basic cornerstone for retirement is your savings or income cash flow, outside of that is support.

Where is there any support for your speculation that "anti-mustachian boomers" will lobby for higher payouts from SS? You may say I'm being shortsighted by doubting this claim, but I think it's quite practical as you have no evidence. All you're doing is spreading wild tales which amount to nothing more than fear mongering. Also why is Gen X suddenly the whipping boy of the social security system? Other generations have also had to pay for previous generations, why are we suddenly so special to not pay into the program?

Why can't laws be changed to maintain a system? It's been changed plenty of times - http://www.ssa.gov/history/law.html

No one is targeting your pocketbook anymore than previous generations were being "targeted" by having to pay social security taxes. There isn't even current legislation to discuss. You're jumping at bogeymen. Remember there are only so many levers - benefit cutting, retirement age increase, and increasing the amount put in from paying individuals for social security taxes (either by making everyone pay a bit more or increase the taxable maximum). Although some of those levers involve cutting benefits that would only be able to be enacted for current recipients, you can't reduce payouts in the future because that actually won't impact current payouts which is the concern you would have when/if social security actually becomes a problem. So Gen X won't be robbed of their payout unless at the time of their payout laws are passed to reduce payouts.

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #67 on: September 22, 2013, 10:34:50 AM »
Why can't laws be changed to maintain a system?

That's exactly what I am advocating for - laws to adequately fund social security and medicare now to preserve it for the Boomers, Gen X, Gen Y and beyond in roughly the same form for everyone.  I think these are good and useful programs and essential for any "first world" economy.  Right now, I think both programs have a much less chance of surviving if Gen X and Gen Y don't buy into it sooner rather than later.  That's why our nation needs to begin the debate now on how best to fix the finances of each system so Gen X and Y don't go on believing that they will get nothing from social security or medicare.  Many in Gen X won't mind paying more if they knew that Boomers had some skin in the game via reduced benefits.  We will all have to endure a little pain as we try to fix the financial problems of a very good program.  However, if the Boomers dig their heels in on benefit cuts, there's no doubt in my mind that social security and medicare will be perceived as money losers, not a basic part of retirement for Gen X and Y, not something that should be further funded and many will (rightfully) demand a refund.   If there really is no financial reason for these Generations to continue to toss their hard earned dollars towards social security and medicare, why should they do it?   From a financial perspective - it makes no sense.

I guess I'm engaging in this debate in the hopes of bringing all generations together to avoid this "stop the program and pay me back scenario" from members of Gen X and Y.   A good first first step would be for the boomers to help Gen X and Y believe it will be there for them and their children by making a few sacrifices themselves.

matchewed

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #68 on: September 22, 2013, 10:48:31 AM »
Why can't laws be changed to maintain a system?

That's exactly what I am advocating for - laws to adequately fund social security and medicare now to preserve it for the Boomers, Gen X, Gen Y and beyond in roughly the same form for everyone.  I think these are good and useful programs and essential for any "first world" economy.  Right now, I think both programs have a much less chance of surviving if Gen X and Gen Y don't buy into it sooner rather than later.  That's why our nation needs to begin the debate now on how best to fix the finances of each system so Gen X and Y don't go on believing that they will get nothing from social security or medicare.  Many in Gen X won't mind paying more if they knew that Boomers had some skin in the game via reduced benefits.  We will all have to endure a little pain as we try to fix the financial problems of a very good program.  However, if the Boomers dig their heels in on benefit cuts, there's no doubt in my mind that social security and medicare will be perceived as money losers, not a basic part of retirement for Gen X and Y, not something that should be further funded and many will (rightfully) demand a refund.   If there really is no financial reason for these Generations to continue to toss their hard earned dollars towards social security and medicare, why should they do it?   From a financial perspective - it makes no sense.

I guess I'm engaging in this debate in the hopes of bringing all generations together to avoid this "stop the program and pay me back scenario" from members of Gen X and Y.   A good first first step would be for the boomers to help Gen X and Y believe it will be there for them and their children by making a few sacrifices themselves.

You don't seem to understand how social security is currently set up. You didn't even read the link I put in where the social security discussion was had a year ago on this forum. https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/social-security-do-you-plan-on-it/

The trust fund stops growing in 2027, that is where the excess cash from the taxes goes to, as in they estimate that there will be no excess from taxes in 2027, that does not mean that social security is out of money though. That trust fund will still be drawn down from and current taxes will go payouts until 2041. This is 100% payout. After that is when they predict that we'll start running into trouble.

Hollering that current payouts need to be reduced to prevent something in 30 years is a short sighted solution which ignores all the other levers that can be pulled. Raising the age where social security can be claimed will extend the year that quite easily and actually causes no one pain now, and no actual pain in the future as all you do is have to wait another year or two for social security. Your hyperbolic talk of people asking for pay back from social security is just that hyperbolic. There is plenty of financial reason for people to continue paying social security.

And again I repeat the irony of coming into a board where it is very possible that people will not have the 35 years of income thereby already will have a massively reduced social security payout therefore they have inherently less skin in this game than you think. And these are the people you're trying to rouse a response from? You don't seem to know who your audience is.

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #69 on: September 22, 2013, 11:26:05 AM »
Hollering that current payouts need to be reduced to prevent something in 30 years is a short sighted solution which ignores all the other levers that can be pulled. Raising the age where social security can be claimed will extend the year that quite easily and actually causes no one pain now, and no actual pain in the future as all you do is have to wait another year or two for social security. Your hyperbolic talk of people asking for pay back from social security is just that hyperbolic. There is plenty of financial reason for people to continue paying social security.

And again I repeat the irony of coming into a board where it is very possible that people will not have the 35 years of income thereby already will have a massively reduced social security payout therefore they have inherently less skin in this game than you think. And these are the people you're trying to rouse a response from? You don't seem to know who your audience is.

I guess I don't think it is wise from a personal financial planning viewpoint to just ignore the problem until the ss trust fund goes busto in 2037 and then we all get a 25% reduction of current benefits (assuming the SSA is 100% correct and benefit and payment levels stay the same).  To me, that strategy seems a bit shortsighted - especially knowing what we know about the current underfunding.  Plus, if we use this strategy, medicaid's trust fund will go busto in 2026 and payments will drop to 87%  of current benefits so I think your timing on when we'll actually need to deal with these retirement security  issues is off by a decade (at least). 

I don't think that the self-reliant, smart, intelligent and hard working folks on this site will want to sit on their hands, ignore the problem and hope that it's only an 87% reduction in medicare benefits and only a 75% reduction in SS benefits when  trust funds run out - right at the beginning of many of their (traditional) retirements.  I think everyone here understands that when your boat is leaking, you don't wait until it's 90% full of water before you start bailing.  Many state pension funds are confronting this problem now and are discovering that their underfunding problems have been compounded because difficult decisions were put off until the end.  The folks on this site are planners and I think they'll want to resolve this issue rather than sweeping it under the rug.  They are not in denial with their personal savings so why should they leave social security and medicare to chance as well when it plays such a large role in many of their retirements?

prof61820

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #70 on: September 22, 2013, 11:47:30 AM »
The trust fund stops growing in 2027, that is where the excess cash from the taxes goes to, as in they estimate that there will be no excess from taxes in 2027, that does not mean that social security is out of money though. That trust fund will still be drawn down from and current taxes will go payouts until 2041. This is 100% payout. After that is when they predict that we'll start running into trouble.

A combination of cuts to both current benefits and payment increases may prevent the nation from reaching this tipping point.  Cuts to future benefits along generational lines will not impact this number at all and, if combined with increased payments that only the delay the 2027 year of trust fund reckoning will result in Gen X and Y from losing faith in the system.

matchewed

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #71 on: September 22, 2013, 01:49:13 PM »
The trust fund stops growing in 2027, that is where the excess cash from the taxes goes to, as in they estimate that there will be no excess from taxes in 2027, that does not mean that social security is out of money though. That trust fund will still be drawn down from and current taxes will go payouts until 2041. This is 100% payout. After that is when they predict that we'll start running into trouble.

A combination of cuts to both current benefits and payment increases may prevent the nation from reaching this tipping point.  Cuts to future benefits along generational lines will not impact this number at all and, if combined with increased payments that only the delay the 2027 year of trust fund reckoning will result in Gen X and Y from losing faith in the system.

Given all the different levers that can be pulled, why does your solution have to involve cutting benefits now? And this may be nit picky but you should be much more clear with your terminology, what do you mean by payment increases? I'm assuming you mean social security tax increase instead.

jrhampt

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #72 on: September 22, 2013, 01:56:13 PM »
With cuts to these programs, we would be subsidizing them even more at the cost of our own retirements, even as our own SS benefits are cut back as well, meaning that we should be saving even more.  Absolutely do not see how this is minimizing the pain for everyone -- looks like it makes it worse for those stuck in the middle.

First of all, adjusting a retirees' COLA is not going get you a house guest. 

The hell it won't.  I already know way too many people who have in-laws and parents living with them because they can't afford to live alone.  My own parents have already started hinting they'd like to move in with me.

MrsPete

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #73 on: September 23, 2013, 08:01:33 AM »
Am I interested in following them, since they will affect me?  Yes.

Do I follow these topics because I think I have any hope of affecting any change? No. 

Jamesqf

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Re: Do the Politics of Social Security and Medicare Matter to You?
« Reply #74 on: September 23, 2013, 11:46:28 AM »
And do my ideas of what changes to make (if I could effect change) have much in common with the OP's ideas?  Nope.