Not if it’s going to replace our other social benefits.
Only if it replaces all other benefits.
I like Yang. I've heard him on several long form podcasts and I think he does a good job of
(1) defining the problem in a way that people can understand,
(2) speaking in a ways that might gain bipartisan support, and
(3) He's costed out the program (and it's phenomenally expensive). I think because he knows he's not going to win he can be honest about the cost. He talks about adding a VAT tax that specifically targets tech companies to raise revenue to help pay for the program. I think it's good to have a costed out program so that we can understand what the costs look like when other candidates talk about UBI.
Here are some questions I have about UBI:
(a) How "U" is UBI. Would it be better to role it out to folks with lower incomes first (on a staggered basis so it doesn't penalize people as much for working / making more)? But maybe doing this increases the administrative burden and reduces the efficiency gains you'd get with UBI.
(b) Would UBI replace Social Security? This isn't something I've heard a definitive answer for. I've heard him say that it would replace welfare programs, but SS isn't really that. I could probably get this answer by looking through how the plan is costed out, but I haven't gone to that level of detail. He says that people would have the option to opt in / out at roll out. Would that option go away in the future so other programs (including SS) disappear?
(c) How would inflation of the pay out be managed? I think one of the dangers of UBI is that every election cycle will have candidates promising to inflate the payout (more candy = more votes). Does the US government directly control the amount of the payment, or is it some arms length institution (something like the Fed maybe?)?
(d) Are there any measures he'd put in place to prevent giant tech companies from avoiding the tax increase?
(e) Historically, how do VAT taxes affect inflation? I assume that these costs are mostly passed on to consumers. What are estimates of cost inflation vs. the payout (what's the expected net change in purchasing power to individuals)?
I think that UBI may eventually become necessary. I think anyone saying they're going to implement something like this now is basically lying because the cost is so high. In Yang's case, I think it's clear that he's a candidate that's trying to raise awareness about a problem rather than one who may win and actually put this system into place.
For now, I think I like a plan like Roland's increased Saver's credit better because it's (i) more targeted and (ii) has to be far less expensive.