None of us have working crystal ball. And if we did, we sure wouldn’t be talking about it!
I think the question being asked here is whether or not the market will fully recover by 2021. None of us know that answer. But I’ll give you my sense. First I think and have thought for sometime that the equities market in the United States is overpriced. Things tend to revert to the mean over time, and if you look at historic CAPE ratios, the mean is much lower than where it is now. There is some argument that due to accounting changes, the mean CAPE ratio is a bit higher. Fair enough. It still has a ways to go to even that revised mean. We’re also facing the potential of widespread quarantines, supply disruptions, and now a price war with oil. That last part isn’t getting a lot of attention yet, but it’s huge. The price of oil dropped about 20% today. That’s going to hurt the domestic oil industry. My opinion, and it’s only my personal opinion, is that this downward trajectory has legs and we could be in for a 30-40% downward swing. As for recovering to the peak, well, that’s gonna take awhile.