Author Topic: Crystal ball predictions for how long impact of coronavirus on economy will last  (Read 6582 times)

tipster350

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What's your crystal ball prediction of the length of time for the impact of coronavirus on the economy and markets?

The market is down now, and there is no reason to think it's going to bounce back any time soon. Business and personal travel is decreasing sharply. Enough people are avoiding going out to restaurants, concerts, games, and anywhere there are crowds to make a huge impact on many businesses.

But, assuming the coronavirus cases will eventually run its course, it could take a while for businesses to recover.

I'm planning to FIRE in 2021. I'm expecting everything to be back to normal by then, but who knows?

Bloop Bloop

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Probably 3-6 months

I'm still in the accumulation phase of my FIRE so frankly if it hits long and deep it will be better for my long-term finances - if I were to look at it from a purely selfish point of view a stable booming economy isn't going to help me FIRE as much as a struggling one, since my own earnings aren't connected to the broader health of the economy or markets.

Roland of Gilead

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Probably 3-6 months

I'm still in the accumulation phase of my FIRE so frankly if it hits long and deep it will be better for my long-term finances - if I were to look at it from a purely selfish point of view a stable booming economy isn't going to help me FIRE as much as a struggling one, since my own earnings aren't connected to the broader health of the economy or markets.

Everything is connected at some point.

Buffaloski Boris

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None of us have working crystal ball. And if we did, we sure wouldn’t be talking about it!

I think the question being asked here is whether or not the market will fully recover by 2021. None of us know that answer. But I’ll give you my sense. First I think and have thought for sometime that the equities market in the United States is overpriced. Things tend to revert to the mean over time, and if you look at historic CAPE ratios, the mean is much lower than where it is now. There is some argument that due to accounting changes, the mean CAPE ratio is a bit higher. Fair enough. It still has a ways to go to even that revised mean. We’re also facing the potential of widespread quarantines, supply disruptions, and now a price war with oil. That last part isn’t getting a lot of attention yet, but it’s huge. The price of oil dropped about 20% today. That’s going to hurt the domestic oil industry. My opinion, and it’s only my personal opinion, is that this downward trajectory has legs and we could be in for a 30-40% downward swing. As for recovering to the peak, well, that’s gonna take awhile.

KBecks

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Up to 12 months, which includes market wobbles for the coronavirus and the US Presidential election.

The average recession is 22 months, so it could be longer. 

American GenX

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Recover by what metric?  The S&P 500?

The S&P 500 hit a record of 3386.15 on February 19th.

I predict it will not recover to close at that level or higher for at least 2 years and probably longer.  When the market finally hits bottom, it could be a long recovery.


Chris22

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Until it gets warm. And then this thing goes the way of SARS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, H1N1, etc etc etc.

My theory is the only reason this one has been more intense than those is because news orgs have figured out that Coronavirus frenzy is slowing the economy down and that hurts Trump, so expect the hysteria to drag on.

Roland of Gilead

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It will be a fast recovery because it has to be a fast recovery.  There is no option for a slow recovery because major systems would fail.  State and local pension funds are one example.  A drastic drop followed by a slow recovery with big unemployment and everything goes belly up, cascades, to the point where the pension funds would need to be bailed out by taxpayers who don't have employment or money to do it.

So this is why it must recover fast and the government will make it recover fast through some sort of QE17 or whatever we are up to now.

Bloop Bloop

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I'm worried about the costs (inflation, higher taxes) of a "recovery program". It may just be better to have a period of weakness and stagnation than to try to pump ourselves into a recovery.

YttriumNitrate

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I'm generally optimistic and am going to say May 15th.

To the extent they can be believed, the numbers of new cases reported in China have been minuscule these last few weeks. Couple that with potentially decreased transmission rates in warmer weather, and the economic impact could be seriously petering out by May 15th.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
« Last Edit: March 08, 2020, 10:42:51 PM by YttriumNitrate »

Roland of Gilead

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I'm worried about the costs (inflation, higher taxes) of a "recovery program". It may just be better to have a period of weakness and stagnation than to try to pump ourselves into a recovery.

I don't think inflation is much to worry about with a 0.5% 10 year treasury.

tipster350

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Paul Krugman
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Mr. Market is basically saying that we're headed for permanent recession

PERMANENT?!

Miss Prim

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Hi there!  Worked in Microbiology for my last 8 years of working in the laboratory field.  It will probably go the way of the H1N1 'flu.  Lots of hype on TV, stock market down, vaccine developed, stock market goes up 40% during that time.  There is an article on Forbes about this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/02/28/how-stocks-reacted-during-past-flu-pandemics-and-steps-you-can-take-to-minimize-losses/#10157a9448dc

                                                                   Miss Prim

MaaS

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None of us have working crystal ball. And if we did, we sure wouldn’t be talking about it!

I think the question being asked here is whether or not the market will fully recover by 2021. None of us know that answer. But I’ll give you my sense. First I think and have thought for sometime that the equities market in the United States is overpriced. Things tend to revert to the mean over time, and if you look at historic CAPE ratios, the mean is much lower than where it is now. There is some argument that due to accounting changes, the mean CAPE ratio is a bit higher. Fair enough. It still has a ways to go to even that revised mean. We’re also facing the potential of widespread quarantines, supply disruptions, and now a price war with oil. That last part isn’t getting a lot of attention yet, but it’s huge. The price of oil dropped about 20% today. That’s going to hurt the domestic oil industry. My opinion, and it’s only my personal opinion, is that this downward trajectory has legs and we could be in for a 30-40% downward swing. As for recovering to the peak, well, that’s gonna take awhile.


Agree. I think the economy (defined as GDP and unemployment rates) takes a hit. But what about the market?

My guess is we continue to trend down for awhile. But, the optimistic case cannot be ruled out:

  • Fed cuts to 0%. Begins buying ETFs.
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia reach an agreement
  • Vaccine is approved and/or signs of slowing

In that scenario, a return to all-time market highs is possible.

Bucksandreds

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A wise man once said "this too shall pass." A prudent thought on the matter would say, this is real and this is bad. Hundreds of thousands of Americans may die because of this. This will however, not be humanity's end and there will be a recovery and not "permanent recession." It might take years to get back to where we were. I'm glad that I'm not trying to retire in the next few years. It may be several years of financial pain.

J.R. Ewing

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None of us have working crystal ball. And if we did, we sure wouldn’t be talking about it!

I think the question being asked here is whether or not the market will fully recover by 2021. None of us know that answer. But I’ll give you my sense. First I think and have thought for sometime that the equities market in the United States is overpriced. Things tend to revert to the mean over time, and if you look at historic CAPE ratios, the mean is much lower than where it is now. There is some argument that due to accounting changes, the mean CAPE ratio is a bit higher. Fair enough. It still has a ways to go to even that revised mean. We’re also facing the potential of widespread quarantines, supply disruptions, and now a price war with oil. That last part isn’t getting a lot of attention yet, but it’s huge. The price of oil dropped about 20% today. That’s going to hurt the domestic oil industry. My opinion, and it’s only my personal opinion, is that this downward trajectory has legs and we could be in for a 30-40% downward swing. As for recovering to the peak, well, that’s gonna take awhile.

Well said.  We could still see some financial Black Swan bankruptcy events too.  Some of the oil companies and the smaller banks that have been financing them could go under overnight.  If housing prices fall we could see a smaller scale repeat of the derivative nightmare too.   

YttriumNitrate

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Paul Krugman
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Mr. Market is basically saying that we're headed for permanent recession

PERMANENT?!

Isn't Krugman one of those economists that has predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions? He's not quite to the level of Nouriel Roubini a.k.a. Dr. Doom, but he does generally seem to side with the bears.

MaaS

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Paul Krugman
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Mr. Market is basically saying that we're headed for permanent recession

PERMANENT?!

Isn't Krugman one of those economists that has predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions? He's not quite to the level of Nouriel Roubini a.k.a. Dr. Doom, but he does generally seem to side with the bears.

Krugman is basically a talking head for the DNC.

HBFIRE

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No one knows.

The spread is anywhere from a few months if weather turns out to have a short term containment impact to ~ 18 months when we expect to have a vaccine.  If this thing goes 18 months we're looking at a brutal impact on the economy.  If on the other hand the weather helps to contain the virus (until next season) and buys us time, the impact could be far less.  So there's a wide range of possibilities and no one knows.  My gut says this thing will die down in the next couple months, but its just a guess.

laserlady

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My gut says at least five years.

The idea that we'll have an effective vaccine in 18 months seems extremely optimistic to me.  One major problem is that, if this is like other coronaviruses, then our immune systems won't retain antibodies against COVID-19 for long.  A more innocuous coronavirus strain like the ones that cause the common cold can cause a new infection within four months after an initial infection (even absent any mutations or other changes to the virus), as the antibodies for this type of virus dissipate within a short period of time after the body successfully fights off the disease.  This greatly limits the usefulness of any potential vaccine.  (Antibodies for the flu also dissipate in a relatively short period of time, which is one of the reasons why a flu shot is required every year.  But COVID-19 will likely require shots even more frequently than that to retain an adequate supply of antibodies in the system.)

skip207

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I don't think we will see any stability till early 2021.
By which point the markets will probably be very depressed.

The recovery will probably be bumpy and over the course of at least 2 years IMHO.
So 2023 before we are anything like back to where we were in 2019. 
That's just my opinion though.

Smack bang on my FIRE date.. so totally screwing with my plans right now!

G-String

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I think it'll take 1-2 years minimum for the markets to recover to their previous highs. 

fuzzy math

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I'm guessing 2-4 years. I think the public will be fearful and hold on to their funds, limit travel, companies won't know how to react until at least another full winter cold/flu season has passed. Even if this does wane by summer, what guarantees do we have that it won't re-emerge and have the same effect next winter?

Everyone predicting a short rebound is not taking into effect the travel cancellations/bans and lack of general spending that individuals and industries are undergoing. Public behavior is nothing like it was with H1N1 or SARS.

PDXTabs

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It will be a fast recovery because it has to be a fast recovery.  There is no option for a slow recovery because major systems would fail.  State and local pension funds are one example.

Are state pension fund administrators going to fly to China to restart idled factories?

PDXTabs

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Until it gets warm. And then this thing goes the way of SARS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, H1N1, etc etc etc.

Ignoring the fact that Singapore is super warm and has plenty of Covid-19, H1N1 was actually worse the second winter, but we had a vaccine by then. If we don't have a Covid-19 vaccine by next winter we can expect the same only worse.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 05:12:17 PM by PDXTabs »

PDXTabs

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I'm worried about the costs (inflation, higher taxes) of a "recovery program".

I think that it is more complicated than that. Right now we are seeing supply side shocks. This could actually cause real inflation, and what's the Fed supposed to do about it? Keep interest rates low to spur demand, or raise interest rates to crush inflation?

We really haven't seen a supply and demand shock like this since WWII. All bets are off.

With that said, once we get the supply side out of the way (how long is that?), it shouldn't be too bad.

EDITed to add - unless we see a bunch of credit downgrades and defaults in the mean time. Frackers anyone?

RWTL

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I'm going to guess the rest of this calendar year.  We haven't even begun to see vast infection rates yet, and it hasn't been proven that this strain will be affected by improved temperatures. 

Until then, I'm going to keep pushing as much money in as possible with the assumption that when things improve the market will recover. 

Legsofsteel

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Probably a year imo.

phildonnia

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Let me preface this by saying that I think technical analysis is bullshit on par with astrology and reading tea leaves.  But since we're asked about a crystal ball, a little bullshit is called for, FOR ENTERTAINMENT VALUE ONLY.

If you try to match an exponential curve to the last 20 years of the DJIA, the market has been overpriced for the last four years or so.  The best fit shows a value in the low 25000s for today. 

Based on that bit of economic method that I just pulled out of my ass, the present price is just about right.  The correction is over, and there is no "recovery".  Expect a 9% increase from here.  Also, you will go on a long journey, and find a lost object, and meet an old friend.

netskyblue

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I'm not sure how much I buy into the "it'll die down in summer" theory.  It *is* summer on half the Earth right now.  Well, Autumn starting next week.  But late summer is still plenty warm.  By the time the northern hemisphere is full on summer, it'll be full on winter in the southern hemisphere.

YttriumNitrate

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I'm not sure how much I buy into the "it'll die down in summer" theory.  It *is* summer on half the Earth right now.  Well, Autumn starting next week.  But late summer is still plenty warm.  By the time the northern hemisphere is full on summer, it'll be full on winter in the southern hemisphere.

Only ~10% of the world's population lives south of the equator, with only about 2.5% living south of the Tropic of Capricorn. In contrast, about a third of people live north of the Tropic of Cancer.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 09:41:11 AM by YttriumNitrate »

BlueHouse

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No Crystal ball, but here are my magic 8-ball predictions:

Q:  Is CoronaVirus real and NOT a hoax?
A:  It is decidedly so

Q:  Will people panic and cause further disruptions to normal economic activity?
A  It is certain

Q:  Will young, healthy people survive this pandemic and come out ahead?
A:  You may rely on it

Q:  Will older people, closer to retirement, or with some underlying illness survive and come out ahead?
A:  Better not tell you now

Q:  How will I do?
A:  Concentrate and ask again

American GenX

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Q:  Will young, healthy people survive this pandemic and come out ahead?
A:  You may rely on it

And that is not a certainty as some young healthy people do die.

Quote
Q:  Will older people, closer to retirement, or with some underlying illness survive and come out ahead?
A:  Better not tell you now

The vast majority of healthy 50 and 60 year olds with no underlying health conditions will come out fine.

MrThatsDifferent

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The economic impacts are going to be the biggest since the last major World War I think. Right now we’re seeing closed borders, the elimination of tourism and mass fear preventing people from shopping and spending money. This is global. No one, no country is immune. None of us have any idea how long the virus will stay dominant or how long it will be until there’s a cure. Countries like the US that is built on at will employment will be laying off millions, and who knows how long before people can work at full capacity again? Unreal. I think it will be at least 5 years to recover from this. And economically, many businesses will fail, and far too many people will go bankrupt. I didn’t think it would come to this but it has. And what happens if another virus hits during the recovery time? Madness

Roland of Gilead

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Nah, it will sweep through the country killing who it is going to kill and next year it will be the "virus of 2020", maybe they will have a moment of silence for those who died and the world will move on.

This isn't nuclear winter.

My prediction is the S&P500 goes back over 3000 by Jan 2021

BlueHouse

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Q:  Will young, healthy people survive this pandemic and come out ahead?
A:  You may rely on it

And that is not a certainty as some young healthy people do die.

Quote
Q:  Will older people, closer to retirement, or with some underlying illness survive and come out ahead?
A:  Better not tell you now

The vast majority of healthy 50 and 60 year olds with no underlying health conditions will come out fine.

Q:  Magic 8-ball, are your answers true?
A:  Reply hazy, try again

frugalnacho

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Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.  And even though there is a vaccine, 2/3 of the adults in the USA can't be bothered to even get the vaccine because they deem it not to be a big deal.  Those are the same people freaking out and panicking about the coronavirus.  The flu has been around longer than the stock market, yet the stock market has done just fine historically. 

I predict the coronavirus will ultimately have less of an impact than the seasonal flu, and we bounce back by the summer of 2020.  There may be larger economic factors at play, but I suspect the coronavirus will blow over and not be nearly as big of a deal as it's currently being made out to be.

frugalnacho

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Q:  Will young, healthy people survive this pandemic and come out ahead?
A:  You may rely on it

And that is not a certainty as some young healthy people do die.


I predict the number of young people dying is going to be insignificant in the grand scheme.  More young people are going to die from car accidents than the coronavirus, yet hardly anyone would amend that original quote to clarify that some young people may not in fact come out ahead because they will die in a car crash. 

BlueHouse

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Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.  And even though there is a vaccine, 2/3 of the adults in the USA can't be bothered to even get the vaccine because they deem it not to be a big deal.  Those are the same people freaking out and panicking about the coronavirus.  The flu has been around longer than the stock market, yet the stock market has done just fine historically. 

I predict the coronavirus will ultimately have less of an impact than the seasonal flu, and we bounce back by the summer of 2020.  There may be larger economic factors at play, but I suspect the coronavirus will blow over and not be nearly as big of a deal as it's currently being made out to be.

" freaking out and panicking about"
I think it's very important to realize the difference between freaking out and panicking, versus being extremely diligent and accepting social distancing as OUR OBLIGATION to others who aren't as healthy.  Remember, if we cannot #FlattenTheCurve then even the young people in car accidents won't be able to get ER help when the ERs are overwhelmed. 

I am taking the coronavirus very seriously because I have older people who depend on me and I don't want some young whippersnapper with no concerns spreading something to me that I then spread to them.


frugalnacho

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Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.  And even though there is a vaccine, 2/3 of the adults in the USA can't be bothered to even get the vaccine because they deem it not to be a big deal.  Those are the same people freaking out and panicking about the coronavirus.  The flu has been around longer than the stock market, yet the stock market has done just fine historically. 

I predict the coronavirus will ultimately have less of an impact than the seasonal flu, and we bounce back by the summer of 2020.  There may be larger economic factors at play, but I suspect the coronavirus will blow over and not be nearly as big of a deal as it's currently being made out to be.

" freaking out and panicking about"
I think it's very important to realize the difference between freaking out and panicking, versus being extremely diligent and accepting social distancing as OUR OBLIGATION to others who aren't as healthy.  Remember, if we cannot #FlattenTheCurve then even the young people in car accidents won't be able to get ER help when the ERs are overwhelmed. 

I am taking the coronavirus very seriously because I have older people who depend on me and I don't want some young whippersnapper with no concerns spreading something to me that I then spread to them.

This is a full blown panic that is unprecedented.  I have never seen panic like this in my life.  Some of this is reasonable social distancing, but holy fuck is the general public in a panic.  Buying toilet paper, bottled water, and canned goods like it's the beginning of a zombie apocalypse or something.  I haven't been to the grocery store in a week and I am dreading going back because it's been fucking nuts the preceding 3 weeks, and I'm anticipating even more pandemonium. 

PDXTabs

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Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.

That's not even true. The flu does not reliably killed half a million people every year. It reliably kills a quarter million people a year. We could easily see 100x that number to SARS-CoV-2 if people don't take it seriously. Judging by my social media feed, the news, and even this forum, not everyone is taking it seriously.

dougules

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This is a full blown panic that is unprecedented.  I have never seen panic like this in my life.  Some of this is reasonable social distancing, but holy fuck is the general public in a panic.  Buying toilet paper, bottled water, and canned goods like it's the beginning of a zombie apocalypse or something.  I haven't been to the grocery store in a week and I am dreading going back because it's been fucking nuts the preceding 3 weeks, and I'm anticipating even more pandemonium.

The emotional component is definitely an overreaction, but I think I'd take a little panic over a completely cavalier attitude.  Even if fear is the motivator, people are now serious about trying to protect the vulnerable. 

Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.

That's not even true. The flu does not reliably killed half a million people every year. It reliably kills a quarter million people a year. We could easily see 100x that number to SARS-CoV-2 if people don't take it seriously. Judging by my social media feed, the news, and even this forum, not everyone is taking it seriously.

Even if we are comparing to the seasonal flu, people's nonchalance there is frequently a bit concerning.  I wonder if we'll see the seasonal flu slow down as an added bonus to all the coronavirus precautions taken. 

frugalnacho

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Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.

That's not even true. The flu does not reliably killed half a million people every year. It reliably kills a quarter million people a year. We could easily see 100x that number to SARS-CoV-2 if people don't take it seriously. Judging by my social media feed, the news, and even this forum, not everyone is taking it seriously.

WHO lists the global fatalities for seasonal flu as 290,000-650,000.   https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

That's much closer to half a million than a quarter million.

Personally I think you are bonkers if you think we are going to easily see 100x that number.  Thats between 29-65 Million deaths.  No fucking way.


Roland of Gilead

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Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.

That's not even true. The flu does not reliably killed half a million people every year. It reliably kills a quarter million people a year. We could easily see 100x that number to SARS-CoV-2 if people don't take it seriously. Judging by my social media feed, the news, and even this forum, not everyone is taking it seriously.

WHO lists the global fatalities for seasonal flu as 290,000-650,000.   https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

That's much closer to half a million than a quarter million.

Personally I think you are bonkers if you think we are going to easily see 100x that number.  Thats between 29-65 Million deaths.  No fucking way.

Well, he did say if people don't take it seriously, ie they keep licking shopping cart handles and such.

It reliably kills old people (80+) VERY effectively.  See Seattle care homes as example...and in some part Italy.


frugalnacho

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This is a full blown panic that is unprecedented.  I have never seen panic like this in my life.  Some of this is reasonable social distancing, but holy fuck is the general public in a panic.  Buying toilet paper, bottled water, and canned goods like it's the beginning of a zombie apocalypse or something.  I haven't been to the grocery store in a week and I am dreading going back because it's been fucking nuts the preceding 3 weeks, and I'm anticipating even more pandemonium.

The emotional component is definitely an overreaction, but I think I'd take a little panic over a completely cavalier attitude.  Even if fear is the motivator, people are now serious about trying to protect the vulnerable. 

Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.

That's not even true. The flu does not reliably killed half a million people every year. It reliably kills a quarter million people a year. We could easily see 100x that number to SARS-CoV-2 if people don't take it seriously. Judging by my social media feed, the news, and even this forum, not everyone is taking it seriously.

Even if we are comparing to the seasonal flu, people's nonchalance there is frequently a bit concerning.  I wonder if we'll see the seasonal flu slow down as an added bonus to all the coronavirus precautions taken.

Yes people should be fearful.  They should also be fearful of the regular flu which was my point.  We have a god damn vaccine for the seasonal flu every year. It kills half a million people per year, and the majority of people in the USA don't even get the flu shot, but everyone is out panic buying all the toilet paper because of coronavirus.  It's a completely disproportionate response in both cases at opposite ends of the spectrum.

GodlessCommie

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Why are we even  comparing COVID-19 to H1N1 or the regular flu? COVID is multiple times more deadly. Even if we take the lower end estimates of 2%, that's 20x of the flu (0.1%). And for those older than 70, the danger is shockingly high. Plus, the response to H1N1 was timely and decisive - with COVID-19, feds spent more than a month plain out calling it a hoax and delaying testing.

I mean, I get the optimism gun and all that, but I'm afraid there is a certain amount of denial that's not based on anything in reality.   

As to what will happen, the only answer is "nobody knows". There will be a shock from life going on lockdown. There will be cascading events from it. But there will likely be a pretty decisive stimulus, too - unlike in 2009-2010, Congress will appropriate whatever amount is needed. Same with our ability to deal with the outbreak itself - yes, federal response was (and is) far behind what Asian countries being doing. But states and localities stepped up. Public also had time to watch and learn - something that neither Chineese, nor Italians had a benefit of. So the impact can be manageable. Or it may not.

PDXTabs

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WHO lists the global fatalities for seasonal flu as 290,000-650,000.   https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

re·li·a·bly
adverb
in a consistently good or accurate way.


QED. It reliably kills 290K, not 500K.

As for worldwide mortality, you do your own math.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 03:20:48 PM by PDXTabs »

Roland of Gilead

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feds spent more than a month plain out calling it a hoax and delaying testing.

It wasn't just the feds.   Even on MMM here a lot of you were dismissing the seriousness of this virus.

Back in the first weeks of Feb I even said I think this could really have a disaster effect on the stock market (it was still shooting toward all time highs) and was pretty much ridiculed for saying the S&P500 could fall well below 3200

American GenX

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Q:  Will young, healthy people survive this pandemic and come out ahead?
A:  You may rely on it

And that is not a certainty as some young healthy people do die.


I predict the number of young people dying is going to be insignificant in the grand scheme.  More young people are going to die from car accidents than the coronavirus, yet hardly anyone would amend that original quote to clarify that some young people may not in fact come out ahead because they will die in a car crash.

I'm suddenly reminded of this post:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/coronavirus/msg2579940/#msg2579940

Retireatee1

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I'm hoping that we've already hit the bottom.  I don't expect a V-shape recovery, but a slow climb with many more drops along the way.