Covid vaccine rollout in the US - who do you know that is getting the vaccine?

[SunnyDays]

My reply to anyone ranting about infertility would be a loudly stated, "Bonus!  Free birth control!"

[Adventine]

My reply to anyone ranting about infertility would be a loudly stated, "Bonus!  Free birth control!"

If anyone told me directly the vax would cause infertility, I'd smile happily and say, "Goooooood."

[startingsmall]

My booster is scheduled later this month. My pharmacy actually closes for a meal break, and they make a point of saying that on the signs, on the phone, the website and so on.

In my 15 years working as a veterinarian, "closed for a meal break" usually meant that the hourly staff are getting a meal break and the salaried professionals were playing catch-up during their brief break from the onslaught of client demands. My understanding is that pharmacists are in the same boat.

[GodlessCommie]

I'm all for people getting vaccinated, but does the easy overcrowding of hospitals speak to a larger healthcare issue?

No. You have to strive to match capacity to peak demand, but matching peak demand of a once a century pandemic is very hard and expensive. Mitigation measures taken by the population have to be a part of this planning, and it is hard even with that.

It is even harder if you need to match peak demand for when a significant portion of your population actively works against you. Like, you can't plan your healthcare capacity for when people you are supposed to help treat doctors and nurses like an enemy.

Edit: regardless other well-known problems with the US healthcare systems, the number of intensive care units and ventilators per capita was a bright spot. #1 or #2 in the developed world, IIRC. And we managed to overwhelm even that!

[Abe]

Yeah we can prepare for a brief surge but we didn’t prepare for half the country being turned into brainwashed zombies. No one is going to pay an extra premium or tax to prepare for the off chance we have another pandemic and half our country refuses to control it because a demagogue told them to jump in front of a metaphorical bus. I sure won’t.

A potential solution is early discharge from the hospital after triage and remote monitoring at home. For pneumonia in particular there’s not much to do for non-critical patients under than oxygenate, provide IV fluids if needed and transfer back in to the hospital if they start failing out-of-hospital support. Maybe next time there will be infrastructure for that. That’d keep beds clear for other issues and keep the infectious burden down in the facilities.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

My tone was admittedly harsh and you have my apologies for that.

I do feel like you are acting like there is a scam in play. You questioned the data release. The data release thing isn’t a conspiracy. Do you know how much volume is being released by month under the agreement? 

I get it that things are changing rapidly and it is frustrating. This is just the side effect of a new thing happening, though. We are learning a we are changing as we learn. That feels untrustworthy to some when I think adaptability is a reason for greater trust.

The tone did not personally offend me because I know where that frustration may be coming from and understand that you are advocating for something you believe to be in the common good. I would like to clarify again in case that my last post wasn't clear enough that I am thankful for the vaccination I was able to get earlier this year. And I am not 100% against boosters for myself--more like 65% against at the moment.

I'm not sure how the FDA thing should be classified. "Scam" would not be my preferred word. I would try some diffuse combination of some or all of the following: ass-covering, regulatory capture/corruption, arrogance, laziness, and incompetence. I don't think metering out just 500 pages per month is at all in the spirit of why FOIA requests were created in the first place. To argue that it is reasonable to take 55 years to provide ordinary citizens with all of the documents associated with the biggest mandated medical intervention in a generation or two is insulting. And while I don't think "scam" is the right word, many who are less gracious might conclude just that. And note that this issue is just one of many forming a pattern of what seems to be an attempt at infantilization of citizens via purposefully bad communication and obfuscation. These issues did not stop me from getting vaccinated but I can definitely understand the growing affinity in some for conspiratorial thinking as a result.

Anyway, some fresh crap floating around out there:

Post-Omicron WaPo editorial by the two of the Lancet paper authors plus Paul Offit doubling-down against boosters for all (but very much in favor of boosters for some)

The latest TWiV had the contributors reveal they were all boosted but were somewhat ambivalent about potential net benefits of doing so; also note this comment here against boosters forever as a rational policy

Possibly of interest, some analysis on Omicron R0 versus degree of immune escape which is very preliminary but may be one of things to keep an eye on in helping determine potential level of vaccine-induced & natural immunity against the variant

[flyingaway]

It looks like Ontario (Canada) is about to approve the booster for 50+.  Those of us already eligible are having difficulty scheduling shots (I'm eligible now, haven't been able to get an appointment yet), so it will be a free-for-all this month.  A lot of places are busy doing dedicated under 12 first shots.

My city is doing well overall - my neighbourhood is at 79.8% 12 and over for at least one dose, and we are in the bottom 10.  The highest is 98.5% 12+ at least 1 dose.

With such high levels of vaccinations, do you still have infections reported in your neighborhood?

[cerat0n1a]

I gladly took 2 doses of the magnetic, microchipped experimental mRNA vaccines in April because the cost-benefit seemed clear. During the summer, I was exposed at least twice to people infected with Delta and did not get sick (yay!). However, long term frequent doses of mRNA vaccines is something for which safety data does not exist. I expect these hypothetical risks are very low, but I'm weighing this against a very low expected protective benefit for boosting (in my specific case; the argument for boosting in the elderly is fairly strong).

FWIW, the UK government decided on boosters for all adults as a result of this study (and others).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

Our system is rather different to the US - the government is paying for those boosters. Scientists have done the cost-benefit analysis and concluded it's worth it. Until these and similar trials were done, it was boosters for the over-50s only.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

[former player]

I gladly took 2 doses of the magnetic, microchipped experimental mRNA vaccines in April because the cost-benefit seemed clear. During the summer, I was exposed at least twice to people infected with Delta and did not get sick (yay!). However, long term frequent doses of mRNA vaccines is something for which safety data does not exist. I expect these hypothetical risks are very low, but I'm weighing this against a very low expected protective benefit for boosting (in my specific case; the argument for boosting in the elderly is fairly strong).

FWIW, the UK government decided on boosters for all adults as a result of this study (and others).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

Our system is rather different to the US - the government is paying for those boosters. Scientists have done the cost-benefit analysis and concluded it's worth it. Until these and similar trials were done, it was boosters for the over-50s only.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

The long-term safety data for doses of covid-19 is already in: 5 million people dead, and still counting.

[Zamboni]

I have no immunocompromised friends. . .

This statement from the previous page floors me. Do you really think that people are jumping up to announce to you that they are immunocompromised? Maybe they are immunocompromised because they are HIV positive, or had an organ transplant, or are taking prednisone from a spider bite they didn't happen to mention to you, or for a wide range of other reasons that they don't just feel obligated to announce to you?

Bottom line
Newsflash: If you have friends, then you very likely do have immunocompromised friends.

Sheesh!

[MisterA]

According to the UK studies, antibody levels are boosted by up to 32x for someone who has already had the double vaccine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/02/covid-booster-shots-significantly-strengthen-immunity-trial-finds
(the link is based on the information on @cerat0n1a excellent Lancet link above, it's a bit more readable)

I've had all 3 now, which is the advice for my age group (in the UK). Probably though, we should send more vaccines to the 3rd world instead of boosters, which would reduce the likelihood of mutations.

There is a train of thought that the virus might mutate to a more transmissible but milder form, that might then give immunity to the more harmful strains. Omicron may (or may not!) be this type of mutation, it's far to early to tell. This has happened before with other viruses.

[Pooplips]

In regards to the FDA data, does anyone know why they can’t just do a big data dump?

I’m assuming they have already collected and reviewed all the data, so why not just do a big data dump and be done with it? What would that take a few months to do a series of dumps?

[GuitarStv]

It looks like Ontario (Canada) is about to approve the booster for 50+.  Those of us already eligible are having difficulty scheduling shots (I'm eligible now, haven't been able to get an appointment yet), so it will be a free-for-all this month.  A lot of places are busy doing dedicated under 12 first shots.

My city is doing well overall - my neighbourhood is at 79.8% 12 and over for at least one dose, and we are in the bottom 10.  The highest is 98.5% 12+ at least 1 dose.

With such high levels of vaccinations, do you still have infections reported in your neighborhood?

Yes.

In my neighbourhood we have 74% of total population fully vaccinated (84% of people over over the age of 12 fully vaccinated).  There are still infections in our neighbourhood.  My son was sent home from school a few weeks back because there was a confirmed case in his class.

The vaccine doesn't prevent infection.  But we have far fewer hospitalizations and deaths than has been normalized in the US though.

[mizzourah2006]

I gladly took 2 doses of the magnetic, microchipped experimental mRNA vaccines in April because the cost-benefit seemed clear. During the summer, I was exposed at least twice to people infected with Delta and did not get sick (yay!). However, long term frequent doses of mRNA vaccines is something for which safety data does not exist. I expect these hypothetical risks are very low, but I'm weighing this against a very low expected protective benefit for boosting (in my specific case; the argument for boosting in the elderly is fairly strong).

FWIW, the UK government decided on boosters for all adults as a result of this study (and others).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

Our system is rather different to the US - the government is paying for those boosters. Scientists have done the cost-benefit analysis and concluded it's worth it. Until these and similar trials were done, it was boosters for the over-50s only.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

That's the study that led them to confirm that a 3rd booster was safe for everyone? The N sizes of those receiving each of the vaccines was around 200 people and none were under 30 where Myocarditis is most likely to occur. I'm not arguing whether or not a third booster is safe or not for a 20 year old male for example, but to pretend its fine to just give everyone a 3rd shot and that the benefits to each individual outweigh the risks is not something that can be inferred from that study at all. If there were numerous severe adverse reactions in N sizes of 200 we'd have an enormous problem. Also, why was it all white people? I haven't seen anything about different adverse reactions by race, but its pretty suspect that 99% of the participants in this study were white. So we have tiny sample sizes, basically all older people (the lower bound of the median IQR in basically all cohorts was over 50) and all white people. Sounds like a sound study to me.

[RetiredAt63]

It looks like Ontario (Canada) is about to approve the booster for 50+.  Those of us already eligible are having difficulty scheduling shots (I'm eligible now, haven't been able to get an appointment yet), so it will be a free-for-all this month.  A lot of places are busy doing dedicated under 12 first shots.

My city is doing well overall - my neighbourhood is at 79.8% 12 and over for at least one dose, and we are in the bottom 10.  The highest is 98.5% 12+ at least 1 dose.

With such high levels of vaccinations, do you still have infections reported in your neighborhood?

Yes.

In my neighbourhood we have 74% of total population fully vaccinated (84% of people over over the age of 12 fully vaccinated).  There are still infections in our neighbourhood.  My son was sent home from school a few weeks back because there was a confirmed case in his class.

The vaccine doesn't prevent infection.  But we have far fewer hospitalizations and deaths than has been normalized in the US though.

Different cities, same results.  Our cases are low, our hospitalizations are low.  Some provinces have done better than others (Health care is a provincial responsibility). Yes some are unvaccinated, some are tired of restrictions and pushing limits (I was at Dollarama the other day and people were masked but not respecting the 6' distancing, the lineup was long).  The US numbers just boggle the mind.

[jrhampt]

I have no immunocompromised friends. . .

This statement from the previous page floors me. Do you really think that people are jumping up to announce to you that they are immunocompromised? Maybe they are immunocompromised because they are HIV positive, or had an organ transplant, or are taking prednisone from a spider bite they didn't happen to mention to you, or for a wide range of other reasons that they don't just feel obligated to announce to you?

Bottom line
Newsflash: If you have friends, then you very likely do have immunocompromised friends.

Sheesh!

Yeah, that was a braindead statement.  You have no immunocompromised friends...that you know of.

[the_fixer]

I have no immunocompromised friends. . .

This statement from the previous page floors me. Do you really think that people are jumping up to announce to you that they are immunocompromised? Maybe they are immunocompromised because they are HIV positive, or had an organ transplant, or are taking prednisone from a spider bite they didn't happen to mention to you, or for a wide range of other reasons that they don't just feel obligated to announce to you?

Bottom line
Newsflash: If you have friends, then you very likely do have immunocompromised friends.

Sheesh!

Yeah, that was a braindead statement.  You have no immunocompromised friends...that you know of.

Yep, since the pandemic I learned that several of our friends are immune compromised if they hadn’t told me I would have never known.

MS
Lupus
Crohn’s
Prior cancer treatments
One taking immune suppressants for some form of arthritis

Oh and my wife that takes a high dose of corticosteroids for asthma falls into the suppressed category.

All perfectly normal looking people you would never suspect or know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MudPuppy]

@lost_in_the_endless_aisle i definitely misread the intent of your posts. Thank you for providing clarification. I apologize for the misreading and I apologize again for losing the reins on my frustrations.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I gladly took 2 doses of the magnetic, microchipped experimental mRNA vaccines in April because the cost-benefit seemed clear. During the summer, I was exposed at least twice to people infected with Delta and did not get sick (yay!). However, long term frequent doses of mRNA vaccines is something for which safety data does not exist. I expect these hypothetical risks are very low, but I'm weighing this against a very low expected protective benefit for boosting (in my specific case; the argument for boosting in the elderly is fairly strong).

FWIW, the UK government decided on boosters for all adults as a result of this study (and others).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

Our system is rather different to the US - the government is paying for those boosters. Scientists have done the cost-benefit analysis and concluded it's worth it. Until these and similar trials were done, it was boosters for the over-50s only.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

I take some exceptions to concluding, based on this study, that boosters are appropriate:

1) boosting may merely delay rather than prevent infection in the long-run, unless infinite boosters is the plan. Sterilizing immunity, especially to various strains that followed Wuhan Classic, is short-lived--so the actual risk would have to be modeled based on taking many, many boosters to totally avoid infection over a longer time-horizon
2) the paper deals with only immediate adverse effects and doesn't allow for more cryptic/longer-term downsides (Donald Rumsfeld something something unknown unknowns, you know?)
3) the paper measures benefits in terms of immunogenicity and not in terms of actual health outcomes. If two shots are already highly protective against severe disease then having a higher antibody titre isn't going to make much of a difference to an individual
4) finally, the study was before the latest variant plot-twist which may have totally different tradeoffs (but see my further thoughts below)

Overall, that is a good-looking study, though, for the questions it directly attacks. And before any angry fist-shaking begins (this is the internet after all) see my shifting thoughts on boosters below based on new information.

########

I am now at 50%/50% on the question of boosters. Why the change? First, a paper on reinfection rates from Omicron:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2

2.4x risk compared to wave 1 reinfections is significant but not crazy-high, which suggests the transmissibility advantage is mediated less by extreme immune escape and more through higher R0. Maybe I'm misunderestimating something about these findings, though, since the paper was updated in a hurry and I read it in a hurry. But anyway, there is also this thread on transmissibility as well, indicating the rapid rate of growth of Omnicron is not due to founder effect or selective testing--the growth anomaly is simply too big now to for this to be the case (plus elsewhere, sewage data is pointing to massive community spread in SA):

https://mobile.twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

Omnicornpop might be @ R0 ~ 8.5, with effective R in South Africa currently between 3.5 and 4... So if there are currently ~100 cases in the US, everyone will be exposed within 2-3 months. This would mean:

1) not enough time for Omnibus-specific boosters
2) lower immune escape/higher R0 scenario may mean boosters are more efficacious than in scenarios with those factors reversed
3) there isn't much time to wait for more information; the median American will be exposed in 6-8 weeks

And I guess we'll see how well Paxlovid and Molnupiravir work (the mechanism of the latter makes me queasy about weird side-effects; Paxlovid seems to be based on better-understood interactions in HIV medications). US could peak at ~10M infections per day, so could get nasty--or maybe it was a spreadsheet error I had when playing with the numbers earlier today while at work, or maybe we shouldn't trust random Twitter threads so much.

[OtherJen]

Husband and I are boosted (Moderna) as of four hours ago. So far, I only have a sore shoulder. Hopefully tomorrow isn’t too rough.

[Zamboni]

My county is 90% vaccinated and the county beside us is over a whooping 100% vaccinated (probably due to some people from neighboring countries traveling there for shots I guess?) Lol, we are such a blue dot in the red sea.

[Geppetto]

I do wish people would simply get vaccinated so we can move on from this.

I do wish people would simply get vaccinated so we can move on from this.

Fixed it for you.

Kidding aside, what is it you think increased vaccination rates will accomplish? The vaccines barely affect transmission rates of the latter variants, and I think we can see by now that there are more variants coming probably forever. Meanwhile our society is mired in an endless acting-out of Sneetches on Beaches. If nothing else, that's something we should move on from.

Decreased community transmission, reduced severity if infected, increased odds of survival if infected, reduction in total cases, reduction in total deaths, alleviate burden on healthcare system, and reduced opportunity for mutations (because of less transmission and less cases).  All those things also help people that legitimately can't be vaccinated, like the very young and the immunocompromised.  Even though I'm vaccinated I don't want to live in a cesspool of covid.  My 2 children are too young to be vaccinated and I also don't want them to live in a cesspool of covid.  I'd also like hospital resources to be widely available instead of being stretched beyond the breaking point treating people for a preventable disease. 

Do you seriously not understand any of those concepts?  Do you even use your brain, or did you cut that right out of the circuitry between your ears and mouth so you could more effectively spout propaganda?

You do live in a "cesspool of covid", as do all of us, and that is not going to change. I suggest you get mentally acclimated.

What is actually happening in this "cesspool", given the actual attributes of the virus and the accomplishment of mass-vaccination of the at-risk population:
 - Children generally do not become ill from this virus
 - Hospitals are not being stretched beyond the breaking point
 - Effective treatments for viral infection, breakthrough or otherwise, are becoming widely available

So yes I understand the concepts just fine. I am vaccinated. Uptake on the vaccines is a very good thing and has been monumentally successful. On the other hand we have this mental disorder that permeates this thread, insisting that something like 100% vaccination rates and a covid-free universe are the only morally acceptable goalposts on this pandemic. Since these goalposts are not achievable, ever, and everyone knows it, why are we speaking as if this fantasy maximalism is the only morally acceptable position?

My suspicion is that many of you enjoy playing Sneetches on Beaches and you never want to end the game. As long as there are "anti-vaxxers" out there transmitting the plague, you've got somebody to rain down condemnations upon. It's so much more fun than celebrating what has been achieved and moving on.

Will people always catch viruses and die? Yes. Including from the next four hundred covid variants. Would incremental additional vaccine uptake incrementally reduce those instances? Probably, sure. But what's going on here is not a discussion of realistic public policy objectives around that, it's an echo chamber of basket-case scapegoating and moral self-pleasuring. It's not good.

[MOD NOTE: Warning sent.  The struck-out statements are not accurate reflections of fact or of the people you're arguing against]

[former player]

 - Hospitals are not being stretched beyond the breaking point

I don't think you are right about this one.  People may not be dying in the streets outside the Emergency Room but that does not mean that hospitals, and in particular the medical personnel who work in them, are not being stretched beyond the breaking point.

[Dollar Slice]

Oh, are we doing that thing again where we pretend that Americans dying at a rate of half a million people a year from a largely preventable cause is something we need to "get over" and "live with" because some people give up too easily? OK.

Can you imagine trying to fight a major war with these people on your side? "Look, it's been a year and a half. We should just accept our new overlords and hand over whoever they ask for to put on the gallows. This is the new normal and we all need to accept it. If we surrender, they'll spare most of our lives. What's the point in fighting back?"

[sonofsven]

I do wish people would simply get vaccinated so we can move on from this.

I do wish people would simply get vaccinated so we can move on from this.

Fixed it for you.

Kidding aside, what is it you think increased vaccination rates will accomplish? The vaccines barely affect transmission rates of the latter variants, and I think we can see by now that there are more variants coming probably forever. Meanwhile our society is mired in an endless acting-out of Sneetches on Beaches. If nothing else, that's something we should move on from.

Decreased community transmission, reduced severity if infected, increased odds of survival if infected, reduction in total cases, reduction in total deaths, alleviate burden on healthcare system, and reduced opportunity for mutations (because of less transmission and less cases).  All those things also help people that legitimately can't be vaccinated, like the very young and the immunocompromised.  Even though I'm vaccinated I don't want to live in a cesspool of covid.  My 2 children are too young to be vaccinated and I also don't want them to live in a cesspool of covid.  I'd also like hospital resources to be widely available instead of being stretched beyond the breaking point treating people for a preventable disease. 

Do you seriously not understand any of those concepts?  Do you even use your brain, or did you cut that right out of the circuitry between your ears and mouth so you could more effectively spout propaganda?

You do live in a "cesspool of covid", as do all of us, and that is not going to change. I suggest you get mentally acclimated.

What is actually happening in this "cesspool", given the actual attributes of the virus and the accomplishment of mass-vaccination of the at-risk population:
 - Children generally do not become ill from this virus
 - Hospitals are not being stretched beyond the breaking point
 - Effective treatments for viral infection, breakthrough or otherwise, are becoming widely available

So yes I understand the concepts just fine. I am vaccinated. Uptake on the vaccines is a very good thing and has been monumentally successful. On the other hand we have this mental disorder that permeates this thread, insisting that something like 100% vaccination rates and a covid-free universe are the only morally acceptable goalposts on this pandemic. Since these goalposts are not achievable, ever, and everyone knows it, why are we speaking as if this fantasy maximalism is the only morally acceptable position?

My suspicion is that many of you enjoy playing Sneetches on Beaches and you never want to end the game. As long as there are "anti-vaxxers" out there transmitting the plague, you've got somebody to rain down condemnations upon. It's so much more fun than celebrating what has been achieved and moving on.

Will people always catch viruses and die? Yes. Including from the next four hundred covid variants. Would incremental additional vaccine uptake incrementally reduce those instances? Probably, sure. But what's going on here is not a discussion of realistic public policy objectives around that, it's an echo chamber of basket-case scapegoating and moral self-pleasuring. It's not good.

I have no idea what "sneetches on beaches" means, but "moral self pleasuring"; isn't that what you're doing here?

[frugalnacho]

I do wish people would simply get vaccinated so we can move on from this.

I do wish people would simply get vaccinated so we can move on from this.

Fixed it for you.

Kidding aside, what is it you think increased vaccination rates will accomplish? The vaccines barely affect transmission rates of the latter variants, and I think we can see by now that there are more variants coming probably forever. Meanwhile our society is mired in an endless acting-out of Sneetches on Beaches. If nothing else, that's something we should move on from.

Decreased community transmission, reduced severity if infected, increased odds of survival if infected, reduction in total cases, reduction in total deaths, alleviate burden on healthcare system, and reduced opportunity for mutations (because of less transmission and less cases).  All those things also help people that legitimately can't be vaccinated, like the very young and the immunocompromised.  Even though I'm vaccinated I don't want to live in a cesspool of covid.  My 2 children are too young to be vaccinated and I also don't want them to live in a cesspool of covid.  I'd also like hospital resources to be widely available instead of being stretched beyond the breaking point treating people for a preventable disease. 

Do you seriously not understand any of those concepts?  Do you even use your brain, or did you cut that right out of the circuitry between your ears and mouth so you could more effectively spout propaganda?

You do live in a "cesspool of covid", as do all of us, and that is not going to change. I suggest you get mentally acclimated.

What is actually happening in this "cesspool", given the actual attributes of the virus and the accomplishment of mass-vaccination of the at-risk population:
 - Children generally do not become ill from this virus
 - Hospitals are not being stretched beyond the breaking point
 - Effective treatments for viral infection, breakthrough or otherwise, are becoming widely available

So yes I understand the concepts just fine. I am vaccinated. Uptake on the vaccines is a very good thing and has been monumentally successful. On the other hand we have this mental disorder that permeates this thread, insisting that something like 100% vaccination rates and a covid-free universe are the only morally acceptable goalposts on this pandemic. Since these goalposts are not achievable, ever, and everyone knows it, why are we speaking as if this fantasy maximalism is the only morally acceptable position?

My suspicion is that many of you enjoy playing Sneetches on Beaches and you never want to end the game. As long as there are "anti-vaxxers" out there transmitting the plague, you've got somebody to rain down condemnations upon. It's so much more fun than celebrating what has been achieved and moving on.

Will people always catch viruses and die? Yes. Including from the next four hundred covid variants. Would incremental additional vaccine uptake incrementally reduce those instances? Probably, sure. But what's going on here is not a discussion of realistic public policy objectives around that, it's an echo chamber of basket-case scapegoating and moral self-pleasuring. It's not good.

With all due respect, fuck you.  I still know people getting sick and dying of covid, and hospitals are absolutely getting over run.  While children might not have a high chance of being seriously ill or dying, they can still act as a reservoir.  Even after explicitly pointing that out you still seem to not be understanding the point.  I mean, you understand it's a disease that's transmitted from person to person?

We have such amazing and effective treatments that we barely even had 1,300+ people die of covid in the USA yesterday.

GTFO of here with your misinformation and nonsense.

[sui generis]

So yes I understand the concepts just fine. I am vaccinated. Uptake on the vaccines is a very good thing and has been monumentally successful. On the other hand we have this mental disorder that permeates this thread, insisting that something like 100% vaccination rates and a covid-free universe are the only morally acceptable goalposts on this pandemic. Since these goalposts are not achievable, ever, and everyone knows it, why are we speaking as if this fantasy maximalism is the only morally acceptable position

I also want to point out that your perception of this thread is nothing less than bizarre. Mental disorder? Demand for 100% vaxx rates and a COVID free universe?  I haven't seen anyone, much less significant numbers talk about that. You have inferred it, perhaps, from the frustration about conspiracy theorists that are actually trying and succeeding in undermining important public health measures. But you need to seriously reread this thread and modulate your own possibly overly emotional response that really appears to have you blowing everything you read here out of proportion.

[OtherJen]

- Children generally do not become ill from this virus
 - Hospitals are not being stretched beyond the breaking point
 

Yeah, I call bullshit. Frugalnacho and I both live in Michigan, which is reporting the highest COVID infection rates nationwide. Do your research. Here, I did some of it for you.

Here are a couple of news articles about COVID in schools and pediatric hospitalizations:
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/11/711-infected-across-93-new-coronavirus-outbreaks-at-michigan-schools.html
https://www.freep.com/story/news/health/2021/11/18/michigan-kids-hospitalized-covid-nears-pandemic-peak/8656709002/

Here's a cheerful opinion piece that provides data on COVID-related multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, written by several prominent pediatricians. One never knows whether their kid will be the unlucky one. I don't have children, but I don't understand the cavalier attitude of some parents:
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2021/12/02/opinion-vaccinate-your-kids-against-covid-19-flu-protect-them/8822833002/

And here are a couple of articles describing the shitstorm our medical system is facing, and we haven't even hit the post-Thanksgiving wave:
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/11/29/michigan-hits-new-record-adult-covid-19-hospitalizations-80-beds-full/8786165002/?fbclid=IwAR2qGiu7vL4R2rX-U-iM6o1Zn6IAks3p5uoe0dJ8_kFPMaPyCF3Dx2GGJLE
https://www.army.mil/article/252344/military_hospital_support_to_fema_to_begin_in_michigan_and_new_mexico_continue_in_five_states

My local hospital is one of the ones that was deemed overwhelmed enough to require FEMA assistance, so I sincerely hope that I don't get in a car accident or my elderly dad doesn't have a heart attack in the next couple of months.

[Sibley]

Is COVID endemic, or will it be once whatever criteria are met? YES.

Is COVID killing people? YES

IS COVID causing havoc? YES

Does getting vaccinated help? YES

Is getting vaccinated a perfect fix? NO

Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. Go get your damned shots. And while you're there, get the flu shot, and make sure you're up to date on MMR and TDAP. The last thing we need is a resurgence of whooping cough or measles right now.

[Abe]

There is some evidence that the omicron variant is more transmissible. How that translates to hospitalization is unclear. What I will say is that hospitals in the southeast are just recovering from the delta surge and our staffing levels are quite low. Primary reason is it’s much easier to lecture people online about how covid is no big deal and we should roll over and take it as a society, than to help people in real life. Especially if those people don’t want to help themselves until it’s almost too late.

So unless someone is a healthcare worker, I’d take any of their armchair epidemiology with a grain of salt. Some people are always willing to have others thrown under the bus, but never themselves or their families.

[GuitarStv]

There is some evidence that the omicron variant is more transmissible. How that translates to hospitalization is unclear. What I will say is that hospitals in the southeast are just recovering from the delta surge and our staffing levels are quite low. Primary reason is it’s much easier to lecture people online about how covid is no big deal and we should roll over and take it as a society, than to help people in real life. Especially if those people don’t want to help themselves until it’s almost too late.

So unless someone is a healthcare worker, I’d take any of their armchair epidemiology with a grain of salt. Some people are always willing to have others thrown under the bus, but never themselves or their families.

I've got some hopes for the Omicron variant . . . as the initial results that I've seen indicate that it's more transmissible, but less dangerous.  High transmissibility with reduced lethality would be a good thing, wouldn't it?  If everyone catches it and survives then we should get widespread immunity in relatively short order - something that we've been unable to achieve with voluntary vaccination programs.

[mizzourah2006]

There is some evidence that the omicron variant is more transmissible. How that translates to hospitalization is unclear. What I will say is that hospitals in the southeast are just recovering from the delta surge and our staffing levels are quite low. Primary reason is it’s much easier to lecture people online about how covid is no big deal and we should roll over and take it as a society, than to help people in real life. Especially if those people don’t want to help themselves until it’s almost too late.

So unless someone is a healthcare worker, I’d take any of their armchair epidemiology with a grain of salt. Some people are always willing to have others thrown under the bus, but never themselves or their families.

I've got some hopes for the Omicron variant . . . as the initial results that I've seen indicate that it's more transmissible, but less dangerous.  High transmissibility with reduced lethality would be a good thing, wouldn't it?  If everyone catches it and survives then we should get widespread immunity in relatively short order - something that we've been unable to achieve with voluntary vaccination programs.

Do we have any data that suggests what % of adults 40+ have either been vaccinated (even partially) and/or had a natural infection? I'd have to imagine it has to be 90%+ by this point (in the US specifically).

The UK data says that over 90% of all adults have been exposed: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies

I guess what I'm trying to say is that among adults we pretty much already have widespread immunity. We're likely looking at ~5-10% of adults with no immunity at this point.

[cerat0n1a]

Do we have any data that suggests what % of adults 40+ have either been vaccinated (even partially) and/or had a natural infection? I'd have to imagine it has to be 90%+ by this point (in the US specifically).

The UK data says that over 90% of all adults have been exposed: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies

I guess what I'm trying to say is that among adults we pretty much already have widespread immunity. We're likely looking at ~5-10% of adults with no immunity at this point.

The ONS report also says "Across the four UK countries, 93.1% to 95.8% of adults had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 83.5% to 89.8% of adults had received at least two doses", which accounts for most of the UK population testing positive for antibodies. Is the figure correspondingly high for the US?

[mizzourah2006]

Do we have any data that suggests what % of adults 40+ have either been vaccinated (even partially) and/or had a natural infection? I'd have to imagine it has to be 90%+ by this point (in the US specifically).

The UK data says that over 90% of all adults have been exposed: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies

I guess what I'm trying to say is that among adults we pretty much already have widespread immunity. We're likely looking at ~5-10% of adults with no immunity at this point.

The ONS report also says "Across the four UK countries, 93.1% to 95.8% of adults had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 83.5% to 89.8% of adults had received at least two doses", which accounts for most of the UK population testing positive for antibodies. Is the figure correspondingly high for the US?

You obviously need to weight the numbers by the % of the population in each age group, but from the data from the Mayo Clinic it looks like between 85-90% of adults 40+  have had at least one dose of the vaccine.  Add in natural immunity it's likely pretty close to the UK numbers of those that have had exposure to the virus. My main point was that if our goal is to either get most of the most vulnerable population either vaccinated or exposed to the virus and that Omicron could help us with that I think we are already largely there. We're talking about less than 10% of those 40+ at this point and about 28% of those 5+.

[mathlete]

Is COVID endemic, or will it be once whatever criteria are met? YES.

Is COVID killing people? YES

IS COVID causing havoc? YES

Does getting vaccinated help? YES

Is getting vaccinated a perfect fix? NO

Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. Go get your damned shots. And while you're there, get the flu shot, and make sure you're up to date on MMR and TDAP. The last thing we need is a resurgence of whooping cough or measles right now.

Agreed. Despite the fact that things keep finding ways to turn more dour, our best defense is still getting vaxxed/boosted followed by masking and distancing where possible.

And I have no idea where this goofiness about hospitals not being stressed comes from. HHS tracks this. 18% of ICU beds are currently occupied by COVID patients. And around 17% of hospitals are experiencing or expect a critical staffing shortage. And I cannot stress this enough: We're at a local minimum on COVID right now. Things were twice as bad two or three months ago and they're about to get worse. A few months ago, I had a family member become critically ill (non-COVID) and have to travel 300 miles to get an ICU bed.

Vaccines, mandates, masks, and distancing do not 100% prevent infection, transmission, hospitalization or death. But they very clearly help. Make whatever sacrifices you can to help out everyone because every foregone precaution represents a stochastic burden on the healthcare infrastructure.

[former player]

Do we have any data that suggests what % of adults 40+ have either been vaccinated (even partially) and/or had a natural infection? I'd have to imagine it has to be 90%+ by this point (in the US specifically).

The UK data says that over 90% of all adults have been exposed: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies

I guess what I'm trying to say is that among adults we pretty much already have widespread immunity. We're likely looking at ~5-10% of adults with no immunity at this point.

The ONS report also says "Across the four UK countries, 93.1% to 95.8% of adults had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 83.5% to 89.8% of adults had received at least two doses", which accounts for most of the UK population testing positive for antibodies. Is the figure correspondingly high for the US?

You obviously need to weight the numbers by the % of the population in each age group, but from the data from the Mayo Clinic it looks like between 85-90% of adults 40+  have had at least one dose of the vaccine.  Add in natural immunity it's likely pretty close to the UK numbers of those that have had exposure to the virus. My main point was that if our goal is to either get most of the most vulnerable population either vaccinated or exposed to the virus and that Omicron could help us with that I think we are already largely there. We're talking about less than 10% of those 40+ at this point and about 28% of those 5+.

I'm not sure about the goal being getting a certain percentage of people with antibodies, or that high rates of antibodies in a population is much help in reducing transmission.   There is no indication anywhere in the world that there is such a thing as "herd immunity" in relation to covid-19.   Reinfections of people who have had covid-19 are not uncommon, infections of people who have been vaccinated are not uncommon, the new Omicron variant seems better at infecting the vaccinated and previously infected than even Delta was.  Both infection and re-infection can happen with minimal symptoms, meaning that stamping the virus out is not going to happen, short of China-type population-wide measures - which aren't going to happen anywhere but China.

It seems likely that infection will continue at a greater or lesser rate, bouncing between the highs and lows already established, for the foreseable future.   That would mean constantly higher demands on the medical system and a reduction in worldwide life expectancy for however long the covid infection is virulent enough to continue to cause deaths.

[mathlete]

I would also temper any optimism around synthesizing vaccination rates and presumed infection rates. I think the prevailing assumption in the US should be that we'll continue to have 1K+ daily deaths and stressed hospitals for the next several months and that the unvaccinated incur a much greater risk.

I know that seems incongruous with our vaccination rates, but it's important to remember that there are still around 70 million US adults who haven't been fully vaccinated. And about 10% of those are seniors.

Paging the FDA: Where we at on Paxlovid?

[frugalnacho]

I've been hearing since April 2020 that we are nearing herd immunity and everything is going to work out just fine and all the precautions are not necessary anymore.

[GuitarStv]

I've been hearing since April 2020 that we are nearing herd immunity and everything is going to work out just fine and all the precautions are not necessary anymore.

That's probably because covid is a Democratic party plot that went away in the spring.

[OtherJen]

Ugh. I just learned that someone else I knew died of COVID. She was a nurse in her 60s. Anti-vaxxer.

[mathlete]

Ugh. I just learned that someone else I knew died of COVID. She was a nurse in her 60s. Anti-vaxxer.

Bummer. Sorry for your loss.

[OtherJen]

Ugh. I just learned that someone else I knew died of COVID. She was a nurse in her 60s. Anti-vaxxer.

Bummer. Sorry for your loss.

Thanks. We weren't close—I hadn't seen her since before COVID. A mutual friend just told me the sad news. It's really disappointing because I had always respected her as a medical professional.

[Dollar Slice]

Sorry to hear that, Jen :-( 

Just got a call from two friends of mine in their 70s... I saw them last night and they told me they hadn't gotten their boosters yet (they had COVID a year ago and were both in the hospital, and got vaxed in Feb, so I guess were thinking they had a lot of antibodies). We were all sort of ganging up on them and encouraging them to get boosters due to Omicron seeming to be really good at reinfecting the previously infected. I had brought an MD friend with me just by chance, so I had extra support. Anyway, they just called from the clinic to tell me they were in the 15-minute observation period post-shot and wanted to tell me ASAP since they knew I was worried about them. <3 

[mm1970]

Ugh. I just learned that someone else I knew died of COVID. She was a nurse in her 60s. Anti-vaxxer.

A high school classmate of mine and I are messaging over FB. She told me about 5 or 6 locals from my home town who died just last week.  (Case rate in my home town? 100, case rate where I live now?  10).  It's a very anti-vaxx/ anti-mask area.

Of the deaths, one woman was 55 and vaccinated.  The remaining were not vaccinated, and they included a woman who was 32 and a 33 year old mother of 5.

The topic came up because her mother needed to wait 3 days to find a hospital bed for her heart problems because the hospitals are full with COVID patients.

[GodlessCommie]

I've been hearing since April 2020 that we are nearing herd immunity and everything is going to work out just fine and all the precautions are not necessary anymore.

That's probably because covid is a Democratic party plot that went away in the spring.

We decided to keep it longer, for the purpose of self-pleasing (as explained earlier in this thread).

[GodlessCommie]

A good friend of mine lost her sister to Covid. She was a very happy/lucky organ transplant recipient, and was doing really well after the procedure. Made me think of "I don't know anyone who is immunocompromised" exchange in one of the Covid threads. I had no idea that an immunocompromised person was one handshake away from me.

An anti-vaxx coworker is taking a roommate to a hospital with Covid. I understand that the roommate is of the same persuasion.

[KarefulKactus15]

There is a group of people I do feel incredibly sorry for.

The un vaxxed who dont know any better. (Maybe everyone falls into this category?) 

Its those people who dont lean left or right strongly but have grown up in areas where ignorance is prevalent, and due to that prevalent ignorance and simply what they were born into they have been unable to correctly make an informed decision due to misinformation.

But again if I feel sorry for all the victims of misinformation... well that would be everyone.  Nobody would be making incorrect choices without the misinformation to support their view.

[jrhampt]

I have spent the last two weekends in NYC and it is nirvana.  You have to show proof of vaccinination before you can do anything fun (eating inside a restaurant, going to a show).  It's almost like living a normal life again (although you do everything masked, other than eating, which is a small price to pay in my opinion).  So this is money I could have spent in my own state, but aside from some exceptions (my yoga studio, some musical performances), we don't have this blanket rule here that you have to be vaccinated to do fun stuff.  So if I want to do stuff with vaccinated people only, I have to individually vet each venue here in CT.  I wonder if the money they are losing out on from me and other like minded people is offset by the unvaccinated people who wouldn't have been able to spend money on stuff if they had those requirements.  At which point do these policies become economically advantageous?  Are we there yet?

I am aware that doing stuff with vaccinated people only doesn't guarantee no risk of infection, but I do think it is a risk I am comfortable with knowing that steps were reasonably taken to lower odds of infection.

[Dollar Slice]

I wonder if the money they are losing out on from me and other like minded people is offset by the unvaccinated people who wouldn't have been able to spend money on stuff if they had those requirements.  At which point do these policies become economically advantageous?  Are we there yet?

I think both Connecticut and New York have around 80% of adults fully vaccinated, so if 20% of people are saying "I won't go to movies/concerts/etc if they aren't doing XYZ to make them COVID safe" then it's about break-even. If it's more than 20% it's probably advantageous. (I'm sure it's not quite that simple, since you might have families where one person isn't vaccinated and etc. but in places that are 80% vaxed that's probably not very common).

There's also a certain percent who just won't go at all during a pandemic - high risk medical issues, no amount of precaution is enough, or they don't care enough about the thing to take even a small risk. (That's me with movies. Don't care, not gonna.)

Polling says these policies are very popular, so I suspect it's working out well, financially, in NYC. Anecdotally, there's almost zero enforcement of things like wearing masks and checking vaccine cards, so in neighborhoods where there are pockets of low vaccination, restaurants maybe aren't checking... but in tourist/wealthier areas like Manhattan they are.

[hooplady]

Got my booster today, yay! This was my first experience getting a shot from a pharmacist, who from what I understand are trained in this at school but rarely get to practice it. Smooth sailing, injection was painless. Expecting a bit of discomfort tomorrow or next day as I felt with the initial vax.