Author Topic: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS  (Read 18159 times)

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2203
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #200 on: March 24, 2020, 12:00:27 PM »
this thing is way overblown

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic originated in the United States before spreading around the world, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A later study suggested it was first diagnosed in humans in Mexico. The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400 people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year. Unusually, about 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age.

The H1N1 comparisons need to die.  At similar points in the outbreak, already an order of magnitude more people have died from COVID than H1N1 and there was a vaccine available before the start of flu season. 

Rush Limbaugh and Fox News' disinformation campaign has done a great disservice to our country.   

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4381
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #201 on: March 24, 2020, 12:05:01 PM »
There is nothing in the article you linked that shows Tom Friednan advocating for widespread lockdowns.

He does in other articles/opinions he's written. He suggests they be temporary but they're still shutdowns.

This is Frieden's company, which he mentions in a CNN op-ed*.

Quote from: https://preventepidemics.org/coronavirus/latest-insights/#adaptive-response-to-covid-19
As COVID-19 becomes a pandemic, additional strategies may be implemented, including staying home if a family member is sick, and community measures such as closing schools, mandatory telework and cancelling mass gatherings. These measures will dampen the impact of the pandemic,
<bold added>


* https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html

DaMa

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 417
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #202 on: March 24, 2020, 12:21:44 PM »
If Italy's confirmed case count is essentially the number being hospitalized, then the 2% death rate in China is equivalent to the 10% death rate in Italy.

China: 80k cases  16k hospitalized 1600 deaths
Italy: 70k cases reported =>  350k cases  70k hospitalized 7k deaths

In Michigan, they are moving to testing only those hospitalized.  This is due to lack of protective equipment, not due to lack of tests.  I was thinking that this would tend to inflate the death rate, and voila - Italy.



Boofinator

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1437
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #203 on: March 24, 2020, 12:51:02 PM »
This reminds me of the conversation around IPCC climate scenarios, and the use of “business as usual” and “worst case” scenarios.  The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder just did a great podcast on the topic, and I highly reccomend that show and the entire series.

A key takeaway for me was that the modelers and statisticians think in terms of sets of scenarios, with different probabilities attached to them — whereas those pushing for policies, or trying to understand risks and generate urgency (activists) latch on to specific scenarios. This simplification from an array of possible outcomes is also driven by headlines and journalism’s attempt to deal with short attention spans and the readers desire for conclusions.

The result is that we latch on to the biggest numbers, which are within the realm of possibility, but not so probable.  This happened with the numbers we have seen thrown around for the impact of COVID-19 — just as they do for the “business as usual” scenarios in the IPCC.

In both cases, we also have action taken to mitigate, and a changing landscape for the scenarios to unfold, which change many of the assumptions of the “business as usual” scenarios, and make them even less likely.  For example, oil and coal usage in some of the IPCC scenarios reflects growth rates that industry itself says are ridiculous and are also against current trends downward in oil and coal use, and the growth of renewables. We also see that testing and isolation works to slow the spread of  COVID-19, and few polities are doing nothing at all.

Combine these effects rooted in the difference between common language and rhetoric, and the language and rhetoric of science and modeling, add a dash of fear and political rhetoric, and you got a shit storm of sensationalism, blame, fear mongering, over-simplification and confusion.  The storm lays a blanket of shit on top of an already unknowable and complex situation that will play out on an ever changing board.

I’m not suggesting we should all be agnostics on the topics, giving up to marvel at the unknown and mysterious.  I would argue that we should understand more the rhetoric and structure of the science behind this, and learn how to make decisions and act to manage probable risks, bend the envelope of outcomes away from the worse case, and recognize that our actions impact our reality and thus previous models and predictions.  This is IMO, a much more productive use of our collective power than arguing over wether a prediction was right or wrong, or about a policy decision made by politicians was correct or not.  We’re all embedded in communities where we have resources and social power to act and influence — even if we may have not cultivated that knowledge and connection, we can rekindle it.

I also think we should start to imagine what a society that was resilient to two weeks or months of this kind of disruption would look like.  We’re a global economic system with circulation of currency, goods and people at massive levels of mixing — optimizing for maximum extraction of profit from minimal cost of labor was one of the drivers shaping our current system.  We have citizens with no margin to absorb the disruptions.

I generally agree with most of your post. The world is a giant feedback system, only partially controlled (to greater or lesser extents) by government actors. However, I think perhaps you downplayed (intentionally or not) the feedback mechanism when discussing the continued use of oil and coal (bolded sentence). The reason coal and oil have become unprofitable is in a large part due to the hammering away of these reports (which are simply a culmination and dissemination of scientific research), which encourages people to develop alternative solutions to generating energy to avoid the "business as usual" worst-case scenarios. In other words, I'd bet my bottom dollar that if global warming was not a topic that was discussed (for whatever reason), we'd be beyond the worst-case scenario presented in the IPCC report. The parallels to the COVID-19 reaction are quite similar, and I see no reason to ignore the worst-case scenarios because, as some people have said, "0% chance of anything close". While this is indeed true, it is only true because reports gave a true warning of "business as usual" and many countries have taken extensive measures in response.

TL;DR: These "worst-case" scenarios are improbable precisely because they exist and are reported on, rather than because they were improbable to begin with.

Laura33

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2578
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #204 on: March 24, 2020, 02:02:44 PM »
The fundamental problem is that there are two separate but related questions here, and we are conflating them:

1.  How bad is the disease?  I.e., how easily does it spread, what are the health impacts (short-term and long-term), who is most likely to suffer long-term or permanent consequences? 

And:

2.  What are the appropriate measures to address the disease to minimize overall impacts to health and the economy?

If we had a federal government that was leading the way and saying we're going to take these temporary measures to shut everything down, and in the interim we're going to expand our safety net to help the people affected and pull out all the stops to ramp up production of the supplies/people we need to manage this disease and find treatments/vaccines, and then we will carefully ease restrictions as our efforts put us in a place that we can manage this situation -- I'd be totally behind that.

But we don't.  We have two binary positions.  The people who care the most about the economy are justifying their position by spreading misinformation and flat-out lies about the disease to downplay its effects.  And the people who are focusing on protecting health are implementing draconian shutdown orders, without much consideration of the long-term effect on the economy -- largely because that is the only tool they have in their arsenal, because (a) our federal government is controlled by people in the first category who spent months downplaying everything and refusing to take action, so that now that we are being forced to act, we need drastic action to even hope to slow things down, and (b) all of the helpful proactive things that we'd really like to do to prepare to manage the disease -- like temporarily easing rules that restrict the ability to develop tests or possible medications, forcing existing manufacturing to convert to useful stuff to the extent possible, providing access to the national stockpile of ventilators, etc. -- are exclusively within the power of the federal government, which, as noted, continues to be controlled by the "denial" faction. 

Thus, because of our persistent focus on politics as usual and personal benefit over the national good, we now find ourselves having spent several months in full awareness that this thing was coming, yet having taken absolutely no useful steps to prepare our medical system to manage it.  So we have found ourselves in the worst of all possible worlds:  the only way to even try to flatten the curve requires draconian orders at the state and local level -- orders that are too limited and too late to actually stop anything but will definitely hurt the economy; and yet still no improvement in our ability to manage the number of people that all available data suggest will require significant medical intervention to survive and continued partisan bickering that is literally preventing the distribution of ventilators to areas that need them right now in order to prevent people from dying.

Not that I'm at all angry about this or anything.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1451
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #205 on: March 24, 2020, 06:30:18 PM »
It seems to me that we are shutting down the economy in order to deal with the "worst case scenario" which means that by design most of our measures are going to be over-conservative.

if it was up to me we would be shutting down the economy to deal with the median case scenario and changing measures every 2-3 days to deal with any fluctuations in the EV (expected value) of deaths, infections etc.

People might say it's callous to worry about dollars over deaths but that economic fall-out is going to cause deaths down the line too - just not ones that can be easily attributed.

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 500
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #206 on: March 24, 2020, 06:36:51 PM »
It seems to me that we are shutting down the economy in order to deal with the "worst case scenario" which means that by design most of our measures are going to be over-conservative.

if it was up to me we would be shutting down the economy to deal with the median case scenario and changing measures every 2-3 days to deal with any fluctuations in the EV (expected value) of deaths, infections etc.

People might say it's callous to worry about dollars over deaths but that economic fall-out is going to cause deaths down the line too - just not ones that can be easily attributed.

I mean, that's what the US has been doing, and we have had the worst trajectory to date.

When a shut down or quarantine is done correctly, it's supposed to feel over-conservative.  The goal is to limit sick people and deaths. 

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1451
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #207 on: March 24, 2020, 06:42:02 PM »
No, the US hasn't done that to date. It erred on the side of complacency.

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 500
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #208 on: March 24, 2020, 06:43:29 PM »
You're right.

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 154
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #209 on: March 24, 2020, 07:42:24 PM »
When a shut down or quarantine is done correctly, it's supposed to feel over-conservative.  The goal is to limit sick people and deaths.
This is exactly the case. Because the growth is exponential, you have to get out early and get out hard. If you do that correctly, you nip it in the bud. But that also leaves you open to accusations of "overreaction". But because the outcome is so asymmetrically loaded upward, it's much better to overreact a little than to underreact.

rob in cal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #210 on: March 25, 2020, 12:13:50 AM »
  Heres a link for contrarians to sink their teeth into.https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
Gives an analysis of the preexisting conditions of those who died (basically all deaths had at least one, usually more preconditions), and the median age of the dead. This was from a few days ago. More ammunition for the argument that the best bang for the buck in terms of stopping deaths is focusing efforts for protection of elderly people with at least one precondition.  the numbers of deaths of those under 70 is strikingly low, and the gender imbalance is huge.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 12:35:38 AM by rob in cal »

mancityfan

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 145
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #211 on: March 25, 2020, 05:17:27 AM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2545
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #212 on: March 25, 2020, 07:06:08 AM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

Of course it is. Many of comments below that video were encouraging, though. Fewer and fewer right-wingers are drinking the Kool-aid as this goes on.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 15253
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #213 on: March 25, 2020, 07:11:22 AM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

What kind of idiot talks facts around the president in this day and age?

bridget

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 659
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #214 on: March 25, 2020, 12:41:21 PM »
  Heres a link for contrarians to sink their teeth into.https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
Gives an analysis of the preexisting conditions of those who died (basically all deaths had at least one, usually more preconditions), and the median age of the dead. This was from a few days ago. More ammunition for the argument that the best bang for the buck in terms of stopping deaths is focusing efforts for protection of elderly people with at least one precondition.  the numbers of deaths of those under 70 is strikingly low, and the gender imbalance is huge.

The problem is that it's very difficult, if not impossible, to hermetically seal older people or people with preexisting health conditions from the rest of the world (and, given that they're people too who usually aren't on the brink of death just by having diabetes, etc. we should still care pretty strongly about them dying unnecessarily--the report yesterday about a Spanish nursing home being completely abandoned by the personnel there was just heartbreaking). They still need food and medical care, and the people who provide it, like medical professionals and nursing home attendants, go home at night. If their spouses and kids are still going to work and school like normal, the whole effort is wasted.

The best bet we have is to maximize the number of people who do not need any other contact with any other people in quarantine. Even with the very intense orders that apply to everyone, the governors of both California and New York estimate being tens of thousands of hospital beds short in the coming weeks. How much worse would it be if all the seemingly healthy people were going about their daily lives, hoping they don't brush up against a hospital or nursing home worker, or someone who lives with a diabetic? Or, crossing their fingers that they don't get in a car accident on their normal commutes at a time when there are no hospital beds to be had?

Also, this is being increasingly not the case in the United States. In California, the people being diagnosed are disproportionately under 60. And the first minor (17 year old) died yesterday here.

JGS1980

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 224
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #215 on: March 25, 2020, 12:48:13 PM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

Of course it is. Many of comments below that video were encouraging, though. Fewer and fewer right-wingers are drinking the Kool-aid as this goes on.

Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 12:51:06 PM by JGS1980 »

bridget

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 659
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #216 on: March 25, 2020, 12:56:12 PM »
  Heres a link for contrarians to sink their teeth into.https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
Gives an analysis of the preexisting conditions of those who died (basically all deaths had at least one, usually more preconditions), and the median age of the dead. This was from a few days ago. More ammunition for the argument that the best bang for the buck in terms of stopping deaths is focusing efforts for protection of elderly people with at least one precondition.  the numbers of deaths of those under 70 is strikingly low, and the gender imbalance is huge.

The problem is that it's very difficult, if not impossible, to hermetically seal older people or people with preexisting health conditions from the rest of the world (and, given that they're people too who usually aren't on the brink of death just by having diabetes, etc. we should still care pretty strongly about them dying unnecessarily--the report yesterday about a Spanish nursing home being completely abandoned by the personnel there was just heartbreaking). They still need food and medical care, and the people who provide it, like medical professionals and nursing home attendants, go home at night. If their spouses and kids are still going to work and school like normal, the whole effort is wasted.

The best bet we have is to maximize the number of people who do not need any other contact with any other people in quarantine. Even with the very intense orders that apply to everyone, the governors of both California and New York estimate being tens of thousands of hospital beds short in the coming weeks. How much worse would it be if all the seemingly healthy people were going about their daily lives, hoping they don't brush up against a hospital or nursing home worker, or someone who lives with a diabetic? Or, crossing their fingers that they don't get in a car accident on their normal commutes at a time when there are no hospital beds to be had?

Also, this is being increasingly not the case in the United States. In California, the people being diagnosed are disproportionately under 60. And the first minor (17 year old) died yesterday here.

Edit: The 17 year old's death was originally attributed to coronavirus, but is now just under investigation as "linked." His father has tested positive. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-25/a-search-for-answers-in-teens-death-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus

ReadySetMillionaire

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1381
  • Location: The Buckeye State
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #217 on: March 25, 2020, 01:13:45 PM »
When a shut down or quarantine is done correctly, it's supposed to feel over-conservative.  The goal is to limit sick people and deaths.
This is exactly the case. Because the growth is exponential, you have to get out early and get out hard. If you do that correctly, you nip it in the bud. But that also leaves you open to accusations of "overreaction". But because the outcome is so asymmetrically loaded upward, it's much better to overreact a little than to underreact.

There is a growing scientific minority finding, thankfully, that growth is not exponential due to "closed networks."  This is great news if true.

Here's just one of several papers I've found from researchers at Duke/Michigan: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023820v2.full.pdf

Quote
In standard epidemiological analysis, one assumes that the number of cases in diseases like this one grows exponentially, based upon the idea of a fixed reproduction rate. If each person infects n other people where n > 1 (the reproduction number), then the total number of cases should grow as n t/τ = e at, where τ is the incubation time, which depends on the characteristics of the particular disease. Several studies of COVID-19 have taken this approach to model the number of cases [e.g., Zhao et al., 2020].

This assumes there is no inhibition due to the interaction with already infected people, quarantine, or other prophylactic measures. While the data display large growth, they do not in fact follow exponential behavior.

In the inset in Fig. 5 we show a log-normal plot of the mortality data, and the behavior is clearly not linear as it would be for exponential growth. In contrast, we find that the data are very well fit by assuming a power-law behavior with an exponent somewhat greater than two, as shown in the log-log plot in Fig. 5.

***

The number of susceptible individuals around an infected individual decays with time. Individuals already infected might face increased immunity and there are other individuals who might have had a mild infection that imparts immunity but without developing symptoms warranting testing. These various effects would inhibit the exponential growth of the virus.

I'm not posting this to try and win an internet argument, but to share a hopefully really positive scientific finding.

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2413
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #218 on: March 25, 2020, 01:37:57 PM »
When a shut down or quarantine is done correctly, it's supposed to feel over-conservative.  The goal is to limit sick people and deaths.
This is exactly the case. Because the growth is exponential, you have to get out early and get out hard. If you do that correctly, you nip it in the bud. But that also leaves you open to accusations of "overreaction". But because the outcome is so asymmetrically loaded upward, it's much better to overreact a little than to underreact.

There is a growing scientific minority finding, thankfully, that growth is not exponential due to "closed networks."  This is great news if true.

Here's just one of several papers I've found from researchers at Duke/Michigan: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023820v2.full.pdf

Quote
In standard epidemiological analysis, one assumes that the number of cases in diseases like this one grows exponentially, based upon the idea of a fixed reproduction rate. If each person infects n other people where n > 1 (the reproduction number), then the total number of cases should grow as n t/τ = e at, where τ is the incubation time, which depends on the characteristics of the particular disease. Several studies of COVID-19 have taken this approach to model the number of cases [e.g., Zhao et al., 2020].

This assumes there is no inhibition due to the interaction with already infected people, quarantine, or other prophylactic measures. While the data display large growth, they do not in fact follow exponential behavior.

In the inset in Fig. 5 we show a log-normal plot of the mortality data, and the behavior is clearly not linear as it would be for exponential growth. In contrast, we find that the data are very well fit by assuming a power-law behavior with an exponent somewhat greater than two, as shown in the log-log plot in Fig. 5.

***

The number of susceptible individuals around an infected individual decays with time. Individuals already infected might face increased immunity and there are other individuals who might have had a mild infection that imparts immunity but without developing symptoms warranting testing. These various effects would inhibit the exponential growth of the virus.

I'm not posting this to try and win an internet argument, but to share a hopefully really positive scientific finding.

Seems like they are specifying the exponent and that the relationship holds across scales (i.e., fractal). Also, you have to have a pretty high percentage of the population infected to start reducing infections by just not getting credit for those people being new infections.

ixtap

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1900
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #219 on: March 25, 2020, 01:40:33 PM »
When a shut down or quarantine is done correctly, it's supposed to feel over-conservative.  The goal is to limit sick people and deaths.
This is exactly the case. Because the growth is exponential, you have to get out early and get out hard. If you do that correctly, you nip it in the bud. But that also leaves you open to accusations of "overreaction". But because the outcome is so asymmetrically loaded upward, it's much better to overreact a little than to underreact.

There is a growing scientific minority finding, thankfully, that growth is not exponential due to "closed networks."  This is great news if true.

Here's just one of several papers I've found from researchers at Duke/Michigan: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023820v2.full.pdf

Quote
In standard epidemiological analysis, one assumes that the number of cases in diseases like this one grows exponentially, based upon the idea of a fixed reproduction rate. If each person infects n other people where n > 1 (the reproduction number), then the total number of cases should grow as n t/τ = e at, where τ is the incubation time, which depends on the characteristics of the particular disease. Several studies of COVID-19 have taken this approach to model the number of cases [e.g., Zhao et al., 2020].

This assumes there is no inhibition due to the interaction with already infected people, quarantine, or other prophylactic measures. While the data display large growth, they do not in fact follow exponential behavior.

In the inset in Fig. 5 we show a log-normal plot of the mortality data, and the behavior is clearly not linear as it would be for exponential growth. In contrast, we find that the data are very well fit by assuming a power-law behavior with an exponent somewhat greater than two, as shown in the log-log plot in Fig. 5.

***

The number of susceptible individuals around an infected individual decays with time. Individuals already infected might face increased immunity and there are other individuals who might have had a mild infection that imparts immunity but without developing symptoms warranting testing. These various effects would inhibit the exponential growth of the virus.

I'm not posting this to try and win an internet argument, but to share a hopefully really positive scientific finding.

That article specifically mentions quarantines and other measures are what break the exponential growth, so I don't understand what point it is you are trying to make?

Boofinator

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1437
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #220 on: March 25, 2020, 01:48:31 PM »
When a shut down or quarantine is done correctly, it's supposed to feel over-conservative.  The goal is to limit sick people and deaths.
This is exactly the case. Because the growth is exponential, you have to get out early and get out hard. If you do that correctly, you nip it in the bud. But that also leaves you open to accusations of "overreaction". But because the outcome is so asymmetrically loaded upward, it's much better to overreact a little than to underreact.

There is a growing scientific minority finding, thankfully, that growth is not exponential due to "closed networks."  This is great news if true.

Here's just one of several papers I've found from researchers at Duke/Michigan: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023820v2.full.pdf

Quote
In standard epidemiological analysis, one assumes that the number of cases in diseases like this one grows exponentially, based upon the idea of a fixed reproduction rate. If each person infects n other people where n > 1 (the reproduction number), then the total number of cases should grow as n t/τ = e at, where τ is the incubation time, which depends on the characteristics of the particular disease. Several studies of COVID-19 have taken this approach to model the number of cases [e.g., Zhao et al., 2020].

This assumes there is no inhibition due to the interaction with already infected people, quarantine, or other prophylactic measures. While the data display large growth, they do not in fact follow exponential behavior.

In the inset in Fig. 5 we show a log-normal plot of the mortality data, and the behavior is clearly not linear as it would be for exponential growth. In contrast, we find that the data are very well fit by assuming a power-law behavior with an exponent somewhat greater than two, as shown in the log-log plot in Fig. 5.

***

The number of susceptible individuals around an infected individual decays with time. Individuals already infected might face increased immunity and there are other individuals who might have had a mild infection that imparts immunity but without developing symptoms warranting testing. These various effects would inhibit the exponential growth of the virus.

I'm not posting this to try and win an internet argument, but to share a hopefully really positive scientific finding.

That article specifically mentions quarantines and other measures are what break the exponential growth, so I don't understand what point it is you are trying to make?

The point is that the model of exponential growth (more specifically logistic growth) assumes no feedback mechanism (the natural propagation of a disease, if you will). Obviously, once we introduce preventive measures to fight the exponential growth, it will cease to be exponential.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are using the results from implementation of a cure to inform a decision against using the cure.

egillespie

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 55
  • Location: New York
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #221 on: March 25, 2020, 01:48:57 PM »

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1622
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #222 on: March 25, 2020, 01:57:42 PM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

Of course it is. Many of comments below that video were encouraging, though. Fewer and fewer right-wingers are drinking the Kool-aid as this goes on.

Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS

I lean toward contrarian, but take it very seriously because I have a son and 3 grandparents who are high risk.  I don't think passing any country in terms of infections sways me one way or the other.  We are still 5-10x less infected per capita compared to Italy and Spain sitting at a 0.02% infected as a country.  We are also seemingly  experiencing a much lower death rate than expected and in my opinion are nowhere near the doom and gloom originally projected, but I will say NY is getting rocked.  Seems like WA and CA may already have the infection growth nipped, but I need to see more data to say for sure.

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2413
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #223 on: March 25, 2020, 02:03:21 PM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

Of course it is. Many of comments below that video were encouraging, though. Fewer and fewer right-wingers are drinking the Kool-aid as this goes on.

Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS

I lean toward contrarian, but take it very seriously because I have a son and 3 grandparents who are high risk.  I don't think passing any country in terms of infections sways me one way or the other.  We are still 5-10x less infected per capita compared to Italy and Spain sitting at a 0.02% infected as a country.  We are also seemingly  experiencing a much lower death rate than expected and in my opinion are nowhere near the doom and gloom originally projected, but I will say NY is getting rocked.  Seems like WA and CA may already have the infection growth nipped, but I need to see more data to say for sure.
That seems like an optimistic view of WA given that we are just starting our first day of enforced shelter in place. We are going to see rapidly increasing hospital populations over the next weeks. Populations are increasing across the Seattle hospital populations.

Apple_Tango

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 400
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #224 on: March 25, 2020, 03:16:06 PM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

Of course it is. Many of comments below that video were encouraging, though. Fewer and fewer right-wingers are drinking the Kool-aid as this goes on.

Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS

I lean toward contrarian, but take it very seriously because I have a son and 3 grandparents who are high risk.  I don't think passing any country in terms of infections sways me one way or the other.  We are still 5-10x less infected per capita compared to Italy and Spain sitting at a 0.02% infected as a country.  We are also seemingly  experiencing a much lower death rate than expected and in my opinion are nowhere near the doom and gloom originally projected, but I will say NY is getting rocked.  Seems like WA and CA may already have the infection growth nipped, but I need to see more data to say for sure.

It’s a lower death rate so far in the US because hospitals are not yet overwhelmed. Once the hospitals get overwhelmed, I think I saw statistics that the death rate could go as high as 8-10% because more people will not be able to get the medical care they need.

verfrugal

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
  • Location: Vermont
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #225 on: March 25, 2020, 04:03:50 PM »
I generally agree with most of your post. The world is a giant feedback system, only partially controlled (to greater or lesser extents) by government actors. However, I think perhaps you downplayed (intentionally or not) the feedback mechanism when discussing the continued use of oil and coal (bolded sentence). The reason coal and oil have become unprofitable is in a large part due to the hammering away of these reports (which are simply a culmination and dissemination of scientific research), which encourages people to develop alternative solutions to generating energy to avoid the "business as usual" worst-case scenarios. In other words, I'd bet my bottom dollar that if global warming was not a topic that was discussed (for whatever reason), we'd be beyond the worst-case scenario presented in the IPCC report. The parallels to the COVID-19 reaction are quite similar, and I see no reason to ignore the worst-case scenarios because, as some people have said, "0% chance of anything close". While this is indeed true, it is only true because reports gave a true warning of "business as usual" and many countries have taken extensive measures in response.

I think a sense of disagreement on feedback loops or desired outcomes between us is an artifact of text and language ambiguity 8^)

My comment on those IPCC scenarios being ridiculous is a bit of nitpicking from my own climate activist perspective, and I am glad those scenarios were rendered less possible by our collective actions over several decades.  We need to recognize our advanced, even limited ones, because it fights despair and a sense of powerlessness.


fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 789
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #226 on: March 25, 2020, 04:10:20 PM »
Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS

This is 100% a function of how many tests you administer though (ignoring total population, too). I'm confused why anyone would bring up China anymore at this point. You think it just magically stopped infecting people one day?

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 154
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #227 on: March 25, 2020, 06:06:07 PM »
I'm confused why anyone would bring up China anymore at this point. You think it just magically stopped infecting people one day?
Does locking down constitute "magic"?

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 154
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #228 on: March 25, 2020, 06:09:32 PM »
  Heres a link for contrarians to sink their teeth into.https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
Gives an analysis of the preexisting conditions of those who died (basically all deaths had at least one, usually more preconditions), and the median age of the dead. This was from a few days ago. More ammunition for the argument that the best bang for the buck in terms of stopping deaths is focusing efforts for protection of elderly people with at least one precondition.  the numbers of deaths of those under 70 is strikingly low, and the gender imbalance is huge.
This NYC emergency doctor seems to disagree, she says they're seeing healthy people in their 30s and 40s severely affected.

JGS1980

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 224
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #229 on: March 25, 2020, 06:32:02 PM »
Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS

This is 100% a function of how many tests you administer though (ignoring total population, too). I'm confused why anyone would bring up China anymore at this point. You think it just magically stopped infecting people one day?

A lot of folks can't see past their own noses. I bring up China to provide some perspective. This virus is now at our doorstep. We are at 60K infections and we are in the beginning of exponential growth, not the peak. China has reached their peak because they "magically" created a full lockdown. We have gone another way.

GreenEggs

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 959
  • Location: Here & There
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #230 on: March 25, 2020, 06:45:53 PM »
Here's a US county-by-county COVID-19 infection rate map. 


https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?covid=1&lat=35.45&lon=-81&cm_ven=covid-map

Anette

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 120
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #231 on: March 25, 2020, 09:27:17 PM »
I wouldn't call myself a contrarian but:

It does feel like a lot of politicians felt pressured into curfew due to other countries policies ( and the meaning for trade...) and a bit of hysteria.
German politicians are now starting to discuss a curfew just for vulnerable and older citizens and having students and younger people go back to school, University and work.
This is the advise from virologist the politicians are trying to follow with the basic idea that we can't stay at home and wait for the virus to go away, a vaccine developed ...
What we need is to establish herd immunity which can only be gained by exposure.
I think these are very valid points and this may be doable in this country where we have 3x to 4x the amount of hospital beds available per 1000 people ( compared to the US, depending on the source) and health insurance that has nobody worried about losing everything to a health crisis just like Imma reported from the Netherlands as well. We shall see how bad the situation gets here in the next days as the amount of infected people rises daily.
Boris Johnson ( whom I am no fan of) did at some point ask for the same sort of thing ( confining only the elderly/ vulnerable to their homes) and in Germany it is somewhat problematic to install something like that as this means people will not be treated equally so it may not happen.
I would link an article from the German newspaper "Die Welt" reporting the above mentioned today but as it is in German ...:)

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1322
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #232 on: March 25, 2020, 09:49:51 PM »
All contrarians please report to Columbia Presbyterian to volunteer. They are short staffed due to 20% and rising providers becoming ill with the coronavirus. My friends would appreciate it. Thanks!

egillespie

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 55
  • Location: New York
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #233 on: March 26, 2020, 04:31:10 AM »
Absent treatments or vaccines, the only way to acquire immunity is to become infected and recover.

This is reality.   

We can’t stop Earthquakes.
We can’t deflect Hurricanes. 

Those that are chronically ill will have a higher death rate, as they do with many illnesses.  Most chronic illness are preventable and are caused by lifestyle. 
Those that are healthy the death rate is likely well below 1% (perhaps by orders of magnitude). 

Destroying society and the economy in addition to the effects of the virus is something that needs to be taken more seriously. 

The virus hysteria should be the least of your concerns right now.

What seems denialist to me, contrarian, are the people that are ignoring the economic and psychological impact of lockdowns are quarantines, which are much more significant than the impact from the virus itself.

This infection will challenge healthcare in the US (which is not prepared) and decisions will have to be made on who gets treatment and who doesn’t.  None of us can fix that at this point.  Too little, too late.

But, facts are facts.  Most people who get COVID (eventually most of us) will either be asymptomatic or at most mild reactions.

The Imperial College estimates were initially 500,000 deaths in the UK.   Then they revised it down to 20,000 deaths.  Now they think it will be even lower than that. 

The hysteria, lockdown, quarantines and economic destruction will some day be seen as one of the biggest frauds the world has ever seen.   
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 05:01:32 AM by egillespie »

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1322
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #234 on: March 26, 2020, 04:55:22 AM »
I think the big difference between you and me is that I value everyone’s life and want to do what we can to minimize deaths, not maximize profits. A few week shutdown is not “destroying society”. Science is not “hysteria”, your hyperbole is. The other big reason is as a healthcare professional I have way more on the line than you do (my life, your 401k).
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 04:57:09 AM by Abe »

egillespie

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 55
  • Location: New York
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #235 on: March 26, 2020, 05:06:40 AM »
I think the big difference between you and me is that I value everyone’s life and want to do what we can to minimize deaths, not maximize profits. A few week shutdown is not “destroying society”. Science is not “hysteria”, your hyperbole is. The other big reason is as a healthcare professional I have way more on the line than you do (my life, your 401k).

I would disagree with that.   Does not sending millions of kids to school for months, stunting their growth...do you value their lives?

The increase in suicide rates.  Do you value their lives?

The increase in depression and anxiety.  Do you value their lives?

The increase in poverty which causes an increase in mortality. Do you value their lives?

I used lots of science in my previous posts.  The only way to keep hysteria going is to ignore what science teaches us.   

The economy is not something we can just “turn on” again. 

The self importance, grandiose and short sighted culture of the medical establishment is on full display and is hurting all of us.

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1322
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #236 on: March 26, 2020, 05:14:27 AM »
Cite the source for the UK estimates being revised down. Their current published report still indicates 500k deaths without isolation:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Also cite sources for increased suicides.
Also cite sources for worse long-term outcomes for decreased school days.

I do agree that poverty can cause a long term decrease in survival. Provide evidence that temporary business closures cause long-term poverty.

I went though all of your posts and you’ve cited no scientific studies.  Only name calling and back of envelops uncited statistics and opinion pieces from economists.
I will refrain from name-calling, recommend you do also.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 05:20:23 AM by Abe »

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5070
  • Location: Avalon
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #237 on: March 26, 2020, 05:20:53 AM »
I'm beginning to think that perhaps a re-read of Lord of the Flies is in order.

egillespie

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 55
  • Location: New York
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #238 on: March 26, 2020, 05:27:31 AM »
Cite the source for the UK estimates being revised down. Their current published report still indicates 500k deaths without isolation:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Also cite sources for increased suicides.
Also cite sources for worse long-term outcomes for decreased school days.

I do agree that poverty can cause a long term decrease in survival. Provide evidence that temporary business closures cause long-term poverty.

I went though all of your posts and you’ve cited no scientific studies.  Only name calling and back of envelops uncited statistics and opinion pieces from economists.
I will refrain from name-calling, recommend you do also.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-now-likely-to-cope-with-coronavirus-says-key-scientist-rn5m6nggk

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1322
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #239 on: March 26, 2020, 05:44:09 AM »
You left out why he is revising the statistics (not published, just his opinion):

He said that through a combination of enforced social distancing and a nationwide scramble to set up thousands more intensive care beds, he and his colleagues were now “reasonably confident” that the health service would cope with the crisis.

“We think that in some areas of the country ICUs will get very close to capacity but we won’t breach them at the national level,” he said, predicting that the worst of the first wave was likely to pass within three weeks.

The major downside risk is economic:

But, he added, there would be a cost. Thanks to the stringent measures used to save the health service from disaster, “we will be paying for this year for many decades to come in terms of economic impac

Anette

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 120
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #240 on: March 26, 2020, 06:24:23 AM »
I think neither egillespie  nor I were saying anywhere that we would rather have people die so the economy can thrive.

I was pointing out that virologists are advising the German government to just quarantine the vulnerable and elderly to get a solution via herd immunity which seems the only (?) solution as long as there isn't a vaccine.

And yes there will be consequences of quarantine as well as of virus infections and therefore it might make sense to only quarantine those who definitely need to be.

And thank you for suggesting that I start helping out at some hospital in the US. I am in fact a registered nurse and will keep my job here :)

runbikerun

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 539
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #241 on: March 26, 2020, 07:19:31 AM »
I was pointing out that virologists are advising the German government to just quarantine the vulnerable and elderly to get a solution via herd immunity which seems the only (?) solution as long as there isn't a vaccine.

Source for this? I'm looking online and cannot find anything along these lines - in fact, only on Monday, Germany banned public meetings of more than two people not from the same household.

Anette

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 120
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #242 on: March 26, 2020, 07:39:35 AM »
I am certain. There was an article in the highly respected German newspaper " Die Welt" yesterday reporting about a debate in the Bundestag (like the Senate). As I stated earlier one of the problems with doing this is the fact that people wouldn't be treated equally if you go and tell part of the population they have to stay at home. It will be interesting to see if and what kind of solution they find for this.

mistymoney

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 564
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #243 on: March 26, 2020, 07:48:50 AM »
Discrediting scientists such as Anthony Fauci is now in full force:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDziIYqQASo&t=354s

Of course it is. Many of comments below that video were encouraging, though. Fewer and fewer right-wingers are drinking the Kool-aid as this goes on.

Just curious. Any contrarians here on this thread change their minds about the severity of this whole shebang yet?

By the way, USA passed Spain in total infections this week, and we will pass China after this weekend. Italy is still growing pretty fast, so not sure if we will get past them so soon. Eventually, the US of A certainly will.

JGS

I lean toward contrarian, but take it very seriously because I have a son and 3 grandparents who are high risk.  I don't think passing any country in terms of infections sways me one way or the other.  We are still 5-10x less infected per capita compared to Italy and Spain sitting at a 0.02% infected as a country.  We are also seemingly  experiencing a much lower death rate than expected and in my opinion are nowhere near the doom and gloom originally projected, but I will say NY is getting rocked.  Seems like WA and CA may already have the infection growth nipped, but I need to see more data to say for sure.

I'm not sure how to interpret that. Because everything you list in support of being 'contrarian' isn't because the virus isn't apocalyptic in it's spread and effects - it's only because we're all self-isolating. And without a cure or vaccine - we need to stay isolated to prevent those who didn't get it from getting it and dying at ~3% rate.

How is it contrarian to agree with the potential effects? Whether or not we locked down 'in time' to prevent worse case?

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 500
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #244 on: March 26, 2020, 07:56:57 AM »
It's like a win-win for these contrarians.

If the isolation measures work, and the infection and death rates slow down, they will say "see, it wasn't that bad and this was overblown. Only the old people died, and they were on death's doorstep anyways."

If the measures don't work, they will say "see, not only was the isolation all useless, but we also tanked the economy. We should have just all kept working."

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4965
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #245 on: March 26, 2020, 08:00:38 AM »
It's like a win-win for these contrarians.

If the isolation measures work, and the infection and death rates slow down, they will say "see, it wasn't that bad and this was overblown. Only the old people died, and they were on death's doorstep anyways."

If the measures don't work, they will say "see, not only was the isolation all useless, but we also tanked the economy. We should have just all kept working."

This.

It’s ridiculous. I’ve stopped interacting with people who act like this.

runbikerun

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 539
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #246 on: March 26, 2020, 08:05:46 AM »
I am certain. There was an article in the highly respected German newspaper " Die Welt" yesterday reporting about a debate in the Bundestag (like the Senate). As I stated earlier one of the problems with doing this is the fact that people wouldn't be treated equally if you go and tell part of the population they have to stay at home. It will be interesting to see if and what kind of solution they find for this.

Do you have a link to this article?

mizzourah2006

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 508
  • Location: NWA
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #247 on: March 26, 2020, 08:14:57 AM »
I was pointing out that virologists are advising the German government to just quarantine the vulnerable and elderly to get a solution via herd immunity which seems the only (?) solution as long as there isn't a vaccine.

Source for this? I'm looking online and cannot find anything along these lines - in fact, only on Monday, Germany banned public meetings of more than two people not from the same household.

This is really the only long-term viable solution. We can't wipe the virus off the face of the earth without a vaccine and we can't self-quarantine for 18 months. At some point we need to go back to normal, protect the most vulnerable and vigilantly test to keep huge breakouts like what we're seeing now down. That's how South Korea and China are moving forward right now. The entire argument behind flatten the curve implies this.

That doesn't imply that we go back to normal tomorrow or even in 1-2 weeks, but it does imply that we do in the relatively near future when the first wave starts to come to a conclusion.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:18:10 AM by mizzourah2006 »

Anette

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 120
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #248 on: March 26, 2020, 08:15:36 AM »
I am certain. There was an article in the highly respected German newspaper " Die Welt" yesterday reporting about a debate in the Bundestag (like the Senate). As I stated earlier one of the problems with doing this is the fact that people wouldn't be treated equally if you go and tell part of the population they have to stay at home. It will be interesting to see if and what kind of solution they find for this.

Do you have a link to this article?I

I hope the link works, I really suck at computers ;)

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article206803393/Restriktionen-wegen-Corona-Die-gezielte-Ungleichbehandlung-bahnt-sich-an.html?wtmc=socialmedia.whatsapp.shared.web

mistymoney

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 564
Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #249 on: March 26, 2020, 08:22:10 AM »
It's like a win-win for these contrarians.

If the isolation measures work, and the infection and death rates slow down, they will say "see, it wasn't that bad and this was overblown. Only the old people died, and they were on death's doorstep anyways."

If the measures don't work, they will say "see, not only was the isolation all useless, but we also tanked the economy. We should have just all kept working."

This.

It’s ridiculous. I’ve stopped interacting with people who act like this.

oh - I guess I see your point here. If it just about changing the goal posts to be "right" about statements made months ago that were clearly "wrong" then really no point in discussing further.

Kind of strange when people were getting their talking points from news personalities that were dismissing the entire epidemiological community.

Would you not begin to question your news sources when they are getting it so wrong? Instead of internalizing it - I mean as if the average joe was able to more accurately analyze and predict epidemiological trends than highly trained experts that do it for a living?

So - certain media personality decided that covid-19 warnings were somehow politically motivated - and should be resisted.

Turns out - it's even worse than predicted. And - the response is to double down on the misinformation - try to twist it into being correct? How does that work??

I just don't get it.