COVID-19 CONTRARIANS

[Roland of Gilead]

As for the idea that we can completely retool the global economy in a matter of weeks to increase medical capacity by perhaps 500-600% across the world all at once...words fail me.

Actually we probably could.  I doubt we will but technically it is likely possible to drastically increase production of medical equipment and facilities if you throw enough money and people power at it.

Remember, back in the day, with slide rules and essentially no computers we went from some blackboard drawings to a nuclear bomb in a very short time...even keeping it relatively secret.

[fattest_foot]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

[ender]

We are being told to prepare for lockdown for the rest of the year, with little or no means for the average person to provide for or to protect themselves.

I will tell anyone who is seriously considering this as a viable solution, it will absolutely not fly.  If we accept this solution, society will collapse well before the virus takes its course and we the people will be subject to a fascist geopolitical bureaucratic/dictatorship tasked to manage the crisis. I see no other logical outcome. I can almost promise authoritarian government will come to pass well before the virus clears through the population, as there will be no other way to manage the ensuing chaos... People without food, shelter, clothing, and the basic resources for survival will demand it. With guns and baseball bats....

In this setup, many, many more people will die from democide and societal collapse than from the virus.

While I'm not excited about the idea of destroying our economy, I do think it's likely that even if this situation goes on a long time, there will be a lot of adaptation happening.

While not all industries can easily adapt there are a lot I think that can. Or could be started.

[elaine amj]

Hi. I'm Italian and live in Italy, I have been reading MMM for a while, I've never written because I had nothing meaningful to add. But now I think it can be useful if I gave some information abount the current situation in Italy, since many people seem (rightly) puzzled.

The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.
If you are sick but you are in no apparent life treatening situation you are told to self-isolate and no one will test you, even if you live in a badly hit area and you develop an high fever. (I will not go into the reasons behind this policy.)
My guess is that the real number of sick people is at least ten times the official number.
This would partly explain the abnormal mortality rate in Italy and the high median age of the positive tests.

This does not mean that the situation is better than you have been told.
The army trucks in the photo are leaving the town of Bergamo, one of the worse hit in the country. They are taking the remains of I do not know how many people to other towns to be cremated, because the morgues in Bergamo are not coping.

I know that many people outside Italy think we live in the medieval ages, playing the mandolin and eating pizza. We don't. The worst affected area, the region around Milan, is the richest and more developed area in the country, its health system is excellent (and free), comparable to the German or French one. And it is not coping.

We realized that we were in the middle of this crisis too late, too late. Now 5.000 people are dead, many more will die, the country is paralized and the economy in ruins, probabily for many years.
Please, rest of the western world, learn from our mistakes. You are a few weeks behind us, you can stop everything and restart later, with less deaths, less damages to the economy, less trauma.

Thank you for this report from "the trenches" . It really help provide some perspective.

I am still hopeful we can beat this thing sooner rather than later. And that everyone will just stay inside for a few weeks! At the very least, it is worth a shot. Getting frustrated with the people who insist on ignoring all recommendations because "it's no worse than the flu". Most of us are giving up a lot to stay at home at this time - will the irresponsibility of a few negate all this?

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

[Boofinator]

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?

The industries you cite all share three things in common: they bring lots of people together, they are relatively easily shut down and restarted, and they are not critical infrastructure (https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors). So shutting down these industries, though hard on the individuals, will significantly reduce transmission, while government should do the best it can through unemployment checks and other means to soften the blows to the people most affected. This is not an Economic War. Folks dying is the main issue.

And, as a personal anecdote, I've never heard a true contrarian call themselves a contrarian.

[HPstache]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

Hey someone has done my "death trajectory after 10 deaths" chart.  Interesting.   Italy does seem to be on a trajectory of its own... crazy to see it like that, and so sad too for the people of Italy.

[bacchi]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

I can't find the source for the Dr. Auwaerter quote. There are a lot of sites quoting him but no citations. He didn't state that in his 30 minute webinar either. Any ideas?

This is what Auwaerter had on 3/10 though: https://youtu.be/hN25KVrAZs4?t=839

Pretty sobering.

tl;dr Early studies show that 50% of hospitalized patients develop hypoxemia by day 8 and 47% of ICU patients need mechanical ventilation.

[Northern gal]

Hi. I'm Italian and live in Italy, I have been reading MMM for a while, I've never written because I had nothing meaningful to add. But now I think it can be useful if I gave some information abount the current situation in Italy, since many people seem (rightly) puzzled.

The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.
If you are sick but you are in no apparent life treatening situation you are told to self-isolate and no one will test you, even if you live in a badly hit area and you develop an high fever. (I will not go into the reasons behind this policy.)
My guess is that the real number of sick people is at least ten times the official number.
This would partly explain the abnormal mortality rate in Italy and the high median age of the positive tests.

This does not mean that the situation is better than you have been told.
The army trucks in the photo are leaving the town of Bergamo, one of the worse hit in the country. They are taking the remains of I do not know how many people to other towns to be cremated, because the morgues in Bergamo are not coping.

I know that many people outside Italy think we live in the medieval ages, playing the mandolin and eating pizza. We don't. The worst affected area, the region around Milan, is the richest and more developed area in the country, its health system is excellent (and free), comparable to the German or French one. And it is not coping.

We realized that we were in the middle of this crisis too late, too late. Now 5.000 people are dead, many more will die, the country is paralized and the economy in ruins, probabily for many years.
Please, rest of the western world, learn from our mistakes. You are a few weeks behind us, you can stop everything and restart later, with less deaths, less damages to the economy, less trauma.

Thank you for sharing.

[dougules]

Hi. I'm Italian and live in Italy, I have been reading MMM for a while, I've never written because I had nothing meaningful to add. But now I think it can be useful if I gave some information abount the current situation in Italy, since many people seem (rightly) puzzled.

The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.
If you are sick but you are in no apparent life treatening situation you are told to self-isolate and no one will test you, even if you live in a badly hit area and you develop an high fever. (I will not go into the reasons behind this policy.)
My guess is that the real number of sick people is at least ten times the official number.
This would partly explain the abnormal mortality rate in Italy and the high median age of the positive tests.

This does not mean that the situation is better than you have been told.
The army trucks in the photo are leaving the town of Bergamo, one of the worse hit in the country. They are taking the remains of I do not know how many people to other towns to be cremated, because the morgues in Bergamo are not coping.

I know that many people outside Italy think we live in the medieval ages, playing the mandolin and eating pizza. We don't. The worst affected area, the region around Milan, is the richest and more developed area in the country, its health system is excellent (and free), comparable to the German or French one. And it is not coping.

We realized that we were in the middle of this crisis too late, too late. Now 5.000 people are dead, many more will die, the country is paralized and the economy in ruins, probabily for many years.
Please, rest of the western world, learn from our mistakes. You are a few weeks behind us, you can stop everything and restart later, with less deaths, less damages to the economy, less trauma.

Thanks for sharing.  A lot of us have been wanting to hear from more people in Northern Italy.  So many people in the rest of the world aren't taking it seriously.  As you can see on this thread, there are plenty of people trying to rationalize how Italy is different from their area, and how it won't be as bad for them. 

[Linea_Norway]

Hi. I'm Italian and live in Italy, I have been reading MMM for a while, I've never written because I had nothing meaningful to add. But now I think it can be useful if I gave some information abount the current situation in Italy, since many people seem (rightly) puzzled.

The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.
If you are sick but you are in no apparent life treatening situation you are told to self-isolate and no one will test you, even if you live in a badly hit area and you develop an high fever. (I will not go into the reasons behind this policy.)
My guess is that the real number of sick people is at least ten times the official number.
This would partly explain the abnormal mortality rate in Italy and the high median age of the positive tests.

This does not mean that the situation is better than you have been told.
The army trucks in the photo are leaving the town of Bergamo, one of the worse hit in the country. They are taking the remains of I do not know how many people to other towns to be cremated, because the morgues in Bergamo are not coping.

I know that many people outside Italy think we live in the medieval ages, playing the mandolin and eating pizza. We don't. The worst affected area, the region around Milan, is the richest and more developed area in the country, its health system is excellent (and free), comparable to the German or French one. And it is not coping.

We realized that we were in the middle of this crisis too late, too late. Now 5.000 people are dead, many more will die, the country is paralized and the economy in ruins, probabily for many years.
Please, rest of the western world, learn from our mistakes. You are a few weeks behind us, you can stop everything and restart later, with less deaths, less damages to the economy, less trauma.

Thanks you for your post.

I think the real number might be many times bigger than 10 x the official number. Norway has the same strategy of not testing anyone with mild symptoms. My DH got it after hardly any contact with others. We now finally have gotten a self reporting system, based on checking off symptoms on a website. In one day we got 25.000 new infected that way.

[Telecaster]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

I disagreed with large parts of it, and then I got this part and stopped reading.

As COVID-19 spreads and declines (which it will decline despite what the media tells you)

He removed all credibility with that statement.   His main problem is he's basically innumerate. 

[Glenstache]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

I disagreed with large parts of it, and then I got this part and stopped reading.

As COVID-19 spreads and declines (which it will decline despite what the media tells you)

He removed all credibility with that statement.   His main problem is he's basically innumerate.

I stopped reading when he made the case about things not being as bad because we have more people despite the metric that an individual can only infect so many people. See also Dunning-Krueger and the highly educated dumbfuck. I'm so tired of these articles.

[projekt]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

I can't find the source for the Dr. Auwaerter quote. There are a lot of sites quoting him but no citations. He didn't state that in his 30 minute webinar either. Any ideas?

This is what Auwaerter had on 3/10 though: https://youtu.be/hN25KVrAZs4?t=839

Pretty sobering.

tl;dr Early studies show that 50% of hospitalized patients develop hypoxemia by day 8 and 47% of ICU patients need mechanical ventilation.

I found this slide set

I'm not sure whether these were Auwaerter's slides or something made by an attendee, or what meaning it has in context.

[Spud]

How's this for hysteria. It took 67 days to infect the first 100,000 people worldwide. 11 days to infect the second 100,000 people. 4 days to infect the third 100,000 people. Can you spot a trend?

The US had 9300 new cases yesterday nationwide and is on 8600 and counting today.

[Bloop Bloop]

By the same token the disease is now decelerating in Italy with smaller numbers of daily infected and deaths.

Each country that has had the virus has had a trend of initial exponential growth, then levelling out, then decrease. Italy is in the levelling out stage.

[runbikerun]

By the same token the disease is now decelerating in Italy with smaller numbers of daily infected and deaths.

Each country that has had the virus has had a trend of initial exponential growth, then levelling out, then decrease. Italy is in the levelling out stage.

One country has definitely had a levelling out followed by a decrease. Italy looks as though it's levelling out, although it's probably too early to say for sure. As far as I'm aware, everyone else is still dealing with rapid expansion.

[Bloop Bloop]

A lot of the Asian countries have controlled the spread.

[runbikerun]

Fair point.

I wouldn't rush to count Italy as levelling out; they still had 651 deaths yesterday and a 10% increase in positive diagnoses compared to the day before. We don't yet know how many deaths there will be in Italy before they can consider relaxing the lockdown.

[fuzzy math]

focus our collective effort on producing the following:

Mass production of ventilators
Mass production of hospital beds and necessary infrastructure to accommodate a real set of data of those who will need medical assistance.
Medical training/voluntary assistance on a mass scale

Do you have any idea how long it takes to produce a respiratory therapist or nurse?

...

its 2 years.

[happyuk]

This social distancing and curve flattening nonsense might make things worse not better. Imagine such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great 2˝ centuries old country! They may not only not stop or slow the virus as expected but they may well ruin the economy and cause collateral deaths due to lack of services and other unanticipated events.

Like, in areas such as Los Angeles County and elsewhere where they are releasing criminals—some of whom may go on to crime, mayhem and perhaps murder. What an irony it would be to be cowering in a corner over fear of coronavirus only to be killed outright by a released criminal.

Medical treatments are being denied on the basis of vague criteria like medical necessity and "elective". Decided by whom? What if someone needs an endoscopy? What if she has cancer which, if treatment is delayed, could cause her death? I dread to think. One thing I do see is that those making these draconian decision are not usually the ones who will suffer their consequences.

This would never have happened 60 years when we had real enemies who were constantly looking for chinks in our armour and we couldn’t kill our economy because some people are afraid of getting a bug that in most instances will not even put its victims in the hospital—that in, maybe, 20% of cases is asymptomatic. That is not the bubonic plague which killed 1/3 of Europe. Yet we cower before it

[runbikerun]

This social distancing and curve flattening nonsense might make things worse not better. Imagine such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great 2˝ centuries old country! They may not only not stop or slow the virus as expected but they may well ruin the economy and cause collateral deaths due to lack of services and other unanticipated events.

Like, in areas such as Los Angeles County and elsewhere where they are releasing criminals—some of whom may go on to crime, mayhem and perhaps murder. What an irony it would be to be cowering in a corner over fear of coronavirus only to be killed outright by a released criminal.

Medical treatments are being denied on the basis of vague criteria like medical necessity and "elective". Decided by whom? What if someone needs an endoscopy? What if she has cancer which, if treatment is delayed, could cause her death? I dread to think. One thing I do see is that those making these draconian decision are not usually the ones who will suffer their consequences.

I'm beginning to hope that this is someone taking the piss.

[happyuk]

This social distancing and curve flattening nonsense might make things worse not better. Imagine such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great 2˝ centuries old country! They may not only not stop or slow the virus as expected but they may well ruin the economy and cause collateral deaths due to lack of services and other unanticipated events.

Like, in areas such as Los Angeles County and elsewhere where they are releasing criminals—some of whom may go on to crime, mayhem and perhaps murder. What an irony it would be to be cowering in a corner over fear of coronavirus only to be killed outright by a released criminal.

Medical treatments are being denied on the basis of vague criteria like medical necessity and "elective". Decided by whom? What if someone needs an endoscopy? What if she has cancer which, if treatment is delayed, could cause her death? I dread to think. One thing I do see is that those making these draconian decision are not usually the ones who will suffer their consequences.

I'm beginning to hope that this is someone taking the piss.

I would be open your correcting view of world events but aside from your usual inane one-line dismissals I fear there would be little substance to it.

[runbikerun]

For a third time: can you name any of the virologists you claimed were opposed to the current lockdown policies being pursued? Because you said yesterday that they might even constitute a majority, but I still haven't seen you name a single one.

I've seen you take the time to accuse another poster of using a "guilt-producing language tool", and I've seen you ranting incoherently about "such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great country" as though that sentence actually meant something rather than being nonsense, and I've seen you deciding that "medical necessity" is a vague concept rather than a well-understood idea used across the world, but I haven't seen you provide any evidence for the claim you insulted another poster for contradicting. All I've seen is the same crass belligerence-as-political-philosophy that infects so much of British politics.

As for the idea that this isn't really a threat: if it's not, then finding virologists on your side of the debate should be a doddle. I look forward to you providing clear evidence that a majority of virologists agree with you as per your claim yesterday.

[happyuk]

Try an think out of your narrow little box a little.  If quarantines are the right answer to this problem, as you clearly believe, then the quarantines must be held in place for at least 90 days. The virus has up to a 30 day latency period, then a two week active stage. Given that you have to keep the protections in place for at least two whole life cycles, that makes 90 days the bare minimum. 6 months would be better, just to be on the safe side.

Think about that. An entire country shut down for three to six months. No virus on earth would do as much damage to the nation as this response would.

[runbikerun]

For a fourth time: you claimed "many if not most virologists" were opposed to the lockdowns. Can you name them?

[Telecaster]

Try an think out of your narrow little box a little.  If quarantines are the right answer to this problem, as you clearly believe, then the quarantines must be held in place for at least 90 days. The virus has up to a 30 day latency period, then a two week active stage. Given that you have to keep the protections in place for at least two whole life cycles, that makes 90 days the bare minimum. 6 months would be better, just to be on the safe side.

Think about that. An entire country shut down for three to six months. No virus on earth would do as much damage to the nation as this response would.

Where do you come up with this stuff?  The median latency period is about five days, over 97% show symptoms within 11 days: 

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

[Boofinator]

Try an think out of your narrow little box a little.  If quarantines are the right answer to this problem, as you clearly believe, then the quarantines must be held in place for at least 90 days. The virus has up to a 30 day latency period, then a two week active stage. Given that you have to keep the protections in place for at least two whole life cycles, that makes 90 days the bare minimum. 6 months would be better, just to be on the safe side.

Think about that. An entire country shut down for three to six months. No virus on earth would do as much damage to the nation as this response would.

Care to cite your sources? Everything I've read shows a max latency of 14 days, meaning a month of lockdown would essentially wipe this out if people followed the rules (following lockdown, we would still need strong isolation procedures for anybody who is still ill or comes in contact with those who are ill following the end of lockdown, and of course travel bans as necessary).

[ender]

How's this for hysteria. It took 67 days to infect the first 100,000 people worldwide. 11 days to infect the second 100,000 people. 4 days to infect the third 100,000 people. Can you spot a trend?

The US had 9300 new cases yesterday nationwide and is on 8600 and counting today.

Infected != tested. Both are rising. But an increase in testing from "shit tier" to "we actually are testing" will make the number of observed infections increase dramatically.

It's probably more meaningful at this point in places with low testing numbers to look at hospitalizations/deaths as a proxy for growth rate ~1 week prior because it's more of an absolute number until testing has enough numbers to realistically be capturing a real growth rate.

[OtherJen]

Try an think out of your narrow little box a little.  If quarantines are the right answer to this problem, as you clearly believe, then the quarantines must be held in place for at least 90 days. The virus has up to a 30 day latency period, then a two week active stage. Given that you have to keep the protections in place for at least two whole life cycles, that makes 90 days the bare minimum. 6 months would be better, just to be on the safe side.

Think about that. An entire country shut down for three to six months. No virus on earth would do as much damage to the nation as this response would.

Sources, please. Citations from actual governmental infectious disease departments or peer-reviewed research journals required.

[bacchi]

That Medium article that was taken down has been reposted:

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

You may disagree with parts of it, but it has a lot of worthwhile things to consider.

I can't find the source for the Dr. Auwaerter quote. There are a lot of sites quoting him but no citations. He didn't state that in his 30 minute webinar either. Any ideas?

This is what Auwaerter had on 3/10 though: https://youtu.be/hN25KVrAZs4?t=839

Pretty sobering.

tl;dr Early studies show that 50% of hospitalized patients develop hypoxemia by day 8 and 47% of ICU patients need mechanical ventilation.

I found this slide set

I'm not sure whether these were Auwaerter's slides or something made by an attendee, or what meaning it has in context.

That's it, thanks.

[Abe]

NYC deaths per day is exponentially increasing at this point, so I think the increase in numbers is not just due to more testing, but more progression to symptomatic disease. Obviously the question is when does the exponential curve plateau.
I'm not good at posting images, but here's the table:

Mar 10: 0
Mar 13: 0
Mar 14: 2
Mar 15: 1
Mar 16: 7
Mar 17: 3
Mar 18: 3
Mar 19: 18
Mar 20: 8
Mar 21: 34
Mar 22: 41
Mar 23: 40

Doubling time is currently 1.3 days (log 2 of deaths / day fit equation is y=0.78x)

Interestingly, Italy's increase in deaths has been linear, not exponential, for about the last week. Still, there's been 6000 deaths in the last month from the virus with no sign of a slowdown.


Also I concur that the incubation period is median 5-7 days, maximum reported of 14 days. So that's a month of lockdown, or two months if we use happyuk's somewhat arbitrary definition of what is safe.

Sources:
Case numbers - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Incubation length -
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7014672/
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

[bacchi]

Italy had its second day of death declines when compared to the previous day.

See 3/23 vs 3/22 vs 3/21.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[Ryo]

A lot of people citing Italian and Asian numbers here, but (as the poster above from Italy said) testing itself is limited.  You cannot get an accurate count of confirmed cases without testing.

In Japan, where I am, nobody has a clue about the real numbers, because they simply aren't testing.  We had a friend who had pneumonia last month but they refused to test her.  She got better, but still doesn't know whether she had it or not.  In this situation, it's no wonder Japan has only 1,900 or so confirmed cases, which is odd given there were early cases in January, combined with the population density and the hellish commute most people have here on packed trains (you ever see those pictures of railway employees physically pushing in commuters? Trying to implement social distancing would be laughable).  Life goes on as normal here in the meantime. 

So take any statistics we have today with a huge grain of salt as their accuracy is questionable at best.

[rob in cal]

  So, in terms of deaths per day in the heavily hit areas like NYC, Wash, New Orleans etc., in, say, 10 days from now, what would be a number that would indicate that the contrarians are right, and that while this is a serious situation, its not nearly as serious as the other side is suggesting?

[HPstache]

  So, in terms of deaths per day in the heavily hit areas like NYC, Wash, New Orleans etc., in, say, 10 days from now, what would be a number that would indicate that the contrarians are right, and that while this is a serious situation, its not nearly as serious as the other side is suggesting?

I asked the same question 8 days ago, and here was one response:

So what will the evidence be in 10-14 days?  A certain number of deaths?  A certain number of infections?  A certain trajectory?  Can we trust infection counts with such shitty rules about testing here in the US?

We are about 10-14 days behind Italy in the infection curve.  Maybe less due to our lack of testing.   So, if that's the case, then our medical infrastructure will be completely overwhelmed in about two weeks.  If everything is chugging along fine, then it was all a big scam, like Ayyadurai says.

I'm not saying this is the end all for whether the contrarians are correct, but it is a opinion data point that is reaching maturity...

[Bloop Bloop]

  So, in terms of deaths per day in the heavily hit areas like NYC, Wash, New Orleans etc., in, say, 10 days from now, what would be a number that would indicate that the contrarians are right, and that while this is a serious situation, its not nearly as serious as the other side is suggesting?

I think it is safe to say that if in 2 weeks, NYC/the US have fewer deaths than what Italy does now, the contrarians will have been proven right - the curve has been bent.

Both NYC and Italy now seem to no longer be increasing daily deaths (or only marginally).

[happyuk]

For a third time: can you name any of the virologists you claimed were opposed to the current lockdown policies being pursued? Because you said yesterday that they might even constitute a majority, but I still haven't seen you name a single one.

I've seen you take the time to accuse another poster of using a "guilt-producing language tool", and I've seen you ranting incoherently about "such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great country" as though that sentence actually meant something rather than being nonsense, and I've seen you deciding that "medical necessity" is a vague concept rather than a well-understood idea used across the world, but I haven't seen you provide any evidence for the claim you insulted another poster for contradicting. All I've seen is the same crass belligerence-as-political-philosophy that infects so much of British politics.

As for the idea that this isn't really a threat: if it's not, then finding virologists on your side of the debate should be a doddle. I look forward to you providing clear evidence that a majority of virologists agree with you as per your claim yesterday.

I didn't sign any contract that says I have to answer any question you can think of. Some questions don't need an answer even though you think they do.  You are more than capable of looking this stuff up yourself.

However Professor Didier Raoult says quite clearly that the contaminated should be isolated and not the others.  He explains their experience with the cure used by the Chinese.  The disaster of halting an entire economy is irreversible and the consequences enormous.  The better measure would have been testing on a large scale.  These scientific committees enlisted by the French and the Italians had no objection to people staying at home.  But neither did they have any objection to people going about their business.
  Then the politicians came along and made it mandatory to sign an official form to go for a walk.

[ender]

  So, in terms of deaths per day in the heavily hit areas like NYC, Wash, New Orleans etc., in, say, 10 days from now, what would be a number that would indicate that the contrarians are right, and that while this is a serious situation, its not nearly as serious as the other side is suggesting?

I think it is safe to say that if in 2 weeks, NYC/the US have fewer deaths than what Italy does now, the contrarians will have been proven right - the curve has been bent.

Both NYC and Italy now seem to no longer be increasing daily deaths (or only marginally).

The problem is that there are multiple reasons deaths/day in NYC area might not go up and people will pick whichever they prefer.

• This was all a conspiracy by <insert whoever you dislike the most>
• Social distancing methods caused much lower community spread
• Different demographics

In this event, people will latch onto whichever theory they personally think happened.

[T-Money$]

For a third time: can you name any of the virologists you claimed were opposed to the current lockdown policies being pursued? Because you said yesterday that they might even constitute a majority, but I still haven't seen you name a single one.

I've seen you take the time to accuse another poster of using a "guilt-producing language tool", and I've seen you ranting incoherently about "such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great country" as though that sentence actually meant something rather than being nonsense, and I've seen you deciding that "medical necessity" is a vague concept rather than a well-understood idea used across the world, but I haven't seen you provide any evidence for the claim you insulted another poster for contradicting. All I've seen is the same crass belligerence-as-political-philosophy that infects so much of British politics.

As for the idea that this isn't really a threat: if it's not, then finding virologists on your side of the debate should be a doddle. I look forward to you providing clear evidence that a majority of virologists agree with you as per your claim yesterday.

While not a virologist to my knowledge, the Former CDC Director under Obama has come out against the lockdowns and quarantines.  There have been many MDs that have been against the current paradigm. 

Regarding accuracy of disease projections, the WHO last week announced that the death rate in China was only 41% of the initial projection (it is actually probably even much lower than that, as China defines those infected as testing positive AND having symptoms).  The death rate in New York City has not increased exponentially.   In Wuhan, the death rate was only 1/44th (2.2%) of the worst case scenario.  Italy has approximately 6,000 deaths to date in a country of almost 61 million people, and their virus numbers may very well indicate a peak.

So yes, the paradigm presented by politicians-world leaders-"political" medicine seem to be not even close to reality.  Everything points to them having blown this one, perhaps one of the biggest blunders in modern "science".

You know what is turning out far worse than predicted?  The economic numbers in Asia and Europe.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Guys, there's no point engaging in this discussion. Events will prove certain people wrong. End of story.

[verfrugal]

This reminds me of the conversation around IPCC climate scenarios, and the use of “business as usual” and “worst case” scenarios.  The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder just did a great podcast on the topic, and I highly reccomend that show and the entire series.

A key takeaway for me was that the modelers and statisticians think in terms of sets of scenarios, with different probabilities attached to them — whereas those pushing for policies, or trying to understand risks and generate urgency (activists) latch on to specific scenarios. This simplification from an array of possible outcomes is also driven by headlines and journalism’s attempt to deal with short attention spans and the readers desire for conclusions.

The result is that we latch on to the biggest numbers, which are within the realm of possibility, but not so probable.  This happened with the numbers we have seen thrown around for the impact of COVID-19 — just as they do for the “business as usual” scenarios in the IPCC.

In both cases, we also have action taken to mitigate, and a changing landscape for the scenarios to unfold, which change many of the assumptions of the “business as usual” scenarios, and make them even less likely.  For example, oil and coal usage in some of the IPCC scenarios reflects growth rates that industry itself says are ridiculous and are also against current trends downward in oil and coal use, and the growth of renewables.  We also see that testing and isolation works to slow the spread of  COVID-19, and few polities are doing nothing at all.

Combine these effects rooted in the difference between common language and rhetoric, and the language and rhetoric of science and modeling, add a dash of fear and political rhetoric, and you got a shit storm of sensationalism, blame, fear mongering, over-simplification and confusion.  The storm lays a blanket of shit on top of an already unknowable and complex situation that will play out on an ever changing board.

I’m not suggesting we should all be agnostics on the topics, giving up to marvel at the unknown and mysterious.  I would argue that we should understand more the rhetoric and structure of the science behind this, and learn how to make decisions and act to manage probable risks, bend the envelope of outcomes away from the worse case, and recognize that our actions impact our reality and thus previous models and predictions.  This is IMO, a much more productive use of our collective power than arguing over wether a prediction was right or wrong, or about a policy decision made by politicians was correct or not.  We’re all embedded in communities where we have resources and social power to act and influence — even if we may have not cultivated that knowledge and connection, we can rekindle it.

I also think we should start to imagine what a society that was resilient to two weeks or months of this kind of disruption would look like.  We’re a global economic system with circulation of currency, goods and people at massive levels of mixing — optimizing for maximum extraction of profit from minimal cost of labor was one of the drivers shaping our current system.  We have citizens with no margin to absorb the disruptions.

[mancityfan]

I used to follow this guy, but have unsubscribed. He is a contrarian. He blames the virus on the Chinese, Liberals, the Media, Bernie, Elites, Dark State etc etc all in a few short minutes. He is actually very lucid with some of his financial advice but has gone on a days long rant about this which gets crazier by the day. It is actually interesting to listen to in a way, because you get an insight into the thinking process that the contrarians use:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWHHQNvpWbc&t=169s

[Zette]

This would never have happened 60 years when we had real enemies who were constantly looking for chinks in our armour and we couldn’t kill our economy because some people are afraid of getting a bug that in most instances will not even put its victims in the hospital—that in, maybe, 20% of cases is asymptomatic. That is not the bubonic plague which killed 1/3 of Europe. Yet we cower before it

100 years ago the Spanish Flu shut down WWI.  Pandemic beats wartime can-do.

[renata ricotta]

For a third time: can you name any of the virologists you claimed were opposed to the current lockdown policies being pursued? Because you said yesterday that they might even constitute a majority, but I still haven't seen you name a single one.

I've seen you take the time to accuse another poster of using a "guilt-producing language tool", and I've seen you ranting incoherently about "such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great country" as though that sentence actually meant something rather than being nonsense, and I've seen you deciding that "medical necessity" is a vague concept rather than a well-understood idea used across the world, but I haven't seen you provide any evidence for the claim you insulted another poster for contradicting. All I've seen is the same crass belligerence-as-political-philosophy that infects so much of British politics.

As for the idea that this isn't really a threat: if it's not, then finding virologists on your side of the debate should be a doddle. I look forward to you providing clear evidence that a majority of virologists agree with you as per your claim yesterday.

While not a virologist to my knowledge, the Former CDC Director under Obama has come out against the lockdowns and quarantines.  There have been many MDs that have been against the current paradigm. 

Regarding accuracy of disease projections, the WHO last week announced that the death rate in China was only 41% of the initial projection (it is actually probably even much lower than that, as China defines those infected as testing positive AND having symptoms).  The death rate in New York City has not increased exponentially.   In Wuhan, the death rate was only 1/44th (2.2%) of the worst case scenario.  Italy has approximately 6,000 deaths to date in a country of almost 61 million people, and their virus numbers may very well indicate a peak.

So yes, the paradigm presented by politicians-world leaders-"political" medicine seem to be not even close to reality.  Everything points to them having blown this one, perhaps one of the biggest blunders in modern "science".

You know what is turning out far worse than predicted?  The economic numbers in Asia and Europe.

What are you even talking about?

Tom Friedan has not condemned shelter in place; all he's said is that we need to adapt quickly to address problems like making sure our food and medical supply chains don't get disrupted, and other common sense procedures that we need to be thinking about in addition to social distancing. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html.

New York cases are absolutely exponentially increasing. They're currently doubling every three days, and the "attack rate" is the worst in the world, infecting 1 in 1000 people. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-newyork&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_newyork#link-37111bf1. [This is a live update feed with many stories embedded; I'll try to find a link that's guaranteed to be stable]

This is truly alarmingly irresponsible rhetoric you're pushing here. 

[T-Money$]

For a third time: can you name any of the virologists you claimed were opposed to the current lockdown policies being pursued? Because you said yesterday that they might even constitute a majority, but I still haven't seen you name a single one.

I've seen you take the time to accuse another poster of using a "guilt-producing language tool", and I've seen you ranting incoherently about "such intellectual pygmies determining the direction and destiny of a great country" as though that sentence actually meant something rather than being nonsense, and I've seen you deciding that "medical necessity" is a vague concept rather than a well-understood idea used across the world, but I haven't seen you provide any evidence for the claim you insulted another poster for contradicting. All I've seen is the same crass belligerence-as-political-philosophy that infects so much of British politics.

As for the idea that this isn't really a threat: if it's not, then finding virologists on your side of the debate should be a doddle. I look forward to you providing clear evidence that a majority of virologists agree with you as per your claim yesterday.

While not a virologist to my knowledge, the Former CDC Director under Obama has come out against the lockdowns and quarantines.  There have been many MDs that have been against the current paradigm. 

Regarding accuracy of disease projections, the WHO last week announced that the death rate in China was only 41% of the initial projection (it is actually probably even much lower than that, as China defines those infected as testing positive AND having symptoms).  The death rate in New York City has not increased exponentially.   In Wuhan, the death rate was only 1/44th (2.2%) of the worst case scenario.  Italy has approximately 6,000 deaths to date in a country of almost 61 million people, and their virus numbers may very well indicate a peak.

So yes, the paradigm presented by politicians-world leaders-"political" medicine seem to be not even close to reality.  Everything points to them having blown this one, perhaps one of the biggest blunders in modern "science".

You know what is turning out far worse than predicted?  The economic numbers in Asia and Europe.

What are you even talking about?

Tom Friedan has not condemned shelter in place; all he's said is that we need to adapt quickly to address problems like making sure our food and medical supply chains don't get disrupted, and other common sense procedures that we need to be thinking about in addition to social distancing. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html.

New York cases are absolutely exponentially increasing. They're currently doubling every three days, and the "attack rate" is the worst in the world, infecting 1 in 1000 people. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-newyork&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_newyork#link-37111bf1. [This is a live update feed with many stories embedded; I'll try to find a link that's guaranteed to be stable]

This is truly alarmingly irresponsible rhetoric you're pushing here.

There is nothing in the article you linked that shows Tom Friednan advocating for widespread lockdowns.

Tom Friednan:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/16/21181025/coronavirus-covid-19-us-testing-pandemic

"But closing all schools may not make sense right now. Unless there is documented widespread community transmission — something we’re not yet seeing in most of the country — there is no need to close schools. An interim intervention is to allow schools to remain open but require them to enable online options for teachers and students who are medically vulnerable. We must consider the huge societal costs of closing schools against what may be little or no health benefit — particularly if kids continue to go out and are increasingly cared for by grandparents and others who are vulnerable."

"Sheltering in place" means stay at home.  By keeping schools open and advocating children attend it's obvious the message is not to "shelter in place".

At no point in time did I bring up the infection rate in New York City.  I talked about the death rate, the amount of death.  It's possible everyone will be infected by this virus, most will never know they have been infected.

Your emotional excesses and manipulation of what I wrote fit the definition of hysteria.  Your ego is not your amigo.

[erutio]

The # of deaths in new york is absolutely growing exponentially.

[Telecaster]

While not a virologist to my knowledge, the Former CDC Director under Obama has come out against the lockdowns and quarantines.  There have been many MDs that have been against the current paradigm. 

Regarding accuracy of disease projections, the WHO last week announced that the death rate in China was only 41% of the initial projection (it is actually probably even much lower than that, as China defines those infected as testing positive AND having symptoms).  The death rate in New York City has not increased exponentially.   In Wuhan, the death rate was only 1/44th (2.2%) of the worst case scenario.  Italy has approximately 6,000 deaths to date in a country of almost 61 million people, and their virus numbers may very well indicate a peak.

So yes, the paradigm presented by politicians-world leaders-"political" medicine seem to be not even close to reality.  Everything points to them having blown this one, perhaps one of the biggest blunders in modern "science".

You know what is turning out far worse than predicted?  The economic numbers in Asia and Europe.

China did not see the worst case scenario because they locked down a city of 12 million people and they are just now easing restrictions.   You can return to work, but only if you have certificate stating you have tested negative and do not have a fever. 

Deaths in NYC are up 33% from yesterday, which was up 25% from the day before.  That's exponential growth. 

[PJC74]

this thing is way overblown

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic originated in the United States before spreading around the world, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A later study suggested it was first diagnosed in humans in Mexico. The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400 people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year. Unusually, about 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age.

This was a time when the market was just past it's March low. Can you imagine if this was treated like Covid 19 at this fragile time, the depression would still be going on.

[erutio]

this thing is way overblown

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic originated in the United States before spreading around the world, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A later study suggested it was first diagnosed in humans in Mexico. The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400 people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year. Unusually, about 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age.

This was a time when the market was just past it's March low. Can you imagine if this was treated like Covid 19 at this fragile time, the depression would still be going on.

Perhaps. 
We will never know, but had the US started more stringent measures for in 2009 H1N1 like they are doing now for COVID19, and as a result of the actions, the deaths were say...6000 instead of 12,469, would have been a more acceptable outcome? 

[Telecaster]

this thing is way overblown

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic originated in the United States before spreading around the world, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A later study suggested it was first diagnosed in humans in Mexico. The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400 people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year. Unusually, about 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age.

The H1N1 comparisons need to die.  At similar points in the outbreak, already an order of magnitude more people have died from COVID than H1N1 and there was a vaccine available before the start of flu season. 

Rush Limbaugh and Fox News' disinformation campaign has done a great disservice to our country.