Count down to full USA shut down

[GuitarStv]

84 / 1, 860, 000  is certain to have rooted out all the cases.  :P

You certainly aren't wrong about the test coverage. I'm still not sure about the national lockdown. Or to put it another way: I'm in Oregon and we are already locked down. Why do we need a national lockdown? Are other states totally incompetent? More totally incompetent than the federal administration? Or should we let states go into and out of lockdown when it makes sense for them?

The analogy would be the EU. Do we need an EU wide lockdown, or should individual EU member states chose when it is best for them?

I have no idea, honestly.  My inclination is to listen to what the doctors who study this virus say.

[markbike528CBX]

Washington State is in:


As I trust media as far as I can throw them, I thought I'd post the official statements, to lessen speculation on them.
https://www.governor.wa.gov/office-governor/official-actions/proclamations
 .....Snip........

Discussion?

So that just applies to restaurants, bars, etc and not to people's regular jobs right? Washintonians still report to their manufacturing or office jobs unless they are specifically sick.  Or they may be staying home, but they haven't officially been required to stay home.

Michigan is already at that level.  I am expecting the next step will be a mandate to close all non-essential businesses.  I mean we have like 90 people at our plant, and if this shit has an outbreak here and everyone in our plant gets infected it will result in hundreds if not thousands of infections.  People could very easily get infected in this plant.  I frequently see guys come out of stalls in the locker room after pooping and not washing their hands.  We've stressed to everyone to wash your hands, but these are the regular habits of the animals I work with, so I won't be surprised if everyone got infected here.  There is no chance of management shutting this place down without a government mandate though.

As far as I know it specifically calls for RETAIL activities to cease or modify, does not mention wholesale (I'm thinking beer distributors here) or other jobs.

[dblaace]

(CNN)West Virginia became the 50th state to report a case of the deadly novel coronavirus when Gov. Jim Justice announced the first positive test result Tuesday.

[markbike528CBX]

@markbike528CBX , what's the deal with bowling in Washington?  That seems like an odd activity to call out so directly in the proclamation.

Maybe the Gov is pissed about his 9 score with 10 gutterballs :-)   Not sure on the callout.
I wouldn't necessarily think about bowling if only restaurants or bars were called out, even though our local bowling ally is a bar, restaurant, casino, kids game room, comedy club, outdoor cigar smoking etc.

Although the description makes it seem like the only game in a small town, there are lots of other restaurants, bars in this town of 40,000.

[Queen Frugal]

I for one call mercy.

My 9 year old's school was just cancelled... for the rest of the entire year.

School has been "cancelled" for 2 days now and I can tell you I am failing miserably at home schooling.

Because I run my own business. I am a lawyer and all of my clients are high risk.

Today, all of my hearings in all of my courts were cancelled. Indefinitely.

And I had to go to a client's home for them to sign their estate plan. I watched a kind old woman lick and turn every fucking page I gave her and I thought to myself, how am I going to go take care of my elderly high risk mother and keep meeting with clients this way? It's bad enough I left my 9 year old home alone to meet with my clients.

And no one is even dying yet. But, they will.

Mercy.

[Omy]

It's bad enough I left my 9 year old home alone to meet with my clients.

That's a lot to deal with, Queen Frugal. Though I just cracked up at the image of your 9 year old meeting with your clients.

[FIKris]

I guess it'll happen Friday, after the markets close. 

[Sibley]

@Queen Frugal well, on the home school front - contact the teacher. All the ones I know have been researching and sharing information, there's a bunch of educational sites that are doing free stuff. Plus whatever the schools might have paid for. The teacher will probably be able to help you out some with resources. It won't help with the actual doing schoolwork stuff, but realistically, if you can devote a few hours to homeschool and work inbetween....

Good luck.

[LaineyAZ]

So would a full shut down include no air travel at all? 

[HPstache]

@markbike528CBX , what's the deal with bowling in Washington?  That seems like an odd activity to call out so directly in the proclamation.

Just a particularly germ-y social gathering place I suppose.  I dont think we bowl more than average here.  Pickleball on the other hand....

[Telecaster]

The fact that cities and states are forcing all public establishments (bars, restaurants, etc) to close is absolutely bananas. Yes, it may save a couple more lives but the long-term economic impacts of these decisions are going to be drastically worse than COVID-19 from a health standpoint.

Bullshit. 

[Paper Chaser]

@markbike528CBX , what's the deal with bowling in Washington?  That seems like an odd activity to call out so directly in the proclamation.

The first thing many people do when they go bowling, is put their foot into a shoe that thousands of other people have worn. Then, they go stick their fingers into a series of balls that thousands of others have also fingered, and continue to "try them out" until they find one that fits and is a proper weight.

[frugalnacho]

@markbike528CBX , what's the deal with bowling in Washington?  That seems like an odd activity to call out so directly in the proclamation.

The first thing many people do when they go bowling, is put their foot into a shoe that thousands of other people have worn. Then, they go stick their fingers into a series of balls that thousands of others have also fingered, and continue to "try them out" until they find one that fits and is a proper weight.

Exactly.  When you bowl with someone, you are bowling with every person they've ever bowled with.

It's starting to look walking deadesque out in michigan.  I've never seen traffic so light, or so few pedestrians out.  I feel a bit crazy still going to work, but they haven't shut our business down and the owners are hell bent on not closing.  It will take a government mandate to make them shut down.  I'd like to hunker down with my family...but I risk losing my job if I stop showing up. 

[rantk81]

How many american lives would be saved by "flattening the curve" vs. letting the virus run rampant while keeping the economy still "mostly" going?

A few thousand?  A few tens of thousands?  A hundred thousand?  A million?

Yeah, it's bad.  Very bad.  But not "American-Way-Of-Life and Society-Ending Bad".

Saving "how many lives" is worth plunging the economy into a Depression by choice?  Not a recession.  But a full on Depression, the likes of which could be worse than the 1930s.  That could be "American-Way-Of-Life and Society-Ending Bad" ...

I don't have the answers.

[Omy]

Social distancing and flattening the curve might keep fatalities down to 1-2 million in the US (assume 40-70% of us are infected and 1% mortality rate for the infected).

If we overwhelm the health care system it may jump to a 5-10% fatality rate...so 5-20 million people could die. How much is a life worth to you? Are you willing to sacrifice a bit of money to save mom or grandma?

[rantk81]

I'm not advocating for any particular course of action. I'm just pondering the systemic big questions.

Yes, Of course I'm willing to sacrifice a bit of money to save grandma and grandpa.

Call me selfish if you like, ... but I'm not willing to sacrifice my entire life savings and sacrifice to the point of not having a "Western lifestyle" for the rest of my life, in order to save 1/20th of a person, though.

[Omy]

I just did some math to answer your question...

I know hundreds of people. I love 40 people...including several who are high risk. I'm not willing to kill off 2 of them to save some inconvenience and money. I will get my freedom and money back in time. The dead are lost forever.

Would your mind change if it only affected people in your specific age range? Or if it took out babies and children?

[OtherJen]

@markbike528CBX , what's the deal with bowling in Washington?  That seems like an odd activity to call out so directly in the proclamation.

The first thing many people do when they go bowling, is put their foot into a shoe that thousands of other people have worn. Then, they go stick their fingers into a series of balls that thousands of others have also fingered, and continue to "try them out" until they find one that fits and is a proper weight.

Exactly.  When you bowl with someone, you are bowling with every person they've ever bowled with.

It's starting to look walking deadesque out in michigan.  I've never seen traffic so light, or so few pedestrians out.  I feel a bit crazy still going to work, but they haven't shut our business down and the owners are hell bent on not closing.  It will take a government mandate to make them shut down.  I'd like to hunker down with my family...but I risk losing my job if I stop showing up.

Husband’s employer is the same. He’s a manager in non-essential retail so we figure it’s just a matter of time. His store has been very busy, but people have mostly been decent about personal space.

It is surreal. The local Joe Randazzo’s is always busy. Yesterday, it was about half as full as normal on a weekday morning. I was glad because I could get in and out quickly with everything on my list (except baking potatoes), but it was very weird.

[Cassie]

Nevada’s governor has closed all nonessential businesses. It’s the right call but many jobs are tourist and services.

[frugalnacho]

NY governor just ordered that non-essential businesses can have no more than 50% of their workforce report for work outside of WFH.  A literal half measure.

[dandarc]

NY governor just ordered that non-essential businesses can have no more than 50% of their workforce report for work outside of WFH.  A literal half measure.

Florida's governer did a half measure like this with restaurants yesterday - must operate at 50% capacity or lower and space people out within the restaurant. Did close all bars and night clubs 100% though.

Very middle of the road response here so far - concerning given our famously large senior population.

[frugalnacho]

Let the bodies hit the floor, let the bodies hit the floor, let the bodies hit the floor, let the bodies hit the..... floooooooor!!!!!!!!

[laserlady]

Meanwhile, Salt Lake County residents are getting a double dose of shelter-in-place warnings after a 5.7 earthquake this morning.  It hit at about 7:10 this morning -- right when all the older people were using their dedicated senior shopping hour to try to stay away from younger carriers of COVID-19.

[Free Spirit]

NY governor just ordered that non-essential businesses can have no more than 50% of their workforce report for work outside of WFH.  A literal half measure.

Florida's governer did a half measure like this with restaurants yesterday - must operate at 50% capacity or lower and space people out within the restaurant. Did close all bars and night clubs 100% though.

Very middle of the road response here so far - concerning given our famously large senior population.

As a restaurant worker I am seriously pissed off and panicked about this decision. All of these asshats not willing to give up their daily filet and chardonnay absolutely disgust me. They don’t give a shit about the risks they are taking as long as they are alive and kicking, they are gonna do whatever they want. Oh, and most customers have been in the high risk age group and they make a point to tell me how overblown it is. Every day I feel like I’m about to serve these people their death meal, it’s insane.

I hope my work decides to shut down but I know better. And I feel guilty for thinking this way because of all the industry people who lost their jobs recently. I know most would jump at the chance to take my place but I can’t help but think we are prolonging the inevitable, and that Florida is about to become the next Italy.

[frugalnacho]

NY governor just ordered that non-essential businesses can have no more than 50% of their workforce report for work outside of WFH.  A literal half measure.

Florida's governer did a half measure like this with restaurants yesterday - must operate at 50% capacity or lower and space people out within the restaurant. Did close all bars and night clubs 100% though.

Very middle of the road response here so far - concerning given our famously large senior population.

As a restaurant worker I am seriously pissed off and panicked about this decision. All of these asshats not willing to give up their daily filet and chardonnay absolutely disgust me. They don’t give a shit about the risks they are taking as long as they are alive and kicking, they are gonna do whatever they want. Oh, and most customers have been in the high risk age group and they make a point to tell me how overblown it is. Every day I feel like I’m about to serve these people their death meal, it’s insane.

I hope my work decides to shut down but I know better. And I feel guilty for thinking this way because of all the industry people who lost their jobs recently. I know most would jump at the chance to take my place but I can’t help but think we are prolonging the inevitable, and that Florida is about to become the next Italy.

Don't be so grim about Florida free spirit.  The entire USA is about to become the next Italy.

[Free Spirit]

86 America.

[runbikerun]

How many american lives would be saved by "flattening the curve" vs. letting the virus run rampant while keeping the economy still "mostly" going?

A few thousand?  A few tens of thousands?  A hundred thousand?  A million?

Yeah, it's bad.  Very bad.  But not "American-Way-Of-Life and Society-Ending Bad".

Saving "how many lives" is worth plunging the economy into a Depression by choice?  Not a recession.  But a full on Depression, the likes of which could be worse than the 1930s.  That could be "American-Way-Of-Life and Society-Ending Bad" ...

I don't have the answers.

It has a very real chance of becoming the most colossal loss of life in American history since the annihilation of the native American population.

I feel when talking to Americans online as though something of the scale of what's happening is lost in translation across the Atlantic. Italy (and more specifically the region of Lombardy) is being assaulted at a horrifying pace. The first coronavirus death in Italy was on the 22nd of February, less than a month ago. So far, the virus has killed almost three thousand people and infected over 35,000. In a month.

And even those figures don't demonstrate the full scale of the horror. Most of Italy is almost completely untouched by the virus; about 80-90% of diagnoses and cases are from Lombardy, with a population of a mere ten million. Lombardy has now had about 0.3% of its entire population test positive, and has been in lockdown for ten days - and they've lost well over two thousand souls in four weeks.

And even then, the horror goes deeper. The first Italian death was on the 21st of February. The tenth death was on the 25th. The hundredth death was on the fourth of March. The thousandth death was on the twelfth of March. In the last six days, the death toll has trebled. That rise will (hopefully) be arrested in the next few days, as the effect of the lockdown starts making itself felt, but you can see from the numbers just how fast things can get out of control without decisive action.

Lombardy went into lockdown on the eighth of March, when there were 7,375 cases and 366 deaths. Today, ten days on, there are 35,713 cases and 2,978 deaths.

Take a piece of graph paper, and map out that exponential growth on a curve. See how many days your state will last based on the Italian data before it hits 50% infection without action. Be conservative if you like, and assume it's eight days for a digit to be added to the number of positive tests. Then remember that those numbers are for Italy as a whole, and that Lombardy is about four or five times worse.

[Hirondelle]

NY governor just ordered that non-essential businesses can have no more than 50% of their workforce report for work outside of WFH.  A literal half measure.

Florida's governer did a half measure like this with restaurants yesterday - must operate at 50% capacity or lower and space people out within the restaurant. Did close all bars and night clubs 100% though.

Very middle of the road response here so far - concerning given our famously large senior population.

As a restaurant worker I am seriously pissed off and panicked about this decision. All of these asshats not willing to give up their daily filet and chardonnay absolutely disgust me. They don’t give a shit about the risks they are taking as long as they are alive and kicking, they are gonna do whatever they want. Oh, and most customers have been in the high risk age group and they make a point to tell me how overblown it is. Every day I feel like I’m about to serve these people their death meal, it’s insane.

I hope my work decides to shut down but I know better. And I feel guilty for thinking this way because of all the industry people who lost their jobs recently. I know most would jump at the chance to take my place but I can’t help but think we are prolonging the inevitable, and that Florida is about to become the next Italy.

Don't be so grim about Florida free spirit.  The entire USA is about to become the next Italy.

Y'all have to try harder though. Spain, France and Germany are still ahead of the curve of becoming the next Italy!

[frugalnacho]

We can do this guys! USA! USA!

[dandarc]

We can do this guys! USA! USA!

Less than 100 away from both Germany and Spain on daily new cases. Already passed South Korea and France. Looking like maybe a couple days before the overall numbers jump us all the way into 3rd - we're coming for Iran too here.

[GuitarStv]

We can do this guys! USA! USA!

Less than 100 away from both Germany and Spain on daily new cases. Already passed South Korea and France. Looking like maybe a couple days before the overall numbers jump us all the way into 3rd - we're coming for Iran too here.

But will Trump's excellent early game ensure that you beat China?

[laserlady]

Is this the new replacement for March Madness?  if so, I'm putting all my money on the USA for global COVID-19 champion.  It'll take a bit for our case counts and death toll to catch up, but I believe in us.

[martyconlonontherun]

Social distancing and flattening the curve might keep fatalities down to 1-2 million in the US (assume 40-70% of us are infected and 1% mortality rate for the infected).

If we overwhelm the health care system it may jump to a 5-10% fatality rate...so 5-20 million people could die. How much is a life worth to you? Are you willing to sacrifice a bit of money to save mom or grandma?

No way to really know and i think your numbers are high, but I totally agree.

Anyone thinking this is over kill, read stories about families in Italy not able to call their dying grandparents (calling because they are already barred from seeing) because there are not enough nurses to help with phone calls because of too many patients and then after death having their parents/grandparents immediately cremated without a funeral. Basically everyone will know someone this happens to if we do nothing. Yea, it f-ing sucks you lost your business or 40% of your 401k, but you are still alive and will move on with your life

[the_fixer]

We can do this guys! USA! USA!

Less than 100 away from both Germany and Spain on daily new cases. Already passed South Korea and France. Looking like maybe a couple days before the overall numbers jump us all the way into 3rd - we're coming for Iran too here.

Just a wee bit difference in population between the US, Italy,  Germany or France but nice try.

California is Aprox 40 million so half Germany and 20 million less than Italy

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rocketpj]

My kids have been having a hard time with social distancing, but we are all in on this.

DW is the boss of her workplace and they are all WAH until this passes.

I am not the boss of my dayjob, and work in an essential and high risk location (homeless shelter).  The work isn't going anywhere but a lot of my coworkers are going AWOL rather than come in, which leaves the rest of us in a hard place.  This is getting very shitty - not a population with good self-care (generally).

My business is more or less always social distancing (storage units) so I don't anticipate much change there.  I am waiting to see just how many people pay their rent this month though - things could get interesting if revenues crash.

My apartment rentals are looking pretty dicey.  The tenant of my 2 br apt, with whom I just set up a plan for repayment of his rent arrears, just got laid off from his work in a local bar.  I'm not a sociopath and I'm not going to turn him (and his kid) into the street, but this will get very interesting with my upcoming mortgage payments, particularly if things go on for a long time.

That said, our government (Canada) just announced some major help for tenants.  I may have to help him apply, we'll see.

[camwoodsum]

Does the government have the authority to order private businesses to close?

Yes, during a national emergency, the government essentially has the authority to do whatever it wants.

[katsiki]

Does the government have the authority to order private businesses to close?

Yes, during a national emergency, the government essentially has the authority to do whatever it wants.

Curious... in the US, this would be possible by each state, not the Federal govt, correct?

[Cassie]

My kids work in casinos and are for the shutdown even though it’s going to devastate them financially. Most likely they will have to move in with us.

[frugalnacho]

It seems like every place is doing the same thing.

"oh this is not a big deal, this won't be an issue, our number of cases is so low.  Ignore the epidemiologists.  Who are you going to trust, someone that studies this stuff for a living, or a politician? Continue to spend and live your life.  Treat to self!"
"Huh, we are getting some cases, but no need to panic, we are going to be just fine"
"wow, we are getting a lot of cases.  Still no need to panic, but let's try to not spread this, ok?"
"Oh damn, lots of cases exploding.  This is an emergency...kinda.  Reduce the number of patrons allowed in your establishment"
"scratch that, shut your establishment down.  No restaurants, no movie theaters, etc.  This is not a lockdown, and we aren't even considering a lockdown, we are fine"
"oh fuck, we need to lockdown guys"

California, Pennsylvania, and New York are now on lockdown.  As are numerous countries. 

Michigan shut down restaurants, bars, etc on March 16.  As of some articles that were posted just 2 hours ago the governor is still claiming that a shutdown of non-essential businesses and shelter in place orders similar to what other states have implemented is not even a possibility. 

Basically every place that gets infected with coronavirus:

[dandarc]

That's about right @frugalnacho. And quadruple the time frame for a large portion of individuals.

Governor here in Florida closed beaches finally. In 2 counties. Organized labor is going to have an uprising - going to take mass action by many, many individuals to actually slow this thing down.

[PDXTabs]

Is this the new replacement for March Madness?  if so, I'm putting all my money on the USA for global COVID-19 champion.

Is there a futures market yet?

[Hirondelle]

It seems like every place is doing the same thing.

"oh this is not a big deal, this won't be an issue, our number of cases is so low.  Ignore the epidemiologists.  Who are you going to trust, someone that studies this stuff for a living, or a politician? Continue to spend and live your life.  Treat to self!"
"Huh, we are getting some cases, but no need to panic, we are going to be just fine"
"wow, we are getting a lot of cases.  Still no need to panic, but let's try to not spread this, ok?"
"Oh damn, lots of cases exploding.  This is an emergency...kinda.  Reduce the number of patrons allowed in your establishment"
"scratch that, shut your establishment down.  No restaurants, no movie theaters, etc.  This is not a lockdown, and we aren't even considering a lockdown, we are fine"
"oh fuck, we need to lockdown guys"

It's kind of pathetic to be honest. I mean, how the hell do you see 10 nations before you make the same mistake, send your tourists happily there and yet expect no trouble when they return home and live their lives as they please?

Out of all countries, North Korea of all places was the first one to ban travel. But then they also didn't have much of an economy to save/protect in the first place..

[frugalnacho]

Florida just made this jump:

"Oh damn, lots of cases exploding.  This is an emergency...kinda.  Reduce the number of patrons allowed in your establishment"
"scratch that, shut your establishment down.  No restaurants, no movie theaters, etc.  This is not a lockdown, and we aren't even considering a lockdown, we are fine"

I'm sure that a full state lockdown would get eye rolls from florida leadership and they would tell you it's not even a possibility they are discussing at the moment.  I give it another week tops. 

I really don't get it.  I was unawares and skeptical as recently as a few weeks ago, but once you start listening to the experts and reading up on the situation it's so god damn obvious.  How can anyone truly believe florida is not about to have a massive outbreak that is going to strain their healthcare system?

[HPstache]

It seems like every place is doing the same thing.

"oh this is not a big deal, this won't be an issue, our number of cases is so low.  Ignore the epidemiologists.  Who are you going to trust, someone that studies this stuff for a living, or a politician? Continue to spend and live your life.  Treat to self!"
"Huh, we are getting some cases, but no need to panic, we are going to be just fine"
"wow, we are getting a lot of cases.  Still no need to panic, but let's try to not spread this, ok?"
"Oh damn, lots of cases exploding.  This is an emergency...kinda.  Reduce the number of patrons allowed in your establishment"
"scratch that, shut your establishment down.  No restaurants, no movie theaters, etc.  This is not a lockdown, and we aren't even considering a lockdown, we are fine"
"oh fuck, we need to lockdown guys"

So here's my question.  And please let it be known that I do not want to take any less precaution about COVID-19, and I hope we do get a full USA shutdown because it's some serious shit and people are dying and a lot more will.  But, are we going to closely monitor Influenza, H1N1, etc every year from here on out and shut everything down to prevent those 10's of thousands of deaths?  I know that there is a difference in "seriousness" but aren't deaths... deaths?  Epidemiologists must be thrilled that for once everyone is paying attention to these serious matters, but are we setting a new precedent or are people going to continue to ignore getting the yearly influenza vaccine and not give two shits about the 10's of millions of cases and 10's of thousands of deaths in the US alone that they are causing every year by not shutting down non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing?  Is this going to become a yearly tradition to shut everything down... or don't we care?

[lutorm]

So here's my question.  And please let it be known that I do not want to take any less precaution about COVID-19, and I hope we do get a full USA shutdown because it's some serious shit and people are dying and a lot more will.  But, are we going to closely monitor Influenza, H1N1, etc every year from here on out and shut everything down to prevent those 10's of thousands of deaths?  I know that there is a difference in "seriousness" but aren't deaths... deaths?  Epidemiologists must be thrilled that for once everyone is paying attention to these serious matters, but are we setting a new precedent or are people going to continue to ignore getting the yearly influenza vaccine and not give two shits about the 10's of millions of cases and 10's of thousands of deaths in the US alone that they are causing every year by not shutting down non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing?  Is this going to become a yearly tradition to shut everything down... or don't we care?

We don't close down roads and 30,000 people die in motor vehicle accidents every year. Roughly the same numbers die from gunshots and there's no general will to take measures against that either. That appears to be within the tolerance for what society is willing to accept.

The potential outcome of a business-as-usual response to covid-19 is far, far, above those numbers.

Personally, I'd like to know how many of those flu deaths would be saved if people actually got the damn flu vaccine.

[HPstache]

So here's my question.  And please let it be known that I do not want to take any less precaution about COVID-19, and I hope we do get a full USA shutdown because it's some serious shit and people are dying and a lot more will.  But, are we going to closely monitor Influenza, H1N1, etc every year from here on out and shut everything down to prevent those 10's of thousands of deaths?  I know that there is a difference in "seriousness" but aren't deaths... deaths?  Epidemiologists must be thrilled that for once everyone is paying attention to these serious matters, but are we setting a new precedent or are people going to continue to ignore getting the yearly influenza vaccine and not give two shits about the 10's of millions of cases and 10's of thousands of deaths in the US alone that they are causing every year by not shutting down non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing?  Is this going to become a yearly tradition to shut everything down... or don't we care?

We don't close down roads and 30,000 people die in motor vehicle accidents every year. Roughly the same numbers die from gunshots and there's no general will to take measures against that either. That appears to be within the tolerance for what society is willing to accept.

The potential outcome of a business-as-usual response to covid-19 is far, far, above those numbers.

Personally, I'd like to know how many of those flu deaths would be saved if people actually got the damn flu vaccine.

If it's the new normal to take viruses super seriously to the point where we shut down every year around the same time for a fiscal quarter or something... I'm suddenly feeling a bit bearish on economic growth and therefore on my FIRE plans with stocks.  And why wouldn't we take influenza and other viruses seriously from here on out, can we go back to ignoring the 10's of millions of cases and 10's of thousands of deaths?  Or will we look back in the future and think, "wow do you remember how much we overreacted in 2020", as we head into work in the heat of COVID-24 season after willingly choosing to not get the vaccine again just like the year before.

[PDXTabs]

v8rx7guy,

But eventually we'll have enough ventilators and nurses, right? Buy ventilator and hospital stocks.

[HPstache]

v8rx7guy,

But eventually we'll have enough ventilators and nurses, right? Buy ventilator and hospital stocks.

We already have 300% more ventilators than we think we do in a pinch:

https://hackaday.com/2020/03/19/saving-4-patients-with-just-1-ventilator/

Actually tested during the Vegas Shooting.

[runbikerun]

So here's my question.  And please let it be known that I do not want to take any less precaution about COVID-19, and I hope we do get a full USA shutdown because it's some serious shit and people are dying and a lot more will.  But, are we going to closely monitor Influenza, H1N1, etc every year from here on out and shut everything down to prevent those 10's of thousands of deaths?  I know that there is a difference in "seriousness" but aren't deaths... deaths?  Epidemiologists must be thrilled that for once everyone is paying attention to these serious matters, but are we setting a new precedent or are people going to continue to ignore getting the yearly influenza vaccine and not give two shits about the 10's of millions of cases and 10's of thousands of deaths in the US alone that they are causing every year by not shutting down non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing?  Is this going to become a yearly tradition to shut everything down... or don't we care?

There's a difference of scale in operation that's easy to miss. The biggest estimate I can find by far for Italy's annual flu deaths prior to this year indicated that about 68,000 deaths could be attributed over four years (please note that this number is by definition higher than the number of confirmed flu deaths). That averages to about 17,000 a year.

It has been 28 days since the first coronavirus death in Italy. It's also thirteen days since Lombardy went into full lockdown, and eleven days since the rest of Italy followed suit. In those 28 days, the virus has killed over four thousand people. The daily death toll is still rising; a thousand of those deaths were in the last two days.

For additional horror, you can do a rough calculation for how the coronavirus compares to the flu in Lombardy alone, since that's where the virus took its strongest hold. Lombardy accounts for about 70% of deaths, despite having one-sixth of the population. Assuming standard flu deaths are evenly distributed, that means Lombardy has about 2,830 flu deaths annually. That also means that the coronavirus either has already equalled or will tomorrow equal the entire annual flu death toll in Lombardy in four weeks, two of which were under lockdown. Right now, the coronavirus is killing more people in Lombardy than all other causes combined.

Again, Lombardy has been under full lockdown for thirteen days.

I'm not going to argue the point that we should do more about preventable deaths. But the coronavirus is not the same thing as the flu. It's not the same thing as anything the developed world has seen in centuries; going by what we've seen in Italy, losing 5-10% of population is within the range of reasonable possibilities if precautions are not taken. Being left with an essentially wrecked medical system is within the range of reasonable possibilities. Pestilential diseases resulting from the stockpiling of corpses which cannot be buried fast enough are within the range of reasonable possibilities. This is way, way, way beyond anything in living memory.

[HPstache]

So here's my question.  And please let it be known that I do not want to take any less precaution about COVID-19, and I hope we do get a full USA shutdown because it's some serious shit and people are dying and a lot more will.  But, are we going to closely monitor Influenza, H1N1, etc every year from here on out and shut everything down to prevent those 10's of thousands of deaths?  I know that there is a difference in "seriousness" but aren't deaths... deaths?  Epidemiologists must be thrilled that for once everyone is paying attention to these serious matters, but are we setting a new precedent or are people going to continue to ignore getting the yearly influenza vaccine and not give two shits about the 10's of millions of cases and 10's of thousands of deaths in the US alone that they are causing every year by not shutting down non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing?  Is this going to become a yearly tradition to shut everything down... or don't we care?

There's a difference of scale in operation that's easy to miss. The biggest estimate I can find by far for Italy's annual flu deaths prior to this year indicated that about 68,000 deaths could be attributed over four years (please note that this number is by definition higher than the number of confirmed flu deaths). That averages to about 17,000 a year.

It has been 28 days since the first coronavirus death in Italy. It's also thirteen days since Lombardy went into full lockdown, and eleven days since the rest of Italy followed suit. In those 28 days, the virus has killed over four thousand people. The daily death toll is still rising; a thousand of those deaths were in the last two days.

For additional horror, you can do a rough calculation for how the coronavirus compares to the flu in Lombardy alone, since that's where the virus took its strongest hold. Lombardy accounts for about 70% of deaths, despite having one-sixth of the population. Assuming standard flu deaths are evenly distributed, that means Lombardy has about 2,830 flu deaths annually. That also means that the coronavirus either has already equalled or will tomorrow equal the entire annual flu death toll in Lombardy in four weeks, two of which were under lockdown. Right now, the coronavirus is killing more people in Lombardy than all other causes combined.

Again, Lombardy has been under full lockdown for thirteen days.

I'm not going to argue the point that we should do more about preventable deaths. But the coronavirus is not the same thing as the flu. It's not the same thing as anything the developed world has seen in centuries; going by what we've seen in Italy, losing 5-10% of population is within the range of reasonable possibilities if precautions are not taken. Being left with an essentially wrecked medical system is within the range of reasonable possibilities. Pestilential diseases resulting from the stockpiling of corpses which cannot be buried fast enough are within the range of reasonable possibilities. This is way, way, way beyond anything in living memory.

I get it.  I really do, I assure you I get it and I am freaked out like most people.  I've got a son with asthma and 3 grandparents over 80... I get it.  What I don't get is where we are theoretically going to draw the line in the future or if this is the new normal.