Author Topic: Pension Question  (Read 4427 times)

imryanbingham

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Pension Question
« on: January 25, 2015, 09:50:31 PM »
Just found the site and honestly wish I had discovered this about five years ago. The mmm way absolutely resonates with me and just makes so much sense. I find myself fired up and ready to dig myself out of the hole that I have created over the last several years and start working towards FI.

I do have a question though as it relates to pensions and retiring early. I am a state worker with a locked in pension, as long as I work until I am 50. Each year beyond 50, the pension gets better. Essentially at age 50 I would receive about 42% of my single best year salary. At the moment that would translate to a little over $2600 a month. If I wait until I am 55, I would receive 66% or roughly $4100 a month. Full health benefits for life also kick in at 50. So obviously it is in my best interest to stay until at least 50. So the question is, am I crazy for really looking at leaving at 50 and leaving a lot of guaranteed money on the table? I am 40 right now and if I kick some butt over the next 10 years, I think I could be debt free and have around 300K put away. I do really think I could live off just the $2600 a month at that point and just let the investments grow. It just all seems so crazy though as I was one of those people that believed all the myths about happiness being just a purchase away. I've finally seen the light but it's still taking a while for it all to sink in. The frugal lifestyle really makes a lot of sense to me and I am quickly moving in that direction.

Any advice or feedback is greatly appreciated.

MDM

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2015, 10:11:00 PM »
A lot can happen in 10 years.  Good to know, however, that you have that option.  Meanwhile, use all the tax-advantaged investment opportunities available to you.

It wasn't clear, so I'm guessing the $2600 is in today's dollars.  In 10 years you would need (assuming 3% inflation) $3500/mo, and that will continue to increase every year.  Although, your salary may well increase between now and then so 42% of your best year would be >$2600/mo if so.

Will the pension also increase with inflation or is it fixed for life once you start taking it?


phillyvalue

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2015, 10:12:48 PM »
Obviously the decision comes down to qualitative factors more than anything, so only you can make the choice. But I think financially it's worth thinking about how working to 55 doesn't necessarily mean you get more value out of your pension. You will be receiving those benefits for five fewer years and pushing them out into the future; depending on your assumptions about how long you'll live and your personal discount rate (how much do you value consumption today vs tomorrow), retiring at 50 could actually lead to a more valuable income stream, or the difference could be pretty much a wash. For example (I'm assuming your pension is not inflation adjusted over time, and also that your salary at age 50 and 55 are the same), if you assume you live to 80 and you use an 8% discount rate, I calculate the value of your pension (I'm using the present value of the future pension payments as of when you are 50 years old) if you retire at 50 at ~$379K, and the value of your pension if you retire at 55 as $386K. Live to 100 and use a 5% discount rate, and the values become $598K and $719K, respectively. Personally, if I were 50 years old, I'd probably use a pretty high rate in discounting future consumption (8% even may be too low), so I'd actually consider the two to be close to a wash or even put the first scenario ahead. Depending on the state you are in, I'd also think a bit about whether I really trust it to be able to make the pension payments it has promised everyone 30-40 years from now.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2015, 10:14:51 PM by phillyvalue »

imryanbingham

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2015, 10:19:30 PM »
A lot can happen in 10 years.  Good to know, however, that you have that option.  Meanwhile, use all the tax-advantaged investment opportunities available to you.

It wasn't clear, so I'm guessing the $2600 is in today's dollars.  In 10 years you would need (assuming 3% inflation) $3500/mo, and that will continue to increase every year.  Although, your salary may well increase between now and then so 42% of your best year would be >$2600/mo if so.

Will the pension also increase with inflation or is it fixed for life once you start taking it?

Thanks for the reply. To answer your questions, the $2600 would be in today's dollars. Their is typically a 2% COLA built in although I do think it might be tied in to inflation so I need to check on that. Also I do think that my final compensation will increase at least a few more times as I have some upward mobility and we do receive occasional across the board raises. Excellent point about the tax-advantaged investments. I plan to start maxing those out as soon as I clear the debt out.

imryanbingham

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2015, 10:27:09 PM »
Obviously the decision comes down to qualitative factors more than anything, so only you can make the choice. But I think financially it's worth thinking about how working to 55 doesn't necessarily mean you get more value out of your pension. You will be receiving those benefits for five fewer years and pushing them out into the future; depending on your assumptions about how long you'll live and your personal discount rate (how much do you value consumption today vs tomorrow), retiring at 50 could actually lead to a more valuable income stream, or the difference could be pretty much a wash. For example (I'm assuming your pension is not inflation adjusted over time, and also that your salary at age 50 and 55 are the same), if you assume you live to 80 and you use an 8% discount rate, I calculate the value of your pension (I'm using the present value of the future pension payments as of when you are 50 years old) if you retire at 50 at ~$379K, and the value of your pension if you retire at 55 as $386K. Live to 100 and use a 5% discount rate, and the values become $598K and $719K, respectively. Personally, if I were 50 years old, I'd probably use a pretty high rate in discounting future consumption (8% even may be too low), so I'd actually consider the two to be close to a wash or even put the first scenario ahead. Depending on the state you are in, I'd also think a bit about whether I really trust it to be able to make the pension payments it has promised everyone 30-40 years from now.

Thank you for your response. This is exactly why I am here, as the points you have made have really got me thinking. Sometimes I get caught up in the pure dollars and cents aspects of things but you are absolutely right. There is a value on freeing up my time to pursue things that I would like to do. It would be a great benefit to start that at 50, actually something I never really thought was possible up until a few days ago. The pension is adjusted for inflation, to a degree. It's California so I am fairly certain it will be here for a while, as Calpers is an absolute beast. I would like to plan as if it might go away someday though. That way if it around forever, it's just a bonus. The numbers you provided are fascinating and have exposed a path I wasn't even really looking at.

Again thank you. You've given me a lot to think about, in a good way.

phillyvalue

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2015, 10:40:36 PM »
If you are able to save $300K by age 50, you can also add 4-5% of that amount to the amount you could spend each year. I think in this case 5% is appropriate because you aren't retiring extremely early and you have the pension to fall back on in case your investments didn't last your entire life. That brings you up to ~$3900/mo, which is still considerably below your current income level, but more than enough for a MMM way of life, particularly if you have a house paid off.

Davids

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2015, 01:16:19 PM »
If you have a paid off house then hell yeah your should retire at 50 given your scenario.

Another Reader

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2015, 01:45:29 PM »
The good news is that CalPERS is likely actually to pay you your pension, unlike some of the more poorly funded systems.  The bad news is that the thieves in Sacramento are trying to chip away at what you will get, both in pension and medical benefits.  Keep a close eye on what they are doing as you ride out the next 10 years.

My guess is you have a 457 plan.  These plans are great for early retirees.  They are not qualified plans, so there is no penalty for taking distributions before age 59.5.  If you can sock away a good percentage of your salary in the 457 plan, you may be able to defer the pension when you separate from employment and use this money for your expenses instead.  That will allow the pension amount to grow for a few years.  Or you can supplement the pension with this money.  In your shoes, I would get the details from your HR people and sign up ASAP.  IIRC, State of California employees pay into Social Security, so you will also collect Social Security at some point.  You can create a nice multi-source retirement income if you take advantage of all the savings vehicles available to you. 

You can cover a lot of ground in 10 years with a high savings rate.  Go for it!

spruce

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2015, 02:29:57 PM »
Clarification question - do you have to work until you're 50 to qualify for those disbursement amounts or is it just that you can't start taking disbursements until age 50 or 55 (assuming you're vested)?  Because you may be able to retire sooner than 50/55 (assuming you're vested and can swing it financially), and live off of other savings until you start drawing on your pension.

mustachianteacher

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2015, 05:09:42 PM »
We're in a similar situation and also in CA. I could get out at age 52 (spouse would be 55) with a pension payment that would probably just barely cover basic living expenses. Or, for every year I wait, the monthly payment rises exponentially until it maxes out at 62.

This is what went into our decision:

1. Paying off the house reduces monthly expenses, which means we need less income every month. The sooner it's paid off, the sooner we can retire.

2. We can use our own savings to finance those early years. Say we retire at 52 & 55 with that relatively low payment. If we defer taking the payment and instead fund those first 5 years out of our own savings, we can still reap the higher benefit payment because we'll be older when the pension starts paying. Sure, we'd miss out on any potential raises or COL adjustments in those 5 years, but raises and COLAs are rare around here. Right now, for example, I'm still being paid what I was in 2007.

3. Or, we could retire at 52/55, start payments immediately, and then use our own savings to raise our own income a little as necessary. I like this plan a little better because our own savings don't get depleted so much in those first 5 years, and we only have to take money as needed, so we have more flexibility.

We haven't decided yet because we have a child to put through college first, and I'm not yet sure how that will affect our savings. With 10+ years to go for us, there are still too many variables to make a solid decision.

Cassie

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2015, 05:19:15 PM »
When you reach age 50 you will know if you want to continue to work or not.  Also every year past 50 will increase your pension so it is not a choice between 50 & 55 but a choice between  50, 51, 52, etc.  Trust me you will know-I was going to wait until 60 & then went at 58.

imryanbingham

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2015, 07:50:57 PM »
Clarification question - do you have to work until you're 50 to qualify for those disbursement amounts or is it just that you can't start taking disbursements until age 50 or 55 (assuming you're vested)?  Because you may be able to retire sooner than 50/55 (assuming you're vested and can swing it financially), and live off of other savings until you start drawing on your pension.

I have to wait until at least 50. Also that's when the medical locks in, although it does sound like the cost of medical may be going up. The work is enjoyable so I wouldn't mind staying around for a while. I think what's so great about the way of the mustache is that once I reach 50, things will be so much better if I don't have to stay there. I can work but know that I can walk away at any time. I think that will be well worth the effort over the next ten years.

imryanbingham

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Re: Pension Question
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2015, 07:54:43 PM »
When you reach age 50 you will know if you want to continue to work or not.  Also every year past 50 will increase your pension so it is not a choice between 50 & 55 but a choice between  50, 51, 52, etc.  Trust me you will know-I was going to wait until 60 & then went at 58.

You make an excellent point. I think the best course of action is to aggressively save as if it's going to be 50 or 52, even if it ends up being later. Better to have the money and not need it then the other way around.

 

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