Author Topic: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings  (Read 8264 times)

achvfi

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Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« on: March 17, 2020, 09:43:05 AM »
With all the uncertainty going on, it feels like there will be mass layoffs in various sectors of the economy.

Following was an old thread on Layoff discussion.

Tell us stories about when their were layoffs at your workplace, especially if you were among the survivors.  How was it handled?  Was it a surprise?  How did people manage it, especially if they were more Mustachian or maybe not so much?  Did productivity go to hell?

I work at a fortune 500 company, with relatively stable revenues in good times and bad. Still I heard that all new expenses are frozen and the job openings are being frozen as well. If the slowdown continues for months I have a feeling that substantial layoffs are in the works.

Its time to beef up the emergency funds and other contingent plans. It also looks like ideas like geoarbitrage will be difficult to implement with a pandemic going around the world.

While its not the time to change your plans significantly, Its a time for reality check on your plans.

Also do you hear any rumblings about layoffs in your organization? What is your plan if you get layoff?
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 09:48:58 AM by achvfi »

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2020, 09:49:34 AM »
Yes there are rumblings.  Not from workers, but from top management.  I don't know what my plan is.  At this point it's completely unrealistic to relocate or even find another job locally.  I am either staying employed where I am, or I'm going to be one of the casualties and get laid off and have to ride out the depression like everyone else.  Hopefully government assistance will step up to help. 

My mortgage is paid off so that's a good thing.  I think we likely need to slash our spending to the bone to try and ride this out.  It will be necessary to survive this, or if I stay employed and the market recovers in a reasonable period these actions will launch us into FIRE.

mwulff

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2020, 09:58:22 AM »
I work in the public sector so I am home on 14 days leave with pay. But my work can be done 100% remotely and my team is very good at it.

I also have a part-time job in the healthcare sector, and no one is getting laid off there.

Just very lucky I guess. But I know some people who will start to feel the pain.

Here it is actually a good thing to live well below ones means.

martyconlonontherun

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2020, 10:09:49 AM »
I'm in internal audit with a manufacturer. (Public company). My department is slim so I think I am at low risk unless they totally outsource our department which I can't imagine being cheaper.

Will be interesting since our company is already closing plants and have moved them to Mexico the past few years. Seems like every department was understaffed to begin with and now they just won't hire replacements? Maybe I am underestimating how big of an impact this will have. I just feel for my company it would be an all or nothing thing.

Hirondelle

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2020, 11:58:42 AM »
I work in a hospital/university and have a fixed contract so I'm safe.

However, I already heard of one person getting laid off who worked in earthquake damange management (bc government subsidies were stopped abruptly) and several people laid off in the hotel cleaning sector (mostly temp workers for now).

This is Europe btw. We seem to be a few days ahead of the US regarding both patients and measures.

achvfi

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2020, 12:16:29 PM »
My mortgage is paid off so that's a good thing.  I think we likely need to slash our spending to the bone to try and ride this out.  It will be necessary to survive this, or if I stay employed and the market recovers in a reasonable period these actions will launch us into FIRE.

Paid off mortgage and low expenses. Awesome combo!
My plan is opposite. I am refinancing my mortgage with lower rates now, reducing monthly payment by 40%. It will help stretch cushion much farther incase of income loss.

I also have a part-time job in the healthcare sector, and no one is getting laid off there.
Sounds like for most part healthcare folks are safe. But interestingly. I am hearing that healthcare departments are shifting resources and some "non-essesntial" departments have to use leaves accumulated or unpaid leave.

MayDay

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2020, 01:36:46 PM »
One of my employees had a family member laid off. He did set building for productions. Since theaters are all closed for awhile....   He is planning to look for a general job at a grocery store, Amazon, or hospital I believe.

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2020, 01:51:56 PM »
For the last year or two, airlines have been nearly desperate for pilots.  As a military aviation family, so many people we know had this as their plan.  And until a month ago, they were continuing to hiring people with experience very quickly.  We have several friends who have just gotten out, or are getting out in the next few weeks and suddenly, the airlines have quit all new hires.  Those friends are in a really tough spot as what was once a sure thing is suddenly and very quickly gone.   Another friend, who flies for a major airline, has said that they are offering to pay pilots to stay home and not fly for now, but I suspect that can't last very long.  They are heavily unionized so how they cut back will be interesting (perhaps furloughs instead of lay offs) but it seems very likely that something is coming. 

I just applied for a federal job.  I don't need it.  I wasn't even 100% sure I wanted it, but it was a perfect fit with good pay so I applied.  I haven't seen anything that says federal hiring is frozen (unless it involves relocation), but I'm not holding my breath. 

Junco

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2020, 02:03:08 PM »
My company does field-work based contract work for utility companies throughout the US, we visit homes and business for various inspections and home/business improvement projects. Many of the utilities have suspended all operations for field work until at least April. Most of our field employees have to start using PTO or take unpaid time for the time being.

I was lucky to have narrowly escaped suspension of my work because I said "yes" to work on a new remote-based project by a different client just two weeks ago.... talk about random luck/good karma!

I also have a sports-related side hustle that was bringing in $750-$1000 a month, but now with most sporting events being cancelled there is a good chance my side hustle is going to lose some income.

Hopefully between my side hustle and new project at work, I'll be okay. I have a 50-60% savings rate right now so have some wiggle room. Will start saving cash from my paycheck and stop contributions to taxable accounts for the time being (will continue my 401k contributions)
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 02:06:02 PM by Junco »

JetBlast

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2020, 03:37:54 PM »
There's tons of rumbling in the airline business right now, but nothing concrete about furloughs for pilots.  Furlough is really expense as it causes a lot of retraining as pilots shift from one plane to another or from captain to first officer, and airlines don't want to get caught short when demand rebounds.  So far it's all short term measures, with leaves of absence being offered (thought they're always a possibility), schedules reduced to contractual minimums to spread the flying around to as many as possible, and reduced pay to just sit at home for a month being considered.

Milizard

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2020, 05:00:21 PM »
I work for a utility, so none. There was a temp covering for a couple people in customer service out on medical leave that is done, I suspect. The hiring process for summer interns is on pause, but my organization is flush with cash due to a favorable budgeting variance on inputs.  I'm not classified as "essential", but my job still really needs to be done, according to my director, and I expect to have to work more hours than I prefer to while my kids are home from school--more hours than I have been. Working from home is simply going to take longer until I work out the kinks.

I feel a little guilty, because my family is going to come out ahead over this between money saved on childcare and commuting costs, not to mention all the cash I have ready to buy when the market is right.  We also are trying to hunker down as much as possible, so eating out costs as well.  I really would like to support local restaurants, but right now believe we should contribute to flattening the curve as much as we can.

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2020, 05:39:18 PM »
Nothing in my immediate world. Internal audit for car insurance company. They're trying to figure out how to adjust to this, since they're kinda dumb and didn't have a plan for anything in place. However, I'm not happy there, and the underlying reasons aren't going to get better so I'm just starting a job search. Great timing, huh?

I could pretty easily move back to a previous company, they want me back, I'd love to go back, but I would have to do non-preferred work in order to avoid the individual who was the reason I left. And it would likely be a slight pay cut.

However, many of my neighbors are impacted, or would be impacted if their offices shut down. So far, I haven't heard that anyone is suffering, and hoping that it stays that way.

moneypitfeeder

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2020, 05:50:51 PM »
@Villanelle federal hiring is not frozen (as of yet, to my knowledge). It may be site-specific. Word from my chain is hiring will continue as normal for now (in PA, DoD). Good luck!

Gone_Hiking

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2020, 07:27:26 PM »
I'm looking for a project manager job in IT and, so far, the number of job openings I see have not decreased. I've got a couple of interviews scheduled within a week and they were not cancelled.  The only change this week involved changing in-person interviews to online or phone interviews.  DH believes that his company will not lay off anyone.  The company makes complex material analysis tools.  First quarter sales have sucked because several customers of the company are in China, but the company thinks that second quarter will be better.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2020, 09:03:17 PM »
Not me but a good friend was laid off yesterday.  She worked at a small private law firm.
She's not happy to have to be job-hunting in this environment and I don't blame her. 

Fish Sweet

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2020, 10:35:24 PM »
Last week, I reached out to a few former coworkers to wish them well during all of this craziness.  And found out that THAT SAME DAY, they had laid off about 20% of the company, everyone from the admins to professionals to C-suite folks.  It wasn't a big company, but it wasn't like some itsy bitsy two person shop either.  It was really shocking to me-- I'd just quit about a month ago, so I probably would have been on the chopping block too.

I follow a lot of artists on social media, and a lot of the ones who hold down retail and/or retail adjacent day jobs are posting about lay offs affecting themselves or family members and asking people to check out their art and personal stores.  Sad and scary for folks who already aren't making much.

afterthedark

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2020, 02:26:21 AM »
Snip...

I really would like to support local restaurants, but right now believe we should contribute to flattening the curve as much as we can.

The local independent cafe here is offering vouchers, so you buy them now giving them money to keep afloat and then use them when we can all start getting out more. Some places are also doing takeout or delivery. It might be worth checking their websites/social media in case there are still ways to support them.

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2020, 06:43:22 AM »
Snip...

I really would like to support local restaurants, but right now believe we should contribute to flattening the curve as much as we can.

The local independent cafe here is offering vouchers, so you buy them now giving them money to keep afloat and then use them when we can all start getting out more. Some places are also doing takeout or delivery. It might be worth checking their websites/social media in case there are still ways to support them.

That seems risky.  What if they go out of business?  I think A LOT of places are going to go out of business.  Also I would think most people would be concerned about getting food and supplies now while they have money and employment rather than buying vouchers for future food.  I mean if the business is still afloat later when you want food you could just use the cash you saved from not buying a voucher to just buy the food. 

achvfi

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #18 on: March 18, 2020, 07:25:59 AM »
Couple of friends who work on contract basis in IT got notice for end of contract in two weeks. Seems like contract positions are first to go.

CodingHare

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #19 on: March 18, 2020, 12:25:36 PM »
Doing ok so far.  I work at a software startup that has financing enough to last a few years in a field that won't be impacted heavily by Corona.  Husband works for a software consulting company--it seems unlikely that they would lay him off.  Neither of our companies have announced layoffs yet.

But the fear is real since I assume the job market will be squeezed with companies freezing hiring to lower their expenditures.  Just going to focus on lowering our expenses.  If neither of us lose our jobs we're hoping to be able to buy a house in a few months (especially if the housing market is effected.)

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2020, 12:29:51 PM »
Snip...

I really would like to support local restaurants, but right now believe we should contribute to flattening the curve as much as we can.

The local independent cafe here is offering vouchers, so you buy them now giving them money to keep afloat and then use them when we can all start getting out more. Some places are also doing takeout or delivery. It might be worth checking their websites/social media in case there are still ways to support them.

That seems risky.  What if they go out of business?  I think A LOT of places are going to go out of business.  Also I would think most people would be concerned about getting food and supplies now while they have money and employment rather than buying vouchers for future food.  I mean if the business is still afloat later when you want food you could just use the cash you saved from not buying a voucher to just buy the food.

In my area, carryout and delivery have exploded in the last couple days.

Zikoris

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2020, 01:57:24 PM »
I work in bankruptcy and am a lot more concerned about being buried alive under all the new filings than I am about getting laid off. The last few months have been absolutely INSANE in this industry. Everyone and their brother is going bankrupt now, seriously. And it's only going to increase given the situation.

Regarding layoffs in general, we don't really do anything to prepare. We have low expenses and lots of money.

Free Spirit

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2020, 02:34:49 PM »
Restaurant worker chiming in. Our place was committed to staying open until today. Coworker works part time for another company that just had an employee test positive. Said coworker also had been coming in to work with bronchitis for the past week, probably exposing everyone. So, we are finally shut down for at least 2 weeks and are waiting for test results from various people with symptoms. Might wanna think twice before ordering that to-go plate.

Fire2025

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2020, 02:37:55 PM »
I work in the entertainment industry.  Productions have been shut down all over and people have been laid off, myself included. 

On our production alone about 750 people I were laid off late Friday afternoon, effective by end of day.  I'll be fine but some of my co-workers were very nervous. There will also be a bunch of local businesses, servicing the production, that will also be hit by this.

Luckily, our industry typically does well during economic down turns, so once the virus reaches its peak and begins to trend down, we should be able to get back to work.  In the mean time a lot of people will be hit hard, LA is not a cheap place to shelter at home.

Hang in there everyone, "This too shall pass" - Persian Sufi Adage


HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2020, 03:20:21 PM »
I work for myself, marketing agency.  We are lean FI already so I have no concerns.  I've always kept about 2 yrs of emergency cash + what I have in our business account liquid, so we have quite a bit of liquid funds.  My overall asset allocation is ~ 70/30 stocks to cash or cash equivalent.  The market will likely impact marketing spend so I expect to see some decline, in fact we're already seeing it to a certain extent.  There is more traffic available but the cpc rates are also lower, so its a different demand/price ratio.  Sometimes when cpc's are low I can still earn more as I can do more volume even with the reduced rates since there is more inventory.  I got into the internet marketing business in 2008 when we had the mortgage crisis.  The internet marketing space really took off during the great recession, so it should be interesting to see if it is also insulated during this downturn.

Right now I'm looking forward to the pending housing crash, as we should be able to finally buy into our local market (coastal socal).  I've put aside buying until we are Fat Fire but this may be the opportunity this year.  I have a friend in real estate -- he basically confirms what I thought is happening.  Purchase contracts are already being cancelled in escrow.  Banks are tightening lending.  I think we'll see more listings as people fear job loss.  So it won't be long until we have a glut of inventory with much fewer buyers, and hence prices will crash down.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 03:29:03 PM by HBFIRE »

achvfi

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #25 on: March 19, 2020, 07:51:40 AM »
I work in the entertainment industry.  Productions have been shut down all over and people have been laid off, myself included. 

On our production alone about 750 people I were laid off late Friday afternoon, effective by end of day.  I'll be fine but some of my co-workers were very nervous. There will also be a bunch of local businesses, servicing the production, that will also be hit by this.

Luckily, our industry typically does well during economic down turns, so once the virus reaches its peak and begins to trend down, we should be able to get back to work.  In the mean time a lot of people will be hit hard, LA is not a cheap place to shelter at home.

Hang in there everyone, "This too shall pass" - Persian Sufi Adage

Great attitude. Inspiring!

Sorry about the situation @Fire2025. I wish you all the best.

rantk81

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2020, 08:03:47 AM »
I work in an industry that is being directly impacted by COVID-19, and I will be pretty shocked if I am not let go in the next couple months.

I have about one year of expenses in emergency cash, before I'd have to start selling off investments (at depressed prices!)

I'm questioning whether that is enough.

Edit to add:

I think this situation highlights the major problem with the primary argument against OMY's of: "I can always return to work for a while if necessary."

Well, when shit hits the fan, it all happens at once.  Your stocks go down.  You can't sell il-liquid assets like real-estate. Everyone is in a liquidity crunch.  You try to ride it out by using the cash savings you have available.  And yes, you can't get a job, because nobody is hiring.  My employer was interviewing potential new hires just a couple weeks ago!  Now, all of those openings are closed, and big layoffs are on the horizon.  There will be millions of people searching for a new job at the same time, with no new jobs available.  This can take a LONG time to recover -- even after the virus pandemic passes.

« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 08:29:51 AM by rantk81 »

Legsofsteel

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2020, 08:58:10 AM »
Double checked with my manager yesterday, and they said the business is in a strong position. No guarantees, but the aim is to keep everyone. During the last recession they did say no one was made redundant, but they also didn't hire anyone new. So I should be safe for a while hopefully.

There are also some processes I can do from home, which could help.

afterthedark

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2020, 10:32:41 AM »
Snip...

I really would like to support local restaurants, but right now believe we should contribute to flattening the curve as much as we can.

The local independent cafe here is offering vouchers, so you buy them now giving them money to keep afloat and then use them when we can all start getting out more. Some places are also doing takeout or delivery. It might be worth checking their websites/social media in case there are still ways to support them.

That seems risky.  What if they go out of business?  I think A LOT of places are going to go out of business.  Also I would think most people would be concerned about getting food and supplies now while they have money and employment rather than buying vouchers for future food.  I mean if the business is still afloat later when you want food you could just use the cash you saved from not buying a voucher to just buy the food.

I would certainly hope people who were getting vouchers had their finances in order and don’t spend more than they can afford to lose. I imagine the people are doing this to show support for their valued local business than really thinking their £20 is going to stop them going bankrupt. There are government measures to help with that although I’m not saying no businesses are going to fold in the UK.

I’ve also seen people discussing whether to keep paying for child care despite not using it because they are now self isolating for the foreseeable future. Again that depends on people being able to afford to do so, but it seems sensible when good childcare is as rare as hens teeth.

And theatres who have closed are asking customers to only request refunds if they have to and otherwise see it as a donation to keep the theatre afloat.

KarefulKactus15

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2020, 11:13:37 AM »
My company has never had a lay off.

Hopefully that trend continues.


Kronsey

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2020, 11:23:54 AM »
I'm a small biz accountant. I have (had) around 30 monthly clients. 4 have fired me and will be out of business by end of next week. Probably another 10 or so are in trouble. Wide range... Some very small and some good sized operations.

I participate in some Facebook groups for accountants. Most serve small businesses. This is going to get much uglier before it gets better I'm afraid. Many are predicting they will lose half of their client base. Not all of those will close down completely (some just fire their accountant to save costs), but many will.

I don't think it is unreasonable to think 10-25% of the small businesses in America could fold in the next few months.

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2020, 01:05:53 PM »
Friend's brother in law was just laid off. 

I'm surprised at how quickly it happened. 

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2020, 01:50:54 PM »
I work for myself, marketing agency.  We are lean FI already so I have no concerns.  I've always kept about 2 yrs of emergency cash + what I have in our business account liquid, so we have quite a bit of liquid funds.  My overall asset allocation is ~ 70/30 stocks to cash or cash equivalent.  The market will likely impact marketing spend so I expect to see some decline, in fact we're already seeing it to a certain extent.  There is more traffic available but the cpc rates are also lower, so its a different demand/price ratio.  Sometimes when cpc's are low I can still earn more as I can do more volume even with the reduced rates since there is more inventory.  I got into the internet marketing business in 2008 when we had the mortgage crisis.  The internet marketing space really took off during the great recession, so it should be interesting to see if it is also insulated during this downturn.

Right now I'm looking forward to the pending housing crash, as we should be able to finally buy into our local market (coastal socal).  I've put aside buying until we are Fat Fire but this may be the opportunity this year.  I have a friend in real estate -- he basically confirms what I thought is happening.  Purchase contracts are already being cancelled in escrow.  Banks are tightening lending.  I think we'll see more listings as people fear job loss.  So it won't be long until we have a glut of inventory with much fewer buyers, and hence prices will crash down.
We are also FI...but I don't think you understand the gravity of the situation.

As of right now, being FI is meaningless.  Having cash to spend is useless if there is nothing available to buy, and your mortality risk goes up 50% due to an overwhelmed medical system.

I take zero comfort in being FI at this stage.  That frame of reference is thrown out the window in such a strange situation.

We have to deal with the economic fallout later, but we have to focus on keeping critical infrastructure up, make available essential living supplies to people, and take care of this crisis in the most urgent matter possible from a medical perspective.

The world as we knew it is gone, at least for a little while.  I am under no illusion that having extra cash in the bank is going to mean squat when the paradigm is how we keep food shortages and medical shortages at bay.

bluebelle

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2020, 01:55:59 PM »
My job is 100% virtual, so social distancing hasn't impacted me too much - other than my weekly grocery shop being impacted due to hoarders.   

But I expect there to be big downstream impact.   I don't see my company making its sales numbers this year because its customers aren't going to make theirs.   We're an IT company with a very broad spectrum of customers.   Don't see any of the airlines buying too much this year!

Will I personally get laid off?  I very much doubt it, I'm damn good at what I do, and there aren't many people who can do what I do.....but I expect that there will be lay offs within 6 months.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2020, 02:25:33 PM »

As of right now, being FI is meaningless.  Having cash to spend is useless if there is nothing available to buy, and your mortality risk goes up 50% due to an overwhelmed medical system.


Eh, I disagree with this strongly.  Times like this are the most important to be FI just to cover your basic living costs and not be worried about job loss.  That alone reduces massive amounts of stress which is important for keeping your immune system in good shape.  Sure, mortality rate is higher right now, but it's important to maintain perspective -- overall mortality rate if you are healthy is still relatively insignificant.  Let's keep perspective here, it's important.  Control what you can and don't stress about the uncontrollables.   This is a time to be stoic.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 02:27:21 PM by HBFIRE »

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #35 on: March 19, 2020, 02:27:30 PM »

As of right now, being FI is meaningless.  Having cash to spend is useless if there is nothing available to buy, and your mortality risk goes up 50% due to an overwhelmed medical system.


Eh, I disagree with this strongly.  Times like this are the most important to be FI just to cover your basic living costs and not be worried about job loss.  That alone reduces massive amounts of stress which is important for keeping your immune system in good shape.  Sure, mortality rate is higher right now but it's important to maintain perspective -- overall mortality rate if you are healthy is still relatively insignificant.  Let's keep perspective here, it's important.
Just as I figured, someone who doesn't understand the precipice of this new world paradigm we are in.  Perhaps this will help frame it:  https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/destroying-the-ignorance-and-myths-on-the-coronavirus/

Quote
Of course the economy has collapsed. But no one cares. Those who will still be there after the crisis, will worry about it.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2020, 02:33:09 PM »
relax, its not the end of the world.  This too shall pass.  People get very hyperbolic.

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2020, 02:36:05 PM »
relax, its not the end of the world.  This too shall pass.  People get very hyperbolic.
Of course it's going to pass. At what cost?

What if you were told ahead of time you wouldn't survive the end of this year?  Would that change it for you?

People are not getting hyperbolic enough, that is the god damn problem.

And for many many people, it is the end of the world for them, or going to be the end of the world for them.  Their loved ones will die, jobs lost forever, while we dither on our fingers and worry about the wrong things.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 02:38:21 PM by nemesis »

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2020, 02:42:23 PM »
And by the way, this isn't exponential growth as you claim in that thread, its a bayesian curve -- that is very different than exponential growth.  The panic is not helpful.  Take the measures that you are able to to reduce risk.  That is all you can do.  Being scared and fretting in fear is not going to help.

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #39 on: March 19, 2020, 02:43:45 PM »
And by the way, this isn't exponential growth as you claim in that thread, its a bayesian curve -- that is very different than exponential growth.  The panic is not helpful.  Take the measures that you are able to to reduce risk.  That is all you can do.  Being scared and fretting in fear is not going to help.
Unfortunately, it's not being scared. It's being educated.  The world's most educated and knowledgeable people have been warning us for months about this.  Most people have been willingly ignorant of this and still don't understand the paradigm has changed.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #40 on: March 19, 2020, 02:44:12 PM »
]Unfortunately, it's not being scared. It's being educated.  The world's most educated people have been warning us for months about this.  Most people have been willingly ignorant of this and still don't understand the paradigm has changed.

If you were truly educated on this you wouldn't be citing it as exponential growth, sorry to say.

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #41 on: March 19, 2020, 02:45:02 PM »
]Unfortunately, it's not being scared. It's being educated.  The world's most educated people have been warning us for months about this.  Most people have been willingly ignorant of this and still don't understand the paradigm has changed.

If you were truly educated on this you wouldn't be citing it as exponential growth, sorry to say.
I'm not a mathematician.... so I used the wrong term to describe the terrifying growth. 

Does that change the facts of the matter at all? Sorry it doesn't. 

There are material errors and immaterial errors. My using the wrong term is a technical immaterial error.  People who think immaterial errors matter are the uneducated.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #42 on: March 19, 2020, 02:46:15 PM »
In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. “How are we to live in an atomic age?” I am tempted to reply: “Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age when raiders from Scandinavia might land and cut your throat any night; or indeed, as you are already living in an age of cancer, an age of syphilis, an age of paralysis, an age of air raids, an age of railway accidents, an age of motor accidents.”

In other words, do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented: and quite a high percentage of us were going to die in unpleasant ways. We had, indeed, one very great advantage over our ancestors—anesthetics; but we have that still. It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty.

This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things—praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts—not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds.

— C.S. Lewis, “On Living in an Atomic Age” (1948)

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #43 on: March 19, 2020, 02:49:00 PM »
So let's say this is as bad as the Spanish Flu, or black plaque.  Yes people lived through it.  No need for people to appreciate the magnitude of the situation then, and no need to act on it now, is my understanding of what you're saying.

Unfortunately, when bodies start stacking up waiting to be picked up / burned, nice quotes like those won't mean a damn thing.

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #44 on: March 19, 2020, 02:49:15 PM »

As of right now, being FI is meaningless.  Having cash to spend is useless if there is nothing available to buy, and your mortality risk goes up 50% due to an overwhelmed medical system.


Eh, I disagree with this strongly.  Times like this are the most important to be FI just to cover your basic living costs and not be worried about job loss.  That alone reduces massive amounts of stress which is important for keeping your immune system in good shape.  Sure, mortality rate is higher right now but it's important to maintain perspective -- overall mortality rate if you are healthy is still relatively insignificant.  Let's keep perspective here, it's important.
Just as I figured, someone who doesn't understand the precipice of this new world paradigm we are in.  Perhaps this will help frame it:  https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/destroying-the-ignorance-and-myths-on-the-coronavirus/

Quote
Of course the economy has collapsed. But no one cares. Those who will still be there after the crisis, will worry about it.

If being FI is meaningless then give me your nestegg in exchange for the secret to ensuring you don't get infected...... stay home and isolate yourself.

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #45 on: March 19, 2020, 02:51:20 PM »

If being FI is meaningless then give me your nestegg in exchange for the secret to ensuring you don't get infected...... stay home and isolate yourself.
Staying home is no guarantee you won't get infected.  People are still going out in the US.  People are not taking it seriously enough.

China shut people down in their homes for 6 weeks, before this got under control. They had to build several field hospitals in days to try to deal with this.  Who knows if their death count is anywhere near accurate.  This will not end well if we don't take draconian measures.

I'll be curious to revisit this thread a few months from now, to see your tone, and if you're even alive.

The studies based on facts, leading scientists and medical specialists are sounding the alarm.  The canary in the coal mine has started making noise.  Seems many still don't hear it.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 02:54:06 PM by nemesis »

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #46 on: March 19, 2020, 03:02:40 PM »
]Unfortunately, it's not being scared. It's being educated.  The world's most educated people have been warning us for months about this.  Most people have been willingly ignorant of this and still don't understand the paradigm has changed.

If you were truly educated on this you wouldn't be citing it as exponential growth, sorry to say.

I'm not sure what thread or what chart is being referenced here, but we are absolutely seeing exponential growth in the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of deaths per day.

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #47 on: March 19, 2020, 03:04:14 PM »

I'm not sure what thread or what chart is being referenced here, but we are absolutely seeing exponential growth in the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of deaths per day.

Exponential curves are much different than a bayesian bell curve which is what a virus causes.  The exponential rate decreases over time until cases are decreasing exponentially.

nemesis

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #48 on: March 19, 2020, 03:07:48 PM »

I'm not sure what thread or what chart is being referenced here, but we are absolutely seeing exponential growth in the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of deaths per day.

Exponential curves are much different than a bayesian bell curve which is what a virus causes.  The exponential rate decreases over time until cases are decreasing exponentially.
That doesn't sound like any explanation of exponential growth / curve to me. 

Here's what wikipedia says on exponential growth, and the chart shows the growth curve shooting up as time passes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself. Described as a function, a quantity undergoing exponential growth is an exponential function of time, that is, the variable representing time is the exponent (in contrast to other types of growth, such as quadratic growth).

And the media is using  the term exponential growth:  https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241332666.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/03/17/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/#6dc43e644e9b

as well as SETI:  https://www.seti.org/coronavirus-and-exponential-growth

In fact, this guy who is way smarter than me describes this exactly as exponential growth in this sobering video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY&feature=youtu.be  (which you clearly did not watch despite my plea in the other thread for people to watch).

It's extremely dangerous to spread misinformation, and it seems you've gone out of your way to tout yourself as an expert here and try to present something incorrect as factual.  That's going to to destroy your credibility especially on important topics like this.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 03:38:38 PM by nemesis »

MilesTeg

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Re: Coronavirus - Layoffs and rumblings
« Reply #49 on: March 19, 2020, 03:14:32 PM »

I'm not sure what thread or what chart is being referenced here, but we are absolutely seeing exponential growth in the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of deaths per day.

Exponential curves are much different than a bayesian bell curve which is what a virus causes.  The exponential rate decreases over time until cases are decreasing exponentially.

We will eventually see slowing of growth and then decay, but that does not change the fact that we are currently experiencing exponential growth and need to take measures to slow it as much as possible.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!