What am I missing? What's all the fuss about?
It depends on the model of markets that you use. If your model is "stocks return 7% above inflation, bonds are 1-2%, thus for FIRE use stocks", then yes, they kind of look a bit lame. Downright awful, in fact, if you want a return above inflation because the fixed rate is currently 0%!
Some folks stop there and YOLO it. That's not wrong, it's simply a choice.
It's a choice based on a variance-serving-as-risk model, however, not a risk-based model. While the variance needs to dominate (to get the overall return), in the second order, paying some attention to the underlying risks makes sense to me - otherwise, you can end up very concentrated in what LOOKS like diversified assets, but which are not really diversified. As a bond example, you may buy lots of various local sewer bonds as "safe" bonds, hedging against any one city having a problem, but if every single one of them is newish 30 to 50-year bond in a coastal community, you've just concentrated yourself into "rising ocean risk". As a stock example, if your international mutual funds/ETFs universally hedge all their currency risk, then even your international portfolio is bearing 100% US currency risk. Is that desired or an accident?
For me, I view it as a risk transfer exercise. The federal government takes on inflation risk in exchange for paying me (right now) a 0% fixed rate. I do take on a "my inflation deviates from CPI-U inflation" risk, but that's much smaller in variance than the overall inflation risk. Almost all other aspects (counterparty risk, etc.) are identical to other federal bonds, so this is a simple delta to evaluate.
Inflation is a funny thing - predicting it is basically impossible (people try, but if you evaluate their prediction record, they lose to a random walk). Then again, traditional federal bonds are effectively priced according to predicted inflation.
That means we should think in two pieces: predicted inflation and actual inflation.
Look at 5 different scenarios:
- Predicted inflation is high but actual inflation is low(er)
- Predicted inflation is high and actual inflation is high(er)
- Predicted inflation is low and actual inflation is low(er)
- Predicted inflation is low and actual inflation is high(er)
- Predicted inflation and actual inflation match (note: never happens)
If you look at these scenarios, the 3rd scenario is basically what most people under 35 have experienced in their entire working life. Anyone under 50 has arguably only experienced scenario 1 transitioning to scenario 3. That means the variance model above has worked really well, and frankly diversification beyond US stocks hasn't really been valuable. (This is partially true because scenarios 1 and 3 don't require a company to have strong pricing power, so it's been a long time since we've had pricing power determine winners and losers in the market)
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The net is the 5th scenario is no big deal - people raise fear about inflation but in reality you shouldn't be overly scared of inflation - you should be worried about
transitioning between the scenarios - because
it's the reset of expectations that's a problem! So it's the transition from where we are today to higher inflation that's painful - not high (and predicted) inflation by itself. (We simplify this as high inflation = bad, just like we simplify risk = variance, but knowing that's just a simplification can be important)
It's the transition into scenarios 2 and 4 ... or a stable presence of scenario 4 (transitory inflation, anyone?) ... where transferring inflation risk to the federal government is valuable. Considering that we have been in scenario 3 for some time (20 years?), does it make sense to hedge against a transition and if so, what's the most likely state? IMHO, state 1 will only be reached through state 2 or state 4 as many folks are anchored in low expectations and it will need to be proven otherwise. So the most likely transitions from today are into scenario 2 or scenario 4 - exactly where I-Bonds help...
Are bonds overall a small part of the portfolio since variance/return dominates? Absolutely. Is a block of my cash in I-bonds? Absolutely. Do I hold any other bonds? Only a small amount purchased in the '08 financial crisis.
Note: The above statements assume you're US-based. If not, the timing of the scenarios are almost certainly different and different rules apply.