Author Topic: Broke by 62, YES  (Read 69660 times)

Telecaster

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #150 on: November 19, 2015, 11:22:30 AM »
Sorry, meant ponzi scheme, typed pyramid. SS is by definition a ponzi scheme.

Oh please.

SS isn't even remotely close to any reasonable definition of a Ponzi scheme.  Not even the same zip code. 


Astro Camper

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #151 on: November 19, 2015, 12:30:33 PM »
When I mentioned Cancer, I wasn't talking about Chemo that Medicare pays for. The large Hospice places have oncologist on staff since more than 50% of patients are there because terminal cancer. The shit that my wife witnessed is absolutely sick. The on staff oncologist has other oncologist visiting offering experimental treatment which none are covered by anything. She saw soooo many people selling their homes to pay for these treatments because they have nothing to loose. 1 month to live and disparate to try anything, then dying completely broke.

We rather spend our money in our 30s and 40s on freedom to do whatever we want, even completing IronMan (hoping for 2018). Try that in your 80s.

I see some posters on here in their late 60s. Or others with 2mill asking if they have enough. WTF is that? I don't think MMM had that in mind when he created this community. This forum has less and less to do with early retirement and frugal living and more about having home care at 100k per year to wipe you old wrinkly ass. I will take care of my self before I need that kind of care.

Sure in our older years we will be stuck in crappy places to live, 25 year old doctors with 4 week wait and dollar menu food but will be able to look back on how awesome our lives were when we were healthy and free. I will trade that over home care or experimental drug to keep me here for 2 months longer.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2015, 12:59:46 PM by Astro Camper »

tipster350

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #152 on: November 19, 2015, 01:45:07 PM »
I will be taking a middle ground between multi millions and destitution. We can argue indefinitely about whether landing in indigent care is worth it for the glory days of youth. Personal choice and all of that. Having experienced through several family members what that means and how it plays out, that if you haven't died waiting for approval into various programs with budgets that are continually cut while they find ways to exclude more people and offer less in response, best of luck. Having seen my family members suffer and die has left an impression on me that will not go away. I suspect the older members here who have personally experienced seeing the reality for their family/friends are taking the more conservative route.

Shane

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #153 on: November 19, 2015, 02:36:15 PM »
The problem is that it's very difficult, if not impossible, for most normal people to save enough to pay for good nursing home care. Those of you who are criticizing the OP for being irresponsible and foolish for spending all of his money to enjoy good times while he and his wife are young and healthy, are you sure that you'll have enough to pay for possibly years of nursing home care? Do you know how much in-patient nursing home care costs?

When my dad was sick recently, we cared for him ourselves at home. We looked in to nursing homes in our community, and it was a joke. The places we considered were beautiful: clean, lots of dark hard woods on the walls in the waiting rooms, friendly staff, muzak playing in the hallways, but the only problem was that it would've cost us $10K-$13K/mo. to have my dad cared for in one of those facilities!

If it were only for a few months or maybe a year or even two years, most of us would be able to pay for a nursing home out of our stashes if we had to, but what if you or your partner needed nursing home care for longer than a couple of years? Would you be able to afford to pay out of pocket? How many more years would the OP and his wife have to work to be confident that they would be able to pay some crazy, huge medical bills that may or may not ever happen?

My wife and I have known several families who have had to actually quit their jobs so that they could qualify for Medicaid to pay for a family member's medical care. It sounds counter intuitive. Why would quitting working for a paycheck make it easier to pay for medical care? The reason is that when medical bills get up into the hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, no matter how hard you work or how much money you've got saved, you can't pay them.

Personally, I'm never going to live in a nursing home. For me, quality of life is much more important than how long I live. I try to enjoy every day, because you never know, it may be your last. It's great to plan for the future and make reasonable efforts to save enough so that you can be comfortable in your later years, but sometimes you've just got to say fuck it, enough is enough and live now.

Inspired by AstroCamper, my wife and I have been watching YouTube videos made by Millenials who have done exactly what the OP is proposing: quit their jobs, sold their houses, bought vans, and are driving around N.A. and the World, living life and enjoying themselves. Here's one made by a young Canadian couple we watched this morning: https://youtu.be/4kFqdWesW0o

jacquespluto

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #154 on: November 19, 2015, 02:55:13 PM »
Sorry, meant ponzi scheme, typed pyramid. SS is by definition a ponzi scheme.

Oh please.

SS isn't even remotely close to any reasonable definition of a Ponzi scheme.  Not even the same zip code.

Well we can agree to disagree on that one.  With that said I don't believe it will go away, but I do think that benefits will be reduced/delayed.


SirFrugal

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #155 on: November 19, 2015, 03:36:48 PM »
Sorry, meant ponzi scheme, typed pyramid. SS is by definition a ponzi scheme.

Oh please.

SS isn't even remotely close to any reasonable definition of a Ponzi scheme.  Not even the same zip code.

If it wasn't a ponzi scheme it would remain solvent if the government stopped adding money into the pot and was only going to continue to pay out benefits on already accrued credits.  Considering it depends entirely upon people paying into it right now to continue mailing checks out and would implode instantly without a constant stream of incoming revenue, yes...it is a ponzi scheme.  Its actually the worst kind of ponzi scheme, one the government forces us all into, at least if it was a privately run ponzi scheme some of us would be smart enough to avoid it.

Telecaster

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #156 on: November 19, 2015, 03:55:12 PM »
Sorry, meant ponzi scheme, typed pyramid. SS is by definition a ponzi scheme.

Oh please.

SS isn't even remotely close to any reasonable definition of a Ponzi scheme.  Not even the same zip code.



Well we can agree to disagree on that one.  With that said I don't believe it will go away, but I do think that benefits will be reduced/delayed.

There is no utility is using words to confuse, instead of to communicate.  Unless your intention is to deceive someone.    I hope that isn't your intention.  But I don't agree to be confused.   It is like agreeing to disagree that palm trees and dogs are the same thing.  They aren't.  It isn't helpful on any level to say they are. 

From the Google, here are the first two definitions of "Ponzi Scheme." 

Quote
noun
1.
a swindle in which a quick return, made up of money from new investors, on an initial investment lures the victim into much bigger risks.

Quote
:  an investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and bigger risks

And from wiki:

Quote
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation where the operator, an individual or organization, pays returns to its investors from new capital paid to the operators by new investors, rather than from profit earned by the operator.

In short, a Ponzi scheme is a type of fraud.   A couple questions about Social Security.  All of these things would have to be true if SS is a Ponzi scheme, as you claim: 

1.  Did you sign up in order to get some of those fast gains you were hearing about?

2.  Are you tempted put in more money because of the great returns you've been getting? 

3.  Are the finances hidden?

4.  Is SS pitched as an investment?

5. Is the operation misleading, that is, does it claim the investment returns are from some other source (like the stock market, ala Madoff) instead of from new investors?

Here are the answers:

1.  Nope.  Pretty much everyone with wages has to pay FICA tax. 

2. Nope.  At least I'm not.

3. Nope.  The books are a matter of public record and easily accessible.

4. Nope.  It isn't really pitched, but it is described basically as an insurance program.

5.  Nope, the money comes exactly where they claim it comes from. Again, it is all a matter of public record.

In short, SS doesn't meet any of the requirements for a Ponzi scheme.   In theory you could argue that they vaguely similar because current taxes are paying current benefits, as opposed to the money just being kept in an account for you.  That's true.  Dogs and cats are vaguely similar as well.  But current income paying current expenses is how business and government in general work on all levels.   It isn't fraud and it isn't a conspiracy.





 





MoonShadow

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #157 on: November 19, 2015, 04:43:59 PM »
It isn't fraud and it isn't a conspiracy.

I'll grant you that SS isn't a deliberate fraud.

That said, a large percentage of the public, and too many of the members of Congress, are woefully ignorant of how SS actually works.  And it functions in a nearly identical manner as a ponzi scheme, except that it's ultimately protected from insolvency by the taxing authority of the US government.  For that matter, a great many members of this forum are under the misguided belief that SS is actually insurance; yet it still is much closer to the investment fraud designed by Charlie Ponzi than an actual insurance pool.  If it were changed to be more like an actual insurance plan, I'd have less of a moral problem with it, but then it probably wouldn't cover the OP's plan either.

Personally, I expect that some form of means testing will be added to SS benefits within the next 10 or so years, simply because it's the easiest way to fix the future insolvency of the SS trust fund.  This wouldn't actually upset the OP's plan, but would screw with most of our own ER plans on this forum; since we wouldn't be able to expect a full payout when we get there if we still have reserve funds.

jacquespluto

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #158 on: November 19, 2015, 04:54:51 PM »
Sorry, meant ponzi scheme, typed pyramid. SS is by definition a ponzi scheme.

Oh please.

SS isn't even remotely close to any reasonable definition of a Ponzi scheme.  Not even the same zip code.



Well we can agree to disagree on that one.  With that said I don't believe it will go away, but I do think that benefits will be reduced/delayed.

There is no utility is using words to confuse, instead of to communicate.  Unless your intention is to deceive someone.    I hope that isn't your intention.  But I don't agree to be confused.   It is like agreeing to disagree that palm trees and dogs are the same thing.  They aren't.  It isn't helpful on any level to say they are. 

From the Google, here are the first two definitions of "Ponzi Scheme." 


Wow, thanks for the kind words and not respecting my opinion.

If you want to play the google game - google social security is a ponzi scheme.  I get a PBS article, 2 Forbes articles and a Washington Post article in the top 5 all discussing the topic.  Don't act like this is the first time you have heard this. 

Now google dogs and palm trees are the same thing.  So yes, I agree to disagree and we aren't comparing that to dogs and palm trees.

I would hope that in a community like this we can share and respect other’s opinions, which is why I stated that we can agree to disagree.  Dogs and palm trees SMH. Needless to say this will be my last response on this topic.

protostache

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #159 on: November 19, 2015, 05:20:38 PM »
It isn't fraud and it isn't a conspiracy.

I'll grant you that SS isn't a deliberate fraud.

That said, a large percentage of the public, and too many of the members of Congress, are woefully ignorant of how SS actually works.  And it functions in a nearly identical manner as a ponzi scheme, except that it's ultimately protected from insolvency by the taxing authority of the US government.  For that matter, a great many members of this forum are under the misguided belief that SS is actually insurance; yet it still is much closer to the investment fraud designed by Charlie Ponzi than an actual insurance pool.  If it were changed to be more like an actual insurance plan, I'd have less of a moral problem with it, but then it probably wouldn't cover the OP's plan either.

Personally, I expect that some form of means testing will be added to SS benefits within the next 10 or so years, simply because it's the easiest way to fix the future insolvency of the SS trust fund.  This wouldn't actually upset the OP's plan, but would screw with most of our own ER plans on this forum; since we wouldn't be able to expect a full payout when we get there if we still have reserve funds.

It is insurance, though. The program commonly known as Social Security also goes by the name "Old age, Survivor and Disability Insurance" (OASDI) and has a variety of benefits for people in different types of situations. For example:

  • Married with kid(s) and your spouse dies? OASDI will pay you a benefit until your kids turn 18.
  • Get declared permanently disabled? OASDI will pay you a benefit for your entire life.
  • Somehow make it to the ripe old age of 62? OASDI will pay you a benefit for the remainder of your years.

All three of these are based on how much you've paid into the system over the years.

Also, how do you think insurance works? You think they have a bank account labeled "MoonShadow's Benefits" with a bunch of money stashed in it? No. They pay claims out of incoming premiums, with a legally-mandated aggregate float. Just like OASDI.

cawiau

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #160 on: November 19, 2015, 05:38:17 PM »
I would prefer to work a couple more years to have more options available to me in my old age vs being broke.

Been there, done that, got the Tshirt and don't care to go back!


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Villanelle

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #161 on: November 19, 2015, 05:55:23 PM »
When I mentioned Cancer, I wasn't talking about Chemo that Medicare pays for. The large Hospice places have oncologist on staff since more than 50% of patients are there because terminal cancer. The shit that my wife witnessed is absolutely sick. The on staff oncologist has other oncologist visiting offering experimental treatment which none are covered by anything. She saw soooo many people selling their homes to pay for these treatments because they have nothing to loose. 1 month to live and disparate to try anything, then dying completely broke.

We rather spend our money in our 30s and 40s on freedom to do whatever we want, even completing IronMan (hoping for 2018). Try that in your 80s.

I see some posters on here in their late 60s. Or others with 2mill asking if they have enough. WTF is that?
I don't think MMM had that in mind when he created this community. This forum has less and less to do with early retirement and frugal living and more about having home care at 100k per year to wipe you old wrinkly ass. I will take care of my self before I need that kind of care.

Sure in our older years we will be stuck in crappy places to live, 25 year old doctors with 4 week wait and dollar menu food but will be able to look back on how awesome our lives were when we were healthy and free. I will trade that over home care or experimental drug to keep me here for 2 months longer.

If only those weren't the only two options.  DH and I plan to be FI at about 48.  Whether we retire or not will depend on whether we enjoy and want to work.  At that point, if we work, it will be a hobby.  My guess is he will find a job and I may work part time in a library.  We don't aspire to anywhere near $2m, or even $1m (though full disclosure, he will have a large pension).  We lived in Europe for 3 years and traveled out butts off.  We've seen and done amazing things.

And yet there is simply no way I would want to set myself up for a life of sitting at home and eating Ramen when I am 60+.  Most people here aren't looking for your $2m number, but nor are they looking to set themselves up for not being able to travel or eat an occasional steak when they are 68.  The 62+ money isn't just about snake oil and ass wiping.  It's about having a full life.  Have grandkids?  Too bad you can never afford to visit them?  Like decent food? too bad you can't afford to buy it. Enjoy theater?  Nope.  Movies? Not in the budget.  Need new shoes to ease your foot pain? Nope.  That's not about wanting desperation medicine and ass wiping.  And it is miles away from need $200k in post-Fire annual income. 

MoonShadow

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #162 on: November 19, 2015, 06:32:11 PM »
It isn't fraud and it isn't a conspiracy.

I'll grant you that SS isn't a deliberate fraud.

That said, a large percentage of the public, and too many of the members of Congress, are woefully ignorant of how SS actually works.  And it functions in a nearly identical manner as a ponzi scheme, except that it's ultimately protected from insolvency by the taxing authority of the US government.  For that matter, a great many members of this forum are under the misguided belief that SS is actually insurance; yet it still is much closer to the investment fraud designed by Charlie Ponzi than an actual insurance pool.  If it were changed to be more like an actual insurance plan, I'd have less of a moral problem with it, but then it probably wouldn't cover the OP's plan either.

Personally, I expect that some form of means testing will be added to SS benefits within the next 10 or so years, simply because it's the easiest way to fix the future insolvency of the SS trust fund.  This wouldn't actually upset the OP's plan, but would screw with most of our own ER plans on this forum; since we wouldn't be able to expect a full payout when we get there if we still have reserve funds.

It is insurance, though. The program commonly known as Social Security also goes by the name "Old age, Survivor and Disability Insurance" (OASDI) and has a variety of benefits for people in different types of situations. For example:

  • Married with kid(s) and your spouse dies? OASDI will pay you a benefit until your kids turn 18.
  • Get declared permanently disabled? OASDI will pay you a benefit for your entire life.
  • Somehow make it to the ripe old age of 62? OASDI will pay you a benefit for the remainder of your years.

All three of these are based on how much you've paid into the system over the years.

Yes & no.  There is an insurance component to SS generally, including the permanent disability and underage orphan parts.  However, my mother-in-law & sister-in-law both live off of SSI (social security insurance); which is notably different than the old age benefits that consumes 99%+ of the SS fica funds.  And it's not really tied to how much a person, their spouse or their parent paid in via fica taxes during their lifespan; except as a minimum qualification.  Both my MiL and Sil are blind, and neither ever worked.  My father-in-law was also blind, and worked as a private vendor/contractor in an IRS office.  He stocked vending machines & sold snacks across a small counter.  The qualifications for my Mil & Sil to get SSI, forever, are that 1) they are provably disabled, to the degree that gainful employment is rather unlikely (check) and 2) my FiL worked enough and paid enough FICA taxes that he would have qualified for some kind of old age benefit, had he lived long enough. (check)  I don't have a problem with this portion of SS, but it's not remotely the majority of what SS actually pays out, nor is it that portion of SS that is even considered by 99.9%+ of the population while considering SS, nor retirement.

So it would be more precise for me to say that the old age protection of SS, for which almost everyone is talking about whenever they mention SS, isn't insurance.  There isn't protection against an unlikely near term event, because the payout is highly likely in the long term; thus it's thought of (generally correctly) as a government pension plan.  Yet, a proper pension plan has savings & reserves; whereas SS doesn't.  I guess you could consider the old age portion of SS to be insurance in a similar vein to whole life insurance; but even that comparison fails because whole life is really just annually renewable term life bundled up with a forced savings plan, so in the long run the insurance company is just expecting to give your heirs your savings.  And again, SS doesn't have any such savings; neither individually nor collectively, because all of the funds are spent in some fashion, not saved nor invested.

Telecaster

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #163 on: November 19, 2015, 06:38:40 PM »

Also, how do you think insurance works? You think they have a bank account labeled "MoonShadow's Benefits" with a bunch of money stashed in it? No. They pay claims out of incoming premiums, with a legally-mandated aggregate float. Just like OASDI.

Indeed.  And sometimes insurance companies have what is called "underwriting losses."  That is, they pay out more in claims than they collect in premiums.   Very often they are fine with that because they make money on the float (Just as the OASDI trust fund makes money).   If the underwriting losses are too great they have to raise premiums.   Similarly Congress has raised payroll taxes a number of times in order to maintain the needed income, preventing underwriting losses if you will.  Congress has also at different times both increased and cut benefits.   


protostache

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #164 on: November 19, 2015, 06:49:47 PM »
So it would be more precise for me to say that the old age protection of SS, for which almost everyone is talking about whenever they mention SS, isn't insurance.  There isn't protection against an unlikely near term event, because the payout is highly likely in the long term; thus it's thought of (generally correctly) as a government pension plan.  Yet, a proper pension plan has savings & reserves; whereas SS doesn't.  I guess you could consider the old age portion of SS to be insurance in a similar vein to whole life insurance; but even that comparison fails because whole life is really just annually renewable term life bundled up with a forced savings plan, so in the long run the insurance company is just expecting to give your heirs your savings.  And again, SS doesn't have any such savings; neither individually nor collectively, because all of the funds are spent in some fashion, not saved nor invested.

It's a "pension" backed by the full faith and credit of the United States treasury, should it be required. I guess I don't see the point of comparing it to a "proper pension plan", because it isn't one and was never meant to be. The old age portion is a wealth transfer program designed to keep the elderly off the streets and has been wildly successful for several generations. It does have savings in the form of the trust fund. I suppose you can debate whether that means anything, but there really are stacks of bonds that really will get paid when SSA needs to pay out more than incoming taxes can sustain.

MoonShadow

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #165 on: November 19, 2015, 09:20:10 PM »
So it would be more precise for me to say that the old age protection of SS, for which almost everyone is talking about whenever they mention SS, isn't insurance.  There isn't protection against an unlikely near term event, because the payout is highly likely in the long term; thus it's thought of (generally correctly) as a government pension plan.  Yet, a proper pension plan has savings & reserves; whereas SS doesn't.  I guess you could consider the old age portion of SS to be insurance in a similar vein to whole life insurance; but even that comparison fails because whole life is really just annually renewable term life bundled up with a forced savings plan, so in the long run the insurance company is just expecting to give your heirs your savings.  And again, SS doesn't have any such savings; neither individually nor collectively, because all of the funds are spent in some fashion, not saved nor invested.

It's a "pension" backed by the full faith and credit of the United States treasury, should it be required. I guess I don't see the point of comparing it to a "proper pension plan", because it isn't one and was never meant to be. The old age portion is a wealth transfer program designed to keep the elderly off the streets and has been wildly successful for several generations. It does have savings in the form of the trust fund. I suppose you can debate whether that means anything, but there really are stacks of bonds that really will get paid when SSA needs to pay out more than incoming taxes can sustain.

No, it doesn't.  What it has is an entry in a computer that basicly says that those funds have been 'borrowed' by the US Treasury, and spent via the general funds.  They are called 'special issue bonds', because the SS trust fund is prohibited from selling those bonds on the open market.  So we have one agency of the federal government that owes funds to another agency of the federal government.  This is akin to taking money from your left pocket, to put it into your right pocket, so that your right pocket can buy a candy bar; and then writing your left pocket an IOU.  It's just on a much bigger scale.  The fact remains that the income that would pay for those future benefits, once the trust fund turns negative (mathematically) would still come from the taxing authority of the federal government at that time.  The story that you have been told about that trust fund is a mathematical slight of hand, intended to give you the impression that there exists some kind of savings.  This is not the same as you, as a private citizen, buying US Treasury bonds on the bond market.

Lian

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #166 on: November 19, 2015, 10:01:24 PM »
I plan on being healthy and free when I'm 62. Broke is not the way I want to do it.

Cassie

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #167 on: November 19, 2015, 10:20:56 PM »
At age 61 I would not want to be broke. We are healthy & hopefully have a  lot of good years left.  Yes we have had friends die young but also have seen people happily traveling in their 80's. No one knows what the future holds.  Trust me 62 is not that old. I wouldn't want to be totally broke at any age. 

Landlord2015

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #168 on: November 20, 2015, 05:05:03 AM »
I am from Europe and slightly confused.

What on earth specific is this SS that allows your wife at age 36 go to retirement?

https://www.ssa.gov/retire/apply.html#&a0=0
"
Questions about our Social Security Retirement Benefits Application...

Who can apply for retirement benefits online?
You can apply online for retirement benefits or benefits as a spouse if you:

are at least 61 years and 9 months old;
"
I guess SS is your own social security record....
Now what strikes me since I like movies like Hunger Games and Divergent that you are very optimistic about long term future. Look don't worry I am not saying you will get DYSTOPIA government, but I do say that things can change in 20+  years and for the worse.

Your wife was perhaps burned out by stress, but then she could have explained that and taken an unsual long vacation say 1 month which is long time for being USA, but normal in Europe.

Look if career sucks I maybe would understand you, but your wife was a nurse! In my country nurses and doctors are the most wanted workers that are welcomed and needed. It sounds a bit lazy by me to quit at age 36 as your wife did in your current money situation.

I did see some of your youtube videos and about this travelling vs being tourist debate I would say that I am neutral to that. I am the tourist type using hotels, but if you like travelling your style then enjoy it.


« Last Edit: November 20, 2015, 05:12:45 AM by Landlord2015 »

Bertram

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #169 on: November 20, 2015, 08:22:16 AM »
It sounds a bit lazy by me to quit at age 36 as your wife did in your current money situation.

A character attack on somebody you have never met and know almost nothing about seems really out of line and more than just rude.

That aside, considering someone lazy because they spend their time on things that may not get paid is just plain ignorant.

protostache

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #170 on: November 20, 2015, 08:32:16 AM »
So it would be more precise for me to say that the old age protection of SS, for which almost everyone is talking about whenever they mention SS, isn't insurance.  There isn't protection against an unlikely near term event, because the payout is highly likely in the long term; thus it's thought of (generally correctly) as a government pension plan.  Yet, a proper pension plan has savings & reserves; whereas SS doesn't.  I guess you could consider the old age portion of SS to be insurance in a similar vein to whole life insurance; but even that comparison fails because whole life is really just annually renewable term life bundled up with a forced savings plan, so in the long run the insurance company is just expecting to give your heirs your savings.  And again, SS doesn't have any such savings; neither individually nor collectively, because all of the funds are spent in some fashion, not saved nor invested.

It's a "pension" backed by the full faith and credit of the United States treasury, should it be required. I guess I don't see the point of comparing it to a "proper pension plan", because it isn't one and was never meant to be. The old age portion is a wealth transfer program designed to keep the elderly off the streets and has been wildly successful for several generations. It does have savings in the form of the trust fund. I suppose you can debate whether that means anything, but there really are stacks of bonds that really will get paid when SSA needs to pay out more than incoming taxes can sustain.

No, it doesn't.  What it has is an entry in a computer that basicly says that those funds have been 'borrowed' by the US Treasury, and spent via the general funds.  They are called 'special issue bonds', because the SS trust fund is prohibited from selling those bonds on the open market.  So we have one agency of the federal government that owes funds to another agency of the federal government.  This is akin to taking money from your left pocket, to put it into your right pocket, so that your right pocket can buy a candy bar; and then writing your left pocket an IOU.  It's just on a much bigger scale.  The fact remains that the income that would pay for those future benefits, once the trust fund turns negative (mathematically) would still come from the taxing authority of the federal government at that time.  The story that you have been told about that trust fund is a mathematical slight of hand, intended to give you the impression that there exists some kind of savings.  This is not the same as you, as a private citizen, buying US Treasury bonds on the bond market.

Yes? This is how Federal government program funding works. SSA has a stash, if you will, and can spend down that stash by trading in bonds for cash. If the Treasury has the cash from incoming tax revenues it hands it over to SSA. If it doesn't, Treasury sells new bonds to investors. In that case it's debt-neutral, because the federal debt includes the special issue bonds that SSA owns.

The government is not a private citizen nor a corporation. It's finances work differently, but that doesn't make it a bucket full of lies.

Richie Poor

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #171 on: November 20, 2015, 08:38:07 AM »
Good luck with your plan OP! Resourceful people will always find a way to get by so I bet you will be fine. If not, you will have had a full life that you lived on your own terms.

fujiters

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #172 on: November 20, 2015, 09:42:16 AM »
I think just buying an annuity early in your retirement years would solve these problems and keep you out of poverty. No squabbling over your assets/sacrificing care to leave more to heirs since the annuity stops when you do.

Matumba

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #173 on: November 20, 2015, 10:20:31 AM »
I think just buying an annuity early in your retirement years would solve these problems and keep you out of poverty. No squabbling over your assets/sacrificing care to leave more to heirs since the annuity stops when you do.
What's the benefit of buying an annuity vs constructing your own annuity like spending plan? 

Tyson

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #174 on: November 20, 2015, 10:43:09 AM »
So it would be more precise for me to say that the old age protection of SS, for which almost everyone is talking about whenever they mention SS, isn't insurance.  There isn't protection against an unlikely near term event, because the payout is highly likely in the long term; thus it's thought of (generally correctly) as a government pension plan.  Yet, a proper pension plan has savings & reserves; whereas SS doesn't.  I guess you could consider the old age portion of SS to be insurance in a similar vein to whole life insurance; but even that comparison fails because whole life is really just annually renewable term life bundled up with a forced savings plan, so in the long run the insurance company is just expecting to give your heirs your savings.  And again, SS doesn't have any such savings; neither individually nor collectively, because all of the funds are spent in some fashion, not saved nor invested.

It's a "pension" backed by the full faith and credit of the United States treasury, should it be required. I guess I don't see the point of comparing it to a "proper pension plan", because it isn't one and was never meant to be. The old age portion is a wealth transfer program designed to keep the elderly off the streets and has been wildly successful for several generations. It does have savings in the form of the trust fund. I suppose you can debate whether that means anything, but there really are stacks of bonds that really will get paid when SSA needs to pay out more than incoming taxes can sustain.

No, it doesn't.  What it has is an entry in a computer that basicly says that those funds have been 'borrowed' by the US Treasury, and spent via the general funds.  They are called 'special issue bonds', because the SS trust fund is prohibited from selling those bonds on the open market.  So we have one agency of the federal government that owes funds to another agency of the federal government.  This is akin to taking money from your left pocket, to put it into your right pocket, so that your right pocket can buy a candy bar; and then writing your left pocket an IOU.  It's just on a much bigger scale.  The fact remains that the income that would pay for those future benefits, once the trust fund turns negative (mathematically) would still come from the taxing authority of the federal government at that time.  The story that you have been told about that trust fund is a mathematical slight of hand, intended to give you the impression that there exists some kind of savings.  This is not the same as you, as a private citizen, buying US Treasury bonds on the bond market.

Yes? This is how Federal government program funding works. SSA has a stash, if you will, and can spend down that stash by trading in bonds for cash. If the Treasury has the cash from incoming tax revenues it hands it over to SSA. If it doesn't, Treasury sells new bonds to investors. In that case it's debt-neutral, because the federal debt includes the special issue bonds that SSA owns.

The government is not a private citizen nor a corporation. It's finances work differently, but that doesn't make it a bucket full of lies.

No, gubmint is evil and incompetent, always and forever.  These are axioms that are NEVER to be questioned!  ;)

onehair

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #175 on: November 20, 2015, 10:46:11 AM »
I would hope to not be broke by the time I am 62 if only to be contrary.  I get that stuff happens and if you have the need for a government program to help you over the hump or to survive by all means use it.  But if you can manage to save enough to FIRE or retire more comfortably or at your own choosing why wouldn't you?

lackofstache

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #176 on: November 20, 2015, 10:59:39 AM »
I think just buying an annuity early in your retirement years would solve these problems and keep you out of poverty. No squabbling over your assets/sacrificing care to leave more to heirs since the annuity stops when you do.
What's the benefit of buying an annuity vs constructing your own annuity like spending plan?

The annuity has "guaranteed" payouts, so if stocks go down, you don't have to adjust, it's a life insurance policy (so for many situations doesn't count as an asset).
Just look at the opposite sides of those coins for benefits of doing your own spending plan.

MoonShadow

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #177 on: November 20, 2015, 12:19:23 PM »
So it would be more precise for me to say that the old age protection of SS, for which almost everyone is talking about whenever they mention SS, isn't insurance.  There isn't protection against an unlikely near term event, because the payout is highly likely in the long term; thus it's thought of (generally correctly) as a government pension plan.  Yet, a proper pension plan has savings & reserves; whereas SS doesn't.  I guess you could consider the old age portion of SS to be insurance in a similar vein to whole life insurance; but even that comparison fails because whole life is really just annually renewable term life bundled up with a forced savings plan, so in the long run the insurance company is just expecting to give your heirs your savings.  And again, SS doesn't have any such savings; neither individually nor collectively, because all of the funds are spent in some fashion, not saved nor invested.

It's a "pension" backed by the full faith and credit of the United States treasury, should it be required. I guess I don't see the point of comparing it to a "proper pension plan", because it isn't one and was never meant to be. The old age portion is a wealth transfer program designed to keep the elderly off the streets and has been wildly successful for several generations. It does have savings in the form of the trust fund. I suppose you can debate whether that means anything, but there really are stacks of bonds that really will get paid when SSA needs to pay out more than incoming taxes can sustain.

No, it doesn't.  What it has is an entry in a computer that basicly says that those funds have been 'borrowed' by the US Treasury, and spent via the general funds.  They are called 'special issue bonds', because the SS trust fund is prohibited from selling those bonds on the open market.  So we have one agency of the federal government that owes funds to another agency of the federal government.  This is akin to taking money from your left pocket, to put it into your right pocket, so that your right pocket can buy a candy bar; and then writing your left pocket an IOU.  It's just on a much bigger scale.  The fact remains that the income that would pay for those future benefits, once the trust fund turns negative (mathematically) would still come from the taxing authority of the federal government at that time.  The story that you have been told about that trust fund is a mathematical slight of hand, intended to give you the impression that there exists some kind of savings.  This is not the same as you, as a private citizen, buying US Treasury bonds on the bond market.

Yes? This is how Federal government program funding works. SSA has a stash, if you will, and can spend down that stash by trading in bonds for cash. If the Treasury has the cash from incoming tax revenues it hands it over to SSA. If it doesn't, Treasury sells new bonds to investors. In that case it's debt-neutral, because the federal debt includes the special issue bonds that SSA owns.

The government is not a private citizen nor a corporation. It's finances work differently, but that doesn't make it a bucket full of lies.

I never made such a claim.  I said that it was structured most similar to a ponzi scheme with the additional backing of the taxing authority of the federal government.  I was being precise, not attacking the system.  I don't like the system, as it is; but I'm not deluded into thinking that it's a deliberate fraud.  Even historical investment frauds didn't start as ponzi schemes, most of them morphed into one over time and due to changes in management & investment strategies.  You can keep on believing that, since the SS Administration holds special bonds from the US Treasury, that there is actually some kind of savings in there somewhere; but your belief does not make it so.  No matter how you view it, current benefits are paid from current taxes; and future benefits will be paid for by future taxes.  There is, mathematically, no other way to do it.

Astro Camper

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #178 on: November 20, 2015, 12:24:09 PM »
My wife worked for 14 years in place where people die every day. My job as an engineer is like Disney Land compare to her job. She's far from lazy. Actually she volunteers in local animal shelter 4 times a week and also does fund raising for them on weekends. She loves it and I have never seen her happier. That makes me happy. Nothing wrong with retiring at 36. Wished more people could do it.

I have 6-8 month to go. Basically as soon as we sell our house next year, I'm out. If anyone is lazy, it's me. I have a job that most people would dream about yet all I want to do is quit. I make crazy amount of money, work less than 40 hrs (never worked single overtime hour), they treat me like a prince, I threaten to quit last year to travel so they gave me 8 weeks vacation per year. Every time it snowed last winter I didn't show up to work, so 3 week ago they offered me 4x4 company vehicle with studded snow tires which I declined ( still not coming to work in snow). And I don't even have HS diploma.

But none of this means anything to me. I have zero satisfaction from my job and all I dream about is travel and being out in nature. I work for one of the biggest polluter in America and the machines I designed helped the company double their production and profits which means more pollution.

Maybe we are crazy, maybe with seeing so many people dying with regrets we think that's norm, maybe spending time with nomads on  our trips just opened our eyes. Once we met people like Randy (link below), we realized that he is the true winner. Been traveling for 36 years living on $600/month. Now in his 60s he's got zero regrets. One of the happiest man you can meet. I'm sure most of you will see him as a looser. Old with no money for nice nursing home.

We are going down to Arizona for 3 weeks in January to hang around with these folks again. Many in their 30s. Awesome crowd.

http://mobilecodgers.blogspot.com/
« Last Edit: November 20, 2015, 12:36:03 PM by Astro Camper »

Shane

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #179 on: November 20, 2015, 12:34:20 PM »
Go AstroCamper Go!

Are you guys going to make a blog? AstroCamper.com?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #180 on: November 20, 2015, 12:35:23 PM »
I have absolutely no complaints about your strategy, as long as no children or uninformed creditors are being harmed in the process.  If a bank lent you money knowing higher rates come with the risk of default, well, they should be OK in the aggregate.  And who cares about SS, either paying in or paying out, it sucks to have no say in any of it.

Just for reference, here is a useful resource bolstering your point of view - http://www.kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/Does%20It%20Pay%2C%20at%20the%20Margin%2C%20to%20Work%20and%20Save.pdf

But also let me go on record saying that there are many much better places to play the 'old and destitute' game than the US...

Landlord2015

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #181 on: November 20, 2015, 02:59:08 PM »
SNIP...
Nothing useful said.

My wife worked for 14 years in place where people die every day. My job as an engineer is like Disney Land compare to her job. She's far from lazy. Actually she volunteers in local animal shelter 4 times a week and also does fund raising for them on weekends. She loves it and I have never seen her happier. That makes me happy. Nothing wrong with retiring at 36. Wished more people could do it.

I have 6-8 month to go. Basically as soon as we sell our house next year, I'm out. If anyone is lazy, it's me. I have a job that most people would dream about yet all I want to do is quit. I make crazy amount of money, work less than 40 hrs (never worked single overtime hour), they treat me like a prince, I threaten to quit last year to travel so they gave me 8 weeks vacation per year. Every time it snowed last winter I didn't show up to work, so 3 week ago they offered me 4x4 company vehicle with studded snow tires which I declined ( still not coming to work in snow). And I don't even have HS diploma.

But none of this means anything to me. I have zero satisfaction from my job and all I dream about is travel and being out in nature. I work for one of the biggest polluter in America and the machines I designed helped the company double their production and profits which means more pollution.

Maybe we are crazy, maybe with seeing so many people dying with regrets we think that's norm, maybe spending time with nomads on  our trips just opened our eyes. Once we met people like Randy (link below), we realized that he is the true winner. Been traveling for 36 years living on $600/month. Now in his 60s he's got zero regrets. One of the happiest man you can meet. I'm sure most of you will see him as a looser. Old with no money for nice nursing home.

We are going down to Arizona for 3 weeks in January to hang around with these folks again. Many in their 30s. Awesome crowd.

http://mobilecodgers.blogspot.com/
Now this is fairly good response. Ok now I get the picture. Her job was literally very taxing mentally. Yeah must be horrible to watch people die.

My father was a doctor he is dead now and my sister works in a hospital as those who take pictures of lungs etc. radiographer or whatever that term is called in English.

I get that department of hospital where she worked was horrible. However why not take one month break and apply for another hospital with less death and well less old people though yes people every now and then die despite what age.

All I am saying and this is meant as a compliment your wife has so good education and work experience so even after years of break she could have ok chance to get job as a nurse. This new job at a hospital that don't concentrate so much on old people dieying.

Anyway regardless on your decision I wish you and your wife happy journey in Arizona!


« Last Edit: November 20, 2015, 03:23:25 PM by Landlord2015 »

intellectsucks

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #182 on: November 22, 2015, 08:11:41 AM »
Full disclosure: I think you’re a troll.  This quote is the reason: “I bet my freedom during my young healthy years on it.”  Most of us expect to stay young and healthy for a long, long time by staying active, eating healthy, making smart life choices and having an optimistic mindset.  This quote hits my ears as saying “HAHAHA stupid mustachians!!  You can’t take it with you!!  That’s why I’m spending all my money now cause I won’t be able to enjoy it later!!  When you’re old and decrepit, you’ll wish you had lived it up like me instead of living like monks!!!”
HOWEVER, on the off-chance that you are NOT a troll, I’ll give you a real reply to help further the discussion.
You bring up a number of points to argue against having a large ‘stache throughout most of your retired years.  I’ll address them one by one:
1.   Family drama over money: other posters have pointed out that this is a reflection of relationships, values and education about money.  Most estate lawyers will tell you that being open and honest up front with your family, and having legal documents in place to back that up, will eliminate this drama.  When you tell your family how everything is to be split, your reasons why, then show them a will that stipulates that split, it eliminates the ability and usually the desire to argue over money.
2.   Time spent with family at the end: this has nothing to do with money and everything to do with your relationship with your family.
3.   Quality of care: You state that the quality of care is lower for patients who pay out of pocket because they’re worried about bills.  There are a number of ways to address this without reducing the quality of care, including long term care insurance/annuities.  It’s great that your wife’s hospice gives a high level of care and is Medicaid eligible, however not every hospice/nursing home that accepts Medicaid patients gives such a high level of care.
4.   Possible hypochondria in old age:  Seriously?  You think the amount of money you have will influence whether or not you act like this?  This sounds more like a mindset issue than a money issue.
Your plan as stated COULD work, but there are some concerns:
1.   Given the funding problems that social security is facing, there is a real possibility that your income will change unexpectedly at some point in the future.  At that point you may be unwilling or unable to replace it.
2.   If you are married, then at some point, one of your social security incomes will go away due to death.  Once you again, you or your wife may be unwilling to unable to replace it.
3.   Social security gives you very little wiggle room to account for the unexpected.  Without a ‘stache, one emergency could clear out your emergency fund, and social security may not be enough to replenish it.  You were a little vague on where you would live in retirement, but I’ll address the three most common: RV’s come with breakdowns and maintenance and fees, real estate requires repairs, taxes and insurance, renting means an expense that will never go away and will increase continually, possibly at a rate higher than your social security.
4.   You may be underestimating your lifestyle during the years from 62+.  Have you considered that your aunt who never worked sits in front of the T.V. because she is not financially able to do other things?  And that perhaps her hip problems stem from this rather than vice versa?
Perhaps you have considered my concerns and have addressed them in your plan, however the information that you put in the original post doesn’t indicate that you have.  Either way, good luck and all the best.

Landlord2015

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #183 on: November 22, 2015, 08:33:51 AM »
Full disclosure: I think you’re a troll.  This quote is the reason: “I bet my freedom during my young healthy years on it.”  Most of us expect to stay young and healthy for a long, long time by staying active, eating healthy, making smart life choices and having an optimistic mindset.  This quote hits my ears as saying “HAHAHA stupid mustachians!!  You can’t take it with you!!  That’s why I’m spending all my money now cause I won’t be able to enjoy it later!!  When you’re old and decrepit, you’ll wish you had lived it up like me instead of living like monks!!!”
HOWEVER, on the off-chance that you are NOT a troll, I’ll give you a real reply to help further the discussion.
You bring up a number of points to argue against having a large ‘stache throughout most of your retired years.  I’ll address them one by one:
1.   Family drama over money: other posters have pointed out that this is a reflection of relationships, values and education about money.  Most estate lawyers will tell you that being open and honest up front with your family, and having legal documents in place to back that up, will eliminate this drama.  When you tell your family how everything is to be split, your reasons why, then show them a will that stipulates that split, it eliminates the ability and usually the desire to argue over money.
2.   Time spent with family at the end: this has nothing to do with money and everything to do with your relationship with your family.
3.   Quality of care: You state that the quality of care is lower for patients who pay out of pocket because they’re worried about bills.  There are a number of ways to address this without reducing the quality of care, including long term care insurance/annuities.  It’s great that your wife’s hospice gives a high level of care and is Medicaid eligible, however not every hospice/nursing home that accepts Medicaid patients gives such a high level of care.
4.   Possible hypochondria in old age:  Seriously?  You think the amount of money you have will influence whether or not you act like this?  This sounds more like a mindset issue than a money issue.
Your plan as stated COULD work, but there are some concerns:
1.   Given the funding problems that social security is facing, there is a real possibility that your income will change unexpectedly at some point in the future.  At that point you may be unwilling or unable to replace it.
2.   If you are married, then at some point, one of your social security incomes will go away due to death.  Once you again, you or your wife may be unwilling to unable to replace it.
3.   Social security gives you very little wiggle room to account for the unexpected.  Without a ‘stache, one emergency could clear out your emergency fund, and social security may not be enough to replenish it.  You were a little vague on where you would live in retirement, but I’ll address the three most common: RV’s come with breakdowns and maintenance and fees, real estate requires repairs, taxes and insurance, renting means an expense that will never go away and will increase continually, possibly at a rate higher than your social security.
4.   You may be underestimating your lifestyle during the years from 62+.  Have you considered that your aunt who never worked sits in front of the T.V. because she is not financially able to do other things?  And that perhaps her hip problems stem from this rather than vice versa?
Perhaps you have considered my concerns and have addressed them in your plan, however the information that you put in the original post doesn’t indicate that you have.  Either way, good luck and all the best.
Interesting input and you sir sound like a wise man.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #184 on: November 22, 2015, 06:28:48 PM »
Lots of people live just fine on SS, so I find it hard to fault someone for making it their plan.  If you value free time and youth, and have enough money to make it to SS, then why not?  How can anyone say they are selling themselves short or trolling?  And when I was young, I also though I had a nice inheritance coming to me.  I went through many iterations just starting out too, made good money in the job market and stock market (like many people recently) and thought I'd become a writer or day trader and that the good times would continue to roll.  I even went through a period where my parents retired and threw off 'rich vibes' so I got a little cocky about inheritance.  I'm not seeing a troll here, personally, unless there is something I missed, and I'm more than happy to challenge a position and be skeptical of claims.

Landlord2015

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #185 on: November 23, 2015, 01:57:32 AM »
And later on you  mentioned your wife likely getting a 1 million plus inheritance, plus some inheritance for you.

And I believe you also mentioned you are willing to do some part time work as needed.
Excuse me where has Astro Camper mentioned that his wife will get a 1 million plus inheritance plus some inheritance for Astro Camper?

Never mind possible part time work people do what they need to do, but what I am interested in this inheritance if that would be true this whole thread is some kind of lure to a well hmm traveller culture or whatever you prefer to call it.

No I don't read his blogs and Astro Camper ain't my financial advisor or guru and I ain't interested in traveller lifestyle lol.

Where is the source for this million inheritance? I did inherit money, but it is a difference if you inherit say 50 000 or 1000 000.

Now nothing wrong with inheriting money, but I find this thread funny if that is true then better name would be perhaps live like a traveller and enjoy travelling. Broke by 62 and then I inherit 1 millioin right this does not make any sense.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2015, 02:07:52 AM by Landlord2015 »

arebelspy

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #186 on: November 23, 2015, 12:12:43 PM »
Reference to future inheritances was in this post, on page three of the thread (bolding added by me just now).

Sorry, I haven't figured out how to quote from different posts in one reply.  I'm not very tech savvy.

Start a reply via the quote button, then copy/paste that into a different reply started via a different quote, lather, repeat.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Landlord2015

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #187 on: November 23, 2015, 01:29:10 PM »
Thank you!  You'd think someone with a Ph.D. should be able to figure that out herself, but I just get freaked out by anything even moderately technical that I am not used to.....
Yeah well I am male and I suck with car repairs, but good with IT. I have never owned a car in my life though I have driving license and yes I have been driver to other people and sometimes I lend a car and pay for the fuel of course.

Plus there is always inheritance. My mom has some and my in-laws are sitting on 2mil (in their 70s). Will written for 50/50 for my wife and her sister, plus extra 200K for my wife as she is the executor and has to pay for all funeral costs. Not counting on any of that money but most likely we will get something.
This quote destroys the headline.

Astrocamper could have some kind of traveller thread. Well so Astro camper advertises be broke by 62 and then he forgot to mention in his initial post that he will likely inherit a million.

I am done with this hippie lifestyle advertising thread:).
« Last Edit: November 23, 2015, 01:32:39 PM by Landlord2015 »

Villanelle

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #188 on: November 23, 2015, 01:32:01 PM »
Yes, it seems to me that OP's plan isn't actually to retire and be broke by 62, though that's more provocative and makes a catchy thread title. At best, it seems to be his worst case scenario plan, with a huge inheritance (larger than many people's entire FIRE number), a second likely inheritance, decent returns on his money, and possible part time work or side hustles actually all being his real plan. 

So basically a lot like most of us.  When you strip down the bluster, it seems like all he's really doing is saying that if all sorts of shit hits all sorts of fans and he does end up broke at 62, it wouldn't be the total end of the world.  But he's got a lot of things in between where he is now and that actually coming to fruition. 

MoonShadow

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #189 on: December 15, 2015, 12:18:38 PM »
I'm reviving this thread, because I stumbled across a blog post, directly addressing the issues with SS that I touched on earlier.  Perhaps with a bit more eloquence.

Quote
Jack objects to a point I make in this post.  According to Jack I am mistaken to claim that U.S. Treasury securities held by the U.S. Social Security Administration are not genuine assets held by the S.S. Administration.  Says Jack:

Quote
The United States Government has never defaulted on any of its debts. This means that it will pay those debts to Social security when those come due.

From this true fact Jack draws a faulty conclusion.  Jack does not understand that Uncle Sam’s creditworthiness is not the issue.

I have never – not once – defaulted on any of my debts.  But this fact does not mean that if I write an I.O.U. to myself for, say, $100,000 and stick that I.O.U. in my desk drawer that I then have on hand in that I.O.U. an asset worth $100,000.  In fact, that I.O.U., for as long as it is owned by me, is worthless because, while I might in the future go through some formal process of redeeming that I.O.U. in full, I will do so only by transferring to myself $100,000 from myself.  To count this I.O.U. as among my assets in a way that suggests that it enhances my future ability to purchase things or to repay other loans is absurd.

If you doubt my claim that that I.O.U. held by me is worthless, ask yourself what would happen to the net present value of my wealth if I took a match to that I.O.U. and burned it.  Clearly, my net wealth would be unchanged.  While I no longer have a document entitling me to receive from me $100K, I also am no longer under any obligation to pay to me that $100K.

There might be, under a variety of circumstances, sound bookkeeping reasons for me to write an I.O.U. to myself and to formally redeem it when it comes due.  But under no circumstances does such an I.O.U. written to myself and held by me represent a genuine asset.

http://cafehayek.com/2015/12/i-wish-that-valuable-assets-were-indeed-so-easy-to-conjure.html

protostache

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #190 on: December 15, 2015, 02:20:55 PM »
I'm reviving this thread, because I stumbled across a blog post, directly addressing the issues with SS that I touched on earlier.  Perhaps with a bit more eloquence.

Quote
Jack objects to a point I make in this post.  According to Jack I am mistaken to claim that U.S. Treasury securities held by the U.S. Social Security Administration are not genuine assets held by the S.S. Administration.  Says Jack:

Quote
The United States Government has never defaulted on any of its debts. This means that it will pay those debts to Social security when those come due.

From this true fact Jack draws a faulty conclusion.  Jack does not understand that Uncle Sam’s creditworthiness is not the issue.

I have never – not once – defaulted on any of my debts.  But this fact does not mean that if I write an I.O.U. to myself for, say, $100,000 and stick that I.O.U. in my desk drawer that I then have on hand in that I.O.U. an asset worth $100,000.  In fact, that I.O.U., for as long as it is owned by me, is worthless because, while I might in the future go through some formal process of redeeming that I.O.U. in full, I will do so only by transferring to myself $100,000 from myself.  To count this I.O.U. as among my assets in a way that suggests that it enhances my future ability to purchase things or to repay other loans is absurd.

If you doubt my claim that that I.O.U. held by me is worthless, ask yourself what would happen to the net present value of my wealth if I took a match to that I.O.U. and burned it.  Clearly, my net wealth would be unchanged.  While I no longer have a document entitling me to receive from me $100K, I also am no longer under any obligation to pay to me that $100K.

There might be, under a variety of circumstances, sound bookkeeping reasons for me to write an I.O.U. to myself and to formally redeem it when it comes due.  But under no circumstances does such an I.O.U. written to myself and held by me represent a genuine asset.

http://cafehayek.com/2015/12/i-wish-that-valuable-assets-were-indeed-so-easy-to-conjure.html

Governments do not operate their finances like individuals and no amount of not-very-clever metaphors is going to change that fact.

Sorry.

Things run differently when there are laws promising that the I.O.U. will be paid, and other laws that authorize the Treasury (our I.O.U.s equivalent of a checking account) to literally make more money to settle the debt.

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #191 on: December 15, 2015, 02:24:06 PM »
I'm reviving this thread, because I stumbled across a blog post, directly addressing the issues with SS that I touched on earlier.  Perhaps with a bit more eloquence.

Quote
Jack objects to a point I make in this post.  According to Jack I am mistaken to claim that U.S. Treasury securities held by the U.S. Social Security Administration are not genuine assets held by the S.S. Administration.  Says Jack:

Quote
The United States Government has never defaulted on any of its debts. This means that it will pay those debts to Social security when those come due.

From this true fact Jack draws a faulty conclusion.  Jack does not understand that Uncle Sam’s creditworthiness is not the issue.

I have never – not once – defaulted on any of my debts.  But this fact does not mean that if I write an I.O.U. to myself for, say, $100,000 and stick that I.O.U. in my desk drawer that I then have on hand in that I.O.U. an asset worth $100,000.  In fact, that I.O.U., for as long as it is owned by me, is worthless because, while I might in the future go through some formal process of redeeming that I.O.U. in full, I will do so only by transferring to myself $100,000 from myself.  To count this I.O.U. as among my assets in a way that suggests that it enhances my future ability to purchase things or to repay other loans is absurd.

If you doubt my claim that that I.O.U. held by me is worthless, ask yourself what would happen to the net present value of my wealth if I took a match to that I.O.U. and burned it.  Clearly, my net wealth would be unchanged.  While I no longer have a document entitling me to receive from me $100K, I also am no longer under any obligation to pay to me that $100K.

There might be, under a variety of circumstances, sound bookkeeping reasons for me to write an I.O.U. to myself and to formally redeem it when it comes due.  But under no circumstances does such an I.O.U. written to myself and held by me represent a genuine asset.

http://cafehayek.com/2015/12/i-wish-that-valuable-assets-were-indeed-so-easy-to-conjure.html

Governments do not operate their finances like individuals and no amount of not-very-clever metaphors is going to change that fact.

Sorry.


Governments don't have special laws of economics or mathematics, and no amount of hand waving will ever change that actual fact, as opposed to what you assert is a fact.

Sorry.

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #192 on: December 15, 2015, 03:07:24 PM »

Governments do not operate their finances like individuals and no amount of not-very-clever metaphors is going to change that fact.

Sorry.

Things run differently when there are laws promising that the I.O.U. will be paid, and other laws that authorize the Treasury (our I.O.U.s equivalent of a checking account) to literally make more money to settle the debt.

I...here's a person that both knows the SS trust fund will need general revenue assistance and why, and is OK with that.  As though an additional massive line item in the federal budget is going to be easy to handle, because of the ability of the government to print more money.

I can understand someone who is ignorant and hopeful.  I can understand someone who is knowledgeable and frustrated/fatalistic.

I cannot comprehend this worldview of "yes we're being misled but don't worry because taxes."

Money that should have been set aside, and indeed, by law, was set aside, got spent.  That is wrong.  It just is.  That the way it got spent is that an IOU was created is sort of...I don't know...a consolation prize.  If you wanted money to do all those other things, then you tax to get that money.  This money was already allocated to a purpose.  At some point, as a society, we really should think about maybe not constantly running a deficit.  We really should think about maybe drawing a line at what % of the budget can be going just to interest on debt, or to the total debt payment.  It's a little silly that a country with these kinds of resources has cash flow issues at all.

Basically "we broke the wagon, but we did it in such a way that the wheels won't come off for 60 or 70 years, and we'll be dead then, soooo good luck!"

Will I get a check from social security?  Yes.  Will it be less than was promised (and in fact, less than is STILL promised)?  Yes.  Is that wrong?  Yes.  It is both morally and ethically wrong.  Is there anything I can do about it?  Yes, I can take steps to save more and plan to take care of myself and others I care about.

I'm grateful I have the means to do it, somewhat dreading what it will be like to see widespread rampant poverty among the elderly, but I'm not going to pretend that we didn't get screwed.  Being an adult is about what you do after you get screwed.

ltt

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #193 on: December 15, 2015, 05:10:20 PM »
.......and therein lies the problem------getting everything for free, while the rest of us pay for everyone else's freebies.

protostache

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #194 on: December 15, 2015, 05:24:43 PM »
Money that should have been set aside, and indeed, by law, was set aside, got spent.  That is wrong.  It just is.  That the way it got spent is that an IOU was created is sort of...I don't know...a consolation prize.

I don't understand is what the alternative would have been. The bonds that SSA bought from Treasury are literally the safest investment possible.

What would you rather SSA have done?

Telecaster

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #195 on: December 15, 2015, 06:06:06 PM »
I don't understand is what the alternative would have been. The bonds that SSA bought from Treasury are literally the safest investment possible.

What would you rather SSA have done?

^ That's the question I always ask people.   The answer is usually something like "it shouldn't have been spent."   So let's say the money was put in the bank instead.   The bank promises to give the money back.  That's called an IOU.  Same thing, only you are hoping Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers will be there instead of Uncle Sam.  Uh, no thanks.

The money was indeed spent, it was spent buying bonds.   Revisiting a prior post upthread, an analogy:

Quote
I have never – not once – defaulted on any of my debts.  But this fact does not mean that if I write an I.O.U. to myself for, say, $100,000 and stick that I.O.U. in my desk drawer that I then have on hand in that I.O.U. an asset worth $100,000...

...If you doubt my claim that that I.O.U. held by me is worthless, ask yourself what would happen to the net present value of my wealth if I took a match to that I.O.U. and burned it.  Clearly, my net wealth would be unchanged.  While I no longer have a document entitling me to receive from me $100K, I also am no longer under any obligation to pay to me that $100K.

Terrible analogy.   SS bonds weren't created by simply writing an IOU.   SS bonds were purchased with real dollars collected from real taxpayers.   If we want to make the analogy sort of consistent, author would have first had to have earned $100K.  Then promised himself to use that money for some future thing.   If he breaks the promise to himself he still has the $100K.   

One of the other problems with the analogy is that it assumes the real issue is that U.S. government bonds are being used to back a future U.S. government obligation and the implication is that's funny accounting, because when you boil it down it is sort of the same entity.    And one entity owing itself money is phony accounting, the narrative goes.   So let's say the money was invested in Canadian bonds instead.  Now the entities are separated.  Does that make it more viable?   Of course not.  It just shifts the promise from ourselves to Canada. 







MoonShadow

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #196 on: December 15, 2015, 08:34:10 PM »
I don't understand is what the alternative would have been. The bonds that SSA bought from Treasury are literally the safest investment possible.

What would you rather SSA have done?

^ That's the question I always ask people.   The answer is usually something like "it shouldn't have been spent."   So let's say the money was put in the bank instead.   The bank promises to give the money back.  That's called an IOU.  Same thing, only you are hoping Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers will be there instead of Uncle Sam.  Uh, no thanks.

The money was indeed spent, it was spent buying bonds.

This perspective might have some merit, if the SSA actually bought marketable bonds, and had the power to sell them on the open market like any other investor.  This is not the case.  Not only does the SSA not have the ability to sell them, due to regulatory restrictions that require them to keep what they have to maturity; they couldn't sell them even if they did, because those are "special issue" bonds.   Which, in practice, don't exist.

One thing that could have been done with those funds, that would have been a world away more honest, was to invest those funds into the same funds that government employees can invest into using their government regulated & approved mutual funds.  At least that would have been a real investment.  Another alternative, if putting those funds into the stock market were too scary, is to have bought infrastructure bonds rather than special issue federal reserve bonds.  Those infrastructre bonds could have even had special rules, such as investing into infrastructure that would have a high likelyhood of benefiting the retirees in the future.  For example, hospital construction bonds, group retirement homes, nursing schools, etc.
Quote

  Revisiting a prior post upthread, an analogy:

Quote
I have never – not once – defaulted on any of my debts.  But this fact does not mean that if I write an I.O.U. to myself for, say, $100,000 and stick that I.O.U. in my desk drawer that I then have on hand in that I.O.U. an asset worth $100,000...

...If you doubt my claim that that I.O.U. held by me is worthless, ask yourself what would happen to the net present value of my wealth if I took a match to that I.O.U. and burned it.  Clearly, my net wealth would be unchanged.  While I no longer have a document entitling me to receive from me $100K, I also am no longer under any obligation to pay to me that $100K.

Terrible analogy.   SS bonds weren't created by simply writing an IOU.   SS bonds were purchased with real dollars collected from real taxpayers.   If we want to make the analogy sort of consistent, author would have first had to have earned $100K.  Then promised himself to use that money for some future thing.   If he breaks the promise to himself he still has the $100K.   

Nope, because the government doesn't have an income of it's own.  It only has it's taxing authority.

Quote

One of the other problems with the analogy is that it assumes the real issue is that U.S. government bonds are being used to back a future U.S. government obligation and the implication is that's funny accounting, because when you boil it down it is sort of the same entity.    And one entity owing itself money is phony accounting, the narrative goes. 


Not phony accounting.  You didn't read the article I posted. Net zero accounting.  The complaint is that the assets don't actually exist.  If I have $1 in my left pocket, be it from income or some power to tax; and then I write my left pocket an IOU for some future date & purpose, so that I can buy that candy bar today, I have still spent that money.  It's gone.  The IOU is legitimate accounting, but of nothing (of marketable value) on net.  The only way for that IOU to be properly repaid, so that my left pocket may have that future purpose paid for, is to have more income.  In the case of the government, that means taxing authority.  Thus, all future benefits, as the accounting is presently arranged, must mathematically be paid for from future tax revenue.  All fine so far, as this is pretty much how most every national pension works.  The dishonesty arrives because of how this accounting system was sold to the next generation, back in 1965.  They were told that there was a savings system in place, and that they are entitled to the benefits that they paid into for their entire working lives.   Demographically & mathematically, however, this promise is impossible.  At least with a purely national pension, openly paid directly from current taxation, no one is under the illusion that the benefits are actually theirs by right; because (whether or not they like it) they know that the tax laws can be changed.  The Boomers today believe that this is theft, after all, they paid their due!  Sorry, this is a beggar thy children setup, and it's going to cease to be (in practice, if not in name) once enough voting Boomers die off that the Millennials, who are (typically) under no such illusions about the longevity or viability of SS, will take full control of the electorate.

Quote
So let's say the money was invested in Canadian bonds instead.  Now the entities are separated.  Does that make it more viable?   Of course not.  It just shifts the promise from ourselves to Canada.

This much is true.  See my above commentary about what we could have done instead.  As a side note, investing into infrastructure is a pretty accurate description of what Japan has been doing with their deficit spending.  They may have a debt to GDP ratio over 2:1, but they will have cities well suited to the aged & infirm.  In other words, actual assets that will benefit their elderly population.  We don't even have that.

Stasher

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #197 on: December 18, 2015, 10:13:59 AM »
To sum up this thread.

1 op had a bad title and first post.

2 he explained himself very well

3 his plan is very sound

4 he's doing the opposite of what most here do omy. Omy.

He should be commended for this his reasons are sound. He has the means to live in the here and now. And guess what in a few years he can answer that question everyone here asks.

Can you do this on that low an re ? 

Congrats. Keep us posted on your journey.
I agree and I'm not so sure why everyone is so quick to jump on a person in a bit of an elitist or negative tone?  I usually just read the forums here and don't comment but couldn't help feel the negative vibes resonating from a large majority of the comments here wrapped in words trying to conceal that fact. I only speak of the using of the SS and not about his plan for retirement, his savings, the health care or nursing homes...none of that.

I don't really understand the issue with benefiting from a program that you pay for?
Is the United States SS similar to the Canadian CPP ?
I have fully maxed the payment limit into CPP for the last 20 years and intend to spend that cheque when entitled (I believe 65 is the age available)

<< Boarder42 beautiful phot of MesaArch , I just traveled by myself for 16days across the western US hiking and living out of my car. Amazing time , spent under $400 and solidified my intent to travel in the dirtbag life in a year or 2 . I am a backpacker and climber so a minimalist life is in no way an inconvenience but rather a blessing>>

« Last Edit: December 18, 2015, 11:09:10 AM by Stasher »

Shane

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #198 on: December 18, 2015, 11:10:03 AM »
To sum up this thread.

1 op had a bad title and first post.

2 he explained himself very well

3 his plan is very sound

4 he's doing the opposite of what most here do omy. Omy.

He should be commended for this his reasons are sound. He has the means to live in the here and now. And guess what in a few years he can answer that question everyone here asks.

Can you do this on that low an re ? 

Congrats. Keep us posted on your journey.
I agree and I'm not so sure why everyone is so quick to jump on a person in a bit of an elitist or negative tone?  I usually just read the forums here and don't comment but couldn't help feel the negative vibes resonating from a large majority of the comments here wrapped in words trying to conceal that fact.
I don't really understand the issue with benefiting from a program that you pay for?
Is the United States SS similar to the Canadian CPP ?
I have fully maxed the payment limit into CPP for the last 20 years and intend to spend that cheque when entitled (I believe 65 is the age available)

<< Boarder42 beautiful phot of MesaArch , I just traveled by myself for 16days across the western US hiking and living out of my car. Amazing time , spent under $400 and solidified my intent to travel in the dirtbag life in a year or 2 . I am a backpacker and climber so a minimalist life is in no way an inconvenience but rather a blessing>>

Fear drives many people's lives, especially when it comes to money. If you've convinced yourself that you have to work OMY, because $1MM or $2MM just isn't enough, then someone like you or the OP who comes along and says he can live on very little money is a threat. It makes you worry that maybe you're doing the wrong thing...

Erica

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Re: Broke by 62, YES
« Reply #199 on: December 18, 2015, 11:29:53 AM »
Hi guys, My first post here.

I've been reading this forum for over a year. One thing I noticed is that many of you are looking to retire in 50s, even late 50s with huge amount a money that you will leave behind when dead. Everybody fallows the same 4% rule so the money lasts forever just because Mr MMM says so. Most of you already are living frugally and have enough put away for the next 20 years, so why are you still working? Let me explain.

My wife retired 3 years ago at age 36 and I'm retiring next June at 41. But unlike many of you who plan to draw 4% till death, we will be broke by age 62.

My wife worked as Hospice nurse for 14 years and has a different view on things. Slowly I came to realize the same thing after hearing and seeing hundred of her patients and watching my own family. The people with more money on their death bed were much, much worse off than those that lived on SS and were leaving nothing behind. The family drama over money, the anger over Hospice costs, nursing cost. Patients who are in pain but refuse pain treatments in fear of the bill or leaving less for kids, or feeling guilty in front of their kids. End of the life care insurance fights and on and on and on. Even on their death beds, many still obsess about money.

The patients who are broke with no assets have the least amount of problems. The family is there because they want to. There is no money to fight over. All costs are paid by Medicare or Medicaid. The patients actually receive better care because no Insurance company is involved dictating what will be covered and what wont. And this is just a Hospice part.

Just looking at our large family (mom has 8 siblings), some have money, others none. The aunts and uncles that live strictly on SS live just as comfortable as those with money. Sure they can't travel or go out eat but they did most of that when they were younger and healthier (reason they are broke now). But because they have 0 left, they worry about nothing. Their healthcare is fully covered, free glasses, free dentures, free nurse assistance. Where my Las Vegas uncle who has the most money is always running around to doctors (almost like a hobby). He has 20 different health conditions (self diagnosed) and is obsessed with living forever. My Chicago aunt who also has money is the same way. All those two trade is supplements websites and insurance quotes. Arthritis runs deep in my family and it breaks my heart watching those that worked till mid 60s to spend it all on healthcare. Their entire life revolves around doctors, hospitals, dentists, physical therapies and drugs and they have to pay for it all.

If I compare my aunt that is broke, living on SS, gets everything for free, who quit working in her 30s and hit the road for 11 years. Traveled all over Asia and Europe. I see her as a winner.  Now with 2 hip and 1 knee replacements  she sits in front of TV just like the rich uncle but has no worries and is glad she did all these things when she was healthy.

So why worry about having 600K in 401K at age 62????

My wife and I saved just over 500K, most in 401K. We always lived frugally (old cars, small house) and plan on keep living that way except on the road.  Bought 1999 truck I'm restoring to tow small trailer I plan on buying. We should live very comfortably bouncing around RV parks and some boondocking. Then in between spend some time in Asia and South America. If I budget everything right, by the time we reach 62, we will be broke. Starting with 20K per year, ending with 30K in 2036. Already talked to SS office. Actually we were very surprised how much we will be getting at 62 with this scenario.
Good post, thank you but few will understand. In some ways, that is a benefit. Three years ago this would've been just words to me until doing hospice twice, one for an upper middle class in Southern California (Uncle)  and another close relative who had more $$ than that. People don't comprehend how fast $$ it gets blown on medical bills The second relative had great health insurance thru his former job which covered most of it. People who think that their kids are going to work hard and do well, pensions will be around as planned, well I fear are being naive. JP Morgan jerked their employees out of their pension by using it to invest in their own stocks which went down the tubes. More incentive for kids to fight over their inheritance while parents are still alive.

Greed will take over. It is best to hide your money in a safe somewhere, pay for your healthcare as needed. But appear broke, just in case. It's no ones business how much money you have. My son has a 401k he is contributing to which I wish he wouldn't but he's a big boy. It could be used against him, and be the cause of him loosing his estate (no inheritance for my grandkids). It is best to be broke when you are a Senior, you are correct. No one can argue about money in the family as they won't know how much you have. You tell one person, that's it. Of course if you only have one child like us, it's is easy. Giving it away to you kin prior to becoming ill, if possible, is the way to go. We are planning on having a nice house, a few houses nearby to rent out, (all un-permitted on inexpensive land) and living fine. Since we live simply anyhow, even if we are well off, we wouldn't travel much anyhow. We are more homebodies than not and most of what we love is free anyhow.

My husbands family will not be fighting about money but we have one bad apple in the bunch. Whose milked at least 200 thousand from my FIL.
But my other BIL is richer than most anyone can imagine, he's at 100 million due to some inventions (Bill Gates is a client) so I am sure he will use his own money if possible to take his brother to court. He got milked by him too (about 100 thousand) and lied to. My FIL tried to kill off my MIL, I had reported him for abuse but the family didn't believe me. Honestly I wondered if I was going nuts too as I would've stood up in court for the guy but you have to do what you see. Hospice ended up reporting him, the cops came on the day my MIL passed. I tried to protect her and he threatened to throw me out. I didn't leave....but  my husband is still helping him. I am grapling with resentment which I know is not right. He can't help it, it is my FIL fault. My 24 yr old son wont go near his Grandpa, he's much more stable not being brought up around abuse. My MIL landed in the hospital prior due to him trying to starve her to death. She was in a wheelchair and couldn't get her own food, and had alzheimers. We moved a bit too late but she knew I reported him. She backed him up as I expected, and wanted him back taking care of her.

People don't understand how important it is to your own safety to appear broke, whether you are or not. And that even though you've known your loved ones for years, those little nagging feelings that this person has no feelings but is re-hersing his feelings shouldn't be ignored. That is not normal, it is of a sociopath.The only way to keep your finances private as they should be, is to keep them off of any computer database. You and your wife are wise, but remember, your children may not act up as those your wife has seen. I would die believing my son wouldn't do such a thing. Some people are honest and hold to a level of love for their parents and others until death. It's gotta be hard to care for someone who is dying, then to boot, have all of this garbage to deal with. So easy to loose faith in humanity.


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« Last Edit: December 18, 2015, 12:23:00 PM by Outdoorsygal »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!