Being ok with not being ok?

[mistymoney]

So - I am getting closer to taking the leap and quitting my day job. It is really impacting my health on so many levels, plus a lack of appreciation in terms of raise and a promised promotion that still is not coming through - but still is not a no - so keeping me on the hook as it were. Promotion was fist dangled about a year ago to keep me with all the extra responsibilities. yeah. a year. I've entered so many conversation with the aim to say I want to stop doing the work if I don't get the title - but it is alway the title is coming. At this point, I'm a bit over it really.

So - money wise, I'd certainly be ok for a number of years - and maybe forever - but it is not a guarantee. I have a 26% chance of dying broke at 100 based on engaging data will money last calcs. That drops to 17% if I can keep my freelance income at current level. Been there for 2 years, only 2 clients, occational but annual projects. But could change at any moment, could have 0 and then I don't know how to get other clients, just a weird fluke I got these via my contacts saying hey - interested? But no others are on the horizon.

It is 20 years out before any percent of going broke crops up. seems like I could see it coming form long ahead and do something - cut expenses, downsize, try to pick up part time or dig up clients for freelance, etc. But - 10 years from now I'd not be so employable.

I'm worried about the cost of materials, supply chain, ongoing pandemic, etc. making things NOT so conforming to the historical data of the simulations of the past. Climate change  - where is that going? In terms of costs of goods and services? I think these are all much more likely to affect those with super lean/not quite lean fires.

So - I'm trying to be ok with not being ok? But I don't know how to get there. I need to take a leap of one kind or another but the thought of starting to withdraw money and seeing the numbers go down and not pop back up with growth is really terrifiying for me. What if quitting turns out to be a terrible mistake that leaves me in relatively comfortable poverty - but no extras, no traveling, etc. etc.? How do I be ok with taking a risk and possibly never getting to where I wanted to get?

[pasadenafr]

Why not look for a new job? You can quit, take some time to regroup and work on your mental health, and start looking for a new job.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. There are jobs out there that won't suck your soul dry.

[ChpBstrd]

Where are you in terms of assets/expenses? On the verge of FIRE, or 8 years to go?

[zolotiyeruki]

74% chance of success would indicate you're close to reaching the magic number.  And, as pasadenafr said, you can find another, non-soul-sucking job to reduce your withdrawal rate, or maybe even cover your expenses while your investments grow for a few more years.

Back-calculating from your 25%-ish chance of failure, it would appear that your current savings are about 71% of your target number (i.e.25x expenses), so they'll need perhaps 5-7 years more to grow.  It seems like your side gig brings in about 10% of what you earn at your day job.

Is Social Security close enough (and expected benefits high enough) to positively impact your success rate?

Honestly, my suggestion would be:  quit your current job, give them honest feedback about why you are leaving, and go find a job you really enjoy, even if it doesn't pay as much.  Enjoy life at your new job for a few years until your stash hits your Magic Number, and then retire.

[simonsez]

So - I am getting closer to taking the leap and quitting my day job. It is really impacting my health on so many levels

Life is way too short to be knowingly in a position that is bad for your health across the board.  You deserve better!

[PDXTabs]

If it were me I would prioritize my health and either:

• Take a sabbatical with the plan of going back to work
• FIRE by decreasing my expenses, probably through geoarbitrage

[Loren Ver]

Don't know if you have seen this calculator but it was made by the forum's own @CCCA
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

If your job is actually hurting your health I would recommend checking it out to help with your numbers if you haven't already, it might help with perspective.

Here is the forum link for the longer discussion and its iterations. 
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rich-broke-or-dead-visualizing-probabilities-of-outcomes-in-early-retirement/


As others have said, this is not a question with just two possible answers, but almost infinitely many answers.  The worst possible seems to be just sitting where you are for years (!!!!) waiting for more of your life to be over so you can retire.  You don't get any guaranteed time.  Great if you live to 100, you only squandered some.  But don't bet on it. Start living your best life today, even if it is in a different job.

Loren

[Freedomin5]

I second (third?) the opinion to start looking for a new job. It’s about feeling like you have control and options more so than actually having to switch jobs. And if your boss knows that you’re looking, that may light a fire under their behinds to get you that promised promotion.

[Sibley]

New job! This is not the only job in the world. If you don't want to stay in the same general field/type of job, then look for something else.

[Villanelle]

I'd probably quit, continue with the current freelance, and after a couple months of decompressing, start looking for some additional work.  More freelance clients, "barista" FIRE (substitute teaching, dog walking, whatever), or whatever you can find.  Or, if you find that the break has refreshed you, then look for another full time job and use your money to buy you the luxury of not having to take a job that isn't a good fit. 

However, when I gave my notice I'd also offer to continue on part time, on an hourly billed basis for a max of 20 hours a week, at roughly 150% of the current hourly wage (but they will be saving money presumably because your benefits will be cheaper).  Also, if there's any part of the work you especially hate, specify that you won't do that.  Assuming this won't make you miserable, it seems like a great compromise.  And the worst that happens is that they say no, which is fine as you were willing to quit anyway. 

[tomorrowsomewherenew]

I'd go get a new full-time job. The economy is white-hot, and employers are desperate. Now is the time to get yourself your dream deal.

[mistymoney]

Where are you in terms of assets/expenses? On the verge of FIRE, or 8 years to go?

depending on the market of course, I was thinking 2-5 years.

[mistymoney]

74% chance of success would indicate you're close to reaching the magic number.  And, as pasadenafr said, you can find another, non-soul-sucking job to reduce your withdrawal rate, or maybe even cover your expenses while your investments grow for a few more years.

Back-calculating from your 25%-ish chance of failure, it would appear that your current savings are about 71% of your target number (i.e.25x expenses), so they'll need perhaps 5-7 years more to grow.  It seems like your side gig brings in about 10% of what you earn at your day job.

Is Social Security close enough (and expected benefits high enough) to positively impact your success rate?

Honestly, my suggestion would be:  quit your current job, give them honest feedback about why you are leaving, and go find a job you really enjoy, even if it doesn't pay as much.  Enjoy life at your new job for a few years until your stash hits your Magic Number, and then retire.

I'm 74% of the number, side gig can provide about 20% of yearly spend right now.

I did include social security in my calculations, budgeting 1k/month to replace employer health insurance. I did not model any decrease in that when I become eligible for medicare in about 10 years.

I also did not model any spending flexibility, and I turned off the death toggle.

If I include the possiblity of death, I end up at 100 with 99% of being dead and only 0.2 of broke, so there's that.  :)

if I include 10% spending flexibility, I get to 14% possibility of broke at 100 without side gig, a little less than 6% broke at 100 if I can keep side gig at currrent level until ss kicks in.

If I include 10% flex, and figure health insurance goes from 1k to 500 month when I get medicare, that takes me to 8.5% fail without side gig continuing and only 2.8% broke if side gig continues til I claim ss.

[mistymoney]

If it were me I would prioritize my health and either:

• Take a sabbatical with the plan of going back to work
• FIRE by decreasing my expenses, probably through geoarbitrage

definitely on the table! If I sell my house, I'm in 100% success territory for sure. Of course, never to purchase in higher COL locales again, but that is the plan if things go poorly.

[mistymoney]

Don't know if you have seen this calculator but it was made by the forum's own @CCCA
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

If your job is actually hurting your health I would recommend checking it out to help with your numbers if you haven't already, it might help with perspective.

Here is the forum link for the longer discussion and its iterations. 
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rich-broke-or-dead-visualizing-probabilities-of-outcomes-in-early-retirement/


As others have said, this is not a question with just two possible answers, but almost infinitely many answers.  The worst possible seems to be just sitting where you are for years (!!!!) waiting for more of your life to be over so you can retire.  You don't get any guaranteed time.  Great if you live to 100, you only squandered some.  But don't bet on it. Start living your best life today, even if it is in a different job.

Loren

Yes! that is the one I am using! I love it!!


And - I am modeling to 100. If I only model to 90 - the broke rates are reduced!

[ChpBstrd]

If it were me I would prioritize my health and either:

• Take a sabbatical with the plan of going back to work
• FIRE by decreasing my expenses, probably through geoarbitrage

definitely on the table! If I sell my house, I'm in 100% success territory for sure. Of course, never to purchase in higher COL locales again, but that is the plan if things go poorly.

If it's on the table, why not take the 100% success option? Does it come down to trading the risk of retirement poverty in exchange for living in a HCOL area? Is living HCOL vs. LCOL worth the next 2-5 years?

As a person living in a LCOL area I'm mostly asking because I'm curious. I personally wouldn't work an extra 2-5 years so that I could move to a place where the same real estate is more expensive, but I see LOTs of people doing exactly that so I'm wondering what I'm missing out on.

[mistymoney]

I'd probably quit, continue with the current freelance, and after a couple months of decompressing, start looking for some additional work.  More freelance clients, "barista" FIRE (substitute teaching, dog walking, whatever), or whatever you can find.  Or, if you find that the break has refreshed you, then look for another full time job and use your money to buy you the luxury of not having to take a job that isn't a good fit. 

However, when I gave my notice I'd also offer to continue on part time, on an hourly billed basis for a max of 20 hours a week, at roughly 150% of the current hourly wage (but they will be saving money presumably because your benefits will be cheaper).  Also, if there's any part of the work you especially hate, specify that you won't do that.  Assuming this won't make you miserable, it seems like a great compromise.  And the worst that happens is that they say no, which is fine as you were willing to quit anyway.

I like this option. I'm not sure it would work, but maybe, worth a try. then I have to ask, would I want to do that - continuing on with them on an hourly rate? Will give it some thought.

[wageslave23]

Don't know if you have seen this calculator but it was made by the forum's own @CCCA
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

If your job is actually hurting your health I would recommend checking it out to help with your numbers if you haven't already, it might help with perspective.

Here is the forum link for the longer discussion and its iterations. 
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rich-broke-or-dead-visualizing-probabilities-of-outcomes-in-early-retirement/


As others have said, this is not a question with just two possible answers, but almost infinitely many answers.  The worst possible seems to be just sitting where you are for years (!!!!) waiting for more of your life to be over so you can retire.  You don't get any guaranteed time.  Great if you live to 100, you only squandered some.  But don't bet on it. Start living your best life today, even if it is in a different job.

Loren

Yes! that is the one I am using! I love it!!


And - I am modeling to 100. If I only model to 90 - the broke rates are reduced!

I would do 90.  The difference in your lifestyle when you are 90+ (probably won't live that long), is not worth making your life satisfaction worse now.  I think if you quit now, there are several good outcomes.  1. they give you what you want.  2. you take off for a year and then find a different full time job you enjoy.  3.  you barista fire to a job you enjoy.

[Kem]

My best impact life choices in no particular order

Walking away from 4 year out FIRE when I was at a scant 15% of that magic number from a job that had, due to ownership change crossed well beyond ethical & moral boundaries, and that was severely impacting my health spectrum and relationships.  Then enjoyed a 4-month sabbatical while fielding some lucrative (but dull) and interesting (but not initially lucrative) opportunities.  Realized Coast FI is amazing and I’d rather spend my time chipping away at interesting pursuits and that FI is 99% guaranteed at age 65 should I not toss any more kindling on the stache & should SS fully fail. (icky sentence structure, hopefully isn't overly offending)

Taking ownership and setting plans of my physical health (nutrition & exercise)

Taking ownership and setting plans of my financial health

Changing philosophy towards stoicism & minimalism

Rearing a family

[mistymoney]

If it were me I would prioritize my health and either:

• Take a sabbatical with the plan of going back to work
• FIRE by decreasing my expenses, probably through geoarbitrage

definitely on the table! If I sell my house, I'm in 100% success territory for sure. Of course, never to purchase in higher COL locales again, but that is the plan if things go poorly.

If it's on the table, why not take the 100% success option? Does it come down to trading the risk of retirement poverty in exchange for living in a HCOL area? Is living HCOL vs. LCOL worth the next 2-5 years?

As a person living in a LCOL area I'm mostly asking because I'm curious. I personally wouldn't work an extra 2-5 years so that I could move to a place where the same real estate is more expensive, but I see LOTs of people doing exactly that so I'm wondering what I'm missing out on.

Roots, I guess. Everyone I know is here, family, etc. I'm single so no partner and I'm not sure how I'd even begin to establish a social network somewhere new. I'm not doing that great at it right now, to be honest. It's a hard direction to take, but could be used if needed.

[mistymoney]

My best impact life choices in no particular order

Walking away from 4 year out FIRE when I was at a scant 15% of that magic number from a job that had, due to ownership change crossed well beyond ethical & moral boundaries, and that was severely impacting my health spectrum and relationships.  Then enjoyed a 4-month sabbatical while fielding some lucrative (but dull) and interesting (but not initially lucrative) opportunities.  Realized Coast FI is amazing and I’d rather spend my time chipping away at interesting pursuits and that FI is 99% guaranteed at age 65 should I not toss any more kindling on the stache & should SS fully fail. (icky sentence structure, hopefully isn't overly offending)

Taking ownership and setting plans of my physical health (nutrition & exercise)

Taking ownership and setting plans of my financial health

Changing philosophy towards stoicism & minimalism

Rearing a family

wow - that is awesome that you could do that at 15%. Kudos!

[asauer]

You have alot of options here, not just the ones you presented (it's hard to see the options when you're in it- I know from experience).  So, here's a buffet of options to choose from:

1. Stay where you are and tell your boss that they need to transfer the work since you are not being paid to do it.  You're not getting that raise.  They've had a least one, probably two performance cycles to advocate and get it and they didn't (I'm in HR, I've seen this shit too many times)

2. Leave and take 3-5 months away from corporate to see if you can boost your freelance gig to a level of income you're comfortable with

3. Leave and take a month or two break and then go look for another corporate gig

4. Transfer to another area of the business

5. Work there for another 60 days while building up freelance business income and then make the leap

My HR gut is telling me that you really do need to leave.  And if they give you that raise/promotion know that you won't get another one.

[mistymoney]

ok - thank you all! I think I have my plan. I guess I was hoping for more validation on "Just FiRE it'll be ok", but I guess it is, as I suspected, too iffy at current numbers.

I'm going to take a few weeks/months to get myself and my affairs in order and plan on a 1-2 year sabbatical/trying to see what I can do with the side gig. Wanna get all my medical/dental taken care off, some plumping/electric/roofing repairs and checks, etc. Make sure there isn't anything I'm not aware of that might be a big price tag.

If I can double the side gig, I'm think I'll be good indefinitely. If not but the market does a little bit of bull next year or two, that would also pull me into good territory.

If not, back to the grind for a year or two or maybe I'd be more up to selling the house to not do that or do a more PT job with some benefits until ss kicks in.

Is that plan enough to act on?

[dougules]

I wouldn't take geoarbitrage lightly unless it's somewhere you have experience living in.  You should try it if it sounds like something you'd like, but I would definitely have a plan B to go back so you don't get stuck somewhere you're not happy.  Of course as close as you are to a secure FIRE, that plan B doesn't have to be complicated.  An easy part-time job to get a few thousand dollars a year could easily make up the difference between your current SWR and your spending.  Or you could just do that for coast FIRE now if you have any reservations about moving. 

[mistymoney]

You have alot of options here, not just the ones you presented (it's hard to see the options when you're in it- I know from experience).  So, here's a buffet of options to choose from:

1. Stay where you are and tell your boss that they need to transfer the work since you are not being paid to do it.  You're not getting that raise.  They've had a least one, probably two performance cycles to advocate and get it and they didn't (I'm in HR, I've seen this shit too many times)

2. Leave and take 3-5 months away from corporate to see if you can boost your freelance gig to a level of income you're comfortable with

3. Leave and take a month or two break and then go look for another corporate gig

4. Transfer to another area of the business

5. Work there for another 60 days while building up freelance business income and then make the leap

My HR gut is telling me that you really do need to leave.  And if they give you that raise/promotion know that you won't get another one.

Thank you yes, good insight. I'm usually too in the weeds of the daily demands to think about it, but every time I do, 1-2 months have passed and I count up how many I've been doing this and now it is over a year~ who asks you to do a job for over a year with no recognition/extra pay? while they try to get it "approved". I know they'll find the money when I leave and give it to someone else and it trully pisses me off. I've already done the backbreaking work of getting this department together, revamping programs, streamlining staffing, overseeing increased automation, negotiating very favorable vendor contracts.

But - I need to start letting go of that and just move on. Hopefully, the experience will serve me in some way in another place. 

My freelance work is very niche, and pretty hard to find clients but I do want to try with that more. It's been hard to keep it up with the day job demands, but I've been feeling it's going to be really important to me, and now that's true because it is in my field so I won't be unemployed. It will really help if I go back to anther FT job after a break.

With the side gig and day job, I'm on the verge of having more money per month that I know what to do with, after years of struggling. I'm maxing 401k/HSA, investing in a taxable account, so it is a bit wrenching to pull the plug when I'm so close! It's so frustrating too because I love what I do, I had no thoughts of retiring because I was so fulfilled with work. I was on the verge of making a name for myself in my field. And then they cracked me, and all I can think about is quitting.

ok - so now I will plan on quitting. :)

 

[bmjohnson35]

It is likely you will be fine, regardless what path you take.  We often underestimate our own abilities to overcome the challenges of life.  Too many people live in fear of "what if".  It's really simple .....evaluate your situation, develop a plan and execute the plan.  If the plan doesn't play out like you thought it would, you adjust or change the plan and then repeat.   

[wageslave23]

You have alot of options here, not just the ones you presented (it's hard to see the options when you're in it- I know from experience).  So, here's a buffet of options to choose from:

1. Stay where you are and tell your boss that they need to transfer the work since you are not being paid to do it.  You're not getting that raise.  They've had a least one, probably two performance cycles to advocate and get it and they didn't (I'm in HR, I've seen this shit too many times)

2. Leave and take 3-5 months away from corporate to see if you can boost your freelance gig to a level of income you're comfortable with

3. Leave and take a month or two break and then go look for another corporate gig

4. Transfer to another area of the business

5. Work there for another 60 days while building up freelance business income and then make the leap

My HR gut is telling me that you really do need to leave.  And if they give you that raise/promotion know that you won't get another one.

Thank you yes, good insight. I'm usually too in the weeds of the daily demands to think about it, but every time I do, 1-2 months have passed and I count up how many I've been doing this and now it is over a year~ who asks you to do a job for over a year with no recognition/extra pay? while they try to get it "approved". I know they'll find the money when I leave and give it to someone else and it trully pisses me off. I've already done the backbreaking work of getting this department together, revamping programs, streamlining staffing, overseeing increased automation, negotiating very favorable vendor contracts.

But - I need to start letting go of that and just move on. Hopefully, the experience will serve me in some way in another place. 

My freelance work is very niche, and pretty hard to find clients but I do want to try with that more. It's been hard to keep it up with the day job demands, but I've been feeling it's going to be really important to me, and now that's true because it is in my field so I won't be unemployed. It will really help if I go back to anther FT job after a break.

With the side gig and day job, I'm on the verge of having more money per month that I know what to do with, after years of struggling. I'm maxing 401k/HSA, investing in a taxable account, so it is a bit wrenching to pull the plug when I'm so close! It's so frustrating too because I love what I do, I had no thoughts of retiring because I was so fulfilled with work. I was on the verge of making a name for myself in my field. And then they cracked me, and all I can think about is quitting.

ok - so now I will plan on quitting. :)

It sounds like the problems at your job are fixable.  Go in there with a level head and talk to them honestly about what you like and dislike and tell them that you are planning on leaving unless they fix the things that need to change.  If they say they will make the changes, then tell them you need a definitive timeline (not more than 3 months) for when the changes will take place.  If at anytime, you don't like what you hear or are not seeing change, then leave. 

[Villanelle]

I'd probably quit, continue with the current freelance, and after a couple months of decompressing, start looking for some additional work.  More freelance clients, "barista" FIRE (substitute teaching, dog walking, whatever), or whatever you can find.  Or, if you find that the break has refreshed you, then look for another full time job and use your money to buy you the luxury of not having to take a job that isn't a good fit. 

However, when I gave my notice I'd also offer to continue on part time, on an hourly billed basis for a max of 20 hours a week, at roughly 150% of the current hourly wage (but they will be saving money presumably because your benefits will be cheaper).  Also, if there's any part of the work you especially hate, specify that you won't do that.  Assuming this won't make you miserable, it seems like a great compromise.  And the worst that happens is that they say no, which is fine as you were willing to quit anyway.

I like this option. I'm not sure it would work, but maybe, worth a try. then I have to ask, would I want to do that - continuing on with them on an hourly rate? Will give it some thought.

For me, it would be worth it for  the peace of mind (since you aren't quiiiite comfortable with your stashe).  Clearly it's a personal question, but it sounds like your actual work functions aren't the part you hate.  It's being jerked around and undervalued.  Once that aspect goes away, all that's left is the work functions (and at about half the time as before).  I did something sort of similar, though I left for a different job but agreed to stay on on an hourly basis to see them through a transition of a few months.  I found at as soon as I gave the notice, everything just felt better.  And since they were paying my hourly (and at a higher rate), they only had me do my work.  No stupid meetings, no silly admin stuff.  Even though it was exactly the same role I had before quitting, it felt like an entirely different job.  I came in, I did what needed to be done, and I left. 

Of course, it was not an entirely toxic workplace, and I didn't mind the work itself.  I just felt underpaid, under-valued, and unchallenged.  The shift changed the first two, and touched on the third because the tedium associated with filling out the weekly tracker so we could all sit in a meeting and hear everyone then read their weekly tracker and expand upon stuff that had nothing to do with most of the other people in the meeting--that was gone. So the work felt less onerous and boring because I was truly busy and making meaningful progress during the hours I was working.   

And the other thing is that if you make an arrangement, you can dictate whatever terms you like.  Absolutely no work on Fridays.  Someone else needs to fill out the TPS reports.  When you work with accounting, you will work with anyone but Bob.   Whatever makes it work for you.  And if you still hate it, you can quit again, all the way this time.    Even if you only do it for a few months while they hire for your position and then train the new person, that's thousands of dollars more in your stashe. 

[Kem]

wow - that is awesome that you could do that at 15%. Kudos!

A healthy cash EF softened the blow - and with such a high savings rate knowing that even a fairly low income would cover expenses helped.

[mistymoney]

and of course - the minute I say yes to quitting, on a definite timeline, the stache becomes noticeably lighter on which to calculate my odds. sp down 0.75% yesterday, and over 1% for the week.

Ya - likely just the usual noise, but when you are plotting with every penny and hoping for a little bump up to make the odds better, a tiny dip hurts a little more.

oh.....this is going to be tough for me emotionally! And yes - as I've been thinking I need to make an exit, I've been watching the market multiple times a day.

[Kem]

May I suggest unplugging from checking on short term market fluctuations at this stage.  A 1% dip is nothing.  Heck a 10% dip is a frequent enough occurrence.  No need to let statistics and market emotions impact your mental well being.

I mean, if the market tanks 40% you're talking about sequence of return risk.   

You can accept this with a plan to earn some amount of income in the future as is - in a near worst case scenario.   

Assuming this is in a taxable account, you could grab a low interest margin on 20% of the accounts balance and now the drag on returns is minimal and partially offset by no tax consequence.... Then live off the margin for the next few years - and not even look at market news (fear mongering media) until then.   Then, in future years once the account is worth some % above your withdrawal rate level pay the margin back in drips during market surges...or....dont.

[henramdrea]

and of course - the minute I say yes to quitting, on a definite timeline, the stache becomes noticeably lighter on which to calculate my odds. sp down 0.75% yesterday, and over 1% for the week.

Ya - likely just the usual noise, but when you are plotting with every penny and hoping for a little bump up to make the odds better, a tiny dip hurts a little more.

oh.....this is going to be tough for me emotionally! And yes - as I've been thinking I need to make an exit, I've been watching the market multiple times a day.

I feel your pain.  These aren't easy decisions to make.  Sometimes perspective helps.  Look at the pros and cons of staying in a position you just don't love anymore and weigh those against the pros and cons of FIRE on an uncertain stache.  Do you value your mental and physical health?  Do you think once you've FIRE'd that you'd have more control over your future and your direction for the rest of your life?  I think you might agree that you being in control of your financial destiny vs. leaving it to a fickle employer is the less-stressful option.  Also, (just a word to you and I both here) stop looking at your investments so often.  The stock market goes up/the stock market goes down.  Unless you're a day-trader, don't bother with it, don't worry about it, don't look at it.  You've invested for the longer haul, peeking every day at your investments just adds to stress.

Best wishes to you.  You're in an enviable position!  You've got great options and I'm sure in a year you'll look back at all of this and wonder why there was all the hand-wringing and why you didn't jump sooner.

[mistymoney]

May I suggest unplugging from checking on short term market fluctuations at this stage.  A 1% dip is nothing.  Heck a 10% dip is a frequent enough occurrence.  No need to let statistics and market emotions impact your mental well being.

I mean, if the market tanks 40% you're talking about sequence of return risk.   

You can accept this with a plan to earn some amount of income in the future as is - in a near worst case scenario.   

Assuming this is in a taxable account, you could grab a low interest margin on 20% of the accounts balance and now the drag on returns is minimal and partially offset by no tax consequence.... Then live off the margin for the next few years - and not even look at market news (fear mongering media) until then.   Then, in future years once the account is worth some % above your withdrawal rate level pay the margin back in drips during market surges...or....dont.

Thank you, yes, I need to get out of my head about this a bit. I guess I am too much focused on - is this the best move for me at all stages of my life from here on out or will I look back at 5 or 10 years and call it a huge mistake - rather than just another fork in the path of many many forks both before and after this. SORR I guess is what my OP was all about. Given where I am at to quit this job and given the uncertain state of the world, how do I be ok with potential future economic negatives. and the worry that they could be very long lasting.

I guess it is something to be dealt with on an emotional level, and I will need to think on this aspect and mediate a bit on who I am and where I am at and what I want my life to look like outside of pursuing economic security which is currently taking quite a toll.

[mistymoney]

and of course - the minute I say yes to quitting, on a definite timeline, the stache becomes noticeably lighter on which to calculate my odds. sp down 0.75% yesterday, and over 1% for the week.

Ya - likely just the usual noise, but when you are plotting with every penny and hoping for a little bump up to make the odds better, a tiny dip hurts a little more.

oh.....this is going to be tough for me emotionally! And yes - as I've been thinking I need to make an exit, I've been watching the market multiple times a day.

I feel your pain.  These aren't easy decisions to make.  Sometimes perspective helps. Look at the pros and cons of staying in a position you just don't love anymore and weigh those against the pros and cons of FIRE on an uncertain stache.  Do you value your mental and physical health?  Do you think once you've FIRE'd that you'd have more control over your future and your direction for the rest of your life?  I think you might agree that you being in control of your financial destiny vs. leaving it to a fickle employer is the less-stressful option.  Also, (just a word to you and I both here) stop looking at your investments so often.  The stock market goes up/the stock market goes down.  Unless you're a day-trader, don't bother with it, don't worry about it, don't look at it.  You've invested for the longer haul, peeking every day at your investments just adds to stress.

Best wishes to you.  You're in an enviable position!  You've got great options and I'm sure in a year you'll look back at all of this and wonder why there was all the hand-wringing and why you didn't jump sooner.

wise and kind words, very much appreciated.

I think I will set about wirting up the pros and cons tomorrow. Be very concrete and tactile on it rather than just thinking/worrying. Try to get as emoationally distant from the job as I can and focus on myself, my health and well being, and see how far I can get as I start to lay the ground work for being able to walk away - maybe some work-related groundwork - cleaning up files and projects, but mostly personal, getting myself and possessions in order, guarding against immediate unexpected things, taking care of maintenance for health, house, care, etc.

[Villanelle]

May I suggest unplugging from checking on short term market fluctuations at this stage.  A 1% dip is nothing.  Heck a 10% dip is a frequent enough occurrence.  No need to let statistics and market emotions impact your mental well being.

I mean, if the market tanks 40% you're talking about sequence of return risk.   

You can accept this with a plan to earn some amount of income in the future as is - in a near worst case scenario.   

Assuming this is in a taxable account, you could grab a low interest margin on 20% of the accounts balance and now the drag on returns is minimal and partially offset by no tax consequence.... Then live off the margin for the next few years - and not even look at market news (fear mongering media) until then.   Then, in future years once the account is worth some % above your withdrawal rate level pay the margin back in drips during market surges...or....dont.

Thank you, yes, I need to get out of my head about this a bit. I guess I am too much focused on - is this the best move for me at all stages of my life from here on out or will I look back at 5 or 10 years and call it a huge mistake - rather than just another fork in the path of many many forks both before and after this. SORR I guess is what my OP was all about. Given where I am at to quit this job and given the uncertain state of the world, how do I be ok with potential future economic negatives. and the worry that they could be very long lasting.

I guess it is something to be dealt with on an emotional level, and I will need to think on this aspect and mediate a bit on who I am and where I am at and what I want my life to look like outside of pursuing economic security which is currently taking quite a toll.

For me, the answer to this would a careful balance of planning but not over planning for eventualities.  Knowing some of the many things I could do to make a modest amount of cash to supplement myself through a down market would probably be enough to ease my mind.  "If the shit hits the NYSE fan, I will sign up to be a substitute teacher--and I've checked that I'm qualified after taking a test that is offered monthly--and will also dog walk and pet sit because there seems to be a market for that.  I can reasonably expect to make at least a few thousand dollars a year and likely much more doing that, even in a downturn."  Okay, great.  Now I know that if the main plan of just quitting doesn't work out, I have a cushion.  But that's how my brain works.  I need to plan for the first couple most likely eventualities and I find comfort in that because I know those eventualities are addressable in a feasible way.  And then I can kind of let that go.

[Kem]

"SORR I guess is what my OP was all about. Given where I am at to quit this job and given the uncertain state of the world, how do I be ok with potential future economic negatives"

The fear of the unknown is not something that goes away.  Will you allow this fear to take driver seat, or plan for a few eventualities that you can exert a measure of control?  You believe have enough to RE now, but you may want not view failure to persist all future years as RE as a 100% failure:  be open to taking on some low stress part time income opportunities in a near term market downturn or consider near term SORR mitigation strategies.

Finally, is the mental and physical impact of your current life weighter than the fear of the unknown?

[BicycleB]

Hi @mistymoney. Your position is similar to mine, probably stronger (based on the 1k/month for heath ins; I have nothing like that. Also my housing budget and stash are lower, by the sound of it). 6 years FIREd now. I think you'll be fine if you quit.

Do I think keeping the side gig and seeking improved work conditions are good moves? Absolutely. Heck, I intend at some point to pick up some earned income myself, I just never get around to it! :) 

Finding the courage will be the hardest part. Plan enough scenarios to know what you're doing, sure. Adjust details such as portfolio allocation, you bet. But at some point you simply make the decision. That's what will free you.

You have a finite number of days left on this glorious earth. You're now in charge of what they're like.

[mistymoney]

Hi @mistymoney. Your position is similar to mine, probably stronger (based on the 1k/month for heath ins; I have nothing like that. Also my housing budget and stash are lower, by the sound of it). 6 years FIREd now. I think you'll be fine if you quit.

Do I think keeping the side gig and seeking improved work conditions are good moves? Absolutely. Heck, I intend at some point to pick up some earned income myself, I just never get around to it! :) 

Finding the courage will be the hardest part. Plan enough scenarios to know what you're doing, sure. Adjust details such as portfolio allocation, you bet. But at some point you simply make the decision. That's what will free you.

You have a finite number of days left on this glorious earth. You're now in charge of what they're like.

Very big picture - thank you. That needs to be my focus. I've worked very hard for many years and made a lot of sacrifices for the stache. Now - I have options and my goal is to pick a good one. :)

And work on knowing nothing is perfect, there is no perfect decision or path. just options to choose based on what I think is best for me right now. And then going down that path, never knowing what the others may have brought so never knowing what was "Best".

It's a bit freeing to reframe it that way, at least for me.

[BicycleB]

Hi @mistymoney. Your position is similar to mine, probably stronger (based on the 1k/month for heath ins; I have nothing like that. Also my housing budget and stash are lower, by the sound of it). 6 years FIREd now. I think you'll be fine if you quit.

Do I think keeping the side gig and seeking improved work conditions are good moves? Absolutely. Heck, I intend at some point to pick up some earned income myself, I just never get around to it! :) 

Finding the courage will be the hardest part. Plan enough scenarios to know what you're doing, sure. Adjust details such as portfolio allocation, you bet. But at some point you simply make the decision. That's what will free you.

You have a finite number of days left on this glorious earth. You're now in charge of what they're like.

Very big picture - thank you. That needs to be my focus. I've worked very hard for many years and made a lot of sacrifices for the stache. Now - I have options and my goal is to pick a good one. :)

And work on knowing nothing is perfect, there is no perfect decision or path. just options to choose based on what I think is best for me right now. And then going down that path, never knowing what the others may have brought so never knowing what was "Best".

It's a bit freeing to reframe it that way, at least for me.

I like your reframe a lot!

Related thoughts:

1. When you're choosing among good options, the choice you make will be good.
2. Once you make a good choice, it's your implementation (your living of it) that matters.
3. Even if there are flaws in your choice or it's not "best", your own actions along the way can make something good out of it.
4. In short, since you're starting from such a high level, you are likely to be unstoppable now. Go enjoy.
5. Same as above: Now you're resilient, maybe even antifragile. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile

[hoodedfalcon]

I can so relate to what you are struggling with! And for what it's worth, I decided to pull the plug and take the leap. I just had no more juice, ya know? But I did have a year of cash and 75% of the stash I was hoping for when I FIREd. So I am calling this a sabbatical, to reevaluate when I have the time and brain space to think. I have faith in myself that I won't let myself fail, but I don't even know how that would be defined anyway.

I feel like you will be fine. The status quo is so dang captivating...but I bet there have been times in your life when you decided to just do a thing and the thing turning into a new thing and then you can't even remember how you got to where you are but it doesn't matter because it was all just life and we are compelled to live it.