Author Topic: Avoiding short-timer's syndrome  (Read 4580 times)

YHD

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Avoiding short-timer's syndrome
« on: November 26, 2013, 10:53:29 AM »
Hi, all,

First post.  Avidly reading "what's your  number" and related threads on "why to retire"...the market updraft has allowed us to reach 25x projected retirement spending.  I would have preferred to reach 25x spending during a down or level market to make that 25x more robust.  I have committed to working another 5 years to FIRE-proof that number.  But just having reached it, psychologically, this has resulted in me pulling back at work and, in the desire to save more.  I have senioritis and I don't think it is healthy for my job or for FIRE.

How do / should I re-engage?

odput

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Re: Avoiding short-timer's syndrome
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2013, 11:21:23 AM »
I would try to find a project that you are passionate about and focus your efforts on that.  Since you have fuck you money, when your work asks you to get involved on a project you don't want to work on, you can turn it down (and if they say you have to work on it then you can say fuck you, politely or otherwise, however you wish) and focus on closing out the stuff you are working on, then only take on new work that you really want to.

If you are worried about market performance, this sounds like the perfect situation for a side hustle.  If you have anything that can earn you a few thousand dollars per year, this can greatly impact your safety in the event of a downturn.  No one can accurately predict if a downturn is in the cards soon, but by making a little money each year, you are withdrawing less from your accounts and effectively lowering your withdrawal rate.

Good luck and do let us know how this plays out!

YHD

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Re: Avoiding short-timer's syndrome
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2013, 05:26:20 PM »
Thanks, Odput.

Good advice on finding a project that gets my juices going.  Alternative and preferable to a side hustle is cutting back from full time to part time.  Doing so would allow me to focus on the parts of the job that I can leave behind when I go home.  More lucrative, less hustle.

Nords

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Re: Avoiding short-timer's syndrome
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2013, 06:25:46 PM »
First post.  Avidly reading "what's your  number" and related threads on "why to retire"...the market updraft has allowed us to reach 25x projected retirement spending.  I would have preferred to reach 25x spending during a down or level market to make that 25x more robust.  I have committed to working another 5 years to FIRE-proof that number.  But just having reached it, psychologically, this has resulted in me pulling back at work and, in the desire to save more.  I have senioritis and I don't think it is healthy for my job or for FIRE.
You need to figure out what the heck you're doing.

I could understand this attitude if you're locked in by restricted stock shares or some other vesting scheme (like a military pension).  I see that issue all the time with U.S. military servicemembers.  But you appear to be able to invest your existing assets in an allocation that has a reasonable chance (80%-95%) of supporting a 4% safe withdrawal rate right now.  Instead you've elected to keep slugging away until you have a 100.000001% success rate on that SWR.  25x is a threshold for inflation-adjusted spending, but the reality is that you're going to vary your spending:  more when you're feeling the wealth effect and less when the market is in a recession.  It's human behavioral psychology, not just math.

If you feel that the market is overvalued for your risk level, then change your risk level.  Sell some of your asset allocation, raise cash, and have 2-3 years of spending in CDs.  Or buy an annuity to support 25%-50% of your spending.  That way you can lock in some of today's gains and stop worrying about valuations for (at least) a few years.  Or decide on a variable-spending plan like Bob Clyatt's 4%/95% system or Bud Hebeler's negative-feedback system to guide you through volatility. 

I understand that market valuations matter, and that there's sequence of returns risk.  But instead of setting some arbitrary prison sentence to "FIREproof" yourself, you should reduce your market exposure so that the sequence of returns can't keep you awake all night.  Otherwise you're going to infect yourself with a mean case of "Just one more year!" syndrome.

As for "figure out" tactics, you could start with a few weeks of vacation to reconsider your plans and your spreadsheets. 

http://the-military-guide.com/2011/01/06/the-fog-of-work/

dude

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Re: Avoiding short-timer's syndrome
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2013, 06:31:39 AM »
That's good stuff, Nords.  I've got 5 to go until eligibility for a Fed LEO pension, but plan to go 7 more (2 past eligibility) unless we are in a sustained bull market through the next 5 years (if the nest egg was sufficient at that point, I'd roll).  Even with 5 years to go, there are days when I'm feeling a little like a short-timer, but that is generally during the occasional lull.  When I'm busy, I don't much think about it.  But man, I have thought many times about what kind of mindset I'm going to have when I cross that line in 5 years and can walk any day after that if I want.  Continuing on another 2 years is either gonna really suck, or it's going to be very liberating. I won't know until I get there though, so it's nose to the grindstone until then!