There is a great reward in the feeling that you're going to have a comfortable retirement. Good work in planning it right. I don't know if your home is paid off, but you can look forward to that expense dropping when the last mortgage bill is sent. There's always downsizing options if finances get tough. It seems like some folks on this board have seen their investments go up faster than they are drawing down.
Thanks, it does feel good after close to 30 years of work. I didn't think I'd get anywhere close by my early 50s, but I finally paid off my house and got hold of my spending about 5 years ago. The market has been extraordinarily good the last few years after I saw almost no returns through the 2000s.
I was rechecking my total assets needed in the OP and I made an error in the amount. It should be $918k and I'll have to edit the post to reflect that. Thankfully I still have enough assets to cover it. In essence, adding in SS increases the effective safe withdrawal rate at the start of my retirement to about 4.6%, given the starting parameters and assumptions.
I think that firecalc is a good model to stress test your assets. I know the past doesn't guarantee future results, but if my portfolio and planned spending would never have failed in all the poor markets of the past, then I will take that as confirmation that I'm FI - especially since I can modify my spending habits if I need to.
Two additional things to consider...
1. You assume that ACA type coverage will continue to be available. In our current political environment that may be a big assumption.
2. You don’t leave anything for end of life care. If you’re happy with being dumped in a nursing home that accepts Medicaid payment then fine, otherwise maybe you want to put aside an extra $200k or so for that.
Yes, I assume ACA will still be available. I could be wrong, but uncertainty in the ACA would not keep me from retiring. I am single and own my home, so I could use my house for my end of life needs. An extra $200k would come in handy, both for end of life or as a general emergency fund! Right now I'm over $100k of my baseline FI, but how big of an emergency fund I need/want is what keeps me working.
I do have kids, but their education expenses are already taken care of separate from my retirement assets. This will actually help me because as they leave the nest my expenses will go down - another built in safety factor.
More importantly though, I don't see me retiring and doing nothing. I've worked too long to just sit around all day long. I envision taking a year or so off to do things I want to do and then going back to work. I look at the assets built up as giving me the opportunity to pursue other interests. It's more burnout that I'm retiring from, not work. Knowing that my finances are taken care of and I can be choosy in what I do in the future is what really motivates me.
OP also look at 72t withdrawals. That could allow you to withdraw from your 401k assets early and let the Roth continue to grow tax free. I would never recommend it for someone younger, but since you're in your early 50s and sound like you plan to work for awhile it's an option. Also if you continue to work (not that I'm encouraging you to wait) until the year you turn 55 you can get to 401k money with your current employer without penalty.
Both these options are very rule bound so investigate carefully if they sound of interest.
Thanks for the tip Catbert. I have looked into 72T but as I understand it I could not stop taking it if I wished to go back to work, which I probably will. I know I would be losing a lot of Roth space by using the principal in my 50s, but right now it looks to be the best alternative. I definitely would use my taxable investments prior to using the Roth.
I am aware of the 55 rule and that is another thing I keep in the back of my mind. There are a lot of dates and milestones that I am keeping track of right now, but the bottom line for me is making the most of the rest of my life.
I am really thankful for all the information that is available here and on the internet in general. I read MMM's blog the first time about 5 years ago and that was one of the main motivators for me, especially the 4% blog post. That was like a light bulb going off in my head when I read that!
Also, keeping a detailed expense spreadsheet for the last 5 years gives me confidence that the numbers I'm using are good. I think I have enough alternatives right now so that I can do whatever I choose from here on out and money will not be the deciding factor. Yay!