Author Topic: Are jobs really getting worse?  (Read 13086 times)

TempusFugit

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Are jobs really getting worse?
« on: November 27, 2019, 01:38:40 PM »
Stumbled upon this article whilst pretending to work at the office this morning. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/american-jobs-are-getting-worse-a-new-index-shows/ar-BBXpfR1

It seems to me that this is a bit of statistical misuse.   The gist of it is that the ratio of new jobs paying less than average to new jobs paying more than average is showing that the economy is now more bad jobs than good ones. 

Would it not be expected, however, that as workers are brought into the workforce during a period of historically low unemployment - meaning that there are fewer and fewer candidates for any job - you are almost by definition largely pulling from a pool of, shall we say, less employable people?   

I realize that the unemployment numbers (3.6% currently) could be a bit misleading, but even so, the general trend is clear.  If you have 100 people looking for work and you've got 96 of them picked for 'teams' to use an analogy, doesn't it make sense that those last 4 are probably not anyone's best candidates?  Does it not then follow that the type of job for which those dwindling few are chosen are most likely skewed toward the lower end?   

In other words, it seems to me that this is simply the logical result of a full employment scenario. It isn't a commentary so much on the possible jobs in our economy, but rather the jobs that are possible for the available candidates to fill them. 





BDWW

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2019, 02:02:09 PM »
A commonly heard refrain I hear is "no/not enough qualified candidates," so it would make sense. Personally, trying to hire skilled workers(engineers) for our company is difficult because you currently, basically , have to poach.   It's not like there are bunch of skilled engineers sitting on the sidelines.

Additionally, service/entry level jobs around here go unfulfilled because unemployment is so low. The city has actually discussed funding bus services to outlying areas to try and pull more service level workers in.

mathlete

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2019, 03:05:36 PM »
Here's a presentation slide deck for the new metric form the guys who made it:

https://www.slideshare.net/secret/Kl9EQz61ubz6Zt

Slide 14 is a pretty good representation of what they're trying to quantify. Over a 29 year observational period, food service employment increase by 65% while manufacturing employment fell by 30%. Manufacturing work pays higher wages. Probably has higher union participation and better benefits too.

Skimming over the slides and research, this looks in part to be proxy for (or driver of?) income inequality.

Here's a chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, that uses CBO data:



High income households are growing their incomes much faster than everyone else. This means a widening gap between means and medians, another indicator of inequality.

Cpa Cat

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2019, 03:10:38 PM »
The people who put together this Index clearly know more about the labor market than I do. I was going through their slide deck from their website and one fact that they had there was that overall self-employment has declined as well, and that it's heavily focused in older workers now.

I thought that was interesting, because a worker is far more likely to be paid a higher/living wage in a service-based industry if they are self-employed. I'm curious why younger generations are less inclined to be self-employed than older generations.

In my own business, which services self-employed individuals primarily, I see the opposite - I have more millennials as clients than non-millenials. But that's anecdotal, I suppose. It just seems like millennials are less satisfied with the "status quo" of low paid service jobs and are more inclined to start their own business. However, the experts in the article are Cornell University labor market experts, so I'm not saying they're wrong. :)

I also found the statistics a bit misleading. It suggests that good jobs are somehow shrinking, but in fact, low paid jobs are just growing faster. But they are both growing. What if it's turning out that way because every 1 Good Job supports spending for 2 Bad Jobs, because good jobs generate demand for low-wage service based work. Like, they specifically say on their site that food-service jobs are one of the fastest growing sectors. So that means there's more demand for restaurants. I look at this way: My 1 Good Accountant Job generates demand for 0.5 Lawn Care Workers, 0.5 House Cleaners, 0.5 Restaurant Workers and 0.25 Grocery Guy Whose Only Job is to Get my Groceries Ready for Pickup. While I'm at it, I employ 1 relatively low-paid part-time Office Assistant and 1 medium-paid accountant. So just by being a Well-Paid Accountant, I skewed this statistic in favor of low-paid part-time jobs, because I have more money than time.

NorCal

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2019, 03:15:07 PM »
This is a stupid statistic.

During the last economic cycle, the low wage jobs (on average) were the first to be eliminated.  Many of these jobs never came back.

We're finally at the point in the economic cycle where the lower wage jobs are actually starting to come back, which is really driving the unemployment rate down, and driving the labor participation rate up.

Trying to portray this as some economic decline is just more stupid clickbait.

Cpa Cat

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2019, 03:38:37 PM »
Here's another example:

I know a very good realtor who makes loads of money. She employs 4 older women between the ages of 62 and 67 who all want to earn less than $17,000 per year so that their Social Security doesn't get compromised. None of them have significant enough retirement savings to retire fully and all need to pay for health insurance until they become eligible for Medicare. The health insurance cost is their #1 reason for not being able to fully retire.

This realtor is destroying this metric. It looks terrible. She created 4 part-time, low-wage jobs that don't pay people enough to live off of. Meanwhile, she is highly compensated.

But is it bad?

If it is, it's a problem that started decades ago and results from low retirement savings for women of that generation, combined with a broken and unaffordable healthcare system, and in the case of two of them, poor lifelong health choices that have now made it difficult to work full-time.

But the jobs themselves are not "bad." They are exactly what those four women need and want, given their circumstances.

TempusFugit

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 03:55:56 PM »
Here's another example:

I know a very good realtor who makes loads of money. She employs 4 older women between the ages of 62 and 67 who all want to earn less than $17,000 per year so that their Social Security doesn't get compromised. None of them have significant enough retirement savings to retire fully and all need to pay for health insurance until they become eligible for Medicare. The health insurance cost is their #1 reason for not being able to fully retire.

This realtor is destroying this metric. It looks terrible. She created 4 part-time, low-wage jobs that don't pay people enough to live off of. Meanwhile, she is highly compensated.

But is it bad?

If it is, it's a problem that started decades ago and results from low retirement savings for women of that generation, combined with a broken and unaffordable healthcare system, and in the case of two of them, poor lifelong health choices that have now made it difficult to work full-time.

But the jobs themselves are not "bad." They are exactly what those four women need and want, given their circumstances.

I think this is an excellent example that illustrates how misguided the 'living wage' militants are.  Not every job should pay a living wage.  There are some jobs that just aren't that valuable to an employer and there are some employees that are perfectly happy with a job that would not, by itself, support them fully. 

That doesn't make them 'bad' jobs, just jobs that are on the margins of value to everyone involved.   If we forced every employer to pay a 'living wage' to every employee, these jobs would simply vanish, which would be a net loss to everyone.

In general I like your point about high wage jobs having a multiplying effect on lower wage jobs due to the increased demand they can generate.  Seems like a very good way to look at it.  I know my high wage job certainly increases demand for restaurant workers : )

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2019, 05:26:22 PM »
Here's another example:

I know a very good realtor who makes loads of money. She employs 4 older women between the ages of 62 and 67 who all want to earn less than $17,000 per year so that their Social Security doesn't get compromised. None of them have significant enough retirement savings to retire fully and all need to pay for health insurance until they become eligible for Medicare. The health insurance cost is their #1 reason for not being able to fully retire.

This realtor is destroying this metric. It looks terrible. She created 4 part-time, low-wage jobs that don't pay people enough to live off of. Meanwhile, she is highly compensated.

But is it bad?

If it is, it's a problem that started decades ago and results from low retirement savings for women of that generation, combined with a broken and unaffordable healthcare system, and in the case of two of them, poor lifelong health choices that have now made it difficult to work full-time.

But the jobs themselves are not "bad." They are exactly what those four women need and want, given their circumstances.

I’m not one for howling “sexist” about laws. This is one exception. If you are less than 67 and drawing Social Security, you cannot earn more than $17k per year. If you do your SS is reduced by 50 cents for every dollar you earn above $17k. It’s effectively a 50% plus tax rate imposed on working class retirees. It’s particularly pernicious for women who typically have less lifetime earnings and thus lower social security payments and lower outside retirement savings.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2019, 12:42:09 AM »
I think as markets become more competitive (with technology/globalisation growing the base of the pyramid), t is natural that jobs at the top pay more and jobs at the bottom pay less.


former player

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2019, 02:38:09 AM »
So are the jobs created by the realtor low wage per hour or higher wage and low hours? There is a significant difference, of which an early retirement forum should be cogniscent.  $17k per year for one or two days a week would be a good or reasonable wage.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2019, 05:03:17 AM »
I think it's becoming increasingly difficult to easily be a good employee.  Companies are more difficult to navigate as an employee than ever before.  It seems that the need for customer service skills/people skills and tech skills are climbing in even the most simple of jobs.

Another metric is worker productivity; afaik productivity has been climbing away which means workers have to be faster, more decisive, and with tighter margins surrounding their jobs.

Just a hunch.  Moore's law is hitting a wall, and so too is the human equivalent.

Viking Thor

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2019, 07:35:54 AM »
Here's another example:

I know a very good realtor who makes loads of money. She employs 4 older women between the ages of 62 and 67 who all want to earn less than $17,000 per year so that their Social Security doesn't get compromised. None of them have significant enough retirement savings to retire fully and all need to pay for health insurance until they become eligible for Medicare. The health insurance cost is their #1 reason for not being able to fully retire.

This realtor is destroying this metric. It looks terrible. She created 4 part-time, low-wage jobs that don't pay people enough to live off of. Meanwhile, she is highly compensated.

But is it bad?

If it is, it's a problem that started decades ago and results from low retirement savings for women of that generation, combined with a broken and unaffordable healthcare system, and in the case of two of them, poor lifelong health choices that have now made it difficult to work full-time.

But the jobs themselves are not "bad." They are exactly what those four women need and want, given their circumstances.

I’m not one for howling “sexist” about laws. This is one exception. If you are less than 67 and drawing Social Security, you cannot earn more than $17k per year. If you do your SS is reduced by 50 cents for every dollar you earn above $17k. It’s effectively a 50% plus tax rate imposed on working class retirees. It’s particularly pernicious for women who typically have less lifetime earnings and thus lower social security payments and lower outside retirement savings.

That's not how it works, the benefits that are reduced prior to full retirement age are made up for when you reach full retirement age, as the benefit is recalculated to make up for the earlier reductions.

So the reduction is only temporary and benefits are made up later

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2019, 08:57:25 AM »
Here's another example:

I know a very good realtor who makes loads of money. She employs 4 older women between the ages of 62 and 67 who all want to earn less than $17,000 per year so that their Social Security doesn't get compromised. None of them have significant enough retirement savings to retire fully and all need to pay for health insurance until they become eligible for Medicare. The health insurance cost is their #1 reason for not being able to fully retire.

This realtor is destroying this metric. It looks terrible. She created 4 part-time, low-wage jobs that don't pay people enough to live off of. Meanwhile, she is highly compensated.

But is it bad?

If it is, it's a problem that started decades ago and results from low retirement savings for women of that generation, combined with a broken and unaffordable healthcare system, and in the case of two of them, poor lifelong health choices that have now made it difficult to work full-time.

But the jobs themselves are not "bad." They are exactly what those four women need and want, given their circumstances.

I’m not one for howling “sexist” about laws. This is one exception. If you are less than 67 and drawing Social Security, you cannot earn more than $17k per year. If you do your SS is reduced by 50 cents for every dollar you earn above $17k. It’s effectively a 50% plus tax rate imposed on working class retirees. It’s particularly pernicious for women who typically have less lifetime earnings and thus lower social security payments and lower outside retirement savings.

That's not how it works, the benefits that are reduced prior to full retirement age are made up for when you reach full retirement age, as the benefit is recalculated to make up for the earlier reductions.

So the reduction is only temporary and benefits are made up later

The devil is in the details. IF you are in the unfortunate position of having to live on SS as of age 62, you’re going to have a lower benefit over your lifespan. There are some provisions where you can reverse the election within the first year if memory serves. Yes, reduced SS due to earnings above the 17k threshold can be restored once you attain full retirement age (67) and over a space of up to 15 years. And most importantly that’s only if you’re not receiving SS spouse or survivor benefits. Rather, you’re receiving benefits based on your own earnings. Guess what gender those people are who receive spouse and survivor benefits tend to be?

LaineyAZ

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2019, 09:40:04 AM »
I'd like to comment on the aspect of employers training workers.

When I first started at my MegaCorp job in the mid-1990s, my older co-workers clearly recalled a time when the company would hire people and train them.   One example: a young guy who was hired to sweep floors in the lab area was then taught various aspects of the lab tech job.  He eventually became head of the lab area.  He didn't have a degree when he started, but he was given a chance. 
Today, there's little to no job opportunities like that. (of course, janitorial services, etc. are outsourced).  Now, she or he would be required to have a degree and some experience before they even applied, even for very basic positions. 

My point:  employers complain constantly that applicants are "not qualified" but how much do they do to give newer or younger applicants a chance to get experience?  IMO employers are in a position to fix this problem but don't want to spend any time or money doing so.

TempusFugit

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2019, 09:59:52 AM »
I'd like to comment on the aspect of employers training workers.

When I first started at my MegaCorp job in the mid-1990s, my older co-workers clearly recalled a time when the company would hire people and train them.   One example: a young guy who was hired to sweep floors in the lab area was then taught various aspects of the lab tech job.  He eventually became head of the lab area.  He didn't have a degree when he started, but he was given a chance. 
Today, there's little to no job opportunities like that. (of course, janitorial services, etc. are outsourced).  Now, she or he would be required to have a degree and some experience before they even applied, even for very basic positions. 

My point:  employers complain constantly that applicants are "not qualified" but how much do they do to give newer or younger applicants a chance to get experience?  IMO employers are in a position to fix this problem but don't want to spend any time or money doing so.

I think thats a valid point.  I also think that it is part of a larger, more complex issue that also involves unintended consequences. 

In the early 1970’s I think, the supreme court ruled that employers could not use intelligence tests as part of evaluation for potential hires.  This is one of the things that began the “outsourcing” of such evaluations to the university system making a college degree something of a “job license” in effect. 

If employers couldn't test you before they hired you, they would let a college degree substitute for that and make a general assumption that as long as someone had a college degree, they must be marginally intelligent.  Otherwise, they incurred the expense and risk of training an idiot. 

Now that most applicants already have a college degree, why bother with expensive training programs?  The push by American society to get every kid into college only reinforces that strategy. 

I know it is more complex than that, but i do think its a big part of it. 

dang1

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2019, 10:30:01 AM »
another big part is the mantra of focusing on core competencies, and outsource everything else. Also, just-in-time inventory also applies to the workforce.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2019, 02:17:05 PM »
I think it's becoming increasingly difficult to easily be a good employee.  Companies are more difficult to navigate as an employee than ever before.  It seems that the need for customer service skills/people skills and tech skills are climbing in even the most simple of jobs.

Another metric is worker productivity; afaik productivity has been climbing away which means workers have to be faster, more decisive, and with tighter margins surrounding their jobs.

Just a hunch.  Moore's law is hitting a wall, and so too is the human equivalent.

At the other end of the spectrum, those who can prove they're good employees are being compensated more lavishly. So it's swings and roundabouts.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2019, 02:30:59 PM »
I think it's becoming increasingly difficult to easily be a good employee.  Companies are more difficult to navigate as an employee than ever before.  It seems that the need for customer service skills/people skills and tech skills are climbing in even the most simple of jobs.

Another metric is worker productivity; afaik productivity has been climbing away which means workers have to be faster, more decisive, and with tighter margins surrounding their jobs.

Just a hunch.  Moore's law is hitting a wall, and so too is the human equivalent.

At the other end of the spectrum, those who can prove they're good employees are being compensated more lavishly. So it's swings and roundabouts.

Very true.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2019, 06:18:31 PM »




In the early 1970’s I think, the supreme court ruled that employers could not use intelligence tests as part of evaluation for potential hires. 

Griggs v. Duke Power Co.  (1971)

mm1970

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2019, 10:32:51 AM »
Quote
I think this is an excellent example that illustrates how misguided the 'living wage' militants are.  Not every job should pay a living wage. There are some jobs that just aren't that valuable to an employer and there are some employees that are perfectly happy with a job that would not, by itself, support them fully.

That doesn't make them 'bad' jobs, just jobs that are on the margins of value to everyone involved.   If we forced every employer to pay a 'living wage' to every employee, these jobs would simply vanish, which would be a net loss to everyone.

In general I like your point about high wage jobs having a multiplying effect on lower wage jobs due to the increased demand they can generate.  Seems like a very good way to look at it.  I know my high wage job certainly increases demand for restaurant workers : )

Great, some day all the jobs will be like that then.

And people wonder what happened to the "work ethic", and why are people just trying to live on welfare, and why don't people want to work?

The original point of the minimum wage was a living wage.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2019, 11:06:01 AM »
Quote
I think this is an excellent example that illustrates how misguided the 'living wage' militants are.  Not every job should pay a living wage. There are some jobs that just aren't that valuable to an employer and there are some employees that are perfectly happy with a job that would not, by itself, support them fully.

That doesn't make them 'bad' jobs, just jobs that are on the margins of value to everyone involved.   If we forced every employer to pay a 'living wage' to every employee, these jobs would simply vanish, which would be a net loss to everyone.

In general I like your point about high wage jobs having a multiplying effect on lower wage jobs due to the increased demand they can generate.  Seems like a very good way to look at it.  I know my high wage job certainly increases demand for restaurant workers : )

Great, some day all the jobs will be like that then.

And people wonder what happened to the "work ethic", and why are people just trying to live on welfare, and why don't people want to work?

The original point of the minimum wage was a living wage.

Underage workers, people that are semi-retired will always be willing to work for less than a living wage and it seems reasonable to employ them.  There are some jobs that are fit for this type of arrangement.  Although I understand your point that this has the risk of underpaying people that need more income.  Not sure what the right solution is, probably a healthy means-tested social security net. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2019, 04:04:37 PM »
The min wage came about at a time when one income was indeed supposed to cover a whole family. Now that more of the population works, that consideration no longer carries as much weight. A full-time min wage job ought to be able to cover one person's frugal living expenses, but not a whole family's. And one person can live on a small budget, particularly when taking into account share-houses and the like.

mathlete

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2019, 01:47:07 PM »
I think we’re better off strengthening to social safety net then fighting for better jobs and wages.

If we want to help the working mom raising kids on a minimum wage, it’s better to just guarantee universal childcare imo.

mathlete

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2019, 01:57:58 PM »
I think we’re better off strengthening to social safety net then fighting for better jobs and wages.

If we want to help the working mom raising kids on a minimum wage, it’s better to just guarantee universal childcare imo.

Implicit in this is that the American worker is absolutely going to lose against globalization and automation. The lost manufacturing jobs in the study that paid high dollar are never coming back.

We should be taking the windfalls of technology and free global trade and using them to make whole the people who lost out.

exterous

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2019, 06:11:54 AM »
I think it's becoming increasingly difficult to easily be a good employee.  Companies are more difficult to navigate as an employee than ever before.

In my area some of that is because companies are insulating themselves from increased regulations and bad publicity with larger blankets of red tape. When you have tens of thousands of employees someone is going to do something stupid (harassment, data breach etc) which will get the organization's name plastered all over the news, instagram and facebook. One of the best defenses against that in order to get the story to die quickly and avoid lawsuits is to point to the masses of mandatory trainings, processes (and process review processes), meetings to gain input and outreach efforts. And those habits tend to trickle down to smaller companies either through 'best practices', hiring or media visibility.

I'd like to comment on the aspect of employers training workers.

When I first started at my MegaCorp job in the mid-1990s, my older co-workers clearly recalled a time when the company would hire people and train them.   One example: a young guy who was hired to sweep floors in the lab area was then taught various aspects of the lab tech job.  He eventually became head of the lab area.  He didn't have a degree when he started, but he was given a chance. 
Today, there's little to no job opportunities like that. (of course, janitorial services, etc. are outsourced).  Now, she or he would be required to have a degree and some experience before they even applied, even for very basic positions. 

My point:  employers complain constantly that applicants are "not qualified" but how much do they do to give newer or younger applicants a chance to get experience?  IMO employers are in a position to fix this problem but don't want to spend any time or money doing so.

This is just my experience so biased by location\industry: Due to the low unemployment rates, the gap in the candidates is so large that the really good\qualified candidates get snapped up quickly and the remainder have waaaay to little experience. And not every position is one where you can say 'well train someone up then'. Sometimes the gap is just too big, the task too critical or the need is too immediate.

And this is from a company that has a great (if a bit small) pipeline for new talent and is willing to invest in employees. I hired someone away from his janitorial duties (so first IT job) and he's now an amazing sys admin.

sabanist

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2019, 12:39:47 PM »
Stumbled upon this article whilst pretending to work at the office this morning. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/american-jobs-are-getting-worse-a-new-index-shows/ar-BBXpfR1

It seems to me that this is a bit of statistical misuse.   The gist of it is that the ratio of new jobs paying less than average to new jobs paying more than average is showing that the economy is now more bad jobs than good ones. 

Would it not be expected, however, that as workers are brought into the workforce during a period of historically low unemployment - meaning that there are fewer and fewer candidates for any job - you are almost by definition largely pulling from a pool of, shall we say, less employable people?   

I realize that the unemployment numbers (3.6% currently) could be a bit misleading, but even so, the general trend is clear.  If you have 100 people looking for work and you've got 96 of them picked for 'teams' to use an analogy, doesn't it make sense that those last 4 are probably not anyone's best candidates?  Does it not then follow that the type of job for which those dwindling few are chosen are most likely skewed toward the lower end?   

In other words, it seems to me that this is simply the logical result of a full employment scenario. It isn't a commentary so much on the possible jobs in our economy, but rather the jobs that are possible for the available candidates to fill them.

There are many threads on this forum on "what do you do and what is your salary".  The trend seems to be pretty high earnings from what I can tell. 

I know the dept of education now has earnings for first year grads attached to degree programs at different schools.  Some are pretty dang high imo. Ofcourse I was in college over 20 years ago so perhaps that is just me comparing it to 2000 starting salaries.  But still, most people started in the 20-30 range when I gradutated.  Now they start in the 40-50 range. Some higher and a few lower. 

But college degrees aside.  There are endless ways to earn a living in todays tech advanced society. 

EscapedApe

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2019, 01:42:10 PM »
A commonly heard refrain I hear is "no/not enough qualified candidates," so it would make sense. Personally, trying to hire skilled workers(engineers) for our company is difficult because you currently, basically , have to poach.   It's not like there are bunch of skilled engineers sitting on the sidelines.

That's also why it's rough for entry-level engineers who are fresh out of college. They contribute relatively little in their first year (as they learn the ropes) and they're yet-unproven, but their salaries are still pretty high. So no company wants to be the first to take the dive and hire them.

mathlete

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2019, 01:54:52 PM »
There are many threads on this forum on "what do you do and what is your salary".  The trend seems to be pretty high earnings from what I can tell. 

We are a self-selected group of very high earners.

TempusFugit

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #28 on: December 02, 2019, 05:08:11 PM »
There are many threads on this forum on "what do you do and what is your salary".  The trend seems to be pretty high earnings from what I can tell. 

We are a self-selected group of very high earners.

Not to mention that high earners are more likely to respond to such a poll. 

marion10

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #29 on: December 02, 2019, 06:44:47 PM »
Also back when I worked minimum wage jobs ( high school and college)- it was common to have set schedule or least one that was set every two weeks. This made it possible to go to school or have a second job. Now it seems for many low wage jobs there is no guarantee of hours and you are expected to be available all the time- you might come in for a shift and then the scheduling software determines not enough traffic and you get sent home.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #30 on: December 03, 2019, 05:35:22 AM »
Also back when I worked minimum wage jobs ( high school and college)- it was common to have set schedule or least one that was set every two weeks. This made it possible to go to school or have a second job. Now it seems for many low wage jobs there is no guarantee of hours and you are expected to be available all the time- you might come in for a shift and then the scheduling software determines not enough traffic and you get sent home.

This.  And it also creates a nightmare for childcare or dependent care.  No wonder the fastest growing segment of child care is the service that's open 24 hours.

FIPurpose

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2019, 06:08:41 AM »
The solution is simple:

Raise the minimum wage immediately to $15/hr and set it to inflate with COL
Lower the work week from 40 to 28 hrs per week.

There you go, all low wage jobs suddenly become not-so-bad wage jobs. Everyone then has time to start a side-hussle or further education while working full-time. I've yet to have a job in my life where I couldn't accomplish what I do in 30 hours per week.

BTDretire

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2019, 06:53:36 AM »
Quote
I think this is an excellent example that illustrates how misguided the 'living wage' militants are.  Not every job should pay a living wage. There are some jobs that just aren't that valuable to an employer and there are some employees that are perfectly happy with a job that would not, by itself, support them fully.

That doesn't make them 'bad' jobs, just jobs that are on the margins of value to everyone involved.   If we forced every employer to pay a 'living wage' to every employee, these jobs would simply vanish, which would be a net loss to everyone.

In general I like your point about high wage jobs having a multiplying effect on lower wage jobs due to the increased demand they can generate.  Seems like a very good way to look at it.  I know my high wage job certainly increases demand for restaurant workers : )

Great, some day all the jobs will be like that then.

And people wonder what happened to the "work ethic", and why are people just trying to live on welfare, and why don't people want to work?

The original point of the minimum wage was a living wage.

Underage workers, people that are semi-retired will always be willing to work for less than a living wage and it seems reasonable to employ them.  There are some jobs that are fit for this type of arrangement.  Although I understand your point that this has the risk of underpaying people that need more income.  Not sure what the right solution is, probably a healthy means-tested social security net.

 Oh, you got me on the means testing! My wife and I have paid SS taxes 40 and 50 years respectively. About half of those years I paid both halves of the tax.
We earned just slightly (single digit %) more than the US median income (inflation adjusted). Now the we lived our life differently than 95% of the population and saved a nice nest egg, you want to take away a retirement policy I have paid for?
   How about we start that for people that are 40 yrs old now so they get means tested went the start SS.
 That gives them a nice incentive to save for their future. /s/  Tough decision, do I, pay SS and save for myself, then lose my SS because I saved, or just pay SS and collect it.
 SS needs fixing, and I have listed 5 methods in other threads that if combined will make it less daunting on every taxpayer.
 

OtherJen

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2019, 07:14:34 AM »
Quote
I think this is an excellent example that illustrates how misguided the 'living wage' militants are.  Not every job should pay a living wage. There are some jobs that just aren't that valuable to an employer and there are some employees that are perfectly happy with a job that would not, by itself, support them fully.

That doesn't make them 'bad' jobs, just jobs that are on the margins of value to everyone involved.   If we forced every employer to pay a 'living wage' to every employee, these jobs would simply vanish, which would be a net loss to everyone.

In general I like your point about high wage jobs having a multiplying effect on lower wage jobs due to the increased demand they can generate.  Seems like a very good way to look at it.  I know my high wage job certainly increases demand for restaurant workers : )

Great, some day all the jobs will be like that then.

And people wonder what happened to the "work ethic", and why are people just trying to live on welfare, and why don't people want to work?

The original point of the minimum wage was a living wage.

Underage workers, people that are semi-retired will always be willing to work for less than a living wage and it seems reasonable to employ them.  There are some jobs that are fit for this type of arrangement.  Although I understand your point that this has the risk of underpaying people that need more income.  Not sure what the right solution is, probably a healthy means-tested social security net.

 Oh, you got me on the means testing! My wife and I have paid SS taxes 40 and 50 years respectively. About half of those years I paid both halves of the tax.
We earned just slightly (single digit %) more than the US median income (inflation adjusted). Now the we lived our life differently than 95% of the population and saved a nice nest egg, you want to take away a retirement policy I have paid for?
   How about we start that for people that are 40 yrs old now so they get means tested went the start SS.
 That gives them a nice incentive to save for their future. /s/  Tough decision, do I, pay SS and save for myself, then lose my SS because I saved, or just pay SS and collect it.
 SS needs fixing, and I have listed 5 methods in other threads that if combined will make it less daunting on every taxpayer.
 

I do see the /s/ and hope it applied to more than that line, but it’s a bit too uncomfortably close to what I’ve heard from my parents, in-laws, and various other elders in the last decade or so.

Anyone who actually thinks this is a good idea..yeah, don’t push that down onto those of us in our early 40s. I’ve been paying into SS for 24 years. Husband has been paying in for 28 years. I’ve been paying both halves of mine for the last 12 years. We’re over the median household income but not by much, and certainly not anywhere near most of the incomes on these boards. We’ve heard our whole adult lives not to count on receiving any SS when we retire, despite being forced to pay in the full rate, so our current retirement projections don’t even include it. Honestly, that’s bullshit.

We’re paying for it, just like the older people did. Please don’t vote for legislators who want to screw us over in the long-term to make their budgets look better in the short term.

sabanist

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2019, 07:28:49 AM »
I'm in the same age group and yea, Im still not counting on SS, no matter how much closer to retirement age i get.  Sucks but I'd rather my taxes not be raised to prolong a government program.  I'll just keep saving the way I have always done and shouldn't need it. 

At least keep raising the retirement age to make the program more viable.  If we are talking what SS was meant for, it was those at the end of their life, to pay because they can't work.  not those that are just retiring. 

Wrenchturner

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #35 on: December 03, 2019, 08:09:24 AM »
Quote
I think this is an excellent example that illustrates how misguided the 'living wage' militants are.  Not every job should pay a living wage. There are some jobs that just aren't that valuable to an employer and there are some employees that are perfectly happy with a job that would not, by itself, support them fully.

That doesn't make them 'bad' jobs, just jobs that are on the margins of value to everyone involved.   If we forced every employer to pay a 'living wage' to every employee, these jobs would simply vanish, which would be a net loss to everyone.

In general I like your point about high wage jobs having a multiplying effect on lower wage jobs due to the increased demand they can generate.  Seems like a very good way to look at it.  I know my high wage job certainly increases demand for restaurant workers : )

Great, some day all the jobs will be like that then.

And people wonder what happened to the "work ethic", and why are people just trying to live on welfare, and why don't people want to work?

The original point of the minimum wage was a living wage.

Underage workers, people that are semi-retired will always be willing to work for less than a living wage and it seems reasonable to employ them.  There are some jobs that are fit for this type of arrangement.  Although I understand your point that this has the risk of underpaying people that need more income.  Not sure what the right solution is, probably a healthy means-tested social security net.

 Oh, you got me on the means testing! My wife and I have paid SS taxes 40 and 50 years respectively. About half of those years I paid both halves of the tax.
We earned just slightly (single digit %) more than the US median income (inflation adjusted). Now the we lived our life differently than 95% of the population and saved a nice nest egg, you want to take away a retirement policy I have paid for?
   How about we start that for people that are 40 yrs old now so they get means tested went the start SS.
 That gives them a nice incentive to save for their future. /s/  Tough decision, do I, pay SS and save for myself, then lose my SS because I saved, or just pay SS and collect it.
 SS needs fixing, and I have listed 5 methods in other threads that if combined will make it less daunting on every taxpayer.
 

I do see the /s/ and hope it applied to more than that line, but it’s a bit too uncomfortably close to what I’ve heard from my parents, in-laws, and various other elders in the last decade or so.

Anyone who actually thinks this is a good idea..yeah, don’t push that down onto those of us in our early 40s. I’ve been paying into SS for 24 years. Husband has been paying in for 28 years. I’ve been paying both halves of mine for the last 12 years. We’re over the median household income but not by much, and certainly not anywhere near most of the incomes on these boards. We’ve heard our whole adult lives not to count on receiving any SS when we retire, despite being forced to pay in the full rate, so our current retirement projections don’t even include it. Honestly, that’s bullshit.

We’re paying for it, just like the older people did. Please don’t vote for legislators who want to screw us over in the long-term to make their budgets look better in the short term.

Lol I have historically been on your sides of the argument.  Yours and @BTDretire 's.  Check my post history if you like.  However we have decided as a society that if someone hasn't earned money in their lives, they should still receive some amount of social security.  This will inevitably result in some people having paid in more than they receive.  The means-testing is intended to avoid people gaming the system, although there will always be those that succeed at that.  You can vote to support your ideas, you can protest if you want. 

Social security isn't supposed to be fair.  It's supposed to provide security to those that have nothing or very little.  The dividend you receive is when you don't get stabbed walking down the street by a destitute and resentful person.

mm1970

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #36 on: December 03, 2019, 12:14:37 PM »
Quote
Social security isn't supposed to be fair.  It's supposed to provide security to those that have nothing or very little.  The dividend you receive is when you don't get stabbed walking down the street by a destitute and resentful person.

This is very true.

Fun fact: the absolute brokest that SS will be, when the # of workers to retirees is the smallest is ... right when spouse and I hit 67 (though he's 2 years older).

ericrugiero

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #37 on: December 03, 2019, 02:23:20 PM »
The solution is simple:

Raise the minimum wage immediately to $15/hr and set it to inflate with COL
Lower the work week from 40 to 28 hrs per week.

There you go, all low wage jobs suddenly become not-so-bad wage jobs. Everyone then has time to start a side-hussle or further education while working full-time. I've yet to have a job in my life where I couldn't accomplish what I do in 30 hours per week.

While I'm sure you mean well, that would have some unintended consequences.  Raising the minimum wage drastically would require higher prices for places that pay minimum wage.  That drives the overall cost of living up.  Lowering the work week to 28 hours would mean that companies must pay benefits for someone working 28 hrs/week.  They must hire more people to cover the extra hours and pay them benefits as well which also causes the cost of goods to rise.  Something has to give in that situation.  There are a few different possibilities for a business:
1)  Add automation and do away with low paid workers (think self checkout at Walmart or touchscreen ordering for fast food)
2)  Raise prices
3)  Go out of business (or don't start a business)
There would probably be a combination of all these possibilities along with a few others I'm not thinking of. 


mathlete

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #38 on: December 03, 2019, 02:32:15 PM »
They must hire more people to cover the extra hours and pay them benefits as well which also causes the cost of goods to rise.  Something has to give in that situation.  There are a few different possibilities for a business:
1)  Add automation and do away with low paid workers (think self checkout at Walmart or touchscreen ordering for fast food)
2)  Raise prices
3)  Go out of business (or don't start a business)

I'm not saying you're wrong, I only point this out because I see it a lot and it's very interesting to me.

When projecting out the possibilities for how business will react to a policy proposal, people tend to hold one item constant. Here's a basic equation:

Profit = Unit Sales * Price Per Unit - Cost of Goods Sold - Administrative Expense

So a policy proposal will raise administrative expenses.

Option #1 will lower administrative expenses by cutting jobs or investing in automation
#2 raises the Price Per Unit
#3 says to hell with the whole equation

But there's always #4, ownership could accept lower profits. So many of these discussions start with the assumption that profits should be fixed, or that they should only ever go up as a result of a policy.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 02:34:32 PM by mathlete »

FIPurpose

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #39 on: December 03, 2019, 02:40:27 PM »
The solution is simple:

Raise the minimum wage immediately to $15/hr and set it to inflate with COL
Lower the work week from 40 to 28 hrs per week.

There you go, all low wage jobs suddenly become not-so-bad wage jobs. Everyone then has time to start a side-hussle or further education while working full-time. I've yet to have a job in my life where I couldn't accomplish what I do in 30 hours per week.

While I'm sure you mean well, that would have some unintended consequences.  Raising the minimum wage drastically would require higher prices for places that pay minimum wage.  That drives the overall cost of living up.  Lowering the work week to 28 hours would mean that companies must pay benefits for someone working 28 hrs/week.  They must hire more people to cover the extra hours and pay them benefits as well which also causes the cost of goods to rise.  Something has to give in that situation.  There are a few different possibilities for a business:
1)  Add automation and do away with low paid workers (think self checkout at Walmart or touchscreen ordering for fast food)
2)  Raise prices
3)  Go out of business (or don't start a business)
There would probably be a combination of all these possibilities along with a few others I'm not thinking of.

While I'm sure you mean well, we're currently living with the apparently intended consequences where old women aren't able to save for retirement and are working well into their 70's and 80's. Want less poverty, move more money to the lower class.

There's also a 4th option: Get rid of BS work. Microsoft tested out a 4-day work week and had a 40% productivity boost. Will this work everywhere? No, but goodness knows I spend at least 10 hours a week goofing around. A 50% per hour increase with a 30% fewer hours each week might actually balance out overall. What can Americans do with an extra 10% of their time back? Economically, a lot.

Public companies alone bought back $1T in stock this year, US companies can afford to pay more without losing any jobs.

maizefolk

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #40 on: December 03, 2019, 03:03:50 PM »
Want less poverty, move more money to the lower class. ... Public companies alone bought back $1T in stock this year, US companies can afford to pay more without losing any jobs.

I agree with you here, but this seems to be an argument for either a UBI or negative income tax (which is a topic already debated to death in other threads) funded by an increase in taxation of corporate profits rather than an argument for a raise in the minimum wage.

-Raising the minimum wage to $15/hour helps people who currently make less than $15/hour but generate more than $15/hour in profit for their employer.
-Raising the minimum wage to $15/hour hurts people who currently make less than $15/hour and generate less than $15/hour in profit for their employer.
-Raising the minimum wage to $15/hour doesn't do anything for people who cannot currently find work, or those trying to support a family while making $15 or more per hour.

Either a UBI or negative income tax would help all three groups.


FIPurpose

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #41 on: December 03, 2019, 03:39:28 PM »
Want less poverty, move more money to the lower class. ... Public companies alone bought back $1T in stock this year, US companies can afford to pay more without losing any jobs.

I agree with you here, but this seems to be an argument for either a UBI or negative income tax (which is a topic already debated to death in other threads) funded by an increase in taxation of corporate profits rather than an argument for a raise in the minimum wage.

-Raising the minimum wage to $15/hour helps people who currently make less than $15/hour but generate more than $15/hour in profit for their employer.
-Raising the minimum wage to $15/hour hurts people who currently make less than $15/hour and generate less than $15/hour in profit for their employer.
-Raising the minimum wage to $15/hour doesn't do anything for people who cannot currently find work, or those trying to support a family while making $15 or more per hour.

Either a UBI or negative income tax would help all three groups.

I believe it is valuable for a person to work, and for everyone in the country to put in something.

But beyond that, how does one determine who is bringing in more than 15/hr of value to a company? In a restaurant, you have wait staff, cooks, management, and the owners (representing capital). The restaurant can't run without all of those pieces, so who exactly is creating more than 15/hr and whose making less?

In the US, pay has much less to do with value creation, and more to do with power structures. Capital demands flexing its muscle to pay as low as possible, however, if the restaurant were a co-op or unionized, then the staff, cooks, and management would be in a much better position to earn an appropriate salary relative to their value.

The fact that anyone is still being paid less than 15/hr is insane to me. That's not livable, and certainly barely enough to save for retirement, or college tuition, or even a rainy day.

maizefolk

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #42 on: December 03, 2019, 04:21:57 PM »
I believe it is valuable for a person to work

I disagree, but I can understand how others see it otherwise. Personally if I thought it was ethically important to work I would have been much less motivated to pursue FIRE. But this gets into the endless debates on UBI/negative income tax and it seems unlikely anyone is going to convince anyone else at this late juncture.

Quote
But beyond that, how does one determine who is bringing in more than 15/hr of value to a company? In a restaurant, you have wait staff, cooks, management, and the owners (representing capital). The restaurant can't run without all of those pieces, so who exactly is creating more than 15/hr and whose making less?

If absolutely every employee is essential to the functioning of the restaurant (if any one of them leaves and is not replaced the restaurant doesn't work) then the key question is whether the restaurant makes enough revenue to cover payroll with everyone either making $15/hour or a salary equivalent to what they could earn at another business (whichever is greater).

If the owners pay employees less than they can make at another similar job, they'll lose those essential employees and the restaurant will close.
If the owners pay employees less than the $15/minimum wage, they are breaking the law and the restaurant will close.
If the owners pay employees more than the restaurant makes (after paying rent, taxes, cost of goods, etc), they'll run out of money and the restaurant will close.

In many cases though some employees will be more replaceable than others. For example, a hike in the minimum wage might make waitstaff expensive enough that the owners chain an ipad to every table so people can put in their own orders, and reduce the number of waiters/waitresses they need to run the restaurant by 1/2. They might invest in automated dishwashers, or swap out some of the most complicated to make items on the menu so that they can feed the same number of tables with fewer cooks.

Quote
In the US, pay has much less to do with value creation, and more to do with power structures. Capital demands flexing its muscle to pay as low as possible, however, if the restaurant were a co-op or unionized, then the staff, cooks, and management would be in a much better position to earn an appropriate salary relative to their value.

I believe every human being has a great deal of inherent value. I think it is a mistake to conflate human value (which is infinite), with economic value (which is finite).

There are people out there in the world today making $10/hour or $12/hour whose work could be replaced by a machine at lower cost if their labor instead cost $15/hour. There are other people working jobs where their employer nets $1-2/hour after paying salary, benefits, and fixed costs.

If one treats economic value and human value as synonymous then the only options I see are to 1) think people in those situations are less valuable human beings (which I find abhorrent) or 2) to deny that anyone, anywhere, is currently working at a job which wouldn't be economically viable at $15/hour (which I just cannot convince myself of).

FIPurpose

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #43 on: December 03, 2019, 05:39:06 PM »
If absolutely every employee is essential to the functioning of the restaurant (if any one of them leaves and is not replaced the restaurant doesn't work) then the key question is whether the restaurant makes enough revenue to cover payroll with everyone either making $15/hour or a salary equivalent to what they could earn at another business (whichever is greater).

If the owners pay employees less than they can make at another similar job, they'll lose those essential employees and the restaurant will close.
If the owners pay employees less than the $15/minimum wage, they are breaking the law and the restaurant will close.
If the owners pay employees more than the restaurant makes (after paying rent, taxes, cost of goods, etc), they'll run out of money and the restaurant will close.

In many cases though some employees will be more replaceable than others. For example, a hike in the minimum wage might make waitstaff expensive enough that the owners chain an ipad to every table so people can put in their own orders, and reduce the number of waiters/waitresses they need to run the restaurant by 1/2. They might invest in automated dishwashers, or swap out some of the most complicated to make items on the menu so that they can feed the same number of tables with fewer cooks.

Quote
In the US, pay has much less to do with value creation, and more to do with power structures. Capital demands flexing its muscle to pay as low as possible, however, if the restaurant were a co-op or unionized, then the staff, cooks, and management would be in a much better position to earn an appropriate salary relative to their value.

I believe every human being has a great deal of inherent value. I think it is a mistake to conflate human value (which is infinite), with economic value (which is finite).

There are people out there in the world today making $10/hour or $12/hour whose work could be replaced by a machine at lower cost if their labor instead cost $15/hour. There are other people working jobs where their employer nets $1-2/hour after paying salary, benefits, and fixed costs.

If one treats economic value and human value as synonymous then the only options I see are to 1) think people in those situations are less valuable human beings (which I find abhorrent) or 2) to deny that anyone, anywhere, is currently working at a job which wouldn't be economically viable at $15/hour (which I just cannot convince myself of).

If a restaurant can afford to pay its entire staff 15/hr, but then why doesn't the restaurant pay those wages? That's the value that the humans in that restaurant are producing.

I'm not trying to equate human value to economic output; I'm saying that a person's market value and productive value are way out of line.

If a business is making let's say 1MM in profit but does so with 10 minimum wage employees. Who is the one producing that value? The business is exploiting a weakness in the market in order to gain a profit, however that weakness is the exploitation of human labor whereby an employer is able to extract out more profit than is paid out in wages. It is reasonable and should be expected that capital would require some kind of return on investment, but there is a point where that runs waaay out of line. That point is now. What I'm saying is that human labor needs reasonable rules around it so that it isn't so easy to exploit people of their life force.

Walmart profited 190B this year. They have 2.2MM employees. That rounds out to about 60k/employee. Now some of that is reasonably due to the capital that has paid for the enterprise, but to say that capital is the sole inheritor of all human profits?

Look at Uber where people who are bad at math basically make less than minimum wage and line the pockets of Uber executives. Far be it from me to say that Uber is appropriately paying their drivers.

If machines replaced 20% of the work force, I don't think the rich should then get to pay minimum wage for their own personal jesters just because everyone poor enough would be willing to do it. It's demeaning and shameful that people think extracting human value for their own personal gain at the expense of that human's ability to pay for medical care, housing, and healthy food is just the way Capitalism works. There is a better way to organize our society. Much better that treats humanity with a bit more equity.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 05:41:28 PM by FIPurpose »

maizefolk

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #44 on: December 03, 2019, 06:51:30 PM »
If a restaurant can afford to pay its entire staff 15/hr, but then why doesn't the restaurant pay those wages? That's the value that the humans in that restaurant are producing.

I feel like we're talking past each other here. Many restaurants CANNOT afford to pay their entire staff the greater of $15/hour or whatever those same staff members could get working other jobs. Many of the restaurants (and other small businesses) only break even because the owners and their families are working 60-80 hour weeks without pay.

Quote
I'm not trying to equate human value to economic output; I'm saying that a person's market value and productive value are way out of line.

Okay, you are right that is a different discussion.

On what data do you base your conclusion that for folks making between $7.25/hour and $15/hour are creating enough economic productivity that their employers could afford to pay all of them $15/hour without losing money?

If you look at American industry as a whole today, corporate profits are indeed vast. The problem with trying to use a minimum wage hike to shift more of those profits back to worker compensation is that an awful lot of those profits are earned by tech companies like Google or Apple or Microsoft which have very few workers earning between $14,000-30,000/year ($7-15/hour). The low wage employees those companies do have (for example the Apple Genius Bar workers) are in parts of the company that are particularly vulnerable to automation. Almost half of all retail workers in the USA will likely be displaced by automation in the next ten years even if wages remain constant.

While big businesses tend to generate a lot of profit often with increasingly small numbers of (relatively) highly paid employees, small businesses often run on much tighter margins and employ a disproportionate share of low wage workers. Approximately half of all minimum wage workers work at businesses with less than 100 employees and 40% at businesses with less than 50. Think a family owned hardware or grocery store. These businesses are, in turn, disproportionately operating in the retail space where profit margins are slim to begin with (3-5% for restaurants 1-3% for grocery stores), and competition from online retailers who don't employ nearly as many people are shrinking their revenue and margins even more.

TL;DR: While it is true that in the US today many people make less than $15/hour and companies are making vast corporate profits, most of the people making minimum wage aren't working for the the companies making those vast profits, and most employees at those super profitable companies aren't making less than $15/hour.

Quote
Look at Uber where people who are bad at math basically make less than minimum wage and line the pockets of Uber executives. Far be it from me to say that Uber is appropriately paying their drivers.

Uber is a great example. It's a company that is losing billions of dollars per year. (Well 1.8B in 2018, I'm rounding 1.8 up to billions with an "s"). Telling Uber it's only allowed to have drivers if it pays them more is certainly something we could do. But Uber isn't going to be subsidized by investment money forever. And it isn't going to survive losing money on every ride.

Now Uber could certainly raise their prices to both turn a profit on each ride AND pay their drivers more. But raising prices would reduce how often people called for a Uber ride, reducing the total number of drivers the company would need.

So the choice we'd be making there, as a society, is whether we'd rather have more lower paid Uber drivers, or fewer higher paid Uber drivers. That's basically a microcosm of the whole challenge we face with the labor market generally.

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If machines replaced 20% of the work force, I don't think the rich should then get to pay minimum wage for their own personal jesters just because everyone poor enough would be willing to do it. It's demeaning and shameful that people think extracting human value for their own personal gain at the expense of that human's ability to pay for medical care, housing, and healthy food is just the way Capitalism works. There is a better way to organize our society. Much better that treats humanity with a bit more equity.

I agree! Let's establish a safety net that means no one has to choose between going without medical care, housing, or healthy food or taking a demeaning job (whether at $12/hour or $15/hour) that adds very little of value to society (e.g. personal jester to someone random guy who was an early investor in facebook). People will do almost anything when they're worried about losing their home or not being able to feed their children, but we shouldn't be putting people in a situation whether those are their only alternatives.

While we're at it, let's also makes sure that the people who don't even have the option of working as a personal jester* also have their fundamental needs met.

Let's do it by taxing corporate profits, which puts the burden of providing that safety net on proportionally the companies that make the most corporate profits (Apple, Microsoft, Google, etc), instead of a system that harms the vast number of people making low wages at small companies that make much less profit.

I will point out that your underlined sentence seems a lot more like a discussion human value than economic output. (And I agree, human beings have a lot of value and importance in the world. It's just not always tied to our economic output.)

*Because when it boils down, if we're counting on rich people hiring americans put out of work by robots to do menial and degrading jobs, there just aren't that many rich people relative to the number of folks at risk of being put out of work by automation (with or without a minimum wage hike).

TempusFugit

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #45 on: December 03, 2019, 07:35:42 PM »
The profit incentive leads to a willingness of people to risk their capital.   Why would someone risk their own money without the potential to make it back with a decent return?    Who says what's a reasonable profit?  Some government agency?

It isn't that the idea of it isn't somehow relate-able; we can probably all think of examples where the people at the top seem to us to be getting too much of the benefits, but the practical problem is that no one can or should be in a position to dictate to others where that line is.  That simply never ends well.  People are people for good and for ill.  No one can be trusted to hold that power over everyone else. If you feel unfairly treated at your job, you can quit.  I know that isn't always so easy, it's just better for everyone, for society at large, if individuals have more freedom.  If you give government that kind of power, you can't just quit the country.

This is the hard reality of life in human society. No one can be trusted with the kind of power your idea would require.  There are no perfect solutions, only less bad ones. 

BTW, the business model you've been using as an example is one of the riskiest businesses in the US.  Most restaurants fail miserably.  Now why in the world would someone risk starting up such a business if you placed some sort of cap on how much they could even theoretically profit if it were successful? 

Capitalism is ugly.  It isn't always fair.  It's disruptive and unpredictable.  It's the worst economic system in the world except for the others.   We have to have a balance (re calibrated at times) between a free system and a safe system.  There should be rules to prevent exploitation.  There should be rules about safety and common good like environmental protection, but those things should be as minimal as we can make them. 

MoneyQuirk

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #46 on: December 03, 2019, 08:24:44 PM »
I think there's a big trend to state that the "economy is going to garbage". Why? Because it sells.

The economy is better than it has been before. There will be some hiccups, but overall it just keeps getting better.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #47 on: December 03, 2019, 09:24:14 PM »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #48 on: December 03, 2019, 09:41:13 PM »
The solution is simple:

Raise the minimum wage immediately to $15/hr and set it to inflate with COL
Lower the work week from 40 to 28 hrs per week.

There you go, all low wage jobs suddenly become not-so-bad wage jobs. Everyone then has time to start a side-hussle or further education while working full-time. I've yet to have a job in my life where I couldn't accomplish what I do in 30 hours per week.

I'm sure there are plenty of construction workers, doctors, postmen and others who couldn't accomplish a 40 hour week in 30 hours. Right now I get paid by the hour and I couldn't do it in 30 hours without ripping off my clients.

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Re: Are jobs really getting worse?
« Reply #49 on: December 03, 2019, 10:39:07 PM »
The profit incentive leads to a willingness of people to risk their capital.   Why would someone risk their own money without the potential to make it back with a decent return?    Who says what's a reasonable profit?  Some government agency?

It isn't that the idea of it isn't somehow relate-able; we can probably all think of examples where the people at the top seem to us to be getting too much of the benefits, but the practical problem is that no one can or should be in a position to dictate to others where that line is.  That simply never ends well.  People are people for good and for ill.  No one can be trusted to hold that power over everyone else. If you feel unfairly treated at your job, you can quit.  I know that isn't always so easy, it's just better for everyone, for society at large, if individuals have more freedom.  If you give government that kind of power, you can't just quit the country.

This is the hard reality of life in human society. No one can be trusted with the kind of power your idea would require.  There are no perfect solutions, only less bad ones. 

BTW, the business model you've been using as an example is one of the riskiest businesses in the US.  Most restaurants fail miserably.  Now why in the world would someone risk starting up such a business if you placed some sort of cap on how much they could even theoretically profit if it were successful? 

Capitalism is ugly.  It isn't always fair.  It's disruptive and unpredictable.  It's the worst economic system in the world except for the others.   We have to have a balance (re calibrated at times) between a free system and a safe system.  There should be rules to prevent exploitation.  There should be rules about safety and common good like environmental protection, but those things should be as minimal as we can make them.

Right now our system says: what's a decent return? All of it. That wasn't true 60-70 years ago when greater portions of wealth were shared among workers.

Examples of the top getting too much of the benefits: basically every major US corporation

You can demand fair treatment and still have freedom, those aren't mutually exclusive thing

If the government isn't allowed to keep capitalism in check, then who are you going to trust, the plutocracy that we have now?

You're leaning into some Reaganomics language here which is what caused our crash in both 2000 and 2008. We shouldn't pretend that worker rights, regulations, and benefits were the same in the 50's as they are today. Reagan and every president since have been slowly eroding the power of labor, in favor of enriching and empowering the 1%.  Government programs and jobs were highly successful and enriched the country. Labor unions managed to keep labor on equal footing with management. That's all practically gone now save a few small industries and public sectors. This isn't a "some bad eggs" situation. This is a pervasive systematic problem. If the government (ie the people) isn't in control, then the rich are.

Could you imagine a company like Uber setting up employees as contractors getting away with that during FDR? The fact is that Uber didn't do anything amazing or special beyond leveraging a legal loophole that they've been exploiting from the beginning. They've managed to destroy 100's of small family-owned taxi companies, continue to lose billions of dollars, etc. all in the name of what,? Capitalism? If the US is the definition of Capitalism, then the US is broken.

 

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