Author Topic: And I give you MinimalFiRE: 5% SWR with 60/40 asset allocation and no buffer  (Read 1690 times)

FIREin2018

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Lets say your annual spend = $40k/yr.
At SWR = 5%, you only need $800k in funds to FiRE.
But you start MinimalFiRE at SWR = 4.75% ($842k) then gradually increase to SWR to 5%. The reason is below:

This article says Many financial advisers say that 5% SWR allows for a more comfortable lifestyle while adding only a little more risk:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp

And this site says an asset allocation of 60% stock/40% bonds returns 8% avg over a 30yr period:
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/stocks-bonds-60-40/#:~:text=In%20the%20last%2030%20Years,with%20a%209.61%25%20standard%20deviation

Lets say 3% avg inflation so 5% actual avg gain.
$800k x 5% = $40k, which is your annual spend (adjusted for inflation).

To mitigate SORR, build a Bond Tent.
5yrs before you MinimalFiRE, increase Bonds to 50%.
Then during your FiRE, only draw down from Bonds till you're at 40%.

This is the reason i say 4.75% SWR to start your FiRE journey instead of 5%.
That .25% extra cash ($42k) is to make up for the slightly lower portfolio return because Bonds > 40% during your first 5yrs of FiRE.

5yrs after FiRE, you should be at $800k funds (inflation adjusted) and the gains from your 60/40 asset allocation should cover your spend.
And later in life you actually  do get a buffer in the form of social security.

How's my MinimalFiRE? (Lets call it MinFiRE for short)

Edit:
Want to add something about flexibility. (Thx MetalCat)
The more flexible you are, the more you can MinFiRE.
ie: Go back to work (full time or part time) or cut expenses

« Last Edit: December 30, 2023, 09:54:29 AM by FIREin2018 »

2Birds1Stone

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Dude...... you're losing it lately.

ender

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What's your question here?

The biggest factor to whether any FIRE plan is successful or not is flexibility.

Metalcat

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You already FIREd with a buffer.

What is this fixation on figuring out how much less you could have retired on? What is motivating this?

FIREin2018

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You already FIREd with a buffer.

What is this fixation on figuring out how much less you could have retired on? What is motivating this?
I discovered this month (5yrs after I Fired at age 47) that I could have Fired sooner.
So I wanted to know what the bare minimum was to Fire.
I thought I'd share my findings

curious_george

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Every time I read these sorts of posts I feel like I should just go ahead and quit my job and FIRE now. Lol.

mistymoney

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Every time I read these sorts of posts I feel like I should just go ahead and quit my job and FIRE now. Lol.

let's look into my crystal ball.......tell me what the sp500 returns for the next 3 years will be, and I will answer your questions......

Metalcat

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You already FIREd with a buffer.

What is this fixation on figuring out how much less you could have retired on? What is motivating this?
I discovered this month (5yrs after I Fired at age 47) that I could have Fired sooner.
So I wanted to know what the bare minimum was to Fire.
I thought I'd share my findings

There is no "bare minimum" to FIRE, there are only risk tolerances and risk hedges.

As we already discussed, market risks are just one retirement risk, the much larger risk is actually personal risks where circumstances change and require you to spend differently.

The lower and tighter your budget, the more vulnerable it is to even minor lifestyle risks. So say you lose your ability to walk properly all of a sudden like I did and biking and even public transportation become unrealistic. If you have a super tight 25K budget, adding even a used car is going to be a massive increase in your spending. Hell, even adding s free car will still significantly up your withdrawal rate. However, if you have a lot of fat in your budget, you can more easily reallocate money to the cost of the car.

Is losing your ability to walk probable? No, but it literally happened to me recently, so it's an easy example for me to come up with. There are plenty of lifestyle changes that can push you to spend a few thousand each year.

If you can easily and happily pick up part time work, that's also is a very powerful hedge, especially if it's well paid.

The more flexibility and hedges you have, the less you really need to retire on. The more rigid, the more you need extra money as a hedge because it's the only one you have.

So what the "bare minimum" to FIRE on is the bare minimum that hedges your various risks to a point where you are comfortable with the risk profile.

Based on your previous threads, you indicated that your budget was extremely inflexible. To me this tells me that unless you have the ability to easily pick up work, then having the buffer you did was a very good idea.

Ron Scott

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If you're not really FI, and RE is just Plan A, and you're not loosing much earnings potential by staying out of the workforce for a bunch of years, you should be fine.

You just don't need all that research and math tho...

ATtiny85

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Uh, asked and answered?

If you knew (know?) the future, naturally you would set things up to spend and to die with whatever level of assets you wanted.

FIREin2018

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Every time I read these sorts of posts I feel like I should just go ahead and quit my job and FIRE now. Lol.

let's look into my crystal ball.......tell me what the sp500 returns for the next 3 years will be, and I will answer your questions......

That's why you set up a bond tent shortly before you Fire incase there's a bad stock market in the first few years after you FiRE
« Last Edit: December 30, 2023, 10:06:49 AM by FIREin2018 »