Author Topic: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (info on calculator updates)  (Read 23423 times)

Dicey

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #50 on: August 13, 2018, 06:07:36 AM »
Don't like this calculator--it doesn't tell me I can retire now.

Otherwise, great work.
Lol, it told me I could retire 2.7 years ago. Funny, it's been five and a half years. Good thing I didn't see this before I pulled the trigger!

tipster350

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #51 on: August 13, 2018, 06:27:17 AM »
I like the calculator. I bookmarked it. Thanks for posting.

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #52 on: August 13, 2018, 11:42:16 AM »
Don't like this calculator--it doesn't tell me I can retire now.

Otherwise, great work.
Lol, it told me I could retire 2.7 years ago. Funny, it's been five and a half years. Good thing I didn't see this before I pulled the trigger!


Hmm, I'm confused by this. How are you using it to compare to your actual FIRE path?  Also, it just tells you when you are likely to reach your FIRE target.  Is your calculated FIRE target different from the one you actually used?  Or did you just get there faster than the calculator projects?

LoanShark

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #53 on: August 13, 2018, 12:12:09 PM »
Very helpful! Thanks for putting this together.

Dicey

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #54 on: August 14, 2018, 08:26:45 AM »
Don't like this calculator--it doesn't tell me I can retire now.

Otherwise, great work.
Lol, it told me I could retire 2.7 years ago. Funny, it's been five and a half years. Good thing I didn't see this before I pulled the trigger!


Hmm, I'm confused by this. How are you using it to compare to your actual FIRE path?  Also, it just tells you when you are likely to reach your FIRE target.  Is your calculated FIRE target different from the one you actually used?  Or did you just get there faster than the calculator projects?
I just plugged in round numbers so I could play with the cool new toy. IRL, DH is still working, so we're not touching the 'stache at all. Truth is, once the 'stache gets big enough, it establishes its own velocity and I just try not to fall off. So far, so good.

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #55 on: August 16, 2018, 01:27:01 AM »
A (relatively small) update to the calculator.  I added a button that will generate a specific URL to the scenario inputs and graph choices that you are running.  It will allow easier sharing of specific calculator scenarios with others.  Hopefully this is useful and please continue to make suggestions if you have anything specific you'd like to see.


i.e.
https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/?age=29&initsav=45000&spend=45000&initinc=95000&wr=4&ir=1&retspend=44000&stockpct=90&fixpct=8&cashpct=2&graph=hist&secgraph=2&stockrtn=8.1&bondrtn=2.4&MCstockrtn=8.1&MCbondrtn=2.4

edited to add: to reset the settings to the default just get rid of everything after (and including) the "?"
i.e. just go back to https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/
« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 01:42:43 AM by CCCA »

Aelias

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #56 on: August 16, 2018, 12:28:13 PM »
Great job putting this together.  I was playing with it the other day, but now it appears to be . . . gone?  Hope it's just my system.

JoJo

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #57 on: August 16, 2018, 04:57:38 PM »
I says I could retire 6 years ago.  You should create a funny graphic that pops up and says "Why T.F. are you still working???"

doneby35

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@ender -- I think the main piece of data you have to get right is the savings amount. I just set up my income and current spending to represent my actual level of savings (pre- and post-tax). I haven't played with it yet, but my guess is that as long as the savings number is the same, your results will be the same. I.e., 100k income and 50k current spending will give you same answers as 150k income and 100k spending.

I know that.

It's just really weird to have to put pretax savings into a posttax income description.

Maybe my problem with this is having a UX background where things that aren't clear but could be irrationally bothers me... :-)
Sorry for the confusion. The box should represent your income with taxes removed. That’s why I called it post tax income.  But it also includes your employer contribution to 401k.

If you can think of a better name for it, let me know.

Hovering over post-tax income shows a description, maybe you can add it there showing "current income is your current post-tax annual income + any pre-tax contributions such as 401k and HSA".

LG89

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@ender -- I think the main piece of data you have to get right is the savings amount. I just set up my income and current spending to represent my actual level of savings (pre- and post-tax). I haven't played with it yet, but my guess is that as long as the savings number is the same, your results will be the same. I.e., 100k income and 50k current spending will give you same answers as 150k income and 100k spending.

I know that.

It's just really weird to have to put pretax savings into a posttax income description.

Maybe my problem with this is having a UX background where things that aren't clear but could be irrationally bothers me... :-)
Sorry for the confusion. The box should represent your income with taxes removed. That’s why I called it post tax income.  But it also includes your employer contribution to 401k.

If you can think of a better name for it, let me know.

Hovering over post-tax income shows a description, maybe you can add it there showing "current income is your current post-tax annual income + any pre-tax contributions such as 401k and HSA".

Yes this is a good idea. I also thought it wasn't clear and didn't add in my 401k (since that's PRE tax for me). This would help clarify things. I agree with ender, not intuitive or clear to put in pre tax amounts in with the post tax box.

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #60 on: August 22, 2018, 11:05:03 AM »
ok
@ender -- I think the main piece of data you have to get right is the savings amount. I just set up my income and current spending to represent my actual level of savings (pre- and post-tax). I haven't played with it yet, but my guess is that as long as the savings number is the same, your results will be the same. I.e., 100k income and 50k current spending will give you same answers as 150k income and 100k spending.

I know that.

It's just really weird to have to put pretax savings into a posttax income description.

Maybe my problem with this is having a UX background where things that aren't clear but could be irrationally bothers me... :-)
Sorry for the confusion. The box should represent your income with taxes removed. That’s why I called it post tax income.  But it also includes your employer contribution to 401k.

If you can think of a better name for it, let me know.

Hovering over post-tax income shows a description, maybe you can add it there showing "current income is your current post-tax annual income + any pre-tax contributions such as 401k and HSA".

Yes this is a good idea. I also thought it wasn't clear and didn't add in my 401k (since that's PRE tax for me). This would help clarify things. I agree with ender, not intuitive or clear to put in pre tax amounts in with the post tax box.


Okay I modified the label to be "Income (-taxes)" and changed the hover text to be more descriptive.  Hope that makes things clearer.

doneby35

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #61 on: August 22, 2018, 11:35:33 AM »
Sweet, now it's perfection.

MrTinystache

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #62 on: August 22, 2018, 01:03:02 PM »
Really nice calculator.  One thing that is a little confusing is that it says current savings,  but when you mouse over for more info it says annual savings.  I think current savings should be changed to say annual savings.  Again nice job. 

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2018, 01:07:54 PM »
Really nice calculator.  One thing that is a little confusing is that it says current savings,  but when you mouse over for more info it says annual savings.  I think current savings should be changed to say annual savings.  Again nice job.


sure, done!  :)

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #64 on: August 30, 2018, 12:00:31 PM »
I post sometimes on reddit's r/financialindependence subreddit and posted my calculator there in response to some people's questions about when they can retire.   Someone really liked it and posted a great thread on the calculator introducing it and asking the moderators of the subreddit to put it on their sidebar.  So now it's posted on the subreddits sidebar alongside cfiresim and firecalc!

I've been busy with some work-related stuff but I've got some updates to the calculator that I'm working on and should hopefully post here in a week or two.

DreamFIRE

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #65 on: August 30, 2018, 12:55:53 PM »

Since I'm not able to enter my SS income for 16 years into the future, I just enter my my current stash and  expected FIRE expenses including taxes as they are today, and it says I have 0 years until I can FIRE using a 3.65% SWR with a 60/40 AA and reduced stock/bond gains vs. the default.

The rich, broke, or dead one lets you add retirement income like SS and provides another look at the portfolio:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rich-broke-or-dead-visualizing-probabilities-of-outcomes-in-early-retirement/msg2087404/#msg2087404

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #66 on: September 19, 2018, 04:24:06 PM »
I finally have an update for the calculator.  I added a sensitivity analysis that runs the calculator several times while changing your spending in a range between +/- 20% of your indicated spending to see how that changes your time to retirement.

https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/?graph=hist&secgraph=3

Try it out and let me know what you think!
« Last Edit: September 19, 2018, 04:27:23 PM by CCCA »

Shaz_Au

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #67 on: September 19, 2018, 07:32:35 PM »
Thank you!
That new feature really gives you a good idea how much that OMY syndrome is going to make.

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #68 on: September 24, 2018, 12:11:48 PM »
Thank you!
That new feature really gives you a good idea how much that OMY syndrome is going to make.


The spending change shown is focused on changes in spending before retirement.  Not on how much you can spend after retirement.  I will make that clear. 

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #69 on: October 15, 2018, 03:23:48 PM »
Updated the calculator to be more mobile friendly.  It's definitely easier to use on a computer or tablet, but should work much better than before on a phone. 

I also added a small additional parameter (tax rate during retirement).  This increases your fire target amount, since your withdrawals will exceed your spending by this tax amount.   

I've got some other additions planned in the near future (mostly sensitivity related).
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 10:58:44 AM by CCCA »

CCCA

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Re: A new interactive "When can I FIRE?" calculator (MMM tweeted about it!)
« Reply #70 on: November 09, 2018, 11:02:57 AM »
Another update to the calculator:
this one adds another sensitivity analysis to the calculator, based on varying stock returns (for a single case and for the monte carlo simulation).
If you pick a constant stock return (e.g 8.1%), it will calculate your time to retirement using a bunch of different returns from 60% lower (i.e. 3.2%) all the way up to 60% higher (12.9%).  For the monte carlo simulation, it does the same but shifting the mean of the distribution to these levels before drawing the annual returns that go into the model and then running a retirement cycle thousands of times. 


CCCA

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My fire calculator has been mentioned in a CNBC article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/27/how-to-figure-out-how-much-money-you-need-to-retire-early.html


Overall, it's a pretty good article.

BussoV6

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Nice work CCCA. I really like the new changes!  Thanks again for the useful work, much appreciated.

Buffaloski Boris

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Very cool. I got a kick out of it as it’s the first calculator I’ve seen that gives you a timeframe. It says I was FI already. I suspected as much.

One thing I did find a challenge was dealing with income in retirement. For those of us with pensions and/ or side gigs etc. Had to play with the numbers. But that’s fine. No such thing as a calculator that will encapsulate all weird scenarios.

CCCA

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Nice work CCCA. I really like the new changes!  Thanks again for the useful work, much appreciated.

Thanks for the kind words.

Very cool. I got a kick out of it as it’s the first calculator I’ve seen that gives you a timeframe. It says I was FI already. I suspected as much.

One thing I did find a challenge was dealing with income in retirement. For those of us with pensions and/ or side gigs etc. Had to play with the numbers. But that’s fine. No such thing as a calculator that will encapsulate all weird scenarios.

Thanks.  If you are modeling retirement (and not accumulation) you should use the post-retirement calculator ("Rich, Broke or Dead") that was inspired by something @maizeman put together.  It will allow you to model pensions and other income scenarios. 

Also, the same article was picked up by USA today. 
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/29/retirement-how-much-money-you-need-retire-early/1593997001/ 

fuzzy math

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Congrats on getting some web traffic!!!

I like the updated histograms and sensitivity graphs. Thanks for all your hard work allowing dorks to be able to visualize neat things.

MrsStubble

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Nice!  God i hope its true because it says we have 3 years to go

CCCA

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« Last Edit: September 30, 2020, 12:39:14 PM by CCCA »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!