Author Topic: A lack of NEW Converts?!  (Read 15534 times)

coppertop

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #100 on: July 01, 2021, 08:12:54 AM »
My father, who is 90 years old this year, was convinced that my husband and I were going to starve to death on the streets if we stopped working.  I didn't argue with him, but four years later, he doesn't bring it up at all because he can see that we are doing fine with our lifestyle. Apparently there was a lot of chatter out of our hearing in my husband's family too, which thankfully I didn't find out about until a couple of years later.

In your father's defense, his age would mean he was a child of the Great Depression.  While he may not have vivid memories of that time, it is almost certain that his mindset was heavily influenced by the economic impacts of that downturn on his family and the society around him.  He also would have lived through the slow painful slog of the 70s and 80s during some of his peak earning years.
Yes, he and my late mother were both impoverished children during the Great Depression.  One of my father's "sayings" is "We had milk and mush for breakfast, milk and mush for lunch, and for a change at dinner, we had mush and milk."  But although he left high school in order to join the service during the Korean Conflict and later obtained a GED, he did quite well for himself in the post-WWII years, and he and my stepmother have quite a comfortable cushion between them.  He also retired quite early himself; the apples don't fall far from the tree when it comes to frugal living and growing one's assets.  He has a lot of fears for his own children, and his anxiety is probably directly related to his unstable upbringing. 

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #101 on: July 01, 2021, 08:45:05 AM »
Wait, you saved/earned 309k in a year where the primary breadwinner lost their job? Sounds pretty badass.

Correct. We broke even on earnings / spending and wound down an overloaded checking account while maxing the 401k for tax advantage and receiving three stimulus checks. The 309k trailing twelve months investment performance is a demonstration of base effects. I.e. 12 months ago we had just suddenly lost a quarter million, lol. Our savings rate before stimulus checks and tax refunds was near zero in 2020 but Mint says we’re up 309k.

There is an important lesson here for people citing one-year increases in inflation or high PE ratios. Don’t measure from the bottom of a dip and then draw broad conclusions. :)

The point being, there was never a better year to be a mustachian than 2020. The proof is in; all hell can break loose and this lifestyle will let you coast through it unharmed. 2021 is looking good too.
Lol, in 2008, I decided to embark on a year of austerity and throw all I could into the stock market. Turns out 2008 was was a pretty damn good year for being a mustachian, even though the term hadn't been invented yet. Good work @ChpBstrd

FiveSigmas

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #102 on: July 01, 2021, 11:25:26 AM »

1601 newly registered forum members this year.   
1832 joined the forum in 2012.
5205 joined in 2015.

The numbers can be computed from the show membership list feature.
A few years ago, when the forum was really, really slow, they deleted accounts which had been around for a while, and hadn’t been accessed for a while, and had zero posts. The forum went much faster after that. I have a feeling that there may have been further culling periodically since. As a result, the numbers don’t reflect the past popularity of the forum.

Ah, yeah. I had forgotten about that. Good point!

markbike528CBX

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #103 on: July 01, 2021, 01:01:01 PM »

1601 newly registered forum members this year.   
1832 joined the forum in 2012.
5205 joined in 2015.

The numbers can be computed from the show membership list feature.
A few years ago, when the forum was really, really slow, they deleted accounts which had been around for a while, and hadn’t been accessed for a while, and had zero posts. The forum went much faster after that. I have a feeling that there may have been further culling periodically since. As a result, the numbers don’t reflect the past popularity of the forum.

While the numbers won't reflect the new-in-that-year users, I would suggest that zero or few posts does not reflect "popularity" either.  Deleting those users won't change the active, engaged user numbers.

JGS1980

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #104 on: July 01, 2021, 01:13:26 PM »
Quote
Stimulus money and work from home 2020 year has less people starting in debt, and more starting with heftier savings accounts?

I would say FIRE is at odds with the mood of the day. Of course, it always is. But now more than ever.

The current mood is about low interest rates, big debt, free money, getting out of the house, going shopping, going on vacation. Savers are not being rewarded by current government policies.

When in the last 20 years (since I've been an adult) have government policies ever rewarded savers? I only see policies that reward INVESTORS or BUSINESS OWNERS.

FiveSigmas

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #105 on: July 01, 2021, 02:14:51 PM »
Quote
Stimulus money and work from home 2020 year has less people starting in debt, and more starting with heftier savings accounts?

I would say FIRE is at odds with the mood of the day. Of course, it always is. But now more than ever.

The current mood is about low interest rates, big debt, free money, getting out of the house, going shopping, going on vacation. Savers are not being rewarded by current government policies.

When in the last 20 years (since I've been an adult) have government policies ever rewarded savers? I only see policies that reward INVESTORS or BUSINESS OWNERS.

I know I'm answering a rhetorical question, but...

I've seen increases in state and local sales taxes, which effectively encourage non-spending. There are also federal sin taxes that are specifically designed to discourage folks from spending money on stupid shit.

JGS1980

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #106 on: July 01, 2021, 02:43:00 PM »
Quote
Stimulus money and work from home 2020 year has less people starting in debt, and more starting with heftier savings accounts?

I would say FIRE is at odds with the mood of the day. Of course, it always is. But now more than ever.

The current mood is about low interest rates, big debt, free money, getting out of the house, going shopping, going on vacation. Savers are not being rewarded by current government policies.

When in the last 20 years (since I've been an adult) have government policies ever rewarded savers? I only see policies that reward INVESTORS or BUSINESS OWNERS.
401ks? IRAs? Government 457s?

Hi Spartana, haven't all of those been around for quite a while anyway?

FiveSigmas, I'm not so sure that sin taxes are outweighed by the massive proliferation of casinos across this country, which are, I believe, the opposite of sin taxes. I'm all for tobacco and alcohol taxes, regardless, due to the long term health impacts.

maizefolk

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #107 on: July 01, 2021, 02:52:03 PM »
A policy that continues to reward savers strikes me as the government rewarding savers, even if it's been in place for a long time.

The charitable tax deduction has been around since who knows when, but I'd still see that as a government policy encouraging charitable donation.

NorthernIkigai

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #108 on: July 02, 2021, 03:38:46 AM »

1601 newly registered forum members this year.   
1832 joined the forum in 2012.
5205 joined in 2015.

The numbers can be computed from the show membership list feature.
I think a big influx of new people happened right after MMM "came out" as a real life Fired boy named Pete Adney and did several interviews (in person on TV as well as written articles) with main stream media. I'm not sure when that happened but it really drew a crowd of noobs to the blog and forum. Back then there were few FIRE blogger who had retired as young as MMM, on lower assessors and income, and who had been living the FIRE life successfully for years before even starting the blog. Now there are more bloggers (all boring compared to MMM imho!) so I imagine people interested in FI or RE are spread thinner now.

Also the app. I signed up years ago the old way but probably wouldn't have if I had to do it via an app. Some people I recommended the forums to also didn't create an account for that reason .

As far as I can remember, there wasn't any way of signing up when I first wanted to do it one or two years ago. There was simply a text stating that there had been to many spam accounts and they were looking for a way to solve the problem. Next time I checked, the app was given as a possibility. So comparing across different times when signing up was vastly different isn't really meaningful in my opinion.

NorthernIkigai

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #109 on: July 02, 2021, 03:42:37 AM »
I always have to laugh when raising taxes on nonessential products is seen as increasing the tax burden of the middle class. The government isn't forcing you to fork out that money (incl. the bit spent on the taxes), people, it's OK not to spend on those products even if you can!

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #110 on: July 03, 2021, 12:51:48 PM »
I always have to laugh when raising taxes on nonessential products is seen as increasing the tax burden of the middle class. The government isn't forcing you to fork out that money (incl. the bit spent on the taxes), people, it's OK not to spend on those products even if you can!
Me, too. I also love sin taxes. My state taxes the shit out of tobacco products and fewer people die. Win-win-win.

PDXTabs

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #111 on: July 03, 2021, 10:50:24 PM »
I always have to laugh when raising taxes on nonessential products is seen as increasing the tax burden of the middle class. The government isn't forcing you to fork out that money (incl. the bit spent on the taxes), people, it's OK not to spend on those products even if you can!
Me, too. I also love sin taxes. My state taxes the shit out of tobacco products and fewer people die. Win-win-win.

It's win-win for revenue and life. It's actually net negative for social security as people live longer and collect more benefits.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/02/27/not-smoking-could-be-hazardous-to-pension-system/0c2151ba-c38a-400d-aab5-bd45a5ba80ec/

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #112 on: July 04, 2021, 12:51:57 AM »
I always have to laugh when raising taxes on nonessential products is seen as increasing the tax burden of the middle class. The government isn't forcing you to fork out that money (incl. the bit spent on the taxes), people, it's OK not to spend on those products even if you can!
Me, too. I also love sin taxes. My state taxes the shit out of tobacco products and fewer people die. Win-win-win.

It's win-win for revenue and life. It's actually net negative for social security as people live longer and collect more benefits.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/02/27/not-smoking-could-be-hazardous-to-pension-system/0c2151ba-c38a-400d-aab5-bd45a5ba80ec/
Selfishly, the third win is for me. I can't stand cigarette smoke, I can't stand what secondhand smoke does to innocent people around smokers, especially children and I can't stand how big tobacco victimizes smokers. Do you know the tobacco will naturally burn itself out, but the tobacco industry wants to sell more cigarettes, so they formulate cigarettes so the tobacco doesn't stop burning? Any idea how many innocent victims die in fires ignited by burning cigarettes?

A "negative" for social security? Huh???

FIPurpose

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #113 on: July 04, 2021, 08:06:58 AM »
I always have to laugh when raising taxes on nonessential products is seen as increasing the tax burden of the middle class. The government isn't forcing you to fork out that money (incl. the bit spent on the taxes), people, it's OK not to spend on those products even if you can!
Me, too. I also love sin taxes. My state taxes the shit out of tobacco products and fewer people die. Win-win-win.

It's win-win for revenue and life. It's actually net negative for social security as people live longer and collect more benefits.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/02/27/not-smoking-could-be-hazardous-to-pension-system/0c2151ba-c38a-400d-aab5-bd45a5ba80ec/
Selfishly, the third win is for me. I can't stand cigarette smoke, I can't stand what secondhand smoke does to innocent people around smokers, especially children and I can't stand how big tobacco victimizes smokers. Do you know the tobacco will naturally burn itself out, but the tobacco industry wants to sell more cigarettes, so they formulate cigarettes so the tobacco doesn't stop burning? Any idea how many innocent victims die in fires ignited by burning cigarettes?

A "negative" for social security? Huh???

The article is from 30 years ago when life expectancy was 75 and now it's trending down and around 78.5 now. They've raised the full pension 2 years since then. They also increased the SS tax in 1990 by 1.2%. I think they've more than covered any "loss" that tobacco taxes have caused.

Linea_Norway

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #114 on: July 05, 2021, 02:23:28 AM »
I always have to laugh when raising taxes on nonessential products is seen as increasing the tax burden of the middle class. The government isn't forcing you to fork out that money (incl. the bit spent on the taxes), people, it's OK not to spend on those products even if you can!
Me, too. I also love sin taxes. My state taxes the shit out of tobacco products and fewer people die. Win-win-win.

It's win-win for revenue and life. It's actually net negative for social security as people live longer and collect more benefits.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/02/27/not-smoking-could-be-hazardous-to-pension-system/0c2151ba-c38a-400d-aab5-bd45a5ba80ec/
Selfishly, the third win is for me. I can't stand cigarette smoke, I can't stand what secondhand smoke does to innocent people around smokers, especially children and I can't stand how big tobacco victimizes smokers. Do you know the tobacco will naturally burn itself out, but the tobacco industry wants to sell more cigarettes, so they formulate cigarettes so the tobacco doesn't stop burning? Any idea how many innocent victims die in fires ignited by burning cigarettes?

A "negative" for social security? Huh???

The government is the biggest motor begind getting people to act in a more healthy way. No smoking, moderate or no drinking, daily excerce, eating healthy food. They wouldn't do that if the gain (a healthier population) wasn't bigger than the cost (less persion to pay out). Maybe a heart transplant or lung cancer operation, including initial doctos's visits costs a lot more than a few years persion?
I guess a healthier population can also continue to keep working longer and generate revenue, while unhealthy people earlier need to go on some sickleave, or disabled handout. Maybe that is the biggest cost difference.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2021, 02:25:35 AM by Linea_Norway »

dougules

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #115 on: July 05, 2021, 11:23:28 AM »
Probably a better way of determining the popularity of the forums over time would be total number of posts per year instead of new sign-ups.  Is there any way to get that?

Watchmaker

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #116 on: July 06, 2021, 09:21:31 AM »
Probably a better way of determining the popularity of the forums over time would be total number of posts per year instead of new sign-ups.  Is there any way to get that?

There was a stats page that someone linked to a couple years ago that had that information (at the time it showed declining activity). But I don't know where to find it or if it still works.

PDXTabs

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #117 on: July 06, 2021, 10:52:37 AM »
It's win-win for revenue and life. It's actually net negative for social security as people live longer and collect more benefits.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/02/27/not-smoking-could-be-hazardous-to-pension-system/0c2151ba-c38a-400d-aab5-bd45a5ba80ec/
Selfishly, the third win is for me. I can't stand cigarette smoke, I can't stand what secondhand smoke does to innocent people around smokers, especially children and I can't stand how big tobacco victimizes smokers. Do you know the tobacco will naturally burn itself out, but the tobacco industry wants to sell more cigarettes, so they formulate cigarettes so the tobacco doesn't stop burning? Any idea how many innocent victims die in fires ignited by burning cigarettes?

A "negative" for social security? Huh???

The government is the biggest motor begind getting people to act in a more healthy way. No smoking, moderate or no drinking, daily excerce, eating healthy food. They wouldn't do that if the gain (a healthier population) wasn't bigger than the cost (less persion to pay out). Maybe a heart transplant or lung cancer operation, including initial doctos's visits costs a lot more than a few years persion?
I guess a healthier population can also continue to keep working longer and generate revenue, while unhealthy people earlier need to go on some sickleave, or disabled handout. Maybe that is the biggest cost difference.

For the record I'm fully in support of incentivizing people to stay healthy and happy, and tobacco use is associated with neither. But if the US of A cared about health outcomes for all its citizens it would be a wildly different place than it is today, mainly around transportation, physical activity, diet, and obesity.

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #118 on: July 06, 2021, 11:51:09 AM »
Probably a better way of determining the popularity of the forums over time would be total number of posts per year instead of new sign-ups.  Is there any way to get that?

There was a stats page that someone linked to a couple years ago that had that information (at the time it showed declining activity). But I don't know where to find it or if it still works.
People who take down their posts can skew that number. Some folks strike their old journals when they begin a new one, or remove other posts for personal reasons.

ender

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #119 on: July 06, 2021, 12:14:58 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?

ender

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #120 on: July 06, 2021, 12:15:06 PM »
Yeah, this one is sequentially numbered after my previous one so that theory seems plausible.

RWD

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #121 on: July 06, 2021, 02:35:17 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Yeah, this one is sequentially numbered after my previous one so that theory seems plausible.
Ah, good observation. I quickly went through one of the oldest, longest running threads to get some numbers.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/say-hi-and-introduce-yourself/

2012:                 993
2013:             57524 (+56,531)
2014:           222589 (+165,065)
2015:           558816 (+336,227)
2016:           981249 (+422,733)
2017:         1437673 (+456,424)
2018:         1902794 (+465,121)
2019:         2302548 (+399,754)
2020:         2563505 (+260,957)
2021:         2794164 (+230,659)

It appears the forum was most active in 2017 and has declined quite a bit since then (roughly half the number of posts).

FIPurpose

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #122 on: July 06, 2021, 03:09:10 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Yeah, this one is sequentially numbered after my previous one so that theory seems plausible.
Ah, good observation. I quickly went through one of the oldest, longest running threads to get some numbers.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/say-hi-and-introduce-yourself/

2012:                 993
2013:             57524 (+56,531)
2014:           222589 (+165,065)
2015:           558816 (+336,227)
2016:           981249 (+422,733)
2017:         1437673 (+456,424)
2018:         1902794 (+465,121)
2019:         2302548 (+399,754)
2020:         2563505 (+260,957)
2021:         2794164 (+230,659)

It appears the forum was most active in 2017 and has declined quite a bit since then (roughly half the number of posts).

I know most of the regular posters here don't really read the blog anymore. (There's a blog?) But Pete really has dropped the number of posts he's making as well.

2021: 3 (so far)
2020: 10
2019: 11
2018: 13
2017: 18
2016: 21
2015: 28

I get that people only have so much to say, but driving traffic to a blog requires constant attention. What are people talking about? What's the latest drama in your blog niche? What are some of the more recent trends? Google demands newer content!

This is true of most blogs I've read. People like writing them for 4-5 years and then they are done. The difference here though is that MMM landed on a goldmine of a blog, so it's almost a little sad to see it dwindling when he could have built it up a bit more and sold for 4-5MM.

ender

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #123 on: July 06, 2021, 03:21:41 PM »
I mostly tell people to look at the blog from when it started to around 2014 or so.

For me, that's when the essence of FIRE was in the blog.

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #124 on: July 06, 2021, 03:27:51 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Not sure this is true. If someone deletes their journal, for example, their post count drops, which I've never agreed with, but the mods say that's just how it is, so I suspect it changes the post count figures, too. I think even if one's post count drops, their Moustache Level should be maintained, but apparently it doesn't work that way either.

I was just reading a journal where it appears from context that someone has deleted themselves from the conversation. There are no gaps in the post count, so I suspect the numbers correct themselves when content is deleted.

RWD

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #125 on: July 06, 2021, 03:30:42 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Not sure this is true. If someone deletes their journal, for example, their post count drops, which I've never agreed with, but the mods say that's just how it is, so I suspect it changes the post count figures, too. I think even if one's post count drops, their Moustache Level should be maintained, but apparently it doesn't work that way either.

I was just reading a journal where it appears from context that someone has deleted themselves from the conversation. There are no gaps in the post count, so I suspect the numbers correct themselves when content is deleted.
The post count of the poster and the post # in a thread are not what ender is talking about. There is a permalink on every post (links from the post title) that is numbered. That can't change because then it would break the permalinks. So I think it is a safe representation of total post count on the forums, deleted or not.

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #126 on: July 06, 2021, 05:58:26 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Not sure this is true. If someone deletes their journal, for example, their post count drops, which I've never agreed with, but the mods say that's just how it is, so I suspect it changes the post count figures, too. I think even if one's post count drops, their Moustache Level should be maintained, but apparently it doesn't work that way either.

I was just reading a journal where it appears from context that someone has deleted themselves from the conversation. There are no gaps in the post count, so I suspect the numbers correct themselves when content is deleted.
The post count of the poster and the post # in a thread are not what ender is talking about. There is a permalink on every post (links from the post title) that is numbered. That can't change because then it would break the permalinks. So I think it is a safe representation of total post count on the forums, deleted or not.
Got it. Makes sense. Thanks!

maizefolk

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #127 on: July 06, 2021, 06:02:27 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Yeah, this one is sequentially numbered after my previous one so that theory seems plausible.
Ah, good observation. I quickly went through one of the oldest, longest running threads to get some numbers.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/say-hi-and-introduce-yourself/

2012:                 993
2013:             57524 (+56,531)
2014:           222589 (+165,065)
2015:           558816 (+336,227)
2016:           981249 (+422,733)
2017:         1437673 (+456,424)
2018:         1902794 (+465,121)
2019:         2302548 (+399,754)
2020:         2563505 (+260,957)
2021:         2794164 (+230,659)

It appears the forum was most active in 2017 and has declined quite a bit since then (roughly half the number of posts).

This is a really cool stat to have. Thank you both for coming up with the approach and extracted the values. Is this roughly July-July?

Interesting to me that there seems to have been a really big drop between '19 and '20 (33% decline year over year) with comparatively slower declines on either side of it (16% and 12%).

RWD

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #128 on: July 06, 2021, 08:23:52 PM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Yeah, this one is sequentially numbered after my previous one so that theory seems plausible.
Ah, good observation. I quickly went through one of the oldest, longest running threads to get some numbers.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/say-hi-and-introduce-yourself/

2012:                 993
2013:             57524 (+56,531)
2014:           222589 (+165,065)
2015:           558816 (+336,227)
2016:           981249 (+422,733)
2017:         1437673 (+456,424)
2018:         1902794 (+465,121)
2019:         2302548 (+399,754)
2020:         2563505 (+260,957)
2021:         2794164 (+230,659)

It appears the forum was most active in 2017 and has declined quite a bit since then (roughly half the number of posts).

This is a really cool stat to have. Thank you both for coming up with the approach and extracted the values. Is this roughly July-July?

Interesting to me that there seems to have been a really big drop between '19 and '20 (33% decline year over year) with comparatively slower declines on either side of it (16% and 12%).

February 17, 2012 - February 17, 2021. There have been an additional ~74k posts since then, which means 2021 is on track to continue the decline (extrapolates to ~190k annual posts).

Dicey

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #129 on: July 07, 2021, 01:47:23 AM »
Does ^this^ mean the bottom is in?

Linea_Norway

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #130 on: July 07, 2021, 04:35:11 AM »
Does ^this^ mean the bottom is in?

Should we invest in forum stocks against low price, in the hope that it goes up later?

ender

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #131 on: July 07, 2021, 05:38:34 AM »
I'd be surprised if many forums aren't dying overall.

I know this forum has lost a lot of its vibrancy. I don't remember when the exodus of a lot of the more active posters was but I think that 2018 is roughly when I feel that group left.

shelivesthedream

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #132 on: July 07, 2021, 09:43:28 AM »
I went through a period of "get off my lawn!" type frustration with the forum where it felt like there was a big influx of new users who didn't "get it" and everyone was patting each other on the back for "spending according to their values" on cars, restaurants, etc. I've kind of come through that and appreciate being a longstanding member in a modestly sized forum such that I know the "backstory" to some extent of most of the posters I regularly encounter. I hate the huge anonymity of Reddit. These days I come here for the conversation, not the information. I think the mods do a good job but more than that, I think the core community does a good job of politely self-policing. People call out "bad stuff" all the time without it descending into a flame war.

That said, by the sounds of things I wouldn't register these days. I've seen repeated posts from people saying they have to answer security questions for every post. *I* know it stops after a few posts, but *they* apparently don't.

And downloading an app? Yeesh, I hate that even more than everything being on Facebook. Everything has to have its own app these days. My midwife asked me to download an app in my first appointment! I asked if any of my care was provided through it. Nope. So no app for me. I went to Costa the other day and was supposed to download their app for covid tracking and tracing. Nope! Drives me nuts when things can only be done through an app - or, worse, when people imply it and there's a perfectly serviceable website. My cheap smartphone cannot handle the app load that modern life wants me to deal with on a daily basis.

I retain a Facebook account for the odd group, event or marketplace purchase. It's handy. I don't post anything on it any more. I still have friends, but unfollowed everyone so have a blank newsfeed. Best thing I ever did on Facebook  If I want to check up on someone, I have to purposefully search for their profile.

Also shocked that people still see ads these days! Free adblocker, people! I have one for my computer and one for my phone. Install once, virtually ad-free life forever.

FireLane

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #133 on: July 07, 2021, 10:59:55 AM »
Seems like the post count is a unique identifier though which probably always increases, even when posts are deleted.

Stuff like https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/a-lack-of-new-converts!/msg2868281/#msg2868281 showing "2868281" suggests thats some sort of ID for posts?
Yeah, this one is sequentially numbered after my previous one so that theory seems plausible.
Ah, good observation. I quickly went through one of the oldest, longest running threads to get some numbers.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/say-hi-and-introduce-yourself/

2012:                 993
2013:             57524 (+56,531)
2014:           222589 (+165,065)
2015:           558816 (+336,227)
2016:           981249 (+422,733)
2017:         1437673 (+456,424)
2018:         1902794 (+465,121)
2019:         2302548 (+399,754)
2020:         2563505 (+260,957)
2021:         2794164 (+230,659)

It appears the forum was most active in 2017 and has declined quite a bit since then (roughly half the number of posts).

Thanks for this data! This is really informative.

I agree that this could be related to the decline in MMM's blogging frequency. For better or for worse, Pete is the public face of the FIRE movement. When he wrote new posts frequently and got lots of media attention, he brought a steady stream of new followers to the blog and the forum. (I'm a case in point. 2015 is when I found out about MMM and FIRE.)

Now that he's stepped back to focus on his coworking space and other projects and doesn't post on the blog as often, it's expected that we'd get fewer new followers to replace the people who drift away.

Isn't there another finance forum, OMD or something, that a lot of our regulars migrated to? That could also contribute to the decreasing traffic.

frugal_c

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #134 on: July 07, 2021, 11:18:02 AM »
I find it less interesting because the focus has shifted to high income earners saving above average rates and focused on multi million stashes. Nothing wrong with that at all but it's less relatable for average Joe and actually a different theme. OG MMM was about getting a decent job and relentlessly focusing on non consumerism to keep expenses trim, which ultimately resulted in early retirement. That just isn't what most of the current crowd is doing. Their theme is more to make mega bucks and save some of it. They don't need to reject consumerism and obsess on spending the way MMM did.  Again not a criticism, I am closer to the new group, just not very interesting to read about. 
« Last Edit: July 07, 2021, 11:20:58 AM by frugal_c »

BicycleB

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #135 on: July 07, 2021, 02:38:27 PM »

Isn't there another finance forum, OMD or something, that a lot of our regulars migrated to? That could also contribute to the decreasing traffic.

A cluster of frequent posters went to Oh My Dollar (there's a lot of OMDs).

https://www.ohmydollar.com/
https://forum.ohmydollar.com/
« Last Edit: July 07, 2021, 02:39:59 PM by BicycleB »

FIreSurfer

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #136 on: July 07, 2021, 03:21:35 PM »
I find it less interesting because the focus has shifted to high income earners saving above average rates and focused on multi million stashes. Nothing wrong with that at all but it's less relatable for average Joe and actually a different theme. OG MMM was about getting a decent job and relentlessly focusing on non consumerism to keep expenses trim, which ultimately resulted in early retirement. That just isn't what most of the current crowd is doing. Their theme is more to make mega bucks and save some of it. They don't need to reject consumerism and obsess on spending the way MMM did.  Again not a criticism, I am closer to the new group, just not very interesting to read about.

Maybe's Pete's message worked TOO WELL? 
By which I mean:  Pete's (agreeably) relentless chant of "Put EVERYTHING in a Vanguard S&P500 Fund" coupled with the relentless march of the market since those peak Pete Blog Post days of 2015-2016.  Everyone I know, from my Wealth Manager aunt to my state pensioned parents to my junkie punk roommate told me it was a stupid plan, but 5 years later I (and many of us, judging from the comments in this thread) have prospered many times over off that advice. 

I still have a barebones cell phone plan, drive an ancient station wagon, and still check the CC bill every day, and have never paid interest on anything, but I absolutely will also admit that knowing that all those little green soldiers are winning yet another day in the market has made the serious "should we live in a Van and eat only garbanzo beans and foraged greens?" type thinking kinda go out the window.....having more means at my disposal definitely allows me to shop organic, avoid Amazon, and a number of other things that are ultimately (I hope) socially/environmentally conscious, but the (successful) investing end of this lifestyle definitely has had a serious effect.........

My point is: if we were in a different economic climate, would we be finding more people arriving at this forum in need of real serious frugality advice rather than it becoming a place where FATFIRE boasting occurs?  I want the S&P to keep climbing as much as we all do, but I do wonder if our little community has been a victim of its own success : ) ??

And IM(unasked for)HO - I think its great that Pete has moved on to other projects and blogs minimally, now that he has said what he needed to say- it would def. bother me if I felt he trying to publicly maintain the same persona/position as he was a half dozen years ago just for clicks, $, or clout......

NorthernIkigai

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #137 on: July 08, 2021, 12:47:47 AM »
My point is: if we were in a different economic climate, would we be finding more people arriving at this forum in need of real serious frugality advice rather than it becoming a place where FATFIRE boasting occurs?  I want the S&P to keep climbing as much as we all do, but I do wonder if our little community has been a victim of its own success : ) ??

This sounds like the kind of thing we'll find out eventually...

Unfortunately, at that point I expect the mainstream media to write articles about former FIRE savers whose portfolios have shrunk and who have become disillusioned by it all, and to completely ignore all those who are either happily retired with a safe rate of withdrawal or happily continuing to save. I mean, if the economy tanks, no one wants to be featured in an article saying "I'm doing fine, thanks, because I'm frugal and I saved a lot when times were good".

So I think the concept of FIRE will sound even more absurd to the general public when there is a crash/dip/recession. But I think those who get it will mostly continue to do just fine.

ChpBstrd

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #138 on: July 08, 2021, 03:44:31 PM »
I think MMM’s lack of posting is the cause of slowing growth / participation. It’s kinda weird to me, because, per his own words, MMM started his blog as an environmental social movement. Upon becoming extremely successful at doing exactly what he set out to do, he promptly slowed down to near stall speed.

I get it. Life gets in the way. Kids need all our time. Divorce happens. Side projects distract us. Internet stalkers and solicitors are annoying. But then again the megaphone that Pete built to do good is being under-utilized, and a lot less good is occurring as a result. People unwisely see nothing fresh going on and move elsewhere - often to consumerist / financial gambling websites or, even worse, that mulching mower of independent thought called social media.

I can’t tell Pete he should live his life for the benefit of internet randos, but there are lots of people in this world working their arses off trying to convince people to turn away from the waste of life and ecology that is consumerism, and they aren’t succeeding because they don’t have a platform like this, or Pete’s writing talent. He’s walking away from the chance to start an actual mass movement, involving millions of people, and transforming many of the stupidest things about our country / world.

Burnout is real, and it’s understandable if Pete has already written all he has to say and has a best life to live rather than repeating himself forever. But maybe he should hand off the blog to capable, trusted, and passionate hands. Run a banner ad to pay an editor’s salary. Let a group of new contributors make their names here. Switch from writing to organizing meetups and local groups in the physical world. Any of these is a preferable alternative to letting the world’s most important blog wind down. That would be a major loss.

PDXTabs

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #139 on: July 08, 2021, 04:40:22 PM »
I think MMM’s lack of posting is the cause of slowing growth / participation. It’s kinda weird to me, because, per his own words, MMM started his blog as an environmental social movement. Upon becoming extremely successful at doing exactly what he set out to do, he promptly slowed down to near stall speed.

Maybe he's already written everything that he has to say?

But I agree, I found MMM when The New Yorker published an article on him. I wouldn't have know otherwise.

dougules

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #140 on: July 09, 2021, 07:42:21 AM »
I think MMM’s lack of posting is the cause of slowing growth / participation. It’s kinda weird to me, because, per his own words, MMM started his blog as an environmental social movement. Upon becoming extremely successful at doing exactly what he set out to do, he promptly slowed down to near stall speed.

Maybe he's already written everything that he has to say?

But I agree, I found MMM when The New Yorker published an article on him. I wouldn't have know otherwise.

Is there anything to add that wouldn't be just rehashing old topics?

Another potential source of declines is that I get a sense that some old-timers drop off a lot when they actually hit FIRE.  Look at how quiet the post-FIRE section is.  I guess FIRE just isn't a topic on your mind when it turns into regular normal life and you move on to the next goal. 

FireLane

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #141 on: July 09, 2021, 12:39:05 PM »
I can’t tell Pete he should live his life for the benefit of internet randos, but there are lots of people in this world working their arses off trying to convince people to turn away from the waste of life and ecology that is consumerism, and they aren’t succeeding because they don’t have a platform like this, or Pete’s writing talent. He’s walking away from the chance to start an actual mass movement, involving millions of people, and transforming many of the stupidest things about our country / world.

Burnout is real, and it’s understandable if Pete has already written all he has to say and has a best life to live rather than repeating himself forever. But maybe he should hand off the blog to capable, trusted, and passionate hands. Run a banner ad to pay an editor’s salary. Let a group of new contributors make their names here. Switch from writing to organizing meetups and local groups in the physical world. Any of these is a preferable alternative to letting the world’s most important blog wind down. That would be a major loss.

I agree with this. The world would be a poorer place without MMM's voice in it.

I mean, I get it. The principles of FIRE are pretty simple. There's only so much you can say about them before you start repeating yourself. I would certainly understand if Pete feels that he's done the job he set out to do, that his older posts are just as applicable now as when they were written, and that it's on everyone else out there to heed the message. He has every right to "retire" from being MMM and to focus on living his own life the way he wants.

But he's built a big, influential platform, and it would be a shame for it to fall into disuse. The world still needs a regular dose of Mustachian philosophy, not just because it improves the lives of individuals, but because there's a collective benefit in steering society toward a less consumerist, more self-reliant, more environmentally friendly path. The consumerist masses have a bad habit of only paying attention to the newest and shiniest thing, and if a blog isn't being updated, many people will conclude that it must be outdated and no longer relevant - irrational though that is.

If Pete has said his piece, I'd be all in favor of him turning the site over to a team of guest contributors to keep it lively. I'm sure it wouldn't be difficult to find good writers from other FIRE blogs or from this very forum community.

ChpBstrd

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #142 on: July 09, 2021, 01:43:50 PM »
I think MMM’s lack of posting is the cause of slowing growth / participation. It’s kinda weird to me, because, per his own words, MMM started his blog as an environmental social movement. Upon becoming extremely successful at doing exactly what he set out to do, he promptly slowed down to near stall speed.

Maybe he's already written everything that he has to say?.

Is there anything to add that wouldn't be just rehashing old topics?

Another potential source of declines is that I get a sense that some old-timers drop off a lot when they actually hit FIRE.  Look at how quiet the post-FIRE section is.  I guess FIRE just isn't a topic on your mind when it turns into regular normal life and you move on to the next goal.

I suspect that 9 out of 10 people who read the blog, and maybe half the people who have forum accounts, have nodded their heads but then have not made sufficient lifestyle changes to retire within 10 years or in their 40’s. Most of us own too-big houses, too-big cars, and pay for too many services. Most of us are overweight, unable to run a mile, and spend too much of our lives staring at screens. Some are neglecting our kids and families, or drifting away from friends, to spend more time earning and spending. Therefore, there is more for MMM to say.

Some of us need repetition. Some need at least a weekly coach. Some need an underlying change in psychology and philosophy to reject the idea that happiness is a purchased good. Some need a supportive community as a bridge out of their social networks of people with leased BMWs and 50 mile commutes.

The successful among us need a post-FIRE goal. Some would take on the cause of expanding the cult if offered. Others need help rescuing their friends and loved ones so they have people with which to spend their newly free time.

Paper Chaser

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #143 on: July 10, 2021, 05:10:27 AM »
I think MMM’s lack of posting is the cause of slowing growth / participation. It’s kinda weird to me, because, per his own words, MMM started his blog as an environmental social movement. Upon becoming extremely successful at doing exactly what he set out to do, he promptly slowed down to near stall speed.

Maybe he's already written everything that he has to say?.

Is there anything to add that wouldn't be just rehashing old topics?

Another potential source of declines is that I get a sense that some old-timers drop off a lot when they actually hit FIRE.  Look at how quiet the post-FIRE section is.  I guess FIRE just isn't a topic on your mind when it turns into regular normal life and you move on to the next goal.

I suspect that 9 out of 10 people who read the blog, and maybe half the people who have forum accounts, have nodded their heads but then have not made sufficient lifestyle changes to retire within 10 years or in their 40’s. Most of us own too-big houses, too-big cars, and pay for too many services. Most of us are overweight, unable to run a mile, and spend too much of our lives staring at screens. Some are neglecting our kids and families, or drifting away from friends, to spend more time earning and spending. Therefore, there is more for MMM to say.

Some of us need repetition. Some need at least a weekly coach. Some need an underlying change in psychology and philosophy to reject the idea that happiness is a purchased good. Some need a supportive community as a bridge out of their social networks of people with leased BMWs and 50 mile commutes.

The successful among us need a post-FIRE goal. Some would take on the cause of expanding the cult if offered. Others need help rescuing their friends and loved ones so they have people with which to spend their newly free time.

That all sounds like a lot work and stress. The constant need to have more to say, to get more new converts, to grow the movement, to publish blog pieces on a schedule and stay 'fresh' seems like it would feel a lot like an unpleasant job at some point.  have to be truly passionate about making large scale societal change, rather than just sharing your story and throwing out the occasional blog when you're inspired to do so.

ender

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #144 on: July 10, 2021, 05:38:53 AM »

Another potential source of declines is that I get a sense that some old-timers drop off a lot when they actually hit FIRE.  Look at how quiet the post-FIRE section is.  I guess FIRE just isn't a topic on your mind when it turns into regular normal life and you move on to the next goal.

It's not just when you hit FIRE.

There's a point when everything is just autopilot.

DaMa

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #145 on: July 10, 2021, 07:59:08 AM »
Another potential source of declines is that I get a sense that some old-timers drop off a lot when they actually hit FIRE.  Look at how quiet the post-FIRE section is.  I guess FIRE just isn't a topic on your mind when it turns into regular normal life and you move on to the next goal.

I think that is primarily due to not working.  I kept up with forums during my work day when I had downtime or just needed a break.  I read far less often now, and mostly just the threads I follow.

Sanitary Stache

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #146 on: July 12, 2021, 04:30:57 AM »
I think of MMM as efficiency and optimization first, FIRE second. But I guess I generally ignore the part of FIRE he did before starting the blog. The part where he worked in jobs he didn't like because they were high paying and allowed him to build his stache.

I am not looking for more MMM.  I haven't finished the existing content.  Maybe I should go back a look for something I haven't read yet.

I wouldn't mind seeing the blog continue under some of our contributors. I'd like to reduce my carbon footprint by 80% and wouldn't mind reading about the people on here who have accomplished it without sifting through years of journal entries (not that I am too upset about getting to do that.)  FIRE is only one part of what drew me here.  The efficiency and optimization were the other parts.

Chris Pascale

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #147 on: July 12, 2021, 09:45:43 AM »
Popularity comes and goes. The big influx came from MMM being on PBS, Tim Ferris, etc.

I wouldn't download the app, but I'm thinking of going to a dumb-phone.

dougules

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #148 on: July 15, 2021, 10:38:54 AM »
So in another thread they're discussing an article written about MMM in Outside magazine.   Honestly being in wide-spread publications unrelated to FIRE like this is probably more effective than just more blog posts on topics that have already been covered.  Also he can raise awareness while letting the magazine's staff do the actual work. 

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/saw-this-article-in-outside-magazine/

https://www.outsideonline.com/culture/active-families/embrace-your-inner-dirtbag/

BicycleB

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Re: A lack of NEW Converts?!
« Reply #149 on: July 15, 2021, 12:03:35 PM »
Can't get past the opening without joining the magazine's market-to-me-list. Beginning looks good though.