One Three More Years
Way back in ~2016, just as my spouse and I were buying a house together for the first time, I looked at expenses at that time, and projected a potential FIRE date of 2024. However, we spent a decent amount on home ownership - stuff, maintenance, upgrades. We also adopted our late, beloved Mastiff near the end of 2016, and spent lavishly on her comfort and joy (and health).
Expenses
Our trailing twelve month expenses rose from $41k in April of 2016 to a high of $74k in November 2019. Our home ownership low was $53k in March 2021 (pandemic levels of spending!), and is currently a lofty but sub-peak $63k. Housing and food are the biggest items, while my spouse would like to reduce eating out costs, and I fight my battles with spending on electronics. Travel will remain a significant but valued line item.
Investment Income
On the flip side, 4% of investments was $6.6k after putting money down for a house in April 2016 and peaked at $35.4k in February 2021, though we just might hit a new high once market adjustments are logged at the end of this quarter. Our "barebones" expenses peaked in 2018 at $37k, but are typically in the $32-35k range, so those, at least, would be covered. But of course we plan to expand our nest egg to cover "lifestyle" expenses as well - again the biggest of these being travel, eating out, transportation and electronics. We have plans to pare down to a single car household, and I can quite reasonably expect to spend very little on electronics going forward, as we have very capable, modern computers and smart phones (and an extraordinary $90 Garmin Venu watch.)
The Future
With our current projections, we expect to be able to fully cover expenses based on 4% of our invested liquid assets sometime in 2027. March actually looks good with the assumption we pay off our mortgage, reducing monthly expenses. With the full mortgage payment, expenses are higher, and that pushes us back to October but that P+I payment would end in 2050, so I just use that date/calculation as a sort of sanity check. To be clear, we do not plan on paying off (or even extra) towards our current 2.99% fixed rate mortgage. (But there is a chance we'll move before retirement, and depending on rates, we could approach things differently.)