2023 Chevy Bolt

[Just Joe]

ETA: This is also why I am hesitant to buy a brand new gas car today. If I plan on keeping a car 20-25 years, I'm not 100% confident gas will be as readily available then as it is today, and I don't want to be stuck with a stranded asset.

That is exactly why I asked. Same on long term ownership.

Our daily driver purchases need to transition to PHEV or BEV as they wear out I think. I refuse to buy $60K daily drivers (depreciating assets) so I'll buy a generation of $20K used PHEVs/BEVs. Bolts and Leafs.

I have several collector cars that I assume will be safe another generation or so. That way I can get my $$$$ out of them. Then I'll probably be buying gasoline at the hardware store like we have kerosene. ;) Full circle from the early 1900s.

[Villanelle]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking. 

[curious_george]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

[Villanelle]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

[curious_george]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

There are different charge levels that correspond with charging rates. Level 1 is the slowest and is like what you would plug into a 120 outlet at home. It could take 40 hours to charge or more. Level 2 is faster and can be installed at home and can charge a car in 7-8 hours.

Level 3 is commercial charging stations that are much faster. They are usually found in parking lots at commercial establishments.

https://chargehub.com/en/charging-stations-map.html

You may be surprised how many charging stations there are already in various places.

[Villanelle]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

There are different charge levels that correspond with charging rates. Level 1 is the slowest and is like what you would plug into a 120 outlet at home. It could take 40 hours to charge or more. Level 2 is faster and can be installed at home and can charge a car in 7-8 hours.

Level 3 is commercial charging stations that are much faster. They are usually found in parking lots at commercial establishments.

https://chargehub.com/en/charging-stations-map.html

You may be surprised how many charging stations there are already in various places.

I see charging stations around, but unless they can give a signifiant charge in 10-5 minutes, it doesn't seem like a solution for people who can't charge at home (or work).  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think most cars are getting a 60-80% charge in 15 minutes while they buy groceries or home improvement supplies.  And since I walked for those types of errands, having a charger there, even if it did exist, was working, and was available, wouldn't have really helped.  The majority of my driving was going to people's homes or small businesses that didn't even have parking, or only 1-2 spots, so would be very unlikely to have a charger. 

So I think until there are charging stations that work somewhere close to as fast as pumping gas, it's going to be hugely problematic for people who don't live in suburban sprawl.  80% in 10 minutes seems entirely plausible though, but only is there are many reliable options around.  That doesn't mean 3-4 stations, that may be broken or full, and located at a place I wouldn't otherwise go.  In practice, that would likely mean gas stations just convert to charging stations.  Pull up to the pump and instead of 5 minutes to fill your tank, you take 10 minutes to charge to 80% (or whatever % you want, just like you choose with pumping gas), put in your credit card to pay for the electricity you've just used and go on your way.  If that's the way of the future, then it seems no less viable (and no more inconvenient) than the current system. W are just swapping gas refills for electric charges at car-powering specific businesses. 

But that probably also means that gasoline will be around for quite a while.  2-3 pumps will convert to electric, then 50%, then 75%.   Then eventually only one in every few car-power stations will have gasoline. Kinda like the switch from  leaded to unleaded, as best I can recall. 

[jimmyshutter]

I was thinking of buying a Bolt euv and actually contacted a dealer yesterday. My 2009 civic has 200k miles on it and the body is beat up but still starts/runs fine except for a recent transmission "shudder" which someone else online was able to resolve with a transmission fluid change.

I put new brake pads on the front a couple weeks ago for $15.99. I can buy tires from Walmart for appr $150.00 (i mount and balan e myself). Oil change done by myself is appr $23.00. The only costs ive incurred outside of regular maintenance was a down pipe and muffler i put on myself for around $75.00 and front struts for probably $150.00 (can't remember exactly). Spark plugs costed a bit too but they're good for overr 100k.

The point im trying to make (for me) is these types of cars rarely need any parts/maintenance and when something does go wrong AND you're able to fix it yourself they're dirt cheap to fix and  keep running.

On top of that I'd still have to keep my Civic because I have a small snowmobile trailer and  I use the Civic to transport things (appliances, lawn mowers, snowblower, stuff off of Marketplace, etc). Even if I could put a trailer hitch on the Bolt it wouldn't be fun trying to find a charge station where I could pull up hauling a trailer.

I guess I'm just sharing this out loud to talk myself out of buying a new car. A new car would be nice but my wallet likes my old car better. That being said I do like the Bolt at the  current price minus gov rebate, I just don't if it's a vehicle for me and my current situation.

My 2007 civic has 146K, I never changed the transmission fluid, did you bring the card up to temp., drain and weigh whatever comes out the the drain hole underneath the car, and add new fluid of the same amount where the dipstick is? And if that's how you did it, how much were you able to get out?

I changed it at appr 150K miles. All I remember was the trans filter was a PIA to change. I just filled it enough to bring it back up to the dip stick level......I did buy another gallon of trans fluid the other day.....I'll just do a simple change and see if that helps although the trans doesn't seem to be acting up as much.....or maybe I'm just getting used to it, lol.

[billy]

I changed it at appr 150K miles. All I remember was the trans filter was a PIA to change. I just filled it enough to bring it back up to the dip stick level......I did buy another gallon of trans fluid the other day.....I'll just do a simple change and see if that helps although the trans doesn't seem to be acting up as much.....or maybe I'm just getting used to it, lol.
[/quote]

I heard doing ATF transfusion or dropping the pan on really old fluid can cause big problems. I thought you said initially it improved your civic?

[RWD]

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

The newest generation tech is basically there already. Hyundai Ioniq 5/6, Kia EV6, and siblings can do 10%-80% in 18 minutes. We rarely need more than 60%, give or take, so a substantial charge in under 15 minutes is quite doable. Similar results from some Teslas.

[curious_george]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

There are different charge levels that correspond with charging rates. Level 1 is the slowest and is like what you would plug into a 120 outlet at home. It could take 40 hours to charge or more. Level 2 is faster and can be installed at home and can charge a car in 7-8 hours.

Level 3 is commercial charging stations that are much faster. They are usually found in parking lots at commercial establishments.

https://chargehub.com/en/charging-stations-map.html

You may be surprised how many charging stations there are already in various places.

I see charging stations around, but unless they can give a signifiant charge in 10-5 minutes, it doesn't seem like a solution for people who can't charge at home (or work).  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think most cars are getting a 60-80% charge in 15 minutes while they buy groceries or home improvement supplies.  And since I walked for those types of errands, having a charger there, even if it did exist, was working, and was available, wouldn't have really helped.  The majority of my driving was going to people's homes or small businesses that didn't even have parking, or only 1-2 spots, so would be very unlikely to have a charger. 

So I think until there are charging stations that work somewhere close to as fast as pumping gas, it's going to be hugely problematic for people who don't live in suburban sprawl.  80% in 10 minutes seems entirely plausible though, but only is there are many reliable options around.  That doesn't mean 3-4 stations, that may be broken or full, and located at a place I wouldn't otherwise go.  In practice, that would likely mean gas stations just convert to charging stations.  Pull up to the pump and instead of 5 minutes to fill your tank, you take 10 minutes to charge to 80% (or whatever % you want, just like you choose with pumping gas), put in your credit card to pay for the electricity you've just used and go on your way.  If that's the way of the future, then it seems no less viable (and no more inconvenient) than the current system. W are just swapping gas refills for electric charges at car-powering specific businesses. 

But that probably also means that gasoline will be around for quite a while.  2-3 pumps will convert to electric, then 50%, then 75%.   Then eventually only one in every few car-power stations will have gasoline. Kinda like the switch from  leaded to unleaded, as best I can recall.

I see your point with the current state of charging stations and battery technology.

As others have noted though, even current battery tech and chargers can do a significant charge in 18 minutes.

The newest battery tech, which is commercially available, can do this in 10 minutes, as I noted above.

Maybe there is a lack of charging stations where you live, and I can see that as a good reason to not buy an EV for your situation currently.

However - this doesn't change my hesitation to buy a new gas car today. I would buy a used gas car, just not a new one.

As this transition to electric vehicles progresses, and as battery technology continues to improve with higher energy densities, faster charge rates, and lower cost, it's really unclear to me when gasoline availability will start to be threatened.

It seems like the transition to electric vehicles is inevitable at this point.

Once the battery tech is there (and with 80% charge rates in 10 minutes as noted above, it's already there) and the charging stations are there (there is some room for improvement here) and the cost is the same as a gas car, it seems like buying an EV would be a no brainer.

Assuming you can charge the car in 10 minutes and electric charging stations are everywhere, and the car costs the same as a gas car, why would someone buy a gas car?

An electric car is cheaper to fuel, cheaper to maintain, has fewer moving parts, accelerates faster and more smoothly, is dead silent and more pleasant to drive, has instant torque availability, and is safer because of larger crumple zones and lowered center of gravity because the batteries are always placed on the floor.

New technology often advances faster and takes over faster than people expect.

My point is not that electric vehicles are awesome and amazing and everyone should buy one today.

My point is that there is enough uncertainty around the timing of the transition that, if someone likes keeping cars for 20-25 years, it may not make sense to buy a brand new gas car today because there is some chance that it may become obsolete before its useful lifespan is up.

Maybe the gas stations will still be there. Maybe there is even a 80% odds they will still be there. I don't know. I'm not really the gambling type of person though, so I am going to hedge my bets by not buying a new gas car.

[mizzourah2006]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

There are different charge levels that correspond with charging rates. Level 1 is the slowest and is like what you would plug into a 120 outlet at home. It could take 40 hours to charge or more. Level 2 is faster and can be installed at home and can charge a car in 7-8 hours.

Level 3 is commercial charging stations that are much faster. They are usually found in parking lots at commercial establishments.

https://chargehub.com/en/charging-stations-map.html

You may be surprised how many charging stations there are already in various places.

I see charging stations around, but unless they can give a signifiant charge in 10-5 minutes, it doesn't seem like a solution for people who can't charge at home (or work).  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think most cars are getting a 60-80% charge in 15 minutes while they buy groceries or home improvement supplies.  And since I walked for those types of errands, having a charger there, even if it did exist, was working, and was available, wouldn't have really helped.  The majority of my driving was going to people's homes or small businesses that didn't even have parking, or only 1-2 spots, so would be very unlikely to have a charger. 

So I think until there are charging stations that work somewhere close to as fast as pumping gas, it's going to be hugely problematic for people who don't live in suburban sprawl.  80% in 10 minutes seems entirely plausible though, but only is there are many reliable options around.  That doesn't mean 3-4 stations, that may be broken or full, and located at a place I wouldn't otherwise go.  In practice, that would likely mean gas stations just convert to charging stations.  Pull up to the pump and instead of 5 minutes to fill your tank, you take 10 minutes to charge to 80% (or whatever % you want, just like you choose with pumping gas), put in your credit card to pay for the electricity you've just used and go on your way.  If that's the way of the future, then it seems no less viable (and no more inconvenient) than the current system. W are just swapping gas refills for electric charges at car-powering specific businesses. 

But that probably also means that gasoline will be around for quite a while.  2-3 pumps will convert to electric, then 50%, then 75%.   Then eventually only one in every few car-power stations will have gasoline. Kinda like the switch from  leaded to unleaded, as best I can recall.

The Tesla superchargers have the capability of charging from 20-80% in about 10-12 minutes at a peak of 250kWh. I'd say 150-175kWh is a more normal supercharger rate and that would take between 15-20 minutes. The problem is that supercharger charging isn't great for the longevity of the battery, especially if you rely on it as your primary charging method.

I will also say that if you rely on superchargers as your primary charging method it's also not a ton cheaper than gas, at least where I live. For me I can get a gallon of gas for $3.50 right now and a supercharger charges $0.36/kWh. If you assume 3.5 miles per kWh. that's roughly an equivalent to 35 miles per gallon. At 4 miles per kWh you are at 40 miles per gallon. You can get hybrid's that will easily match that. But when you are paying $0.10 per kWh, now you've almost quadrupled the range to the equivalent of 120-140 MPG.

[2sk22]

Millions of people live in apartments or have living arrangements other than a single family house. EV Charging at home is going to be difficult for such people into the medium future. This is going to be significant deterrent to a wholesale EV mandate so I think that ICE vehicles will continue to remain available for a long time.

[Paper Chaser]

Assuming you can charge the car in 10 minutes and electric charging stations are everywhere, and the car costs the same as a gas car, why would someone buy a gas car?

An electric car is cheaper to fuel, cheaper to maintain, has fewer moving parts, accelerates faster and more smoothly, is dead silent and more pleasant to drive, has instant torque availability, and is safer because of larger crumple zones and lowered center of gravity because the batteries are always placed on the floor.

I wouldn't say the bolded is anything certain. EV cost of ownership is highly variable and specific to a situation and location. Some states incentivize EVs while others add costs. Some places have crazy high electric rates while others are very low. Charging at home is always cheaper than public charging, but as Mizzourah pointed out DC fast charging is often pretty comparable to gas prices.

7 months ago, it cost more to charge an EV at home than it did to fuel an ICE in some parts of the US:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/electric-car-2023-costs-gas-vehicles/

It's also worth noting that as oil demand declines, demand increases for electricity. If you live in a location where individual solar and/or wind generation is financially viable that may not be a huge concern, but there are plenty of places where that isn't the case. I certainly wouldn't buy something with a 20 year life cycle assuming that electric rates and other taxes/fees wouldn't rise to meet the ever increasing demand. Governments will find a way to maintain tax revenue. And "Big Oil" is really just another branch of the "Big Energy" tree. They're going to get theirs.

There are always going to be for-profit companies that you have to pay if you want to move in a vehicle. Might be oil companies, electric utilities, ride share apps, or taxis. There is no free ride unless you have energy independence by making your own fuel/energy. You can only clean consumption up so much. Reducing consumption is what actually changes things.

[SpareChange]

The problem is that supercharger charging isn't great for the longevity of the battery, especially if you rely on it as your primary charging method.

Do we have any hard numbers describing this relationship? I'm an apt dweller and could very well only be charging this way. 

[mizzourah2006]

The problem is that supercharger charging isn't great for the longevity of the battery, especially if you rely on it as your primary charging method.

Do we have any hard numbers describing this relationship? I'm an apt dweller and could very well only be charging this way.

Actually it looks like a recent study found that this wasn't true.

https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/1586/tesla-supercharging-does-not-significantly-affect-battery-life-study-reveals

This was the common talking point from Tesla.

The peak charging rate of the Battery may decrease slightly after a large number of DC Fast Charging sessions, such as those at Superchargers. To ensure maximum driving range and Battery safety, the Battery charge rate is decreased when the Battery is too cold, when the Battery’s charge is nearly full, and when the Battery conditions change with usage and age. These changes in the condition of the Battery are driven by battery physics and may increase the total Supercharging duration by a few minutes over time.

[curious_george]

Assuming you can charge the car in 10 minutes and electric charging stations are everywhere, and the car costs the same as a gas car, why would someone buy a gas car?

An electric car is cheaper to fuel, cheaper to maintain, has fewer moving parts, accelerates faster and more smoothly, is dead silent and more pleasant to drive, has instant torque availability, and is safer because of larger crumple zones and lowered center of gravity because the batteries are always placed on the floor.

I wouldn't say the bolded is anything certain. EV cost of ownership is highly variable and specific to a situation and location. Some states incentivize EVs while others add costs. Some places have crazy high electric rates while others are very low. Charging at home is always cheaper than public charging, but as Mizzourah pointed out DC fast charging is often pretty comparable to gas prices.

7 months ago, it cost more to charge an EV at home than it did to fuel an ICE in some parts of the US:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/electric-car-2023-costs-gas-vehicles/

It's also worth noting that as oil demand declines, demand increases for electricity. If you live in a location where individual solar and/or wind generation is financially viable that may not be a huge concern, but there are plenty of places where that isn't the case. I certainly wouldn't buy something with a 20 year life cycle assuming that electric rates and other taxes/fees wouldn't rise to meet the ever increasing demand. Governments will find a way to maintain tax revenue. And "Big Oil" is really just another branch of the "Big Energy" tree. They're going to get theirs.

There are always going to be for-profit companies that you have to pay if you want to move in a vehicle. Might be oil companies, electric utilities, ride share apps, or taxis. There is no free ride unless you have energy independence by making your own fuel/energy. You can only clean consumption up so much. Reducing consumption is what actually changes things.

I wrote up a long post disputing the 44 cents /kwh claimed in the article, then looked up the electric prices for Massachusetts, and...my God.

We just need to shut that state down and have everyone move somewhere else, lol.

Thanks for the info - had no idea some New Englanders were paying that amount for electric.

[Villanelle]

It's not just the speed of the tech, which sounds like it's already there.  It's the accessibility. Yes, I see charging stations many places.  I'd guess my fairly liberal, high-income area probably has more than the US average.  But it still wouldn't be enough to convince me, if that were the only way I could charge.  I think until we have reliable charging access--something similar to gas stations now, not just a few stations at the front of every strip mall, which may or may not be working or occupied and tied up for hours, people are going to be resistant, and for good reason. 

If you lived in an apartment or townhouse with public-street parking, and didn't work at a place with charging, would you actually be willing to buy a fully-EV?  Most people's answer will be no, and IMO understandably so.  That's why I see gas stations just slowly transitioning to car-charging stations.  Perhaps we won't have as many of them as we have gas stations now, since many/most people can charge at home or work, but for the people who can't or those who are doing trips beyond one charge, I think that will be how the future looks.

We need charging speed (which it sounds like we pretty much have) and accessibility before we can do away with gas vehicles. 

[SpareChange]

The problem is that supercharger charging isn't great for the longevity of the battery, especially if you rely on it as your primary charging method.

Do we have any hard numbers describing this relationship? I'm an apt dweller and could very well only be charging this way.

Actually it looks like a recent study found that this wasn't true.

https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/1586/tesla-supercharging-does-not-significantly-affect-battery-life-study-reveals

This was the common talking point from Tesla.

The peak charging rate of the Battery may decrease slightly after a large number of DC Fast Charging sessions, such as those at Superchargers. To ensure maximum driving range and Battery safety, the Battery charge rate is decreased when the Battery is too cold, when the Battery’s charge is nearly full, and when the Battery conditions change with usage and age. These changes in the condition of the Battery are driven by battery physics and may increase the total Supercharging duration by a few minutes over time.

Awesome find. Thanks.

[ChpBstrd]

If you lived in an apartment or townhouse with public-street parking, and didn't work at a place with charging, would you actually be willing to buy a fully-EV?  Most people's answer will be no, and IMO understandably so.  That's why I see gas stations just slowly transitioning to car-charging stations.  Perhaps we won't have as many of them as we have gas stations now, since many/most people can charge at home or work, but for the people who can't or those who are doing trips beyond one charge, I think that will be how the future looks.

There is probably a hard physical limit which means a battery can never charge as quickly as liquid can be dumped into a tank. Additionally, electricity is non-toxic and non-flammable when the infrastructure is correctly installed. The properties of gasoline are why we don't keep large fuel tanks at home.

The architectural consequence is that the place where you charge your EV can be and needs to be a place where you want to or need to spend some time. Therefore the most logical charging locations might be stores, malls, homes, workplaces, restaurants, and entertainment venues. I suspect the days are numbered for old-fashioned gas stations with only a little junk-food shop and a filthy bathroom as amenities, because these are not places you'd want to spend 30-45 minutes charging your car.

I also think EVs will eventually clip into the charging apparatus when it parks, relieving the user of the obligation to move high voltage cords around and swipe credit cards (in the rain?). Your free million dollar idea of the day is a system to automatically connect a car when it parks, while transferring account information for billing purposes. When intentionally charging one's car is no longer a thing, we'll look back at gas stations the way we look back at using shoveling coal into boilers to keep one's house warm.

[Villanelle]

If you lived in an apartment or townhouse with public-street parking, and didn't work at a place with charging, would you actually be willing to buy a fully-EV?  Most people's answer will be no, and IMO understandably so.  That's why I see gas stations just slowly transitioning to car-charging stations.  Perhaps we won't have as many of them as we have gas stations now, since many/most people can charge at home or work, but for the people who can't or those who are doing trips beyond one charge, I think that will be how the future looks.

There is probably a hard physical limit which means a battery can never charge as quickly as liquid can be dumped into a tank. Additionally, electricity is non-toxic and non-flammable when the infrastructure is correctly installed. The properties of gasoline are why we don't keep large fuel tanks at home.

The architectural consequence is that the place where you charge your EV can be and needs to be a place where you want to or need to spend some time. Therefore the most logical charging locations might be stores, malls, homes, workplaces, restaurants, and entertainment venues. I suspect the days are numbered for old-fashioned gas stations with only a little junk-food shop and a filthy bathroom as amenities, because these are not places you'd want to spend 30-45 minutes charging your car.

I also think EVs will eventually clip into the charging apparatus when it parks, relieving the user of the obligation to move high voltage cords around and swipe credit cards (in the rain?). Your free million dollar idea of the day is a system to automatically connect a car when it parks, while transferring account information for billing purposes. When intentionally charging one's car is no longer a thing, we'll look back at gas stations the way we look back at using shoveling coal into boilers to keep one's house warm.

How does that work if you park on a public street or in open parking?  Or do you imagine nearly every parking space, everywhere, having these systems?

People above said you can get to 80% charge (I assumed based on the context that this meant from nearly zero or quite low) in 10-15 minutes.  That seems reasonable at  "gas" station. 

[GilesMM]

Millions of people live in apartments or have living arrangements other than a single family house. EV Charging at home is going to be difficult for such people into the medium future. This is going to be significant deterrent to a wholesale EV mandate so I think that ICE vehicles will continue to remain available for a long time.

Energy transitions take a long time.  Hydrocarbons became important 120 years ago (with the 1901 discovery at Spindletop), but the transition off coal has been slow.  China is currently permitting two coal-fired power stations PER WEEK.  Coal still provides 20% of U.S. power. Global coal consumption is at an all time high. So the transition from coal to oil or natural gas has not yet occurred despite 120 years of production.  To imagine a transition from hydrocarbons to something cleaner will likely take decades.  We can all zoom around in our electric cars with our home solar, but something needs to change about how power is produced here and globally.

[GuitarStv]

The problem is that supercharger charging isn't great for the longevity of the battery, especially if you rely on it as your primary charging method.

Do we have any hard numbers describing this relationship? I'm an apt dweller and could very well only be charging this way.

Actually it looks like a recent study found that this wasn't true.

https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/1586/tesla-supercharging-does-not-significantly-affect-battery-life-study-reveals

This was the common talking point from Tesla.

The peak charging rate of the Battery may decrease slightly after a large number of DC Fast Charging sessions, such as those at Superchargers. To ensure maximum driving range and Battery safety, the Battery charge rate is decreased when the Battery is too cold, when the Battery’s charge is nearly full, and when the Battery conditions change with usage and age. These changes in the condition of the Battery are driven by battery physics and may increase the total Supercharging duration by a few minutes over time.

Awesome find. Thanks.

Ummmmm . . . hang on.

The 'study' linked is this one - https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/impacts-of-fast-charging

And the way that they determined range was not to test the battery, it was to look at "the percentage of original range as shown on the cars’ dashboards".  And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

I'd really like to see a study where they tested actual available range.

[Just Joe]

There are different charge levels that correspond with charging rates. Level 1 is the slowest and is like what you would plug into a 120 outlet at home. It could take 40 hours to charge or more. Level 2 is faster and can be installed at home and can charge a car in 7-8 hours.

Level 3 is commercial charging stations that are much faster. They are usually found in parking lots at commercial establishments.

https://chargehub.com/en/charging-stations-map.html

You may be surprised how many charging stations there are already in various places.

https://www.plugshare.com

This map is brand agnostic, it will show more locations. Click on the map, then zoom in. And zoom in some more.

Row houses can have chargers at the curb. I've seen pictures of chargers in the UK that look a little like parking meters. I doubt these kinds of solutions will be implemented in the USA any time soon b/c we always seem to be slow to act as a nation. First the wealthy will be catered to, then the home owners, then the curb parkers.

[Just Joe]

I changed it at appr 150K miles. All I remember was the trans filter was a PIA to change. I just filled it enough to bring it back up to the dip stick level......I did buy another gallon of trans fluid the other day.....I'll just do a simple change and see if that helps although the trans doesn't seem to be acting up as much.....or maybe I'm just getting used to it, lol.

I heard doing ATF transfusion or dropping the pan on really old fluid can cause big problems. I thought you said initially it improved your civic?
[/quote]

Acura SUVs of a certain age (our's with a Honda in-house 6 speed transmission) has a shuddering/slipping problem in 3rd or 4th gears on hills when the fluid gets old. The solution for that is to change the fluid three times in a row so that all the fluid is new. Change it once and the fluid in the torque converter is still old. Change it three times with a drive in-between and the problem is solved. And mine has worked perfectly. Maybe your Civic would benefit from this procedure.

[mizzourah2006]

The problem is that supercharger charging isn't great for the longevity of the battery, especially if you rely on it as your primary charging method.

Do we have any hard numbers describing this relationship? I'm an apt dweller and could very well only be charging this way.

Actually it looks like a recent study found that this wasn't true.

https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/1586/tesla-supercharging-does-not-significantly-affect-battery-life-study-reveals

This was the common talking point from Tesla.

The peak charging rate of the Battery may decrease slightly after a large number of DC Fast Charging sessions, such as those at Superchargers. To ensure maximum driving range and Battery safety, the Battery charge rate is decreased when the Battery is too cold, when the Battery’s charge is nearly full, and when the Battery conditions change with usage and age. These changes in the condition of the Battery are driven by battery physics and may increase the total Supercharging duration by a few minutes over time.

Awesome find. Thanks.

Ummmmm . . . hang on.

The 'study' linked is this one - https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/impacts-of-fast-charging

And the way that they determined range was not to test the battery, it was to look at "the percentage of original range as shown on the cars’ dashboards".  And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

I'd really like to see a study where they tested actual available range.

My understanding is that this is adjusted based on the battery degradation. So if they estimated your range was 330 miles with 100% battery health and 100% charge, then if your stated range was 297 with 100% charge you would have had 10% battery degradation. The numbers Tesla provides for miles is based off of their EPA wh/mile. It doesn't change as a function of your driving, that's why I always use the battery % and not the stated miles. You can see your actual range based off of your last 30 miles in the consumption screen, assuming your remaining drive will look like that. Either way they are looking at both methods of charging the same way. It would have to be that the charging methods impacts how Tesla displays those #s. Given Tesla themselves recommends using superchargers only when necessary, I'm not sure why they would fudge the numbers to defend supercharger use.

[TomTX]

My concern is - new vehicle sales will be banned in some states, which will cause auto manufacturers to stop investing in ICE vehicles in general, further propelling ev sales, causing gasoline demand to drop, causing gas stations to start closing down.

Once gas stations start closing down I think there will be a feedback loop where less gasoline availability will further propel EV sales, which will further cause more gas stations to close.

If too many gas stations close ice vehicles may suddenly and rapidly depreciate in value as no one wants to be stuck driving a vehicle that is hard to fuel, and unlike electric cars gas can't be manufactured at home.

So - in short it's less about the regulations themselves being a problem. It's more that the uncertain environment the regulations create will cause companies to massively stop investing in ICE vehicle manufacturing and to stop building new gas stations, which will trigger a self reinforcing cycle of destruction for ICE vehicles.

I'm not sure of the timing of the switch over, but this uncertainty has caused me to not want to buy a new ICE car ever because I don't want to make that sort of investment into a dying technology.

Oh, I already made that analysis years ago. Eventually it may happen, and the time is getting sooner. On the flip side, maybe ICE cars registered in CA before 2035 will go up in value since no new ones are available.

[TomTX]

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

I believe this concern is overblown, at least in many areas. I checked some online apartment finders here in Austin - a majority of the complexes had onsite EV charging. Or I could L2 charge while I'm at the grocery store, or the movies, or at the office, or at the drug store, or at the mall, or at the library, etc. I could L3 charge (V3, 250kW Superchargers) next to Costco, a bunch of restaurants and a park.

Are there still places where charging will be a challenge? Absolutely! But it's quick and easy to install chargers - and we have many years of transition ahead of us. EV sales are still only something like 7% of new vehicle sales.

[TomTX]

It's also worth noting that as oil demand declines, demand increases for electricity.

Maybe in some areas, but I really doubt it will for someplace like Texas. Frac wells, refineries, etc use an enormous amount of electricity. We have something over 100,000 frac wells, and they require a lot of electricity for the pumps, about 10x as much as the old style "nodding donkey" pumps.

[TomTX]

And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

Have they? All I've heard about is their choosing a different EPA-approved test cycle than most other manufacturers, which gives higher estimated range than the cycle most manufacturers chose.

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fuel-economy-and-ev-range-testing

[RWD]

And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

Have they? All I've heard about is their choosing a different EPA-approved test cycle than most other manufacturers, which gives higher estimated range than the cycle most manufacturers chose.

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fuel-economy-and-ev-range-testing

They have
https://electrek.co/2023/08/03/teslas-range-being-exposed-already-leading-class-action-lawsuit/

[mizzourah2006]

And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

Have they? All I've heard about is their choosing a different EPA-approved test cycle than most other manufacturers, which gives higher estimated range than the cycle most manufacturers chose.

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fuel-economy-and-ev-range-testing

They have
https://electrek.co/2023/08/03/teslas-range-being-exposed-already-leading-class-action-lawsuit/

The article you linked says this.

As we reported last week, a lot of what was in the Reuters report were things that Tesla is allowed to do based on how the EPA calculates range.

The EPA range is what automakers are allowed to advertise.

While Tesla is known to take advantage of the EPA’s system to advertise the most optimistic version of the range of its vehicles, it appears to be within the bounds of the regulator.

[GuitarStv]

And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

Have they? All I've heard about is their choosing a different EPA-approved test cycle than most other manufacturers, which gives higher estimated range than the cycle most manufacturers chose.

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fuel-economy-and-ev-range-testing

They have
https://electrek.co/2023/08/03/teslas-range-being-exposed-already-leading-class-action-lawsuit/

The article you linked says this.

As we reported last week, a lot of what was in the Reuters report were things that Tesla is allowed to do based on how the EPA calculates range.

The EPA range is what automakers are allowed to advertise.

While Tesla is known to take advantage of the EPA’s system to advertise the most optimistic version of the range of its vehicles, it appears to be within the bounds of the regulator.

Tesla's approach has been different in thus matter than any other electric car manufacturer . . . probably because the range given for Tesla vehicles is always wrong in real world driving with the method they use.  We'll see how the class action goes I guess.

[RWD]

And Tesla has already been busted for fudging the data on this displayed data, so it seems like a very untrustworthy number to use for conclusions regarding range.

Have they? All I've heard about is their choosing a different EPA-approved test cycle than most other manufacturers, which gives higher estimated range than the cycle most manufacturers chose.

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fuel-economy-and-ev-range-testing

They have
https://electrek.co/2023/08/03/teslas-range-being-exposed-already-leading-class-action-lawsuit/

The article you linked says this.

As we reported last week, a lot of what was in the Reuters report were things that Tesla is allowed to do based on how the EPA calculates range.

The EPA range is what automakers are allowed to advertise.

While Tesla is known to take advantage of the EPA’s system to advertise the most optimistic version of the range of its vehicles, it appears to be within the bounds of the regulator.

Yes, "a lot of what was in the report" is EPA-related, but not everything: "It also went as far as claiming that Tesla had developed a special algorithm that showed drivers a more optimistic range at first and then turned more precise once the vehicle’s state of charge dipped below 50%."

See also:
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-batteries-range/

[Paper Chaser]

It's also worth noting that as oil demand declines, demand increases for electricity.

Maybe in some areas, but I really doubt it will for someplace like Texas. Frac wells, refineries, etc use an enormous amount of electricity. We have something over 100,000 frac wells, and they require a lot of electricity for the pumps, about 10x as much as the old style "nodding donkey" pumps.

The US EIA 2050 forecast might be very interesting as it relates to the current discussion:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/

I found these snips to be interesting:

"In the transportation sector, light-duty vehicle energy demand declines through 2045 as more electric vehicles are deployed and stricter Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards largely offset the continued growth in travel demand. The energy demand then increases as rising travel overcomes increasing efficiency. Across all cases, light-duty vehicle energy demand decreases by 3% to 28% in 2050 relative to 2022."

"Despite no significant change in domestic petroleum and other liquids consumption through 2040 across most AEO2023 cases, we expect U.S. production to remain historically high as exports of finished products grow in response to growing international demand. Despite the shift toward renewable sources and batteries in electricity generation, domestic natural gas consumption remains relatively stable—ending recent growth in most cases. Natural gas production, however, in some cases continues to grow in response to international demand for liquefied natural gas, supported by associated natural gas produced along with crude oil. Given the combination of relatively little growth in domestic consumption and continued growth in production, we project that the United States will remain a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050 in all AEO2023 cases."


"U.S. energy consumption increases in many end-use sectors across all AEO2023 cases. Total energy consumption, including electricity use and electricity-related losses, increases by as much as 15% from 2022 to 2050 across the AEO2023 Reference case and side cases (Figure 7). The largest increases, in percentage terms, are in the industrial sector where energy consumption increases as much as 32% and in the transportation sector where energy consumption increases as much as 8%. Energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors are the least sensitive to changes in assumptions across cases."

[lemonlyman]

https://insideevs.com/news/699392/next-gen-chevrolet-bolt-ev-is-on-for-2025-debut-gm-ceo-confirms/

Well, the Bolt wasn’t dead for very long.

[BuffaloStache]

https://insideevs.com/news/699392/next-gen-chevrolet-bolt-ev-is-on-for-2025-debut-gm-ceo-confirms/

Well, the Bolt wasn’t dead for very long.

It's promising, but I'll believe it when I see it. I think 2026 or later is more likely... GM definitely wants to see some increased profits from the more expensive Trailblazer and Equinox EVs before it goes back to producing a true practical/everyday smaller sized EV.

[Just Joe]

A couple of years seems like a long time for a factory to mothball an assembly line. I'm making alot of assumptions of course.

[neo von retorch]

https://insideevs.com/news/699392/next-gen-chevrolet-bolt-ev-is-on-for-2025-debut-gm-ceo-confirms/

Well, the Bolt wasn’t dead for very long.

Yeah - they mentioned this back in July.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2023/07/25/gm-to-introduce-a-next-gen-chevy-bolt/70461386007/

But that Inside EVs article speaks to how much trouble GM is having ramping up production of their EVs/batteries... currently it's hard to be optimistic. Every Chevy EV that has come out on their Ultium platform has been very expensive...

[yuka]

What ICE vehicles go away, how will those who live in areas without decent public transport, but who also have no dedicated parking, manage their vehicles?

I briefly considered an EV or PHEV when I bought a car in 2021.  We live in the 'burbs, I rarely drive more than 17 miles at a time, and we have another car that is ICE and could be used for longer trips.  Perfect EV candidate, right?  Except we move frequently and live in all sots of different types of housing, and at the time (and still) had no idea where we'd live next.  So I couldn't reliably count on being able to charge.  Our previous location was a old (like, pre-revolutionary war) row style townhouse, with public street parking.  Short of running an extension cord out my front window, across the public sidewalk, and to my car parked on the street, there would have been no way to charge my car.  I'd have had to rely on finding places to run errands that had chargers, I guess.  Which would have meant driving further to run errands (or in some cases, driving instead of walking) and just hoping the chargers were available and working, and then waiting it out while I got a full charge.

Not everyone has a dedicated garage for charging.  I think that's a major barrier to doing away entirely with any kind of gas-engine.  I can see setting the minimum at a PHEV, but full EV is going to be tough for exactly the kinds of housing we need to address the housing shortage--dense, without attached and dedicated parking.

Battery technology continues to rapidly improve, as well as the number of charging stations and speed of charging.

20 years is a long time. We have gas stations everywhere, and they cost far more to setup and operate than some level 3 charging stations. Is it really that hard to believe we may have as many levels 3 charging stations in 20 years as we have gas stations today?

Or that our existing gas stations may not simply all add level 3 charge stations?

Modern batteries can charge to 80% in 10 minutes. They continue improving every year. Is it really hard to believe that we may have a battery that charges to 80% in 5 minutes in 10 years, for example?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/22/catl-unveils-ev-battery-enabling-a-400-km-driving-range-on-a-10-minute-charge/#:~:text=CATL%20announced%20a%20new%20fast,range%20on%20a%20full%20charge.

Not everyone will be charging at home.

I'm not familiar with a level 3 charging station. But yes, it would need to get to a point where it gives a substantial charge in 10-15 minutes, or it doesn't address this problem.

There are different charge levels that correspond with charging rates. Level 1 is the slowest and is like what you would plug into a 120 outlet at home. It could take 40 hours to charge or more. Level 2 is faster and can be installed at home and can charge a car in 7-8 hours.

Level 3 is commercial charging stations that are much faster. They are usually found in parking lots at commercial establishments.

https://chargehub.com/en/charging-stations-map.html

You may be surprised how many charging stations there are already in various places.

I see charging stations around, but unless they can give a signifiant charge in 10-5 minutes, it doesn't seem like a solution for people who can't charge at home (or work).  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think most cars are getting a 60-80% charge in 15 minutes while they buy groceries or home improvement supplies.  And since I walked for those types of errands, having a charger there, even if it did exist, was working, and was available, wouldn't have really helped.  The majority of my driving was going to people's homes or small businesses that didn't even have parking, or only 1-2 spots, so would be very unlikely to have a charger. 

So I think until there are charging stations that work somewhere close to as fast as pumping gas, it's going to be hugely problematic for people who don't live in suburban sprawl.  80% in 10 minutes seems entirely plausible though, but only is there are many reliable options around.  That doesn't mean 3-4 stations, that may be broken or full, and located at a place I wouldn't otherwise go.  In practice, that would likely mean gas stations just convert to charging stations.  Pull up to the pump and instead of 5 minutes to fill your tank, you take 10 minutes to charge to 80% (or whatever % you want, just like you choose with pumping gas), put in your credit card to pay for the electricity you've just used and go on your way.  If that's the way of the future, then it seems no less viable (and no more inconvenient) than the current system. W are just swapping gas refills for electric charges at car-powering specific businesses. 

But that probably also means that gasoline will be around for quite a while.  2-3 pumps will convert to electric, then 50%, then 75%.   Then eventually only one in every few car-power stations will have gasoline. Kinda like the switch from  leaded to unleaded, as best I can recall.

I see your point with the current state of charging stations and battery technology.

As others have noted though, even current battery tech and chargers can do a significant charge in 18 minutes.

The newest battery tech, which is commercially available, can do this in 10 minutes, as I noted above.

Maybe there is a lack of charging stations where you live, and I can see that as a good reason to not buy an EV for your situation currently.

However - this doesn't change my hesitation to buy a new gas car today. I would buy a used gas car, just not a new one.

As this transition to electric vehicles progresses, and as battery technology continues to improve with higher energy densities, faster charge rates, and lower cost, it's really unclear to me when gasoline availability will start to be threatened.

It seems like the transition to electric vehicles is inevitable at this point.

Once the battery tech is there (and with 80% charge rates in 10 minutes as noted above, it's already there) and the charging stations are there (there is some room for improvement here) and the cost is the same as a gas car, it seems like buying an EV would be a no brainer.

Assuming you can charge the car in 10 minutes and electric charging stations are everywhere, and the car costs the same as a gas car, why would someone buy a gas car?

An electric car is cheaper to fuel, cheaper to maintain, has fewer moving parts, accelerates faster and more smoothly, is dead silent and more pleasant to drive, has instant torque availability, and is safer because of larger crumple zones and lowered center of gravity because the batteries are always placed on the floor.

New technology often advances faster and takes over faster than people expect.

My point is not that electric vehicles are awesome and amazing and everyone should buy one today.

My point is that there is enough uncertainty around the timing of the transition that, if someone likes keeping cars for 20-25 years, it may not make sense to buy a brand new gas car today because there is some chance that it may become obsolete before its useful lifespan is up.

Maybe the gas stations will still be there. Maybe there is even a 80% odds they will still be there. I don't know. I'm not really the gambling type of person though, so I am going to hedge my bets by not buying a new gas car.

FWIW, I think your gas pessimism is a bubble you're in, which may actually cause you to not have easy gas access, but only inside a proper city, which I would say the US has 3-5 of.

I'm in sort of the opposite situation. I really want to splurge on a plug-in, but the numbers are just too aggressively against me to justify it (plus moving every couple of years makes charging infrastructure inconvenient.) It's the classic MMM conundrum of EVs: the marginal cost of fuel at 4kMile/year is way too low to justify having a vehicle new enough to be PHEV with the taxes and depreciation that that entails.

[BuffaloStache]

A couple of years seems like a long time for a factory to mothball an assembly line. I'm making alot of assumptions of course.

The key piece of info that is missing from a lot of those articles is that they aren't going to mothball the Bolt assembly line- they are going to change it to make Equinox and Blazer EVs in the interim. Hence my skepticism...

[neo von retorch]

Some elaboration here, basically just parsing what Mary Barra said...

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/12/next-gen-chevy-bolt-ev-will-be-based-on-current-bolt-euv/

Barra went on to say that “by leveraging the best attributes of today’s Bolt EUV, as well as Ultium, our latest software, and NACS [North American Charging Standard], we will deliver an even better driving, charging and ownership experience with the vehicle we know customers love.”

Barra added that the move will save GM billions in capital and engineering expenses, substantially reducing unit costs, as well as bringing the product to market “at least two years faster.” Barra said that the new Chevy Bolt EV will also leverage LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery cell technology, making it GM’s first use of LFP batteries in the company’s Ultium platform in North America. To note, GM’s current Ultium battery cells utilize a nickel-cobalt-manganese-aluminum chemistry.

All of that is to say, it might not be substantially different from the previous Bolt EUV, but I would not expect a new Bolt EV (i.e. the slightly smaller hatchback form factor.) But if it has all the newer tech (charge port, LFP Ultium) it could still be compelling.

Plus... see ruminations on where it will be built.

[grantmeaname]

LFP is a downgrade, right? They're hoping to start selling $40k Bolts that cost less to make than the old $30k Bolts?

[RWD]

LFP is a downgrade, right? They're hoping to start selling $40k Bolts that cost less to make than the old $30k Bolts?

LFP is superior in safety (thermal runaway) and they don't use nickel or cobalt. They can also be charged to 100% without the same risk of degradation of capacity. In theory the price for those batteries should be cheaper. Downsides are reduced capacity for the same weight/volume.

So I wouldn't say it is a strict downgrade, there are pros and cons to both. But it almost certainly is a cost reduction which will be annoying if the savings are not passed on to the consumers. Alternatively they could afford to make everything else about the EV better for the same price point if the battery cost was less of a factor. I tried to sell my parents on a Bolt but they thought it seemed too cheaply built.

[neo von retorch]

LFP is a downgrade, right? They're hoping to start selling $40k Bolts that cost less to make than the old $30k Bolts?

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/lithium-ion-solar-batteries-compared

This is about solar, but it shows LFP as superior to NMC in just about everything except maybe density, and currently, up front cost. But solar is stationary, so weight / density isn't as critical.

https://history-computer.com/nickel-cobalt-vs-lithium-iron-batteries-compared-pros-cons-and-differences/

Nickel-cobalt NMC and NCA batteries offer long-range and fast charging, both attractive features for EV buyers. Iron-phosphate batteries are generally shorter range with less energy density. However, they’re also safer and longer lasting.

With Tesla at the helm, they are also serving as the research basis for new M3P batteries. Researchers make the M3P batteries nearly as safely and cheaply as LFP, but with a 400+ mile range.

Which battery is better depends on the owner’s location and intended use.

Overall I don't think it's as clear-cut as "a downgrade" - seems like they make sense for smaller vehicles if you're not trying to maximize range. But it also sounds like issues with cold weather make LFP a poor choice depending on where you live.

https://www.engineering.com/story/why-ev-manufacturers-are-switching-from-nmc-to-lfp-batteries

Tesla was one of the first EV makers to switch to LFP batteries.

(In California!) :) At any rate, I wouldn't hold onto a black and white "nickel-manganese-cobalt" > "lithium iron phosphate" opinion. But I would definitely keep an eye on range, charging rates, and temperature considerations if you're approaching a purchase.

[grantmeaname]

Interesting. All I had heard about LFP was that it was a less dense, lower capacity, lower cost option used by Tesla in China - didn't realize it was more nuanced than that.

[Just Joe]

A couple of years seems like a long time for a factory to mothball an assembly line. I'm making alot of assumptions of course.

The key piece of info that is missing from a lot of those articles is that they aren't going to mothball the Bolt assembly line- they are going to change it to make Equinox and Blazer EVs in the interim. Hence my skepticism...

Ahhh, that makes sense. I couldn't imagine how the accountants would allow them to mothball something that normally makes money.

[NorCal]

A couple of years seems like a long time for a factory to mothball an assembly line. I'm making alot of assumptions of course.

The key piece of info that is missing from a lot of those articles is that they aren't going to mothball the Bolt assembly line- they are going to change it to make Equinox and Blazer EVs in the interim. Hence my skepticism...

Ahhh, that makes sense. I couldn't imagine how the accountants would allow them to mothball something that normally makes money.

Paraphrasing some prior comments GM has made.

GM says it is electrifying its fleet, but they don't expect their overall factory needs to change much.  So they are repurposing existing factories instead of building new ones.  Which pretty much means they need to do some shutdowns and take certain models out of production while they re-tool for the next generation of cars.  I expect this will happen to other models in the future as well.

[AdrianC]

Some elaboration here, basically just parsing what Mary Barra said...

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/12/next-gen-chevy-bolt-ev-will-be-based-on-current-bolt-euv/

Barra went on to say that “by leveraging the best attributes of today’s Bolt EUV, as well as Ultium, our latest software, and NACS [North American Charging Standard], we will deliver an even better driving, charging and ownership experience with the vehicle we know customers love.”

Barra added that the move will save GM billions in capital and engineering expenses, substantially reducing unit costs, as well as bringing the product to market “at least two years faster.” Barra said that the new Chevy Bolt EV will also leverage LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery cell technology, making it GM’s first use of LFP batteries in the company’s Ultium platform in North America. To note, GM’s current Ultium battery cells utilize a nickel-cobalt-manganese-aluminum chemistry.

All of that is to say, it might not be substantially different from the previous Bolt EUV, but I would not expect a new Bolt EV (i.e. the slightly smaller hatchback form factor.) But if it has all the newer tech (charge port, LFP Ultium) it could still be compelling.

She did say GM would be buying the LFP cells from a third party, presumably CATL. That could mean no tax credit, which would be a real shame. The Mach e LFP versions are said to not qualify for a credit in 2024. In 2023 they get half the credit.

52k miles on our 2021 Bolt now. One set of tires from Costco, no other maintenance that we had to pay for. It has had two new traction batteries and been in for two software updates, all paid for by GM. Out of commission for about a month, all in. GM certainly lost a boatload on this particular car.

[BuffaloStache]

...
She did say GM would be buying the LFP cells from a third party, presumably CATL. That could mean no tax credit, which would be a real shame. The Mach e LFP versions are said to not qualify for a credit in 2024. In 2023 they get half the credit.

52k miles on our 2021 Bolt now. One set of tires from Costco, no other maintenance that we had to pay for. It has had two new traction batteries and been in for two software updates, all paid for by GM. Out of commission for about a month, all in. GM certainly lost a boatload on this particular car.

Interesting point about the LFP supplier- part of what makes the Bolt/EUV great is that it *does* qualify for all of the major EV rebates while still being a smaller, more practical car.

Also, when did you replace your tires? I just hit 12k miles on my EUV, so I am wondering how much longer I'll have...

[AdrianC]

Interesting point about the LFP supplier- part of what makes the Bolt/EUV great is that it *does* qualify for all of the major EV rebates while still being a smaller, more practical car.

Also, when did you replace your tires? I just hit 12k miles on my EUV, so I am wondering how much longer I'll have...

43k miles. They would have lasted longer but I neglected to rotate them after 10k miles, then got a screw in one of the good rear tires and it wasn't repairable. Just got a new set.

CATL are working with Ford on a US plant.
"GM reportedly slammed Ford over its plan to use Chinese battery technology in EVs"
https://news.yahoo.com/gm-reportedly-slammed-ford-over-154546433.html

So maybe GM will not use CATL? All I know is whatever they say now is subject to change.

Meanwhile, GM are pushing their latest "small" car, the new Trax, a gas-powered, 3-cylinder, made in S. Korea SUV.
https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/11/chevrolet-trax-sales-numbers-figures-results-third-quarter-2023-q3/