Author Topic: 2021 FIRE Cohort  (Read 353348 times)

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 317
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #750 on: January 13, 2021, 05:37:20 PM »
Please check the chart over and offer any corrections or updates you have.  The roster is updated for everybody through post #795.   

So far we have 74 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 5 have gone OLY into the 2020 Cohort. 

Average age of 2021ers is 44.97 (based on those 57 members who provided an age at FIRE date).  2020 average age was 48.32.  2019 average age was 47.38.

NameAge (at FIRE)FIRE Date
AldiEarly 50s1/23/2020 OLY
CrazyIT563/13/2020 OLY
Mmm_Donuts3/20/2020 OLY
Marcher Lady4912/15/2020 OLY
Zinnie 38 10/22/2020 OLY
     
Matz_70501/1/2021
BikeFanatic551/4/2021Confirmed
Sciurus1/8/2021Confirmed
ScreamingHeadGuy411/22/2021Confirmed
12321351/23/2021
moneypitfeeder421/29/2021
Sultan58January
goat_music_generator272/2/2021
fireflye502/1/2021
texxan12/17/2021
Buffaloski Boris562/28/2021
dreams_and_discoveries39February
dividendman38February
Dreamer40403/3/2021
exit2019 3/12/2021
TheContinentalOP55 3/19/2021
HumanAfterAll44March
Jack0Life ('s wife)March
Trede514/2/2021
Tipster350604/30/2021
bluebelle4/30/2021
icebox92364/30/2021
Peter Parker4/30/2021
logjammin394/30/2021
LightTripper45April
JoJoApril
force majeure45April
Geographer305/3/2021
CoffeeR5/31/2021
gary341130April/May
WildJager35May
80Westy50May
Omglmg39May
wrightstuff55May
amberfocus36May
phildonnia506/1/2021
ItalianGirl52 6/1/2021
Chaplin476/4/2021
Sisto526/7/2021
YoungGranny316/30/2021
mld33June
sailingTowardsFI43June
crazy jane55June
MoStash537/1/2021
Ladychips557/1/2021
Nazar7/1/2021
CarolinaGirl50July
highlandterrier47July
NorskyJuly
Arbitrage438/1/2021
asauer43August
Well Respected Man569/10/2021
ospreyjp569/27/2021
frugalecon9/30/2021
GBRS36September
Farfetchd33 September
the_fixer4910/1/2021
damoOctober
Boyband37October
4tify54October
Money Badger5312/1/2021
Accountant0074812/23/2021
Bownyboy2912/25/2021
Ulysses Everett McGill5512/31/2021
dblaace60 12/31/2021
effigy9843December
WadimanDecember
mindfulrun43spring
lightmyfireJune-Sept
Mrs. Healthywealth42Summer
monarda61TBD
aethonan1332TBD
American GenXTBD
lemonlymanTBD
dswTBD
MoneyTreeTBD
SheWhoWalksAtLunchTBD
« Last Edit: January 22, 2021, 01:15:32 PM by ScreamingHeadGuy »

crazy jane

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 284
  • Location: Northbrook, Illinois
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #751 on: January 13, 2021, 05:49:51 PM »
Add me to the list please. I attended a retirement meeting today and gave our superintendent my internet to retire at the end of the school year in June. I will be 55. I was going to work until 2023 but will this year just did me in. I've never worked harder and felt less appreciated. I've been financially independent for a few years thanks to this blog. I was just hanging around for the insurance and really enjoyed my job as well. I found out I can get teacher's retirement insurance so am sorted. Looking forward to being part of this thread.

MoStash

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 42
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #752 on: January 13, 2021, 06:19:37 PM »
Congratulations Crazy Jane! You must be so relieved to know you don't have to go back in the fall.

I'm not OMY, but I've pushed back my date a few months. Maybe July 1? I am taking off every Tuesday and Thursday now. It's irking my boss, but I have a lot of PTO and we keep canceling our planned trips due to covid. I've told everyone "I don't care to work two days in a row any more". Some are amused, some are not.

crazy jane

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 284
  • Location: Northbrook, Illinois
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #753 on: January 13, 2021, 07:45:20 PM »
Thanks MoStash. This forum helped kick me into high gear and I upped my savings rate to around 75 percent for the last 7-8 years. I was already a saver and lived frugally. I kept telling myself future me was going to be very happy with my decisions. Future me is now present me and I am indeed very happy.

Chaplin

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1893
  • Location: Le Canada
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #754 on: January 13, 2021, 09:47:41 PM »
Please check the chart over and offer any corrections or updates you have.  The roster is updated for everybody through post #755.   

I have given my notice; my last day is June 4. Yes, long notice, because reasons.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 11:26:26 PM by Chaplin »

Norsky

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #755 on: January 13, 2021, 10:45:38 PM »
Add me to the 2021 cohort. I have been telling new neighbors (about 50% already retired) that I intend to retire July 2021 when COBRA bridges mr to Medicare eligibility. However, after Dems won Pres and control of Senate I am really working till we are vaccinated so we can travel. No reason to sit home not being paid😏. Also have 7 weeks vacation time to use when feel like saying FU.

CarolinaGirl

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 74
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #756 on: January 14, 2021, 06:26:23 AM »
I’m currently on the fence about retiring in July.  I recently splurged in a very big non-MMM way on a dream I’ve had my whole life.  Couldn’t be more happy though! 

I lost 5 family members in 11 months during 2018-2019.  Two were in their 60’s and 1 was in her 20’s.  It just made me think about how pissed off I’d be if I’d been frugal my whole life and never got to really make any of my big dreams come true by the time I died.  My Mom’s constant regret is that she didn’t let my Dad buy a new(er) vehicle.   They had plenty of money to cover life in retirement and both had good jobs, but she was always worried about the future.  The brain tumor took him in under 15 months.  Same with my biological father.  YOLO!
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 06:28:52 AM by CarolinaGirl »

the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #757 on: January 14, 2021, 07:32:28 AM »
I thought I'd point out the article ERN posted today, about One More Year. I extremely recommend the SWR series this article is a part of, and this one is now particularly relevant to this thread. It's a good one - there's the typical ERN analysis and tables, but there's also a nice little MMM-esque part at the end about not getting too caught up in overpreparing, to balance the rest out.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2021/01/13/one-more-year-swr-series-part-42

I'll also extract a certain few quotes. I'm a bit of a broken record about this, but the central point of the series is that the 4% rule isn't safe, and this particular article very bluntly reiterates that:

"at a CAPE>20 [the 4% rule with a 30-year horizon and 25% value final target] fails 18.8% of the time"
...
"Most of the failures of the 4% Rule are clustered during the times of very expensive equity valuations [at the start of retirement]."
...
"with today’s CAPE north of 30 and an implied historical failure probability of 18.8%, it seems like a no-brainer to reduce the withdrawal rate to less than 4%."

Put another way, if you're targeting a particular dollar amount for your stash, hitting that amount during a bad correction/crash is more trustworthy than hitting it during a dizzying runup.

The last few months before pulling the trigger are of course the most painful possible time to consider this, but I think it's very much a better late than never situation, and I'm concerned that the danger is particularly present right around now. I'm not demanding everyone to get down to 3%, I just want to make sure everyone has a decently accurate picture of risk across the SWR landscape, so that they can make the right decision for their circumstances/preferences. If you really cannot stand more than a couple more months, go for it even at 4%, but try to treat it as a sabbatical - the risk of failure is too high to dismiss as a possible but unlikely catastrophe.

Finally (and this is extremely broken-record of me), if you're using CAPE-based variable withdrawals (https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/30/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-18-flexibility-cape-based-rules/) this is no longer a concern; your "when can I retire" dollar target will move appropriately with the market.
I would highly recommend taking a look at this tool created by one of the forum members

Rich, Broke or Dead

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

It is eye opening and helped me realize my fears of running out of money were irrational and I have a much larger risk of dying than going broke.

For example @ 80 years old with a 4% withdrawal rate I have a
50% chance I will be DEAD
2.5% chance of being BROKE

And that is without factoring in Social security if I add social security it shows 0% chance that I go broke.

If you want to talk statistics and risk make sure you are looking at all factors.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 07:44:20 AM by the_fixer »

FarFetchd

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 23
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #758 on: January 14, 2021, 06:17:49 PM »
@FarFetchd let me start with an apology...because your post really pushed my buttons.

I know everyone worries about having enough money...but I worry about having enough time.  How many people do we know who have a terminal cancer diagnosis? Or who had a stroke and now has no quality of life? Or who had a car accident that cost them their life? Or any other tragic or debilitating occurrence that made someone realize they had plenty of fucking money...but not nearly enough time???

Of course I want people to make good decisions based on facts, but if a pandemic year taught me anything, it's that I don't really need that much money...what I really want is time.  I hope no one sees your post and thinks "I better work one more year".

That's pretty much the sentiment of the article's last couple of paragraphs. It's an important counterweight to keep in mind. I wouldn't want people to get into sad, unnecessary OMY spirals, and in fact I myself am probably going to quit traditional work with a bit less than I'm 100% comfortable with. I just see the MMM-verse as tending to be more cavalier than I think is responsible.

Some of that is just fundamental philosophical differences on accepting risk, but I think also people are getting a false sense of security from looking at a risk landscape that isn't real, i.e. taking the Trinity study as relevant to young-ish FIRE people. I don't want to write a whole essay here, so I'll just point out the fact that always really jumped out at me: Trinity defines ending a 30-year period with $1 as a success.

FIRE is a huge life change that needs to be very carefully considered. As an econ PhD who worked in finance and followed through on retiring early, ERN is pretty much the best equipped person possible to do that analysis. He concludes that the 4% rule has issues, despite trying all sorts of angles to "make it work". Planning for 4% withdrawals is still a viable way to go about the FIRE thing, but you have to either consciously decide that you're ok with the drawdowns/failure probabilities he computes, find a legitimate flaw in his reasoning, or a special circumstance that makes it not applicable to your situation. The series is so overwhelmingly thorough about trying to make 4% work that I really see going with 4% without fully digesting it as a shortfall of due diligence.

I would highly recommend taking a look at this tool created by one of the forum members

Rich, Broke or Dead

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

...

Yeah, that is indeed a great visualization; another good counterweight to getting too fixated on the financial side. The dead vs broke probabilities aren't the whole story, though. One interesting feature of SWR math is that a path that's ultimately going to be safe can be pretty terrifying while it's happening. The bal<start area is a spectrum of those scenarios, from absolutely nothing to worry about, to panicking over your net worth leaving the "nonzero commas club" (when the chart has any "broke" area nearby). Since nobody would let themselves approach going literally broke without taking some sort of measures, in reality the broke area smears together with some portion of the bal<start area.

exit2019

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #759 on: January 14, 2021, 09:36:15 PM »
I would highly recommend taking a look at this tool created by one of the forum members
Rich, Broke or Dead

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

It is eye opening and helped me realize my fears of running out of money were irrational and I have a much larger risk of dying than going broke.

The engaging-data site is full of really nice visualizations and I like this one, however you're mixing different things. The correct way to view this is "I have a %x chance of running out of money in my lifetime." The dead part doesn't actually matter, because dead you doesn't run out of money.

Also, this visualization doesn't address longevity risk which comes mostly from three things - your current health and habits, your genetics (how long did your family live?) and the (risk of) technological improvements in general to geriatric medicine. 

As with everything else, you don't live an average of timelines, you just live yours. So if your family tends to live a long time, you need to assume you'll live a long time, even if that visualization indicates that the average person dies before 85.

30-40 years is a long time and there's plenty of time for very substantial improvements that might result in buying you another ten or 20 years of good health.  I don't know about you, but while the temptation is there to day "yeah, well, if future me finds themselves out of money, they can always suicide, they'll have lived a long life" (or whatever) but the reality is future you will not appreciate "odds were that you'd be dead." Cold comfort.

Your mileage may vary and risk tolerances are, obviously, an individual thing.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 09:39:42 PM by exit2019 »

exit2019

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #760 on: January 14, 2021, 10:27:50 PM »
Finally (and this is extremely broken-record of me), if you're using CAPE-based variable withdrawals (https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/30/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-18-flexibility-cape-based-rules/) this is no longer a concern; your "when can I retire" dollar target will move appropriately with the market.

This was one of ERN's better posts in recent times, thanks for posting it. I've read his whole series but hadn't seen the new posting.

Correct on the primary value of a CAPE10-based withdrawal: if you commit to using a CAPE-derived WR (e.g., a=1.0%, b=0.5, CAPE10=34.50, resulting_WR=2.45%) then it's easy to make your number [ spend/(1.0% + 0.5/34.50) ] dynamic and use it to guide your timing; the real value there is de-correlates retirement start dates from market peaks.

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #761 on: January 15, 2021, 09:43:37 AM »
I thought I'd point out the article ERN posted today, about One More Year. I extremely recommend the SWR series this article is a part of, and this one is now particularly relevant to this thread. It's a good one - there's the typical ERN analysis and tables, but there's also a nice little MMM-esque part at the end about not getting too caught up in overpreparing, to balance the rest out.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2021/01/13/one-more-year-swr-series-part-42

I'll also extract a certain few quotes. I'm a bit of a broken record about this, but the central point of the series is that the 4% rule isn't safe, and this particular article very bluntly reiterates that:

"at a CAPE>20 [the 4% rule with a 30-year horizon and 25% value final target] fails 18.8% of the time"
...
"Most of the failures of the 4% Rule are clustered during the times of very expensive equity valuations [at the start of retirement]."
...
"with today’s CAPE north of 30 and an implied historical failure probability of 18.8%, it seems like a no-brainer to reduce the withdrawal rate to less than 4%."

Put another way, if you're targeting a particular dollar amount for your stash, hitting that amount during a bad correction/crash is more trustworthy than hitting it during a dizzying runup.

The last few months before pulling the trigger are of course the most painful possible time to consider this, but I think it's very much a better late than never situation, and I'm concerned that the danger is particularly present right around now. I'm not demanding everyone to get down to 3%, I just want to make sure everyone has a decently accurate picture of risk across the SWR landscape, so that they can make the right decision for their circumstances/preferences. If you really cannot stand more than a couple more months, go for it even at 4%, but try to treat it as a sabbatical - the risk of failure is too high to dismiss as a possible but unlikely catastrophe.

Finally (and this is extremely broken-record of me), if you're using CAPE-based variable withdrawals (https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/30/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-18-flexibility-cape-based-rules/) this is no longer a concern; your "when can I retire" dollar target will move appropriately with the market.
I would highly recommend taking a look at this tool created by one of the forum members

Rich, Broke or Dead

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

It is eye opening and helped me realize my fears of running out of money were irrational and I have a much larger risk of dying than going broke.

For example @ 80 years old with a 4% withdrawal rate I have a
50% chance I will be DEAD
2.5% chance of being BROKE

And that is without factoring in Social security if I add social security it shows 0% chance that I go broke.

If you want to talk statistics and risk make sure you are looking at all factors.

Indeed that's a good one that I played around with some in the past.  It could help wake up some people that aren't looking at risks other than financial.  No one should assume they will live to 90+ years old just because they had parents or grandparents that did.

phildonnia

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 365
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #762 on: January 15, 2021, 10:33:39 AM »
With four and a half months to go, I'm going to get a little practice living with no wage income.  I turned up my Roth 401(k) to the absolute maximum, and according to my first paycheck of the year, I'm now taking home... $42 per month. 

In 2022, we can start selling stuff in our taxable investments, and come in under the 0% capital gains bracket.  But until then, the trick is going to be living off my bank account (about $50k) and DW's part-time take-home pay until the end of 2021. 

I know, it's totally doable, and consistent with our past spending.  But a little weird all the same.

Dreamer40

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 360
  • Location: Portland, OR
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #763 on: January 15, 2021, 03:09:00 PM »
With four and a half months to go, I'm going to get a little practice living with no wage income.  I turned up my Roth 401(k) to the absolute maximum, and according to my first paycheck of the year, I'm now taking home... $42 per month. 

I'm doing the same until my end date in March. It feels very strange! But makes sense.

I submitted my resignation a little over a week ago and now word is out around my office. Makes it feel very real. I have short moments of panic because we fear change, but I'm mostly relieved and excited. I have a lot of jealous coworkers who also wish they could quit. So the conversations are kind of awkward. It's easier to let them believe I'm just taking a break before starting another unspecified career in a new city.

The local gardening store down the street announced that they were hiring and my gut reaction was to consider applying because it's a neat place. One of the job requirements is to like bluegrass music or be able to fake it convincingly. But I haven't even wrapped up my current job! It's a weird impulse to always be thinking about work. I'm not opposed to working interesting jobs in the future, but I need to learn how to chill out.

Ladychips

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1448
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #764 on: January 15, 2021, 04:18:59 PM »
The local gardening store down the street announced that they were hiring and my gut reaction was to consider applying because it's a neat place. One of the job requirements is to like bluegrass music or be able to fake it convincingly.

I have no interest in working after I retire...but that job sounds lovely!

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4561
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #765 on: January 15, 2021, 04:29:52 PM »
The local gardening store down the street announced that they were hiring and my gut reaction was to consider applying because it's a neat place. One of the job requirements is to like bluegrass music or be able to fake it convincingly.

I have no interest in working after I retire...but that job sounds lovely!

I don't even like gardening and now I want that job :)

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 317
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #766 on: January 15, 2021, 07:27:10 PM »
@phildonnia and @Dreamer40 - I tried to zero out my paycheck, too, but couldn't enter a fractional percent so I'm stuck getting $40-some per paycheck.  :-(

Glad to have you aboard @crazy jane and @Norsky - you're now on "the list". 

PhrugalPhan

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 321
  • Age: 61
  • Location: No. VA
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #767 on: January 15, 2021, 07:39:21 PM »
@phildonnia and @Dreamer40 - I tried to zero out my paycheck, too, but couldn't enter a fractional percent so I'm stuck getting $40-some per paycheck.  :-(
As a two year out person that plans on doing the same, I am surprised they won't allow you to put in a higher percentage and just put in to your retirement account what's available - giving you a $0 paycheck.  Hopefully I won't have the same problem you are having.

MoneyTree

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 304
  • Location: SF Bay Area
    • Journal - The Best Time to Plant a MoneyTree
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #768 on: January 18, 2021, 10:18:33 AM »
@phildonnia and @Dreamer40 - I tried to zero out my paycheck, too, but couldn't enter a fractional percent so I'm stuck getting $40-some per paycheck.  :-(
As a two year out person that plans on doing the same, I am surprised they won't allow you to put in a higher percentage and just put in to your retirement account what's available - giving you a $0 paycheck.  Hopefully I won't have the same problem you are having.

Alas, sometimes the HR/Payroll system has limits to ensure the employee isn't doing something out of their minds like contributing more than 90% of their income to their 401K. No one in their right mind would intentionally want to do that, right?

I'm doing the same, and I got a chuckle out of my most recent payroll direct deposit for a grand total of $242

the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #769 on: January 18, 2021, 11:17:18 AM »
@ScreamingHeadGuy

You can change me to be TBD on date and age.

We reached FI last year and everything is on track financially but my plan was to travel and I do not feel comfortable at this point traveling with the Covid situation.

I would switch to the 2021 group but the reality is that my work situation is crazy so I could just decide to part way at any moment.

So I could go anytime between now and sometime in 2021 all depends on how the covid situation evolves and what happens at my work.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 11:19:02 AM by the_fixer »

phildonnia

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 365
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #770 on: January 19, 2021, 11:30:07 AM »


Alas, sometimes the HR/Payroll system has limits to ensure the employee isn't doing something out of their minds like contributing more than 90% of their income to their 401K. No one in their right mind would intentionally want to do that, right?


Once in the past, I did get a courtesy e-mail from HR telling me that I had requested a 75% deduction, when they thought I probably meant 7.5%.

goat_music_generator

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Location: Maryland
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #771 on: January 19, 2021, 03:36:16 PM »
Just gave notice. My last day will be 2/2/2021.

Arbitrage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1405
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #772 on: January 19, 2021, 03:56:07 PM »
Just gave notice. My last day will be 2/2/2021.

Congrats! 

I actually just gave "notice" as well, but my notice was 6 months out without a definitive end date, as I'm trying to to request accommodations to be fully remote and downshift from full-time to part-time.  Nevertheless, it was still a pretty big conversation to have, telling my boss that I'm moving away and won't work full-time.  If they don't accommodate, I'll just be leaving.

goat_music_generator

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Location: Maryland
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #773 on: January 19, 2021, 04:43:48 PM »
Just gave notice. My last day will be 2/2/2021.

Congrats! 

I actually just gave "notice" as well, but my notice was 6 months out without a definitive end date, as I'm trying to to request accommodations to be fully remote and downshift from full-time to part-time.  Nevertheless, it was still a pretty big conversation to have, telling my boss that I'm moving away and won't work full-time.  If they don't accommodate, I'll just be leaving.

Congrats to you too, on getting all that out in the open! Hope it works out. So great to be able to say, "I'm doing this, so if that doesn't work for you, see ya!"

ItalianGirl

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 17
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #774 on: January 19, 2021, 05:54:09 PM »
Italian Girl here....
My updated data is that I'll be 52 this year. My status will be 6/1/2021 Still owner of business but not working it? Classify that as you wish!
Hubs will be fully retired 4/1
So excited!!

Ladychips

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1448
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #775 on: January 19, 2021, 07:42:10 PM »
Oh how I love seeing my class graduate!!  Congratulations and thank you for leading the way!!!

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 317
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #776 on: January 20, 2021, 05:52:13 AM »
Just gave notice. My last day will be 2/2/2021.

Way to go(at)!

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #777 on: January 20, 2021, 09:48:37 AM »
Anybody thinking of angling for a severance package?

(I know practices around severance vary by country and industry.  FWIW, I'm speaking from a USA / Software perspective, in which I believe severance to be uncommon apart from  major layoff events.)
(I'm also *not* talking about the approach of doing minimal work for months or years until you goad your employer into laying you off.  Personally, I find that distasteful.)

I'm thinking of working through the end of February to secure a last round of stock.
I thought I'd then tell my manager of a general sense of dissatisfaction, and suggest I'd be a candidate for future layoff/RIF if there's anything upcoming.
If that doesn't work, I figured I'd offer to stay on longer than a short notice period, in exchange for negotiating severance.  I think I might be willing to stay on as much as ~6 additional months, into September.

If I'm able to get to negotiations, I thought I'd ask for:  accelerated vesting of further stock, payout for years served (involuntary layoffs have previously received 2wks pay / 1 year served), and healthcare coverage through the end of the year.

Anyone thinking similar?
Have any suggestions for making it work?

I'm aware of the FS book about engineering your layoff.  Reviews I've seen say it's not terribly worth the price.

JoJo

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1851
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #778 on: January 20, 2021, 02:31:18 PM »
@shuffler

Sharing my unsuccessful layoff story.

My company did a voluntary layoff on the guise of "early retirement" late last year.  It was only offered to age 55+.  I called HR to inquire but was told if they offered it to some people below age 55, it would be unfair to others.

A large portion of those eligible ended up taking it so the chances they extend the offer or need to do additional layoffs is probably low. 

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #779 on: January 20, 2021, 03:29:13 PM »
Sharing my unsuccessful layoff story.
Bummer that their offer isn't being extended to you.
Any thoughts to try to arrange/negotiate one for yourself anyway, independent of their broader offer to the older employees?

I'm not giving a large chance of success to my own efforts, but I figure it's worth a try as part of the discussion around leaving.

Sciurus

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 25
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #780 on: January 20, 2021, 04:57:43 PM »
I guess this is me now.  I just gave notice to my team this week that my last day will be January 8th.  2020 had so many unknowns that I could never really pick out a date until the very end here.  We blew past our target numbers in 2020 and I was just grinding it out for fear of the unknown.

I am looking forward to spending even more time with my young children, now without the ever lurking specter of work projects hanging ever present in my mind.

Hasn't fully sunk in yet, but no regrets :)

I am stopping by to confirm that my last day was in fact January 8th.  Retired at 33 years old.  Still keeping busy watching my 3 children all under 4 years old. 

The last few weeks of work were rough.  I had too many projects and too many tasks that I needed to pass off/train/write up guides for others to follow in my footsteps.  But that is all in the rear view now.

The biggest change so far is that I can feel 20-25% of my brain just not dedicated to thinking about work, planning around work, preparing for the next day etc.  It is wonderful to feel that extra mental capacity freeing up :)


dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1900
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #781 on: January 20, 2021, 05:07:01 PM »
I guess this is me now.  I just gave notice to my team this week that my last day will be January 8th.  2020 had so many unknowns that I could never really pick out a date until the very end here.  We blew past our target numbers in 2020 and I was just grinding it out for fear of the unknown.

I am looking forward to spending even more time with my young children, now without the ever lurking specter of work projects hanging ever present in my mind.

Hasn't fully sunk in yet, but no regrets :)

I am stopping by to confirm that my last day was in fact January 8th.  Retired at 33 years old.  Still keeping busy watching my 3 children all under 4 years old. 

The last few weeks of work were rough.  I had too many projects and too many tasks that I needed to pass off/train/write up guides for others to follow in my footsteps.  But that is all in the rear view now.

The biggest change so far is that I can feel 20-25% of my brain just not dedicated to thinking about work, planning around work, preparing for the next day etc.  It is wonderful to feel that extra mental capacity freeing up :)

Congrats!

I'll be joining you soon.

exit2019

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #782 on: January 20, 2021, 06:20:30 PM »
Anybody thinking of angling for a severance package?

I've done this several times. It isn't that different from what happens when you resign - you have a compelling event (employee who is exiting).  Doing something with this event is the trick. 

The real problem you will run into is that people like to think in periods of years.

Depending on your level and criticality, you could probably go, right now, and get a 1Y retention package by making it really clear you are going to leave. Strategically, "I have another option I'm thinking of pursuing" is better than "I'm retiring" even if "I don't need the money" might seem like a better argument (it's not). That's easy.  Given that, for some amount of effort, your management chain can arrange package if they're going to do anything.

However, it's a lot harder to do something like a "severance" package or a < 1Y package.  The reason for this is that for anything special or out of the norm, the verbiage matters a lot, your boss is either themselves able to green light the package himself (e.g., an EVP) or may need to actually get sign-off by an SVP, EVP or some chain. There is annoyance friction at each layer.  The right nomenclature matters (retention vs severance) but either way, none of those people are really going to want to put in work for "only {3|6} months."

As an aside, asking for a cash equivalent to what would _otherwise be_ stock vesting acceleration is actually a superior framing device.It's a pain in the neck to modify vesting schedules, etc., on an individual basis. The only reason this is possible for layoffs is that it's a mass action and the effort is delegated and amortized.  But using it as a framing device is probably OK, just make sure you are clear about that because otherwise you risk being classified as some crazy.

I'm actually going through this right now.

Btw, I agree with you that the Financial Samurai "Engineering Your Layoff" book is probably trash. I have a lot of experience and have spent a ton of time dealing with layoffs, EVPs, CEOs, SVPs, and so on.  I think most of what he writes about how business culture works is bafflingly naive if not straight up fan fiction.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 06:28:48 PM by exit2019 »

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 317
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #783 on: January 20, 2021, 07:19:00 PM »
Anybody thinking of angling for a severance package?

(I know practices around severance vary by country and industry.  FWIW, I'm speaking from a USA / Software perspective, in which I believe severance to be uncommon apart from  major layoff events.)
(I'm also *not* talking about the approach of doing minimal work for months or years until you goad your employer into laying you off.  Personally, I find that distasteful.)

I'm thinking of working through the end of February to secure a last round of stock.
I thought I'd then tell my manager of a general sense of dissatisfaction, and suggest I'd be a candidate for future layoff/RIF if there's anything upcoming.
If that doesn't work, I figured I'd offer to stay on longer than a short notice period, in exchange for negotiating severance.  I think I might be willing to stay on as much as ~6 additional months, into September.

If I'm able to get to negotiations, I thought I'd ask for:  accelerated vesting of further stock, payout for years served (involuntary layoffs have previously received 2wks pay / 1 year served), and healthcare coverage through the end of the year.

Anyone thinking similar?
Have any suggestions for making it work?

I'm aware of the FS book about engineering your layoff.  Reviews I've seen say it's not terribly worth the price.

I'd offer you to check out my recent postings in the "Epic FU Money" thread.  Basically I just flipped-out when responding to a snide email from my supervisor and said, essentially, "If you don't like it then give me a package to leave."  I mean - if I don't ask for it they're definitely not going to give it to me. 

goat_music_generator

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Location: Maryland
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #784 on: January 20, 2021, 07:41:41 PM »
I guess this is me now.  I just gave notice to my team this week that my last day will be January 8th.  2020 had so many unknowns that I could never really pick out a date until the very end here.  We blew past our target numbers in 2020 and I was just grinding it out for fear of the unknown.

I am looking forward to spending even more time with my young children, now without the ever lurking specter of work projects hanging ever present in my mind.

Hasn't fully sunk in yet, but no regrets :)

I am stopping by to confirm that my last day was in fact January 8th.  Retired at 33 years old.  Still keeping busy watching my 3 children all under 4 years old. 

The last few weeks of work were rough.  I had too many projects and too many tasks that I needed to pass off/train/write up guides for others to follow in my footsteps.  But that is all in the rear view now.

The biggest change so far is that I can feel 20-25% of my brain just not dedicated to thinking about work, planning around work, preparing for the next day etc.  It is wonderful to feel that extra mental capacity freeing up :)

Congrats!!

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #785 on: January 20, 2021, 07:42:15 PM »
I'd offer you to check out my recent postings in the "Epic FU Money" thread.  Basically I just flipped-out when responding to a snide email from my supervisor and said, essentially, "If you don't like it then give me a package to leave."  I mean - if I don't ask for it they're definitely not going to give it to me.
Yes, I have been following that thread and your posts in it.
Your situation sounds more ... adversarial than mine.  It almost sounds like there's an "or else" to what you're saying to your supervisor.

I don't second-guess that that's the right approach for you.  Sounds like you've been butting heads there for a while.

For me though, I'm hoping I can pull it off with a bit less animosity.

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #786 on: January 20, 2021, 08:00:08 PM »
Depending on your level and criticality, you could probably go, right now, and get a 1Y retention package by making it really clear you are going to leave. Strategically, "I have another option I'm thinking of pursuing" is better than "I'm retiring" even if "I don't need the money" might seem like a better argument (it's not). That's easy.  Given that, for some amount of effort, your management chain can arrange package if they're going to do anything.

However, it's a lot harder to do something like a "severance" package or a < 1Y package.  The reason for this is that for anything special or out of the norm, the verbiage matters a lot, your boss is either themselves able to green light the package himself (e.g., an EVP) or may need to actually get sign-off by an SVP, EVP or some chain. There is annoyance friction at each layer.
This rings true to me.  Thanks for sharing!
I'm first level manager of ~10 people, doing product development for one of the major software companies.  I'm top of the career level system for that position, unless I move up the chain (for which I've had offers, but never wanted to do).  ~20 years service.  I don't think I'm irreplaceable, but it would take several months time to find and then integrate a replacement.  There aren't too many people within my manager's org who could step up.

But ugh ... its disheartening to think in 1y quanta.  I'd really rather not be here for another full year.
I optimistically signed up for a Kilimanjaro trek in October, and I'd really like to be done by then.  ;^)

As an aside, asking for a cash equivalent to what would _otherwise be_ stock vesting acceleration is actually a superior framing device.It's a pain in the neck to modify vesting schedules, etc., on an individual basis.
Good tip.  This makes sense as well.

exit2019

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #787 on: January 20, 2021, 08:02:56 PM »
Your situation sounds more ... adversarial than mine.  It almost sounds like there's an "or else" to what you're saying to your supervisor.

Burning bridges - especially when you think you are done forever - just makes it hard to help other people later. The connections and reputation you build over the course of your career may cease to have direct value to you (but you never know), but they are something that can be invaluable to someone you may find yourself mentoring later - a friend's kid, your own, someone deserving, etc.  Two companies ago, we hired as an intern the child of a former, retired co-worker based mostly on our remembering him as a smart guy with a good, thoughtful head on his shoulders.

I have a crazy network built over two decades that I plan to keep vaguely alive so as to hold in reserve for these purposes. Charity needs a connection? Some one deserving needs an intro?  Hell yes.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 08:05:13 PM by exit2019 »

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #788 on: January 20, 2021, 08:06:04 PM »
Also, I should have said:

"If you don't like it then give me a package to leave."

I'm actually going through this right now.

Good luck to both of you!  I hope things turn out in your favor.

exit2019

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #789 on: January 20, 2021, 08:07:44 PM »
But ugh ... its disheartening to think in 1y quanta.  I'd really rather not be here for another full year.
I optimistically signed up for a Kilimanjaro trek in October, and I'd really like to be done by then.  ;^)

This one is the easiest part of it. "I have signed up for a big trip in October, I'm going to need a bunch of three weekends in the 2 months leading up to it and then a few weeks off."

Seriously. All it really amounts to is you've got a nice story to tell.

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 317
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #790 on: January 22, 2021, 01:13:53 PM »
Sorry to line- jump, but I’m out.  https://i.imgur.com/goCp7si.gif

A little earlier than planned, so I didn’t get to max my 401(k) for the year.  Still I’ll take it.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2021, 01:19:02 PM by ScreamingHeadGuy »

goat_music_generator

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Location: Maryland
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #791 on: January 22, 2021, 01:24:04 PM »
Sorry to line- jump, but I’m out.  https://i.imgur.com/goCp7si.gif

A little earlier than planned, so I didn’t get to max my 401(k) for the year.  Still I’ll take it.

Nice! Congratulations to our fearless thread leader!

12321

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 19
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #792 on: January 22, 2021, 01:36:26 PM »
Sorry to line- jump, but I’m out.  https://i.imgur.com/goCp7si.gif

A little earlier than planned, so I didn’t get to max my 401(k) for the year.  Still I’ll take it.

You just had to beat me, didn't you?

Congrats! See you soon!

Aethonan

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 57
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #793 on: January 22, 2021, 01:46:43 PM »
Sorry to line- jump, but I’m out.  https://i.imgur.com/goCp7si.gif

A little earlier than planned, so I didn’t get to max my 401(k) for the year.  Still I’ll take it.

Congratulations!!  Looking forward to hearing the details! 

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7916
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #794 on: January 22, 2021, 02:26:01 PM »
Congrats @ScreamingHeadGuy, how did it play out?

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 317
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #795 on: January 22, 2021, 02:53:20 PM »
Congrats @ScreamingHeadGuy, how did it play out?
I may be contractually obligated to not discuss whether or not I have agreed to a separation package, so I’m sorry to leave you hanging. 

Dreamer

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #796 on: January 22, 2021, 03:19:32 PM »
Hello everyone.  I'm not currently on the 2021 FIRE Cohort list. However, I really do not like my job and want to pull the trigger.  I even have a draft resignation letter written but am afraid I won't have the nerve to submit it (planned date is in April).  Unlike all the recommendations in this forum, I do not have a a well balanced portfolio at the moment, and I think that is what is causing my worry.  I have a basket of mostly tech stocks, which I plan to gradually sell in favor of ETFs.  However, these same tech stocks are the reason I'm currently even contemplating FIRE right now (65% overall returns for 2020).  Psychologically, I think I want to hold on longer in case these amazing gains continue.  This risk isn't something I'd feel comfortable with after FIRE.

I guess I'm looking for advice and reassurance!  I'm quite certain most of you will just tell me to sell the tech stocks, buy some safer ETFs and hand in my resignation.  Why is this so hard for me?

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #797 on: January 22, 2021, 03:31:04 PM »
I may be contractually obligated to not discuss whether or not I have agreed to a separation package, so I’m sorry to leave you hanging.

dblaace

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 331
  • Location: Texas
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #798 on: January 22, 2021, 06:05:48 PM »
Congrats ScreamingHeadGuy!

Peter Parker

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 249
Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #799 on: January 22, 2021, 06:29:35 PM »
Slight adjustment on my exit date...No longer April 30.  Instead May 7.  It is getting real, people!