Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 108872 times)

Faraday

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #200 on: October 24, 2016, 10:20:29 PM »
Hey all! I'm back after a few months hiatus and I've got some news that could be interesting to some in this thread. My posting from last November, 2015:

There have been layoffs at my place of employment. Here's how it would play out for me:
If I were laid off tomorrow:
Goal:Immediately refi the house.
Result: I could leisurely find that next job. It would not have to pay as much as current job.

In another 2-2.5 years:
Goal: House paid off.
Result: I could be FIRE but be on the poorer end of things. I would need a side gig and it would need to be cash flow positive.

In another 5 years:
Goal: House long since paid off. Solar PV and Solar hot water installed and working. Own and drive an EV.
Result: I could be FIRE and be very comfortable. Side gig would not have to make money.

A wave of layoffs came right after that posting and another wave at the end of April 2016. When I posted in November 2016, I started my search for my Next Great Thing and was successful at finding it. Turns out I timed it extremely well and the job change worked like a CHAMP. I love the work, I've got a super-cool boss and pretty good co-workers. I'm learning a lot and having fun and still increasing the 'stache, so all's good.

The goals stated are still in place, still viable. I've been reading other threads and it looks like I'm like a lot of folks here who want solar panels and an EV to make their FIRE life far more efficient.

I actually DID NOT have to refi the house. Turns out I found out about "recasting" a loan. It's a great option if you are paying down the principal ahead of time. I can recast once in the life of the loan and have retained that as a safety valve should it be needed. My mortgage would be cut in half or less if I had to recast.

Calculated FIRE date is July 2018 but we estimate it will take me to 2020 to pay off the house, so I'm still sticking with the 2020 FIRE cohort. I'm guessing we'll have the house done by July 2020 or so.

Side Note: I love interviewing, so I'm all about changing jobs. I'm still networking even though I'm at the Next Great Thing and have no (current) plans to leave.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 10:25:44 PM by Faraday »

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #201 on: November 01, 2016, 09:39:37 AM »
Sort of a mini-milestone, our countdown now sits @ 42 months to go, which is 3.5 years!  Yeah, maybe not THAT big of a deal but something ... anyway, slow steady progress continues.  Energy holdings took an end-of-month hit which depressed the progress on an otherwise positive month.  It will be interesting to see what effect the election cycle result will have on the markets.  Certainly will give the markets a reason to break free from the current trading range (up or down after that, nobody knows).  Our savings rate for 2016 is right around 67% of net income, which means after charitable giving our all-in expenses are 22% of net income :-)  Lately we've been having fun planting / maintaining our urban garden and enjoying a break from the TX summer heat with some family.

Apr 2016:   57.7% to FI *
May 2016:  58.5% to FI
Jun 2016:   61.1% to FI
Jul 2016:    60.6% to FI
Aug 2016:  60.7% to FI
Sep 2016:  61.2% to FI
Oct 2016:   61.6% to FI

* FI defined as 3% SWR and mortgage-free

6-Saturdays

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #202 on: November 03, 2016, 12:42:52 PM »
With a modest return on investment and our current savings rate DW and I plan to be FI(+) by Valentineís Day 2020. RE should follow shortly as of March 2nd 2020. I will be 44, DW is a bit younger. We are probably over saving, but ďforeverĒ is a long time. Once we both stop working getting back into our careers would be difficult so when we jump itís for keeps.
The current plan is to move to a LCOL country for a few years to let the $tash grow (projecting a less than 3% withdraw rate initially). We are currently looking at Mexico. Plan to rent for the first year or two to make sure we like the fit. After that we may buy a place. The only downside is that a house purchase in Mexico is all cash up-front (i.e. no loans) so we need to save up enough for the purchase on top of are $tash.
Just checked the countdown app on my phone and we are at 1198 days and 856 weekdays to FI(+)!!!

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #203 on: November 11, 2016, 11:45:02 AM »
Sort of a mini-milestone, our countdown now sits @ 42 months to go, which is 3.5 years!  Yeah, maybe not THAT big of a deal but something ... anyway, slow steady progress continues.  Energy holdings took an end-of-month hit which depressed the progress on an otherwise positive month.  It will be interesting to see what effect the election cycle result will have on the markets.  Certainly will give the markets a reason to break free from the current trading range (up or down after that, nobody knows).  Our savings rate for 2016 is right around 67% of net income, which means after charitable giving our all-in expenses are 22% of net income :-)  Lately we've been having fun planting / maintaining our urban garden and enjoying a break from the TX summer heat with some family.

Apr 2016:   57.7% to FI *
May 2016:  58.5% to FI
Jun 2016:   61.1% to FI
Jul 2016:    60.6% to FI
Aug 2016:  60.7% to FI
Sep 2016:  61.2% to FI
Oct 2016:   61.6% to FI

* FI defined as 3% SWR and mortgage-free

I have to admit, I am doing some soul-searching regarding the "conservatism" within our definition of FI above.  It was developed in mid-2015, with the following conservative bases:

1) Annual expenses assumed at $10k above current high-side (given future health care uncertainty, god-parent possible responsibility, flexibility, etc.)
2) Mortgage Free --> underlying assumption is that we'd outright own our LCOL property, above & beyond the invested nut amount
3) SWR of 3% instead of 3.5% (I do not feel comfortable with 4%)
4) 2Q-2020 would put us at age 41; at age 65 we project drawing a pension (non-CPI adjusted) that would (in today dollars) cover the high-side monthly expenses.  I have also excluded any future SS or inheritance (slight to modest) impacts.

So I want to revisit this heading into EOY, as it has now been our first full year of tracking this stuff.  I also want to investigate our true variable-SWR road map over the years.  There are side-gigs that we have great skill and interest in as well, that will likely be part of our ER years.  I wanted to share the soul-searching here as accountability to keep investigating it, and to fully understand the pros/cons of what could project to be an extra 12-18 months of possible OMY syndrome we are currently on track for.  We still have the possible sale of our HCOL home as a possible 2017 goal.

Thanks for reading.

FIREby2021

powersuitrecall

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #204 on: November 14, 2016, 08:26:28 AM »
I have to admit, I am doing some soul-searching regarding the "conservatism" within our definition of FI above.  It was developed in mid-2015, with the following conservative bases:

1) Annual expenses assumed at $10k above current high-side (given future health care uncertainty, god-parent possible responsibility, flexibility, etc.)
2) Mortgage Free --> underlying assumption is that we'd outright own our LCOL property, above & beyond the invested nut amount
3) SWR of 3% instead of 3.5% (I do not feel comfortable with 4%)
4) 2Q-2020 would put us at age 41; at age 65 we project drawing a pension (non-CPI adjusted) that would (in today dollars) cover the high-side monthly expenses.  I have also excluded any future SS or inheritance (slight to modest) impacts.

So I want to revisit this heading into EOY, as it has now been our first full year of tracking this stuff.  I also want to investigate our true variable-SWR road map over the years.  There are side-gigs that we have great skill and interest in as well, that will likely be part of our ER years.  I wanted to share the soul-searching here as accountability to keep investigating it, and to fully understand the pros/cons of what could project to be an extra 12-18 months of possible OMY syndrome we are currently on track for.  We still have the possible sale of our HCOL home as a possible 2017 goal.

Thanks for reading.

FIREby2021

Thanks for sharing FIREby2021.  We do something similar.  We assume:
- stash requirement sustains 4% after-tax withdrawal rate
- COL will be $10K above current (excluding mortgage payments and daycare costs)
- we do not include income tested gov't grants and credits (currently about $10K per year on our planned income)
- we do not include CPP (Canada's Social Security)
- we will own and not move from our MCOL home
- no inheritance (will likely be modest)
- no income from side gigs (or they are income neutral)

If we decided to ignore these assumptions, we could probably FIRE next year (or even now).  It's entirely possible that we are now working just to end up with "too much money".  But there are pretty compelling reasons for sticking it out: more security, the possibility of global travel, and general peace of mind.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #205 on: December 01, 2016, 09:41:21 AM »
As stated last month, we will be re-evaluating our conservative assumptions with the current plan after EOY.  With that said, by all measures this was a positive month.  Using the original target, our countdown is now at 41 months to-go (end of April 2020). Gains this month were driven by energy holdings (make oil great again??, haha), and my (modest) anticipated EOY bonus hitting the account a couple weeks earlier than expected.  I expect very little progress for December, aside from our normal savings.  IMO, the recent weakness in the Nasdaq needs to sort itself out in order for markets overall to continue making upside moves.

The big financial accomplishment this month was setting up an i401k for my wife in our Vanguard account.  I can't believe we hadn't done this in past years, but we plan to fully fund it ($18k) this month for 2016.  Always learning. Next year we will plan better and also add the employer contributions on top of that amount.  I plan on adding some color to our overall strategy / allocations / revisit assumptions with the next update @ EOY.  I hope everyone is enjoying the start of the holiday season!

Apr 2016:   57.7% to FI *
May 2016:  58.5% to FI
Jun 2016:   61.1% to FI
Jul 2016:    60.6% to FI
Aug 2016:  60.7% to FI
Sep 2016:  61.2% to FI
Oct 2016:   61.6% to FI
Nov 2016:  64.0% to FI

* FI defined as 3% SWR and mortgage-free

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #206 on: December 19, 2016, 01:40:47 PM »
I'm having a dull day at work today. It's hard to keep myself from dabbling in my FIRE spreadsheets... taking a fiver to post our past couple of months of progress.

Jan 14.6%
Feb 15.2%
Mar 16.6%
Apr 17.4%
May 18.1%
Jun 18.5%
Jul 19.6%
Aug 20.2%
Sep 21.2%

Oct 22.4%
Nov 23.9%

Dec.... TBD - probably in the 25% ballpark

** Amounts above represent percent of net worth required to FIRE at estimated future spending at 4% WD rate, excluding equity in home and one vehicle.

I'm forecasting that we'll somehow have managed to eek out a 53% savings rate for the year, after finding MMM in late spring/early summer. I would have been happy with anything over 50% with this only being a partial year of deliberate expense reductions. I'm hoping for over 60% in 2017 to stay on track for 2020/2021.

So in this dull work moment, doing some quick math on how plausible a 2020 date still is, it looks like we might be able to pull off October 30, 2020 (if all my assumptions on savings rate and interest rates are correct - obviously that's a BIG "if" this early on). Based on what we will have saved in our taxable accounts, that is probably the earliest we could FIRE and still have 5 years of living expenses (plus one year E-fund) to hold us off before our pipeline money kicks in. Odds are however, we may "OMY" for ~7 months until June 11, 2021 to get our bonus and 401K match payouts, and build a healthy cushion for peace of mind.

How is everyone else doing now with the end of the year in sight? Any exciting news or disappointments? Any goals for next year?

desk_jockey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #207 on: December 20, 2016, 09:13:09 PM »
How is everyone else doing now with the end of the year in sight? Any exciting news or disappointments? Any goals for next year?

Checking-in about 18 months after my previous post on this thread.  Iím still tracking with no issues for mid-2020 FIRE option with a withdrawal rate closer to 3.5% than 4.0%.  My portfolio growth rate has been a little under projections for the past 2 years but my savings rate has been higher so itís all close enough for the purposes of my projections.

My real focus has been end-2018 when we will be in position for my spouse to retire.  Once she can take leave and our life is less hectic, then Iíll reevaluate my RE part of our FIRE.   I think that Iíd like to stay engaged in some way, but need to sort out how.  That might mean taking a couple years off starting 2020 then doing some select part-time contract work later, or it could be continuing a few more years in full-SWAMI mode.   Iím just excited about the possibilities that start opening-up after these next 2 years as we approach 4% and she finishes some milestones and obligations.   

onlykelsey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #208 on: December 23, 2016, 07:52:40 AM »
I'm mostly joining to follow.  I think I could be anything from barebones FI Class of 2018 or full retirement with higher annual expenses Class of 2024, so I'm starting here.  NW is currently ~320K, will be adding ~100K/year the next two years, then eventually moving out of Manhattan for somewhere with a lower cost of living.

I'll be 33 in 2020.

Revisiting this post.  It hasn't been quite a year, and I haven't gotten my last 2016 paycheck, but I managed to jump from 320K to 500K since late last January when I made the post, so 2020 is looking pretty safe if I keep going full-steam ahead.

The wildcard is that I'm 39 weeks pregnant, and have no idea what a kid will do to my plans (except apparently cost me between 30 and 40K a year in daycare!).   Glad I moved more quickly than I predicted in my first year of mustachianism, so I have a bit of padding.   

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #209 on: December 23, 2016, 08:21:46 AM »
Congratulations on your pregnancy! Best of luck for delivering a happy and healthy baby. Definitely put the FIRE stuff on the back burner here for an it and give yourself the freedom to spend what you need to in order to stay sane for the next couple of months. A newborn is HARD!

Why do you project daycare will be that expensive? Even here in the middle of the peninsula of the Bay Area (the expensive part of a HCOL area) we found a wonderful in-home daycare that is $1400/month. The expensive daycares near Stanford run around $2k/month. Will you have multiple kids in daycare? I haven't run the numbers for myself, but I have been told by friends that by the time you reach two or more it often makes more financial sense to have a nanny.

onlykelsey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #210 on: December 23, 2016, 09:01:53 AM »
Congratulations on your pregnancy! Best of luck for delivering a happy and healthy baby. Definitely put the FIRE stuff on the back burner here for an it and give yourself the freedom to spend what you need to in order to stay sane for the next couple of months. A newborn is HARD!

Why do you project daycare will be that expensive? Even here in the middle of the peninsula of the Bay Area (the expensive part of a HCOL area) we found a wonderful in-home daycare that is $1400/month. The expensive daycares near Stanford run around $2k/month. Will you have multiple kids in daycare? I haven't run the numbers for myself, but I have been told by friends that by the time you reach two or more it often makes more financial sense to have a nanny.

This is my first, although we are also looking in to a nanny share option.  We live and work in Manhattan, I know there are some decent homecare options available a bit more on the perimeter of the city.  We haven't found any that stay open past 5:30.  We are on the wait list for three places, and they range from 2700/monthly (with 6 weeks of being closed yearly!) to 3600.  I should probably even round up a bit for daycare supplies, extra fees, etc. 

My work actually covers 4 weeks (to be taken all at once, and only at one location of one daycare), so it shouldn't be quite so brutal this year. 

powersuitrecall

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #211 on: December 23, 2016, 12:24:42 PM »
In 2020, I hope to consider myself FI + with a paid off condo. We will be leading the SWAMI lifestyle, however, as both DH & I have very rewarding jobs and plenty of time off for our hobbies / travel. No plans to RE. Just enjoy the good thing we have going :)

Thought I would update - things have changed slightly. We are still on track to reach our target of 1.2M NW by 2020, w/ a fully paid off home (HCOL area). We are currently ~75% of the way there.

DH is still fully enjoying his job, but I have begun to feel burnt out & questioning how much longer I want to spend so much energy on work, despite the fact that I do enjoy it. I will be gradually cutting back as we move towards 2020.

Our plan is to be FI by 2020. I know DH will want to continue to work FT at that point. I fully support that - he LOVES his job. I will then take a gap year (or several, or forever!). We do have a lot of (unpaid) vacation time, so even if DH works & I don't, we will still be able to go on adventures together.

Any income from DH's job post-2020 will just be icing on the cake & we will use it for living expenses, extensive (slow) travel, & investing. That will also allow our existing stash to grow untouched. I can imagine DH retiring early sometime around age 50-55. We will be 41/46 in 2020. He may also decide to take a sabbatical year sometime in his late 40s.

allsummerlong, our situations are very similar.  I may RE in 2019 and my DW (who has an awesome job she loves) would have to work until 2021 in order to hit our FIRE target ... or I work an extra half year and bring RE for her in by a year ... or I suck it up and we could both RE in 2020.

Whatever we decide when the time comes, I am very grateful for the options and freedom that FI provides us and for the support of this community!

It's pretty great to have these kind of choices isn't it?

SCUBAstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #212 on: December 26, 2016, 04:09:30 PM »
Count me in!  Maybe earlier, but I'm shooting for 2020 at the latest. I'll be 35.  Still working on figuring out what to do after, but I look forward to that freedom of choice!

Silly me from a year and a half ago! I don't think I can wait that long, having a serious case of OLY(s). Granted, 2016 has been good to me, with a NW bump of about +150k, so now I'm about 100k shy of my "number" and that's without taking into account future husband income/assets. So I have a gigantic safety net so I'm not sure it's really all the irresponsible to just...quit...if I'm not enjoying my job anymore. Anyway, the next six months will be telling, but I'm tentatively shooting for FIRE in 2018, but maybe even as early as next year.

It's nice to see all the progress here, I'll continue to lurk and start lurking in the '17/'18 groups, too!

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #213 on: December 26, 2016, 08:33:43 PM »

The big financial accomplishment this month was setting up an i401k for my wife in our Vanguard account.  I can't believe we hadn't done this in past years, but we plan to fully fund it ($18k) this month for 2016.


Just a follow-up on last month's realization re: starting a i401k for my wife ... we got her set up in Vanguard, and fully funded before the EOY. Tax win!

Have also been doing some reading and number crunching re: our target SWR, and happy to say that the previous (ultra) conservative target of 3% will likely be replaced by either 3.25 or 3.50% going forward.  A bit more thinking to be done, but that will "shift" our % progress needle even further in a positive direction.  I will keep the final 2016 status connected to the previous 3% SWR goal, but will make the SWR shift permanent going forward for our tracking starting in 2017.  Hint - it is still going to be conservative, but will plan to lay out our thought process a bit more coherently.

I hope all are enjoying a quiet Christmas and holiday season ... we returned home to 80 degrees today, and found our urban garden full of December edibles!  Picked some long beans, kumquats, lettuce greens and oranges ... and the broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, beets & carrots are coming in fast!  Not sure whether the brussels sprouts are going to give us much of anything :)

Half Stached

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #214 on: December 30, 2016, 08:10:48 PM »
I just finished my year end budgeting, so it is time for a quarterly update! This is our first full calendar year here, and things are going great:

7/15: 41.6% FI
10/15: 40.1%
1/16: 45.6%
4/16: 50.4%
7/16: 53.7%
10/16: 60.7%* (due to reducing expenses and better modeling, we reduced our FI target from 1.8million to 1.7)
1/17: 63.5%

The good:
We're 60K ahead of where we projected at the beginning of 2016
We saved 71% of our post-tax income

The bad:
Part of reducing our FI target was due to assuming ACA and social security remain as projected. These assumptions are now more risky.

Assuming the government doesn't do crazy things to the ACA and social security, we're on track for a 4/19 FIRE date. If they do, we're probably back to 4/20.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #215 on: January 02, 2017, 05:40:49 PM »
Hey 2020 people!  Putting the wraps on 2016, by most counts it was a good year.  We started in earnest on our FIRE journey in 2015 after years of so-so habits, and shifted our sights to April 2020 as our target to FIRE from the corporate world and move to our "dream" LCOL location.

Notable 2016 accomplishments:

Savings Rate = 65.5%
Giving Rate = 12.5%
/// Rates relative to net income after taxes ///

EOY 2015 FIRE Progress = 51.8%
EOY 2016 FIRE Progress = 65.2%
/// FI defined as 3% SWR and mortgage-free ///

Notable 2017 adjustments:

As noted before, our SWR target has been too conservative.  Rather than a 3.0% SWR, we have adjusted to a target of 3.5%.  This appears to appropriately cover our personal scenario, considering our 1) 50-year time horizons, 2) desires to leave a portion of our nest egg behind, and 3) current elevated equity valuations.

Our target FIRE nest egg total has been revised downward, includes the following components, and is still conservative:

1. 3.5% SWR nest egg (100% equity allocation)
2. Home Equity in LCOL location (i.e., no mortgage)
3. Cash Fund (covering 1.5 years expenses, transitioning from HCOL to LCOL location)
4. Donor Advised Fund (100% equity allocation) for future charitable giving (tax-efficient vehicle)

These updates, along with softening the SWR from 3.0% to 3.5% changes our "countdown" percent progress toward FIRE to:

/// EOY 2016 FIRE Progress = 70.9% ///

Our key goals for 2017 include:

1. Sustain (or beat) a savings rate of 65.5%
2. Allocate 100% of existing investments into equities by EOY (we took some off the table at SPY $226.50)
3. Demonstrate proof of concept for future side hustle
4. Implement Donor Advised Fund, begin funding
5. Travel to LCOL for our 2nd visit, to continue our recon work

Happy New Year!

FIREby2021
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 05:42:40 PM by FIREby2021 »

FIRE 20/20

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #216 on: January 20, 2017, 08:47:17 AM »

Our key goals for 2017 include:

1. Sustain (or beat) a savings rate of 65.5%
2. Allocate 100% of existing investments into equities by EOY (we took some off the table at SPY $226.50)
3. Demonstrate proof of concept for future side hustle
4. Implement Donor Advised Fund, begin funding
5. Travel to LCOL for our 2nd visit, to continue our recon work

FIREby2021

It's interesting to see what you're doing in 2017 to get ready, and I'm curious what other people are doing as well.  We've started keeping a budget for the first time.  I've never felt the need for one before because we've done a pretty good job of living on roughly half our income, but I want a lot more precision now that we're getting close to FIRE.  If I assume we spend $3,000 / mo. and it's actually $4,000 or more then we're going to be in trouble!  I realize that our expenses will change in retirement, but if I have a solid baseline then I should be able to make better predictions. 

In addition we're trying to cut some unnecessary expenses.  Playing with my predicted retirement budget (to be verified by tracking our 2017 spending) has highlighted some areas we could save, like satellite TV, car expenses, and our landline phone.  I plan to cancel the TV service and landline this month, and in spring I plan to sell the old car that I used to race. 

I have tiny kernel of hope that we might be able to pull the plug even earlier than 2020, and hopefully tracking our spending will be able to solidify whether or not that's possible. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #217 on: January 20, 2017, 10:06:48 AM »
Would LOVE to be able to join you guys and gals, sadly my realistic FIRE date is ~2027.

I could be considered FI by Dec 31 2020 if I moved to a 3rd world country -_-

Does that make me an honorary member?

I half jokingly made this post ~21 months ago.

As the work grind has been getting harder and harder to stomach, it is becoming more and more of a stretch goal. A large part of it will depend on my income over the next 3 1/2 years, but I think end of 2020 is possible. At least a SEMI-FI level.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #218 on: January 20, 2017, 10:59:05 AM »
I am still hopeful that I will have the 2020 option.  I am mainly working until the end of 2020 because that is when I can get my pension payout.  I am not really saving anything additional to what I have and am mainly still trying to keep my expenses within my income (I am definitely not a hardcore Mustachian). 

The main thing I am worried about that may derail my FIRE plans is health insurance.  A lot will depend upon how health insurance is restructured in the next couple of years and whether or not protections are put in place for people with pre-existing conditions.  I got diagnosed with something early last year (which has been treated and I'm doing fine) that I could see being a barrier to affordable health insurance in the future.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 02:15:03 PM by BFGirl »

nemesis

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #219 on: January 20, 2017, 01:42:31 PM »
I am still hopeful that I will have the 2020 option.  I am mainly working until the end of 2020 because that is when I can get my pension payout.  I am not really saving anything additional to what I have and am mainly still trying to keep my expenses within my income (I am definitely not a hardcore Mustachian). 

The main thing I am worried about that may derail my FIRE plans is health insurance.  A lot will depend upon how health insurance is restructured in the next couple of years and whether or not protections are put in place for people with pre-existing conditions.  I got diagnosed with something early this year (which has been treated and I'm doing fine) that I could see being a barrier to affordable health insurance in the future.
Very true.  I could FIRE pretty much if I wanted to, except for uncertainty around health insurance and unexpected medical costs.  That's why I keep working, for the employer insurance plan and benefits.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #220 on: February 01, 2017, 11:25:05 AM »
January 2017 was a bit rough for us.  Had some significant (expected) medical and property tax expenses, and the energy holdings in my 401k were pretty weak to start the year.  So a muted savings month for January is generally to be expected, but poor market performance didn't offset those factors.

ANYWAY, we are pumped for this year and for reaching our goals!

EOY 2016:  70.9% (toward our previously discussed revised FIRE goal)
JAN 2017:  70.3%

Next!

FIREby2021

Roothy

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #221 on: February 03, 2017, 04:44:20 PM »
I'm joining.

End of 2020 is guaranteed unless, of course, the market tanks.  (And no, I'm not protecting myself from that.  I'm invested about 90/10, and will just work longer if I have to.)

Beginning of 2020 is a reach.

As most of you in this thread, I'm being too conservative. We'll see if I can really bring myself to keep working almost four more years. 

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #222 on: March 01, 2017, 09:41:58 AM »
February 2017 is in the books!  My new "countdown" shows 26 months to go!  It has been particularly difficult at work lately, which makes that seem VERY FAR away!  Despite continued market strength, much of that was offset by poor relative performance in our energy holdings.  Grumble grumble, but we continue to DCA into our long-term strong dividend company at a lower cost basis.  Finished up with those medical expenses (for now), and allocated some capital to fund the side-gig concept.  So, month-on-month, if you squint you can see the progress needle moved a tick upward :-)

EOY 2016:  70.9%
JAN 2017:  70.3%
FEB 2017:  70.4%

FIREby2021

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #223 on: March 01, 2017, 12:08:15 PM »
February 2017 is in the books! 

I'm glad I'm not the only one that gets kind of excited the 1st of every month when I get to run my numbers!

We have had a really great start to 2017, in part due to market gains, but we also saved 56% and 60% of income in January and February as compared to an average 53% in 2016. We are on track to hit our goals for 2017 (actually ahead of them so far), and March and April should be big months for us (3 paycheck month in March and bonuses/raises in April).

We're in good shape, have set our dates (October 2020 for SO and June 2021 for me) and have entered the "hurry up and wait" mode. The major changes for us were in 2016 and we're now just making small tweaks to investments and expenses wherever possible.

For example, I front loaded our 401ks this year, which isn't something I've done before. I also was approved for a higher % back credit card. Towards the end of this year we'll be able to exit our costly Verizon plan for something more reasonable. I also set up recurring, every other week payments into our Vanguard investments rather than manually sweeping excess cash at the end of the month. None of these things will make us REESH overnight, but every little bit helps.

Progress to our FI goal so far is as follows:

Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)

Just keep swimming :)

BlueMR2

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #224 on: March 01, 2017, 05:54:34 PM »
I also love seeing another month go into the books, especially when it's one that I come in well under budget.  :-)  January and February I managed to come in at nearly half my budget despite some car repairs and tool purchases I'd not planned on!

The job is feeling a bit shaky though.  I'm really burned out at this point, it's a major struggle to get up and go to work some days, but really want to do another 3 years.  My *total* figures are fine for retirement now, HOWEVER, I'm very retirement side heavy and weak on the front side to carry me there.  I'll be solid in 3 more years, but if I don't make it that long I may end up eating some penalties due to cash flow if we have a down market.  Sigh.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #225 on: April 01, 2017, 04:45:31 PM »
With March 2017 behind us, that provided me the opportunity to update my whiteboard countdown @ the office to show 25 months left ... who knows?!

Some positive organizational changes at work are giving me some reasons to look forward to the remainder of 2017, so that's nice.  Our monthly savings goals were exceeded this month and our irregular medical expenses appear to be behind us for now.  Spring is springing and our urban garden is growing (currently harvesting herbs, lettuce & kale, blueberries, & strawberries!).  My potential future side-gig concept, funded last month, yielded a positive return for March.  Overall, month-on-month progress continues toward our NW goal, ticking the needle ever forward!  Hope y'all are having a great month.

EOY 2016:   70.9%
JAN 2017:   70.3%
FEB 2017:   70.4%
MAR 2017:  71.4%

FIREby2021

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #226 on: April 02, 2017, 07:31:44 AM »
This may be a version of OMY syndrome, but I found out this week that my employer will pay 60% of my health insurance if I stay to the end of 2022 as opposed to 45% if I go at the end of 2020.  But I don't know that the savings of approximately $24,000 (bridges the gap between retirement and Medicare) is worth 2 more years of my life. Of course my pension payout would also increase if I stayed longer. I guess it just depends on a lot of factors at that time, so we shall see. 

NorCal

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #227 on: April 02, 2017, 07:56:19 AM »
Just re-ran my numbers through the Personal Capital Retirement Planner.  It's my new favorite online retirement planner since it lets me change all the variables in a single spot.

Anyways, 2020 is still looking possible, but likely on the early side.  We're more likely 2022ish to add a margin of safety.  Some of it comes down to choices within our control (where we move to from CA) vs factors outside our control (markets), so we'll see where we end up.

Having a stock market downturn between now and then would give me a lot more comfort that the portfolio would last.

Half Stached

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #228 on: April 02, 2017, 11:46:57 AM »
Our best quarter yet! Between strong investment returns and a larger than expected bonus, we made a lot of progress in the past three months:

7/15: 41.6% FI
10/15: 40.1%
1/16: 45.6%
4/16: 50.4%
7/16: 53.7%
10/16: 60.7%* (due to reducing expenses and better modeling, we reduced our FI target from 1.8million to 1.7)
1/17: 63.5%
4/17: 75.3%

If we could only make this kind of progress all the time... We've started looking for our retirement home (we'd like to buy, and rent now). This will probably shift our targets slightly, but also improve our modeling further. Assuming that we don't buy something too expensive, I hope to move things up to 2019 instead of 2020.

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #229 on: April 03, 2017, 01:30:55 PM »
Our best quarter yet!

This was a great quarter for us too.

Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)
Mar 2017 - 29.1% (77% savings rate)

Note that I'm paid every other week, so March was a 3 paycheck month, hence the stupid high savings rate.

At the end of 2016 I made a post in the Bogleheads forums to ask for some portfolio advice and I mentioned that I thought we'd be able to save $100K this year. One person kind of scoffed, noting that based on the history I had provided we had never saved that much in the past, so what made us think we could save that much now. Well, I'm happy to report that we saved $26K in Q1 (does not include mortgage payments, employer contributions or market earnings)! So take that you Boglehead-Negative-Nancy!

Really though, I'm very happy with our progress. My lofty goal of 65% savings rate seems to be totally achievable (Q1 savings rate = 65.4%). I would say we're still very much on track for our planned split retirement - hubs in fall of 2020 and myself in spring of 2021. Hopefully our annual raises don't disappoint, which we should know in the next two weeks or so.

steveo

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #230 on: April 04, 2017, 04:03:38 PM »
I'll add my numbers to this thread.

My savings rate is about 70%. I don't calculate it monthly. I don't track spending either. It's just savings/income.

I have 2 broad asset groups because I'm Australian and we have Super which you can't touch until 60. My money post 60 is done. I don't see any problems there. I'm 41% towards my out of super (or get to 60) money complete. I'm not sure what my overall target WR will be but I expect it to be 5% or greater.

I'm cool with the 5% WR because we can sell our house and downsize if there are any dramas.

As for the mental side of the picture I've had enough of work and I can't wait to quit. I think I just have to keep plodding along and see what happens but I'm completely uninspired by work. I do think now that 2020 is going to be fairly easy to hit assuming that the market doesn't completely crash but then I'd probably just work part time.

albireo13

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #231 on: April 14, 2017, 08:33:28 PM »
Looking towards 2020:
 *  have $1.4M in savings (401K, IRA, 403B)
* have $340K mortgage (ugh) .... house valued at $460K+
* have $24K in short term debt (car loans, CC, etc)


  Our savings are good but the debt bothers me.  My plan is to devote the next few years to clobber the debt at all costs.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #232 on: April 29, 2017, 11:30:01 AM »
Not much to report, just grinding.  Minor changes reflected in historical numbers related to an accounting error I fixed in my spreadsheet.  Will update my (stretch goal) countdown # on my whiteboard to 24-months on Monday (2 years?!?!).  Feels less likely to meet that stretch target with each passing month.

EOY 2016:   70.6%
JAN 2017:   70.0%
FEB 2017:   70.2%
MAR 2017:  71.2%
APR 2017:   71.9%

FIREby2021

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #233 on: May 01, 2017, 10:26:54 AM »
We're still plugging away too. Another great month, as my bonus got paid in April. I also was surprised by a very hefty raise that I wasn't planning on, so that made our aggressive goals seem less aggressive. I think 2020 is still on the table, though if 2020 is a year where my company is going to meet bonus, I may stay until April 2021. We'll see once we get there.

I see great progress for everyone - just keep swimming people! FYI it's kind of fun to pop into the 2017 thread to see how their year is going. We'll be there soon :)

Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)
Mar 2017 - 29.1% (77% savings rate)
Apr 2017 - 30.7% (71% savings rate)

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #234 on: June 02, 2017, 07:41:41 AM »
Tick! Another month ... our stretch goal countdown now shows UNDER 2 years (23-months), is that even possible?!?  I swing back and forth between this feeling like an unattainable time frame, yet I still want to be hopeful ... ehhh, "hope is not a plan", so just going to keep taking it 1 month at a time until we get there.  Even our 'realistic' target of 2Q-2020 would be quite the victory.  A theme as of late, our energy holdings are an anchor to real progress (down 15% YTD), but we continue to DCA.

- Vegetable garden has been producing well ... we made a ton of pickles, and harvested many a tomato, pepper + kale. Sweet potatoes in the ground now as well.
- Heading on a vacation next week (!!) with some close friends to continue experiencing / learning our potential LCOL future location. Ready for the break from work, and the heat & humidity!
- Side gig idea really hasn't gotten off the ground yet, given busy schedule with work & other priorities ... maybe an update next quarter?
- Health improvements continue for both of us!

EOY 2016:   70.6%
JAN 2017:   70.0%
FEB 2017:   70.2%
MAR 2017:  71.2%
APR 2017:   71.9%
MAY 2017:   72.4%

FIREby2021

ixtap

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #235 on: June 15, 2017, 01:13:44 AM »
2020 is starting to look good for us. A year and a half ago, we were aiming for my partner's milestone birthday, then we switched to my milestone birthday, which shaved two years off. Our most recent checkup, along with finally defining a number, rather than a year, shaved a couple more years off.

Partner's golden handcuffs vest the same season that we need to start what we are retiring to, so if we miss our target, we miss by a year.

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #236 on: June 15, 2017, 01:34:24 AM »
Great to see things coming together here, some people like me who were planning for post 2020 but might sneak in, those on schedule and the 2020's who may manage it earlier. My plan is looking possibly by Autumn 2020 if keep working at the same rate, and get a 6% return.

How is everyone finding keeping on track, since we still have around 3 years to go?

As we get nearer the time, I'm getting more and more motivated, and more willing to trim and trim expenses. My passport ran out this year, and I'm actually letting it lapse for a year, as I'm curtailing foreign holidays to save funds; with the pound dropping in value seems like  great time to do this. I'm spinning the story to non MMM people that I'm cutting back on holidays now to have an amazing 2 year sabbatical holiday, which people can understand, although the concept of FIRE seems alien to them.

ixtap

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #237 on: June 15, 2017, 03:25:15 AM »
Great to see things coming together here, some people like me who were planning for post 2020 but might sneak in, those on schedule and the 2020's who may manage it earlier. My plan is looking possibly by Autumn 2020 if keep working at the same rate, and get a 6% return.

How is everyone finding keeping on track, since we still have around 3 years to go?

As we get nearer the time, I'm getting more and more motivated, and more willing to trim and trim expenses. My passport ran out this year, and I'm actually letting it lapse for a year, as I'm curtailing foreign holidays to save funds; with the pound dropping in value seems like  great time to do this. I'm spinning the story to non MMM people that I'm cutting back on holidays now to have an amazing 2 year sabbatical holiday, which people can understand, although the concept of FIRE seems alien to them.

We are old hands at the lifestyle, but new to the calculations. This makes it easy to stay the course. However, seeing that three years is possible freaked us out enough we have started to talk about letting our parents know about the timeline. They know the general outline of the plan, but most of them have convinced themselves that it is just a pipe dream. None of them are as batty as Grandma was when my parents moved out of the country, but that experience means that it is important to me to prepare them before we move on our plans.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #238 on: June 16, 2017, 08:26:40 AM »
I'll be at 51% to FIRE by end of June.

I might not be able to fire by end of 2020.....because I'll be taking a 9 month sabbatical April 1 2020, afterwhich I will have to return to work for a bit to finish the grind to 100%.

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #239 on: June 16, 2017, 02:07:18 PM »
I'll be at 51% to FIRE by end of June.

I might not be able to fire by end of 2020.....because I'll be taking a 9 month sabbatical April 1 2020, afterwhich I will have to return to work for a bit to finish the grind to 100%.

Great progress, I'm at 49.3% now, will cross the magical half way mark next month as well.

Sabbatical sounds awesome, what are you planning for the 9 months?

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #240 on: June 16, 2017, 02:18:42 PM »
I'll be at 51% to FIRE by end of June.

I might not be able to fire by end of 2020.....because I'll be taking a 9 month sabbatical April 1 2020, afterwhich I will have to return to work for a bit to finish the grind to 100%.

Great progress, I'm at 49.3% now, will cross the magical half way mark next month as well.

Sabbatical sounds awesome, what are you planning for the 9 months?

Early April -> End of June I will fly to Poland where most of my family is. Spend time with them, hike the Tatra mountains for 2 weeks, venture west toward Portugal and slow travel for the last 3-4 weeks around Europe.

End of June -> End of August 10 week motorcycle trip with my dad, he will be retiring that year and we are leaving NY for Alaska by way of Canada, returning down the west coast, through the arizona/colorado/utah region and up the Appalachian mountain range. Taking our sweet time to take in the sights, sounds, and foods along the way.

Sept - January 1st, enjoy fall in New England, while taking some shorter mini trips around the country. Spend holidays with family and friends.

January -> tbd go back to work at current Mega Corp for 2-3 years till full FIRE target is reached....OR go back to work PT or work intermittently while the stache grows in the background.


Really excited for this.

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #241 on: June 16, 2017, 02:34:50 PM »
Love the plans 2Birds -  a good mixture of family, adventure and locations.

Less than 3 years to go...

tawyer

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #242 on: June 25, 2017, 11:55:06 AM »
PTF and bookmark all the information here.

We are arguably FI now but are wanting to derisk the RE aspect by reducing our SWR because we are in our 30s. And because US healthcare. In 2020 we will both have 40 credits, so SS will in theory be adequate to support us when we get there, so if our stash runs out, that's a backup plan.

Looking forward to reading more from those on a similar timeline!

DeanHedlund

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #243 on: June 30, 2017, 04:23:09 PM »
We are shooting for 2020, it just sounds cool :)

We have created the project plan that includes financial tracking, various charts, notes, tasks, challenges, and wishes. It will give us enough time to plan and execute it. For example, we need to select the base city while we travel internationally for a long period of time. We also need to update the house for sale, research agent, etc.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #244 on: July 01, 2017, 02:48:30 PM »
Well, slow & steady progress continues, but nothing fancy.  Even though our stretch target timeline now shows 22-months, periods like this remind us that the more realistic goal appears to be early (1Q) 2020.  Despite staying rock-steady with our savings goals, the prior 6 months have yielded 1/2 the rate of progress vs. 2016's uber-bullish result.  It has given us great opportunity to stay focused on the things we do enjoy while working here in our HCOL location, to help avoid being too consumed with a number or a target.  Still, we track, measure & celebrate the progress we have, staying motivated toward our goals!

Highlights from June include:
- Made our 2nd visit to our future LCOL town as a vacation w/some close friends who are considering the same relocation!  We had a blast enjoying the outdoors, met a wonderful housing contact, and received further confirmation that this will be our likely landing spot :)
- Health improvements continue!  I've really been enjoying a yoga practice as my new venture this year.
- Summer heat is HERE ... peppers & tomatoes are about done, tomatillos, sweet potatoes & eggplant appear to be next ... with July/August seeing a wind down in most of our gardening activity due to excessive heat & watering needs.
- Side gig likely to get off the ground during 3Q-2017, following the current busy season @ work

EOY 2016:   70.6%
JAN 2017:   70.0%
FEB 2017:   70.2%
MAR 2017:  71.2%
APR 2017:   71.9%
MAY 2017:   72.4%
JUN 2017:   73.3%

FIREby2021
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 02:28:08 PM by FIREby2021 »

BlueMR2

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #245 on: July 02, 2017, 05:38:28 AM »
Right now, I'm just glad things went so well for us the last couple of years, getting us way ahead of schedule.  My wife's out of work now, my job's iffy, and we're looking to run about 10% over budget this year (and that's if nothing else goes seriously wrong).  Hopefully we can at least break even (job income vs. expenses) and not have to tap into the investments.  Fingers crossed.

Half Stached

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #246 on: July 02, 2017, 11:16:13 AM »
This past quarter we bought a condo (cash), so our numbers changed a lot. The market here in Seattle is rather crazy, so it cost a bit more than we expected. That being said, we're still on track for 2020, and I'll probably go part time in 2019. Also, it feels good to know that we don't have to worry about large rent increases anymore - those have been a regularity around here.

7/15: 41.6% FI
10/15: 40.1%
1/16: 45.6%
4/16: 50.4%
7/16: 53.7%
10/16: 60.7%* (due to reducing expenses and better modeling, we reduced our FI target from 1.8million to 1.7)
1/17: 63.5%
4/17: 75.3%
7/17: 44.4* (Not counting the condo. This also allowed us to reduce our FI target from 1.7million to 1.3.)

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #247 on: July 03, 2017, 08:44:53 AM »
It's been a great first half for us. It's too early to tell of course but I think 2020 is still on the table. I still think 2021 would be "safer" but we'll certainly see how we feel when we get there (and who the hell knows what the market will do in the meantime). I'm hoping for 40% by year-end (don't think we'll quite get there, but I'll settle for a "rounded up" 40%). Our goal at the beginning of this year was 65% savings rate which we're fairly close to.

Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)
Mar 2017 - 29.1% (77% savings rate)
65.4% Q1 Savings Rate
Apr 2017 - 30.7% (71% savings rate)
May 2017 - 31.8% (59% savings rate)
Jun 2017 - 33.0% (55% savings rate)
63.0% Q2 Savings Rate

Starting to feel like a broken record at family gatherings... "Oh what have you two been up to these days?" "Just working, saving money... living the dream?" I mean, it feels rather uneventful when everyone else is like LOOK at this new car I got or LOOK I have pictures of our new gigantic house. I'm over here like LOOK we have so much patience in achieving a multi-year self-sufficiency goal that we have none of those things! Yeesh haha :)

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #248 on: July 03, 2017, 11:17:48 AM »
It's been a great first half for us. It's too early to tell of course but I think 2020 is still on the table. I still think 2021 would be "safer" but we'll certainly see how we feel when we get there (and who the hell knows what the market will do in the meantime). I'm hoping for 40% by year-end (don't think we'll quite get there, but I'll settle for a "rounded up" 40%). Our goal at the beginning of this year was 65% savings rate which we're fairly close to.

Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)
Mar 2017 - 29.1% (77% savings rate)
65.4% Q1 Savings Rate
Apr 2017 - 30.7% (71% savings rate)
May 2017 - 31.8% (59% savings rate)
Jun 2017 - 33.0% (55% savings rate)
63.0% Q2 Savings Rate

Starting to feel like a broken record at family gatherings... "Oh what have you two been up to these days?" "Just working, saving money... living the dream?" I mean, it feels rather uneventful when everyone else is like LOOK at this new car I got or LOOK I have pictures of our new gigantic house. I'm over here like LOOK we have so much patience in achieving a multi-year self-sufficiency goal that we have none of those things! Yeesh haha :)

Great job with the savings rate Rubyvroom!  We share similar savings rate goals for 2017, although we're tracking behind at the mid-year point (~60%).  Some people like to buy new cars & big houses, often many seek to buy others' affections ... then some of us are seeking to buy back TIME! 

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #249 on: July 03, 2017, 11:50:33 AM »

Starting to feel like a broken record at family gatherings... "Oh what have you two been up to these days?" "Just working, saving money... living the dream?" I mean, it feels rather uneventful when everyone else is like LOOK at this new car I got or LOOK I have pictures of our new gigantic house. I'm over here like LOOK we have so much patience in achieving a multi-year self-sufficiency goal that we have none of those things! Yeesh haha :)

Well done on the savings rate there :)

I think you need a re-frame on your updates - rather than saying you've being working and saving, can't you promote your low cost and frugal hobbies?

I save a lot, but I'm still out most nights; free screenings, tech events, cheap theatre tickets, free gallery nights, volunteering all cost little in value, but add a lot in happiness and enjoyment of life.