Author Topic: (Dramatic) depreciation of all gasoline cars when electrics become affordable  (Read 30812 times)

Jamesqf

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It doesn't really matter though; my point was to illustrate the huge gap between liquid hydrocarbons and everything else).

Sure, and when you could get large quantities of nearly free energy just by pumping it out of the ground, efficiency didn't matter all that much.  But a) it isn't so nearly free as it used to be; and b) some of us, at least, have realized there are serious consequences to doing so.  So it makes sense to look at alternative to petroleum.

Seems to me that with current tech, both extremes leave a lot to be desired.  The optimum (for most uses) is something like the Chevy Volt.  Batteries for short-range travel and to assist with acceleration, plus a small IC engine running at its most efficient to give practical long-range capability.

Jack

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Jack:  So 200 pounds engine, 150 pounds diesel, 300 pounds transmission would be reasonable to assume?

Compare that to the best Lithium batteries and you would need over 3 tons of batteries to travel a similar distance (800 miles on a tank).

No, 300 pounds for a transmission is not reasonable to assume. The one for my VW weighs about 70 (and I know this because I'm in the middle of a transmission swap and was carrying it around today!)

Maybe the transmission of some huge truck weighs that much; I don't know.

skunkfunk

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Jack:  So 200 pounds engine, 150 pounds diesel, 300 pounds transmission would be reasonable to assume?

Compare that to the best Lithium batteries and you would need over 3 tons of batteries to travel a similar distance (800 miles on a tank).

No, 300 pounds for a transmission is not reasonable to assume. The one for my VW weighs about 70 (and I know this because I'm in the middle of a transmission swap and was carrying it around today!)

Maybe the transmission of some huge truck weighs that much; I don't know.

It can vary a lot. I can't carry the TH400 automatic that's in my car by myself. I think the transmission in my pickup (light duty 5-speed) is a lot smaller, though. Haven't had that one out, yet.

Jamesqf

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It can vary a lot. I can't carry the TH400 automatic that's in my car by myself.

Maybe you need to work out more :-)  Or maybe the problem was buying a car with an automatic transmission.

jba302

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I know at least 1 person here is an engineer that can answer this question but I've always wondered why those frictionless flywheels aren't used in cars. What's the major issues with those, boom-boom potential?

Jack

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I know at least 1 person here is an engineer that can answer this question but I've always wondered why those frictionless flywheels aren't used in cars. What's the major issues with those, boom-boom potential?

First, there's (practically speaking) no such thing as "frictionless." There's "very low friction," but that's it.

Second, apparently they're pretty high-tech (the flywheel itself is carbon fiber; the bearings are magnetic instead of mechanical, etc). Apparently the technology is even less well developed than batteries for automotive applications.

Third, they necessarily have so much angular momentum that they cause large gyroscopic forces and do weird things to the car's handling.

Fourth, there probably is "boom-boom potential," but I'd think that's the least important factor since it can be engineered around and any kind of dense energy storage has similar potential, almost by definition (gasoline, lithium and hydrogen are all pretty damn reactive...).

Roland of Gilead

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I think a 1000 pound flywheel spinning at 100,000 rpm would look pretty cool in the air after a head on collision.

sol

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I think a 1000 pound flywheel spinning at 100,000 rpm would look pretty cool in the air after a head on collision.

You don't even need a collision.  Anyone who has played with a toy gyroscope will see the potential for mishaps here.  Mount it horizontally and going up or down a hill will put you up on your left or right wheels.  Mount it vertically and turning a corner will pop a wheelie.  You just can't win.  Any system with enough w to actually be useful for storing energy would totally dominate the car's direction of travel.

Roland of Gilead

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Fourth, there probably is "boom-boom potential," but I'd think that's the least important factor since it can be engineered around and any kind of dense energy storage has similar potential, almost by definition (gasoline, lithium and hydrogen are all pretty damn reactive...).

Again, diesel wins here.  Sure it is flammable but it does not produce the explosive vapors of gasoline.

jba302

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First, there's (practically speaking) no such thing as "frictionless." There's "very low friction," but that's it.

Second, apparently they're pretty high-tech (the flywheel itself is carbon fiber; the bearings are magnetic instead of mechanical, etc). Apparently the technology is even less well developed than batteries for automotive applications.

Third, they necessarily have so much angular momentum that they cause large gyroscopic forces and do weird things to the car's handling.

Fourth, there probably is "boom-boom potential," but I'd think that's the least important factor since it can be engineered around and any kind of dense energy storage has similar potential, almost by definition (gasoline, lithium and hydrogen are all pretty damn reactive...).

These are all good reasons. I appreciate it. And yes I meant "frictionless" not frictionless. I did some searching after asking this and you got yourself a good list of reasons. Thanks!

Jack

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Again, diesel wins here.  Sure it is flammable but it does not produce the explosive vapors of gasoline.

Indeed. I have an interesting anecdote about that, actually:

There's an automated biodiesel filling station  near me. The company initially constructed it as a tank, a pump and a credit-card reader built into a shipping container, and operated it that way for a year or so. Then the fire department noticed and forced them to shut down and rebuild it to some kind of higher safety standard (the same as gas stations, presumably).

But why? The grocery stores sell the same* damn thing in thin plastic jugs! When it's labeled "cooking oil" it's safe, but when it's labeled "fuel" it isn't. It makes no logical sense.

(*other than transesterification)

Roland of Gilead

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I think I read you can throw a match into a open pail of diesel fuel and it will go out.  Try that with gasoline.

(Really though DON'T try that with either one!)

Jamesqf

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You don't even need a collision.  Anyone who has played with a toy gyroscope will see the potential for mishaps here.  Mount it horizontally and going up or down a hill will put you up on your left or right wheels.  Mount it vertically and turning a corner will pop a wheelie.  You just can't win.  Any system with enough w to actually be useful for storing energy would totally dominate the car's direction of travel.

A 'problem' that is easily solved by mounting the flywheel in gimbals: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimbal

As for why flywheels are not used, I think it's more a matter of inertia - mental, not physical.  Why did it take hybrids so long to catch on - to the extent they have, anyway.  Why do so many people choose oversized SUVs?

sol

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A 'problem' that is easily solved by mounting the flywheel in gimbals:

Yes, we all know what a gimbal is but thanks for the link. 

Gimbals are great for isolating a gyroscope.  But they totally defeat the purpose of a flywheel as an energy storage device because you still need to gear the flywheel to your transmission as it moves around on 3 axes relative to your drivetrain.  That's some Transformer level complicated engineering, not totally impossible but so complicated, expensive, and heavy that it has effectively nixed practical flywheels in vehicles since the beginning of time.

AlexK

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I think I read you can throw a match into a open pail of diesel fuel and it will go out.  Try that with gasoline.

(Really though DON'T try that with either one!)

That's true. I did an experiment which involved burning a 23 foot diameter pool of jet fuel (just like diesel fuel) and it was hard to light it. We made a paper boat, filled it full of gasoline, and lit that.

Jamesqf

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Yes, we all know what a gimbal is but thanks for the link.

I'm not so sure that everyone knew, so I think it's only courteous to provide links.

Quote
Gimbals are great for isolating a gyroscope.  But they totally defeat the purpose of a flywheel as an energy storage device because you still need to gear the flywheel to your transmission as it moves around on 3 axes relative to your drivetrain. 

But why on Earth would you use gears, or any sort of mechanical linkage?  Just make the flywheel the rotor of an electric motor-generator.  That solves all sorts of other problems, like keeping the rotor in a vacuum, which would be pretty difficult with a mechanical linkage.

sol

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Just make the flywheel the rotor of an electric motor-generator.  That solves all sorts of other problems, like keeping the rotor in a vacuum

This is sexy.  Please build it and then drive it to my house so I can check it out.

Jamesqf

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^ Find me the startup financing, and I'd be happy to :-)

TomTX

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^ Find me the startup financing, and I'd be happy to :-)

Write up a whitepaper and send it to Elon Musk. He's an excellent judge of both innovative engineering and investments. Made his billions with Paypal, then started Tesla*, SpaceX**, SolarCity... The man has both Vision and the capability to make things really Happen.


wortdog

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Electronic flywheels have existed in racing since at least 2009 :)


greaper007

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Alternative forms of vehicle power aren't really going to take hold until the infrastructure allows it.   It took until 1922 for cars to outnumber horses.   Beyond the price of cars, the lack of suitable roads and gas stations really drove that.    We also have to remember that that occurred without multi-billion dollar international corporations using shady deals to make sure that people bought horse feed instead of gas.

Actually, I don't think it will happen until Exxon Mobil starts selling battery packs or super speed charges at their stations.

BlueMR2

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I think a 1000 pound flywheel spinning at 100,000 rpm would look pretty cool in the air after a head on collision.

Out at the track a few years ago I saw a flywheel break free of a car.  Amazing.  It was a lightweight (probably 10-12lbs or so), in a car that was revving 10,000 rpms or less.  It shot up through everything above the trans in the engine bay (cutting a flywheel sized slot), through the hood (leaving a slot again) and went up in the air higher than the really tall scoreboard...  If it had departed backwards and there had been a passenger in the car, they'd have been dead in an instant.  Flywheels of even small sizes contain very large amounts of energy.  That makes them useful, but mechanical energy storage is subject to interesting failures...  I strongly dislike batteries (I deal with them a lot and they have lots of problems too), but I'll take batteries over flywheels any day.

MustachianAccountant

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What they say in the US is "so goes CA so goes the US" or something like that.

LOL, I'm pretty sure only people who live in CA say that.

Roland of Gilead

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What they say in the US is "so goes CA so goes the US" or something like that.

LOL, I'm pretty sure only people who live in CA say that.

The people in the rest of the USA say "there goes CA, good riddance"

Jamesqf

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Out at the track a few years ago I saw a flywheel break free of a car.  Amazing.  It was a lightweight (probably 10-12lbs or so), in a car that was revving 10,000 rpms or less. 

The flywheels used in cars are very different than those used for energy storage.  See e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flywheel_energy_storage
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When the tensile strength of a composite flywheel's outer binding cover is exceeded, the binding cover will fracture, followed by the wheel shattering as the outer wheel compression is lost around the entire circumference, releasing all of its stored energy at once; this is commonly referred to as "flywheel explosion" since wheel fragments can reach kinetic energy comparable to that of a bullet. Composite materials that are wound and glued in layers tend to disintegrate quickly, first into small-diameter filaments that entangle and slow each other, and then into red-hot powder, instead of large chunks of high-velocity shrapnel as can occur with a cast metal flywheel.

Roland of Gilead

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Out at the track a few years ago I saw a flywheel break free of a car.  Amazing.  It was a lightweight (probably 10-12lbs or so), in a car that was revving 10,000 rpms or less. 

The flywheels used in cars are very different than those used for energy storage.  See e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flywheel_energy_storage
Quote
When the tensile strength of a composite flywheel's outer binding cover is exceeded, the binding cover will fracture, followed by the wheel shattering as the outer wheel compression is lost around the entire circumference, releasing all of its stored energy at once; this is commonly referred to as "flywheel explosion" since wheel fragments can reach kinetic energy comparable to that of a bullet. Composite materials that are wound and glued in layers tend to disintegrate quickly, first into small-diameter filaments that entangle and slow each other, and then into red-hot powder, instead of large chunks of high-velocity shrapnel as can occur with a cast metal flywheel.

Translated:  Bomb

thepokercab

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Wait, I thought jet packs and flying cars were the future!   

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/05/01/flying-car-expedite-morning-commute/#.U2rJQ_ldUxE

At $280,000 a pop though, it might take a while to really catch on. 

Jamesqf

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Translated:  Bomb

Honestly, don't you think people test these things?  Read the link, and look at other info.  A disintegrating high-speed flywheel is a heck of a lot less dangerous than a tank of gasoline.

DoctorOctagon

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Strictly speaking, cars dramatically depreciate enough already....

When GM, Honda, and Ford release 300+ mile range budget electric vehicles that are under $30,000 new, the world will change (bye bye TSLA).

warfreak2

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Strictly speaking, cars dramatically depreciate enough already....

When GM, Honda, and Ford release 300+ mile range budget electric vehicles that are under $30,000 new, the world will change (bye bye TSLA).
Who's to say Tesla won't beat them to it?

Besides, don't neglect the power of branding and conspicuous consumption. If Honda came out with a budget sports car which was largely identical to a Lamborghini, there's no way it would put Lamborghini out of business. $30k cars just don't draw much of the market away from $90k cars, regardless of the cars' specifications. Tesla cars may not be a status symbol for the ultra-rich, but the ultra-rich aren't the only ones who buy status symbols.

rocketpj

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My understanding is that Tesla is planning to bring a 'moderate' priced EV to market by 2016 (~35K).  Not moderate by moustachian standards, but a giant step in the right direction.

I think the math is a bit different here in BC than elsewhere.  Gas at the pump today was $1.52/litre, which translates to $5.75/gallon in your wacky US measurements.  A switch to electric gets very attractive as the price of gas goes up (electricity is also fairly cheap here).

I'm not about to sell my car and borrow money to buy an EV, and my little Accent has another half dozen years left in it at least, but I have already decided my next car will be electric.

98% of my driving could be done easily with 100 km of range.  The other 2% could be done handily with 200km of range - in the 5 years I've owned our current car we've taken a longer trip by car exactly never.

I'll swap the occasional inconvenient 30 minute stop to recharge at an EV station over a far too regular and always inconvenient 5 minute stop at a gas station for another $50 that could be put to better use.

Has anyone done any back of napkin calculations on the long-term costing of an EV over an ICE after 10 years.  Would a larger up front cost be sufficiently offset by the dramatically lower 'fuel' cost and (apparently) much lower maintenance costs?  How long would that take?  Not with the Tesla, which is eyewateringly expensive right now, but a Leaf or a Volt?

edatoakrun

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Could anyone anticipate a situation in the next decade where the cost of gasoline rises high enough, the availability/cost of electric vehicles, the accessibility of charging stations, and the taxation of gasoline/incentives for renewables/rebates for electrics becomes so dramatic that gasoline cars become just essentially useless?...

Actually, I had already come close to reaching that conclusion over three years ago, and bought a new 2011 Nissan LEAF.

I had never bought a new vehicle before, but California and federal incentives brought the net price down to ~$21k. The LEAF's retail resale value ~three years and ~28K miles later is ~$15k today.

Offsetting that ~6k of depreciation is ~$4k of fuel cost savings, as my energy-efficient home's electricity bill actually declined slightly (even though the LEAF uses ~300kWh a month additionally, charging at night) due to my switching to PG&E's E-9 Time-of-use rate.

Total maintenance costs to date have been ~$60, but it will need the first major maintenance cost (new tires) soon.

So I got to own and drive a very nice new car for three years for about ~$2k net, which I believe is considerably less than the total maintenance and depreciation (even cheap old cars get older and cheaper) of the ~5-10 year old ICEV alternative I could have bought.

If I were buying a BEV today I would be shopping used (I didn't have the used option to consider in 2011, of course) as I expect the ownership costs of a used BEV to be lower than new, just as always has been the case for ICEVs.

But there are some places where National and regional incentives push new (net) BEV prices so low, buying new still makes financial sense today.





« Last Edit: June 19, 2014, 09:01:33 PM by edatoakrun »

beltim

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I just came across this bit of data, that only about 40% of Americans have a wall outlet within 20 feet of where there car is parked: http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2009/state_briefs/pdf/ma.pdf

This supports my earlier statement that electric cars won't replace all gasoline cars anytime soon -- most Americans do not have the capability to charge electric cars where they live.

rocketpj

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I just came across this bit of data, that only about 40% of Americans have a wall outlet within 20 feet of where there car is parked: http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2009/state_briefs/pdf/ma.pdf

This supports my earlier statement that electric cars won't replace all gasoline cars anytime soon -- most Americans do not have the capability to charge electric cars where they live.

Is it possible that 40% of Americans have never heard of an extension cord?

I know that most of Canada has exterior plugs almost everywhere for block heaters in the winter, I imagine that applies in the cold parts of the US as well.

Apartments present an issue, but not much of one - I know Tesla's supercharger system should cover most of North America within a couple years.  But anyone in a house can surely manage an extension cord (or take the first 3 months of gas savings and run some electrical).

beltim

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I just came across this bit of data, that only about 40% of Americans have a wall outlet within 20 feet of where there car is parked: http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2009/state_briefs/pdf/ma.pdf

This supports my earlier statement that electric cars won't replace all gasoline cars anytime soon -- most Americans do not have the capability to charge electric cars where they live.

Is it possible that 40% of Americans have never heard of an extension cord?
No.

Quote
I know that most of Canada has exterior plugs almost everywhere for block heaters in the winter, I imagine that applies in the cold parts of the US as well.

Apartments present an issue, but not much of one - I know Tesla's supercharger system should cover most of North America within a couple years.  But anyone in a house can surely manage an extension cord (or take the first 3 months of gas savings and run some electrical).

You're drastically underestimating the difficulties involved with an apartment.

innkeeper77

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Flywheel debate: while they have a lot of physical momentum, and that can cause problems in failures, the handling effects can be minimized or eliminated through simple means, no complicated control gimbals etc. Like a quad-copter does, simply use multiple smaller flywheels that are placed in a way to counteract each others effects, through positioning and counter-rotation. (One spins one way, the other spins the other way- and you no longer tip to the side)
 Now, this is a more expensive and bulky solution, but it is simple.

Fun fact, powerful engines (or very light cars with average ones) being run hard can cause torque steer- a similar problem.

MoneyCat

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Eventually, gasoline-powered cars are going to be obselete.  The battery issue has been solved in laboratories now, so it's just a matter of mass producing the fast charging batteries and economy of scale will take care of the rest.  Personally, I'm planning to get in ahead of the curve.  When the new lower-cost Tesla comes out in 2017, we're getting one and we'll have solar panels installed on our garage's roof to provide the electricity.  I will keep using my gasoline/electric hybrid until then.

DarinC

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Obviously EVs aren't going to compete with FF cars on long distance trips assuming similar designs because batteries weigh a lot. A compact car can't tow 20k lbs, but not everyone needs to tow 20k pounds, or drive 900 miles.. Different vehicles are designed for different functions in different ways.

With that said, FF cars are going to have a hard time competing with EVs for normal'ish commutes because battery/component costs are rapidly dropping, assuming they can plug in.

Back of the pad indicates that over ~200k miles, a new Mitsubishi i-MiEV at ~$15000 after tax credits/rebates will cost as much as a used first gen Honda Insight at $5000. And that's with me doing all my own work on the Honda and one battery replacement. Most people would pay a lot more on maintenance for the used hybrid.

Gas prices are high enough that EVs have an opening in terms of maintenance/fuel costs. That might change if gas prices drop, but I don't see that happening any time soon.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2014, 10:53:37 AM by DarinC »

BlueMR2

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Is it possible that 40% of Americans have never heard of an extension cord?

I know that most of Canada has exterior plugs almost everywhere for block heaters in the winter, I imagine that applies in the cold parts of the US as well.

Nevermind the insertion loss requirement on an extension cord, running an extension cord out in the rain doesn't sound safe.  Do they have special water proof connectors and cords for this application?

Christof

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Does technology really matter?

What if you pay a fixed monthly amount and get unlimited mobility like free public transport, taxis, rental cars, bikes, ships, flights, whatever you need to move between two points in a country?

In Germany we had a card that allowed unlimited use of long distance train. Then they added regional public transport for most cities. Then they added a number of free hours and rebates for car rental and bike rental. Music, films, books, telephones... They used to be paid by usage, now they are just a fixed monthly fee (whether subscriptions or libraries).

DarinC

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What's the monthly fee?

Christof

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Between $460 and $870 per month per adult. So still way too expensive unless you need to commute by train. It does not include unlimited car rentals yet, but I expect this to be one of the future steps given that the train operator also owns a car sharing business and a bike rental.

Nothlit

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I just came across this bit of data, that only about 40% of Americans have a wall outlet within 20 feet of where there car is parked: http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2009/state_briefs/pdf/ma.pdf

This supports my earlier statement that electric cars won't replace all gasoline cars anytime soon -- most Americans do not have the capability to charge electric cars where they live.

Is it possible that 40% of Americans have never heard of an extension cord?

I know that most of Canada has exterior plugs almost everywhere for block heaters in the winter, I imagine that applies in the cold parts of the US as well.

Apartments present an issue, but not much of one - I know Tesla's supercharger system should cover most of North America within a couple years.  But anyone in a house can surely manage an extension cord (or take the first 3 months of gas savings and run some electrical).

I live in an apartment in New England. There are no outdoor plugs at my complex. Even if there were, wouldn't they typically be 120V, which would take forever to charge an electric car? Also, the owner of the apartment complex isn't going to want to subsidize everyone's driving costs, so there would have to be some way to individually meter each outlet. It's not a simple problem.

My workplace does have a few electric car charging stations which are owned by ChargePoint or one of those similar companies, but they charge a flat rate of $2.50 per hour as long as you are plugged in, regardless of whether electricity is actually flowing. I think I've only ever seen one car plugged in there.

Tesla's supercharger stations are going to be placed in locations that are conducive to recharging along road trips -- like at highway rest areas and such. I don't think they will be as prevalent as gas stations are today, at least not for a very very long time. There are literally a dozen gas stations within a 10-minute drive of my home. I predict that even once superchargers "cover North America" you would still probably have to drive 30-60 minutes to reach the nearest one.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 05:23:44 AM by Nothlit »

Thegoblinchief

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I'll stick with my bike, the ultimate flex fuel vehicle!

GuitarStv

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A bike is also never going to be the way you take your newborn home from the hospital... in the rain... for just one example.

Pffft.  Challenge accepted.

Thegoblinchief

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A bike is also never going to be the way you take your newborn home from the hospital... in the rain... for just one example.

Pffft.  Challenge accepted.

Bakfiets with a rain canopy and appropriate gear in the box for an infant carrier. One potential way to solve that challenge :P

DarinC

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Between $460 and $870 per month per adult. So still way too expensive unless you need to commute by train. It does not include unlimited car rentals yet, but I expect this to be one of the future steps given that the train operator also owns a car sharing business and a bike rental.
That is a bit pricey, but going forward it might be pretty competitive. It'd be nice to just pay a subscription and have access to different modes of transportation. I'd totally pay $300 if I could access unlimited (and reasonably fast) public transportation as well as ~5000+ miles worth of driving in compact/midsize cars and ~1000 miles of hauling stuff in a truck.

lakemom

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So, in the US, where is all the lovely "clean" electricity to run these cars 'cheaply' going to come from?  We are already shutting down our coal powered plants, blocking the implementation of new nuclear plants, and trying to stop the fracking that is providing the natural gas that runs many of our electric plants.  Combine that with the fact that in real world implementation of both wind and solar has fallen fall short of expectations and cheap clean energy seems much further off than affordable electric cars.  Does no one realize that free market principles will take effect if "suddenly" everyone was driving an electric car.  As demand goes up so does price and in the case of electricity where it takes years (if not decades) to plan, obtain approval for, and build a power plant a dramatic increase in power usage is going to cause a dramatic shift in power costs thus making the numbers less attractive than they are now AND causing the cost of running your home to be dramatically higher too.

Christof

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My impression is that in the US you are doing better than we do in Germany... We are actually increasing coal plants, because solar and wind do not provide steady energy, we are shutting down nuclear power stations, can't afford gas, don't have the land for masses of corn fields and no space for damms. But we do have coal.

DarinC

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In general that's probably true. Germany doesn't have a lot of area and can't see many of the benefits of distributed renewables in terms of matching grid output to demand that other grids can see. In the US we generate ~3,800 billion kWh of electricity and of that ~500 billion kWh is via renewable energy. Hydro makes up the bulk of that at ~250 billion kWh, but the rest are growing quickly and the EIA expects all renewables to reach ~800 billion kWh per year by 2035.

That's not fast enough IMO, but an increase of ~300 billion kWh is enough electricity to supply ~.-9-1.2 trillion miles of EV driving in mid/full size cars. The US currently drives ~3 trillion miles/year, so it's feasible for us to match EV adoption with renewable growth if we increase the use of wind/solar power. A large EV fleet that can plug-in at home/work also makes it far easier to integrate renewable energy into the grid, since the fleet in the aggregate can act as a big battery and mitigate hourly swings in energy production.

Anyhoo... a fleet of EVs would realistically require us to increase electricity generation maybe ~10-20%, depending on how many EVs/what kind of EVs we were using. The bigger concern IMO is replacing existing coal and natural gas with renewable energy so that we can minimize the long run costs of climate change.