Author Topic: (Dramatic) depreciation of all gasoline cars when electrics become affordable  (Read 30809 times)

hatersgonnahate

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Could anyone anticipate a situation in the next decade where the cost of gasoline rises high enough, the availability/cost of electric vehicles, the accessibility of charging stations, and the taxation of gasoline/incentives for renewables/rebates for electrics becomes so dramatic that gasoline cars become just essentially useless? Right now a "mustachian" car is a 5,000 dollar used sedan/hatchback. But I just went on the Nissan Leaf website and found out that a Leaf will save me 1200/yr over my already "mustachian" car. Plugged into a compounding interest calculator at 6%, these savings would pay off a new electric car over 10 years compared to my car. This is not accounting for the savings in maintenance or the future increases in the price of gasoline. I may not need a car for 2-3 years and was considering selling mine while it is still worth that amount, investing it, and then switching over to electric in a few years in anticipation of this happening (going to school). My mustachian car was an improvement over my gas guzzler but it feels like a gas guzzler now when I work these numbers.

beltim

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In short, no. Since I moved out of my parents house, I've never lived in a place where I could charge an electric vehicle at night. And no place I've worked has had facilities to charge an electric vehicle. Until substantially everyone has access to a place to charge their vehicles, ICE cars won't become worthless.

beltim

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If you think you won't use a car for 2-3 years, I'd sell it.  Cars do need to be used every so often to stay in good shape, and although I don't know how often that is, I suspect if you only used it every 6 months or so there's potential for problems.  Besides, it's probably cheaper to take a taxi every 6 months if you needed it instead of paying for insurance, registration, and other fixed costs just for owning the car.

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A year ago I would have said that this was likely. However, last year, the company that was putting charging points in several countries (including Australia - where several governments had given them money) stopped (did they become bankrupt? - anyway I don't think the government will get its money back). This has set back electric cars in Australia by about 5 years, and I think, elsewhere.

That said, we do have a number of charge points in the city where I live, so people can have electric cars here. Unfortunately it is a bit pointless for me. Almost all my driving is for 7 1/2 hours to my parent's place and back - I don't usually need to fill up during the 2 weeks between trips, even though the car comes back just about empty.

I had been eagerly awaiting the rollout, so I could go electric. The LEAF is also frightfully expensive here.

Mr. Frugalwoods

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If you won't be using a car much in the near future, get rid of it now.  Cars like to be driven regularly.  And even used cars depreciate over time.

Who knows, in 10 years we may all be riding hydrogen huffing semi-sentient google unicorns.

beltim

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Unfortunately it is a bit pointless for me. Almost all my driving is for 7 1/2 hours to my parent's place and back - I don't usually need to fill up during the 2 weeks between trips, even though the car comes back just about empty.

This is the other reason I don't see the OP's scenario happening any time soon.  No EV has anywhere close to the range that I'd need before buying it.

hatersgonnahate

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A year ago I would have said that this was likely. However, last year, the company that was putting charging points in several countries (including Australia - where several governments had given them money) stopped (did they become bankrupt? - anyway I don't think the government will get its money back). This has set back electric cars in Australia by about 5 years, and I think, elsewhere.

That said, we do have a number of charge points in the city where I live, so people can have electric cars here. Unfortunately it is a bit pointless for me. Almost all my driving is for 7 1/2 hours to my parent's place and back - I don't usually need to fill up during the 2 weeks between trips, even though the car comes back just about empty.

I had been eagerly awaiting the rollout, so I could go electric. The LEAF is also frightfully expensive here.

A123? But there's Tesla. Everyone here in the US loves Tesla. Everyone wants one. Few can afford it. But that may change very soon. Especially in California, they are everywhere. What they say in the US is "so goes CA so goes the US" or something like that. I think the world could change dramatically in the next few years. Electric cars are only becoming cheaper, gas is only becoming more expensive. Batteries are only getting more capacity and the planet is only getting hotter. Something has to give.

Lans Holman

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Also totally possible that within our lifetimes self-driving cars will become a realistic option.  What would it do to the value of your car if you could easily click a button on your phone and a car would just show up to take you wherever you needed to go, no driver necessary?  It's the kind of thing that will seem ridiculous right up to the moment when it seems inevitable.

Regardless if either of these scenarios ever come to pass, the smart move is always going to be keeping as little equity as possible tied up in your vehicles. 

hatersgonnahate

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Also totally possible that within our lifetimes self-driving cars will become a realistic option.  What would it do to the value of your car if you could easily click a button on your phone and a car would just show up to take you wherever you needed to go, no driver necessary?  It's the kind of thing that will seem ridiculous right up to the moment when it seems inevitable.

Regardless if either of these scenarios ever come to pass, the smart move is always going to be keeping as little equity as possible tied up in your vehicles.

Self-driving cars are a nice idea but besides their (unproven yet) safety advantages is there an economic advantage to them? Doing work in the car while it drives? I don't think it is as dramatic as the efficiency advantage of an electric car or also the maintenance advantage. As this is a money-saving blog I think the electric vs gas issue is and should be far more real to anyone here than driverless cars. Mass-market adoption of electric cars is also, from what it seems, much closer to the present.

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One of the things that contributes to the relative affordability of electric cars at present is the rebates and tax credits available to those that purchase them. There are no guarantees that this will still be the case in 2 to 3 years. Conversely there could be more rebates and incentives.  The price could rise with demand or drop with increased competition and volume. Why try to predict the future? I’d just sell the car as a depreciating asset as soon as you don’t need it, and then decide what to replace it with as you get closer to needing one again.

agent_clone

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It depends on what you use your car for.  Part of the use of cars and trucks in Australia is for those long range trips. (e.g. the 7.5 hour trip a previous poster takes).  If your living in the country then depending on where your living it can take hours to get anywhere.  Filling up with petrol takes a few minutes, versus how long for electric?

I could however see a market for electric that charge both by solar and by charge station, so that you can take long range trips, however these would no doubt have issues with things like hail.

From my point of view one of the issues with electric cars (aside from the initial cost and battery replacement cost) is their range. FYI time taken drive between some capital cities in Australia: Canberra to Sydney - 3 hours, Canberra to Melbourne - 7 hours, Adelaide to Melbourne - 8 hours, Sydney to Brisbane - 10.5 hours, Adelaide to Perth - 28 hours, Adelaide to Darwin - 35 hours.  Admittedly for most of these I wouldn't drive rather I would take a plan, but if you want to go to a country area this is not possible.  e.g. To go to the coast from Canberra it will take about 2 1/4 hours, To the snow 2 - 3 hours these places don't have airports.

Roland of Gilead

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The energy density of gasoline is about 36kwh per gallon.  A gallon weighs about 8 pounds.

Diesel is even better.

The best Lithium battery is what, 400 watts per kg or about 1.5kwh per 8 pounds?

I think your ICE car is safe for a few more years.

hatersgonnahate

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It depends on what you use your car for.  Part of the use of cars and trucks in Australia is for those long range trips. (e.g. the 7.5 hour trip a previous poster takes).  If your living in the country then depending on where your living it can take hours to get anywhere.  Filling up with petrol takes a few minutes, versus how long for electric?

I could however see a market for electric that charge both by solar and by charge station, so that you can take long range trips, however these would no doubt have issues with things like hail.

From my point of view one of the issues with electric cars (aside from the initial cost and battery replacement cost) is their range. FYI time taken drive between some capital cities in Australia: Canberra to Sydney - 3 hours, Canberra to Melbourne - 7 hours, Adelaide to Melbourne - 8 hours, Sydney to Brisbane - 10.5 hours, Adelaide to Perth - 28 hours, Adelaide to Darwin - 35 hours.  Admittedly for most of these I wouldn't drive rather I would take a plan, but if you want to go to a country area this is not possible.  e.g. To go to the coast from Canberra it will take about 2 1/4 hours, To the snow 2 - 3 hours these places don't have airports.

Half a "tank" in a Tesla takes 30 minutes? Well hopefully I won't have a car commute in the future as I plan on using a bike. In the event that I do an electric car on the market currently would satisfy my needs. In the event that I would want to take a trip, I think I would either have to rent or go with a friend. If my friends don't have gasoline cars then they will have electric cars and then it would be likely that there would be charging stations everywhere.

It just seems like there will come a point in the near future when there will be a shift from gas to electric. I think it may happen fast and I don't want to be caught with a gas car when it does. I'll probably sell my car soon.

hatersgonnahate

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The energy density of gasoline is about 36kwh per gallon.  A gallon weighs about 8 pounds.

Diesel is even better.

The best Lithium battery is what, 400 watts per kg or about 1.5kwh per 8 pounds?

I think your ICE car is safe for a few more years.

What is the weight of a gasoline engine and transmission compared to an electric? What is the % of battery energy converted to kinetic energy in an electric compared to gasoline? See: Tesla Model S.

Lithium-ion batteries are only getting better.

Roland of Gilead

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The energy density of gasoline is about 36kwh per gallon.  A gallon weighs about 8 pounds.

Diesel is even better.

The best Lithium battery is what, 400 watts per kg or about 1.5kwh per 8 pounds?

I think your ICE car is safe for a few more years.

What is the weight of a gasoline engine and transmission compared to an electric? What is the % of battery energy converted to kinetic energy in an electric compared to gasoline? See: Tesla Model S.

Lithium-ion batteries are only getting better.

Oh for sure they are and eventually will be the future of all cars but not in the next decade or two.  The new diesels that Europe has been using and bass ackwards USA is finally getting around to importing are amazing though.   900 miles on a tank...a Tesla can't touch that.

beltim

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The energy density of gasoline is about 36kwh per gallon.  A gallon weighs about 8 pounds.

Diesel is even better.

The best Lithium battery is what, 400 watts per kg or about 1.5kwh per 8 pounds?

I think your ICE car is safe for a few more years.

What is the weight of a gasoline engine and transmission compared to an electric? What is the % of battery energy converted to kinetic energy in an electric compared to gasoline? See: Tesla Model S.

Lithium-ion batteries are only getting better.

Roland was addressing the issue of range. The longest range all-EV that I know of has a range of 265 miles and costs >$70k. Until electric cars can actually transport passengers where they want to go, and are price competitive with ICE vehicles, there's no chance of electric vehicles dominating. Yes, there are advances all the time in these areas, but it won't happen anytime soon.

hatersgonnahate

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The energy density of gasoline is about 36kwh per gallon.  A gallon weighs about 8 pounds.

Diesel is even better.

The best Lithium battery is what, 400 watts per kg or about 1.5kwh per 8 pounds?

I think your ICE car is safe for a few more years.

What is the weight of a gasoline engine and transmission compared to an electric? What is the % of battery energy converted to kinetic energy in an electric compared to gasoline? See: Tesla Model S.

Lithium-ion batteries are only getting better.

Oh for sure they are and eventually will be the future of all cars but not in the next decade or two.  The new diesels that Europe has been using and bass ackwards USA is finally getting around to importing are amazing though.   900 miles on a tank...a Tesla can't touch that.

Can you use biodiesel with it? Or are we still buying oil?

While that is impressive I think electrics can really out-do any petroleum car as they have enough range already (300 miles and getting better) and less maintenance.

Finally knowing your car's use (minus manufacturing) will not be releasing greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere is peace of mind I will pay a premium for.

Advantages of electric cars: non-toxic lithium vs flammable, carcinogenic gasoline; charge from home; cheaper to run, tax incentives, less maintenance (oil changes, brakes, less moving parts)
« Last Edit: April 25, 2014, 07:37:46 PM by hatersgonnahate »

Roland of Gilead

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Specifically:  "The Audi A3 1.6 TDI Ultra, which is available as a three-door compact or a five-door Sportback, has a range of 932 miles"

That is amazing.  Not a hybrid or anything, just a pure ICE that can travel across the USA on 3 tanks.

hatersgonnahate

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Specifically:  "The Audi A3 1.6 TDI Ultra, which is available as a three-door compact or a five-door Sportback, has a range of 932 miles"

That is amazing.  Not a hybrid or anything, just a pure ICE that can travel across the USA on 3 tanks.

That is pretty cool. Also check out the V60 plug-in.

BlueMR2

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Gas would have to become insanely expensive to make it worthwhile.    The panel in my house doesn't have enough current to charge an electric car in anything resembling a reasonable time period.  Re-wiring is pricy.

By the time that happens, I expect that the cars will be autonomous and few will own one at all anymore.  It'll be a monthly service.  Recurring service fees are the new economy and once cars are autonomous that model will work well.  You just tell your smartphone when you need a car and where you're going and for a "low $800 a month fee" some company will make sure one arrives and shuttles you around as needed.

I actually see that scenario as being more likely to happen in 10 years than a wholesale shift to electric.  Maybe both will happen at the same time if battery energy density gets high enough for "service cars" to be on the road for 18 hours a day, then back to the next for recharge/maintenance.

Zette

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I saw a stat somewhere once that it takes about 20 years for the majority of the US fleet of cars to "turn over".  It was in the context of how long it takes for improvements in emissions, fuel efficiency, safety features etc. to fully percolate through all the cars on the road.  There's a lot of old beaters out there you just may not notice in the area you live.

So I'd say your timeframe is more likely to be at least 10-15 years away.

MrFancypants

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It's not going to happen in the next decade without a lot of advancement in battery technology.  Both from a capacity standpoint and a charging standpoint.

At the moment they're just not good enough for people who are much beyond golf cart range.

What's more likely to happen first is that more vehicles will start to use the type of hybrid technology where the gasoline engine is completely separated from the driven wheels and is used purely to charge the batteries.

Jack

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Specifically:  "The Audi A3 1.6 TDI Ultra, which is available as a three-door compact or a five-door Sportback, has a range of 932 miles"

That is amazing.  Not a hybrid or anything, just a pure ICE that can travel across the USA on 3 tanks.

That's nothing. A fourth generation VW Passat wagon TDI (a "B4V" in VW-speak) can go closer to 1200 miles, driven carefully. And yes, it can run 100% biodiesel (unlike the newfangled "clean diesels" built since 2007).

CarDude

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I saw a stat somewhere once that it takes about 20 years for the majority of the US fleet of cars to "turn over".  It was in the context of how long it takes for improvements in emissions, fuel efficiency, safety features etc. to fully percolate through all the cars on the road.  There's a lot of old beaters out there you just may not notice in the area you live.

So I'd say your timeframe is more likely to be at least 10-15 years away.

Yup. ESC first became available as an option in US vehicles in 1995, but didn't become a standard requirement for US vehicles until 2012. Considering that it has the ability to cut single vehicle fatal crashes by half, you can imagine how many thousands of people needlessly died in the close to 20 years it took for the feature to become standardized.

Thegoblinchief

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Battery chemistry and electric motor design, more specifically, sustainable design without the use of rare-earths - THAT is a huge limit.

Graphene and super capacitors may do it, but I'm doubtful except over the extreme long term.

Whatever happened to hydrogen ICE cars? BMW had a working 3-series years ago.

TomTX

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Half a "tank" in a Tesla takes 30 minutes? Well hopefully I won't have a car commute in the future as I plan on using a bike. In the event that I do an electric car on the market currently would satisfy my needs. In the event that I would want to take a trip, I think I would either have to rent or go with a friend. If my friends don't have gasoline cars then they will have electric cars and then it would be likely that there would be charging stations everywhere.

Long distance trips are the main weak point on electrics. For everyday use, you never spend time charging them (unlike going to the gas station.) You plug in when you get home at night and the charge is full the next morning. With a 240V/40A circuit, which is dead simple for an electrician to add to 99% of breaker boxes.


Whatever happened to hydrogen ICE cars? BMW had a working 3-series years ago.

Three main problems with hydrogen cars:

1) Onboard storage. Nobody really has a reliable hydrogen storage system which is ready to be rolled out en-masse to cars.

2) There are no hydrogen wells. You're mostly burning hydrogen extracted from natural gas - with the added energy losses from the conversion. Might as well burn natural gas directly. UPS is starting on this: http://www.lngglobal.com/lng-for-fuel/ups-to-purchase-700-lng-tractors.html

3) Infrastructure. There is nowhere to fill up your hydrogen car. For electrics - electricity is everywhere. Sure, many plugs will be slow, but it's THERE, and faster chargers are becoming more common. Tesla has enough SuperCharger stations that you can now drive across the country, and never pay for electricity fillups (if you drive a Tesla)

The Happy Philosopher

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If electrics become more widespread this will decrease the demand for gasoline, which will depress gas price and make them more competitive. Also as gas prices rise fuel efficiency of the fleet will rise. Market forces will constantly be present. The system constantly readjusts. This is the same reason peak oil won't be some rapid spiraling doomsday scenario. I can't imagine the internal combustion engine not remaining dominant for decades to come without some crazy disruptive technology. My next car will be an efficient sedan, internal combustion engine.

Jamesqf

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3) Infrastructure. There is nowhere to fill up your hydrogen car.

That is just the least of the problems.  Hydrogen is about the most difficult material there is to store and transport in the quantities needed for automotive fuel.  Store it as a gas, and it takes immense pressures and strong, heavy pressure vessels to contain it.  To store it as a liquid, you need what are essentially giant thermos bottles, and even then it leaks away at a rate of about 1% per day (per Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_hydrogen )  Hate to inject politics, but hydrogen cars as a practical solution were nothing but another Bush Administration lie; something to convince their support base that they could go on exercising their Gawd-given right to drive big SUVs forever.

Jack

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Three main problems with hydrogen cars:

1) Onboard storage. Nobody really has a reliable hydrogen storage system which is ready to be rolled out en-masse to cars.

Sure we do! It's real simple: just chemically combine the hydrogen with some carbon, and then store that.

; )

(In all seriousness, that is what will happen: the future of automobile energy storage post-petroleum is not electricity (via batteries or hydrogen fuel cells), it's synthetic gasoline or diesel (via the Fischer-Tropsch process or similar). If we're lucky, it'll come from biomass or atmospheric CO2 + water. If we're not lucky, it'll come from coal (and the environment be damned).)

Jamesqf

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Three main problems with hydrogen cars:

1) Onboard storage. Nobody really has a reliable hydrogen storage system which is ready to be rolled out en-masse to cars.

Sure we do! It's real simple: just chemically combine the hydrogen with some carbon, and then store that.

Great minds think alike, on this at least.

Quote
(In all seriousness, that is what will happen: the future of automobile energy storage post-petroleum is not electricity (via batteries or hydrogen fuel cells), it's synthetic gasoline or diesel...

Got to disagree there, though.  The problem with internal combustion engines is that they're so damned inefficient, and most of the inefficiency is down to fundamental thermodynamics, so you can't do anything about it.  No, the future (assuming there IS a future: at this point I'm starting to wonder) is fuel cells running off things like alcohol or sugar, or flow batteries using similar feedstocks, like this: http://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2014/01/organic-mega-flow-battery-promises-breakthrough-for-renewable-energy
« Last Edit: April 28, 2014, 11:45:20 AM by Jamesqf »

hatersgonnahate

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Silly everyone, the future is here and it is called a bicycle!

Thegoblinchief

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Silly everyone, the future is here and it is called a bicycle!

And here I was, trying to behave. Sigh.

warfreak2

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Silly everyone, the future is here and it is called a bicycle!
Bicycles and trains. Electric cars are nice, but the electric cars I travel in seat hundreds of people, lose a lower proportion of energy to friction, and aren't powered by big, heavy batteries which have to be carried everywhere they go. You also don't need to keep them next to your house.

ChrisLansing

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I wouldn't sell the present car, even though you don't think you'll need it for 2 to 3 years.     Apparently, you think you will need a car later.    I assume the car is paid for.  I also assume you have a place to park it, for free, or for cheap.      Cars will be fine with a short drive once a month.   Just take it to Costco once a month or something like that.     The car you own now will be the cheapest car you'll ever have.    You can't make enough on investments in 3 years to pay for another car, can you?  (If you can would you share your investment advice?)    Admittedly you are still paying registrations fees and insurance on something you don't use often.    My view may be biased as I'm a "car keeper".    I drive cars 15 years or so before considering replacement.   

The Leaf makes sense only if you're sure you won't be going very far.   If you are sure about that, the leaf is, imo, the most sensible electric on the market currently.     Tesla is absurd, due to high initial cost; it would have to run entirely on happy thoughts and good intentions for it to ever pay off.    The Volt of course gives you the option of driving electric when you like, and having some dino juice available when range is needed at lower cost than the Tesla, though somewhat more than the Leaf. .       




skunkfunk

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Three main problems with hydrogen cars:

1) Onboard storage. Nobody really has a reliable hydrogen storage system which is ready to be rolled out en-masse to cars.

Sure we do! It's real simple: just chemically combine the hydrogen with some carbon, and then store that.

; )

(In all seriousness, that is what will happen: the future of automobile energy storage post-petroleum is not electricity (via batteries or hydrogen fuel cells), it's synthetic gasoline or diesel (via the Fischer-Tropsch process or similar). If we're lucky, it'll come from biomass or atmospheric CO2 + water. If we're not lucky, it'll come from coal (and the environment be damned).)

This. There's nothing environmentally friendly or sustainable about mass production of enormous lithium batteries.

Jamesqf

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Silly everyone, the future is here and it is called a bicycle!

Nothing wrong with a bicycle, if you want to travel less than 100 miles or so a day.  (And honestly, these days a 70-80 mile day is plenty for me.)  Likewise, nothing wrong with trains, if where you want to go happens to be with convenient distance of a track.  (But try to imagine the environmental effects of building tracks everywhere, and the inefficiency of running trains to places only one or two people want to go.)  Or FTM telecommuting for work. 

La Bibliotecaria Feroz

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A bike is also never going to be the way you take your newborn home from the hospital... in the rain... for just one example.

I wonder if in the (distant) future, electric cars will have interchangeable batteries almost like how you drop off an empty propane tank and pick up a new one. For long-distance trips, people used to rent horses and then exchange them for fresh ones at certain intervals. If you could pick up a fresh battery without having to stop and plug in your car, all the disadvantages would be gone.

Roland of Gilead

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A bike is also never going to be the way you take your newborn home from the hospital... in the rain... for just one example.

I wonder if in the (distant) future, electric cars will have interchangeable batteries almost like how you drop off an empty propane tank and pick up a new one. For long-distance trips, people used to rent horses and then exchange them for fresh ones at certain intervals. If you could pick up a fresh battery without having to stop and plug in your car, all the disadvantages would be gone.

Except a propane tank costs about $30 so if you return one that is defective, Blue Rhino doesn't lose out on too much money.

A 60kwh battery costs $20,000+.  I am not going to be too happy if I swap my new but depleted battery out for a recharged used one without some extensive guarantees.  What will have to happen is you don't own your battery, you rent it.  The rent on a $20,000 battery is going to be pretty pricey...probably more per month than you now pay for gas per month.

Thegoblinchief

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I wrote an article a couple years back about a startup in Israel that had cars with drop out batteries and automatic battery swapping stations. The stations were fully robotic.

At the time I wrote it, they had a few stations up, but no idea where it's gone from there.

Roland of Gilead

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Spork

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Except a propane tank costs about $30 so if you return one that is defective, Blue Rhino doesn't lose out on too much money.


Well... that and the fact they generally charge 2x the going rate for propane...

Jamesqf

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A 60kwh battery costs $20,000+.

And an original IBM PC - 4.77 MHz processor, 64K memory, and 360Kbyte floppy drive - cost around $3000 in 1982 dollars.  Improvements in tech and economies of scale.

Roland of Gilead

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A 60kwh battery costs $20,000+.

And an original IBM PC - 4.77 MHz processor, 64K memory, and 360Kbyte floppy drive - cost around $3000 in 1982 dollars.  Improvements in tech and economies of scale.

Except I don't think mechanics works on Moore's law.  Otherwise we would all be using hoverboards by now.

More realistic is to look at battery improvement in power tools over the past 20 years.  NiCad, NiMH, now Lithium Polymer.  It is only maybe 4x improvement from first to last over 20 years.  So the $20,000 battery might be $5,000 in the year 2034.

sol

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To the OP, I was in a similar position a few years ago with my car, and I mistakenly opted to keep it "just in case."  I didn't drive it for like three months, and when I finally went out to check on it the battery needed to be replaced (not just charged, replaced) and the tires weren't round anymore. 

In retrospect, I should have just sold it and banked the value and then planned to buy another car when the time finally came.  Instead the car depreciated an extra model year and I continued to pay insurance and registration on a car I wasn't using. 

Combined with an uncertain time frame until you will need wheels again, keeping it around doesn't make much sense.  It will never be worth more than it is today, so sell it to the first person to offer you the right price.  Keep the money on hand to buy another used car some day.  In the meantime, stop eating the depreciation and start earning a return on the cash value by investing the sale price.

Jack

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Got to disagree there, though.  The problem with internal combustion engines is that they're so damned inefficient, and most of the inefficiency is down to fundamental thermodynamics, so you can't do anything about it.  No, the future (assuming there IS a future: at this point I'm starting to wonder) is fuel cells running off things like alcohol or sugar, or flow batteries using similar feedstocks, like this: http://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2014/01/organic-mega-flow-battery-promises-breakthrough-for-renewable-energy

The transportable storage capacity matters more than the efficiency. If you need 100 kWh of energy to go 400 miles, then it's easier to store 100 / 33%1 = 300 kWh worth of energy in 9 gallons of gasoline than it is to store 100 / 80%2 = 120 kWh worth of energy in 1750 pounds of lithium-ion batteries or 100 / 80% / 60%3 = 200 kWh worth of hydrogen in 70 gallons of 4300-psi pressure tanks. (Your article on "flow batteries" didn't give any storage density numbers. If it had, I would have done the math for it too.)

And by the way, we haven't even talked about how much more the batteries or fancy high-pressure canister and fuel cell cost compared to a plain old gasoline fuel tank yet!

1, 2: Gasoline engines are 33% efficient; electric motors are 80% efficient
3: Fuel cells are 60% efficient, plus fuel cell vehicles still use an electric motor

Roland of Gilead

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Turbo diesels are close to 50% efficient so for your example you would only need 200kwh of diesel which would be around 6 gallons and diesel is 7.2 pounds per gallon so 43 pounds of fuel vs thousand of pounds of batteries.   Now the diesel engine is going to be around 1000 pounds so it is probably close to break even with the battery powered car slightly heavier.

Jamesqf

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Gasoline engines are 33% efficient...

That's only when running at optimum BSFC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_specific_fuel_consumption ).  In actual use, automotive engines are greatly oversized (to provide power for brief periods of acceleration), and si spend little if any time running close to optimum.  Practical efficiency in probably closer to 15-20%.  That's a big factor in why hybrids can get much better mpg: their engines can be smaller, and spend more time running closer to optimum.

msilenus

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I'm holding out for inductive charging to be deployed into the roads so the batteries only need to store 20 or so miles of charge to make range effectively infinite.

*Takes deep breath, starts holding...*


Jack

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Roland: the 1.9L 4-cylinder turbo diesel in my VW weighs only about 200 lbs.

Roland and Jamesqf: my 33% efficiency figure for gasoline may have been a little optimistic (although I was thinking of state-of-the-art engines like Mazda's Skyactiv or Ford's Ecoboost, not the average.) However, folks on the TDIclub forums claim TDIs can hit 34% in real-world driving (or 41% at optimum BSFC), so maybe my numbers work better for diesel. (It doesn't really matter though; my point was to illustrate the huge gap between liquid hydrocarbons and everything else).

Roland of Gilead

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Jack:  So 200 pounds engine, 150 pounds diesel, 300 pounds transmission would be reasonable to assume?

Compare that to the best Lithium batteries and you would need over 3 tons of batteries to travel a similar distance (800 miles on a tank).

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!